JBJ: Elite Defender With Some Pop

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
Isn’t last season kind of what we can reasonably expect JBJ to be? Low season average, decent power, incredible glove, slow start bat, strong recovery, followed by two or three more dips over the course of the year of varying but not fatal lengths? Then we spend the next offseason wondering whether he can get off to a faster start and ...
 

The Needler

New Member
Dec 7, 2016
1,803
Isn’t last season kind of what we can reasonably expect JBJ to be? Low season average, decent power, incredible glove, slow start bat, strong recovery, followed by two or three more dips over the course of the year of varying but not fatal lengths? Then we spend the next offseason wondering whether he can get off to a faster start and ...
Except that you're assuming quite the conclusion with "incredible glove." Some of us are not quite as quick to dismiss all available metrics and technology that say JBJ is no longer an elite defender just because of the occasional spectacular catch and what we think we see on TV. He is undeniably getting slower and worse in the field; time is undefeated. As to the question of how much, I am inclined to defer to statcast, UZR, etc.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,347
Except that you're assuming quite the conclusion with "incredible glove." Some of us are not quite as quick to dismiss all available metrics and technology that say JBJ is no longer an elite defender just because of the occasional spectacular catch and what we think we see on TV. He is undeniably getting slower and worse in the field; time is undefeated. As to the question of how much, I am inclined to defer to statcast, UZR, etc.
I've given up on advanced defensive metrics. They're garbage. It's not even worth discussing anymore... but too many defensive statistics give wildly varying readings on the same defender. Too context driven. JBJ is absolutely an elite defender. Still. Maybe not in 2 years.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Isn’t last season kind of what we can reasonably expect JBJ to be? Low season average, decent power, incredible glove, slow start bat, strong recovery, followed by two or three more dips over the course of the year of varying but not fatal lengths? Then we spend the next offseason wondering whether he can get off to a faster start and ...
He doesn't always finish strong. In fact, the opposite is true. He usually tanks in the 2nd half. The only year he finished with a better 2nd half is 2018.
 

The Needler

New Member
Dec 7, 2016
1,803
I've given up on advanced defensive metrics. They're garbage. It's not even worth discussing anymore... but too many defensive statistics give wildly varying readings on the same defender. Too context driven. JBJ is absolutely an elite defender. Still. Maybe not in 2 years.
Oh. Well that settles it, then.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I've given up on advanced defensive metrics. They're garbage. It's not even worth discussing anymore... but too many defensive statistics give wildly varying readings on the same defender. Too context driven. JBJ is absolutely an elite defender. Still. Maybe not in 2 years.
What qualifies as an elite defender at one's position? top 3? top 5? CF is a pretty stacked position.

Plus 2 people will give even more wildly varying readings on the same defender. Scouting reports are garbage. Not even worth discussing anymore.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,347
Oh. Well that settles it, then.
You're free to disagree. I've gone through the advanced defensive statistics and they're not convincing. I realize even OPS is still very context driven too... but the context can be distilled from it (somewhat). Defensive stats are too dependent on subjective ratings, positioning of other players, parks, arbitrary fields projected. Sorry. Done engaging but quoting advanced defensive statistics are junk. When the different systems start lining up consistently then I'll start considering them.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,239
What qualifies as an elite defender at one's position? top 3? top 5? CF is a pretty stacked position.

Plus 2 people will give even more wildly varying readings on the same defender. Scouting reports are garbage. Not even worth discussing anymore.

It's possible that he's a great CF and also that others might be better, by whatever increments exist between "great" and "the best." I think our own eyeballs can tell us if the guy we see 150 times a year is great in CF or not. They can't tell us where he stacks up with others.
 

The Needler

New Member
Dec 7, 2016
1,803
It's possible that he's a great CF and also that others might be better, by whatever increments exist between "great" and "the best." I think our own eyeballs can tell us if the guy we see 150 times a year is great in CF or not. They can't tell us where he stacks up with others.
But "elite" is definitionally a relative term, and "great" needs to be in this context, as well. If JBJ plays exactly as he does--no matter how wonderful that looks to our eyes 150 times a year--and every other CF in MLB plays better, is JBJ a "great" or "elite" centerfielder?

When you throw out the analytics that attempt to measure a fielder's play relative to his peers, then you're left with no tangible way to define a fielder's value. Which leaves us with offensive value.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,239
But "elite" is definitionally a relative term, and "great" needs to be in this context, as well. If JBJ plays exactly as he does--no matter how wonderful that looks to our eyes 150 times a year--and every other CF in MLB plays better, is JBJ a "great" or "elite" centerfielder?

When you throw out the analytics that attempt to measure a fielder's play relative to his peers, then you're left with no tangible way to define a fielder's value. Which leaves us with offensive value.
"Elite" and "great" are meaningless words. Probably even more meaningless than defensive metrics.

I am certain the team defines his defensive value in some way that it finds tangible. I don't particularly give a shit where that "leaves us." JBJ is a really fucking good center fielder.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
One thing that JBJ is fairly “great” at doing is staying healthy. He’s logged 4,529 innings in center since 2016 — first in MLB. (He’s third in CF innings since the start of 2017 and ‘18). Looking at it that way kind of overlooks a few things — offense, for one, and also players who’ve stayed healthy but moved to a corner — but having a very good-to-excellent CF who can stay healthy while routinely making jumping and diving catches is no small thing.