Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million

lovegtm

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I don’t get why Jaylen is playing tonight. Not “don’t get” as a synonym for “don’t agree”—I literally don’t understand the thought process.

They’ve been super-conservative with injuries all year, even against good opponents. Jaylen clearly had issues out there against the Rockets. And they keep clearing and playing him when he has a chance to get 9 straight days off?
 

benhogan

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I don’t get why Jaylen is playing tonight. Not “don’t get” as a synonym for “don’t agree”—I literally don’t understand the thought process.

They’ve been super-conservative with injuries all year, even against good opponents. Jaylen clearly had issues out there against the Rockets. And they keep clearing and playing him when he has a chance to get 9 straight days off?
Perplexing. Didn't like the grimace after the dunk, I'll be surprised if he plays tonight. Squeezing one more game out of Jaylen pre-All-Star break seems short-sighted. Plus I'd rather have other players, like Smart/GW going 100%, then a hobbled JB playing.
 

lovegtm

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Perplexing. Didn't like the grimace after the dunk, I'll be surprised if he plays tonight. Squeezing one more game out of Jaylen pre-All-Star break seems short-sighted. Plus I'd rather have other players, like Smart/GW going 100%, then a hobbled JB playing.
He's currently "probable."

I get that it's a tough stretch to finish out the season, and I also get that the Celtics really don't want the 4-seed. But man.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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I don’t get why Jaylen is playing tonight. Not “don’t get” as a synonym for “don’t agree”—I literally don’t understand the thought process.

They’ve been super-conservative with injuries all year, even against good opponents. Jaylen clearly had issues out there against the Rockets. And they keep clearing and playing him when he has a chance to get 9 straight days off?
I'm super concerned about the medical staff. Seems like they've been bad since we replaced the old crew.
 

lexrageorge

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Sometimes injuries look worse (or better) on TV than they really are. Recovery from an injury isn't always linear. And maybe the thought process is that a Brown on limited minutes is better than no Brown at all? Or who knows, it could be gamesmanship to keep Doc guessing.

I'm super concerned about the medical staff. Seems like they've been bad since we replaced the old crew.
Explain which injuries have been the result of the medical staff.
 

bellowthecat

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When did the medical staff change? It seems difficult to discern much about their performance this year because the staff has been so vigilant about including every little thing on the injury report as a way to give players load management days without incurring fines.
 

benhogan

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Sometimes injuries look worse (or better) on TV than they really are. Recovery from an injury isn't always linear. And maybe the thought process is that a Brown on limited minutes is better than no Brown at all? Or who knows, it could be gamesmanship to keep Doc guessing.
+1 for Belichick IR gamesmanship.

I'm also a buyer of (1)load mgmt (2)Nov-March nights off for nicked up starters (3)next man up - extended minutes for the rotational bench to develop an experienced 9-10man playoff rotation by April.

This has been CBS past strategy and why I'd be mildly surprised to see a nicked up JB playing tonight.

also a 100% Smart or GW > ~75% JB
 
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InstaFace

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The Clippers are one of the teams we should be measuring ourselves against. There are only a handful of teams in the league against whom I'd advocate taking a bit of a risk in order to put our best foot forward, and for me that list is limited to our main EC playoff rivals (TOR, IND, PHI, MIA) plus WC super-teams (i.e., Beat LA).

Plus we kinda got screwed on our trip out west and this is our chance to turn it around on them, and have momentum going into the break. If Jaylen is hobbled that's one thing, but if he's merely sore, I get putting him out there for 15-20 minutes and seeing where we're at score-wise as we get into the second half.

I will say, from watching him stagger off the court, I figured he was toast for weeks if not a month with a pulled hammy or something. Do we really know what happened there?
 

benhogan

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The Clippers are one of the teams we should be measuring ourselves against. There are only a handful of teams in the league against whom I'd advocate taking a bit of a risk in order to put our best foot forward, and for me that list is limited to our main EC playoff rivals (TOR, IND, PHI, MIA) plus WC super-teams (i.e., Beat LA).

