JD and the opt out

Danny_Darwin

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Don't worry, I'm not going to talk about whether or not it benefits the team or not. But I do think this will be one of the more significant stories hanging over the Red Sox between now and November, and, since it came up in the "Down on the Farm" thread, and it's been a slow news week, I figured why not see if there's a discussion worth having. If nothing else, this can be a place to talk about his performance over the course of the unofficial second half and how it will affect his decision-making.

For what it's worth, he was asked about it during All-Star week, and basically said he has no idea what he's going to do. He says he wants to stay, but, what else would he say? Dombrowski, who's usually pretty upfront about things, also said they're not really considering an extension at this time, although obviously that could change.

He's having a pretty good year, not quite at last year's level, and the market for his services would be pretty different than even last year, so that's two factors right there. But it's something to keep an eye on for now.
 

DeadlySplitter

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He’s had worse nagging back issues this year than last. He’s going to rapidly become DH only and already was a below average fielder. He shouldn’t find better than 3/75 as a DH, but Boras could convince him he can, or some dumb team would.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think they'll resign him for something like 4/$100M. I doubt anyone will offer him more than 20M per but DD must know they got a ton of value for him last year
 

moondog80

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I've never thought he was going to opt out. He didn't have many suitors last time around, and now he'll be two years older, and two years more of a DH. I think it would be very risky for him.

This is true. It's also true that he was still regarded as something of a fluke last time around, and that won't be the case now. With the very-good-but-not-great first half he had, I think he's on the cusp, let's see what happens the rest of the way.
 

NDame616

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I don't think he opts out nor the Sox extend him. Extending a 32 year old DH with a recurring back problem seems like a bad idea
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I think he stays one more year. Believe he's scheduled to make the same next year as he did this year and last, and after next year his salary drops quite a bit. Just a hunch
 

brandonchristensen

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I think they'll resign him for something like 4/$100M. I doubt anyone will offer him more than 20M per but DD must know they got a ton of value for him last year
I hope they don't increase his salary if the market doesn't dictate it. I'd be surprised if they give him a raise coming off a down year.
 

E5 Yaz

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They're under zero pressure to give him even more money. Why would, or should they?

He's not going to get a bigger contract should he opt out; but, if he wants to test the market, thanks for being a big part in the fourth title in 14 years.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I hope they don't increase his salary if the market doesn't dictate it. I'd be surprised if they give him a raise coming off a down year.
I agree with you about not increasing the salary, but he’s on pace to hit .304 with like 35 home runs. Not as good as last year, but hardly a down year
 

chawson

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The Yankees are losing Gardner and Encarnacion, the White Sox were shut out of free agency last year and have to replace Abreu, and the Astros could use a DH once they trade Reddick and move Alvarez to the outfield. I think there may be competition for JDM.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees are losing Gardner and Encarnacion, the White Sox were shut out of free agency last year and have to replace Abreu, and the Astros could use a DH once they trade Reddick and move Alvarez to the outfield. I think there may be competition for JDM.
I mean, those guys don't all just vanish, if they are leaving, they need destinations. As of now, I think NY will resign Gardner (and they still have Clint Frazier and Andujar for now), they will probably let Encarnacion go but I don't see them in on JDM. Chicago really likes Abreu, so he might re-sign there, and Houston doesn't like to sign big FA deals plus they have Cole up for FA who they probably want to keep and will have to spend big for if they do. If anything, I think they would prefer to keep Alvarez at DH, but they have Tucker itching for a OF spot and waiting in AAA also.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Of course the Yankees will go after JDM; he'd probably hit 15 short porch HR a season and will replace Encarnacion as the strict DH. Not looking into him would be GM malpractice for a team that appears poised to go on a long run of being a contender, plus it would really hurt their biggest division rival. And they clearly have the pieces, as illustrated by their early season dominance despite being a M*A*S*H* unit fielding a lot of AAA players, to make deals to shed some salaries and restock with shrewd moves.

If JDM opts out and wants to go where the money is, I can't see the Yankees passing on him.

