Jayson Tatum 2021-22: Leap Year

RorschachsMask

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Is it really fair to compare Tatum's shooting percentages to previous years? For almost his entire career, he has often shared the floor with a third creator in Kyrie, Hayward or Walker. Obviously the effectiveness of those players has varied, but I think we can all agree they were guys that drew attention from opposing defenses and given Tatum better looks. This season he doesn't have either of those guys, and Jaylen has missed significant time as well. He just doesn't have the kind of supporting casts that is going to create more advantageous situations to score than he has throughout his career.

For star offensive players that lack support, I think we need to recalibrate our expectations for efficiency. Some players like Curry are freaks that can maintain their efficiency, but for a lot of players, being the only real star-level player on the court is going to lead to worse efficiency. There are naturally just going to be a lot of possessions where the offense is stagnant, Tatum gets the ball with five seconds left on the shot clock, and he just has to put up a tough shot because nobody else can do anything.

Tatum definitely should be shooting the ball better...but I think some regression in his efficiency can be expected. It can be a frustrating pill to swallow given that our expectations for Tatum are that he should be getting better and better year-over-year given his age and the history of his progression, but there is a big learning curve for him this year I think in playing mostly with more limited role players and not having a Kemba-like player to draw some attention.
There is some truth to what you say, but Tatum saw about 8 more double teams a game last season, than he has this season.

A big part of that is Ime has Tatum running PnR far less than last year (a little over 8% less of the time). Tatum is also getting more open catch and shoot threes than he has gotten in the last three seasons. His biggest issue is he’s shooting step back threes at 28% so far, after being between 37-40% the previous two years.
 

RorschachsMask

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This.

And I'm starting to wonder (probably not the only person) whether bulked up, "I'm gonna get to the line this year" Tatum has replaced "I shoot unblockable 3s at almost 40% Tatum" permanently.

He has dropped 45 points on his true shooting and is only getting .7 FTA more than last year.
The FTA is somewhat misleading, because everyone is getting to the line less. Last year he was 27th in the league in FTA per game, this year he’s 9th in the league.

Your overall point stands, but mostly he just picked the wrong summer to bulk up lol, with the new rules. I don’t think the shooting is related to that though, I think it’s pretty flukey (he’s still shooting close to his career number on C&S threes), and eventually corrects quite a bit.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is it really fair to compare Tatum's shooting percentages to previous years? For almost his entire career, he has often shared the floor with a third creator in Kyrie, Hayward or Walker. Obviously the effectiveness of those players has varied, but I think we can all agree they were guys that drew attention from opposing defenses and given Tatum better looks. This season he doesn't have either of those guys, and Jaylen has missed significant time as well. He just doesn't have the kind of supporting casts that is going to create more advantageous situations to score than he has throughout his career.

For star offensive players that lack support, I think we need to recalibrate our expectations for efficiency. Some players like Curry are freaks that can maintain their efficiency, but for a lot of players, being the only real star-level player on the court is going to lead to worse efficiency. There are naturally just going to be a lot of possessions where the offense is stagnant, Tatum gets the ball with five seconds left on the shot clock, and he just has to put up a tough shot because nobody else can do anything.

Tatum definitely should be shooting the ball better...but I think some regression in his efficiency can be expected. It can be a frustrating pill to swallow given that our expectations for Tatum are that he should be getting better and better year-over-year given his age and the history of his progression, but there is a big learning curve for him this year I think in playing mostly with more limited role players and not having a Kemba-like player to draw some attention.
I'm more here in case my post didn't sound like it. I think some of the blame does fall on Tatum, but that some of it is the surrounding cast dragging him down. One could argue the supporting cast has been ok but it also lacked shooting. It looks like the shooting woes may have solved themselves with Grant, PP, and JRich, tho. If Tatum starts hitting shots, with him, JB, and GW/PP/JR, that should be enough. I'm also not the biggest fan of DS being our 3rd scorer, that's something that will have to be fixed at some point, whether it's the offseason or sooner.
 

