This iso efficiency is also super-critical to the whole theory of the Celtics, because it breaks the Matt Moore "just let them iso and take away their 3s" naive strat.
Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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I mean it’s very simple to me, which is why I think Matt Moore has no clue what he’s talking about.
Teams consistently double/trap/blitz Tatum for a reason lol. To steal a line from Game of Thrones, they’re very aware of the consequences of their actions, and they do it anyways. Teams know that if you let Tatum go 1 on 1, he’s going to obliterate them. And he’s that level of player that when he gets going, it almost always leads to a win.
This year, the difference is that he almost always knows what he wants to do, as his ability to read defenses is becoming S tier. So throwing a ton at him doesn’t really matter, and a big part of that is his screening/off ball activity is also S tier. Dude is STILL shooting 85% within 3 feet, and he’s significantly increased the volume over the last few weeks.
He actually kind of reminds of Jokic, as far as his ability to dominate a game without insane high usage. Just with very good efficiency instead of all time great lol.
This came up earlier this year - I don't think that 85% number is right. I assume its from basketball reference. NBA.com and PBPStats define the category slightly differently (0-5 feet and "at rim" respectively) but have him at 69% and 75% respectively, which are both much more reasonable numbers.
I’m pretty sure it’s just the difference between the 3-5 feet, which makes sense because Tatum doesn’t have a lot of touch once you get more towards floater range.
Possibly, but his 0-3 pct this year is a real outlier both in context of his career and also league wide. I think bbref may have a bug.
Definitely possible, but more to my point, he’s one of the best non center finishers in the league at the rim, especially amongst high volume guys.
Agree on the Luka part, but Denver is playing terribly and on a 46.5 win pace. Jokic won MVP in 2021/2022 with Denver winning just 48 games. I think if he continues to play as he is, and Denver finishes top 6 - it is his
Yeah, I think voters sort of regret the Embiid MVP in hindsight. Jokic went and won the title in dominating fashion, Embiid did his 2nd round thing, and then Jokic won MVP easily last year.
They won't make the same mistake again.
Finishing top 6 is gonna be the hard part here (currently 7th), but he may still win even from the play in. The fact that there isn’t one obvious second choice (SGA and Giannis are basically tied for 2nd right now, with Tatum not too far behind them) makes Jokic more likely to win again as the consensus best player.
It feels like the Bucks have been surging for weeks, but they are still on pace for just 44 wins - that number in the east should be disqualifying for Giannis.
I think top 6 is quite likely. They have a couple moves they can make (big and small) and soon enough the Kings, Spurs, and other bottom dwellers will start their march to the top of the lottery which will get Denver a few more wins.
But yea, I think even from the play in Jokic is at worst a 50/50 shot at getting the MVP
If the Nuggets don’t make a move, I think they’re a play-in team. I think he’s definitely the best player in the league, but I don’t think they’d give MVP to a play in team.
And like I said yesterday, he’s lost his chokehold on king of advanced stats, which was always one of things that writers would justify their Jokic MVP pick with.
Denver probably makes a move, but SGA has a real argument as of now IMO.
And like I said yesterday, he’s lost his chokehold on king of advanced stats, which was always one of things that writers would justify their Jokic MVP pick with.
Denver probably makes a move, but SGA has a real argument as of now IMO.
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Where are you getting those EPM numbers? I see Jokic clearly ahead of SGA (8.2 to 7.1).
And his DARKO is way above SGA
You’re clearly looking at expected, not actual.
The .4 gap is similar to the .6 edge Jokic has in DARKO. SGA (and Tatum) are ahead of Jokic in LEBRON, so SGA has the edge in 2 of the 3 highest regarded advanced stats.
I think the best the Nuggets can realistically hope for is to get (and stay) healthy. The Kings are a punt possibility, but that would mean moving Fox somewhere…which throws off everything. And if he goes to the Spurs (likely not, but the rumor is out there), San Antonio would absolutely look like a team for the top 6. They might be anyway, given that Wemby is the most likely star level player to improve between now and year end (he looks like a top 10 player right now, less than 100 games into his career).
