Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
- Status
Pretty sure he said "Among the best" but your point still stands.
Can you imagine what would have happened if someone had dropped into the JB draft thread and said, "I have it on good authority that JB will be one of the best mid-range shooters by the time he's 24"? Poster probably would have been banned for trolling.
I don’t think anyone called it exactly, but there were some very prescient takes in that thread about his shooting looking like a potential weapon. HRB should definitely be saying “I told you so” for his defense of the pick in general and of Brown’s shooting potential specifically:
You weren’t far off, either, though more about his long range shot than his midrange game:
Among the best sounds right. I probably turned it into what I wanted to hear.
Yeah he can’t keep up his torrid midrange accuracy for the entire season but if he did he would be the best value in the league and the next best wouldn’t be close.
His handle looks way tighter to me this year - even compared to what it was just a few months ago in the bubble - and it seems like that results in so much of the success in other areas he's been having. He gets to his spots in control, ready to shoot a jumper he's comfortable with. He's in control making a series of moves which draw extra defenders, ready to make a pass to someone else who's open.
I'm terrible at basketball so this may be wrong but I think that's what I'm seeing.
I'm terrible at basketball so this may be wrong but I think that's what I'm seeing.
Completely agree, but I do think the reason the handle looks tighter has a lot to do with the fact that his decisions are a lot more on point this year. Its easier to shield and control the dribble when you know exactly where you are going and what the defense is doing. The game has slowed down an extra notch for him this season.
The record hasn't been great, but with Tatum out Jaylen is averaging 29.4 points on 52% shooting with 5 rebounds and 4.2 assists (in only about 29 mpg). I'm not really sure exactly what this guy's ceiling is, but it appears to be well above occasional all star.
The improvements to his handle have been nothing short of amazing. To think where he was when he came into the league and where he is now as a ball handler and shooter; just incredible commitment to improving his game and great talent development overall by the Celtics organization. Offensively he really reminds me of Kawhi; he just has the athleticism and skill to get anywhere he wants on the court and he can rise up and hit any shot inside 15 feet. He also is now coming off of screens and cashing threes like he is Klay Thompson.
I always thought that Tatum had the higher ceiling simply because he was so advanced on offense and could score with ease; but Jaylen has started to close that gap and it isn't because Tatum has stopped improving (he's made huge strides himself) but Brown is pretty close to Tatum right now when it comes to creating his own shot. It fucking rules.
I always thought that Tatum had the higher ceiling simply because he was so advanced on offense and could score with ease; but Jaylen has started to close that gap and it isn't because Tatum has stopped improving (he's made huge strides himself) but Brown is pretty close to Tatum right now when it comes to creating his own shot. It fucking rules.
So against the Cavs he apparently scored the most points (33) in less than 20 minutes (he played 19) in NBA History.
Last edited:
Him or Jokic.
His rate of offensive improvement is very similar to that of Butler and Kawhi around the same age. The pessimistic scenarios for his development are probably less realistic now than the optimistic ones. There just aren't many wings who improve offensively at this rate at this age, and the ones who do end up being f---ing studs.
The worry around Jaylen is going to shift soon from “will he hit his upside” to “where will he sign in 2024?” I think there’s a good chance by that time he’s viewed as a franchise-altering piece, in his prime.
Last edited:
Which is more impressive - his improvement as a ball handler or his improvement as a shooter?
Ball handler. He was already a good shooter by his 2nd year, and it seems more and more likely as time goes by that his FT issues were yips rather than a flaw in his stroke.
His ball-handling is unlocking everything now, from pullup 3s, to improved vision, to getting separation from his midrange spot, where he seems likely to be elite.
Pretty interesting to re-read the Lowe article about the Jaylen vs. Kawhi decision:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23847072/zach-lowe-kawhi-leonard-jaylen-brown-celtics-spurs-trades
Lowe lays out the bull case for Brown, and it ends up looking too conservative just 2 years later on pretty much all fronts.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23847072/zach-lowe-kawhi-leonard-jaylen-brown-celtics-spurs-trades
Lowe lays out the bull case for Brown, and it ends up looking too conservative just 2 years later on pretty much all fronts.
Good article. Lowe makes some pretty prescient calls on Brown.
sometimes smart, tenacious and skilled players defy reasonable. Leonard did. Brown might. His jump from Year 1 to Year 2 was jarring. The Celtics aren't ready to put a ceiling on him, and they shouldn't be. He may never crack the top five in MVP voting, but it is not a stretch to imagine Brown making an All-NBA team and busting into some of those lofty "two-way player" conversations.
Most executives around the league consider it a no-brainer for Boston to toss Brown into any Leonard trade, provided the Celtics get the requisite assurances about Leonard's health and willingness to re-sign. It's not -- not given Brown's youth, salary and potential to grow into something like 90 percent of prime Leonard.
