Jaylen Brown: More than enough in Year 8.

lovegtm

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Would it be crazy to target a big to let KP be a roamer/safety on defense? Would help with playoff matchups against dominant bigs, which feels increasingly important in a way it wasn’t a few years ago. Any deep playoff run will go through some combo of Embiid, Giannis, and Bam. KP feels like a liability in all of those matchups.

You’d need someone who is still a threat from deep to keep spacing. Not sure I see anyone in the list above who makes sense.
They already did this against Embiid, so probably they'll do it against Giannis.

I think they feel good about KP on Bam. Bam was meh in his game against the Cs: lots of points, but TS% under 50% and not drawing extra help. Cs were fine with Bam iso offense.
 

benhogan

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I’d cross out Grant. Everything he’s done in his career has shown that he’s far more interested in his own stats than sacrificing to be on a winning team.

Cross out Dejounte too. He seems like a massive clown and I don’t think his personality would be a fit or matches the types of players that Brad has been acquiring.

Markkanen seems to want/need the ball a bit too much for his role here

I think Bam is incredibly unlikely (like 1%). JJJ is a really, really good fit but I don’t think Memphis trades him. They have more guard/wing types than bigs.

Mobley is REALLY interesting. Looking at it at the surface it seems unlikely but when you dig a bit deeper some things do start to add up….
You get rid of the clunky double big fit with Jarrett Allen. You know Cleveland wants to keep Mitchell and Brown/Mitchell are really close…
I think that’s a really good idea.

Bridges, Franz, Toronto duo, Mobley and good Williams from OKC seem like the most logical trades (in terms of what Boston needs and the opposing team wanting to acquire Jaylen)
Agree with most of your commentary.

I imagine with new CBA rules kicking in next Summer there will be multiple teams involved with having to chop up Jaylen's ~$50MM

The Tatum/Brown spread continues to widen, so going ALL IN on building around JT will be the way forward.
 

lovegtm

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Agree with most of your commentary.

I imagine with new CBA rules kicking in next Summer there will be multiple teams involved with having to chop up Jaylen's ~$50MM

The Tatum/Brown spread continues to widen, so going ALL IN on building around JT will be the way forward.
I'm feeling more and more that they aren't going to rush things with JB.

He'll be permanently available, starting July 26 2024, but they really need to wait until the right set of role players or picks shakes free. It always happens, but it's hard to know when, and it's worth staying deep in the tax until you really find the guy(s).
 

Imbricus

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He'll be permanently available, starting July 26 2024, but they really need to wait until the right set of role players or picks shakes free.
I think the tricky thing will be making him available but not having rumors flying all over the media that Brown is then reacting to. He hasn't been thrilled in the past about being part of trade talks. I know, it's part of the business, but relationships can sour and then you can have a highly paid player demanding a trade, pushing his value down.
 

lovegtm

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I think the tricky thing will be making him available but not having rumors flying all over the media that Brown is then reacting to. He hasn't been thrilled in the past about being part of trade talks. I know, it's part of the business, but relationships can sour and then you can have a highly paid player demanding a trade, pushing his value down.
It's a risk for sure. However, if he does demand a trade, the recent returns for disgruntled players have been quite good.

However, let me clarify: by "permanently available", I mean that the Celtics have internally decided they will move him if the right situation comes up, but not publicize that.

This is what they did with Smart and TL: clearly Brad had decided they could both go if a guy or picks came free, but no one heard anything until the deals were done.
 

Eddie Jurak

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For this year, I think they need to do a couple of things to maximize Brown (and minimize potential negatives).

First, they have to run because he is at his offensive best in transition. Second, they have to scheme touches and involvement for him.
 

lovegtm

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For this year, I think they need to do a couple of things to maximize Brown (and minimize potential negatives).