Kliq

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I'm more here in case my post didn't sound like it. I think some of the blame does fall on Tatum, but that some of it is the surrounding cast dragging him down. One could argue the supporting cast has been ok but it also lacked shooting. It looks like the shooting woes may have solved themselves with Grant, PP, and JRich, tho. If Tatum starts hitting shots, with him, JB, and GW/PP/JR, that should be enough. I'm also not the biggest fan of DS being our 3rd scorer, that's something that will have to be fixed at some point, whether it's the offseason or sooner.
Having guys that can hit shots is important obviously, but sometimes I think we are too simplified when we talk about the value of shooting. It's nice that Grant, Richardson, PP, etc. can knock down shots if they are left open. But are they really putting that much pressure on the defense? They don't screw up your spacing the way playing a non-shooter would, but they also aren't real creators or people that can make something happen off the dribble. It's nice to have them on offense to pair with Tatum, but there is a difference between someone like that and someone like Kemba/Kyrie/Hayward.

I noticed this when Philly swapped out JJ Redick for Richardson a few years ago. Philly's rationale was that Richardson could shoot well from outside, and was a way better defender than Redick. While that was true, they severely underestimated the kind of pressure Redick, with his off-ball movement and ability to hit shots while moving, put on opposing defenses and I think it really hurt their offense. There is a difference between a guy who hits 38% of his threes from a mostly catch-and-shoot setting, and a true elite shooter, or a player who can attack off the dribble, and the kind of spacing they provide to the star players on offense.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Another way of saying it: the complementary players, when healthy, have actually been pretty decent. Smart, Grant, JRich, RL, TL, Horford, sorta DS.....it's actually a fairly deep team. The problem has been that Jayson Tatum's shooting fell off a cliff.
Its still early but the only Celtics players with an overall LEBRON rating of >1 (please ignore if this stat is odious or meaningless to you) are, in this order: Horford, Tatum and Smart. Freedom and Brown are also slight positives but their minutes are a lot lower for obvious reasons.

There are other teams with similar concentrations like Brooklyn but that works for obvious reasons. Most of the teams people would consider elite contenders (like GSW or PHO) simply have more players playing better. Miami has a similar concentration of >1 players too but the bulk of their rotation still grades out positively. The C's do not fair as well.

That said, I agree with the view that if Tatum was shooting more in line with his career norms, the C's would likely have better results. The big question is what is responsible for his down season? Correlated with the league fall off? Health, conditioning etc? Scheme? Lack of shooting around him?
 
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benhogan

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Having guys that can hit shots is important obviously, but sometimes I think we are too simplified when we talk about the value of shooting. It's nice that Grant, Richardson, PP, etc. can knock down shots if they are left open. But are they really putting that much pressure on the defense? They don't screw up your spacing the way playing a non-shooter would, but they also aren't real creators or people that can make something happen off the dribble. It's nice to have them on offense to pair with Tatum, but there is a difference between someone like that and someone like Kemba/Kyrie/Hayward.

I noticed this when Philly swapped out JJ Redick for Richardson a few years ago. Philly's rationale was that Richardson could shoot well from outside, and was a way better defender than Redick. While that was true, they severely underestimated the kind of pressure Redick, with his off-ball movement and ability to hit shots while moving, put on opposing defenses and I think it really hurt their offense. There is a difference between a guy who hits 38% of his threes from a mostly catch-and-shoot setting, and a true elite shooter, or a player who can attack off the dribble, and the kind of spacing they provide to the star players on offense.
Kemba hasn't been KEMBA since January 2020. He barely played last season. Tatum's 3pt shot is so darn mechanical now. His step-back 3s and Open 3 % are both down (teammates have no effect on % made)

My guess is between the Olympics + working hard on his physique/foul drawing cost him offseason hours normally spent working on 3pt shooting. Only so many hours in a day. At the latest, he'll correct it this summer.
 
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Deathofthebambino

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I know that this isn't the gambling thread, but I like the Tatum for Towns-Edwards-Russell tradeoff. Wonder how much the line moves after the Tatum announcement.
I am optimistic, but I ain't putting money on the C's any time soon.

