Jayson Tatum 2021-22: Leap Year

HomeRunBaker

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it's 33% higher than his regular season figures and would have been the 2nd highest in the NBA during the regular season. Its also been about the only thing that's kept this team down, and he's been a major contributor to it.
This isn’t the regular season though and none of the offenses are competing against regular season defenses. The other factor is that Tatum is playing as a defacto PG much of the time as Smart isn’t good at initiating our offense against PG pressure……the turnovers against pressure near midcourt are a product of his playoff role due to our lineup construction.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This is pretty funny from Tomek:

Playoff wins, top10 of the 2017 NBA draft: #
1 Fultz -- 3
#2 Ball -- 0
# -- #
4 J. Jackson -- 0
#5 Fox -- 0
#6 Isaac -- 1
#7 Markkanen -- 0
#8 Ntilikina -- 4
#9 Smith Jr. -- 0
#10 Z. Collins -- 8


(Note this does not count games that the player does not play in so the 5 Mavs win where Ntilikina didn't play don't count.)

View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1529469452659699712
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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RetractableRoof

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Given the ECF G5 series tied context of the game, the quality of the defense he's facing, the shoulder thing, his early shooting woes... this is probably the most complete game I've seen Tatum play this year. Pretty damn impressive, and he's only 19?
 

lovegtm

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It was pretty funny to hear the Duncd On Podcast note in their wrapup of the series that "Tatum is in the top 10 players in the NBA conversation."

The bar for him to be taken seriously seems so much higher than for other young scorers.

Call me when Joel gets out of the 2nd round, or Luka and Ja show any ability to play defense.
 

RorschachsMask

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It was pretty funny to hear the Duncd On Podcast note in their wrapup of the series that "Tatum is in the top 10 players in the NBA conversation."

The bar for him to be taken seriously seems so much higher than for other young scorers.

Call me when Joel gets out of the 2nd round, or Luka and Ja show any ability to play defense.
Nate Duncan kind of sucks, tbh. He has been late to the party every single time Tatum has made a leap.

Dude is averaging 27/7/6 in the playoffs, on a higher TS than the regular season. Oh, and has been one of the best defensive players in the playoffs.
 

lovegtm

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Nate Duncan kind of sucks, tbh. He has been late to the party every single time Tatum has made a leap.

Dude is averaging 27/7/6 in the playoffs, on a higher TS than the regular season. Oh, and has been one of the best defensive players in the playoffs.
On the plus side, Tatum is entering the "LeBron zone" where 27/7/6 has people disappointed.

And as I'll once again remind people, that 6 is while Smart is playing PG. If Tatum brought the ball up consistently like Luka or LeBron, it would be 8, just from the cheap default assists you pick up.

Anyway, f it, Tatum's in the Finals and those other dudes are all at home.
 

tbb345

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Nate Duncan kind of sucks, tbh. He has been late to the party every single time Tatum has made a leap.

Dude is averaging 27/7/6 in the playoffs, on a higher TS than the regular season. Oh, and has been one of the best defensive players in the playoffs.
I know he watches the games but every time I’ve seen a Duncan tweet or someone else has posted something he’s said on a podcast, it really seems like he just looks at box scores and plugs numbers into a spreadsheet to inform all of his takes.

I mean, from what I’ve seen, his eye for talent and assigning trade value to players is remarkably bad.

I have a friend who is a Suns fan who sent me Duncan’s top 10 prospects in I believe 2019 and he had Dennis Smith Jr at like 7….this was after Smith had already had the rep for being a gunner with no defense
 

lovegtm

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I know he watches the games but every time I’ve seen a Duncan tweet or someone else has posted something he’s said on a podcast, it really seems like he just looks at box scores and plugs numbers into a spreadsheet to inform all of his takes.

I mean, from what I’ve seen, his eye for talent and assigning trade value to players is remarkably bad.

