Jaylen or Tatum?

If the Celtics could only keep one of them, who would you prefer that they keep?

  • Jaylen Brown

  • Jayson Tatum


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BaseballJones

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Even last year, at least a couple of posters were projecting Brown’s ceiling as a poor man’s Jae Crowder. I’d argue he’s passed that already.
He's a better offensive player than Crowder ever was. Far more talented and just now putting up the same numbers. Defensively...maybe not yet. But maybe.

Crowder's best offensive season:
2016-17 (age 26) - 13.9 points, 46.3% FG, 39.8% 3pt, 5.8 rebounds

Brown's season this year:
2017-18 (age 20) - 14.5 points, 46.5% FG, 39.5% 3pt, 4.9 rebounds
 
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bosox79

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No.

You don't give away dollars so you can fit more quarters in your pockets.

Edit: don't get me wrong, AD would be great to have. But I don't think that Smart and Rozier are part of the calculus.
Unless you think Anthony Davis is a $20 bill and Kyrie and Hayward are $5 bills.
 

InstaFace

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Just for the sake of some data, here's the last 4 years' regular-season Win Shares (so, totals, not rate stats), where available, starting with 2014-15:

Anthony Davis: 14.0, 7.2, 11.0, 13.7 => 11.5
Gordon Hayward: 8.7, 8.9, 10.4, 0.0 => 9.3 excluding this year
Kyrie Irving: 10.4, 5.9, 8.9, 8.9 => 8.3

Marcus Smart: 2.9, 2.9, 3.2, 1.9 => 2.7
Terry Rozier: n/a, -0.3, 1.4, 5.6

Jayson Tatum 2017-18: 7.1
Jaylen Brown 2017-18: 4.5

No, WS isn't perfect, but it's not nothing, either.
 

Saints Rest

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I've been very impressed by JB's defense on LBJ in the few times when he's been the primary defender. JB isn't nearly physical enough (who is?) to handle LBJ every trip, but when he is on him, he uses his length and quickness remarkably well to make LBJ's life a bit harder.
 

Dotrat

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There is zero chance that Ainge is trading Gordon Hayward before he even plays one full NBA game after signing here. Plus he'd probably be looking for a new coach as well if he did that.
To clarify--he was using the trade idea to demonstrate how much progress the younger players have made.
 

DrewDawg

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Mike Gorman offered an interesting hypothetical on T&R yesterday--in light of how well Brown,Tatum and the rest of the team are doing right now, would you try to deal Kyrie and Hayward for Anthony Davis? That this is not a crazy idea speaks to the extraordinary leaps Jaylen and Jayson (as well as Rozier) have made this season.
So because this was hypothetical it doesn't have to make sense?

Try to find a somewhat viable trade in the NBA trade machine where we deal Kyrie and Gordon for Davis.
 

Dotrat

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So because this was hypothetical it doesn't have to make sense?

Try to find a somewhat viable trade in the NBA trade machine where we deal Kyrie and Gordon for Davis.
Uhm, no.

It makes sense in that it’s not outrageous to think that the current active roster could be better with Davis than with Kyrie and Hayward—independent of salary cap considerations or the need / desire to see a healthy Gordon Hayward—and that this is a testament to the advances Brown, Tatum, and Rozier have been making.
 

moly99

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I just don't understand the point of these Kyrie vs Davis or Tatum vs Jaylen hypothetical debates. It's like arguing whether you would rather find life on Mars or Titan. It's not a choice we either have the option of making or have any need to make.

If the Pelicans decide they can't build a winning team around Davis and need to trade him, they still aren't going to trade him for Kyrie and/or Hayward. Meanwhile the Celtics need their young stars to balance out the max contracts of their big 3, so they aren't trading either of Jaylen or Tatum.
 

tims4wins

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Oh sorry about that.