The west is really funky, other than OKC is any team a lock for the top 6? Were Luka healthy I’d say Dallas, but who knows with him (even if they’ve played great with him on the bench).
I’m with you btw, I think Jokic should win MVP every year.
I just think there are factors that may hurt him this season.
From The Athletic's story:
Following the first game this season against Udoka’s Rockets, Tatum suggested the coach brought the Celtics an edge they needed during his lone season with the organization. When Boston hired the coach in 2021, after Brad Stevens moved to the front office, Tatum said it was a good time for a change.
“Brad had done an amazing job for 10 years or whatever it was,” Tatum said. “Sometimes, you just need a different voice and a different style of coaching. I think Ime, he’s big on toughness and physicality and taking on the challenge and going at people. And that’s what we did that year, right? We had a tough start. But him as our head coach, he never wavered and we turned our season around. We was hungry. And got to the Finals and came up short. We loved to have him around. He’s an amazing person, amazing coach.”
Tatum said he has been blessed to play under Stevens, Udoka and Mazzulla.
“I would venture to say I’ve been very fortunate with the organization I’ve been with, with all the teammates that I’ve had, and I’ve had three of the best coaches I could have possibly had, especially at the time in my life,” Tatum said. “Brad believing in a 19-year-old kid and teaching me about the NBA and the ins and outs. At times I was frustrated with Brad and I wanted a bigger role or whatever, but I appreciate the relationship that me and Brad have and how he allowed me to grow through that process. Ime, that one year was special. First time I made first-team All-NBA, went to the finals, at that point it was the best season I had. And he instilled something in the organization that was needed at the time. Obviously, Joe, with what he’s done with this group and leading us to a championship, so I’ve been very fortunate to have three of the best coaches, those are three of the best people that I could have had and helped me on my journey.”
Following the first game this season against Udoka’s Rockets, Tatum suggested the coach brought the Celtics an edge they needed during his lone season with the organization. When Boston hired the coach in 2021, after Brad Stevens moved to the front office, Tatum said it was a good time for a change.
“Brad had done an amazing job for 10 years or whatever it was,” Tatum said. “Sometimes, you just need a different voice and a different style of coaching. I think Ime, he’s big on toughness and physicality and taking on the challenge and going at people. And that’s what we did that year, right? We had a tough start. But him as our head coach, he never wavered and we turned our season around. We was hungry. And got to the Finals and came up short. We loved to have him around. He’s an amazing person, amazing coach.”
Tatum said he has been blessed to play under Stevens, Udoka and Mazzulla.
“I would venture to say I’ve been very fortunate with the organization I’ve been with, with all the teammates that I’ve had, and I’ve had three of the best coaches I could have possibly had, especially at the time in my life,” Tatum said. “Brad believing in a 19-year-old kid and teaching me about the NBA and the ins and outs. At times I was frustrated with Brad and I wanted a bigger role or whatever, but I appreciate the relationship that me and Brad have and how he allowed me to grow through that process. Ime, that one year was special. First time I made first-team All-NBA, went to the finals, at that point it was the best season I had. And he instilled something in the organization that was needed at the time. Obviously, Joe, with what he’s done with this group and leading us to a championship, so I’ve been very fortunate to have three of the best coaches, those are three of the best people that I could have had and helped me on my journey.”
That's a great quote from Tatum, love that he appreciates the role all 3 coaches have played in his development.
Reading that, I am reminded how crazy it is that the team survived, hell, even improved on a man to man basis after the Ime debacle.
Even general nba fans are saying this shit is insane. Think about what some other players in the league get away with lol.
View: https://twitter.com/iinangelo/status/1875620607817306558
View: https://twitter.com/iinangelo/status/1875620607817306558
At least with him they’re consistent on the loud clapping thing. That’s about the best i can say for the refs.
I don't think there are a lot of guys Tatum's size doing this against good wing defenders.
