Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top: The Man is Non-stop

Euclis20

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Tatum's assists have shot up since the beginning of the year (4.0 assists in oct/nov/dec, 5.4 assists in jan/feb), and if his current numbers hold, this will be his 5th straight season in which his per game points, rebounds and assists have all gone up. That seems fairly difficult to do.
 

Spelunker

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So couldn't watch the game today, but it looks like another awful shooting game for Tatum: that's, what, 4 of the last 7 he's been under 40%? What was the deal today: outside shot not falling at all, or was it another day he was having trouble finishing at the rim?
 

RorschachsMask

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So couldn't watch the game today, but it looks like another awful shooting game for Tatum: that's, what, 4 of the last 7 he's been under 40%? What was the deal today: outside shot not falling at all, or was it another day he was having trouble finishing at the rim?
Both, and the Grizzlies were super physical with him/hard trapping him most of the game.

He’s definitely in a bit of a shooting slump right now, I’m glad he will get plenty of rest with the ASB coming up.
 

Five Cent Head

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Some of this is Brown being out, so teams double Tatum more, and even when they don't, maybe it's harder for him to get a mismatch.

Somewhat related, this is one of my complaints about the Celtics: they often use up a lot of time bringing the ball up, so if they manage to find a mismatch, there isn't enough time left on the clock to take fullest advantage of it. Is that a valid criticism?
 

lovegtm

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Some of this is Brown being out, so teams double Tatum more, and even when they don't, maybe it's harder for him to get a mismatch.

Somewhat related, this is one of my complaints about the Celtics: they often use up a lot of time bringing the ball up, so if they manage to find a mismatch, there isn't enough time left on the clock to take fullest advantage of it. Is that a valid criticism?
Yeah, they get into their offense slowly a lot, but so do most teams.

82 games is a lot of games, and 48 minutes is a lot of minutes.
 

TripleOT

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Both, and the Grizzlies were super physical with him/hard trapping him most of the game.

He’s definitely in a bit of a shooting slump right now, I’m glad he will get plenty of rest with the ASB coming up.
The Celtics were without three of their top backcourt players. They played big almost all game, utilizing JT as a ball handler. They managed to get a comfortable win without Tatum making a basket in the second half. That kind of win should imbue even more confidence in the reserves.
 

Five Cent Head

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Yeah, they get into their offense slowly a lot, but so do most teams.

82 games is a lot of games, and 48 minutes is a lot of minutes.
Good point, thank you. As a basketball fan I often think about what might be best right now without thinking hard enough about the bigger picture. (At least I hope I only do this as a basketball fan...)
 

benhogan

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The Celtics were without three of their top backcourt players. They played big almost all game, utilizing JT as a ball handler. They managed to get a comfortable win without Tatum making a basket in the second half. That kind of win should imbue even more confidence in the reserves.
The reserves are giving CJM ample evidence that he can taper Tatum's regular season minutes after the All-Star break
 

benhogan

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And haven't they said they're giving him the Detroit B2B this week off?
I heard Brad say that but Tatum may resist. JT likes to play and frankly, he barely breaks a sweat playing a game. I imagine his summer Hanlan workouts are probably more intense than playing 38 NBA minutes over the course of 2 hours.

Detroit would be a good rest day since most of the Pistons will be focused on organizing their flights out of Logan to the Caribbean. Our scrappy reserves, going full grind, can handle them.
 

bellowthecat

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They mentioned this little nugget during the game on Friday.

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1624221412423606273?s=20&t=UQVfVe2PpISwDMR3vJgsKA


Incredible career we are watching play out every night. He beat the record for youngest to hit 1000 threes by 244 days!

www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/1461929/jayson-tatum-becomes-youngest-player-in-nba-history-to-reach-1000-3s/amp/

Tatum hit his 1,000th career 3-pointer Friday night, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to reach 1,000 threes at 24 years and 344 days old.


Tatum fittingly broke the record of his childhood friend, Washington Wizards star Bradley Beal, who made his 1,000th 3-pointer at 25 years and 223 days old.
 

Euclis20

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They mentioned this little nugget during the game on Friday.

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1624221412423606273?s=20&t=UQVfVe2PpISwDMR3vJgsKA


Incredible career we are watching play out every night. He beat the record for youngest to hit 1000 threes by 244 days!

www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/1461929/jayson-tatum-becomes-youngest-player-in-nba-history-to-reach-1000-3s/amp/
It is a very nice accomplishment, but Luka will likely break it next year. He's basically got a full year to pass Tatum (he's 362 days younger than Tatum), needs 136 more to get to 1,000, and is averaging about 185 3s per year.
 

