Yeah, that's what I meant. "Lifetime achievement" was a slightly tongue-in-cheek Monty Williams COTY reference.
Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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Best players on the best teams who aren't necessarily the best player in the league have won on occasion (Curry in 2015, Rose in 2011, Dirk in 2007) but the best players on super teams (and that's the common perception about this version of the Celtics, fair or not) do not. Curry and Durant were arguably top 3 (and definitely top 5) players during their three years together on by far the best team in the league, and not only did neither guy win MVP from 2017-2019, they didn't come close (neither guy finished higher than 5th during that stretch). The more this Celtics team wins the more they lock in the "super team" perception, the harder it will be for Tatum to break through.
He'll win if he has an absurdly efficient season (think Curry in 2016) or it ends up being a down year for other candidates. Jokic/Luka/Davis could fail to hit the games played threshold, SGA could decline a bit or stay the same statistically, the Bucks could be too mediocre for Giannis to get real consideration...it's not impossible to see Tatum breaking through and winning one, I just think the Celtics winning 60+ games with the current roster is less of a factor (in his favor) than maybe it should be. Maybe things really do change, but the Celtics were wire to wire the best team in the league last year by a mile and Tatum was clearly among the best players again with his 3rd straight 1st team selection, and he didn't even finish in the top 5 of MVP voting. Perceptions of players for MVP can lag by a year, but considering Tatum had a prolonged shooting slump during the playoffs and didn't win finals MVP, I don't know how much last year's title really helped Tatum (and the olympics didn't help either). He's a slightly better player than last year, but enough to jump from 6th to 1st? Eh.
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It seems like voters look harder at on/off when it comes to MVP than in the past, and last year was the one season the Celtics dominated whether Tatum was on the floor or not. There was no real argument for him last season, the raw and advanced stats were elite, but outside of DPM, they weren’t top 3-5 type of numbers. On top of that, the Celtics had a double digit net rating when he or any other player sat lol.
If he ends the season with 29/9/6 on a 62% TS, and his on/off numbers stay similar? I think he’d have a real shot at #2 behind Jokic, or win if Jokic were to miss the games played threshold, for some reason. He’s +9.2 on CTG, no other teammate is higher than +4.4. On PBPstats, he’s +14.55, no teammate is higher than +5.72. The picture below is the teams net ratings with the players off the floor, and a bunch of the writers just use the official nba numbers, as opposed to CTG or whatever.
He’s very unlikely to win MVP this season, but him playing at a legitimate MVP level is far more important lol.
If he ends the season with 29/9/6 on a 62% TS, and his on/off numbers stay similar? I think he’d have a real shot at #2 behind Jokic, or win if Jokic were to miss the games played threshold, for some reason. He’s +9.2 on CTG, no other teammate is higher than +4.4. On PBPstats, he’s +14.55, no teammate is higher than +5.72. The picture below is the teams net ratings with the players off the floor, and a bunch of the writers just use the official nba numbers, as opposed to CTG or whatever.
He’s very unlikely to win MVP this season, but him playing at a legitimate MVP level is far more important lol.
Jaylen having a down year and KP barely playing (so far) makes it feel a lot different from the peak Warriors. If the season ended today, and Jokic suffered a freak gasoline fight accident, Tatum is probably MVP.
Of course, there's a ton of season to go, Jokic is very not-injured, and JB/KP could play a lot and really well from here. I do sense that the MVP narrative has shifted heavily in Tatum's favor now from where it was a year ago, however. Winning helps, 29/9/6 on good TS with godly +/- helps.
Sean Grande: As we’ve discussed at length on Celtics game broadcasts this year, the dramatic Jayson Tatum on/off numbers have returned. Boston is now… +199 in 690 minutes with Tatum on the floor +2 in 237 minutes with Tatum off the floor Last year was the only year there was no drop off
Another good sign: Tatum is taking more & a slightly higher % of C&S 3s this season.
JT is surrounded by so many good players (now he has to compete with PP for shots) that it's probably too hard to break through the sheer Luka/SGA raw numbers. It's all kind of irrelevant; Joker is in a league all by himself this season (& past years).