Basic recap (it was like 18 minutes long) is that JT can be more precise in his movements, both off the ball and off screens, as well as his first step and first moves with the ball to create easier scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
 

Ed Hillel

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Would you trade Jaylen + (picks/Rozier) for the #1 overall pick to Phoenix?
No way. Jaylen’s a proven commodity at this point, I’m not trading him for anyone short of a “next LeBron” guy, and let’s not forget Wiggins was one such guy. I certainly wouldn’t throw in other picks or Rozier, either. Not worth the risk on a team ready to compete now.
 

DannyDarwinism

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That’s pretty cool stuff. Knowing Tatum, he’ll have digested 80% of it and incorporated into his game by tonight. And if he follows Kobe’s advice and spends some time in the offseason studying Rip Hamilton, Kyrie’s gonna average 10 assists per game next year.
 

leetinsley38

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That’s pretty cool stuff. Knowing Tatum, he’ll have digested 80% of it and incorporated into his game by tonight. And if he follows Kobe’s advice and spends some time in the offseason studying Rip Hamilton, Kyrie’s gonna average 10 assists per game next year.
Yup, looks like he is already digesting it:

Celtics rookie Jayson Tatum on Kobe Bryant's "Detail" video critiquing his game: "That was really cool for me. Growing up, that was my favorite player. … I've probably watched it like 25 times already. It's very helpful information that I can take with me.
 

DrewDawg

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That’s pretty cool stuff. Knowing Tatum, he’ll have digested 80% of it and incorporated into his game by tonight. And if he follows Kobe’s advice and spends some time in the offseason studying Rip Hamilton, Kyrie’s gonna average 10 assists per game next year.
If I can remember to look, I bet we see Tatum with the foot pointed at the hoop tonight.
 

amarshal2

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The thing that resonated with me was Tatum taking indirect lines with his first step. There’s a lot of times he seems to have the advantage but he can’t exploit it quickly enough the way other players can, including guys like Jaylen. I think just fixing up that first step to be more direct by the player instead of around will make a noticeable difference.

My takeaway from the whole screen conversation is that his teammates need to set screens that allow him to shoot threes from the “pocket” instead of long 2s.
 

Devizier

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I'm curious why the media keeps phrasing it this way, most analysts seem to have a similar take. I know Tatum is a year younger, but other than that Jaylen is a better defender and also more athletic. They can both shoot and get to the rim. They both have handling issues to fix in different ways. What more do people expect out of Jaylen to make a similar statement? He's been the second or third best player on the court in the ECF, only behind LeBron and maybe Horford.
Probably because of Tatum's outrageous shooting to start the season. Plus, he's bigger (not a lot, but still).
 

amarshal2

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I'm curious why the media keeps phrasing it this way, most analysts seem to have a similar take. I know Tatum is a year younger, but other than that Jaylen is a better defender and also more athletic. They can both shoot and get to the rim. They both have handling issues to fix in different ways. What more do people expect out of Jaylen to make a similar statement? He's been the second or third best player on the court in the ECF, only behind LeBron and maybe Horford.
For me it’s Tatum’s significantly superior ability to shoot. I also don’t think their handles are that close. From others who did the hard work, Tatum is at about 50% assisted in the playoffs vs brown around 2/3s. He’s a better isolation scorer today and about 1.5 years younger.

Still, we’re all just hedging and guessing. Using current players I think Tatums ceiling is a smaller Durant type and Brown’s is some Jimmy Butler/Kawhi hybrid. They’re both currently pretty close to all-stars but pretty far from their ceilings. One, both, or neither could get there so we’ll see. The great thing is to have two bets to make instead of zero or one.
 

Koufax

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It was not so long ago we had no very good players. Now we have so many we don't know what to do with them all (when healthy). What a turnaround!
 

lovegtm

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My takeaway from the whole screen conversation is that his teammates need to set screens that allow him to shoot threes from the “pocket” instead of long 2s.
It was very, very Kobe to be obsessed with the long 2s that Tatum was giving up: "That right there, that's a shot."

