Jarren Duran: Today We Like Him

Cesar Crespo

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I'm actually not super worried about Yorke, between the injuries, the lowish BABIP, the reasonable K rate... I think he just needs to get all the way healthy and then the production will return. Foot injuries are tough on hitters. Now, if he doesn't/can't get healthy, it's just not going to work out, but you could say that about any prospect. Is there something I'm missing there?
No, I just used him because he's one of the only disappointments down on the farm this year. BA had him ranked 31, BP 40 and MLB 55 coming into 2022. Some people here were lumping him in with Casas and Mayer. He's struggled this year and is going to go in the wrong direction re: list/perceived value. He's going to be closer to 100 than 31 going into 2023.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Rafaela could see time in 2023. I'd have to imagine he's starting 2023 in AAA and if he gets off to a good start, could earn a promotion. Given that he can play every position, getting him at bats shouldn't be a concern either.

Enmanuel Valdez should see some playing time in 2023 as well. He's just as "close" as Casas, if not closer. Things would have to go very wrong for him not to see time in 2023.

Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez will also see time in 2023 if they are still on the team.


edit: Not sure what you mean be realistic contributors but I think Valdez and one of Wong/Hernandez will get a bit of burn. Wilyer Abreu is in the same category as Rafaela but less likely. He'll be starting next year in AAA too.
Ah right. Forgot about Valdez.
While Rafaela "could" see time, I don't think he'd be expected to be a productive player.
Wong looks fringy. Hernandez I hope gets a shot but also has some issues.

I know every prospect has issues... but when I say "realistic contributors" I guess I'm meaning prospects that are closer to expected starters for a long stretch- Casas (and Valdez) being the only two that I could see being on the 26 man roster next year on opening day and produce at least at replacement level.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But what is the value of these depth guys? Most won’t turn out to be productive big leaguers and they likely don’t have a ton of trade value, right? Years ago I remember hearing about all the depth in the system and a looming 40-man crunch and no one significant was lost. It’s better to have interesting prospects than not but a lot of these guys are really far from the bigs and become less interesting as they progress (or, don’t progress). Bloom needs to start cashing in on some (ideally, the right ones).

Looking at major and minor league talent, is there an AL East team that the Sox look better than?
 

E5 Yaz

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Rebuilding a farm system takes time, and you have to start from the bottom to get the pipeline flowing again.
Red Sox fans, predominantly, are not accustomed to exhibiting patience.
That's why we have these threads, over and over again.

Burma Shave
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Of course it takes time, and it also doesn’t always work. Certainly we all hope it does but until we see some talent on the roster (or other major league talent acquired via trades of drafted / acquired players), I think it’s premature to proclaim that Bloom has completely rebuilt the season or that the teams future is uniquely bright. It’s just too soon to know. Hell, Yorke has gone from reach pick to huge success to meh in a few years (and hopefully back again, soon). It’s all TBD.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ah right. Forgot about Valdez.
While Rafaela "could" see time, I don't think he'd be expected to be a productive player.
Wong looks fringy. Hernandez I hope gets a shot but also has some issues.

I know every prospect has issues... but when I say "realistic contributors" I guess I'm meaning prospects that are closer to expected starters for a long stretch- Casas (and Valdez) being the only two that I could see being on the 26 man roster next year on opening day and produce at least at replacement level.
I agree with Casas and Valdez but 2 expected starters for a long stretch is a pretty good turn out. Depending on how long the stretch is anyway. But given the teams issues, that's why I think 2023 is going to be about development. The positional players on the farm aren't quite there yet.

But what is the value of these depth guys? Most won’t turn out to be productive big leaguers and they likely don’t have a ton of trade value, right? Years ago I remember hearing about all the depth in the system and a looming 40-man crunch and no one significant was lost. It’s better to have interesting prospects than not but a lot of these guys are really far from the bigs and become less interesting as they progress (or, don’t progress). Bloom needs to start cashing in on some (ideally, the right ones).

