Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

wade boggs chicken dinner

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nighthob

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And most of the picks before Kawhi. And Kawhi as he hasn’t played a fucking minute this year and will likely never be Kawhi!!! again.
 

RorschachsMask

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He’s averaging 34/7/5 on a 69% TS in March, Celtics have a +23.5 net rating when he plays. Here is the Celtics net ratings with each rotation player OFF the floor in March.
White +25
Smart +20.8
Grant +20.4
Jaylen +18.6
Horford +15.9
Pritchard +14.5
Theis +12.3
Rob +9.4

Tatum -10.4

It’s almost hard to fathom.
 

benhogan

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Who the fuck is Nick Wright?
he's a Boston hater and Bron apologist

it's going to be fun watching him meltdown over multiple Celtic Championships
A talk radio host with a communications degree from Syracuse. And the baskets woven underwater to prove it.
the majority of sports media wingnuts are Newhouse grads, which doesn't really reflect well on the Harvard of Central NY (Sean's quote)
 

Euclis20

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Tatum wasn't letting a DLo match-up (aka a cone drill) go to waste and takes the easy one+ himself. I don't know if Jayson is a superstar yet but this is what one looks like to me.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1508230228262354944?t=HVv361noewA8U9M69K7rAw&s=19
My favorite part of that is the Tatum's between the legs crossover seemed like it was initially supposed to be the first in a series of moves (notice he doesn't go straight up into the shot), but realizes he's already created a ton of separation just with the one dribble and is like "alright, I guess." Good times.
 

BaseballJones

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the majority of sports media wingnuts are Newhouse grads, which doesn't really reflect well on the Harvard of Central NY (Sean's quote)
Sure it does. The goal is to be successful in broadcasting. Mission accomplished even for a guy like Wright. Newhouse doesn't care if you spout dumb ideas, just that you're successful in the broadcasting world.
 

benhogan

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Sure it does. The goal is to be successful in broadcasting. Mission accomplished even for a guy like Wright. Newhouse doesn't care if you spout dumb ideas, just that you're successful in the broadcasting world.
we were just kidding...Newhouse is the best at what it does.... just ask any graduate;)

I'm a mouth breathing Maxwell School grad myself, and our most celebrated graduate isn't very popular either
 

Jimbodandy

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Sure it does. The goal is to be successful in broadcasting. Mission accomplished even for a guy like Wright. Newhouse doesn't care if you spout dumb ideas, just that you're successful in the broadcasting world.
We certainly shouldn't judge the Syracuse communications program based on one dipshit. Basically everyone in the field went there, so we can use all of those dipshits too.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Here's some Tatum porn courtesy of Tomek (whom you should follow if you don't):

View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1508451878337757186?s=20&t=8Uqnua63AFQel6Bh_Cb53A


Tatum just looks absolutely unstoppable - he's got every shot: step-back three, fadeaway jumper, finger-roll, layups to either side, hammer dunk. The shimmy-fake step back three where Scal just goes "oh!" is one of the nastiest moves I've seen this year. The defender almost fell on his ass going backward.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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On the other hand, you get the feeling that the improvement—not just in results but in the process that got him here—has paid and will continue to pay more dividends than if, for example, he started the season shooting well but not working as well within the team concept, etc.

It's a total oversimplification of course but that banked in contested three against Milwaukee on opening night last year looks like a harbinger of doom in retrospect.

It has been beautiful watching these guys moving the ball and their bodies and learning in real time how much easier it is to score that way, and that the ball really does come back to you and often for a much better look than if you had just tried to iso somebody.
 

jmcc5400

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On the other hand, you get the feeling that the improvement—not just in results but in the process that got him here—has paid and will continue to pay more dividends than if, for example, he started the season shooting well but not working as well within the team concept, etc.

It's a total oversimplification of course but that banked in contested three against Milwaukee on opening night last year looks like a harbinger of doom in retrospect.