If the roles were reversed and JDM was in a position to leave the Yankees and the Red Sox had Encarnaction and Gardner on expiring deals, I'd be really upset if Dombrowski didn't dial JDM's agent to talk shop.
 

j44thor

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NYY have to consider Judge as their long-term DH. As good as he is in the OF there is little chance of his body holding up and he'll be 28 next year. If they want him healthy for the next 5-8yrs DH is his spot. Keep him in the OF and I'll be surprised if he lasts 3 more years full time. MLB is simply not a sport for guys Gronk's size.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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NYY have to consider Judge as their long-term DH. As good as he is in the OF there is little chance of his body holding up and he'll be 28 next year. If they want him healthy for the next 5-8yrs DH is his spot. Keep him in the OF and I'll be surprised if he lasts 3 more years full time. MLB is simply not a sport for guys Gronk's size.
Shouldn't Stanton be in the same category? And they've got him locked up for 9 more years, unlike Judge who they only have control of for three more years. Seems like the Yankees would be better served to have the DH slot as a respite to rotate guys through rather than lock in a full time occupant for that spot.

Edit: I know Stanton has the opt-out following next year, but with the way contracts have been trending, I can't see him getting a longer deal than the 8 year one he'd be walking away from.
 

Al Zarilla

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NYY have to consider Judge as their long-term DH. As good as he is in the OF there is little chance of his body holding up and he'll be 28 next year. If they want him healthy for the next 5-8yrs DH is his spot. Keep him in the OF and I'll be surprised if he lasts 3 more years full time. MLB is simply not a sport for guys Gronk's size.
A good comp, Dave Winfield played OF into his 40s. I don’t know if it was the case with him, but some outstanding hitters, like Manny, have put their foot down and refused to DH. And he was a marginal outfielder, to say the least. If Judge wants to play RF, I don’t think Boone, or Boone with Cashman next to him are going to go against him. JMO of course.
 

mauf

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A good comp, Dave Winfield played OF into his 40s. I don’t know if it was the case with him, but some outstanding hitters, like Manny, have put their foot down and refused to DH. And he was a marginal outfielder, to say the least. If Judge wants to play RF, I don’t think Boone, or Boone with Cashman next to him are going to go against him. JMO of course.
I’m not sure if modern statistical analysis would back this up, but Winfield was considered an elite defender in his prime. I don’t see him as a good comp for anyone we’re discussing.
 

j44thor

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A good comp, Dave Winfield played OF into his 40s. I don’t know if it was the case with him, but some outstanding hitters, like Manny, have put their foot down and refused to DH. And he was a marginal outfielder, to say the least. If Judge wants to play RF, I don’t think Boone, or Boone with Cashman next to him are going to go against him. JMO of course.
Winfield's listed playing weight was 220 lbs. Judge is closer to 270 lbs. Manny was puny compared to Judge.
The question to me isn't if Judge wants to play the OF it is what will his body allow him to do.
 

glennhoffmania

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Judge has a very good arm, and he's fine for RF in Yankee Stadium since it's little league dimensions, but I wouldn't say he's a very good OF overall. His defensive abilities shouldn't be a reason to prevent him from becoming a DH. Whether he'll do it willingly or be more like Manny is another story.

I didn't realize he was that old. So he isn't going to be a FA until he's 30. I doubt someone will give him a big contract to be a RF when he's 31.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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A good comp, Dave Winfield played OF into his 40s. I don’t know if it was the case with him, but some outstanding hitters, like Manny, have put their foot down and refused to DH. And he was a marginal outfielder, to say the least. If Judge wants to play RF, I don’t think Boone, or Boone with Cashman next to him are going to go against him. JMO of course.
Winfield ceased to be a full time outfielder by the time he hit age 40. Starting with his age 40 season, he was the DH in more than 80% of his games played (350 out of 422).
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The MFYs can go after anyone I suppose, but RH DH power bat isn't super high on their list. They could use more lineup balance and SP.

Astros will likely need to spend on pitching, too. And they've got plenty of OFs.
 