First, they have to run because he is at his offensive best in transition. Second, they have to scheme touches and involvement for him.
I think they're pretty aware of this, and are particularly trying to make JB+KP be a thing, so that they can get a lot of minutes playing specifically together and generate complementary points/assists/touches.
 

benhogan

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It's a risk for sure. However, if he does demand a trade, the recent returns for disgruntled players have been quite good.

However, let me clarify: by "permanently available", I mean that the Celtics have internally decided they will move him if the right situation comes up, but not publicize that.

This is what they did with Smart and TL: clearly Brad had decided they could both go if a guy or picks came free, but no one heard anything until the deals were done.
Agreed. Brad/Zarren (BZ) will be opportunistic.

Once Jaylen's 1-year kicks in BZ will be taking calls from ~20 teams that want a 27-yr old Alpha WING on a multi-year contract. Those other teams know the C's will be in JB for multiple players/assets mode (due to the CBA) which usually equates to a WIN for the GM that would acquire Jaylen Brown. BZ will publicly say that JB isn't on the trade block, until they get exactly what they need to surround Tatum.

Clearly, the Celtics ownership has greenlit BZ to spend so they won't be under the gun to make a deal.
 

lovegtm

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Agreed. Brad/Zarren (BZ) will be opportunistic.

Once Jaylen's 1-year kicks in BZ will be taking calls from ~20 teams that want a 27-yr old Alpha WING on a multi-year contract. Those other teams know the C's will be in JB for multiple players/assets mode (due to the CBA) which usually equates to a WIN for the GM that would acquire Jaylen Brown. BZ will publicly say that JB isn't on the trade block, until they get exactly what they need to surround Tatum.

Clearly, the Celtics ownership has greenlit BZ to spend so they won't be under the gun to make a deal.
Good point re the coming inbound calls.
 

Imbricus

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I thought it was funny rereading the scouting profile on Jaylen before draft night:
Long known to have issues turning over the ball, his hands have been questioned, can lose the ball in traffic and will bring the ball low too often … Loses focus on both ends, this will need to be addressed as far as his defense at the next level … Could definitely look for teammates a bit more, let the game come to him rather than force the issue …
To be fair, the profile is overall very flattering, e.g., "Very long, near 7-foot wingspan with fantastic strength, and explosiveness that help his readiness for the league greatly" and "Has some definite dexterity and potential as a defender, really strong body control and agility that is rare given his size."
 

Euclis20

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It's interesting that even when you hit 95% of your ceiling (which Jaylen certainly has), it's hard to fundamentally change who you are.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agreed. Brad/Zarren (BZ) will be opportunistic.

Once Jaylen's 1-year kicks in BZ will be taking calls from ~20 teams that want a 27-yr old Alpha WING on a multi-year contract. Those other teams know the C's will be in JB for multiple players/assets mode (due to the CBA) which usually equates to a WIN for the GM that would acquire Jaylen Brown. BZ will publicly say that JB isn't on the trade block, until they get exactly what they need to surround Tatum.

Clearly, the Celtics ownership has greenlit BZ to spend so they won't be under the gun to make a deal.
I know that you explained BZ. But when I see it, I see "Bradzilla". And that's what I'll be calling him going forward.

If--and I think that it's an if, not a when--Bradzilla decides that it benefits the team to trade a Jaylen dollar for three quarters that fit the pocket better, he'll certainly have offers. Until then I'll do my best to remain quietly in the "WTF are you guys talking about" zone.
 

TripleOT

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Now that the Celtics have a floor stretching, rim defending, rim running 7’3” center, and two do everything, team oriented guards with size, why not have two all NBA type wings? With the kind of talent at the top of this roster, the team‘s biggest regular season problem is who is going to go off on any particular night. Jrue, White, and Tatum will almost always get the ball to the right place, and KP and JB also seem committed to making the right play. Brown’s game is attack mode, but he needs to be a bit more discerning when he doesn’t have a clear advantage now that this team is loaded with offensive talent.