I have a friend who is a Suns fan who sent me Duncan’s top 10 prospects in I believe 2019 and he had Dennis Smith Jr at like 7….this was after Smith had already had the rep for being a gunner with no defense
Yeah, he produces lots of content, and I'm a sucker for content when the Celtics are doing well, so I guess it's my fault for even noticing really.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Always loved Jo Jo as a player. Is he still involved with the team at all?
He passed away in 2018. The seats I typically sit in for games were directly behind his. He and his wife were the sweetest human beings on Earth. Anytime a kid was around, including mine, she would make Jo Jo take off his championship ring, and then she'd put it on the kid's hand, and let them take pictures, etc. When my son was about 7, and they would shoot tee shirts into the crowd, he didn't get one. Mrs. Jones literally grabbed him by the arm, brought him down courtside, and took about 5 tee shirts out of the cheerleaders hands and gave them to my son, who walked back with her smiling from ear to ear. I wish I had a picture of that. She either hasn't been back, or doesn't sit there anymore since he passed though.
 
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CaptainLaddie

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He passed away in 2018. The seats I typically sit in for games were directly behind his. He and his wife were the sweetest human beings on Earth. Anytime a kid was around, including mine, she would make Jo Jo take off his championship ring, and then she'd put it on the kid's hand, and let them take pictures, etc. When my son was about 7, and they would shoot tee shirts into the ground, he didn't get one. Mrs. Jones literally grabbed him by the arm, brought him down courtside, and took about 5 tee shirts out of the cheerleaders hands and gave them to my son, who walked back with her smiling from ear to ear. I wish I had a picture of that. She either hasn't been back, or doesn't sit there anymore since he passed though.
That's a very sweet story, thank you for sharing it!
 

chilidawg

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He passed away in 2018. The seats I typically sit in for games were directly behind his. He and his wife were the sweetest human beings on Earth. Anytime a kid was around, including mine, she would make Jo Jo take off his championship ring, and then she'd put it on the kid's hand, and let them take pictures, etc. When my son was about 7, and they would shoot tee shirts into the ground, he didn't get one. Mrs. Jones literally grabbed him by the arm, brought him down courtside, and took about 5 tee shirts out of the cheerleaders hands and gave them to my son, who walked back with her smiling from ear to ear. I wish I had a picture of that. She either hasn't been back, or doesn't sit there anymore since he passed though.
Great story, thanks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He passed away in 2018. The seats I typically sit in for games were directly behind his. He and his wife were the sweetest human beings on Earth. Anytime a kid was around, including mine, she would make Jo Jo take off his championship ring, and then she'd put it on the kid's hand, and let them take pictures, etc. When my son was about 7, and they would shoot tee shirts into the crowd, he didn't get one. Mrs. Jones literally grabbed him by the arm, brought him down courtside, and took about 5 tee shirts out of the cheerleaders hands and gave them to my son, who walked back with her smiling from ear to ear. I wish I had a picture of that. She either hasn't been back, or doesn't sit there anymore since he passed though.
Great stuff!!
 

bakahump

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Met Jojo at a work thing at the garden once in about 2004. He was some "Special VP of Community Outreach" or something. Nothing really to say other then he was super nice the whole time. Seemed like a genuine dude. Spoke about how great the current players (Pierce, Iverson and Nash) where. But also was emphatic how great the "older guys" were (Hondo, Cowens etc etc). Would not mention his personal stats only the championships. Sad to hear he passed away and I had missed it.
I was also kinda taken back at how short he was. Never a big guy age had sapped an inch or so....and it was just weird to be talking to an ACTAUL NBA player that was only an inch or so taller then me. Made me even more impressed when I came back and looked at his stats.
 

Just a bit outside

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Tatum couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean tonight and realized it and turned on the playmaking. Missed on two of the first three possessions of the fourth quarter and seemed to make the decision to completely abandon trying to score on his own and just started setting people up all over the floor. Really impressed that he didn’t try and force it.
 

Euclis20

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It didn't really seem like the Warriors were doing anything special against him, he just had no touch around the basket and missed WIDE open perimeter jumpers again and again. Unless he's injured, he should be far better going forward. As it is, he still made the right decision with the ball again and again - a career high in assists in his first ever finals game is impressive.
 

lovegtm

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It didn't really seem like the Warriors were doing anything special against him, he just had no touch around the basket and missed WIDE open perimeter jumpers again and again. Unless he's injured, he should be far better going forward. As it is, he still made the right decision with the ball again and again - a career high in assists in his first ever finals game is impressive.
Yup, we've seen this before from him. Even the missed FTs early were weird. He'll be fine and will figure it out.