JT will just have to settle for winning... a lot
Another good sign: Tatum is taking more & a slightly higher % of C&S 3s this season.
JT is surrounded by so many good players (now he has to compete with PP for shots) that it's probably too hard to break through the sheer Luka/SGA raw numbers. It's all kind of irrelevant; Joker is in a league all by himself this season (& past years).
JT will just have to settle for winning... a lot
The off numbers should go up now that Horford will get more minutes with the reserves. The Al, PP, Hauser bomb squad off the bench very potent, obviously.
The on-off for Tatum is pretty misleading (fortunately). They've done well in the Jaylen-only minutes (+4.65, with horrific shot luck, as opponents shoot 45% from 3 in those minutes).
All of the damage is coming in 84 non-Tatum/non-Jaylen minutes. They're +11 in 50 minutes with DWhite and no JT/JB, so the real story is that they've gotten UTTERLY SMASHED in garbage time.
The Celtics are -38 (!!) rating in 35 minutes without White, Tatum, Brown. That's it. That's the story.
Attachments
Tatum is always healthy (a skill unto itself IMHO), so you never get a real feel for how much this team would fall off a cliff without him for an extended period.
Again, check the numbers.
The team is fine when White and/or Jaylen play without Tatum.
He's obviously incredible and lifting them to another level, but the Celtics are a good, deep team.
If Tatum actually ever missed a stretch of games, though, they’d need to use a LOT of lineups with only one of Jaylen/White, or with neither of them and Jrue/KP leading bench units, and none of those no-Tatum bench lineups are likely to be NEARLY as effective in bigger minutes as the Tatum bench units are.
That would be felt subjectively in those games, IMO, and would show up in the on/off numbers across the roster (but not hurting Tatum).
The Celtics have 12 3-man combinations that have played 150+ minutes together so far this year, and Tatum/Hauser/Pritchard have the 2nd best net rating of that group at +19.2/100, barely behind Brown/Holiday/Horford at +19.3/100. The Tatum bench mob lineups are a huge part of their success (Tatum's ability to keep the team afloat while 3-4 other starters are sitting is huge), I very much agree that if he were out for an extended period we'd feel it pretty badly regardless of what the current on/off splits say.
Tatum's durability is just another aspect of his professionalism that we ought to celebrate. Has the guy ever missed time for anything more than a game off for rest? Leaving aside the freak ankle issue at the start of 2023 ECF Game 7, and even then it sounded like if there'd been a Game 8, he'd have played it.
He missed 5-6 games a few years ago for covid, but that's all that comes to mind. It's unfortunate that even in this regard, jokic comes out ahead.
The hardcore nerds know that, but looking at it from an awards narrative standpoint, most of the writers and voters just look at the official nba on/off stuff. A writer once told me it’s because that’s what they have always used, so it didn’t make sense to use garbage time filtered ones now. It sounded silly lol, but whatever.
What stands out more than anything is the gap in on/off between him and anyone else on the team, as of now.
Edit: As I post this, Scal and NBC are pumping the on/off right now.
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Yeah, I'm losing my mind as everyone does the "-0.5 with him off" stat. They've been really good with him off and at least one of JB/DWhite on the floor.
That version should scare the heck out of us.BUT Brad has fortified the roster around Tatum since G7:
1. Addition of KP & Jrue (needs to wake up from his early season funk)
2. Improved White & JB (ball handling/defense)
3. PP/Hauser development
4. Oft-injured TL, Malcolm, Grant & Smart role/minutes/shots were replaced with the above players
5. CJM's system installation
6.
I don't think it's as grim as all that. If Tatum is known to be out, the gameplan will be different, the rotations will be different, and Jaylen Brown won't suddenly think he needs to go win the game and series all by himself, and then play ever-more-desperately as that goal eludes him ever-further. The Tatum Rest games over the last few seasons have not gone much more poorly than the games Tatum plays, IIRC. It's just a matter of having some preparation, rather than sudden reaction to exigent situations.