With Tatum, this team lost to the Suns without Booker and Ayton, by 21 points. With Tatum, they lost to the Clippers without Kawhi, Paul George and Ibaka. With Tatum, they got blasted by the terrible Lakers.

There are more, along with a bunch of blown leads down the stretch of games. Without Tatum, I wouldn't bet on a team as schizophrenic as this team with someone else's money. But I'm certainly rooting for you guys.
 

RorschachsMask

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I'd go with the guy actually leading his team to a 29-14 record.
Understandable, but we also saw Tatum lead the team to a similar record two years ago, when he had a much better roster around him. They were 26-11 on January 12th of that year.

Unless you genuinely believe Tatum has regressed at 23, I think it’s more a reflection of the guys around him.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Understandable, but we also saw Tatum lead the team to a similar record two years ago, when he had a much better roster around him.

Unless you genuinely believe Tatum has regressed at 23, I think it’s more a reflection of the guys around him.
Tatum was the best player on that team but he wasn't really the leader.

I'd go with Morant but the talent gap between the teams is pretty big and it's very likely to get bigger. It's crazy just how young and talented Memphis actually is. A core of Bane/Morant/JJJ is very easy to build around. I guess there's some doubt with the 3 point shots of JJJ and Morant but they are both 22 and have had some success there. F'n Bane. A core of Tatum/Brown/Bane would be really easy to build around too.
 

RorschachsMask

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Tatum was the best player on that team but he wasn't really the leader.

I'd go with Morant but the talent gap between the teams is pretty big and it's very likely to get bigger. It's crazy just how young and talented Memphis actually is. A core of Bane/Morant/JJJ is very easy to build around. I guess there's some doubt with the 3 point shots of JJJ and Morant but they are both 22 and have had some success there. F'n Bane. A core of Tatum/Brown/Bane would be really easy to build around too.
Yeah I have absolutely zero issue with anyone picking Ja, he’s a stud. I’d go with Tatum, but it’s just a personal preference thing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ja is approaching Derrick Rose MVP status. Jayson is kinda like really really good but just there. Different levels right now.
 

jezza1918

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Ja is approaching Derrick Rose MVP status. Jayson is kinda like really really good but just there. Different levels right now.
Is the GameScore stat on Basketball-Reference a worthy metric at all? I just did a quick glance comparing Tatum & Morant...found it interesting that Morant only has one game above 30 (whereas Tatum has five). On the flip side, Morant looks to have far more games in the 20s than Tatum and only 3 below 10 (tatum has 7 of these). Without thinking too deeply about it looks like Tatum's ability to completely carry his team might be a bit higher, but he hasn't played at an all-star level nearly as consistent at Morant.
Of course, if the answer to my first question is a resounding "Eff No," then the rest of my thoughts are pretty pointless.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is the GameScore stat on Basketball-Reference a worthy metric at all? I just did a quick glance comparing Tatum & Morant...found it interesting that Morant only has one game above 30 (whereas Tatum has five). On the flip side, Morant looks to have far more games in the 20s than Tatum and only 3 below 10 (tatum has 7 of these). Without thinking too deeply about it looks like Tatum's ability to completely carry his team might be a bit higher, but he hasn't played at an all-star level nearly as consistent at Morant.
Of course, if the answer to my first question is a resounding "Eff No," then the rest of my thoughts are pretty pointless.
I'm not sure what that stat is but it's possible Tatum *has* to carry his team more often than Morant. It's either him or Brown. For Memphis, it's Morant, JJJ, Bane or even Brooks. He's also played 37 games to Morant's 30.
 

jezza1918

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I'm not sure what that stat is but it's possible Tatum *has* to carry his team more often than Morant. It's either him or Brown. For Memphis, it's Morant, JJJ, Bane or even Brooks. He's also played 37 games to Morant's 30.
Makes sense...for reference (from https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html)
"GmSc - Game Score; the formula is PTS + 0.4 * FG - 0.7 * FGA - 0.4*(FTA - FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK - 0.4 * PF - TOV. Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.)."