Plus we kinda got screwed on our trip out west and this is our chance to turn it around on them, and have momentum going into the break. If Jaylen is hobbled that's one thing, but if he's merely sore, I get putting him out there for 15-20 minutes and seeing where we're at score-wise as we get into the second half.

I will say, from watching him stagger off the court, I figured he was toast for weeks if not a month with a pulled hammy or something. Do we really know what happened there?
I believe Brad said he got kicked by Russ in the calf going for the rebound. So it could be just an owie. I definitely overreact to all Sox/Celtic injuries.:oops:
 

NomarsFool

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I have to trust that CBS knows that one game vs. the Clippers is less important than JB's health. So, if they are letting him play it's because he's okay.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Sometimes injuries look worse (or better) on TV than they really are. Recovery from an injury isn't always linear. And maybe the thought process is that a Brown on limited minutes is better than no Brown at all? Or who knows, it could be gamesmanship to keep Doc guessing.


Explain which injuries have been the result of the medical staff.
Well, that's not something I can answer.

I do think there was a misdiagnosis on Hayward's ankle pain preceding his second surgery. If you read his posts about it, he was concerned with the plate causing irritation and the medical staff kept saying hat wasn't it, but it turned out to be the problem. He could have gotten it removed earlier than he did.

It also seems like there are a lot of mysteries floating around like Hayward's foot pain that took weeks to figure out, and Time Lord's hip. I'm just not confident in the medical staff. Maybe they're fine, but I think it bears watching.
 

NomarsFool

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There are different groups, though. You have the trainers, which are looking after the players on game day, evaluating whether they can play, getting them ready if they can, and evaluating whether they should come out, etc.

The physicians who diagnose injuries/other ailments are a different group. The training stuff isn't trying to figure out what is going on with TL's hip. That's his doctors.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What do people think Jaylen Brown's ceiling is? Has your ceiling on him changed since the beginning of the year?

It's pretty clear Tatum has separated himself from Brown but how good can Brown be? Top 15 Celtic? Top 10? That's assuming he plays his whole career here.

Are people still clinging to Jimmy Butler? I was thinking Corey Magette with a 3 point shot and defense prior to the season but he's already more than that.
 

Devizier

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Butler is probably still his ceiling but he’ll need to make some significant improvements in creating his own shot and on defense to get there. Jaylen simply doesn’t break down defenders the way Butler does. Given where his handle was when he entered the league it would be quite something if he can get there. I don’t know how they measure up exactly but Butler certainly plays like a bigger dude than Jaylen as well. The strength is probably the least of my concerns though.
 

nighthob

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Jaylen is a rarity, he’s a SG garbageman and legitimately one of the best in the NBA at it. He’s on target to be one of the best third options in the NBA, and if he ever gets good at creating his own shot a possible top 15 guy.
 

benhogan

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Jaylen is a rarity, he’s a SG garbageman and legitimately one of the best in the NBA at it. He’s on target to be one of the best third options in the NBA, and if he ever gets good at creating his own shot a possible top 15 guy.
It may be semantics BUT defensively I see JB playing the 4, guarding AD, Siakam and Giannis, saving Tatum for the perimeter. JB is still growing and getting stronger, his defense will improve with more strength going forward.

On offense, JB is excellent in transition and plays off initiators like JT/Kemba/GH in the half-court. Brown is the C's best spot-up corner 3pt shooter (45.5% this season vs 33.7% last season). I wouldn't be shocked to see that continue to improve since he has a good understanding of his role (unlike last seasons mess).

JB is still leaping so I'm not sure who to compare him to but expect him to be a top 10 NBA player by 2022 season. His raw # growth may be hampered by playing with Tatum, but his offensive efficiency #s should be top20 with all the attention JT will get.
 
