Jaylen Brown - underrated?

JakeRae

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Maybe I am but again barring injury, I think Jaylen's floor is to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league. Assuming you agree that Jaylen has shown that he can play a pretty high level of individual defense like Porter (leaving out things like rotations, which the 'Zards didn't do very well), to turn Jaylen into Otto Porter basically means turning this shot chart


into this shot chart:


which doesn't seem very far fetched to me, particularly since Porter doesn't have much of a handle and his jump shot is more a product of hard work than great mechanics (https://theringer.com/wizards-otto-porter-jr-breakout-season-shooting-182800da9510).

And as for Stanley Johnson's second season, while I don't see him play at all, it strikes me as not a a good comp for two reasons: (1) he apparently drastically overhauled his shot before the start of the season, and (2) he was in Van Gundy's doghouse for at least a good bit of the year.

Maybe Porter is a bit optimistic but my bigger point is that athletic wings who can guard multiple positions and hit three pointers are incredibly valuable in today's NBA and Jaylen has already shown to me that he has the skills to be one of the best at that.
It is strange to speak of a player's floor as something that assumes both significant defensive improvement and significant shooting improvement. Why is it impossible that he never improves at all? What about only a little? What about a decent amount, but not all the way to Porter's performance? Why do you assume he'll learn to play NBA defense. He's terrible at it right now and plenty of players never figure it out. His steals rate is also a bad sign as to his instincts on that end.

I like Brown a lot. I'm reasonably optimistic about his future. But, his floor is a lot closer to Gerald Green than it is to Otto Porter or Jae Crowder.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Maybe I am but again barring injury, I think Jaylen's floor is to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league. Assuming you agree that Jaylen has shown that he can play a pretty high level of individual defense like Porter (leaving out things like rotations, which the 'Zards didn't do very well), to turn Jaylen into Otto Porter basically means turning this shot chart

Maybe Porter is a bit optimistic but my bigger point is that athletic wings who can guard multiple positions and hit three pointers are incredibly valuable in today's NBA and Jaylen has already shown to me that he has the skills to be one of the best at that.
This is a pretty big thing to leave out though. He absolutely showed flashes of high level on the ball defense. He also was pretty clueless overall on team defense. Most rookies are, but Jaylen didn't show particularly well in college either. If his team defense doesn't develop at the same rate as his peers, he'll lose a lot of value in a system that often relies on switching, even if he's playing excellent man defense.

Using a shot chart from a guy who just had a season with 62.8 TS% as a "not very far fetched" development curve is a major stretch to me. Neither Ray Allen nor Paul Pierce ever did that in their career. That type of improvement would in no way represent a floor of any reasonable expectation. If it is, than I guess his median expectation is a 6'7" Steph Curry?

I don't want this to come off as if I'm down on him, but I do think your notion of "floor" is pretty far off.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I'm not much into forecasting guys, but Stanley Johnson shot sub-40% from the field his rookie year and and ~35% from the field his second year. He's a full 10% worse around the basket than Jaylen. Athletically he's a good comp, but he's about as good of a shooter as Marcus.
I think you're missing the "at the time of the draft" part of that sentence. Johnson, playing as a freshman in the same conference a year earlier, was slightly behind Jaylen in 2PT% (47.8% vs. 48.2%) and substantially better at 3PT% (37.1% vs. 29.4%) and FT% (74.2% vs. 65.4%).

Jaylen's jumper looks pretty good to me going forward, but his college numbers were pretty worrying.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It is strange to speak of a player's floor as something that assumes both significant defensive improvement and significant shooting improvement. Why is it impossible that he never improves at all? What about only a little? What about a decent amount, but not all the way to Porter's performance? Why do you assume he'll learn to play NBA defense. He's terrible at it right now and plenty of players never figure it out. His steals rate is also a bad sign as to his instincts on that end.