Seems like an NBA way of trying to do something like QBR
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Ja Morant may get into the MVP conversation but he has some work to do vis-a-vis the top players in the NBA (Curry, Giannis, Jokic and Durant). Most of the advanced metrics that the league follows have Tatum and Morant rated pretty close together with Ja the better offensive player and Jayson the better defender. I love Ja and it won't surprise me if he is widely considered the best player in the game at some point. However I can't give up on Tatum's size, strength and skill-set, especially given that he is not yet 24 years old.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Its still early but the only Celtics players with an overall LEBRON rating of >1 (please ignore if this stat is odious or meaningless to you) are, in this order: Horford, Tatum and Smart. Freedom and Brown are also slight positives but their minutes are a lot lower for obvious reasons.
Just to update this since I was curious, TL and JB are now positive and Freedom is negative. Top 7 are:

Al = 3.41
JT = 2.70
MS = 1.23
TL = 0.90
JB = 0.84
Freedom = -0.19
JRich = -0.38.

And in case people were curious, the top 6 in the Association are: Jokic (6.86), Giannis, Gobert, Embiid, Curry, and Butler.

And then it goes: Porzingis, LBJ, Allen, Chris Paul, Horford, and Morant.

LEBRON must love blocked shots.
 

Cellar-Door

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Who's the last 6'2" guy to lead a championship team, OG IT like 30 years ago?

Morant is great, but I'll take Tatum.
umm... Stephen Curry?

Also Morant at 2022 6'3" list is probably the same height as 6'4" in the early 2000s Dwayne Wade
 

ManicCompression

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I'm not sure what that stat is but it's possible Tatum *has* to carry his team more often than Morant. It's either him or Brown. For Memphis, it's Morant, JJJ, Bane or even Brooks. He's also played 37 games to Morant's 30.
Pretty major indictment of the last few years that we went into Morant's rookie season thinking that the Cs had a shot at Memphis' high lottery pick and now we're at a point where the Grizzlies have surpassed the Celtics in talent.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pretty major indictment of the last few years that we went into Morant's rookie season thinking that the Cs had a shot at Memphis' high lottery pick and now we're at a point where the Grizzlies have surpassed the Celtics in talent.
Memphis moving up from like 11 or 12 to 2 in the lottery really screwed over the Celtics. The pick ended up being Nesmith. Meanwhile, with the pick Memphis got from the C's in the same draft...
 

Cellar-Door

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Memphis moving up from like 11 or 12 to 2 in the lottery really screwed over the Celtics. The pick ended up being Nesmith. Meanwhile, with the pick Memphis got from the C's in the same draft...
8/9 were the most probable picks. here are 8-14:
Jaxson Hayes
Rui Hachimura
Cam Reddish
Cameron Johnson
PJ Washington
Tyler Herro
Romeo Langford

So basically could have had 1 of those guys plus Romeo.
 

ColonelMustard

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8/9 were the most probable picks. here are 8-14:
Jaxson Hayes
Rui Hachimura
Cam Reddish
Cameron Johnson
PJ Washington
Tyler Herro
Romeo Langford

So basically could have had 1 of those guys plus Romeo.
Painful what-ifs. The talent drop-off from Herro to Romeo is huge.
 

RorschachsMask

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One nice development with Tatum is that after being atrocious in the clutch all season, he’s had two straight really good finish to close games. Obviously the Knicks game in particular, but went 3-5 with 8 points in the final two minutes+OT against the pacers.

Hit game tying shots in the last couple of seconds of both games. If he is back to his usual self in crunch time, we should significantly improve in close games.
 

tbb345

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Maybe, on the other hand we probably take Hachimura at 8/9. I don't think we would have taken Herro there, but that's just a guess.
Rumors around that time were that Ainge LOVED Herro. I think he would have taken him there
 

nighthob

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Maybe, on the other hand we probably take Hachimura at 8/9. I don't think we would have taken Herro there, but that's just a guess.
I’d rather have Peej. He’d be the perfect F to put on the floor with the JayCrew. PJ’s someone that Boston should be looking to steal. With Bridges and Hayward ahead of him and JT Thor behind him he might not be worth a second contract to the Hornets.
 