Tatum also has not missed a playoff game in his entire career. I just went and checked. He's only had short-minutes games a few times, either:
- His rookie season, he had a few short-minute games in the first round against Milwaukee, none of them blowouts
- 24' in the 2019 blowout G2 loss in Milwaukee (Tatum -18)
- likewise 21' in the 2021 G2 loss in Brooklyn (Tatum -28)
- only 19' when we rocked Philly by 34 in 2023 ECSF G2 (Tatum +24).
- And in Finals G4 in June, where he put up -33 in 27' (and the rest of the team not much better)
The guy has averaged like 40'+ in playoff games otherwise, even including the one he was injured in. Just incredible availability.
The other player who quickly comes to mind in that regard is of course LeBron James, who seems to have never logged under 39' in any playoff game his team has played, except as victory-cigar job-done early pulls in blowouts... with one exception. He did have shorter 30-38 minute games in a lot of the 2020 bubble playoff run, but in fairness a lot of those games were blowouts too. And looking at game logs, Michael Jordan seems to have largely done similarly. But the same can definitely not be said for the likes of, say, Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant. McHale played backup minutes in the 1981 run, short minutes up through the 1984 playoffs, and missed some other games too. There's a long history of all-star or even HOF wings missing games or parts of games when it matters, and Tatum by comparison has been Mr. Reliable, up there with the all-time greats.
I would say White had well broken out by the end of his second season with us. He's not a leading-man type who can create his own shot, so maybe he couldn't have done much more that game, but the way Jaylen played precluded anyone else from being able to get hot and contribute.
(our defense, in particular, also became dogshit at various stretches of that game)
This is the third straight year he’s won this for Oct/Nov lol
View: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1864051991934009785?
View: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1864051991934009785?
This is his 5th player of the month award. For comparison, Pierce won it 4x in his entire career.
Yup, Jayson Tatum is a better basketball player than Paul Pierce, and I don't think it's that close.
Pierce made 4 All-NBA teams his entire career--Tatum has already made 3 1st teams, and they were all fully deserved.
It's neither here nor there to me, but isn't Jokic the unanimous leader for MVP? How is he not also the Oct./Nov. player of the month in the west? It's the only month they've played.
He missed several games for the birth of his child. Possibly enough to make it impossible for him to win the player of the month, but unless he has another child coming in the next few months, it's unlikely to hamper his chances of winning MVP. As overwhelming a favorite as he feels, by the odds he's still less likely to win MVP than Wemby is to win DPOY (and less likely than Pritchard is to win 6th MOY).
Okay, I see Shai did play in five more games. That's fair.
Jokic shooting 52% from three on 4.3 attempts is absolutely bonkers, though. He's never been above 40% and he's never been above 4 attempts! Most FTA ever, too. Crazy that he keeps getting better at age 29.
Makes you wonder how much Tatum and Brown still have to grow.
This is sort of interesting - their trajectories were sort of similar until age 24 or so, but at that point Pierce was at his peak. Tatum, on the other hand, took another significant leap. But Pierce was in its own way remarkable. He may have basically peaked at 24, but then he basically stayed there for a whole decade.
Tatum just has a ton of physical tools that Pierce couldn't dream of. Pierce came in as a highly skilled guy and played with high effort, plus his ground-bound game could age very nicely.
Like a lot of older NBA players who used to rely on athleticism, Kobe refused to drive, despite being advised to do so
Pierce had such an interesting career. He probably peaked as the 8th-10th best player in the league. He probably [sigh], wasn't the best player on a title team, though he was the number one offensive option. He's really similar to Tatum in that he evolved into a complete player, and was underappreciated for it. I think his passing and playmaking was at a similar level to what Tatum is at now, despite playing in an era where the conventional wisdom was, as Cous used to say, you gotta get the ball to the point guard. He wasn't as defensively versatile as Tatum is, but his defense was very good for a long time.
And yeah, he's like one micro-tier below JT. We don't have to wonder anymore if JT can be the best player on a title team, we only have to wonder if he'll ever win an MVP. Pierce never got to that level. But he did go toe-to-toe with Lebron in a seven game series and often looked like the best player on the floor. And if I needed one of them to get a bucket to save my soul, I'd take Pierce.
