Jarren Duran

Jed Zeppelin

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Curious to see how the power translates at Fenway. Seeing a lot of high fly balls to what would be the deepest parts in Boston.
 

koufax32

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I’ve only heard one minor leaguer’s bat sound like that in person. Back in the day, the Jacksonville Suns had some kid named Mike Stanton.

Just your friendly reminder that F. Cordero batted 7th today.
 

Gash Prex

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Didn’t see anything about Duran in the Olympics qualifiers - just a little comparison to Mike Trout

In USA’s 7-1 win over Nicaragua in their opening game on Monday, Duran went 3-for-6 while gunning down a runner trying to stretch a double into a triple.

Afterwards, MLB veteran Todd Frazier told The Athletic, “He’s gonna be a stud. I said (Mike Trout) is going to be something, and I’m thinking the same thing about Duran.”
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/06/03/mastrodonato-red-sox-offensive-struggles-are-making-the-case-for-jarren-duran/
 

Gash Prex

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Unless something drastically changes, going to be a bit for Jarren

“Obviously, the conversations will always be there. He just had a great tournament down there in Florida,” Cora said on a pregame video conference Monday before Boston’s contest against the Miami Marlins. “There’s a guy that is going to impact this team in the future. The future doesn’t mean tomorrow, or in a month. It might be next year, or in two years. But we know he’s a good player. The way he impacts the game offensively, running the bases, is eye-opening.

“We know that he’s a good player. We know that he still has some things he has to get better. But we keep talking about him and we’re very happy where he’s at right now,” Cora said. “Now, he has to go back and play and keep getting better. But obviously, like Chaim (Bloom) said in spring training, I think it’s something we’ll keep paying attention to him and we’ll see what happens in the future.”
https://nesn.com/2021/06/it-sounds-like-red-sox-will-continue-to-play-long-game-with-jarren-duran/
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Cross post from the Dalbec thread.

A little more on Duran re Worchester and power.

At Home: .286/.375/.735, 6 HRs, 56 PA
Away: .222/.349/.417, 2 HRs, 43 PA.

Obviously hitting for way more power at home but he has close to a .200 ISO on the road which is still pretty solid and would easily be a career high.

Vs RHP: .234/.347/.563 in 75 PA, 10bb/18k, 6 HR.
Vs LHP: .333/.417/.714 in 24 PA, 2bb/7k, 2 HR.

SSS, but it looks like he's hitting for power from both sides as well.

Another thing I found interesting: He somehow only has 7 PA against pitchers younger than he is... which lead me to find out the average age of a AAA player is older than the average age of a MLB player. The average AAA player is 28.2 years old. The average MLB player is 27.2 years old. I'm surprised I didn't know this since I'm kind of a minor league junkie. I'm guessing the average age of A and AA players goes up roughly a year this season too, due to covid.

He's hitting .000/.143/.000 in those 7 PA, 1bb/3k.
vs older: .278/.380/.646 in 92 PA, 11bb/22k.

His career walk rate going into the season was 7.0%. This season it is currently at 12.1%. Sometimes an increase in power leads to more walks, so while I doubt he maintains that rate, I'm guessing it will be considerably higher than his career rate. He's also striking out more at 25.3%. His career rate was exactly 20.0% going into the season.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I thought that everyone saying (typing) "Worchester" was doing so in regards to the minor league article that referred to the Central MA affiliate as such. "Francy is in Worchesteir" was a bit, I thought.... I guess not.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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I guess Candlepin bowling was invented in Worcester but I don't get the reference? I'm not into candlepin bowling. It's also a reflex to go with chester. I'll be doing it a lot. I did it last time, but I had to hit backspace.
The image is of a split colloquially known as a "Half Worcester".

The story goes that in the early days of the game, a team from Boston was in a match against a team from Worcester. The Worcester team needed a mark in their final box, and punched out either the 2-8 or the 3-9. Someone on the Boston team or in the crowd called out "You're halfway back to Worcester!"

(As with the Spread Eagle, it's not possible to punch pins like that in tenpin bowling, but you will sometimes see the same split in duckpin bowling. I don't think either split carries the same name in duckpins.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Going into the year, he had 13 career HRs at all levels (college, Minors, Foreign, not ST) in 2179 PA, 1900 AB. That's 1 HR every 146 AB.

He has 10 this year in 116 PA/100 AB. That's 1 HR every 10 At bats. Walk rate is still at 12.1%. K rate dropped a little to 24.1%.

.260/.362/.610 for the season on a .333 BAbip.

After his recent road trip
Away: .235/.350/.490, 4 HR. 51 AB, 60 PA.

