Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million

bowiac

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Its worth noting that, while I believe Jaylen Brown's leap is real and sustainable, we are still operating with a relatively small sample size.
At the risk of self-promotion, balancing sample size and recency is exactly what my projection system (DARKO) is designed to do. You can see Jaylen's current talent estimates in any stat, and his overall progression as both a three point shooter and free throw shooter. These estimates account for the amount of noise in any given metric, so are more skeptical of shooting talent changes, and more credulous of other stuff (e.g., shot selection).

There's also a chart of his progression in a box-score only metric (similar to BPM). Ingram and Simmons for comparison:

27783

Truly a remarkable improvement.
 

luckiestman

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At the risk of self-promotion, balancing sample size and recency is exactly what my projection system (DARKO) is designed to do. You can see Jaylen's current talent estimates in any stat, and his overall progression as both a three point shooter and free throw shooter. These estimates account for the amount of noise in any given metric, so are more skeptical of shooting talent changes, and more credulous of other stuff (e.g., shot selection).

There's also a chart of his progression in a box-score only metric (similar to BPM). Ingram and Simmons for comparison:

View attachment 27783

Truly a remarkable improvement.
Where is Mr Chemistry’s entrance and exit in that chart?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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At the risk of self-promotion, balancing sample size and recency is exactly what my projection system (DARKO) is designed to do. You can see Jaylen's current talent estimates in any stat, and his overall progression as both a three point shooter and free throw shooter. These estimates account for the amount of noise in any given metric, so are more skeptical of shooting talent changes, and more credulous of other stuff (e.g., shot selection).

There's also a chart of his progression in a box-score only metric (similar to BPM). Ingram and Simmons for comparison:

View attachment 27783

Truly a remarkable improvement.
Thank you for posting (I still have to read the write-up you shared). It definitely appears to be real. That said, I was simply noting that players can have hot streaks or make a leap and then the league adjusts to that.

What is fascinating in your graph is that the inflection point for the leap for both Ingram and Brown appears to be around the 125-175 games area (where they have played greater than 20 MPG). So that is a range of about a season and a half to two seasons assuming they get that sort of run in each game. However for each this is happening in their fourth year in the league though they took considerably different paths to get to this "leap".

If the formula is about three or four seasons of getting decent run before a player starts to approach their true talent level - and I am not saying your data says exactly this - it makes for some interesting discussions about rookie contracts and extensions.
 

bowiac

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If the formula is about three or four seasons of getting decent run before a player starts to approach their true talent level - and I am not saying your data says exactly this - it makes for some interesting discussions about rookie contracts and extensions.
Agree that would help frame things, although I think it's probably not quite that simple. As you can see, Simmons seems to have come into the league and rapidly stalled. Here's a few other guys with interesting trends:

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Harris has been basically a flat development - improving every year. Oladipo had a big spike at around game 250. And Murray appears to have stalled or even taken a step back at around the same point when Ingram and Jaylen are spiking.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Agree that would help frame things, although I think it's probably not quite that simple. As you can see, Simmons seems to have come into the league and rapidly stalled. Here's a few other guys with interesting trends:

View attachment 27785

Harris has been basically a flat development - improving every year. Oladipo had a big spike at around game 250. And Murray appears to have stalled or even taken a step back at around the same point when Ingram and Jaylen are spiking.
This is fascinating and tracks with the "eye test" in terms of the teams that drafted these players as well as how they were used with the exception of Murray.

Oladipo's spike coincides with his time in OKC and his subsequent arrival as one of Indiana's main players. Murray is interesting too because of his stall/regression. I do wonder how much that may have to do with those around you.

Brown and Tatum haven't really been consistently asked to carry the scoring load up until now and its only really because (a) Walker appears to be fine deferring to his teammates if they are going and (b) it seems like both Tatum and Brown are ok sharing touches. Meanwhile, the Nuggets run their offense through their center and I wonder if that impacts Murray's ability to continue improving. Or, maybe its as simple as teams adjusting to his tendencies/Denver's schemes and he hasn't been able to adjust back.