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bowiac

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Is that current? I'd have thought Jaylen made a bigger leap this season.
Jaylen grades better on the box-only version of the metric:

28664

For whatever reason, Jaylen has not graded well in the on/off data over the last few years, so he doesn't pop as much in the on/off aware version.
 

benhogan

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I still think his most likely ceiling is realized somewhere else as he is traded with picks for the next superstar to pair with Tatum
Nah, he fits perfectly with Tatum, they compliment each other well

Hayward will probably be the one traded this summer
 

amarshal2

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Hayward isn’t getting traded unless it’s a S&T. He’s got a player option that he could do better financially by declining (perhaps not in AAV but in security). If he picks up his option he’s probably getting some assurances.
 

lovegtm

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I still think his most likely ceiling is realized somewhere else as he is traded with picks for the next superstar to pair with Tatum
I actually agree with this: with Jaylen locked into a good contract and still having upside, he's a return any team can pitch easily to themselves and their fanbase. The problem is finding the right trade--the only guy I immediately see is Beal, which then makes things tough with Hayward and makes Kemba way less valuable, but that's probably not a good enough reason not to do a deal.

Beal/Tatum/Smart/Langford/Grant is an insanely intriguing wing core--the asset preservation part of me just hates what it would entail for Hayward and Kemba.

If Beal doesn't happen, someone else probably will come free in the next year. Jaylen may enter a zone starting next year where you are hoping he gets better, he is a good complementary guy on a good contract, but you're always looking to turn his 70 cents into a dollar if you can.

(Unrelated rant: can we please stop doing the thing where we compare Butler to anyone at all without mentioning age? I'm not sure why Butler gets credit for not having been ready to play NBA minutes when he was younger. If anything, Butler is an example of the improvements even wings with developed bodies can make even into their mid-20s.)
 

benhogan

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Hayward isn’t getting traded unless it’s a S&T. He’s got a player option that he could do better financially by declining (perhaps not in AAV but in security). If he picks up his option he’s probably getting some assurances.
I'd say its a 90% chance he declines. With this FA class, Gordon will get close to another max deal. The C's can't pay that, so probably a S&T situation.

Call me cynical but the C's won't get any kind of special deal/favors (see Horford, Al) from Gordon's agent.

I actually agree with this: with Jaylen locked into a good contract and still having upside, he's a return any team can pitch easily to themselves and their fanbase. The problem is finding the right trade--the only guy I immediately see is Beal, which then makes things tough with Hayward and makes Kemba way less valuable, but that's probably not a good enough reason not to do a deal.

Beal/Tatum/Smart/Langford/Grant is an insanely intriguing wing core--the asset preservation part of me just hates what it would entail for Hayward and Kemba.

If Beal doesn't happen, someone else probably will come free in the next year. Jaylen may enter a zone starting next year where you are hoping he gets better, he is a good complementary guy on a good contract, but you're always looking to turn his 70 cents into a dollar if you can.

(Unrelated rant: can we please stop doing the thing where we compare Butler to anyone at all without mentioning age? I'm not sure why Butler gets credit for not having been ready to play NBA minutes when he was younger. If anything, Butler is an example of the improvements even wings with developed bodies can make even into their mid-20s.)
It doesn't even seem that long ago that many liked JB more than JT?

Jaylen is getting bigger and better, he'll continue to improve. He won't be 70cents, he'll be worth 100 cents in a season or two. It was only 57 games ago from that tire fire of last season. Brad has remolded this group, they will harden this year in the playoffs (and lose to the Bucks). BUT come back better next season stronger and ready to win numerous titles.

I'm not advocating this BUT if everyone wants to deal 70 cents and slap on draft picks I'd move our All-Star starter, Kemba Walker, before Jaylen.
 

lovegtm

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...
I'm not advocating this BUT if everyone wants to deal 70 cents and slap on draft picks I'd move our All-Star starter, Kemba Walker, before Jaylen.
Is trading Kemba really controversial? It seems like an obvious thing to do if you get the decent value back. As Tatum improves, you need his shot creation less--you ideally want a bigger shooter who can play more defense while keeping Kemba's gravity off-ball.

The problem is that with Jaylen, you can package him as a rebuild centerpiece. Kemba is too old for that, so it's a LOT harder to find trade partners for stars.