The Raccoon

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It is a very nice accomplishment, but Luka will likely break it next year. He's basically got a full year to pass Tatum (he's 362 days younger than Tatum), needs 136 more to get to 1,000, and is averaging about 185 3s per year.
If someone shares a locker room with Kyrie Flat-Earth Irving there's nothing that can be expected of/about this person with any kind of certainty!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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As a Bruins fan I’m just glad that this has turned out better than the Seguin/Hamilton experience which was a near mirror-image in terms of acquiring elite prospects using draft picks gained from a lopsided trade with a rival team that then almost immediately and unwittingly yanked. Seguin even had his own “dunk on LeBron” moment as a rookie when he took over an ECF game against Tampa but a variety of circumstances meant he was just not destined to reach Tatumesque heights in Boston (or anywhere else). To be fair, he did get his name on the Cup though.
 

benhogan

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Here is a good video piece of Tatum increasing his threat as a roll man:

https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/2/18/23605328/operating-as-the-roll-man-is-jayson-tatum-latest-weapon-boston-celtics-jaylen-brown-marcus-smart

He has rolled 90 times in the 55 games he has participated in, per Synergy Sports. However, those 90 possessions already outweigh the 75 we saw from him last season

According to Cleaning The Glass, Tatum is currently having his most prolific season within 4 feet of the rim, finishing 71% of his attempts which places him in the 76th percentile of wings.
 

TripleOT

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According to Cleaning The Glass, Tatum is currently having his most prolific season within 4 feet of the rim, finishing 71% of his attempts which places him in the 76th percentile of wings.
Considering the degree of difficulty of some of Tatum’s drives, this is impressive. Hopefully he will try to score more off p/r action where his teammates set him up for easy looks, and less off difficult Tatum vs the World offense.
 

benhogan

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Considering the degree of difficulty of some of Tatum’s drives, this is impressive. Hopefully he will try to score more off p/r action where his teammates set him up for easy looks, and less off difficult Tatum vs the World offense.
The Smart/White/Brown pocket passes are impressive.

Agreed, hope we see more White/Smart initiating from the top with Brown/Tatum screening for each other
 

RorschachsMask

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He’s able to beat you so many ways, and that’s without his pull-up three being there. Though even that is at 35% over the last 10 games, which is a great sign heading into the second half.
 

The Mort Report

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It just really bothers me that a charity is at the whim of who wins the quarter, and how "little" the donation is compared to how much the event brings in. Just tie it to something like for every time your team scores 25 points, we add 100K. Maybe it's just my marketing background, but I think the NBA just comes off poorly with the whole thing

edit: sorry, realize this is not important in the JT thread
 
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HomeRunBaker

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It just really bothers me that a charity is at the whim of who wins the quarter, and how "little" the donation is compared to how much the event brings in. Just tie it to something like for every time your team scores 25 points, we add 100K. Maybe it's just my marketing background, but I think the NBA just comes off poorly with the whole thing

edit: sorry, realize this is not important in the JT thread
I dunno, 400k isn’t nothing and it’s 400k more than what any other league is donating based on in-game All-Star Game results as far as I know. I’ve read all week about this criticism which I don’t really understand as they aren’t obligated to donate anything.
 

The Mort Report

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I dunno, 400k isn’t nothing and it’s 400k more than what any other league is donating based on in-game All-Star Game results as far as I know. I’ve read all week about this criticism which I don’t really understand as they aren’t obligated to donate anything.
I know I know, I get it, you are right, I should be happy for those charities, and I am. However, it just grosses me out how it's also quite possible the NBA spent more money hyping up the fact they are donating than the actual donation. It's a far better ratio in this situation than most, its just one of those things that bothers me
 

slamminsammya

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I dunno, 400k isn’t nothing and it’s 400k more than what any other league is donating based on in-game All-Star Game results as far as I know. I’ve read all week about this criticism which I don’t really understand as they aren’t obligated to donate anything.
I understand the criticism. Like, if they donated just one dollar say it would clearly be bizarre at best and insulting at worst. There is a dollar number where it stops being bizarre/insulting, but I think for an organization that large its a big number. Not sure if 400K is it but I understand where Mort Report is coming from and I think I agree.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tatum’s last 10 games include:

6-18
7-17
9-25
3-16
5-15
3-15

Seems like more than a blip. I’m concerned.
You’ve seen Tatum’s progression over the past 6 seasons, you’re watching him produce career highs this season in PPG, RPG, APG and TS%……and your concerned that a 6 of 10 game stretch is more than a blip? We’ve seen similar stretches every year out of him…..were those not blips either? Ask yourself, do you think he’s suddenly regressed as a player?

Trying to talk you off ledge. He’s fine and is going to be fine. There’s nothing to see here.

View: https://youtube.com/watch?v=NuAKnbIr6TE&feature=shares
 

Euclis20

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You’ve seen Tatum’s progression over the past 6 seasons, you’re watching him produce career highs this season in PPG, RPG, APG and TS%……and your concerned that a 6 of 10 game stretch is more than a blip? We’ve seen similar stretches every year out of him…..were those not blips either? Ask yourself, do you think he’s suddenly regressed as a player?

