Jaylen Brown, Year 7

lexrageorge

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I disagree that the only thing out there is/was Durant. Star players are always becoming available and/or looking to move on. Dallas fans are probably saying the same thing right now about not getting back fair value for Doncic before he forces a trade. Hmmmm
Seems like revisionist history when it comes to last offseason. It was clear from the outset that Brad's and Wyc's #1 priority was to get back to the Finals this season (hard to argue against that), and so there were few trades involving Brown that could have made much sense. And the comparison w/ Dallas makes little sense, as that team had little star depth beyond Luka.

If they have to unload Brown this summer, so be it; they will still get enough value in return to be able to retool around Tatum & Co. But given the team's situation last summer (before the Ime situation blew up), Brad absolutely made the right decision by keep Brown in Boston. Brad just needs to be better than Danny at reading the room regarding JB7's intentions when he hits his UFA year; shouldn't be that difficult.
 

Jimbodandy

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Ramadan ends on April 20 this year. During Ramadan, the Celtics have one day game, the final one of the regular season, versus Atlanta. The playoff opener might be a day game also. Unlike some seasons, when Ramadan ran mostly or completely during the playoffs, it will not be much of an issue for players like Brown who fast during Ramadan, and cannot hydrate between dawn and sundown.
I seriously love this place.
 

lovegtm

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I fully admit that I struggle with NBA contracts, trade rules, etc. That said, is Jaylen as an expiring contract next season worth more in what the Cs could get back in a trade, than Jaylen under a 5 year Supermax in say, year 2, if the Celtics decide to move on?
With a rising cap, that supermax contract could look fine to a team that needs a star.

You could probably get a Gobert-type haul for rotation players and picks, and then turn the picks into more of a true #2.

It seems harder to do that with an expiring, but I can see Jaylen picking his 2-4 destinations, and then having those teams need to bid against each other.
 

benhogan

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Man, didn't realize that Jaylen's DARKO looks that good relative to PG and Butler. He's also a lot younger than Butler at the same game number.
I thought Zion with a 300-game projection was a tad optimistic. He'll need to play until 30 at the rate he's going
 

CaptainLaddie

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He's probably going to make an All-NBA team at this point, and that means Supermax. Which he's earned. He's an awesome player and if Wyc/Brad don't offer it to him I don't know what they're trying to do with this franchise.
 

Euclis20

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He's probably going to make an All-NBA team at this point, and that means Supermax. Which he's earned. He's an awesome player and if Wyc/Brad don't offer it to him I don't know what they're trying to do with this franchise.
Yeah that interview with Wyc a few months back about spending now that they have a title contender is useless if he makes all-nba and they don't offer the super max. He's a 26 year old 2-way wing with no major health concerns and has steadily improved almost every year, and is already a top 20 player in his prime. What's the point of not doing everything to keep a guy like that?
 

CaptainLaddie

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Yeah that interview with Wyc a few months back about spending now that they have a title contender is useless if he makes all-nba and they don't offer the super max. He's a 26 year old 2-way wing with no major health concerns and has steadily improved almost every year, and is already a top 20 player in his prime. What's the point of not doing everything to keep a guy like that?
Exactly. JB is an elite player. He's a top 15-25 player (not to get into that discussion right now) depending on the night. He become a better player every year for 6 straight years after his debut, which is more than can be said for most players.

If he doesn't sign a Supermax that means he *really* doesn't want to be in Boston.
 

TripleOT

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Putting up 41 against the Spurs as the go to guy with Tatum load managing, JB was 18-29, only 2-10 from three, 1-2 midrange, and a ridiculous 15-17 in the paint. It is not too difficult to imagine Brown as a 30+ ppg scorer as the top gun on another NBA team. Hopefully we won’t have to see that for at least the rest of the decade.
 

Spelunker

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Yeah that interview with Wyc a few months back about spending now that they have a title contender is useless if he makes all-nba and they don't offer the super max. He's a 26 year old 2-way wing with no major health concerns and has steadily improved almost every year, and is already a top 20 player in his prime. What's the point of not doing everything to keep a guy like that?