Both bolded parts were pretty BOLD statements...
Brown will probably be the superior offensive player. BUT won't be as good on defense as Kawhi or Butler.
Jaylen could be a top 10 player by next season, surpassing the most optimistic assumptions of a few months ago. Multiple Championship runs built around JayCrew on the way.
Last edited:
I dunno about this. We'll see where he lands on his shooting this year but he's at .628 TS. And he's over 30 points per 36. He's KD/Curry level efficiency on KD/Curry level of output right now. If he doesn't slow down he's first team all-pro with very serious MVP consideration. So, uh, yeah...
Brown with 35% more points and 60% more assists over last season, in slightly less minutes, with a 60% eFG. Serious season over season improvement, which should surely lock up an all star nod (in a no all star game season). Could be in all-NBA consideration if he stays at this level of play.
To early really, but he is an all-star starter as of today, yea?
Embiid
Giannis
Durant
Brown
Holiday (maybe Trae?)
Embiid
Giannis
Durant
Brown
Holiday (maybe Trae?)
His balance getting into the shot is so much better, not just compared to himself (historically) but the league. He is almost always straight up and down on his jumpers... Whether that is pullups off the drive or coming off picks. Maybe it is the confidence in the handle, knowing it is there for him without worry, that is unlocking his athleticism in a way that has produced his current shooting.
He is also craftier in creating angles than he used to be. He still very much north/south dribbler but he is able to get angles that produce good opportunities even when he isn't getting separation on the drive.
That is one hell of a defensive team, if there were an all star game and if all star games had defense.
Would need to be to compete with this nice looking western team
Jokic
AD
Kawhi
Lebron
Dame
Middleton and LaVine have been amazing, too, but, yeah, I’d go with Jaylen. Maybe LaVine or Brogdon at PG over Holiday or Trae?
But wait ... are they going back to East v. West for the all-star game?
I thought they cancelled/indefinitely postponed the actual game this year, with the selections just being honors for who would have made it. And even in the Team LeBron vs. Team Giannis setup, the pool of players to be drafted (both as starters and reserves) was generated based on top vote getters in each Conference.
It's actually a little hard to overstate how much Brown has improved in the paint. He has absolutely elite control over himself getting to the basket. Every finish last night against Cleveland was so soft and poised -- and it's not just Cleveland, he's been this way all season but particularly now that he's the prime scoring option. It's almost as if sitting Tatum has been kind of necessary to bring this side out of him.
In a tie/down 1pt late-game situation. Jaylen needs to be option 1A. The Tatum pound the ball at the top ISO really needs to lessen. Brad should draw up a play to get both in action and go with whoever has the worse defender guarding them.
Dare I ask the question: Is Brown now better than Kawhi?
2020-21 stats (obviously not a huge sample):
Brown: 32.7 min, 53.2% FG, 43.0% 3pt, 60.0% eFG, 27.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks
Kawhi: 34.5 min, 50.5% FG, 41.9% 3pt, 56.0% eFG, 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.7 blocks
If he's not, he's not too far off, is he?
2020-21 stats (obviously not a huge sample):
Brown: 32.7 min, 53.2% FG, 43.0% 3pt, 60.0% eFG, 27.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks
Kawhi: 34.5 min, 50.5% FG, 41.9% 3pt, 56.0% eFG, 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.7 blocks
If he's not, he's not too far off, is he?
Raw stats are a bit misleading with that, the Clippers fall off a cliff when Kawhi isn’t playing. Clippers have a +14 net rating when he’s on the court, and a -3 with him off.
Celtics have a +0.9 net rating with Jaylen on the floor, and a +3.9 when he’s off.
Obviously there is noise in the numbers, and there are other circumstances that play into it. But the next jump for Jaylen needs to be with regards to having a bigger impact on the game, IMO. I have zero doubt he will get there, and sooner rather than later.
That’s exactly who he’s been reminding me of, but obviously with better defense.
Also worth throwing into those numbers above... Jaylen 2.7 TO, Kawhi 1.8. And I point this out not so much to say Kawhi is better, but to point out how well Jaylen has taken care of the ball. Of the 18 guys with a 29% usage rate or higher this season, only Jaylen and Kawhi are under 3.1 TO per game. Pretty impressive improvement in his handle this year.