Thanks again for posting.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm guessing if Simmons actually played his rookie year, his graph would look a little different. He'd still have stalled either way though so it doesn't matter much.
 

BaseballJones

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Jayson Tatum is 21 years of age. Jaylen Brown is 23 years of age.

Tatum: 18.3 fga, 21.2 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.3 stl, 42.0% fg, 35.9% 3ptfg, 84.2% ft
Brown: 14.7 fga, 20.6 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.1 stl, 51.8% fg, 40.0% 3ptfg, 75.2% ft

Brown right now has to be one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. 20.6 points on just 14.7 field goal attempts, with an effective FG% of 59.0%.
 

lovegtm

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Jayson Tatum is 21 years of age. Jaylen Brown is 23 years of age.

Tatum: 18.3 fga, 21.2 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.3 stl, 42.0% fg, 35.9% 3ptfg, 84.2% ft
Brown: 14.7 fga, 20.6 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.1 stl, 51.8% fg, 40.0% 3ptfg, 75.2% ft

Brown right now has to be one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. 20.6 points on just 14.7 field goal attempts, with an effective FG% of 59.0%.
I love Brown, but Tatum’s ability to carry a bigger offensive load and potentially develop into doing it efficiently is a feature imo, not a bug.

Brown still too often does the “TS% lifehack”, where he tries to get as far as he can to the basket and shoots or makes the simple pass if there's a huge advantage, but just passes out to reset the possession otherwise. This gives him sick efficiency numbers, but puts whoever needs to finish the possession at a disadvantage.

It’s not the end of the world, and it’s farrrr better than forcing things or turning it over, but it’s just one of the ways that “efficiency” can be very misleading.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 13 games: 34.0 minutes, .563/.442/.766 (5.9 3PA), 23.0 points. 6.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.8 TO.

35 assists/36 TO. What a bum!

Assist % is at a career high 11.3%, TO % is at 11.6%. Going into the year, his career assist rate was 7.9% and his TO % was 11.4%.

The bum part is sarcasm the Assist:TO stuff is all trending in the right direction. Among 20 point scorers in the league, the only players with a worse A/TO ratio than Brown are Bojan Bogdanovic and Joel Embiid.

I'm not sure it means much of anything, just find it interesting. Brown's a unique player.
 

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He has been kind of loose with the ball the last few games. Smart and Wanamaker have been as well, but this is his thread.

I love that he's looking for guys, but he should tighten it up a bit.
 

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He has been kind of loose with the ball the last few games. Smart and Wanamaker have been as well, but this is his thread.

I love that he's looking for guys, but he should tighten it up a bit.
Tatum as well. Not sure why the C's have suddenly become so careless with the ball, especially in late-game situations. With the C's clinging to a hard-earned lead, Jaylen tried a ridiculously difficult pass late against ATL that predictably produced a turnover.
 

benhogan

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Chicago leads the NBA in creating turnovers. Any kind of carelessness was going to get shown/exploited.

Playing them without your main ballhandler, on the road, after a back-to-back was going to lead to plenty of TOs and it did.
 

lovegtm

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Chicago leads the NBA in creating turnovers. Any kind of carelessness was going to get shown/exploited.

Playing them without your main ballhandler, on the road, after a back-to-back was going to lead to plenty of TOs and it did.
I can’t wait for the sky-is-falling takes when Philly (with 2 days rest) beats us on the end of a road b2b.
 

benhogan

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I can’t wait for the sky-is-falling takes when Philly (with 2 days rest) beats us on the end of a road b2b.
getting Phila and Mil on-road back-to-backs is a shame. It won't mimic a playoff experience but will be used extensively as proof that the Celtics can't compete with them when it counts. :rolleyes:
 

Jimbodandy

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Chicago leads the NBA in creating turnovers. Any kind of carelessness was going to get shown/exploited.