We're concern trolling. Of course they'll offer it to him. It's extremely silly to think otherwise.
 

lovegtm

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This is why I don't get so worried about JB's on-off, and assume it's something to do with how the team and rotations are structured. He can definitely be a 1B guy, which is worth a ton of money. If you sign him to a supermax, and he's not quite enough value, you can probably move him for a haul, since he's athletic Bradley Beal with defense (when he wants).

Also, while I agree that he's not exactly a "make guys around him better" guy, the Celtics already have 3-4 of those guys. What you want is a "can take advantage of guys who make guys better" guy, and he's definitely that.

It also looks like his post-ASB performance is going to get him to All-NBA, because he's taken it up a notch.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He's probably going to make an All-NBA team at this point
I don't know how you can say he's probably going to make All-NBA if more than 50% of voters pick him at guard.

I mean we've gone through this before. Steph, Luka, Dame, and SGA are locks. Mitchell gets enough buzz that I think he makes it. So does Brown beat out Fox and Haillburton and Booker and Morant (he apparently would have cost himself about $39M if he doesn't make all-NBA) and everyone else?
 

CaptainLaddie

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I don't know how you can say he's probably going to make All-NBA if more than 50% of voters pick him at guard.

I mean we've gone through this before. Steph, Luka, Dame, and SGA are locks. Mitchell gets enough buzz that I think he makes it. So does Brown beat out Fox and Haillburton and Booker and Morant (he apparently would have cost himself about $39M if he doesn't make all-NBA) and everyone else?
Yeah, okay, that's all fair. But if you look at his numbers this year he's basically been a forward.
 

tbb345

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I don't know how you can say he's probably going to make All-NBA if more than 50% of voters pick him at guard.

I mean we've gone through this before. Steph, Luka, Dame, and SGA are locks. Mitchell gets enough buzz that I think he makes it. So does Brown beat out Fox and Haillburton and Booker and Morant (he apparently would have cost himself about $39M if he doesn't make all-NBA) and everyone else?
I think the 6 guards are close to being set in pen: Luka, Steph, Dame, SGA, Mitchell and Fox. Centers I think are stone cold locks. Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis.

Forwards are all over the map. First team is locked in with Tatum and Giannis.

After that you have (in no particular order): Randle, Butler, Markkanen, Brown, LBJ, KD.

I think Butler could have something similar to what Jaylen is going through (split votes between guard and forward). I think Jimmy is actually more of a guard while Brown is a forward but I digress.

If it were my vote I would have Butler and Brown 2nd team. Randle and Markkanen 3rd team. Who knows how it will play out though
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, okay, that's all fair. But if you look at his numbers this year he's basically been a forward.
Forsberg made the same point today: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jaylen-browns-position-vital-celtics-stars-all-nba-chances.

However, given that voters voted for JB last year at guard, there will need to be an extensive, err, re-education campaign to get voters to vote for him as forward. Abby started that the other day as I mentioned and today Forsberg comes out with an article; it will be interesting to see whether this ramps up and whether it will make a difference.

On a side note, I was driving a lot this weekend and listened to Lowe's podcast with Van Gundy. Van Gundy gave up his all-NBA vote because he thinks the current way isn't a good way to do it (no one group looks at enough games to really make the determination but he admits he doesn't have a better answer). Interestingly enough, Lowe said that he thinks about giving up his all-NBA vote because given the contract he doesn't think voters should be in a position to have that much influence on what could have very significant team-building implications. For instance, should PHI and MIL sportswriters and broadcasters be able to determine whether BOS is more or less likely to keep JB simply by voting for him as a guard or leaving him off their ballots completely?

Lowe also doesn't have a better answer but thought he raised an important point.
 

reggiecleveland

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Most professional athletes modify their diets during Ramadan as we’ve seen in the past. Probably a non-factor.
Mr team has 5 Muslim players, including 3 of my top 6. They had to fast during our provincial championship tournament this weekend. They managed it the best they could, but were out of gas by the championship game
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Forsberg made the same point today: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jaylen-browns-position-vital-celtics-stars-all-nba-chances.

However, given that voters voted for JB last year at guard, there will need to be an extensive, err, re-education campaign to get voters to vote for him as forward. Abby started that the other day as I mentioned and today Forsberg comes out with an article; it will be interesting to see whether this ramps up and whether it will make a difference.