Cellar-Door

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I’d rather have Peej. He’d be the perfect F to put on the floor with the JayCrew. PJ’s someone that Boston should be looking to steal. With Bridges and Hayward ahead of him and JT Thor behind him he might not be worth a second contract to the Hornets.
I think Johnson is the guy I'd pick with hindsight, but Washington would be interesting too.
 

benhogan

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The I guess we should ignore his improved rebounding.
You can't have it bpoth ways. You can't look at career stats for what you want to be true, and stats this year for what you want to true.
I man you discussed how great he looked for 1 quarter, them come after me for using whole season as too small a sample.

You want to say his drop is absolutley nothing? Go ahead. You want to praise him for 23 points on 24 shots go ahead. You can keep saying he's great all you want. But he hasn't been near the 'almost top 5 in the league' guy some claim this year.
Taking this over to the Tatum thread.

After the game, the broadcast named him "player of the game", which I agree is silly for anyone that watched (24 shots- 23pts stinks). His last 4 minutes had 2 bad turnovers, then banishment to the corner. It was clearly a Rob Williams game on both sides of the floor. BUT JT's defense was stout on DeMar which is important. He didn't pout, he got low and challenged the Bulls' #1 scoring option without fouling. IMO that's huge progress after the last 2 seasons of lackadaisical D. Defense from JT is a combination of attitude/effort since he has all the tools to play it well. A small step, but a step nonetheless.

Offensively Tatum has been a hot mess this season. BUT it's down to one aspect SHOOTING, in particular, his 3pt shooting (Tatum Excuse List below)

As far as 'almost top 5 in the league' guy some claim this year was made by nobody here. I was probably the most bullish on Tatum (@nighthob was also) to open the season. My most outlandish call on Tatum would be Top 3 in NBA by 2023 Playoffs. That call looks really bad right now and I plan on being around here next season so if this continues I'll offer my SoSH mea culpa. BUT I do see a glimmer of hope, if he goes back to Pure Sweat this summer, regains his 3pt stroke + works on his handle he could take the leap I'm looking for with his new defense/ball sharing focus.

The Tatum shooting struggles are a head-scratcher. Here are some valid excuses IMO:
#1 Bad lineup construction. Playing with 3 non-shooters is leading to double teams and clogged lanes. Jaylen Browns 3pt% & FG% is also down noticeably.
#2 Bodybuilding focus. FTA led to 50pt bonanza's last season. So rightly JT focused on getting stronger so he could draw more fouls and play through contact. Unfortunately, the NBA decided to ref the games differently
#3 Better defense. Tatum hasn't been loafing on D as he has over the last 2 seasons. he's expending a lot of focus & energy on playing better D
#4 New system. Tatum has to adapt to IME's .5/move the ball quickly philosophy which has led to an uptick in TOs
#5 Olympics. Focused on winning Gold took him away from his Pure Sweat Summer with Hanlen
#6 More minutes. Seems like they are concentrated and sometimes JT doesn't leave the floor for extended Q4 periods. Tired legs = bad shooting, but that doesn't really explain why he opens up most games cold.
#7 New ball. The entire league is shooting worse but improving.
 

lexrageorge

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Taking this over to the Tatum thread.

After the game, the broadcast named him "player of the game", which I agree is silly for anyone that watched (24 shots- 23pts stinks). His last 4 minutes had 2 bad turnovers, then banishment to the corner. It was clearly a Rob Williams game on both sides of the floor. BUT JT's defense was stout on DeMar which is important. He didn't pout, he got low and challenged the Bulls' #1 scoring option without fouling. IMO that's huge progress after the last 2 seasons of lackadaisical D. Defense from JT is a combination of attitude/effort since he has all the tools to play it well. A small step, but a step nonetheless.