I like Brown a lot. I'm reasonably optimistic about his future. But, his floor is a lot closer to Gerald Green than it is to Otto Porter or Jae Crowder.
I guess a semantics discussion on what "floor" means would be appropriate here but I'm thinking (hoping) no one wants to go there. I mean JB's true floor is that his hip never heals (or for some other reason) and he doesn't play another game in his life.

OTOH, if you want to say that his floor means that he never gets better, I guess I can understand that but at least that would mean he's the 6th to 8th person off the bench for a playoff team.

For my tastes, I don't think it's so strange to add projection to the analysis since he's 20 years old and the vast majority of 20 year olds who get picked 3rd in the draft do get better. YMMV.

But whether Brown turns out to be Harrison Barnes or Otto Porter or DeMarre Carroll or Stanley Johnson or even Wesley Johnson, but barring significant injury, I'm pretty sure that JB isn't spending one day playing international ball in the next 10 years.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I guess a semantics discussion on what "floor" means would be appropriate here but I'm thinking (hoping) no one wants to go there. I mean JB's true floor is that his hip never heals (or for some other reason) and he doesn't play another game in his life.

OTOH, if you want to say that his floor means that he never gets better, I guess I can understand that but at least that would mean he's the 6th to 8th person off the bench for a playoff team.

For my tastes, I don't think it's so strange to add projection to the analysis since he's 20 years old and the vast majority of 20 year olds who get picked 3rd in the draft do get better. YMMV.

But whether Brown turns out to be Harrison Barnes or Otto Porter or DeMarre Carroll or Stanley Johnson or even Wesley Johnson, but barring significant injury, I'm pretty sure that JB isn't spending one day playing international ball in the next 10 years.
I would say ignore catastrophic injury risk and assume he has as much NBA career as he can earn. I'd call that the floor. So Jordan Mickey's floor is overseas player. Jaylen Brown's is... well, it depends on what kind of improvement he has.

I agree with you that projection should be part of the analysis - what would a 20 year old Jae Crowder have looked like in the NBA? Probably an unmitigated disaster.

On the other hand, projecting him up to the star level seems possible but not necessarily likely.

Good but not All Star NBA starter seems about right for his floor. A realistic worst case scenario. On a shit team he would already have realized being an NBA starter.
 

DJnVa

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But whether Brown turns out to be Harrison Barnes or Otto Porter or DeMarre Carroll or Stanley Johnson or even Wesley Johnson, but barring significant injury, I'm pretty sure that JB isn't spending one day playing international ball in the next 10 years.
TEAM USA BABY!!!
 

LondonSox

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Maybe I am but again barring injury, I think Jaylen's floor is to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league. Assuming you agree that Jaylen has shown that he can play a pretty high level of individual defense like Porter (leaving out things like rotations, which the 'Zards didn't do very well), to turn Jaylen into Otto Porter basically means turning this shot chart


into this shot chart:


which doesn't seem very far fetched to me, particularly since Porter doesn't have much of a handle and his jump shot is more a product of hard work than great mechanics (https://theringer.com/wizards-otto-porter-jr-breakout-season-shooting-182800da9510).

And as for Stanley Johnson's second season, while I don't see him play at all, it strikes me as not a a good comp for two reasons: (1) he apparently drastically overhauled his shot before the start of the season, and (2) he was in Van Gundy's doghouse for at least a good bit of the year.

Maybe Porter is a bit optimistic but my bigger point is that athletic wings who can guard multiple positions and hit three pointers are incredibly valuable in today's NBA and Jaylen has already shown to me that he has the skills to be one of the best at that.
Lol wot?
He's not great defensively, undisciplined.
His shot is not great at this point and his college numbers are not good.
Floor, that requires significant improvement at two areas....our of two.
 

DJnVa

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Lol wot?
He's not great defensively, undisciplined.
His shot is not great at this point and his college numbers are not good.
Floor, that requires significant improvement at two areas....our of two.
We get it, he's not on the Sixers.
 

slamminsammya

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At the end of the day its a silly argument about a word with no strict definition. But personally I think people look ridiculous saying any rookie has a 'floor' that is an upper echelon starter in the NBA.