Trying to talk you off ledge. He’s fine and is going to be fine. There’s nothing to see here.

View: https://youtube.com/watch?v=NuAKnbIr6TE&feature=shares
The only potential concern I have would be that he might be injured, and they aren't resting him because it's not something that can be fixed with rest. I don't like that he's still wrapping up his wrist (and occasionally flexing it and wincing during games).
 

benhogan

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Living out of a suitcase, no matter how nice the hotel is, sucks...

"Get back home," Tatum said, when asked where his focus is. "I haven't been home in two weeks. I miss my bed. See Deuce. Just get back home, get some home-cooked meals and get ready for Wednesday."
 

CreightonGubanich

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Tatum’s last 10 games include:

6-18
7-17
9-25
3-16
5-15
3-15

Seems like more than a blip. I’m concerned.
Be specific. What are you concerned about? That he's hurt? That he's regressed and is now a worse player than he was a month ago? That he's going to shoot 31% going forward?

I'm genuinely asking, because if it's not a short term shooting slump, I really don't know what the alternative could be. The larger sample suggests he's a first team All-NBA level player and one of the best 7 or so basketball players in the world. Poor raw shooting numbers in six games out of a random ten game sample is not a persuasive argument that that's no longer the case.
 

lars10

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Be specific. What are you concerned about? That he's hurt? That he's regressed and is now a worse player than he was a month ago? That he's going to shoot 31% going forward?

I'm genuinely asking, because if it's not a short term shooting slump, I really don't know what the alternative could be. The larger sample suggests he's a first team All-NBA level player and one of the best 7 or so basketball players in the world. Poor raw shooting numbers in six games out of a random ten game sample is not a persuasive argument that that's no longer the case.
This is bosockboy’s thing.. he probably has over 100 posts at this point stating that Tatum isn’t an mvp caliber player or top ten etc because he missed the last shot or some other cherry picked sample.. without doing any work whatsoever to compare him to any other player to check if any of his statements are close to true.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Be specific. What are you concerned about? That he's hurt? That he's regressed and is now a worse player than he was a month ago? That he's going to shoot 31% going forward?

I'm genuinely asking, because if it's not a short term shooting slump, I really don't know what the alternative could be. The larger sample suggests he's a first team All-NBA level player and one of the best 7 or so basketball players in the world. Poor raw shooting numbers in six games out of a random ten game sample is not a persuasive argument that that's no longer the case.
Let's flesh the argument out a bit, then.

There has been discussion this year of whether Tatum is being given too many minutes and whether playing him too much creates any risk of having wear down and not be in top form come playoff time.

It has been observed that Tatum is at near the very top of the league in total minutes and minutes per game, and that his workload is higher than basically all of his fellow elite peers (guys who were All-Stars/All-NBA players).

So there's no argument about the workload being very high for current NBA standards: it simply is; almost all other stars asked to carry their teams to championships don't get this workload in tyoday's NBA.

A more debatable is whether Tatum can handle it. Since entering the league he has certainly been one of the most durable players in the league, and durabulity is an ability in and of itself (see James, L.).

Another thing to consider is that Tatum is as much a 2 way player as any NBA star. He's a key part of what the Celtics are doing on both offense and defense. They don't "hide" him defensively because he is so integral to the offense, they depend on his rebounding, they will often match him up with opposing stars, eetc.

His 10-game skid comes right at the 3/4 mark of the season, so it fits right in line with what people concerned about his excessive workload might expect to see. It's not proof of anything, of course. As has been discussed, his 10-game skid isn't obviously out of line with similar struggles of other great players. But that's also not proof of anything.

But here's another thing: one of the key improvements Tatum has made to his game this year is getting to the line a lot more. In the past 2 games he has attempted just 3 free throws, and one was a tech. There isn't a 2 game strech all season where he attempted fewer FTs - his prior season low was nine FT attempts in 2 games. (Last season, when he took many fewer FTs over all, he only had as few as 3 in 2 games one time. ) So his bad games and poor shooting from three have coincided with his abandoning the drive. To me it fits (though does not prove) the "worn down" argument.
 

CreightonGubanich

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Let's flesh the argument out a bit, then.

There has been discussion this year of whether Tatum is being given too many minutes and whether playing him too much creates any risk of having wear down and not be in top form come playoff time.

It has been observed that Tatum is at near the very top of the league in total minutes and minutes per game, and that his workload is higher than basically all of his fellow elite peers (guys who were All-Stars/All-NBA players).

So there's no argument about the workload being very high for current NBA standards: it simply is; almost all other stars asked to carry their teams to championships don't get this workload in tyoday's NBA.