June: .214/.353/.571, 4bb/7k. 34 PA/28 AB, 3 HR. (this is his all his current road trip and when he returned to AAA, 6 games)

3 of his 4 road HRs have come in the last 4 games. (22 PA, 20 AB)
 

Gash Prex

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"June: .214/.353/.571, 4bb/7k. 34 PA/28 AB, 3 HR. (this is his all his current road trip and when he returned to AAA, 6 games) "

Seems a little unfair given that he spent a good amount of time with Team USA where he went 7 for 19

"Duran, who Baseball America has listed No. 86 on its Top 100, went 7-for-19 (.368) with one double, one triple, one stolen base, three runs, three RBIs, one walk and four strikeouts."

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/red-sox-prospects-jarren-duran-triston-casas-combined-to-go-13-for-34-for-team-usa-that-type-of-competition-can-be-really-valuable.html
 

Cesar Crespo

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"June: .214/.353/.571, 4bb/7k. 34 PA/28 AB, 3 HR. (this is his all his current road trip and when he returned to AAA, 6 games) "

Seems a little unfair given that he spent a good amount of time with Team USA where he went 7 for 19

"Duran, who Baseball America has listed No. 86 on its Top 100, went 7-for-19 (.368) with one double, one triple, one stolen base, three runs, three RBIs, one walk and four strikeouts."

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/red-sox-prospects-jarren-duran-triston-casas-combined-to-go-13-for-34-for-team-usa-that-type-of-competition-can-be-really-valuable.html
What's unfair about it? There's no opinion attached to it.

Attaching an opinion to it, I thought it was a pretty good 34 PA.
 

Gash Prex

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What's unfair about it? There's no opinion attached to it.

Attaching an opinion to it, I thought it was a pretty good 34 PA.
That's totally fair and I should have used a better word - my point was that his season line is actually better it than appears (especially on the road).

I think the biggest concern with Duran is his defense. His power is clearly real.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That's totally fair and I should have used a better word - my point was that his season line is actually better it than appears (especially on the road).

I think the biggest concern with Duran is his defense. His power is clearly real.
He was 6/28 (.214) He was 3/18 (.167) with balls put in play. Give him another hit, he's hitting .250. 2 more, he's hitting .286.

Sample sizes are so small that I was more focused on the power numbers on the road. There was a little chatter as to if his power surge was mostly due to Worcester. His recent road trip is answering some of those concerns.

The power is real. D is definitely an issue. I don't think contact is going to be an issue. Baseball reference is acting kind of funky but I think his BAbip for the year is .258 (16/62). With average luck, he'd h be hitting .290 instead of .260.
 

begranter

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Looking at some of the metrics (all per Fangraphs) around the batted ball profiles a few things stand out at an admittedly surface level analysis:
38.5% HR/FB - No way this is sustainable, even with the adjustments in his swing. MLB average is usually right under 10%. For reference, '02-'07 Bonds' HR/FB% was 25.1%. Trout is in the 20%-25% range most seasons, (though he is sitting at over 30% this year). This is one area I would expect to see significant regression.
30.0%/32.9%/37.1%/3.8% LD%/GB%/FB%/IFFB% - League average is around 21%/44%/35%/11% - seems like a lot of benefit coming from keeping the ball in the air while avoiding IFFB. I think this could be a clear development from the swing change as he was putting the ball on the ground 50% of the time last year.
50.0%/23.6%/26.4% Pull/Center/Oppo - huge shift vs last year where 41.5% of the time he was going Oppo. So he's shifted from being a extreme opposite field hitter to just short of an extreme pull hitter (40% and 55% thresholds, accordingly). Will be interesting to see if pitchers can adjust to this change, and if Jarren can adjust in response. Seeing how he is able to adjust and evolve via adversity may be one of the pieces Bloom & co are looking to see.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If this power is legit.... couldn't he get pushed to Fenway as a RF if his defense is still questionable at best. How is his arm strength?
An outfield (for the stretch run of '21) of Duran in LF, Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF seems pretty good IMO.
And a future OF with Jimenez in CF with Dugo back in RF also looks pretty tantalizing (maybe by '23?)
 