Trading JB for three decent rotation players makes little sense to me. It might be a hedge against regular season injuries and result in a couple more regular season wins if injuries do hit, but in the playoffs, when rotations tighten, I’d rather have JB, and a lesser seventh and eighth man.

Once the top five figure out how better to play with each other, this team is going to steamroll most of the league.
 

lovegtm

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Now that the Celtics have a floor stretching, rim defending, rim running 7’3” center, and two do everything, team oriented guards with size, why not have two all NBA type wings? With the kind of talent at the top of this roster, the team‘s biggest regular season problem is who is going to go off on any particular night. Jrue, White, and Tatum will almost always get the ball to the right place, and KP and JB also seem committed to making the right play. Brown’s game is attack mode, but he needs to be a bit more discerning when he doesn’t have a clear advantage now that this team is loaded with offensive talent.

Trading JB for three decent rotation players makes little sense to me. It might be a hedge against regular season injuries and result in a couple more regular season wins if injuries do hit, but in the playoffs, when rotations tighten, I’d rather have JB, and a lesser seventh and eighth man.

Once the top five figure out how better to play with each other, this team is going to steamroll most of the league.
It's totally fine, this year! (When Jaylen costs $31M).

When his salary jumps to $50M+, things get tough. You start to ask whether you want an elite 3&D guy plus someone else and extra assets to pull off the next Jrue trade in the future.

if Jaylen+guys were a solid offense, the way it is with Tatum, they'd probably look more to keep him.
 

gammoseditor

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It's totally fine, this year! (When Jaylen costs $31M).

When his salary jumps to $50M+, things get tough. You start to ask whether you want an elite 3&D guy plus someone else and extra assets to pull off the next Jrue trade in the future.

if Jaylen+guys were a solid offense, the way it is with Tatum, they'd probably look more to keep him.
There are two wild cards here. One is where ownership is willing to go with luxury tax payments. You may need to pick between Jaylen and Jrue + trade return for Jaylen. The other is how this season ends.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Now that the Celtics have a floor stretching, rim defending, rim running 7’3” center, and two do everything, team oriented guards with size, why not have two all NBA type wings? With the kind of talent at the top of this roster, the team‘s biggest regular season problem is who is going to go off on any particular night. Jrue, White, and Tatum will almost always get the ball to the right place, and KP and JB also seem committed to making the right play. Brown’s game is attack mode, but he needs to be a bit more discerning when he doesn’t have a clear advantage now that this team is loaded with offensive talent.

Trading JB for three decent rotation players makes little sense to me. It might be a hedge against regular season injuries and result in a couple more regular season wins if injuries do hit, but in the playoffs, when rotations tighten, I’d rather have JB, and a lesser seventh and eighth man.

Once the top five figure out how better to play with each other, this team is going to steamroll most of the league.
I think the issue is what, if anything, does JB's cap hit hold the team back from doing? Holiday is going FA after this season if not re-signed. Tatum is approaching another max extension. They are deep into the tax, which even more than before limits them from certain moves.
 

benhogan

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"WTF are you guys talking about" zone.
which is the clever stance since many of us (I'm guilty as charged :oops:) have been speculating on Jaylen Brown fake trades for years.

I'd hate to go back and see past suggestions or what some of the board comps were for Jaylen :eek:
 

PedroKsBambino

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It's totally fine, this year! (When Jaylen costs $31M).

When his salary jumps to $50M+, things get tough. You start to ask whether you want an elite 3&D guy plus someone else and extra assets to pull off the next Jrue trade in the future.

if Jaylen+guys were a solid offense, the way it is with Tatum, they'd probably look more to keep him.
I continue to think they are going to play Jaylen + bench more than we might like because they are trying to figure out if the above can be true - and they want to have that as more of an option come playoff time. I don't know if it'll work or not---his passing is a bit better this season, and there were stretches last season his scoring was up to the task...but we've really never seen him be able to do it with any consistency.
 

lovegtm

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I continue to think they are going to play Jaylen + bench more than we might like because they are trying to figure out if the above can be true - and they want to have that as more of an option come playoff time. I don't know if it'll work or not---his passing is a bit better this season, and there were stretches last season his scoring was up to the task...but we've really never seen him be able to do it with any consistency.
I think you're right, that they want to evaluate that. They also want to see whether JB+KP can be a thing, to stagger and play them together always.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Agreed; they are trending towards JB/KP and JT/Jrue pairings with the bench guys, and those both make sense - though it does leave a lot of ballhandling and creating to be done with the first pair.