He played good defense and set up his teammates well, so it was a 12 point win instead of a 25 point win. They all count.
 

RorschachsMask

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That felt like a growth game. During the regular season, we saw him win us games even without his shot falling, but the two stinkers the last two round? He was a negative on/off in both I believe, and didn’t do a ton else to compensate for the bad shooting.

Last night? Warriors went box-and-one on him, and he shredded them with 19 potential assists. Him being a +16 feels right, even with the trash shooting. And on the other end, warriors went 3-10 against them. They had him start on Draymond, because of his ability to switch onto all the Warriors shooters, on the millions of handoffs they do with Dray.
 

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View: https://twitter.com/DrewHanlen/status/1545155139454963712?s=20&t=efVjg7KsK11yOsLHnuS04w



https://www.truehoop.com/p/the-dollar-value-of-a-winning-nba

Players who can deliver wins at lower costs are generating Bonus Wins. Tatum contributed his 16 wins on a salary of $28.1 million. That comes to only $1.76 million per win—a bargain price that reflects a 48-percent discount on the league average! Think of it like this: The Celts only paid Tatum to deliver about eight wins ($28.1 million salary with wins costing an average of $3.35 million per win). Instead, he gave them a whopping 16. And Tatum’s high-value contract is a key reason the Celtics were able to create such a killer roster, with room under the salary cap to pay many other excellent players.
Tatum ranks 2nd in BONUS WINS behind Jokic among players no longer on a rookie contract.

 

Cesar Crespo

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Good news, he's working on the right stuff. He has to launch off of two feet more often as well.
Is this actually a thing? Like, can people change how they naturally jump? Seems like a recipe for injury.

I'm a 2 foot jumper. I can go off 1 foot but it's awkward and unnatural.
 

ManicCompression

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Is this actually a thing? Like, can people change how they naturally jump? Seems like a recipe for injury.
I can't find the source material, but I remember it being noted after Donovan Mitchell was drafted that the key to his pro vs. college success was adding one-foot jumps to his finishing package. He'd been primarily a two-foot jumper in college, but since that takes longer to load, it's only useful when there's no traffic. Being able to jump off his left or right foot enabled him to get to the rim with less space.
 

Smokey Joe

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Is this actually a thing? Like, can people change how they naturally jump? Seems like a recipe for injury.

I'm a 2 foot jumper. I can go off 1 foot but it's awkward and unnatural.
Physical therapists, athletic trainers, dance instructors, martial arts instructors, they do this sort of thing all the time. It is harder with some people then others, but the brain and muscles are very trainable.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Physical therapists, athletic trainers, dance instructors, martial arts instructors, they do this sort of thing all the time. It is harder with some people then others, but the brain and muscles are very trainable.
Training, rest and recovery are all so much more advanced than even just a few years ago. Its almost like if you are an adult who played sports in HS and college more than say a decade ago, you can almost completely disregard a lot of what you might have been doing.
 

Mooch

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The interesting thing about Tatum’s game is that he’s slowly developed a pretty ugly hole in his game from midrange and he’s also moving further from the basket on his average shot attempts. Check out this regression by year:

2017-2018:
Distance of FGA: 12.7
FG% 10-16 feet: 43.8%

2018-2019:
Dist: 13.6
FG% 10-16: 43.0%

2019-2020:
Dist: 14.4
FG% 10-16: 39.6%

2020-2021:
Dist: 14.6
FG% 10-16: 34.9%

2021-2022:
Dist: 15.2
FG% 10-16: 32.8%

When you take a look at guys like Lebron and Durant, their development in their prime years reflected their average distance dropping a few feet closer to the basket and a significant uptick in their midrange shooting percentages. Tatum needs to make this next step as well because I get the sense that the league is adjusting and forcing him into those 15 footers where he’s really inefficient.
 