Al Zarilla

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Winfield's listed playing weight was 220 lbs. Judge is closer to 270 lbs. Manny was puny compared to Judge.
The question to me isn't if Judge wants to play the OF it is what will his body allow him to do.
Winfield is listed at 6’6. With today’s weight training, what would he weigh? My bigger point is some guys have such stature that they play wherever they want (at least outfield vs. DH). I think Judge has that stature, at least so far.
 

geoflin

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I don't see J.D. opting out after this year. He isn't having as good of a year as he had in 2017 and after that year the Red Sox were his only suitors. Since then the free agent market has, if anything, become more difficult for high priced players and he'll be two years older this time around. I don't think he would get more money this winter than his current contract already would pay him. Of course Boras might feel differently and try to convince him otherwise.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Egos guys. JDM likely thinks he's worth more than he's making even with his down year (and I'm expecing to see a great second half). He'll opt out but likely just be looking for more $ and more years with the Red Sox. I realize his market isn't huge and the Sox may be bidding against themselves (teams actually do this all the time of course) and give him much more money and years than anyone else offers. But as a full time DH (AND HE SHOULD BE A FULL TIME DH!!!) he should be able to be worth that over the 2020-2024 seasons. Keeping him in a lineup with an emerging stud like Devers, Betts and X and this team will be able to stay competitive for that whole time.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Yankees are a very unlikely suitor for JDM. They have plenty of power, plenty of DH's, and some youngsters are going to start getting expensive before long.
Regardless, DD sure as hell isn't going to act out of fear over what the MFYs might possibly do.
the yankees are far more likely to make a play for Mookie
 

jon abbey

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Judge has a very good arm, and he's fine for RF in Yankee Stadium since it's little league dimensions, but I wouldn't say he's a very good OF overall.
OK, but he is. Last year Mookie led all right fielders in MLB with 20 DRS, but Judge was second with 14, and that was only playing 112 games (DRS is a counting stat). He's not Mookie, but he is really good, covering a surprising amount of ground, and can even play CF in a pinch although NY tries to avoid it if at all possible.

But back to the context of this discussion, I don't think JDM will opt out, but if he does, the competition would not be the Yankees or Astros, it would more likely be a team trying to make a statement like the Orioles.
 

BaseballJones

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I think they'll resign him for something like 4/$100M. I doubt anyone will offer him more than 20M per but DD must know they got a ton of value for him last year
I like the idea of trying to extend him now for something like this. I'd say more like 4/92, averaging $22 million a season. Currently he's slated for (if he doesn't opt out) $23.75 in 2020, $19.35 in 2021, and $19.35 in 2022 for a total of $62.45 million over three seasons ($20.8 per year on average). If he agreed to opt out and then sign this new deal with the Sox (not even sure how they could actually legally agree on this ahead of time; what's to stop him from opting out, having a handshake agreement in place with the Sox, and then another team offers more? I don't know if MLB would work like the NFL on this.), he'd be getting an additional guaranteed $29.55 (they could round it up to an even $30 mil to make it look nice). For the Sox, it would lock him up at a pretty reasonable rate, nothing too crazy.
 
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NYY have to consider Judge as their long-term DH. As good as he is in the OF there is little chance of his body holding up and he'll be 28 next year. If they want him healthy for the next 5-8yrs DH is his spot. Keep him in the OF and I'll be surprised if he lasts 3 more years full time. MLB is simply not a sport for guys Gronk's size.
If they use Judge as their DH they would lose about $10 million in value. They also have Stanton who would be a better candidate for DH.

His injuries to date have been related to batting; a fractured wrist from a HPB last year and an oblique strain this year.
I like the idea of trying to extend him now for something like this. I'd say more like 4/92, averaging $22 million a season. Currently he's slated for (if he doesn't opt out) $23.75 in 2020, $19.35 in 2021, and $19.35 in 2022 for a total of $62.45 million over three seasons ($20.8 per year on average). If he agreed to opt out and then sign this new deal with the Sox (not even sure how they could actually legally agree on this ahead of time; what's to stop him from opting out, having a handshake agreement in place with the Sox, and then another team offers more? I don't know if MLB would work like the NFL on this.), he'd be getting an additional guaranteed $29.55 (they could round it up to an even $30 mil to make it look nice). For the Sox, it would lock him up at a pretty reasonable rate, nothing too crazy.
I don't get why he needs to exercise his opt-out. There are only two parties so can't they agree to whatever they want?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
IF he decides to opt-out... does the team go into rebuild mode for a bit at that point? I think if he decides to stay and the tax it will make it a very interesting off season to say the least.
I think it's more like if he doesn't opt out that the team needs to go into rebuild mode, because at that point they likely have to trade either Mookie or multiple lesser-but-still-important players to get under the limit. If Martinez leaves, they can probably stand pat or make some payroll-neutral moves with an eye toward contending both in 2020 and after. Won't be easy, but a lot of possibilities open up at that point.