One of the other things thus far is Horford is neither playing all that well nor fitting all that great with KP. I'm not really worried about it, and he's a guy who is appropriately moving down in his role, but it's something to keep an eye on a bit
 

benhogan

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Agreed; they are trending towards JB/KP and JT/Jrue pairings with the bench guys, and those both make sense - though it does leave a lot of ballhandling and creating to be done with the first pair.

One of the other things thus far is Horford is neither playing all that well nor fitting all that great with KP. I'm not really worried about it, and he's a guy who is appropriately moving down in his role, but it's something to keep an eye on a bit
The pairing of White with KP/JB will help with ball security. Joe has been bringing Sam/Horford off the bench first with those 3 (SSS aside).

Would CJM bring in PP/Sam for JT/JH to further help with the ball handling? This would further cement Horford as the backup 5, which Al may not be thrilled with.
 

lovegtm

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Agreed; they are trending towards JB/KP and JT/Jrue pairings with the bench guys, and those both make sense - though it does leave a lot of ballhandling and creating to be done with the first pair.

One of the other things thus far is Horford is neither playing all that well nor fitting all that great with KP. I'm not really worried about it, and he's a guy who is appropriately moving down in his role, but it's something to keep an eye on a bit
I think Horford is at the point in his career where he should just be the backup C, and they should end this double big nonsense. Particularly with Jrue doing great guarding up, and Tatum rebounding well.
 

Van Everyman

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SSS and all but Jaylen seems to be more opportunistic on defense when it comes to stealing the ball this year. The Jrue/Derrick effect?
 

Auger34

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Agreed; they are trending towards JB/KP and JT/Jrue pairings with the bench guys, and those both make sense - though it does leave a lot of ballhandling and creating to be done with the first pair.

One of the other things thus far is Horford is neither playing all that well nor fitting all that great with KP. I'm not really worried about it, and he's a guy who is appropriately moving down in his role, but it's something to keep an eye on a bit
In the games I've watched, that's been my takeaway too. Al just looks rough all around. I'm only somewhat worried because of his age but it is something to monitor
 

Auger34

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I continue to think they are going to play Jaylen + bench more than we might like because they are trying to figure out if the above can be true - and they want to have that as more of an option come playoff time. I don't know if it'll work or not---his passing is a bit better this season, and there were stretches last season his scoring was up to the task...but we've really never seen him be able to do it with any consistency.
I think his passing has actually improved a decent amount but his handle....his handle is still rough. It's disappointing that it hasn't improved more but this is probably who he is at this point (with respect to handling the ball)
 

RorschachsMask

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Me and a few people in my nba discord have been curious if they’d just leave White, Holiday, AND KP out there with Jaylen, then have the fifth guy depending on the matchup.

Last night they did a bit of that, and also went White/KP/Jaylen/Hauser/Al, and they were +4 when Tatum sat.
 

RorschachsMask

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In the games I've watched, that's been my takeaway too. Al just looks rough all around. I'm only somewhat worried because of his age but it is something to monitor
His offense has been brutal, but by pretty much any early metric, he’s still been on of the best defensive bigs in the league, and elite on switches.

If we had to choose an end for him to expend his energy on, I think most would prefer defense. I’d have to think that his shots will eventually start to fall, somewhat lol.
 

Auger34

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Me and a few people in my nba discord have been curious if they’d just leave White, Holiday, AND KP out there with Jaylen, then have the fifth guy depending on the matchup.