Jimbodandy

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The interesting thing about Tatum’s game is that he’s slowly developed a pretty ugly hole in his game from midrange and he’s also moving further from the basket on his average shot attempts. Check out this regression by year:

2017-2018:
Distance of FGA: 12.7
FG% 10-16 feet: 43.8%

2018-2019:
Dist: 13.6
FG% 10-16: 43.0%

2019-2020:
Dist: 14.4
FG% 10-16: 39.6%

2020-2021:
Dist: 14.6
FG% 10-16: 34.9%

2021-2022:
Dist: 15.2
FG% 10-16: 32.8%

When you take a look at guys like Lebron and Durant, their development in their prime years reflected their average distance dropping a few feet closer to the basket and a significant uptick in their midrange shooting percentages. Tatum needs to make this next step as well because I get the sense that the league is adjusting and forcing him into those 15 footers where he’s really inefficient.
Good analysis.

His percentage of FGA by distance show that he reverted to too many long 2s (.188>.169>.089>.088>.100). Needs to drop some of the long 2s for sure.

However, his overall attempt percentage of 2s is at a career low (.584) by a lot, which is awesome. And his combined percentage of close (0-3) + 3s is a ridiculous .636 (.220 + .416). And his conversion rates at both of those ranges is healthy.

So he needs to do two things IMO:
--drop some of the 16-3P FGA
--work on banging 10-16 at better rates (.328 is too low)

edit: Fwiw, it seems that the "Tatum is working on getting to the rim, the line, and finishing through contact" stories might indicate that he just didn't spend a lot of his spare time working on 10-16 jumpers and floaters, which seems like a great opportunity for a guy with his length. That should be a bunny.
 

bigq

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The interesting thing about Tatum’s game is that he’s slowly developed a pretty ugly hole in his game from midrange and he’s also moving further from the basket on his average shot attempts. Check out this regression by year:

2017-2018:
Distance of FGA: 12.7
FG% 10-16 feet: 43.8%

2018-2019:
Dist: 13.6
FG% 10-16: 43.0%

2019-2020:
Dist: 14.4
FG% 10-16: 39.6%

2020-2021:
Dist: 14.6
FG% 10-16: 34.9%

2021-2022:
Dist: 15.2
FG% 10-16: 32.8%

When you take a look at guys like Lebron and Durant, their development in their prime years reflected their average distance dropping a few feet closer to the basket and a significant uptick in their midrange shooting percentages. Tatum needs to make this next step as well because I get the sense that the league is adjusting and forcing him into those 15 footers where he’s really inefficient.
Moving further from the basket is a result of Tatum increasing his volume of 3 point attempts. Over the course of the past three seasons Tatum's 3PA per game have been 7.1, 7.6 and 8.6. Those are far higher rates than Lebron or Durant had in their prime years.

Perhaps Tatum should be working on improving his midrange game. This past season Tatum took 8.8% of his FGA from 10-16 while 42% of his FGA were from 3. You are right that his FG% from 10-16 is on a decreasing trend but it is also a function of where his best looks are coming from and what the opposing defense is giving him.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm still stunned to discover that 5 of every 8 Jayson Tatum shots is either at the rim or behind the 3pt line. That's excellent discipline, especially since teams are often throwing the kitchen sink at him.
 

RorschachsMask

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I'd like to see Tatum adopt much more of this type of offense into his game: View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S3n3yb7o1Y


He certainly has the length to be productive in the mid-range on pull-ups like Durant. I think he just needs to practice it more.
I want him taking less mid range shots, he just needs to be better on the ones he takes. He’s really close to the perfect shot profile, just needs to cut out the long 2s some.

He needs to get back to to his previous level with pull-up threes, and develop a better floater game. Those two things happen and he’s looking at around 29-30 a game on a 60%+ TS.
 

JakeRae

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I'd like to see Tatum adopt much more of this type of offense into his game: View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S3n3yb7o1Y


He certainly has the length to be productive in the mid-range on pull-ups like Durant. I think he just needs to practice it more.
Midrange shots are bad. Efficient midrange offense is still inefficient offense. There’s some marginal value in having a good midrange game, but only to the extent it helps you get better shots that aren’t in the midrange, because midrange offense is bad.

Tatum should keep focusing on what he’s been focusing on: getting to the rim, getting to the line, and getting good looks from three. He should also keep improving his handle and passing. The last thing he should be doing is regressing to trying to be more like Kobe.
 