joe dokes

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I think the team needs a better handle on Worcester's park effects. Duran is 286/375/735 at home and 235/350/490 on the road. The road number (esp the OBP) is still very good, but the split may be causing the team to hesitate (or to at least stick with the overall plan of letting him have some significant time at AAA).
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If this power is legit.... couldn't he get pushed to Fenway as a RF if his defense is still questionable at best. How is his arm strength?
An outfield (for the stretch run of '21) of Duran in LF, Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF seems pretty good IMO.
And a future OF with Jimenez in CF with Dugo back in RF also looks pretty tantalizing (maybe by '23?)
RF? Did you mean LF? RF at Fenway requires extraordinary skill
 

soxhop411

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Nice profile on Duran and how his power surge can be traced back to his dad
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/
For most prospects, the 2020 cancellation of the minor league season represented a jarring time that jeopardized their career progress. For Jarren Duran, it became a time of transformation that set the stage for one of the most promising minor leaguers in the Red Sox system to take his game to another level.
In college and his pro debut, Duran showed considerable promise as a player who slashed line drives into the gaps and used speed to create havoc. But his power was well below-average — he hit eight homers in 199 professional games in 2018-19 — raising questions about whether speed and average alone could allow him to emerge as an everyday player.
Duran overhauled his swing in the winter of 2019-20 to create more lift and improve his ability to drive the ball. Still, no one could have anticipated how far those changes would have gone by the time he showed up at the McCoy Stadium alternate site in 2020.
He blasted eight homers in two months of intrasquad scrimmages. This year, in 28 minor league games with Triple-A Worcester through Friday, the 24-year-old outfielder had launched 11 round-trippers, hitting .277/.373/.613, and driving the ball like few others in the minors.
“The consistency of him driving balls over the fence — and beyond — in games and even more so in BP definitely stood out [starting at the alternate site],” said Red Sox VP Ben Crockett. “It was just very different from where he had been.”
How did he come out of the shutdown as an appreciably different player? For that, Octavio Duran — Jarren’s father — deserves a significant measure of credit.
There were some players who lacked access to workout facilities when spring training shut down last March. Jarren Duran was not among them.

His father, Octavio Duran, is a 6-foot-1-inch mountain who started weightlifting in high school — a way of competing on the basketball court when he was undersized, prior to a growth spurt — and never stopped.

“I studied [weightlifting] and learned from what suited me, not what people recommended. I created my own workouts,” said Octavio Duran, a manager at PepsiCo. “I’m just a gym rat. It’s one of the things I love. I have a passion for it.”

Because of that passion, Jarren Duran went to work immediately at the conclusion of his four-day, cross-country drive from Florida to Buena Park, Calif. His goal was to stay ready if and when the Red Sox recalled him.

“I came home to a garage full of weights and everything that’s been there for years,” said Jarren Duran. “I’m thankful I have a dad who loves to lift, stay in shape — it definitely helped me out [during the shutdown].”

A partnership was reborn. For the first time in years, Jarren Duran was at home with his parents, Octavio and Dena. On most days, Octavio would return from work and join his son in the garage gym.

“It just felt amazing to spend that quality time with him,” said Octavio Duran.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/

more at the link.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Cross posting some stuff:

I'm all for calling Duran up but he's only had 140 PA at the AAA level, and only 140 PA of hitting for any type of in game power. He's also not very good defensively and has a fringe arm. While the scouting reports have kind of caught up with Duran, I think his bat could now play at RF or LF.

And while he was unlucky, Duran was hitting .244 (.244/.346/.567 on a .250 BAbip) to start June 12th.

Last 7 games: 36 PA, .406/.472/.750, .435 BAbip, 2 2b, 3 HR, 3bb/6k.

For the year in 2021 AAA: .287/.379/.615, .304 BAbip. 15bb/32k. 10.7% BB%, 22.9% K rate. ISO of .328.

Compared to 2019 in AA: .250/.309/.325, .335 BAbip. 23bb/84k. 6.5% BB%,23.9% K rate. ISO of .075.


I'm trying to find a bad trend for the guy and I can't. While adding considerable power to his game, he's managed to strike out minimally less and walk considerably more. You'd expect to see an increase in walks with an increase in power, but you'd also expect to see an uptick in strikeouts. This hasn't happened. He's also destroying his AA performance despite not having the typical BAbip luck that he's had throughout his career. That could be a product of hitting more fly balls. With ground balls, his speed comes into play and there are less of those lately.

His ISO this year is literally higher than his OBP in AA and his Slugging % of .615 is a good game away from being better than his .634 OPS in AA.

We are more likely to see him in Boston this year than not.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Currently on an 8 game hitting streak that raised his average from .252 to .294 and his BAbip from .257 to .315.

8 games, 38 PA/32 AB, .438/.500/.750, .500 BAbip, 3 HR, 4bb/8k.

Since he returned to AAA: 16 games, 83 PA/71 AB, .310/.398/.606, .333 BAbip, 6 HR, 8bb/18k.