Last night they did a decent amount of that, and they were +4 when Tatum sat.
Honestly, I think the most important thing (and I can't believe I am saying this) is picking one of KP or Horford to play with Jaylen. The two of them out there together just doesn't look good...and since Horford's shot has completely abandoned him at this point, it's tough to do much on offense.

For example, I'd be fine with White/Pritchard/Hauser/Jaylen/KP out there. Jaylen can guard up (the 4 in this case) and I don't mind the spacing with that group.

I really like that Joe is making JB/KP a thing. It's easy offense for JB (initating a pick and roll with KP) and gives him some playmaking confidence out there that can be used later in the year
 

Montana Fan

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In the games I've watched, that's been my takeaway too. Al just looks rough all around. I'm only somewhat worried because of his age but it is something to monitor
His defense looks good though which speaks to how fresh they’ve been keeping him. I was specifically watching him on D yesterday and he blew up a lot of what the Knicks were trying to do.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Honestly, I think the most important thing (and I can't believe I am saying this) is picking one of KP or Horford to play with Jaylen. The two of them out there together just doesn't look good...and since Horford's shot has completely abandoned him at this point, it's tough to do much on offense.

For example, I'd be fine with White/Pritchard/Hauser/Jaylen/KP out there. Jaylen can guard up (the 4 in this case) and I don't mind the spacing with that group.

I really like that Joe is making JB/KP a thing. It's easy offense for JB (initating a pick and roll with KP) and gives him some playmaking confidence out there that can be used later in the year
I've been talking about this in the game threads a bit lately.

Jaylen, IMO, needs to be on the court at all times with 2 of the 3 guards (White/Jrue/PP). Lately, that first substitution has involved pulling Tatum/Jrue off the floor, and putting in Hauser/Horford. So you end up with White/Jaylen/Hauser/Horford/KP.

Jaylen and KP's two man game has been fantastic. But, in almost any other situation, you end up with Jaylen initiating and that's where the shit hits the fan. White can initiate, but he really doesn't initiate with the intent to score, so it doesn't draw the defense like a guy such as Jrue does, so it ends up kind of stilted.


Jaylen when forced into the 2, by virtue of not having two ballhandlers, is when he seems to my eye, to be at his worst. Sometimes, he and Holiday get away with it, because Holiday is a guy who can look for his offense when he penetrates and thus commands more attention, but if you have one guard, who then gets into traffic and kicks out, Jaylen is going to catch that and try to penetrate, and let's just say Jaylen trying to penetrate against a defense that is also not respecting Horford at the moment is not a good recipe, and I simply don't want Jaylen being the drive and kick guy regularly. I want him to be the guy the drive and kick guy kicks to.

Anything involving Brown/Horford/KP/Hauser is a problem for me right now. I just hate Jaylen in a double big lineup on this team. I would prefer bringing PP in for Horford in that lineup, myself.
 

PedroKsBambino

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His defense looks good though which speaks to how fresh they’ve been keeping him. I was specifically watching him on D yesterday and he blew up a lot of what the Knicks were trying to do.
I agree, Horford's D remains very solid and combined with his passing is a lot of his contribution overall. His shot, hopefully, will come back to 36% or so on threes and that's enough (more is just gravy). He's also had a couple post-ups when he has a favorable matchup, which is good to see and helpful against switches
 

lovegtm

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I agree, Horford's D remains very solid and combined with his passing is a lot of his contribution overall. His shot, hopefully, will come back to 36% or so on threes and that's enough (more is just gravy). He's also had a couple post-ups when he has a favorable matchup, which is good to see and helpful against switches
The real issue is that you'd rather have him not play much with KP, which only leaves 15-20 mins/game, and you'd ideally like Hauser's minutes expanded too.
 