A related issue is I think I value Jae Crowder much more than many people in here.
 

DannyDarwinism

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At the end of the day its a silly argument about a word with no strict definition. But personally I think people look ridiculous saying any rookie has a 'floor' that is an upper echelon starter in the NBA.

A related issue is I think I value Jae Crowder much more than many people in here.
I think it's about what are reasonable expectations for growth as much as it's about the definition of "floor". Again, Otto Porter just had a better season shooting the ball than Ray Allen or Paul Pierce ever had. Projecting Jaylen to do that is completely unsupportable to me. Porter made a massive leap in shooting efficiency this year, while also dramatically cutting down his turnover rate (he had 43 TOs all year in 2605 minutes, while Brown had 68 in 1341 minutes). If Brown does either of those things in the next couple of years while showing moderate improvements in other areas, I'll be very, very happy.

Agree totally on your last point.
 

Drocca

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It is preposterous to say that any first year player's floor is "one of the best three and D guys in the league" barring injury. The exceptions are the exceptional - Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It is preposterous to say that any first year player's floor is "one of the best three and D guys in the league" barring injury. The exceptions are the exceptional - Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis.
I think the category of non 3&D guys expands past these three. I'd include multi-dimensional talents such as Kawhi, Heyward, Paul George (list not meant to be exhaustive), even Gallinari and Chandler Parsons in this group and it would also include those who don't play D - Rudy Gay, Carmelo, Joe Johnson, Harrison Barnes, etc. Otto Porter is something like the 10th to15th best small forward in the league in my estimation.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think it's about what are reasonable expectations for growth as much as it's about the definition of "floor". Again, Otto Porter just had a better season shooting the ball than Ray Allen or Paul Pierce ever had. Projecting Jaylen to do that is completely unsupportable to me. Porter made a massive leap in shooting efficiency this year, while also dramatically cutting down his turnover rate (he had 43 TOs all year in 2605 minutes, while Brown had 68 in 1341 minutes). If Brown does either of those things in the next couple of years while showing moderate improvements in other areas, I'll be very, very happy.

Agree totally on your last point.
I also agree on your last point.

I'm not saying that JB is going to have a TS% of .620 but there's some context behind that number. Porter doesn't do much other than sit around and wait for Wall and Beal to create shots for him. He doesn't have much of a handle and doesn't really have a post-up game. For example, Porter took 339 3Ps last season. Of those, on over 84% of those shots, he didn't have a defender near him (which is why Porter can shoot such a high percentage - 44% - even though he has a pronounced dip in his mechanics) and over 37% (127) didn't have a defender within 6 feet. Even with respect to his 2Ps, only 16.5% were tightly contested (defender within 0-2 feet).

All in all, over 88% of Porter's shots were either 3Ps with no defender closer than 4 feet of him or 2P shots with no defender closer than 2 feet from him.

Otto Porter was the beneficiary of a Lot of open shots.
 

Drocca

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I think the category of non 3&D guys expands past these three. I'd include multi-dimensional talents such as Kawhi, Heyward, Paul George (list not meant to be exhaustive), even Gallinari and Chandler Parsons in this group and it would also include those who don't play D - Rudy Gay, Carmelo, Joe Johnson, Harrison Barnes, etc. Otto Porter is something like the 10th to15th best small forward in the league in my estimation.
You miss my point entirely.

Saying anyone's floor after one year is "one of the best three and D guys in the league" is asinine.

The only players, regardless of type of player, that have floors that high after one year are exceptional talents such as the three I mention.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It is preposterous to say that any first year player's floor is "one of the best three and D guys in the league" barring injury. The exceptions are the exceptional - Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis.
I don't understand this, in the sense that, to me, "3&D guys" are generally backups. In terms of the 2007-2008 Celtics, James Posey, not Paul Pierce, was the 3&D guy.