Yes, they'd have to fill the DH slot with lesser hitters, but they're going to have some sort of roster problem to solve this winter, and that seems like one of the more sustainable ones.
 

bosox79

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I think it's more like if he doesn't opt out that the team needs to go into rebuild mode, because at that point they likely have to trade either Mookie or multiple lesser-but-still-important players to get under the limit. If Martinez leaves, they can probably stand pat or make some payroll-neutral moves with an eye toward contending both in 2020 and after. Won't be easy, but a lot of possibilities open up at that point.

Yes, they'd have to fill the DH slot with lesser hitters, but they're going to have some sort of roster problem to solve this winter, and that seems like one of the more sustainable ones.
I'd normally say there is no way this team would rebuild next year because there is too much talent but the last 2 years it's taken 96+ wins to make the 2nd WC. There are just so many stacked teams. I'm sure the really bad teams are inflating some of the win totals but I'm not sure the Sox can put together a 96+ win team with or without JD given their payroll limitations and lack of a farm. But there's always 2013, so shit happens.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I think it's more like if he doesn't opt out that the team needs to go into rebuild mode, because at that point they likely have to trade either Mookie or multiple lesser-but-still-important players to get under the limit. If Martinez leaves, they can probably stand pat or make some payroll-neutral moves with an eye toward contending both in 2020 and after. Won't be easy, but a lot of possibilities open up at that point.

Yes, they'd have to fill the DH slot with lesser hitters, but they're going to have some sort of roster problem to solve this winter, and that seems like one of the more sustainable ones.
Well, they can always trade Martinez even if he doesn't opt out - according to Cot's he only has limited no-trade protections (can block trades to 3 teams). What a team would be willing to give up for him - especially with the remaining opt-outs still on his contract - is obviously not clear but if they are really just looking to shed salary that's there as an option.
 

SydneySox

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If the answer to the Mookie question is "more money" and JD wants to go, I think that's an easy goodbye. I think it's unlikely he opts out, but if he does, good.

Everything the Red Sox do at this point for me is about cutting payroll and retaining Mookie Betts.
 

JimD

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From the perspective of Boras and JDM, the last two years went as good as can be expected even with his diminished production this season. I would not be shocked if they elect to use the opt-out this year.
 

lexrageorge

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I'd normally say there is no way this team would rebuild next year because there is too much talent but the last 2 years it's taken 96+ wins to make the 2nd WC. There are just so many stacked teams. I'm sure the really bad teams are inflating some of the win totals but I'm not sure the Sox can put together a 96+ win team with or without JD given their payroll limitations and lack of a farm. But there's always 2013, so shit happens.
If they get the 2018 versions of Sale and Price, they can absolutely win 96+ games without JD. Obviously, there is no guarantee either happen, never mind both. But, in this admittedly optimistic scenario, their top 3 starters are Sale, Price, and Ed-Rod. They would need to add one 4/5 starter to go with Eovaldi, and probably take a flyer on a player to provide starting depth. Such moves would not (or at least should not) require that much in payroll going out.

If they get the 2019 versions of Sale and Price (or worse), then JD or no JD doesn't make much of a difference, other than payroll.
 