I'm not jumping to trade Jaylen or anything, but I don't think he's untouchable. He occupies a sweet spot of performance and contract value while still having a lot of team control and some projection left.
 

lovegtm

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Getting back to on the floor: I like what the Celtics are doing starting to get Brown involved as a screener when he has a slower 4 on him, like Melo or one of the Lakers bigger guys. He has good gravity as a shooter and is also dangerous if he gets the ball on the roll in space. The dream at some point down the road (for me) would be lineups with and Tatum as the two biggest Celtics out there. If you have shooting around that, you should be able to make anyone remotely slow totally unplayable.
 

lexrageorge

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Is trading Kemba really controversial? It seems like an obvious thing to do if you get the decent value back. As Tatum improves, you need his shot creation less--you ideally want a bigger shooter who can play more defense while keeping Kemba's gravity off-ball.

The problem is that with Jaylen, you can package him as a rebuild centerpiece. Kemba is too old for that, so it's a LOT harder to find trade partners for stars.

I'm not jumping to trade Jaylen or anything, but I don't think he's untouchable. He occupies a sweet spot of performance and contract value while still having a lot of team control and some projection left.
I know you weren't advocating such a trade, but if Danny traded Brown for Bradley Beal, I would wake up tomorrow morning say "why?". Maybe Brown gets traded at some point, as I agree he's a potentially attractive trade chip. However, I'd be curious what people think you could actually get for him that would make sense for the Celtics. As you noted, it's hard to see anyone right now.

As for Kemba, you could really only trade him to a contender where he would be happy. You don't trade high profile free agent signings to teams about to undergo a lengthy rebuild, unless it's in the final year as an expiring. So, yes, it could make sense, but it would be much harder to find a trading partner given those constraints. Unless you trade him for Anthony Davis (sorry, couldn't resist).
 

lovegtm

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I know you weren't advocating such a trade, but if Danny traded Brown for Bradley Beal, I would wake up tomorrow morning say "why?". Maybe Brown gets traded at some point, as I agree he's a potentially attractive trade chip. However, I'd be curious what people think you could actually get for him that would make sense for the Celtics. As you noted, it's hard to see anyone right now.
...
In terms of what you could get for him: he's better than Oladipo was when Oladipo was the center of the PG trade. That's probably the best way to think of him: a good young wing on a decent contract with some uncertainty about the future that makes a trade attractive.

Guys like Jaylen don't come available much in trades: you're either looking at guys who are untradeable because they're too good, or high draft picks, which have a ton more uncertainty.

Now, that said, Oladipo, who exploded at age 25, is yet another example of a young wing improving later, and another reason that the Celtics probably go the development route with Jaylen.
 

JakeRae

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Hayward isn’t getting traded unless it’s a S&T. He’s got a player option that he could do better financially by declining (perhaps not in AAV but in security). If he picks up his option he’s probably getting some assurances.
There are no good teams with cap room who want more than 1 year commitments this offseason. Hayward could opt out for long term security, but it is either on a sign and trade, which might be difficult to convince the Celtics on, or to go to a bad team for money. He’s probably better off if his goals are both to make money and compete opting in and being a consolation prize next year.
 

DJnVa

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This thread has talked about trading Brown, Hayward, and Kemba, all within the last 20 posts.
 

lexrageorge

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I know it's a different thread, but I also don't see Hayward anxious to leave town just to play for the Knicks or Magic, and he is never, ever going to be Kyrie's teammate in Brooklyn; that bridge is beyond burned in both directions. His market isn't hurt that much by playing for another year with the Celtics if it comes to that. But we don't really know how he really feels, so time will tell.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Going to be hard for me to see a case where a Jaylen trade makes much sense. You have your ball-dominant alpha efficiency monster in Tatum, so you surround that guy with players who complement him on defense, can hit open shots, attack closeouts, and manage the offensive load when that guy is out. Jaylen is doing all of that and still getting better. And I think we are well past the point where you talk about trading him for a big because of some imagined need for roster balance or size or something. Someone like Towns? Hell no. The combo of Tatum/Brown are key cogs in the exact kind of team Ainge has been trying to build.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Going to be hard for me to see a case where a Jaylen trade makes much sense. You have your ball-dominant alpha efficiency monster in Tatum, so you surround that guy with players who complement him on defense, can hit open shots, attack closeouts, and manage the offensive load when that guy is out. Jaylen is doing all of that and still getting better. And I think we are well past the point where you talk about trading him for a big because of some imagined need for roster balance or size or something. Someone like Towns? Hell no. The combo of Tatum/Brown are key cogs in the exact kind of team Ainge has been trying to build.
You wouldn't trade Jaylen Brown for KAT? Sorry but that is absurd. I'd drive him.