Playing them without your main ballhandler, on the road was going to lead to plenty of TOs and it did.
That's certainly part of it.

I think that the growing pains that we're seeing in Tatum (inefficiency) is similar to Brown's turnoveritis lately. Brad wants Tatum pursuing the Alpha Dog path, and he wants Brown learning how to find others better. With the latter comes some great passes, and experience of course, but he's also throwing the ball away.
 

lovegtm

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getting Phila and Mil on-road back-to-backs is a shame. It won't mimic a playoff experience but will be used extensively as proof that the Celtics can't compete with them when it counts. :rolleyes:
It’s just a shame as a fan. There are 5-10 games for each team every year that both sides treat as a playoff game, and they’re fun as hell (think Cs-Clippers). Getting robbed of those by moronic schedulers sucks.
 

amarshal2

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That's certainly part of it.

I think that the growing pains that we're seeing in Tatum (inefficiency) is similar to Brown's turnoveritis lately. Brad wants Tatum pursuing the Alpha Dog path, and he wants Brown learning how to find others better. With the latter comes some great passes, and experience of course, but he's also throwing the ball away.
Browns turnovers to my eye are typically loose dribble not bad passes
 

Jimbodandy

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Browns turnovers to my eye are typically loose dribble not bad passes
Typically, yes. And he has done a half decent job of limiting that this year with the handle improvements. In the last few games, he has been forcing stupid passes. It's the difference between 2 understandable TOs and 4-6.
 

Cesar Crespo

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My post was meant to highlight the improvement he's made this year while still pointing out he has some work to do.

I think everyone has to be absolutely delighted by Jaylen Brown this year.
 

lovegtm

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My post was meant to highlight the improvement he's made this year while still pointing out he has some work to do.

I think everyone has to be absolutely delighted by Jaylen Brown this year.
“Explosive Kawhi” is starting to look like a reasonable comparison on the offensive end, and he has the same weaknesses as 23 year-old Kawhi too: he needs to become a better primary ball-handler and learn to make reads beyond basic passes.

Should be fun to watch one way or another.
 

amarshal2

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I think Kawhi is a very unique player and the comparisons to him are destined to leave people dissatisfied with Brown. Kawhi’s combo of strength and body control is almost unparalleled in professional sports. Combined with his intelligence and defensive positioning and I just don’t think Brown can get there, never mind be an explosive version of him. It’s a fine line between ~10th best player in the NBA and far and away the best player on multiple championship teams/arguably the best in the league. Some sort of 10th best/Butler/Paul George combo is the best case scenario.

Edit you’re right you said offensive. My bad
 
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lovegtm

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I think Kawhi is a very unique player and the comparisons to him are destined to leave people dissatisfied with Brown. Kawhi’s combo of strength and body control is almost unparalleled in professional sports. Combined with his intelligence and defensive positioning and I just don’t think Brown can get there, never mind be an explosive version of him. It’s a fine line between ~10th best player in the NBA and far and away the best player on multiple championship teams/arguably the best. Some sort of 10th best/Butler/Paul George combo is the best case scenario.
I explicitly referred to the offensive end, where he’s already ahead of Kawhi at the same age, with similar strengths and weaknesses, just better at almost everything.

Defensively, yes, Kawhi is a once-in-a-lifetime player, and I don’t see how Brown gets there, which is fine.
 

TripleOT

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We don't really know Brown's ceiling. He's got every element a top of the league star needs; Athleticism, size, competitiveness, work ethic, skill, smarts, and the demonstrative ability to improve. Even if he doesn't end up a top 10 player, I'm looking forward to his continued improvement in different parts of his game.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Brown's been a turnover machine lately. In his first 18 games, he turned the ball over 3 or more times in a game only twice. More recently, he has turned the ball over 3 or more times in 10 of his last 11 games.
 