RorschachsMask

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Tatum needs to make this next step as well because I get the sense that the league is adjusting and forcing him into those 15 footers where he’s really inefficient.
This seems like an overreaction to the finals when he was gassed. What else would give you that sense?

After December 1st he averaged 28 a game on a 61% TS. Against the Nets, Bucks, and Heat, he averaged 27 a game on a 59% TS. All while dealing with some of the most aggressive defensive attention in the league, as he was the 4th most blitzed player last season.

Then the dreadful finals, which was partially the Warriors confusing him, but mostly it was him running on fumes. Just need to watch game 6 against the Bucks, guy was able to get wherever he wanted on the court. By the time the finals rolled around, he had zero burst or explosion.
 
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Mooch

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Midrange shots are bad. Efficient midrange offense is still inefficient offense. There’s some marginal value in having a good midrange game, but only to the extent it helps you get better shots that aren’t in the midrange, because midrange offense is bad.

Tatum should keep focusing on what he’s been focusing on: getting to the rim, getting to the line, and getting good looks from three. He should also keep improving his handle and passing. The last thing he should be doing is regressing to trying to be more like Kobe.
This is unnecessarily reductive. Obviously the highest points per attempt on the court are going to be at the rim and at the three point line. However, even a player like Curry still takes over 1/4 of his shots from midrange and converts them at a really high rate (over 50%). It's not like Curry passing up a 15 footer necessarily leads to a better option from 3 or at the rim every time. People who say things like "he needs to take fewer midrange shots" are missing the point entirely. It's not about shooting more of them, it's about having that shot range in his game so that teams can't force him into an area of the court where he's a net negative. Scouts talk all the time about a player being able to "score at all three levels." That middle level has to be a point of emphasis for Tatum going forward because shooting under 35% from that range will keep him from reaching his true potential as a scorer.

If he could get up to say, Jaylen Brown's level of midrange success, he would be borderline unstoppable.
 

Jimbodandy

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This is unnecessarily reductive. Obviously the highest points per attempt on the court are going to be at the rim and at the three point line. However, even a player like Curry still takes over 1/4 of his shots from midrange and converts them at a really high rate (over 50%). It's not like Curry passing up a 15 footer necessarily leads to a better option from 3 or at the rim every time. People who say things like "he needs to take fewer midrange shots" are missing the point entirely. It's not about shooting more of them, it's about having that shot range in his game so that teams can't force him into an area of the court where he's a net negative. Scouts talk all the time about a player being able to "score at all three levels." That middle level has to be a point of emphasis for Tatum going forward because shooting under 35% from that range will keep him from reaching his true potential as a scorer.

If he could get up to say, Jaylen Brown's level of midrange success, he would be borderline unstoppable.
Exactly.

Nobody is saying that Tatum should take more midrange. We're saying that the few shots that he takes in the midrange (well everyone has some) should hit a higher rate. Therefore, it's something to spend some time working on.

I don't want most starting pitchers to use their third pitch more. I just want them not to hang their third pitch for 400 foot home runs quite as often.


edit:
There’s some marginal value in having a good midrange game, but only to the extent it helps you get better shots that aren’t in the midrange
this was very well put
 

Eddie Jurak

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Midrange shots are bad. Efficient midrange offense is still inefficient offense. There’s some marginal value in having a good midrange game, but only to the extent it helps you get better shots that aren’t in the midrange, because midrange offense is bad.

Tatum should keep focusing on what he’s been focusing on: getting to the rim, getting to the line, and getting good looks from three. He should also keep improving his handle and passing. The last thing he should be doing is regressing to trying to be more like Kobe.
I disagree. I think having a good midrange game is important and even moreso in the playoffs when the defense is better.

Tatum''s problem in the midrange is that he has a fallaway that he can get (and knows he can get) in the midrange any time he wants it, no matter how tightly defended, and it will never be blocked. But it is a poor shot because he is not very accurate with it. I don't think he needs to take more midrange shots, but he needs to learn how to create good ones, open ones, and save the contested fallaways for emergenices.

When Jaylen is on, he creates open midrange jumpers for himself - usually y backing defenders off with his driving ability -that are pretty high percentage shots for him.