Offensively Tatum has been a hot mess this season. BUT it's down to one aspect SHOOTING, in particular, his 3pt shooting (Tatum Excuse List below)

As far as 'almost top 5 in the league' guy some claim this year was made by nobody here. I was probably the most bullish on Tatum (@nighthob was also) to open the season. My most outlandish call on Tatum would be Top 3 in NBA by 2023 Playoffs. That call looks really bad right now and I plan on being around here next season so if this continues I'll offer my SoSH mea culpa. BUT I do see a glimmer of hope, if he goes back to Pure Sweat this summer, regains his 3pt stroke + works on his handle he could take the leap I'm looking for with his new defense/ball sharing focus.
And, in my view, there is a lot of important context there that the bolded statistic misses. Sure, if Tatum's scoring efficiency was like that all season, there would be a problem. But given the fact that he's actually scored 1019 points on 844 shots, it's clear that his scoring efficiency is not nearly as bad as that stat indicates, even on a season where he's clearly struggling from the 3.

And, when his shot didn't fall, he did other things to help win the game, including some key rebounds (they still matter) and solid defense (which also matters). And he did what he could to keep the offense moving when he had the ball in his hand. He also went to the line 6 times (also matters); only DeRozan went to the line more (9).

So, he had a bad night when it comes to shooting efficiency, but had a good solid game all around, and contributed to the win.

I still maintain that a 23 year old player with Tatum's ability does not suddenly lose the ability to hit 3 pointers. Now, there may be issues that keep him from hitting 40% the rest of this season. But it's not clear he will still be at 30-32% when the season ends, either.
 

Fishy1

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Taking this over to the Tatum thread.

After the game, the broadcast named him "player of the game", which I agree is silly for anyone that watched (24 shots- 23pts stinks). His last 4 minutes had 2 bad turnovers, then banishment to the corner. It was clearly a Rob Williams game on both sides of the floor. BUT JT's defense was stout on DeMar which is important. He didn't pout, he got low and challenged the Bulls' #1 scoring option without fouling. IMO that's huge progress after the last 2 seasons of lackadaisical D. Defense from JT is a combination of attitude/effort since he has all the tools to play it well. A small step, but a step nonetheless.

Offensively Tatum has been a hot mess this season. BUT it's down to one aspect SHOOTING, in particular, his 3pt shooting (Tatum Excuse List below)

As far as 'almost top 5 in the league' guy some claim this year was made by nobody here. I was probably the most bullish on Tatum (@nighthob was also) to open the season. My most outlandish call on Tatum would be Top 3 in NBA by 2023 Playoffs. That call looks really bad right now and I plan on being around here next season so if this continues I'll offer my SoSH mea culpa. BUT I do see a glimmer of hope, if he goes back to Pure Sweat this summer, regains his 3pt stroke + works on his handle he could take the leap I'm looking for with his new defense/ball sharing focus.
A weird season for him. A lot of his issues -- which we've tolerated in other seasons, including the ISO tunnel vision, the mediocrity as a playmaker, the overly tough shots -- are magnified when he's struggling to make his threes. That goes for the team's issues as well. It's the NBA. As your star goes, you go.

The Tatum who makes ~40% of his threes or thereabouts on 7 or 8 attempts a game is really tough on other teams. He can drop 50 on you at any time. But a return to form on threes wouldn't make us a contender, obviously. He would need to take another leap in some aspect of his game: his mid-range game, his handle, his passing... all of these would help.

It's also true that things would be so much easier on him if there were a guard or forward who could reliably handle the ball. I'm ambivalent on Schroder. Sometimes it seems like he can get to the rim at will. If the guy could get his shot off from three point land without loading like a trebuchet, he'd make things so much easier on himself and on the rest of the team too.