JakeRae

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The real issue is that you'd rather have him not play much with KP, which only leaves 15-20 mins/game, and you'd ideally like Hauser's minutes expanded too.
Do you really want Hauser’s minutes expanded. I feel like I spent the offseason defending Hauser as a quality rotation player, but 20mpg for his role feels right, and he’s at 19.5 mpg so far this season. He’s a pure 3-point specialist and would likely get exposed in an expanded role. The current 8+ man rotation seems like exactly the right minutes distribution.

Tatum leads the starters at 36mpg, which is a touch higher than ideal. The other starters sit between 30 and 34 mpg, which is more or less perfect. Horford is at 24 mpg and Pritchard and Hauser are at 20mpg. I don’t think there’s any need for adjustments besides reducing Tatum’s minutes slightly. (I’m ignoring the rest of the bench but Kornet has played about 10 mpg in most games and Brisset 10 mpg in about half of games, and comprise the + in the 8+ man rotation.).
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's totally fine, this year! (When Jaylen costs $31M).

When his salary jumps to $50M+, things get tough. You start to ask whether you want an elite 3&D guy plus someone else and extra assets to pull off the next Jrue trade in the future.

if Jaylen+guys were a solid offense, the way it is with Tatum, they'd probably look more to keep him.
What will the cap look like in 3 years though? Does the $8-10B of expansion fees count toward league revenue numbers that affect the cap? We may have two expansion teams by then as well as further global growth. I'm not saying Jaylens contract will ever be a bargain but it may not hamper us as much as we think. I've been torn on him remaining here for a few years now but a Title will surely keep him around through the '24-'25 season at the very least.
 

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What will the cap look like in 3 years though? Does the $8-10B of expansion fees count toward league revenue numbers that affect the cap? We may have two expansion teams by then as well as further global growth. I'm not saying Jaylens contract will ever be a bargain but it may not hamper us as much as we think. I've been torn on him remaining here for a few years now but a Title will surely keep him around through the '24-'25 season at the very least.
Aren't max contracts for a percentage - 35% in JB's case - so the cap going up doesn't provide any relative savings?
 

lovegtm

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Aren't max contracts for a percentage - 35% in JB's case - so the cap going up doesn't provide any relative savings?
He gets 8% raises each year, and the cap can only rise a maximum of 10%. If the cap starts spiking, his contract can get down somewhere close to 30% towards the end, iirc.

What will the cap look like in 3 years though? Does the $8-10B of expansion fees count toward league revenue numbers that affect the cap? We may have two expansion teams by then as well as further global growth. I'm not saying Jaylens contract will ever be a bargain but it may not hamper us as much as we think. I've been torn on him remaining here for a few years now but a Title will surely keep him around through the '24-'25 season at the very least.
The problem is that the cap can only go up 10% at a time, and his contract goes up 8% each year. His contract can get a bit more palatable, but can never be that much of a bargain.

If we had a 2016-style cap spike then yes, it could have become an overnight bargain, but that was (wisely) negotiated out by both parties this time around.
 
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lovegtm

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Do you really want Hauser’s minutes expanded. I feel like I spent the offseason defending Hauser as a quality rotation player, but 20mpg for his role feels right, and he’s at 19.5 mpg so far this season. He’s a pure 3-point specialist and would likely get exposed in an expanded role. The current 8+ man rotation seems like exactly the right minutes distribution.

Tatum leads the starters at 36mpg, which is a touch higher than ideal. The other starters sit between 30 and 34 mpg, which is more or less perfect. Horford is at 24 mpg and Pritchard and Hauser are at 20mpg. I don’t think there’s any need for adjustments besides reducing Tatum’s minutes slightly. (I’m ignoring the rest of the bench but Kornet has played about 10 mpg in most games and Brisset 10 mpg in about half of games, and comprise the + in the 8+ man rotation.).
What is the evidence that Hauser would get exposed in a standard role? His defense is fine, and you can fit a shooting wing into any non-starting lineup. If you take Horford down to 17-20 mins (the non-KP minutes), you can get Hauser up to 25 or so, which means keeping a real shooter on the floor instead of Horford at the 4, where he just isn't stretching the D with his shot anymore.