View: https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1876859847758458907?t=jBnVKuzk9ujrt-PKU8gZeQ&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1876859847758458907?t=jBnVKuzk9ujrt-PKU8gZeQ&s=19
One of the common (and frankly, weird) knocks against Tatum as an elite player is that nothing about his game is unique. He's 6'9 with the handle of a guy 3-4 inches shorter (the fact that he's never averaged even 3 TOs/game with his usage at his size is crazy) and the rebounding ability of a guy 3-4 inches taller (he's 6th in the league in total defensive rebounds). People are missing out.
I think all that’s really considered are points and shooting percentage… defense and rebounding don’t really play into voting it seems. Beyond that I’m not sure how much a single player changes the entirety of the other team’s D..
Jokic is obviously the best player but I don’t think there’s another player I’d rather have than Tatum for this team.
You'd think Tatum had a good week, then when you see his numbers plastered next to Jokic's....woof. Although in Tatum's defense, those points/rebounds/assists are all solidly below his season averages. Was there no one better in the EC last week?
It's a nice luxury to have when your star can have a below average week (statistically) and win conference player of the week.
NBA.com really does good stats work:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?PerMode=PerGame&sort=PTS&dir=-1&DateFrom=12/30/2024&DateTo=01/05/2025&Conference=East
If we assume you had to play at least 3 games and have a winning record, it's not a huge group to pull from. Embiid averaged 31/12/4 and went 2-1, Cade averaged 26/6/8 and went 3-0, Haliburton averaged 24/6/10 and went 2-1, Mitchell averaged 21/3/5 and went 4-0, Garland averaged 20/3/8 and went 4-0. The Cavs guys are gonna cannibalize their own numbers a lot this year, and the league is loath to give Embiid any further honors (especially considering that he missed another game last week). Cade just a couple weeks ago. Truth be told, it was really a pretty blah week for everyone in the East outside of Cleveland.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?PerMode=PerGame&sort=PTS&dir=-1&DateFrom=12/30/2024&DateTo=01/05/2025&Conference=East
If we assume you had to play at least 3 games and have a winning record, it's not a huge group to pull from. Embiid averaged 31/12/4 and went 2-1, Cade averaged 26/6/8 and went 3-0, Haliburton averaged 24/6/10 and went 2-1, Mitchell averaged 21/3/5 and went 4-0, Garland averaged 20/3/8 and went 4-0. The Cavs guys are gonna cannibalize their own numbers a lot this year, and the league is loath to give Embiid any further honors (especially considering that he missed another game last week). Cade just a couple weeks ago. Truth be told, it was really a pretty blah week for everyone in the East outside of Cleveland.
There aren't many weeks when Jokic shouldn't win player of the week, to be fair.
But like Scal said last night, the other Nuggets players should've been excited to get to touch the ball more in the game last night, because Jokic takes 115 touches per game. Which is an insane number. They are so, so dependent on him, and clinging for dear life when he's not on the court. Put another way, I think the Celtics can win a playoff series even without Jayson Tatum, though certainly not a title. I'm not sure the Nuggets could win a playoff game against a decent team without Jokic.
I thought Denver’s supporting cast looked pretty solid last night. If they get Aaron Gordon back and the team is healthy heading into Postseason, they could be a serious contendah. WC should be a bloodbath.
Since 2020, nobody who has had 5+ iso possessions per game has averaged more than 1.11 PPP. Tatum is fucking frying dudes in isolation lol
View: https://twitter.com/NElGHT_/status/1876859829844643843
View: https://twitter.com/NElGHT_/status/1876859829844643843
Lavine is having a really interesting year.
He asked out last season, all offseason there was rumors. His value was so low though lol, the FO asked him to just play within the system, work with the young guys. and told him the offensive philosophy would be more conducive to his play style.
And in rare form for an nba player, he listened. and has done exactly that. My respect level for him has shot up this season lol.
I believe the last player to average more than 1.1 PPP in ISO on 5+ possessions per game was Harden in 2018, who averaged 1.22 ppp on an insane 10 possessions per game. Definitely worth remembering that Harden never had a really great 3P% either, averaging just .361 from 3 over his 6 year prime in Houston from 2015-2020. Granted he also got to the line 10+ times per game, but still.