On a side note, I was driving a lot this weekend and listened to Lowe's podcast with Van Gundy. Van Gundy gave up his all-NBA vote because he thinks the current way isn't a good way to do it (no one group looks at enough games to really make the determination but he admits he doesn't have a better answer). Interestingly enough, Lowe said that he thinks about giving up his all-NBA vote because given the contract he doesn't think voters should be in a position to have that much influence on what could have very significant team-building implications. For instance, should PHI and MIL sportswriters and broadcasters be able to determine whether BOS is more or less likely to keep JB simply by voting for him as a guard or leaving him off their ballots completely?

Lowe also doesn't have a better answer but thought he raised an important point.
I don't think the Cs are re-educating anyone about Jaylen being a forward. They seem instead to be leaning into "SHOOTING GUARD."

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1640372399047581701?s=20
 

Jimbodandy

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Or it could be them amplifying teammate Malcolm Brogdon talking about how fucking great Jaylen Brown is, but not connecting the dots.

This whole "shooting guard" vs. "small forward" conversation feels like the dozen years or so that I spent asking people to stop saying "ATM machine".
 

bigq

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Or it could be them amplifying teammate Malcolm Brogdon talking about how fucking great Jaylen Brown is, but not connecting the dots.

This whole "shooting guard" vs. "small forward" conversation feels like the dozen years or so that I spent asking people to stop saying "ATM machine".
Can you do PIN number next?

Since the ASB Jaylen has been on an impressive bender putting up 28.5 PPG, .514 FG%, .388 3P%, 6.8 boards, 3.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.The list of players that have been more impactful over that period has to be quite short. He’s got his eyes on the the dual prizes of All NBA and NBA Champion and I am thrilled to be along for the ride.
:popcorn:
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Or it could be them amplifying teammate Malcolm Brogdon talking about how fucking great Jaylen Brown is, but not connecting the dots.

This whole "shooting guard" vs. "small forward" conversation feels like the dozen years or so that I spent asking people to stop saying "ATM machine".
You had tens of millions of dollars riding on whether people used "ATM" or "ATM machine"? :)

If JB doesn't get supermax, the megathread about whether he's staying or leaving next year will be epic. Probably both in a good way and bad way.
 

RorschachsMask

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Or it could be them amplifying teammate Malcolm Brogdon talking about how fucking great Jaylen Brown is, but not connecting the dots.

This whole "shooting guard" vs. "small forward" conversation feels like the dozen years or so that I spent asking people to stop saying "ATM machine".
Obviously I agree that the position thing is stupid, but he has no chance to make all nba at guard, and has a pretty damn good chance if he’s named exclusively at forward.
 

Cellar-Door

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i think this has been one of the best stretches of his career the last week plus, he's turned up his defense, and his passing has looked good. You can live with a bit of looseness in the handle if he's getting the kind of looks (and making them) he has, and he's passing better.

Hopefully he makes all-NBA they offer him the extension and he signs it, locks in probably 2 more years for this window.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Mr team has 5 Muslim players, including 3 of my top 6. They had to fast during our provincial championship tournament this weekend. They managed it the best they could, but were out of gas by the championship game
I can’t speak to them but we see this year after year during Ramadan where performance isn’t affected and in some cases these players have phenomenal games. If I had to guess it is that these professionals place greater importance in modifying their diets to be able to perform at their peak. Some have come out and flat out said this.
 

brendan f

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Voters are instructed to select the player at the position he plays most often. So if the voters do what they are supposed to do, he would be selected as a forward. That being said, tweener players have been robbed in the past, garnering higher overall point totals than their counterparts who ended up being selected. Middleton lost out in 2020, splitting votes at G/F. Hopefully we won't see that repeat.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The person running their social media account is probably unaware of any effects calling Brown a shooting guard might have.
Then that person should be fucking fired, because it's not like SoSH is the only way blasting away at this message. The comments in response to that tweet are pretty clear.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Deathofthebambino

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Can you do PIN number next?