I actually like post-retirement Kobe a lot--would be interesting if Tatum could work with him a bit in the offseason even. He seems weirdly into Celtics guys over the past couple years.
 

benhogan

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It was very, very Kobe to be obsessed with the long 2s that Tatum was giving up: "That right there, that's a shot."

I actually like post-retirement Kobe a lot--would be interesting if Tatum could work with him a bit in the offseason even. He seems weirdly into Celtics guys over the past couple years.
agreed, a kinder, gentler Kobe. Hope he does an analysis of Jaylen Brown next. Heck, have him do the rest of the line-up.

This is the stuff Drew Hanlan (Pure Sweat) will be working on with Tatum all summer.

thanks for posting Lovegtm
 

TripleOT

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Good stuff from Kobe, although I also disagree about using screen pockets to shoot long twos. I do like the foot placement and rip through with the leg stuff. Hanlen's teaching (from what I have seen on youtube) is more about using the bounce to break down a defender, as opposed to the old school leg positioning. It seems like a lot of Hanlen's clients use a loping stride (or big jab step) along with a low, tight crossover dribble to create space and either a driving lane or a pull up opportunity. Kobe's advice is 20th century, while Hanlen's is 21st. That said, a lot of the tips Kobe put out there makes sense.

Game two with the Cavs was the first time I saw Tatum in person. After being awed by his smoothness, I noticed how he made a lot of little mistakes early. Of course, he put it together for a nice stretch, showing what a potent weapon he is already in his young career. Between the buttery pull up jumper, the solid handle, the court gobbling stride, the crazy extension he gets on takes to the rim, and the confidence he has as a scorer, Tatum is the best rookie I've seen in person since watching LeBron in the Boston Summer League and his rookie season debut in the Garden. Tatum will be an MVP candidate, probably before his rookie deal is up.
 

Saints Rest

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It was very, very Kobe to be obsessed with the long 2s that Tatum was giving up: "That right there, that's a shot."

I actually like post-retirement Kobe a lot--would be interesting if Tatum could work with him a bit in the offseason even. He seems weirdly into Celtics guys over the past couple years.
Similar to ARod in going from extremely unlikable persona, both on and off-court/field, to being a very likable, even-handed, and insightful analyst.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Similar to ARod in going from extremely unlikable persona, both on and off-court/field, to being a very likable, even-handed, and insightful analyst.
Except for the whole rape thing which I have trouble forgetting. Obviously that case has issues but other than that Seems like a good guy.

Arod was just unlikable.
 

Imbricus

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YouTube link for anyone who wasn't able to see it on ESPN
Did not know Kobe had that level of analysis in him. He should be an assistant coach somewhere. The only points where I thought he was off regarded exploiting the pockets to take medium-long two-point shots, and that one time when he said Tatum should've passed to Brown in the corner. Had Tatum done that, I bet there's a high chance Lebron would've intercepted the pass. But Kobe does really well breaking down film.
 

DrewDawg

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Tatum is a significantly worse rebounder than Brown. Have to take that into account.
You'll need to show your work here. Tatum averaged more boards per 36 minutes (5.9 to 5.8) and had a higher rebound percentage than Brown (9% to 8.8%).
 

allstonite

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Yes? Because they are objectively better, even if it's slight and not, to quote you, "significantly worse"
 

Sam Ray Not

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eye test, health

Do you have a straight face when you're writing 5.9>5.8 and 9>8.8?
Dude. You claimed that Tatum was a "significantly worse rebounder than Brown," which is contradicted by all available evidence. If you want to expand the sample to include college (which tends to translate to the NBA much better than most college numbers) Tatum has the slight edge there, too — 7.9 to 7.0 rebounds per 36.

Do you have a straight face when you're writing "eye test, health"?
 

DrewDawg

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eye test, health

Do you have a straight face when you're writing 5.9>5.8 and 9>8.8?
Ummm---I didn't postulate that Tatum was better based on those numbers, but you said "significantly worse" and you're basing it on the eye test. We have numbers that say that isn't the case.