I think in addition to continuing to improve his playmaking (which is certainly coming along nicely), the next steps for Jaylen are improving his off ball skills and learning how to play as the #2 option who can be a threat without the ball in his hands at the start of the action. That would encompass both moving like Reggie Miller to get open when he doesn’t have the ball (too often when he doesn’t have the ball he’s just chilling along the three point arc), and developing a two man game with Tatum/Kemba where he can set a screen, either roll or pop out and just punish the defense for focusing too much on the ball handler. Unlocking those skills will let them really take advantage of having multiple prime scoring options on the court at once, while sometimes right now it’s “your turn, my turn” and whoever doesn’t have the ball isn’t being utilized to their fullest (most or all of this is applicable to Tatum, too). It will be particularly useful in late game situations, as the defense doubles whoever the ball goes to initially.
Yep JB needs to get his +/- and On/Off up (over several seasons) to start justifying all this overexuberance.
Part of the problem is Jaylen's defense is way overrated by the media.
I think his on ball defense is good, I love his post defense, but he is a pretty pisspoor team defender, and that’s the most important I think.
I love, love, love Jaylen, but his second season has been his only positive on/off this far. He’s starting to really understand the game better, so hopefully team defense is his next sonic jump.
Even over a full season raw on/off is not telling you much. There is too much noise around who guys tend to play with and who the backups are.
Definitely agreed that we need to take advantage of what we have here and stop running the 30 foot JT isos as the only ATO in that situation.
And Jaylen is quietly 78% from the line this year on decent volume so it absolutely should be considered. Would be huge if he can sustain 75%+.
but it's helpful when you compare JB with an elite defender like Tatum, since they play in the same system, teammates, coach, opponent and position.
Yes, but you have to regress for the rotations that they're in. Looking back over Brown's career, he was coming off the bench in some years and sharing big minutes with the Roziers and MaMos of the world. On-off and advanced def stats have improved a lot and tell us some things, but we seem to forget that they're a couple of decades behind their SABR counterparts sometimes.
This isn't to say that JBs team defense doesn't need work. Most of what was said here around his off-ball offense and team defense as the next leap area for him is rock solid.
JB's improved handle is getting all of the hype (as it should) but he has also put a ton of work into improving his left hand around the rim. He now looks really natural with his left and it's getting him some much easier shots around the rim when the defender focuses on taking away the right.
Last edited:
The caveat is actually even stronger in this case since the difference is only coming when they are not both on the floor which in their case will be a pretty small and non random sample.
But I agree with the larger point being made which is that JB is a world behind Tatum defensively.
I think he's 1A to Tatums 1B when there's >24 seconds left in the game and you're not playing for last shot. He's measurably more efficient at scoring and his FT shooting has improved enough that I think he can start being relied upon in close and late. He's pretty good at getting himself into position to take a shot he makes at a high level, but he still doesn't have the handle and moves to be super consistent about it. Instead, he's learned when going to get stuck to recognize it and dish the ball out to someone else without making a bad pass. He rarely forces it. This could be difficult in last shot situations. Tatum on the other hand is the best at not getting stuck because he can always pivot into a high difficulty shot that he can actually make. Tatum should still be 1A for last shot. However, I don't think Tatum is particularly good at last shot situations just yet and needs more work, particularly as it relates to drawing fouls without just throwing his hands up in the air and expecting star treatment (true in a number of circumstances).
The most important thing really is that they further develop chemistry together and with their teammates to be less 1:1 and more of a team game. They're both growing so much I think it's just around the corner. Clearly Marcus has focused on it with JB, which is great to see.
Last edited:
I've always loved JB's game. He just seems to be so efficient and you just feel like every time he takes a shot it goes in. I like Tatum as well, but for me, I feel like Tatum takes a lot of shots where I cringe - and yet it goes in a lot.
So, personally, I'd like to see the Celtics alter their approach to the end of games/quarters with regards to that last shot. I'm really pretty sick of watching Tatum dribble the ball and then shoot a 3PA as time expires. Yes, on opening night that went in and it was very exciting. But, I think it was a pretty low percentage shot. I think they need to run some kind of play for either Tatum or Brown and see who has a decent look.
So, personally, I'd like to see the Celtics alter their approach to the end of games/quarters with regards to that last shot. I'm really pretty sick of watching Tatum dribble the ball and then shoot a 3PA as time expires. Yes, on opening night that went in and it was very exciting. But, I think it was a pretty low percentage shot. I think they need to run some kind of play for either Tatum or Brown and see who has a decent look.
One of my favorite things about Jaylen is that he is almost never called for a charge. Taking charges is one of the ways an athletically gifted but less skilled player can be defended, and even last year Brown had moved way past that. He nearly always does the right thing when driving to the basket, whether that be to go up strong for the dunk, stop short and wait for his man to sail past him before laying it in, or whetever the situation calls for.
Jaylen imma let you finish but Mike Conley up there... What the hell?
Edit: Also McCollum! I suspect RPM is noisy right now.
- Status