"One of the best 3&D guys in the league" is almost damnation with faint praise. An exceptional player, or even a non-exceptional guy who is still a no doubt NBA starter, isn't (at least to me) a 3&D guy.
 

the moops

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If James Posey was one of the best 3 & D guys in the league, he wouldn't have been a backup to Paul Pierce.

We probably should identify who the best 3 & D guys are in order to properyl determine whether Jaylen's floor is preposterous or not. So, who are the best 3 & D guys in the league?

Avery Bradley? Danny Green? Trevor Ariza? Kris Middleton?
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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If James Posey was one of the best 3 & D guys in the league, he wouldn't have been a backup to Paul Pierce.

We probably should identify who the best 3 & D guys are in order to properyl determine whether Jaylen's floor is preposterous or not. So, who are the best 3 & D guys in the league?

Avery Bradley? Danny Green? Trevor Ariza? Kris Middleton?
Klay Thompson comes to mind. And I don't think Brown's floor is Klay Thompson.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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You miss my point entirely.

Saying anyone's floor after one year is "one of the best three and D guys in the league" is asinine.

The only players, regardless of type of player, that have floors that high after one year are exceptional talents such as the three I mention.
Yes I missed your point. Thanks for clarifying.

JB was a high draft pick. Do you think it's preposterous to say that Joel Embiid's floor - barring injury - is to be one of the best 10 centers in the league?

Assuming Ben Simmons plays next year, I'm not sure it's going to be preposterous to say that he's going to be one of the 15 best forwards in the league.

I didn't think that saying he's going to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league was a really high bar to cross but apparently people feel differently. Again, YMMV.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If James Posey was one of the best 3 & D guys in the league, he wouldn't have been a backup to Paul Pierce.

We probably should identify who the best 3 & D guys are in order to properyl determine whether Jaylen's floor is preposterous or not. So, who are the best 3 & D guys in the league?

Avery Bradley? Danny Green? Trevor Ariza? Kris Middleton?
Klay Thompson comes to mind. And I don't think Brown's floor is Klay Thompson.
Danny Green is a 3&D guy. Trevor Ariza is. PJ Tucker is. Jae Crowder is. Kris Middleton is probably something more.

Otto Porter is a really good 3&D guy.

Klay Thompson is a lot more than that.

Again, this is all in my mind. I'm sure reasonable people can disagree as to who is a 3&D guy and who is not.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If James Posey was one of the best 3 & D guys in the league, he wouldn't have been a backup to Paul Pierce.

We probably should identify who the best 3 & D guys are in order to properyl determine whether Jaylen's floor is preposterous or not. So, who are the best 3 & D guys in the league?

Avery Bradley? Danny Green? Trevor Ariza? Kris Middleton?
I guess I always understood the phrase differently. "Limited player overall, but can do these 2 important things well." Kahwi Leonard, to me, is a well-rounded superstar player, not a 3&D guy, even though he is an elite defensive player and a career 39% shooter from three. If the rest of his game was lacking, then he's be a 3&D guy.
 

bowiac

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I'm curious whether the stat folks (@bowiac ?) have looked at the impact of team success on draft pick performance trends.
It's a good question, but not one I've seen studied. There are so few cases of top picks ending up on good teams that you're not going to get much differentiation there. I guess you could study the performance of low picks, and see whether they develop better on good teams or bad teams, as you'll have more variation there. My sense is it will be very noisy, but it's a good idea for
study.

There's also a selection bias issue of course. Good teams may be more likely to draft well: that's how they got good in the first place. Kawhi was recognized by stats models as one of the top players in the draft ahead of time, and then he got taken by one of the top teams. Separating those two means you need an independent estimate of how good a pick was outside of where he was taken in the draft. We've got stats models for that, but they carry with them their own pitfalls.
 

bowiac

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It seems to me the age of 3&D guys being backups is mostly past given where the league is headed. There are a few I can think of still like Mike Dunleavy, but that's as much an issue of age as anything else. Certainly the "best" 3&D guys are no longer backups, and haven't been for a bit now.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's a good question, but not one I've seen studied. There are so few cases of top picks ending up on good teams that you're not going to get much differentiation there. I guess you could study the performance of low picks, and see whether they develop better on good teams or bad teams, as you'll have more variation there. My sense is it will be very noisy, but it's a good idea for
study.