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If they get the 2018 versions of Sale and Price, they can absolutely win 96+ games without JD.
The 2018 versions of Sale and Price each got about one run more per game in support than did the 2019 versions (4.88/3.90--Sale and 5.47/4.48--Price). Would eliminating JD from the lineup be a step in getting their run support back? I'm simply questioning the logic, not taking a side for or against Martinez.
 

lexrageorge

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The 2018 versions of Sale and Price each got about one run more per game in support than did the 2019 versions (4.88/3.90--Sale and 5.47/4.48--Price). Would eliminating JD from the lineup be a step in getting their run support back? I'm simply questioning the logic, not taking a side for or against Martinez.
Sale's FIP went from 1.98 to 3.39. Price pitched 70 fewer innings in 2019 than 2018. Those problems were more seriously detrimental to the team's success than the randomness of run support.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The 2018 versions of Sale and Price each got about one run more per game in support than did the 2019 versions (4.88/3.90--Sale and 5.47/4.48--Price). Would eliminating JD from the lineup be a step in getting their run support back? I'm simply questioning the logic, not taking a side for or against Martinez.
The 2018 versions of Sale and Price allowed far fewer runs per nine innings than the 2019 versions as well (2.22/4.89 for Sale, 3.84/4.78 for Price). The 2018 versions of those pitchers with their 2019 run support would have been a HUGE improvement over what actually happened.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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From the perspective of Boras and JDM, the last two years went as good as can be expected even with his diminished production this season. I would not be shocked if they elect to use the opt-out this year.
I wonder what Boras is imagining needs to be out there and likely in order to opt out. I think the current contract is worth more than the 3/63 it appears to be on its face because of the annual opt out rights and the front loading.

He basically has right now a $23.5m one year deal with a built in $39 million additional guaranteed for injury and regression protection. That’s a pretty nice deal. I think he has to be convinced that another team will go at least four years at significantly over $20 million. Say, 4/95. Is that definitely out there for him? Seems probably about 50/50. That’s a really tough decision unless Boras can do some behind the scenes not quite tampering without crossing the line to get a sense.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I wonder what Boras is imagining needs to be out there and likely in order to opt out. I think the current contract is worth more than the 3/63 it appears to be on its face because of the annual opt out rights and the front loading.

He basically has right now a $23.5m one year deal with a built in $39 million additional guaranteed for injury and regression protection. That’s a pretty nice deal. I think he has to be convinced that another team will go at least four years at significantly over $20 million. Say, 4/95. Is that definitely out there for him? Seems probably about 50/50. That’s a really tough decision unless Boras can do some behind the scenes not quite tampering without crossing the line to get a sense.
I think he opts out if Boras thinks he can get 4/84, or maybe even as low as 4/80. Getting an extra year and 20 mil or so should be enough.
 

jon abbey

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JDM will also have a qualifying offer attached, I don't see how he can top his current deal in this marketplace but I guess we'll see soon enough.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I think he opts out if Boras thinks he can get 4/84, or maybe even as low as 4/80. Getting an extra year and 20 mil or so should be enough.
I think those numbers seem too low. He doesn't have to have a particular great year this year for that to be a mistake. Taking 4/84 means that he doesn't think he will have a good enough year this year to get just 3/60 next year in free agency. I think he thinks more highly of himself and is willing to bet on himself. It would be one thing if this year's contract was a straight $23.5 million deal and there were no injury protection, but he has plenty of back stop to earn his $23.5 million this year and then do it again next year.
 

BaseballJones

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The 2018 versions of Sale and Price allowed far fewer runs per nine innings than the 2019 versions as well (2.22/4.89 for Sale, 3.84/4.78 for Price). The 2018 versions of those pitchers with their 2019 run support would have been a HUGE improvement over what actually happened.
The 2018 versions of Sale and Price each got about one run more per game in support than did the 2019 versions (4.88/3.90--Sale and 5.47/4.48--Price). Would eliminating JD from the lineup be a step in getting their run support back? I'm simply questioning the logic, not taking a side for or against Martinez.
So combined, Sale and Price went from:

2018
- Sale: 4.88 support, 2.22 allowed (net: +2.66)
- Price: 5.47 support, 3.84 allowed (net: +1.63)

to

2019
- Sale: 3.90 support, 4.89 allowed (net: -0.99)
- Price: 4.48 support, 4.78 allowed (net: -0.30)

For Sale then, it represented a net drop of 3.65 runs per nine innings. For Price, it represented a net drop of 1.93 runs per nine innings.

Yeah, no wonder this team wasn't the same. Holy smokes.