It has been beautiful watching these guys moving the ball and their bodies and learning in real time how much easier it is to score that way, and that the ball really does come back to you and often for a much better look than if you had just tried to iso somebody.
Back when he was 19, we dreamed about what Tatum would be like in five years when he had put some muscle on. We're seeing it now and it is as spectacular as we could have hoped. He goes to the hoop with force, bodies bounce off of him and he finishes at the rim - it's almost easy to forget that the knock on him was that he couldn't finish at the rim. The drive at :23 of the video above, where he finishes with his left hand, is illustrative. He makes shoulder to shoulder contact with Towns - and Tatum is trying to draw Towns' 4th foul here, so he's looking for contact - and absorbs the encounter and maintains his line to the cup.

And, this added strength is visible on the defensive end as well. A few weeks ago we saw him man up Trae Young a few times. Last night, with Al out, Tatum was needed a few times to man up on Towns and did so credibly. Just amazing versatility.

And just 19.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Up to .356 from 3. Kind of remarkable. League average is .352. His career low is .373. 5 games ago he was shooting .337.

.505/.414/.892 over his last 28 games. 29.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.6 TO. 35.2 mpg.

His last 5: .625/.560/1.000, 31.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists. 28/50 from 3.

I'd say his last 28 is a ridiculous stretch but he's done it before.

He's currently at .519 from 2 for the year. That destroys his previous high of .502 last year. His EFG% is now at .525 (his career EFG% is .525). His TS% is at .577, the highest it has been since his rookie year. He was at .576 last year, but last year the league average TS% was .572. This year, it's currently .564.

If he ever puts together a complete season, he's going to win an MVP award. This is especially true if he's shooting at an above average efficiency.
 

PedroKsBambino

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It's really a breakthrough year, at least a breakthrough second half.

In terms of age, injury history, and contract who would you trade him for----Giannis for sure. Jokic probably, and Luka probably (though one can debate that a little with the massive defensive gap in each case). That is the list for me---some would argue Morant and I respect that, but I think the likelihood he can do it for a long time is a lot lower than Tatum.

Trade value columns mid-year had Embiid above him----given health history and projection I can't get there (though i can say RIGHT NOW Embiid is more impactful);

Lebron, Durant and Curry are both better this year---just can't say that is a going to continue a lot longer.

Evan Mobley is on some lists---I haven't quite seen enough yet, but I get the concept.
 

snowmanny

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Who the fuck is Nick Wright?
He's been around for awhile. Compared to other talk radio guys I would call him better than average BUT:
Big Chiefs/Mahomes fan and gets angry if anyone ever says that they could possibly lose a game.
Has a particular hang up about Mac Jones being seen as anything but relative trash.
Was down on Tatum coming out of college (Ainge traded the #1 pick to select the fifth best player in the draft)and has had a consistent take that Tatum and the Celtics are over-hyped and won't lat it go.
Has Luka as the definite MVP and the Mavs a near-lock to make it to the Finals.
 

lovegtm

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It's really a breakthrough year, at least a breakthrough second half.

In terms of age, injury history, and contract who would you trade him for----Giannis for sure. Jokic probably, and Luka probably (though one can debate that a little with the massive defensive gap in each case). That is the list for me---some would argue Morant and I respect that, but I think the likelihood he can do it for a long time is a lot lower than Tatum.

Trade value columns mid-year had Embiid above him----given health history and projection I can't get there (though i can say RIGHT NOW Embiid is more impactful);

Lebron, Durant and Curry are both better this year---just can't say that is a going to continue a lot longer.

Evan Mobley is on some lists---I haven't quite seen enough yet, but I get the concept.
Giannis and Jokic would make me think; hard no on Luka and Morant. Defense matters.
 