A more debatable is whether Tatum can handle it. Since entering the league he has certainly been one of the most durable players in the league, and durabulity is an ability in and of itself (see James, L.).

Another thing to consider is that Tatum is as much a 2 way player as any NBA star. He's a key part of what the Celtics are doing on both offense and defense. They don't "hide" him defensively because he is so integral to the offense, they depend on his rebounding, they will often match him up with opposing stars, eetc.

His 10-game skid comes right at the 3/4 mark of the season, so it fits right in line with what people concerned about his excessive workload might expect to see. It's not proof of anything, of course. As has been discussed, his 10-game skid isn't obviously out of line with similar struggles of other great players. But that's also not proof of anything.

But here's another thing: one of the key improvements Tatum has made to his game this year is getting to the line a lot more. In the past 2 games he has attempted just 3 free throws, and one was a tech. There isn't a 2 game strech all season where he attempted fewer FTs - his prior season low was nine FT attempts in 2 games. (Last season, when he took many fewer FTs over all, he only had as few as 3 in 2 games one time. ) So his bad games and poor shooting from three have coincided with his abandoning the drive. To me it fits (though does not prove) the "worn down" argument.
It's fair to question whether Tatum's wearing down due to the workload. I don't think the last two games are particularly persuasive in that direction. The other post-All Star game that you left out, against the Pacers, Tatum shot 11 free throws. To the extent he's "abandoned the drive", it may have something to do with Embiid and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the paint. It also might be referee variance, or a dozen other factors.

I don't know whether Tatum's playing too many minutes. I do know that he's said he was gassed at the end of the season last year, and that he doesn't feel that way this season. I think it's fair to trust that it's an issue on Brad and Joe's radar, and they have a plan to manage it. That doesn't mean we can't question it, of course. I just think that looking at free throw attempts in a two game sample is a recipe for confirmation bias.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's fair to question whether Tatum's wearing down due to the workload. I don't think the last two games are particularly persuasive in that direction. The other post-All Star game that you left out, against the Pacers, Tatum shot 11 free throws. To the extent he's "abandoned the drive", it may have something to do with Embiid and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the paint. It also might be referee variance, or a dozen other factors.

I don't know whether Tatum's playing too many minutes. I do know that he's said he was gassed at the end of the season last year, and that he doesn't feel that way this season. I think it's fair to trust that it's an issue on Brad and Joe's radar, and they have a plan to manage it. That doesn't mean we can't question it, of course. I just think that looking at free throw attempts in a two game sample is a recipe for confirmation bias.
And before the 11 FT game he had only 2 FTs against the Pistons. 16 in 4 games is also a season low for him. 14 in 3 games is probably a season low. It’s not the be all and end all but it is a data point.

Tatum has, recently, expressed that he is tired.When I have a chance I’ll find the quote.
 

lovegtm

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And before the 11 FT game he had only 2 FTs against the Pistons. 16 in 4 games is also a season low for him. 14 in 3 games is probably a season low. It’s not the be all and end all but it is a data point.

Tatum has, recently, expressed that he is tired.When I have a chance I’ll find the quote.
I think that, at the very least, the decreased FT rate is a "something is wrong" argument, even if it's not directly minutes (which it could be).

His style rn is noticeably different than when he's playing well, and it doesn't have much to do with 3s falling or not.
 

Eddie Jurak

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https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2023/02/28/karalis-tatum-comes-up-short-and-his-crown-is-starting-to-get-heavy-after-the-loss-to-new-york

After the win over Philadelphia, Tatum couldn't get through his postgame interview without clutching handfuls of his shorts, admitting mid-way through how exhausted he was.

After the loss to New York, he talked about missing his bed after two weeks away from home.
“It's a long season, and Jayson's been playing, as we all know, at an MVP level for most of the season,” Al Horfordsaid. “There's going to be ups and downs. And he's the last guy that I'm worried about. I know what he's about. And my biggest thing with him is making sure that he feels right. And that he's good to go in April once the playoffs start.”
What I know is what Tatum should be looking like after the All-Star break, and what the has looked like in the past. He shot nearly 10% better after the break last season. He’s made noticeable jumps in shooting and scoring after the break in each of his last three seasons.

This time, he’s stumbling out of the break.

It could be nothing … just a blip in a long season. But on a night when Boston slipped into second in the East with just about a month left to go, the blip is magnified.
 

benhogan

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If anyone wants to listen to Karalis take on Tatum ~ 29-minute mark

I think JT's tired from 2-weeks of travel. There was a point when the players were sitting on the sidelines and Marcus & Tatum were just staring straight ahead. Exhausted.

I expect CJM will start load-managing the entire team the last few weeks before the playoffs. I'm subtly happy JT is no longer in the MVP-race. This will lead him to offer no resistance in taking games off.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9UtRBx_LKc