And yeah, he's like one micro-tier below JT. We don't have to wonder anymore if JT can be the best player on a title team, we only have to wonder if he'll ever win an MVP. Pierce never got to that level. But he did go toe-to-toe with Lebron in a seven game series and often looked like the best player on the floor. And if I needed one of them to get a bucket to save my soul, I'd take Pierce.
I think Pierce is one of the players who would be better situated if he had come along 15-20 years later. He's since been joined and/or kicked out by Lebron and Harden (and Durant, soon), but at the time of his retirement, he was the only player in history to finish in the top 10 in both total 3PM and total FTM. He would've been a 4 in today's NBA (he spent sometime there in his last few years, but only 7% of his playing time for his career was spent at power forward), and absolutely would've been an unguardable small-ball 5 in certain matchups (he's basically the same size as Draymond but with a slightly longer reach).
That said, in the era in which he played he spent his prime as a borderline top 10 player, a solid level below Tatum who will spend his prime hanging around the top 5. A small but meaningful difference. I only thought it was noteworthy that not only is Tatum's peak higher than Pierce's peak (I don't think anyone disagrees with that), he's already passed Pierce in some career accomplishments despite being just 26. Basically the only thing that Pierce did that Tatum hasn't either already accomplished (like matching the # of all-NBA selections) or will definitely complete some day (Pierce has 10 AS selections to 5 for Tatum) is Pierce's nba finals MVP, and there's a reasonable chance that that comes sooner or later, too.
That said, in the era in which he played he spent his prime as a borderline top 10 player, a solid level below Tatum who will spend his prime hanging around the top 5. A small but meaningful difference. I only thought it was noteworthy that not only is Tatum's peak higher than Pierce's peak (I don't think anyone disagrees with that), he's already passed Pierce in some career accomplishments despite being just 26. Basically the only thing that Pierce did that Tatum hasn't either already accomplished (like matching the # of all-NBA selections) or will definitely complete some day (Pierce has 10 AS selections to 5 for Tatum) is Pierce's nba finals MVP, and there's a reasonable chance that that comes sooner or later, too.
Yeah, a Paul Pierce who plays up a position, shoots more 3s, and maybe improves his distribution a bit would be a fascinating player. He definitely was a bit early.
If Paolo Banchero's shooting continues to progress, we might get to watch a reasonable facsimile of the player Pierce might have been in today's NBA.
Yup, that's a great comp. Banchero is already a better passer than Pierce (which is impressive, and why Paolo is so intriguing as a player), but it's not hard to imagine Pierce getting better at that in today's game, where there's more of an emphasis on having scoring threats create advantages to initiate, PGs be damned.
Interesting that you think Pierce came along too early. I always think of guys like JJ Redick, who would be bombing away 10 threes a game off the bench today, as coming along too early. I think, like most greats, Pierce could have been a great player in any era. I'm not sure he'd be any more or less effective today than at his peak. He was a good not great three point shooter - would he have had a more efficient / successful career playing today shooting more threes than he did at the time?
Banchero is 6'10; Pierce, 6'7. I'm not seeing the similarities. Isn't Pierce more like Jaylen? (obviously different body types, but in terms of their games - better at slashing, mid range, just decent from three point range).
The game has really shifted in the direction of big wings who are scoring threats and also initiate. 3-point bombing is a huge change, and definitely more visible, but the shift away from pure PGs is very, very real.
Pierce had a huge wingspan, and similar physicality/strength to Banchero. They are pretty close physical profiles, despite what the height of the top of their heads suggests.
I see the comp offensively.
I think Paulo has a long way to go to have the kind of impact Pierce had defensively, though, especially as a perimeter defender who could legitimately guard 2-4. Paulo would still get roasted if ORL frequently put him on smaller wings, something Pierce did regularly, and very effectively, in the Obie days.
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Yeah, it's not perfect. Pierce was kind of a unique player. He spent a good chunk of his career at the two guard spot, but I think he'd play a lot of four in the NBA today. Pierce is still more of a wing while Banchero's profile tilts more towards a big. I do think Banchero's more like Pierce than Tatum is. Even Jaylen, he's more athletic than Pierce, but he's nowhere near Pierce's level as a primary shot creator because he doesn't have Pierce's handle.