For better or worse, the team as a whole seems to have flipped back to "60+ win team with Tatum on the court, slightly above average with him off it." That didn't quite get it down from 2020-2023, but there's plenty of time.
I was looking through and there was a season where Harden had FOURTEEN isolation possessions per game lol.
As far as your last point, I’m at the point where I think it’s fair to say Jaylen has been kind of meh so far, at least for what people expected. but I completely trust that he will turn it to another gear down the stretch and in the playoffs.
i also think JB is definitely playing banged up, and I know he wants all nba, just like any player, but it seems highly unlikely, so I’d rather him rest up even if it means not playing 65 games.
You need to filter not by "Tatum-on, Tatum-off", but instead look for the JB/JT splits, since they always keep 1 of those 2 on the floor when healthy.
This year:
Both on: +10.7
JT only: +12.98
JB only: +10.87
They're doing just fine in the non-Tatum minutes, when JB is healthy. JB is a fucking stud, dating back to last year (his actual All-NBA year).
Splits with JB only are amazing. It's purely an injury thing, when they don't have both available.
JB’s shooting has been poor. 32.5% from 3 vs 36.1% career. But worth noting that his assists per game has taken a gigantic leap, up over 30% from his career high. If he gets his shooting back up it’s all good.
I’m very aware, but I don’t think you can just look at only net ratings when it comes to grading a player. He’s been inefficient, the defense has been very up and down, and he just doesn’t look right out there.
They’re still +10.7, but that’s down 4 points from two weeks ago or so. It’s still insane obviously lol, but it trending down has definitely matched the eye test.
But like I said above, I think it’s because Jaylen is definitely playing hurt.
Yeah, I'm not one to only use net ratings......but
a) the whole "they're bad with Tatum off" narrative is just wrong. They're great with him off, when their other star can play
b) it's really really really really hard to find examples of guys consistently leading lineups at +10, particularly with the team's alpha star off. It's just hard to not be good when you're playing that specific role with those net ratings
I wouldn't use net rating to make those types of points about e.g. PP or Horford, because they don't play that role on offense.
That’s why I use a blend of everything, raw stats, eye stats, on/off, and advanced stats. I think Jaylen has been pretty good in a vacuum, but it’s very fair to say people expected more from him going into the season. I think he’s been more top 30ish this year than top 15, but it’s also been less than half a season lol.
Him using a years old SpongeBob meme is so classic Tatum. This is a rebuttal to what Brandon Jennings keeps saying on Gilbert Arenas podcast lol.
View: https://twitter.com/CTabatabaie/status/1877182508506194079
Edit: Jennings is currently crashing out
View: https://twitter.com/alpacinogrunt/status/1877194477137256484
View: https://twitter.com/CTabatabaie/status/1877182508506194079
Edit: Jennings is currently crashing out
View: https://twitter.com/alpacinogrunt/status/1877194477137256484
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Can someone enlighten me as to what it means to "crash out" in this context?
And/or who Brandon Jennings is and why we might care, but mostly the first one.
I hadn't actually seen the graphic that Brandon Jennings posted, that's wild. The only way to put Tatum that far down the list of all-time Celtics is if you literally ignore the last 3.5 years (that graphic has him at 19.5 ppg, which was his career average after the 20-21 season). There are a million lousy athlete podcasts out there, I'm not sure any of them have as wide a reach as the Arenas podcast.
Crashing out is just another way of saying melting down.
Brandon Jennings, who played like 9 seasons in the nba, and is on Gilbert Arenas podcast. I don’t expect how someone would know who a former nba player is though, sorry for expecting that much.
The point of the post was that Tatum seems to be sick of all the bullshit takes, and it’s pretty out of character for him to go back at someone.
It’s funny because it’s a horrible podcast, and Arenas is pretty horrible, but a lot of people seem to like it lol.
Jennings has already tried spinning it as him motivating Tatum.
Thanks for answering my genuine questions without being a dick about it, it really makes it more enjoyable to read your posts.
Oh yeah, saying why should we care is a genuine post. Nothing pretentious about that, didn’t sound like a dick at all.