I'm confident his 3pt shooting will get back up to 38-40% territory and still pretty bullish on his potential as a playmaker.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Tatum who makes ~40% of his threes or thereabouts on 7 or 8 attempts a game is really tough on other teams. He can drop 50 on you at any time. But a return to form on threes wouldn't make us a contender, obviously.
Cs right now are 12th in NRtg at +1.7. If JT were to make 40% of 9 3Ps a game instead of 33%, that's an extra 1.8 points per game just on his shooting. A +3.5 NRtg brings the Cs into the top 8, above BRK (+2.7) and just below MIL (+3.9). Plus, a JT that is at 40% on 3Ps probably have a few other knock-off effects (fewer transition points off misses; potentially different defenses, etc.) so it's probably more than 1.8 points added. And the Cs I'm sure would be better than 4-11 in clutch games given how poorly JT has shot down the stretch.

Embiid on Thybulle: "You can tell (Matisse) loves these type of matchups...We've played Boston three times. (Tatum) has really struggled against him. He has length, and he's athletic getting into passing lanes, and able to recover. That's huge. Every team needs that."
I'm assuming this quote is taped to JT's locker. Hopefully he'll go for 50 next time Cs play PHI.
 

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Euclis20

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It's obviously overshadowed by his inability to hit 3s at his career levels, but he really is doing a much better job getting to the free throw line, especially when you consider that the league as a whole is getting to the line less. His FT rate has gone from .258 to .288, just as the league has gone from .247 to .237. He's currently 7th in total free throws made (16th last year).
 

RorschachsMask

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It's obviously overshadowed by his inability to hit 3s at his career levels, but he really is doing a much better job getting to the free throw line, especially when you consider that the league as a whole is getting to the line less. His FT rate has gone from .258 to .288, just as the league has gone from .247 to .237. He's currently 7th in total free throws made (16th last year).
Directly ties into the tweet below, and his Ft rate is now up to .295. When (if?) his three ball normalizes this season, watch out.

View: https://twitter.com/The_BBall_Index/status/1483144592035831818?s=20
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
23,059
Huh, Sengun is having an interesting year. All the flaws of Per 36, but not bad for 19.
Skewed somewhat (possibly by a lot) from teams playing much more loosely defensively against the Rockets, and/or garbage time which is much of the time in Rocket games, but he does have an interesting skillset for sure. I’m long on him.
 

kfoss99

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2009
637
This game was a horror movie for my guy. He will get back on the righteous path.
With the seemingly infinite coaching staff, someone has to be devoted to helping Tatum.

He can get his shot back. It doesn't seem like the yips (shots not off much) & he's not Westbrook.

I'm pulling for Tatum, he can fix this.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
617
I keep wondering if he has some type of minor injury, in his shoulder / arm / hand. But that would have leaked by now - right?
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
5,743
It’s weird, because they were good, open looks. It wasn’t the case that he happened to have a bunch of step back or contested threes.

That said, I think the most likely explanation is just poor luck. Sometimes you flip a coin and it comes up heads four times in a row, it doesn’t mean the coin is rigged.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
14,068
The idea that Jayson Tatum, a career 39% 3pt shooter, somehow "lost" his scoring ability at age 23 is impossible for me to fathom. That just doesn't happen to a player with his skillset. Just last May we were marveling at the fact that he broke 50 three times in a month. Given that there is no precedent for that having happened, I am going to go with the null hypothesis until convincing proof is provided otherwise:

NBA player development curves are seldom linear; what we're seeing is likely just a large pothole in Tatum's. Could be the Olympics, or an undisclosed injury of some sort. Exacerbated by the fact that at 23, he has yet to figure out how to consistently address those nights when his trey attempts don't touch net. Paul Pierce was hardly a finished product at 23; in fact, his 2 worst 3 point shooting years were when he was 25 and 26, where he shot around 30% over 2 consecutive seasons. So, the likelihood is very high that Tatum's shooting stroke eventually recovers.

To summarize, the chances that Tatum becomes a star not long after he is traded are probably about 10x higher than the chances the Celtics would benefit from such a trade. It would be a classic 3 dimes for a ten dollar bill deal. When nothing is guaranteed, it's better to play the odds.

Still, glad to see that Stevens is looking to move away from the "run it back with Smart and the Jays" model. Tatum does need to be surrounded by players better than Marcus Smart, which really shouldn't be all that difficult for a competent GM to accomplish.