Cellar-Door

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He's been around for awhile. Compared to other talk radio guys I would call him better than average BUT:
Big Chiefs/Mahomes fan and gets angry if anyone ever says that they could possibly lose a game.
Has a particular hang up about Mac Jones being seen as anything but relative trash.
Was down on Tatum coming out of college (Ainge traded the #1 pick to select the fifth best player in the draft)and has had a consistent take that Tatum and the Celtics are over-hyped and won't lat it go.
Has Luka as the definite MVP and the Mavs a near-lock to make it to the Finals.
He's basically reverse Skip Bayless, except without the long history as a sportswriter before realizing that just being a clown was more lucrative. He staked out the anti-skip LeBron position, then parlayed that (correct) position into a bunch of hot take nonsense constantly. He has no analytical chops or depth, he;s just a run of the mill shouter.
 

nighthob

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It's really a breakthrough year, at least a breakthrough second half.

In terms of age, injury history, and contract who would you trade him for----Giannis for sure. Jokic probably, and Luka probably (though one can debate that a little with the massive defensive gap in each case). That is the list for me---some would argue Morant and I respect that, but I think the likelihood he can do it for a long time is a lot lower than Tatum.
Two way wings are the most valuable commodity in the modern game and Tatum is at the top of the heap in that regard. There’s no way I’m trading Durant’s MiniMe for a big plodding center straight out of 1995. No on Doncic, as well. What he does better than Tatum is manage an offense. But Jay is a significantly better defender while being one of the real alphas out there.
 

NomarsFool

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So if you win player of the week three times in a month, you sort of have to be player of the month, right :) ?
 

RorschachsMask

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DourDoerr

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That last pass in Sacto is nice but Theis clearly wanted the long pass after running the floor - he was wide open.

edit - I'm incorrect on this - at least the wide open part. After another look, there was a Sacto big lurking alongside the paint and waiting for a pass. Tatum could have looped it over, but that'd be a pretty hard pass on the run.
 
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lovegtm

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Mmm, good stuff. This is the type of analysis that I hoped we'd see more of re Tatum, because it's been clear for awhile, from the eye test and the offensive numbers the team puts up with him, that he's warping defenses significantly.

I just assumed that the pressure he faces is the same as that of most other lead scorers, but he seems to be in more elite company than I thought, which explains a lot.
 

RorschachsMask

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Mmm, good stuff. This is the type of analysis that I hoped we'd see more of re Tatum, because it's been clear for awhile, from the eye test and the offensive numbers the team puts up with him, that he's warping defenses significantly.

I just assumed that the pressure he faces is the same as that of most other lead scorers, but he seems to be in more elite company than I thought, which explains a lot.
My favorite part is some of the random Twitter people saying defenses are giving Tatum too much respect. I know there’s some really bad coaching in the league, but if every team in the league defends someone the same way….it’s for a reason.

His best guess as to why Tatum gets defended so aggressively is the threat of pull-ups just terrify defenses. It fits too, because the three guys who get blitzed more are Steph, KD, and Lillard. It was a really interesting thread, especially coupled with the Pina article from earlier in the day.
 

lovegtm

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My favorite part is some of the random Twitter people saying defenses are giving Tatum too much respect. I know there’s some really bad coaching in the league, but if every team in the league defends someone the same way….it’s for a reason.
Yeah, this is like the Duncan LeRoux thing where they look at TS%, usage, raw assist numbers, and then rank the league's offensive players.

Thank god real NBA basketball is more complex than that, or I wouldn't have fun watching it.
 

lovegtm

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Relevant to this discussion, Zach Lowe today on Tatum:

Tatum has reached that nirvana where every one of his skills is peaking at once, amplifying each other in ways he might never have imagined.
Since Dec. 1, Tatum ranks as one of the league's most efficient pick-and-roll ball handlers and post-up players, per Second Spectrum. In that stretch, the Boston Celticshas poured in 1.14 points per chance when Tatum sets a ball screen -- fourth among 242 players who have set at least 100 picks over that span.
Tatum has leaned into two-man games with Derrick Whiteand Marcus Smart -- the Celtics most often defended by opposing point guards. Switch, and he bullies that mismatch. Double, and you're unleashing Tatum's playmaking. Drop back, and Tatum rains pull-up fire. Overplay that pull-up, and Tatum dusts you off the bounce. He has answers for any scheme.
Apex players use the breadth of their skill to manipulate defenses, almost toying with them. When you are an all-consuming threat, defenses react to every move -- every cut, glance, shoulder fake. Such power.
But the best defenses don't just wait for you to dictate terms. They adjust on the fly, spring traps, blitz, zone up. The rare players at Tatum's level have the luxury of knowing they can react to whatever they see. What a comfort that must be: Throw whatever you want at me; I'll think of the answer on the spot, because I have them all.
The most meaningful leap has been in Tatum's passing. He is getting off the ball earlier when he should, confident he'll get it back if the Celtics keep swinging it. He is rifling passes to shooters when their defenders are still lurching in his direction.
 

Smokey Joe

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Yeah, this is like the Duncan LeRoux thing where they look at TS%, usage, raw assist numbers, and then rank the league's offensive players.

Thank god real NBA basketball is more complex than that, or I wouldn't have fun watching it.
Both of those guys independently ranked Tatum in their their top ten recently.
 

lovegtm

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Both of those guys independently ranked Tatum in their their top ten recently.
Yes, below players who he is better than, because they think he's not an elite offensive creator and is better suited to be a 2nd option.
 

Auger34

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Yes, below players who he is better than, because they think he's not an elite offensive creator and is better suited to be a 2nd option.
I haven’t listed to Duncan or Leroux in forever but the times that I did listen to them, they both struck me as very bad at assessing talent and value (maybe not bad but completely different than how every NBA team sees it). They definitely both know a lot about contracts, the CBA and contract mechanisms but they both pretty clearly had no actual sources within the NBA.
All of that is fine but if I am going to listen to a podcast or read articles from NBA “insiders”, I think they actually need to have more of an insight into the process than your normal educated fan
 

SteveF

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I will say it is interesting to see how other coaches defend Tatum, especially in screening situations. Rorschach posted that tweet about how often Tatum is getting blitzed (likely something we've all noticed from watching the games), and that's not exactly a coach's first option when dealing with guys coming off of screens -- especially not 6'10" guys who can see and pass over the top of doubles. So I may have one assessment of how dangerous Tatum is in those situations, but NBA coaches seem to have a somewhat different assessment (they view him as more dangerous than I). That's instructive and forces me to reassess.

We'll see what it looks like in the playoffs when teams can gameplan and have better options for defending Tatum one on one. If it still looks like this against second round opponents -- if Milwaukee or Miami are forced to blitz him on small-small PnRs, or Tatum eats those switches alive -- then I'll probably have to change how I see Tatum. Until then, though... I think I'm with Duncan and Leroux. Probably (well, almost certainly) a top 10 player when factoring in defense. Eminently portable (as good or better off ball as on ball), but maybe not scalable at high enough efficiency to be the number 1 shot creator on a championship winner.

This season's playoffs won't be the last word (he's still only 24), but it will tell us a bit more.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Mmm, good stuff. This is the type of analysis that I hoped we'd see more of re Tatum, because it's been clear for awhile, from the eye test and the offensive numbers the team puts up with him, that he's warping defenses significantly.

I just assumed that the pressure he faces is the same as that of most other lead scorers, but he seems to be in more elite company than I thought, which explains a lot.
FWIW, DARKO has JT at 5 (caveat: it's not a rating system per se), behind Giannis, Embiid, Lebron, and Jokic. Slightly ahead of Durant. The turnaround to Tatum's season is breathtaking. Left out Lebron, since it's restricted to 5 for graphing and we should only focus on guys who made the playoffs. :)

50716

tl;dr; Tatum is now the fourth best basketball player on earth.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Relevant to this discussion, Zach Lowe today on Tatum:
Lowe says everything is peaking at once……but he just turned 24 and still has more physical development/upside in front of him. I always had him on the Pierce growth curve but he’s already a much better player than Paul was at age 24.