Since the ASB Jaylen has been on an impressive bender putting up 28.5 PPG, .514 FG%, .388 3P%, 6.8 boards, 3.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.The list of players that have been more impactful over that period has to be quite short. He’s got his eyes on the the dual prizes of All NBA and NBA Champion and I am thrilled to be along for the ride.
:popcorn:
I am going to be starting a "Keep the Mask on" campaign if it continues.
 

Deathofthebambino

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TBH, I highly doubt a tweet is going to have much or any impact on how the voters vote.
I tend to agree, but this isn't just about getting voters to do their jobs correctly. IMO, the more important issue is the organization supporting Jaylen publicly in the endeavor. If the team can say they did everything they could, and it didn't work, and as a result, they can't offer the Supermax, maybe Jaylen will be less inclined to walk away and take the non-supermax max here instead of somewhere else...Instead, Jaylen who appears to be completely plugged into this stuff can view as the team actively undermining him getting the Supermax.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I know a lot of folks around here didn't like the Jaylen contract when he signed it in 2019, but he took $15mil+ less than the max to come back here (putting aside the fact that $11mil of what he did sign for was incentive based). I said at the time that October that the contract would be a steal by Xmas, and I still stand by it.

This is his time to cash in for being a top 20 player in the NBA, and the C's need to be supporting that in every possible way. That thread went on for way too long, and stopped being about his contract, but to see what this guy has become since that time should make everyone want him around for years to come:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jaylen-brown-re-signs-for-4-years-115-million.28627/
 

m0ckduck

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Yeah, okay, that's all fair. But if you look at his numbers this year he's basically been a forward.
Yeah, but look at his player page on ESPN, it says "shooting guard." We'd like voters to be more nuanced, but there's always Pudge Rodriguez's 1999 MVP trophy standing in the corner as evidence to the contrary.

First team is locked in with Tatum and Giannis.

After that you have (in no particular order): Randle, Butler, Markkanen, Brown, LBJ, KD.
I'm preparing to be super annoyed by how this plays out, because if Jaylen is treated as a guard, four of the five above are going to make it:

KD has the lamest case IMO, having played 42 games to date. He's been great when on the court, but... jesus.
Butler: second-lamest case. Worst stats than JB by every account, really no more a forward than JB is.
Randle at least has the monster stats, but plays no defense. He'll benefit from playing for the Knicks, especially given how starved for accolades the NYC media apparatus is at this moment.
Markkanen and LBJ I can live with. LBJ is a like a rich man's KD this season: slightly more games, similar stats, plus an all-time scoring record that shouldn't really be taken into account but I'm at peace with the fact that it will be.
 

Deathofthebambino

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And just to be clear, Brandon Ingram is apparently a no-brainer forward. He's 6'8, averages only 5.0rpg, but 5.4apg, and has a 30.7 usage rate.

That must mean Trey Murphy III, who is also 6'8, and also on that team, and also starting on a nightly basis, is a shooting guard, right (with McCollum at the point)? I mean, he's basically their version of Grant Williams. Williams and Murphy both take exactly 62.2% of their FGA from 3, per 36, Grant averages 6.3rpg/2.3apg, while Murphy per 36 averages 4.4rpg/1.6apg. Murphy is at 16.0% usage, while Grant is at 13.0%.

What makes Murphy a guard, and Grant a forward?

This whole fucking thing is broken.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hearing this a lot in here about Julius Randle playing no defense or can’t defend and wondering where that’s coming from. Earlier in the year that may have been the case and he still has moments of disinterest on that end as all players who carry their teams offensive load do…..but the entire Knicks defense, including Randle, has been pretty good over the last several months.
 

CaptainLaddie

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And just to be clear, Brandon Ingram is apparently a no-brainer forward. He's 6'8, averages only 5.0rpg, but 5.4apg, and has a 30.7 usage rate.

That must mean Trey Murphy III, who is also 6'8, and also on that team, and also starting on a nightly basis, is a shooting guard, right (with McCollum at the point)? I mean, he's basically their version of Grant Williams. Williams and Murphy both take exactly 62.2% of their FGA from 3, per 36, Grant averages 6.3rpg/2.3apg, while Murphy per 36 averages 4.4rpg/1.6apg. Murphy is at 16.0% usage, while Grant is at 13.0%.