There's also a selection bias issue of course. Good teams may be more likely to draft well: that's how they got good in the first place. Kawhi was recognized by stats models as one of the top players in the draft ahead of time, and then he got taken by one of the top teams. Separating those two means you need an independent estimate of how good a pick was outside of where he was taken in the draft. We've got stats models for that, but they carry with them their own pitfalls.
What if you assume that, for the most part, being drafted by the "right" or "wrong" team isn't going to make or break a player. Look instead at how good they are as rookies (or by age) relative to their career peak, how quickly they reach 85% of peak value, things like that.
 

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I always thought a 3&D guy was someone who was better than average at those 2 things and not particularly good at anything else (handle, passing, penetrating). The point of the phrase is to describe certain guys - usually wings - who can help at both ends despite not having well-rounded (offensive) skill sets.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Danny Green is a 3&D guy. Trevor Ariza is. PJ Tucker is. Jae Crowder is. Kris Middleton is probably something more.

Otto Porter is a really good 3&D guy.

Klay Thompson is a lot more than that.

Again, this is all in my mind. I'm sure reasonable people can disagree as to who is a 3&D guy and who is not.
What else does Klay Thompson do, exactly? 66% of his shots this season came without a dribble.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What else does Klay Thompson do, exactly?
I thought the whole point of the monikor of "3&D" is that they can't do anything else other than shoot threes and play defense. Most importantly, they can't create their own shot.

If you don't think Klay Thompson can't create his own shot on his regular basis, well we'll just have to agree to disagree but I will say that at no point was I intimating or even trying to state that Klay Thompson was Jaylen Brown's floor.

And before the responses come in, no I am not saying that Jaylen Brown won't be able to create his own shot as he gets experience. That's why I considered a "3&D" guy to be a floor.

I guess I've taken too many liberties with the definition of terms here?
 

Drocca

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Yes I missed your point. Thanks for clarifying.

JB was a high draft pick. Do you think it's preposterous to say that Joel Embiid's floor - barring injury - is to be one of the best 10 centers in the league?

Assuming Ben Simmons plays next year, I'm not sure it's going to be preposterous to say that he's going to be one of the 15 best forwards in the league.
Yes, both of those things are preposterous. I'm honestly just not sure what you think floor means in this context.

Anthony Bennet was the number one overall pick, if we're going by "top picks." His floor, which has been realized, is "not an NBA player."
 

Drocca

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One of the best 3 and D guys in the league is towards the high end of any likely outcome for Jaylen Brown because "one of the best" anything is on the high end of any likely outcome for any player in any sport. For that matter, "one of the best" is on the high end of any likely outcome for any person in any endeavor.

You may quibble and say "but 3 and D players are not super valuable" but that's also completely false. The best 3 and D guys play in All-Star games because 3 & D are two of the three (rebounding being third) most valuable skills for an NBA player.

Jaylen Brown's floor, given good health, is just another NBA player. Replacement level. That's me being kind to him but I think his play this year earned him that respect. His ceiling, if you really squinted hard and projected 5 years out and had everything fall together, is regular All-Star. Most likely he will fall somewhere between that and "one of the best" 3 & D guys is way closer to regular All-Star than replacement level.
 

Drocca

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Sorry, last thing. Are you saying that Ben Simmons, if he plays next year, will be one of the 15 best forwards NEXT YEAR?