Looking at major and minor league talent, is there an AL East team that the Sox look better than?
The value is in having even 1 of them turn into a productive big leaguer. Also, no one is arguing against losing any of these players. Having more chances is better than having less chances though, right? And if they keep restocking their chances, the more likely they hit on some.

You note they don't have a ton of value so what does cashing in on Brainer Bonaci and Blaze Jordan equal? If the Sox are a legit contender in 2023, maybe he can trade Brainer and Blaze for the equivalent of Christian Vazquez. Unless you are suggesting he cash in on the TOP players and not the depth guys.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Of course it takes time, and it also doesn’t always work. Certainly we all hope it does but until we see some talent on the roster (or other major league talent acquired via trades of drafted / acquired players), I think it’s premature to proclaim that Bloom has completely rebuilt the season or that the teams future is uniquely bright. It’s just too soon to know. Hell, Yorke has gone from reach pick to huge success to meh in a few years (and hopefully back again, soon). It’s all TBD.
So just wait and not discuss the farm system at all? Bloom has completely rebuilt (unless you are being 100% literal) the farm system. Whether that ends up being fruitful or not, we don't know. It's looking pretty good right now though. But I guess we shouldn't talk about it because it's just too soon to know. All TBD.

It may not work out but it looks like they are going to try it and find out.
 

chawson

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Ah right. Forgot about Valdez.
While Rafaela "could" see time, I don't think he'd be expected to be a productive player.
Wong looks fringy. Hernandez I hope gets a shot but also has some issues.

I know every prospect has issues... but when I say "realistic contributors" I guess I'm meaning prospects that are closer to expected starters for a long stretch- Casas (and Valdez) being the only two that I could see being on the 26 man roster next year on opening day and produce at least at replacement level.
I’m paraphrasing, but on a recent episode of their podcast the Sox Prospects guys projected Rafaela as an Alcides Escobar type hitter (low walks, low pop, .260ish hitter) who plays a plus center field.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I’m paraphrasing, but on a recent episode of their podcast the Sox Prospects guys projected Rafaela as an Alcides Escobar type hitter (low walks, low pop, .260ish hitter) who plays a plus center field.
Doesn't really match their scouting report or the stats. Alcides Escobar had a career .096 ISO in the minors and a career .087 ISO in the MLB. His best ISO in the minors was .111 as a 22 year old in the PCL (AAA).

Meanwhile, Rafaela's career ISO in the minors is .185. His career low ISO for a season is .108 which came as a 17 year old.
.108 ISO at 17
.168 ISO at 18
.173 ISO at 20
.250 ISO at 21.
Covid cancelled his age 19 season. His power has been on the rise for awhile now. His 2021 ended on a tear too: 47 games, 209 PA, .285/.323/.523, .311 BAbip. 25 xbh/8 HR. 9bb/37k.


I can kind of see the comparison if it was "Alcides Escobar with some pop." Escobar had 35 HR in 3373 PA in the minors. Rafaela has 36 HR in 1245 PA. 25 of those have come in his last 609 PA. I wonder if there is a reason they are so down on his power. Their scouting report says this. I haven't heard the podcast.
Sneaky raw power. Will show above-average power in batting practice to all fields. In-game power is more noticeable to the pull side. Potential average in-game power.
That doesn't sound like low pop. His season this year doesn't look low pop and it's a continuation of last year. Even if he's putting up power numbers similar to Duran this year (.147 ISO) and hits .260, that's something close to .260/.300/.407 with plus speed and plus defense in CF. That's a valuable player. Alcides was .258/.295/.345 in his MLB career.

Looking at their minor league slash lines, Escobar was at .292/.333/.388. Rafaela is at .272/.326/.457. Escobar also had a 4 year stretch where he put up 9.2 WAR. 8.0 oWAR, 5.2 dWAR. Don't know how that works but ok. That's a great outcome if they got a 4 year stretch of 9.2 WAR during Rafaela's 6 years of control. Give him a little more pop and it's gravy, actually.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Rafaela 2022
vs R: .318/.364/.550 in 344 PA. 43 xbh/15 HR. 18bb/68k.
vs L: .241/.268/.537 in 56 PA, 9 xbh/2HR, 1bb/22k.