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Brown's been a turnover machine lately. In his first 18 games, he turned the ball over 3 or more times in a game only twice. More recently, he has turned the ball over 3 or more times in 10 of his last 11 games.
Isn't that a function of trying to do more? Kemba is out, or the team is playing flat - he's trying to drive/will/lead the team forward. I'm not saying he hasn't made mistakes or tried to do too much, but sometimes over a long season you need a player to increase his aggression - knowing that turnovers or 1 for 8 shooting nights will happen. I think we'd have lost one of the last two games without his aggression (perhaps assertiveness is better), and a few more turnovers in the process is a small price to pay in the moment.

We all know that a certain amount of patience is required with any young player with potential. As they develop new skills, aim higher, test the skills in games, there is bound to be an ebb and flow within the success of the skills or the players game. I personally love to see "I didn't know he had that in his game" moments from young players and you don't get those without the occasional mistake or 3. Obviously if this sloppiness or error rate remains a pattern Stevens will address it.

Note: not targeting you with my post, just clicked your post because it had turnover numbers in it.
 

bowiac

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"Ahead of where Kawhi was at this age" may be accurate, but is a bit pointless. Kawhi's breakout on the offensive end is historic (paralleled in the modern era by only Jimmy Butler). It's a bit like comparing a hitter's status to where Jose Bautista was at the same age.
 

amarshal2

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Brown's been a turnover machine lately. In his first 18 games, he turned the ball over 3 or more times in a game only twice. More recently, he has turned the ball over 3 or more times in 10 of his last 11 games.
Nice catch.

In Brown's first 15 games (Oct + Nov) he was averaging 14.5 FGA, 2.1 assists, and 22.8 USG.
Since then over 14 games (Dec + Jan) he's averaging 14.6 FGA, 2.7 assists, and 25.1 USG.

So, it's not him trying to shoot more, but it is him taking on more workload as a ball handler and passing more that's causing the turnovers. His TS% has skyrocketed over 100 pts, so it's plausible he's doing more to get higher quality looks, but more likely small sample noise as he's not going to be a .680 TS% guy going forward shooting 46% from 3.
 

lovegtm

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That was one of the better defensive games I've seen Brown play in awhile. He moved his feet really, really well in individual defense, kept his hands back, and was just super-engaged in general.
 

NomarsFool

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Yes, he really seemed to turn it up a notch from the get-go. Offensive numbers didn't end up being great, but it was certainly nice to see the defensive intensity.
 

lovegtm

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Man, that was a high-energy defensive game for Jaylen. The All-Star snub in favor of his more defensively-focused teammate might end up being the best thing that ever happened to him.
 

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Man, that was a high-energy defensive game for Jaylen. The All-Star snub in favor of his more defensively-focused teammate might end up being the best thing that ever happened to him.
IMO Jaylen's defensive effort is the biggest Celtic difference-maker. When he turns it up defensively they are a top 4 NBA team
 

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I'm a huge JB fan, but it sort of looked to me like he was taking some plays off on defense. There was that one play where CBS was really screaming - couldn't quite tell if his frustration was directed at JB or not, but it could have been as it was his guy that had the easy bucket. I feel like when JB is on, he's a great defender. But, it doesn't always seem to me like he is on at the defensive end.
 

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I'm a huge JB fan, but it sort of looked to me like he was taking some plays off on defense. There was that one play where CBS was really screaming - couldn't quite tell if his frustration was directed at JB or not, but it could have been as it was his guy that had the easy bucket. I feel like when JB is on, he's a great defender. But, it doesn't always seem to me like he is on at the defensive end.
I think that he still lacks instinct defensively and sometimes makes the wrong reads. He also seems to lose focus sometimes. He has improved greatly in both areas but still has a ways to go there. It never seems like an effort problem to me.
 

lovegtm

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I think that he still lacks instinct defensively and sometimes makes the wrong reads. He also seems to lose focus sometimes. He has improved greatly in both areas but still has a ways to go there. It never seems like an effort problem to me.
I think it’s an effort issue inasmuch as focus requires mental effort. I can understand not wanting to turn that on for 82 games.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think it’s an effort issue inasmuch as focus requires mental effort. I can understand not wanting to turn that on for 82 games.
It's an difference of interpretation, I guess. I'm not sure how much is wanting to turn it in for 82 games vs. being capable of keeping it on for 82 games, especially as a 23yo.