If so, yes, that is insane.
 

slamminsammya

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Lets bring it on back from this ridiculous jargon discussion. At times Jaylen displayed a really good sense for making cuts. At other times he had to be told where to go. I think in the context of the Celtics IT - Al Horford offense he can really blossom offensively off the ball if he develops his cutting instincts. The "where the hell am I supposed to be" will subside with experience (hopefully, plenty of examples where this didn't happen).
 

DannyDarwinism

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I thought the whole point of the monikor of "3&D" is that they can't do anything else other than shoot threes and play defense. Most importantly, they can't create their own shot.

If you don't think Klay Thompson can't create his own shot on his regular basis, well we'll just have to agree to disagree
Eh, maybe he can, but he doesn't, really. At least not as much as Otto Porter, or other guys we generally thing of as "3 and Ds". In addition to the 66% of his shots being pure catch-and-shoots as G&MB cites, this year, 75% of Klay's 2pt FGs were assisted and 95.5% of his threes were. Porter was at 66.5% and 96.6%, respectively. For reference, both of those are higher than Danny Green, Trevor Ariza, Robert Covington and Avery Bradley.

Since you have referenced his draft position as a reason to account for his high floor, here's a list of wings taken top 5 in the past decade:

2006- Bargnani, Adam Morrison,
2007- Durant, Jeff Green
2008- Beasley, Mayo (maybe you'd include Kevin Love as a wing?)
2009- Harden, Tyreke (both had primary initiator potential coming into the draft)
2010- Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson
2011- Derrick Williams
2012- Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2013- Anthony Bennet, Oladipo, Porter
2014- Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Exum (drafted as a PG but may be turning into a 3&D guy)
2015- D'Angelo Russell, Mario Hezonja

There's some pretty, pretty low floors in there.
 

heavyde050

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Sorry, last thing. Are you saying that Ben Simmons, if he plays next year, will be one of the 15 best forwards NEXT YEAR?

If so, yes, that is insane.
Agree 100%. I could be wrong, but I thought Simmons had a reputation of not being a great shooter.
I know his ability to dribble and pass is sublime for someone his height (6'10"), but I was under the impression he really wasn't a great shooter.
In summary, there is only an extremely small chance Simmons is a top15 forward next year.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Sorry, last thing. Are you saying that Ben Simmons, if he plays next year, will be one of the 15 best forwards NEXT YEAR?

If so, yes, that is insane.
I meant that assuming Simmons plays for a full season in 2017-18, I can see lots of ways he'll project to be a top 15 forward in 2018-19: i.e., after one year of playing. You seemed to think only the supergreats could be evaluated like this.

I'm obviously not going to change your mind but as I alluded to earlier, JB is going to have a better career than Anthony Bennett. (Some might say he already has.) He's also not going to end up being Wesley Johnson. Or Adam Morrison. So whatever you think is his "floor," it's higher than those 3 guys.
 
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kenneycb

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Eh, maybe he can, but he doesn't, really. At least not as much as Otto Porter, or other guys we generally thing of as "3 and Ds". In addition to the 66% of his shots being pure catch-and-shoots as G&MB cites, this year, 75% of Klay's 2pt FGs were assisted and 95.5% of his threes were. Porter was at 66.5% and 96.6%, respectively. For reference, both of those are higher than Danny Green, Trevor Ariza, Robert Covington and Avery Bradley.

Since you have referenced his draft position as a reason to account for his high floor, here's a list of wings taken top 5 in the past decade:

2006- Bargnani, Adam Morrison,
2007- Durant, Jeff Green
2008- Beasley, Mayo (maybe you'd include Kevin Love as a wing?)
2009- Harden, Tyreke (both had primary initiator potential coming into the draft)
2010- Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson
2011- Derrick Williams
2012- Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2013- Anthony Bennet, Oladipo, Porter
2014- Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Exum (drafted as a PG but may be turning into a 3&D guy)
2015- D'Angelo Russell, Mario Hezonja

There's some pretty, pretty low floors in there.
Were Klay's stats you quoted above similar last year? I imagine they'd be pretty different given he's now become the third option on a team with two generational scorers.
 