Rafaela 2021
vs R: .248/.305/.376 in 353 PA. 25 xbh/6 HR, 21bb/61k.
vs L: .267/.304/.672 in 79 PA, 14 xbh/4 HR, 4bb/18k.

I guess the power vs R is a new thing.
18: .105 ISO vs R, .125 ISO vs L
19: .096 ISO vs R, .375 ISO vs L
20: .128 ISO vs R, .405 ISO vs L
21: .232 ISO vs R, .296 ISO vs L
 

Sin Duda

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Sox Prospects ranks each prospect with a Scouting scale from 2 to 8, 2 being a non-prospect and 8 being a Franchise player. They provide a likely(?) single grade and a range, e.g. Marcelo Meyer is likely a 5.5 (Above average regular), with a floor of 4 (Up and down player) and a ceiling of 7 (Regular all-star). It would be interesting to see how accurate those predictions have been. Anyone know how to acquire historical SoxProspects ratings? It would be interesting to see if the floor or the ceiling is hit more frequently. Casas is the only positional prospect they predict will be a regular contributor to the big club in 2023.
 

chawson

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Sox Prospects ranks each prospect with a Scouting scale from 2 to 8, 2 being a non-prospect and 8 being a Franchise player. They provide a likely(?) single grade and a range, e.g. Marcelo Meyer is likely a 5.5 (Above average regular), with a floor of 4 (Up and down player) and a ceiling of 7 (Regular all-star). It would be interesting to see how accurate those predictions have been. Anyone know how to acquire historical SoxProspects ratings? It would be interesting to see if the floor or the ceiling is hit more frequently. Casas is the only positional prospect they predict will be a regular contributor to the big club in 2023.
They were asked about this actually. Looks like they began that system only recently, so historical looks aren’t available.

View: https://twitter.com/spchrishatfield/status/1556260241506975744?s=21&t=yXFrT8biO6AOsPLNYYWvhw


It’d be an interesting project though to see how many MLB prospects FanGraphs rated, say, FV45 in 2016 ended up panning out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They were asked about this actually. Looks like they began that system only recently, so historical looks aren’t available.

View: https://twitter.com/spchrishatfield/status/1556260241506975744?s=21&t=yXFrT8biO6AOsPLNYYWvhw


It’d be an interesting project though to see how many MLB prospects FanGraphs rated, say, FV45 in 2016 ended up panning out.
I'm probably doing something wrong but here is 2017.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2017-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=scoutgrade|p|Hit|eq|45|45&pg=0
 

grimshaw

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But what is the value of these depth guys? Most won’t turn out to be productive big leaguers and they likely don’t have a ton of trade value, right? Years ago I remember hearing about all the depth in the system and a looming 40-man crunch and no one significant was lost. It’s better to have interesting prospects than not but a lot of these guys are really far from the bigs and become less interesting as they progress (or, don’t progress).
You need these guys in order to help develop and either package them for better guys, use them as up and down/emergency fellas, have fringe league minimum salary 26th men to get under the cap or simply to fill the ranks because someone needs to play down there. Otherwise you just have to keep amassing more and more guys and fellas.

In 2016 alone Fangraphs had future major leaguers Aaron Wilkerson, Henry Ramos, Tzu-Wei Lin, and Kyle Martin listed as "of note players" These are basically 35 FV guys considered as coin flips for cups for cups of coffee who ended up making it to the majors. Wilkerson at least was used to acquire a rapidly worsening but potentially helpful Aaron Hill and Lin became interesting when they were able to develop him into a brief stop gap.

If you move one step up to 40+ FV - the guys Bloom has been acquiring in mass quantities, you have Jalen Beeks who was moved for one Nate Eovaldi. Much less of note was Pat Light who was acquired for the ineffective Fernando Abad who was a roll of the dice to maybe pick up a win down the stretch.