To paraphrase Billy Beane from Moneyball: "If he's a significantly worse rebounder, why doesn't he rebound significantly worse?"

And no one is insulting your manhood here--make the case. We'll listen. We have nothing else to do.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I think there might be some recency bias after watching Tatum get abused on the boards at the end of last night's game.
 

InstaFace

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Are those percentages and rate stats (A) adjusted for their positioning on the floor, (B) their deployment role (i.e., are they supposed to go for the rebound? crash the boards at all?), (C) their opposing matchup's rebounding skills, etc? Because if not, I have a hard time learning anything from them, and would happily credit an informed person's eye test. I'd much prefer something like "% success getting a rebound when they go for one on either end", or "% success getting a rebound when they get the first touch on it", as that would tell me more about their skills.

As my first boss in consulting once said, an average that isn't weighted by anything isn't worth the powder to blow it to hell.
 

nighthob

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No one made the claim that Tatum was a better rebounder, someone made the claim that he was considerably worse. And the numbers just don't bear that out.
 

InstaFace

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But when we're talking about numbers, garbage in, garbage out, right?

The numbers cited might be like using Range Factor to assess defensive capabilities - a bad idea, close to valueless, but not of zero value. It might be like using Range Factor across positions - absolutely terrible, and certain to lead to bad conclusions. Or it might be like using defensive win shares - not perfect, but takes enough into account that it's at least directionally correct and possibly enough to make firm conclusions.

I asked the questions because I don't know the answers, but I do know those questions are relevant. And if the answer is no, and those simple stats tell us nothing of value, perhaps there are Second Spectrum stats or something else that gives us a clearer picture that's properly adjusted for context.

I'm not going to parse Ale Xander's word "considerably", as that's subjective. But the question of what we know about their respective rebounding capabilities is something I'm interested in seeing answered.
 

nighthob

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Well, both Tatum and Brown are perimeter players for a team that prefers that its perimeter guys do the rebounding. It's not like this is the 80s and we're comparing the rebounding of a center to a guard.

RebRate basically measures the percentage of available rebounds that a player gets, so if Tatum were a "considerably worse" rebounder his RebRate should be significantly lower rather than basically the same.
 

Sam Ray Not

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There are definitely more nuanced ways to look at a player's rebounding prowess than just Reb% or Reb/36. We can also consider team role, team rebounding on/off, contested rebounding %, etc. (To throw out a classic example: the fact that Westbrook has a higher rebounding rate than Steven Adams may require some nuance). But the burden of providing that nuance remains on the person making the claim.
 

Reverend

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But when we're talking about numbers, garbage in, garbage out, right?

The numbers cited might be like using Range Factor to assess defensive capabilities - a bad idea, close to valueless, but not of zero value. It might be like using Range Factor across positions - absolutely terrible, and certain to lead to bad conclusions. Or it might be like using defensive win shares - not perfect, but takes enough into account that it's at least directionally correct and possibly enough to make firm conclusions.

I asked the questions because I don't know the answers, but I do know those questions are relevant. And if the answer is no, and those simple stats tell us nothing of value, perhaps there are Second Spectrum stats or something else that gives us a clearer picture that's properly adjusted for context.

I'm not going to parse Ale Xander's word "considerably", as that's subjective. But the question of what we know about their respective rebounding capabilities is something I'm interested in seeing answered.
I wonder if this is an area where a proper analysis might make a distinction like baseball does with "hard hit balls" in looking at fielding metrics. Like, in baseball, at least some of the teams figure out their fielding shifts weighted towards what happens with batters-pitchers on "hard hit balls," discounting weakly hit balls as a function more of random noise than what can be planned for.

I bet you could break up rebounds in similar fashion, and then have an interesting set of disaggregated stats. But if I were doing that, given the tape watching it would entail to code, I'd probably want to look just as much at "boxing out" as far as difference makers and keep some stats on that too--especially because you'll eventually want to be looking for interaction effects between the players on the floor at the same time.