I'd look into a Bradley Beal deal too.
 

BaseballJones

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Why are people looking to move Jaylen Brown? 23 years old, averaging 20.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, on 49.4% shooting (38.1% from three), an athletic freak with a lot of upside still, very good two-way player on a good contract.

Those are the kinds of players we're looking to trade away?

(I get that you make deals to make you better, but aren't those the kinds of players you're looking to add, not subtract, from your team?)
 

lovegtm

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This thread has talked about trading Brown, Hayward, and Kemba, all within the last 20 posts.
And? Why is it so heretical to ever think about trading your good players who aren’t superstars?

It doesn’t mean it’s the right move, or that the right player will come available, but it absolutely has to be discussed.

The reasons we like all of those guys are the reasons they have value.
 

nighthob

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There are no good teams with cap room who want more than 1 year commitments this offseason. Hayward could opt out for long term security, but it is either on a sign and trade, which might be difficult to convince the Celtics on, or to go to a bad team for money. He’s probably better off if his goals are both to make money and compete opting in and being a consolation prize next year.
If you look at the Celtics’ long term payroll projections you would understand that Boston is going to be highly cooperative if the good team in question has the assets to make it happen.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I have to step away from this thread. Trading Jaylen Brown for Beal or KAT? I wouldn't do those moves straight up, unless they came with a top 3 pick in a loaded draft class, and even then, I'd seriously consider not doing it. Brown is the perfect, absolutely perfect compliment for Tatum. They seem to genuinely like each other, and their games flow off each other beautifully. I think Jaylen's defense gets ignored way too much. The guy is so young, and just getting better and better and he's under contract for 4 years. I can understand moving Gordon, or even Kemba, but IMO, JT and JB need to be the pieces that you build the franchise around for the next decade. I'm so tired about worrying about whether or not guys are going to fit into the team, if their chemistry will be good, etc. We've now seemingly gotten past that and we want trade away one of our core players for a marginal (if even that) upgrade? No, just no.

And in case folks aren't watching, Daniel Theis is turning into a legit NBA player. He's really, really good, and if the refs would give him any sort of respect, he's going to be even better.
 

nighthob

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I'd look into a Bradley Beal deal too.
In September I might have. Not anymore. They have Walker playing that roll now and the defensive downgrade from Brown to Beal (at the wing) is just too great for the marginal offensive upgrade.
 

Jimbodandy

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You wouldn't trade Jaylen Brown for KAT? Sorry but that is absurd. I'd drive him.

I'd look into a Bradley Beal deal too.
KAT plays less NBA defense than you do. We would have to rebuild a defense around his shortcomings. Guy is a stud on offense and young, but he's awful on half of the court.
 

lovegtm

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KAT discussion and evaluation is pretty pointless atm—not just because Minny won’t deal him, but because by the time they’d consider it we’d know a lot more about both Brown and KAT as players.

That’s also the reason they’ll never get traded for each other: by the time KAT ever tried to force a trade (with 1.5 years left on his deal would be the earliest), JB would have UFA coming up and no longer be appealing because of the flight risk.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I still think his most likely ceiling is realized somewhere else as he is traded with picks for the next superstar to pair with Tatum
Which superstars, other than Giannis, would you really trade JB for and who have a chance of being available? One thing about JB - his ability to guard 4s (and sometimes 5s) really makes this team work.

We've discussed KAT.

I'm a hard pass for either Embiid or Simmons, but that's just me. Lillard wouldn't work the way BOS's roster is currently constructed.

Anyone I'm missing?