I used to work for a guy who would bark at people, including me, to keep our foot on the gas pedal. Office job. But the environment wasn't in place for that level of production for 52 weeks. He knew that, of course, but the whip cracking was his thing.

I think that Jaylen's focus and awareness of the defensive system has improved every year, so I see that as an ability thing fwiw.
 

InstaFace

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Right, and we won that game against Atlanta pretty easily, and could have won by more if we had needed to. More important is his effort play-to-play in closer games against better opponents, where we need to have his focus and effort. How does he do then?

There are things worth working on in every game, of course. But not every game is a real dress rehearsal that should be treated like a playoff game and judged on those standards. The MFLakers, at home, on national TV, with Lebron and AD and National TV Rondo? Sure. Coach Pete took that 100% seriously and so did every player and we blew them off the floor. The Philly game was equally encouraging, in that we were facing a healthy team with something to prove, who have the matchups to beat us, without our talismanic all-star PG, and still ran them off the court. Let's break down that film, tell me how his rotations were, his decision-making. Show me stuff I wouldn't see as an interested but less-tactically-knowledgeable fan. If Brown left some points out there on those games, I care.

Do I care as much about whether we're all at 100% against the fuckin' Hawks? Absolutely not. Load Management applies to mental load too.
 

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Right, and we won that game against Atlanta pretty easily, and could have won by more if we had needed to. More important is his effort play-to-play in closer games against better opponents, where we need to have his focus and effort. How does he do then?

There are things worth working on in every game, of course. But not every game is a real dress rehearsal that should be treated like a playoff game and judged on those standards. The MFLakers, at home, on national TV, with Lebron and AD and National TV Rondo? Sure. Coach Pete took that 100% seriously and so did every player and we blew them off the floor. The Philly game was equally encouraging, in that we were facing a healthy team with something to prove, who have the matchups to beat us, without our talismanic all-star PG, and still ran them off the court. Let's break down that film, tell me how his rotations were, his decision-making. Show me stuff I wouldn't see as an interested but less-tactically-knowledgeable fan. If Brown left some points out there on those games, I care.

Do I care as much about whether we're all at 100% against the fuckin' Hawks? Absolutely not. Load Management applies to mental load too.
There have been lots of studies about elite athletes around periodic training. The acknowledgement being of course that no one can be training or performing at peak form/output indefinitely. So they figure out where the critical events/performance requirements are, work backwards and train to peak at those times. I have no idea where the Celtics are with regard to those kinds of approaches, but 82 games is certainly a grind - physically AND mentally. I think that is one of the largest benefits of the larger rotation that Stevens employs - it allows for mini load management within games, and as we've seen lately allows the team to be ultra conservative with the nagging injuries that would almost certainly not keep a player off the court in the playoffs.

I've also seen games where I felt like Jaylen was the ONLY one that brought focus/intensity on that night, and seemed to be willing the team forward with his defensive intensity - until the rest of the team got on board. So the ebb and flow of performance and/or focus is going to be there - and we try to not over analyze small fluctuations in those patterns.

I'm not attributing all defensive lapses to a lack of mental focus, or denying that he's had games where he wasn't as 'sharp' for whatever reason. It could be a feel for the game as mentioned above, or any number of things I'm not interested in speculating about. With the travel schedule (and assorted professional athlete entertainment options) playing games with sleep patterns, the simplest answer might well be he needs more sleep. Regardless, I'm not comfortable simply equating a lack of mental focus with a lack of effort.

Having said that, I don't see any focus issues when the team is faced with better teams, or a more pressure laden environment (such as the playoffs). So if the team gets to where they need to be with regard to playoffs, seeding, etc., I'm not worried about his focus once the bright lights are turned on.