The whole "Hauser looks good on D because the coaching staff goes out of its way to protect him from bad matchups" is one of those cached thoughts that may have once been true, but that doesn't really hold up to watching the tape, and probably needs to be garbage-collected.
 

Spelunker

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He gets 8% raises each year, and the cap can only rise a maximum of 10%. If the cap starts spiking, his contract can get down somewhere close to 30% towards the end, iirc.
Yean, spotrac has him estimated at $65,604,000 / 31.56% in 28/29.
 

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The whole "Hauser looks good on D because the coaching staff goes out of its way to protect him from bad matchups" is one of those cached thoughts that may have once been true, but that doesn't really hold up to watching the tape, and probably needs to be garbage-collected.
Anyone saying the quoted simply hasn't been watching the games.
 

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Nov 2, 2007
22,273
Santa Monica
Do you really want Hauser’s minutes expanded. I feel like I spent the offseason defending Hauser as a quality rotation player, but 20mpg for his role feels right, and he’s at 19.5 mpg so far this season. He’s a pure 3-point specialist and would likely get exposed in an expanded role. The current 8+ man rotation seems like exactly the right minutes distribution.

Tatum leads the starters at 36mpg, which is a touch higher than ideal. The other starters sit between 30 and 34 mpg, which is more or less perfect. Horford is at 24 mpg and Pritchard and Hauser are at 20mpg. I don’t think there’s any need for adjustments besides reducing Tatum’s minutes slightly. (I’m ignoring the rest of the bench but Kornet has played about 10 mpg in most games and Brisset 10 mpg in about half of games, and comprise the + in the 8+ man rotation.).
I hope Joe pushes the so-called envelope with Hauser minutes to ~24mpg. We spent all last season begging Joe to bump Whites' minutes/role, Brad took away that option

It's November in the NBA. This is the time of year you curtail Al's minutes & increase the minutes of your 25yr old WING that is hitting 3s at 46%+
 

JakeRae

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Jul 21, 2005
8,371
New York, NY
I hope Joe pushes the so-called envelope with Hauser minutes to ~24mpg. We spent all last season begging Joe to bump Whites' minutes/role, Brad took away that option

It's November in the NBA. This is the time of year you curtail Al's minutes & increase the minutes of your 25yr old WING that is hitting 3s at 46%+
Horford is playing 6 mpg less than he did the last 2 years and has lost his starting role. His minutes aren’t going to get cut to sub-20 territory to expand the role of a 3rd year player that Horford remains meaningfully better than. Horford is off to a poor state shooting, but he’s still an excellent defender and his shot will come around. Hauser is off to a scorching start shooting and he deserves the first wing off the bench role Brad cleared for him this offseason by letting Grant Williams go. If Horford continues to shoot at Mendoza-line levels, we can revisit this conversation once we’re a meaningful distance into the season (maybe another 15-20 games), but even then player management reasons almost certainly keep him as the clear top minutes guy on the bench.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
22,273
Santa Monica
Horford is playing 6 mpg less than he did the last 2 years and has lost his starting role. His minutes aren’t going to get cut to sub-20 territory to expand the role of a 3rd year player that Horford remains meaningfully better than. Horford is off to a poor state shooting, but he’s still an excellent defender and his shot will come around. Hauser is off to a scorching start shooting and he deserves the first wing off the bench role Brad cleared for him this offseason by letting Grant Williams go. If Horford continues to shoot at Mendoza-line levels, we can revisit this conversation once we’re a meaningful distance into the season (maybe another 15-20 games), but even then player management reasons almost certainly keep him as the clear top minutes guy on the bench.
My interest in Horford being shrink-wrapped during the regular season dates back to the start of last season. I have zero qualms with his play so far this year and want him well-rested (but still playing ~20mpg) by the playoffs this year.