Devizier

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Jaylen Brown's floor is still a JAG like Mo Harkless, IMHO.

That's using a literal definition of floor, and does not represent my expectation of what he will become.
 

Imbricus

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That's using a literal definition of floor, and does not represent my expectation of what he will become.
The way "floor" is used to describe to describe college players in terms of NBA players does imply some kind of expectation, because obviously none of those players is as good as any NBA player that is described as their "floor." In terms of absolute floor -- without any projection or expectation -- any particular college player might not get any better, conceivably, so that person's floor is exactly what that person is at that moment. What if that player breaks his leg and never recovers his athleticism? What was Greg Oden's floor coming out of college, by a scout's measure? Probably he was given a much higher floor than the level he actually realized, after all his injuries. There is crap luck too.

I think the common usage of floor/ceiling is along the lines of "When this person has reached his peak in the NBA, assuming nothing very unusual (repeated microfracture surgeries e.g.), what is the best/worst we should expect him to be?" That involves some degree of expectation and projection. But you can use it more literally -- I just don't think when you talk about a college player's floor in the NBA, that's how the word is being used, or else the floor for all of them would be "college player."

Anyway, I think the intensity/depth of this discussion may reflect more a certain boredom for Celtics news which Ainge will no doubt supply us with before long ... ;)
 

Eddie Jurak

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Agree 100%. I could be wrong, but I thought Simmons had a reputation of not being a great shooter.
I know his ability to dribble and pass is sublime for someone his height (6'10"), but I was under the impression he really wasn't a great shooter.
In summary, there is only an extremely small chance Simmons is a top15 forward next year.
He has the reputation of being an atrocious shooter, to the point where the Ringer's Kevin O'Connor proposed that he may be shooting with the wrong hand.
 

mauf

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Any discussion of JB's "floor" needs to acknowledge the possibility that his decent 3FG shooting was a SSS mirage, and that his FT%, which didn't improve as much as you'd hope/expect, is the better gauge of his shooting ability.

But I'm bullish. He's demonstrated the ability to take the ball to the hole against NBA defenders, and he has played standout on-ball D in spurts. I'm not too worried that he'll learn defensive rotations and shoot well enough to keep defenses honest -- which probably would make him at least as good as Jae Crowder (though not as valuable once Crowder's ridiculous contract is taken into account). And that's still a 50th percentile outcome at best -- JB's athleticism and approach leave a lot to dream on, even if he didn't get to make as many highlight-reel plays as he would have on a 25-win team.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I always thought a 3&D guy was someone who was better than average at those 2 things and not particularly good at anything else (handle, passing, penetrating). The point of the phrase is to describe certain guys - usually wings - who can help at both ends despite not having well-rounded (offensive) skill sets.
It's important in todays game to recognize that players themselves aren't only of a "3 and D" skillset but offensive schemes actually look to identify players to fill a 3 and D position. Bruce Bowen was one of the first to popularize this position and as this is a copycat league it has taken on a new life of it's own.

Someone like Jerebko plays the 3 and D "position" but not all that well as he isn't a great shooter nor a good defender.....this is why he plays the role in limited minutes. Then you have the DeMarre Carroll's who can play this position for major minutes as he's a good 3-point shooter and very good defender. We saw Gerald Green play this role in some playoff games and he can't defend a lick......it is now more of a position on the floor that everyone is looking to fill with teams valuing spacing today much more than some of us valued a decade ago.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jaylen Brown's floor is still a JAG like Mo Harkless, IMHO.

That's using a literal definition of floor, and does not represent my expectation of what he will become.
Harkless is actually a fantastic floor for Jaylen if you're careful enough to recognize that Harkless made major strides this season and is still himself in his developmental curve in his age 23 season after also being a one-and-done college player. He's looks like he's going to be a pretty good player in this league and the 4/$40m deal Portland offered him shows they feel the same way. I'll bet his next contract is a very healthy one with the leap he's taken in his perimeter shooting.