What makes Murphy a guard, and Grant a forward?

This whole fucking thing is broken.
Agreed. I think they should just do 5 guys regardless of position. The sport is practically positionless anyway -- maybe 4 F/G and 1 Center? Or 1 G, 1 F, 1 C, and 2 whatever you want?
 

Euclis20

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Hearing this a lot in here about Julius Randle playing no defense or can’t defend and wondering where that’s coming from. Earlier in the year that may have been the case and he still has moments of disinterest on that end as all players who carry their teams offensive load do…..but the entire Knicks defense, including Randle, has been pretty good over the last several months.

View: https://twitter.com/cynicalknicks/status/1638985032046989322?s=20


I haven't watched every Knicks game, but every time I see them he's invisible at best on defense, and it seems somewhat noteworthy that the Knicks do far better defensively when he's on the bench than when he's on the court (117.1 DRtg when he's on the court, 109.3 DRtg when he's on the bench).
 

Deathofthebambino

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Agreed. I think they should just do 5 guys regardless of position. The sport is practically positionless anyway -- maybe 4 F/G and 1 Center? Or 1 G, 1 F, 1 C, and 2 whatever you want?
Looking at the Pels even more.

Ingram played very little with Zion and vice versa. Their injuries overlapped.

If Zion is there, the starting lineup would look like this:

Valencunias (obvious center)
Zion (obvious power forward)
McCollum (obvious point guard)

Apparently, if Murphy goes back to coming off the bench, does that mean Herbert Jones is now a guard keeping Ingram at forward?

Fuck it, I'm aggravating myself.
 

Jimbodandy

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I know a lot of folks around here didn't like the Jaylen contract when he signed it in 2019, but he took $15mil+ less than the max to come back here (putting aside the fact that $11mil of what he did sign for was incentive based). I said at the time that October that the contract would be a steal by Xmas, and I still stand by it.

This is his time to cash in for being a top 20 player in the NBA, and the C's need to be supporting that in every possible way. That thread went on for way too long, and stopped being about his contract, but to see what this guy has become since that time should make everyone want him around for years to come:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jaylen-brown-re-signs-for-4-years-115-million.28627/
Reread the first four pages of that thread. No surprises.

Hearing this a lot in here about Julius Randle playing no defense or can’t defend and wondering where that’s coming from. Earlier in the year that may have been the case and he still has moments of disinterest on that end as all players who carry their teams offensive load do…..but the entire Knicks defense, including Randle, has been pretty good over the last several months.
I'm taking a sabbatical from posting DARKO, since everyone disregards it when it doesn't match their eyes. But Randle's career .6 steals and .3 blocks can't help but paint a picture of a guy who plays zero defense. It's not SSS. Like it's hard for a guy his size and length to block less than one shot every three games.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Reread the first four pages of that thread. No surprises.



I'm taking a sabbatical from posting DARKO, since everyone disregards it when it doesn't match their eyes. But Randle's career .6 steals and .3 blocks can't help but paint a picture of a guy who plays zero defense. It's not SSS. Like it's hard for a guy his size and length to block less than one shot every three games.
What do blocks and steals have to do with rotational team defense? Defensive stats are pretty much garbage in grading an individual defender within a team concept when that defender is relying on teammates for the scheme to be effective.
 

Jimbodandy

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What do blocks and steals have to do with rotational team defense? Defensive stats are pretty much garbage in grading an individual defender within a team concept when that defender is relying on teammates for the scheme to be effective.
I'm saying that the data says that he plays no defense, both the impact metrics and the box score ones. That leaves the eyeball test, which you imply makes Randle not bad I guess. I'm not organized enough to see how he ranks in opposing FG against or deflections or something else.
 

TripleOT

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I can’t speak to them but we see this year after year during Ramadan where performance isn’t affected and in some cases these players have phenomenal games. If I had to guess it is that these professionals place greater importance in modifying their diets to be able to perform at their peak. Some have come out and flat out said this.
This issue is more with hydration than diet. It could be an issue if a team has a mid afternoon game, like a 3 pm starting time. Playing 40 minutes after not having any water for 10+ hours could lead to problems. An early day game isn’t as problematic.