Horford was possibly overused/taxed last year (his highest mpg in 5 seasons) during the regular season. Why not avoid that by letting him share the 5 with KP?
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
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What will the cap look like in 3 years though? Does the $8-10B of expansion fees count toward league revenue numbers that affect the cap? We may have two expansion teams by then as well as further global growth. I'm not saying Jaylens contract will ever be a bargain but it may not hamper us as much as we think. I've been torn on him remaining here for a few years now but a Title will surely keep him around through the '24-'25 season at the very least.
I personally think, barring an unexpected turnaround in the way he approaches the game, Jaylen is probably gone no matter what. IMO Brad and Wyc will prefer having a more multi-faceted player or two and some strong draft capital to risking having Jaylen on your roster at 60 mil per year, even if it's just a matter of spreading out your injury risk.
 

Euclis20

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Aug 3, 2004
9,702
Oakland
My interest in Horford being shrink-wrapped during the regular season dates back to the start of last season. I have zero qualms with his play so far this year and want him well-rested (but still playing ~20mpg) by the playoffs this year.

Horford was possibly overused/taxed last year (his highest mpg in 5 seasons) during the regular season. Why not avoid that by letting him share the 5 with KP?
Balanced out by the fact that his total minutes (1922) were the fewest he's played (outside of the year off with OKC) since 2014. He didn't miss time with any major injuries that I remember (he did miss 5 straight in December so I might just be forgetting), but I think more days off (and no back to backs) are more restful than playing 1-2 fewer minutes per game. I suspect the Celtics will do both for him this year (fewer minutes and plenty of games off) as everyone realizes he's only got so many big games left.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
32,152
Balanced out by the fact that his total minutes (1922) were the fewest he's played (outside of the year off with OKC) since 2014. He didn't miss time with any major injuries that I remember (he did miss 5 straight in December so I might just be forgetting), but I think more days off (and no back to backs) are more restful than playing 1-2 fewer minutes per game. I suspect the Celtics will do both for him this year (fewer minutes and plenty of games off) as everyone realizes he's only got so many big games left.
I'm a huge proponent over full days off as opposed to reduced workload of several minutes per game for older players. The reason for Horford's reduced minutes this year however have nothing to do with shrink wrapping him and all to do with not being worthy of starters minutes when we are at full strength as that wouldn't be his role. His only two games of 30+ min were when he WAS in the starting lineup replacing White when the latter was out.
 

Euclis20

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Aug 3, 2004
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Oakland
His mpg will go up as the season goes on, too. Unless we think Tatum/Brown/Holiday/Porzingis will all play the full 82, Horford is gonna get plenty of starts to get his minutes per closer to 30.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
42,847
His mpg will go up as the season goes on, too. Unless we think Tatum/Brown/Holiday/Porzingis will all play the full 82, Horford is gonna get plenty of starts to get his minutes per closer to 30.
I'm not sure about that, because the other part of this minutes thing is that the C's are going to be blowing out a lot of teams this year. I don't think we see Joe running Tatum or anyone else out there with a 16 point lead and 2-3 minutes left like he did last night for the entire season, and this team really should put about 25% of their games to bed by the end of the third quarter.

Couple that with the back to backs coming up starting in December (they have one this month, with Charlotte on day 2) then 3 in December and then 4 in January.

I think we'll start seeing him get a ton of rest, and if I'm Joe, thats the opportunity to get Hauser a bunch of minutes and maybe he then overtakes Al for the stretch run, minutes wise.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
32,152
His mpg will go up as the season goes on, too. Unless we think Tatum/Brown/Holiday/Porzingis will all play the full 82, Horford is gonna get plenty of starts to get his minutes per closer to 30.
Right. My point is that when we are at full strength his role is that of a 18-22 mpg guy. He isn't playing 22 to save him from anything....he's playing 22 bc our starting unit is freakin awesome and his job is to spell them during their blows. In games when he's starting his role that night will be to play longer rotations and have Kornet, etc spell him.