Overall, this is the best floor I've heard for Jaylen as his worst case.
 

ALiveH

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This is for the dreamers out there (highlight reels make everyone look like an all star). Personally, my favorite part is the body language of his teammates. They all seem to love him. The sideline celebrations when he posterizes someone are already at an all-NBA level. He's got some physicality to his game when he chooses to use it and will get a lot stronger. Also, the degree of difficulty on those couple plays where he changes hands in mid-air is off the charts.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Any discussion of JB's "floor" needs to acknowledge the possibility that his decent 3FG shooting was a SSS mirage, and that his FT%, which didn't improve as much as you'd hope/expect, is the better gauge of his shooting ability..
First half .427/.304/.721
2nd half .494/.379/.605

His 3PA doubled in the 2nd half too (1.3 to 2.6). He had the same amount of FTA but he got worse as the season went along from the line.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Anthony Bennet was the number one overall pick, if we're going by "top picks." His floor, which has been realized, is "not an NBA player."
There's not a single mock draft that had him as the #1 talent, though. The highest I'm seeing is #7, and as an upside lottery ticket, not a sure thing. The 2016 draft had about 6 guys that there was no real consensus of their value at picks 3-9, Brown being one of them. Brown was also more highly-ranked than Bennett coming out of high school as well.

I suppose this is all semantics, though.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think the common usage of floor/ceiling is along the lines of "When this person has reached his peak in the NBA, assuming nothing very unusual (repeated microfracture surgeries e.g.), what is the best/worst we should expect him to be?" That involves some degree of expectation and projection. But you can use it more literally -- I just don't think when you talk about a college player's floor in the NBA, that's how the word is being used, or else the floor for all of them would be "college player."
This is my point, said a lot better. Since "floor" is a projection, and assumes away injury, adding in a low level of improvement that is projectable from what we've seen on the court seems like the most useful tool when discussing 20 year olds. I mean yes you can define "floor" as where a player is at if he never improves, but where's the sport in that? If JB never improves, we know exactly what he's going to be (but that is still better than Wesley Johnson).

Anyway, I think the intensity/depth of this discussion may reflect more a certain boredom for Celtics news which Ainge will no doubt supply us with before long ... ;)
VERY much agree with this.
 

the moops

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This is my point, said a lot better. Since "floor" is a projection, and assumes away injury, adding in a low level of improvement that is projectable from what we've seen on the court seems like the most useful tool when discussing 20 year olds. I mean yes you can define "floor" as where a player is at if he never improves, but where's the sport in that? If JB never improves, we know exactly what he's going to be (but that is still better than Wesley Johnson).
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This is true, but Jaylen Brown can still improve quite a bit, and still not sniff the title of "one of the best 3 & D guys in the league".

To me, that title is closer to his ceiling than his floor.
 

mauf

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This is true, but Jaylen Brown can still improve quite a bit, and still not sniff the title of "one of the best 3 & D guys in the league".

To me, that title is closer to his ceiling than his floor.
"3 and D" is a weird label to apply to Jaylen, even as a projection. The whole idea of a "3 and D" guy is that he doesn't bring much else; Jaylen is already too good at driving to the hole and (for a guy his size) rebounding to fit the "3 and D" mold.

Avery Bradley is a "3 and D" guy. If Jaylen learns to shoot and defend as well as AB, he'll be a superstar, not "one of the best 3 and D guys in the league."
 

Eddie Jurak

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"3 and D" is a weird label to apply to Jaylen, even as a projection. The whole idea of a "3 and D" guy is that he doesn't bring much else; Jaylen is already too good at driving to the hole and (for a guy his size) rebounding to fit the "3 and D" mold.

Avery Bradley is a "3 and D" guy. If Jaylen learns to shoot and defend as well as AB, he'll be a superstar, not "one of the best 3 and D guys in the league."
This is largely how I think about 3 and D guys, although I would not even call Avery that because I think it understates what he brings to the table.