These minor leaguers aren't just added to help the Red Sox, they help other teams' bottom tier farm systems or make cheap owners happy and therefore allow the Sox to get rentals or better.

This is a very impatient fan base as @E5 Yaz noted, but I have come to appreciate previous GM's a lot more (Dombrowski in particular) to at least keep the line moving when the high ups couldn't afford to wait any longer. You need to keep making these deals to have a sustainably competitive team. I like Bloom so much because this is just what the franchise needs and is similar to what Theo did when he came in, but ultimately what he ends up doing with this depth is what will keep him employed or not.
 
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nvalvo

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Oh, awesome. So here are the 13 2017 45 FVs listed, with their current age and service time, ranked by career fWAR:

Brandon Nimmo | 29, 5.042 service, 16.1 fWAR
Teoscar Hernandez | 29, 4.097, 10.4
Albert Almora, Jr. | 28, 4.135, 1.8
Daniel Vogelbach | 29, 3.138, 1.7
Andy Ibanez | 29, 0.122, 1.1
Jorge Bonifacio | 29, 2.054, 0.3
Tyler Wade | 27, 3.088, 0.1
Dustin Peterson | 27, 0.035, 0
Wuilmer Becerra | 27, 0, 0
Jake Bauers | 26, 2.100, -0.5
Matt Thaiss | 27, 0.162, -0.7
Alen Hanson | 29, 2.062, -0.8
Ryan O'Hearn | 29, 3.002, -1.3

So, summing up: all but one (Becerra) made the majors for at least a cup of coffee, 12/13 (92%). All but two (85%) were within 2 fWAR of replacement level, up or down. But 2 of 13 (15%) went on to be good big league regulars — Teo Hernández made an All Star team and won a couple Silver Sluggers.

Is there a reason that all these guys are position players?
 

chawson

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Is there a reason that all these guys are position players?
I may also be interpreting their system wrong, but I think there was an extra filter toggled in that data set somewhere (hit tool=45 FV). I removed it and am now seeing considerably more FV 45 guys among that 2017 list — 186 of them if I counted right.

I’m seeing this list here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2017-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&pg=6&pos=&team=

Quick scan, there are plenty of solid major leaguers, including as you said Teoscar and Nimmo, but also Jazz Chisholm Jr., Mitch Haniger, Yandy Diaz, Steven Brault, Dillon Cease, Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack, Luis Urias, Tyler Mahle, Eric Lauer, Chad Green, Mitch Garver, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Treviño, Trent Grisham, Will Smith the catcher, Gavin Lux, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, Keibert Ruiz, Dan Vogelbach, Dillon Tate, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Brandon Marsh, Jorge Lopez, Josh Lowe, Chad Pinder, Mitch White, Austin Barnes, Robert Stephenson, Ty Blach, Mauricio Dubon, Keegan Akin, Tomás Nido, Gilberto Celestino, Tyler Stephenson, Paul DeJong, Dane Dunning and Rhys Hoskins.

There are others among them who have seen major league time, and a few (like Nolan Jones) who are just now breaking in. But that’s a quick list of guys I count as “useful major leaguers” (with a broad range of values among them, surely). That list is 43 names out of 186, so roughly 23 percent.

Edit: In other words, we’d be lucky if three of Wikelman Gonzalez, Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold, Mikey Romero, Ronaldo Hernández, Brandon Walter, Gilberto Jimenez, Ceddanne Rafaela and Miguel Bleis had solid MLB careers.
 
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nvalvo

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxBooth/status/1557439568924016645


Huh. Big if true, I guess.

edit: and looking at Savant, he's 65th percentile for outfielder jump now. That feels like a big improvement. And, looking into it a bit deeper, the numbers suggest a improving reaction time and "burst" speed relative to last season, but... still very bad routes. That last part surprises none of us.

This is actually kind of optimistic to me. This dude certainly seems like a jackass, but he rebuilt his swing in the minors more than once, so maybe they can rebuild him as a defender. The tools are obvious.
 
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A Bad Man

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There is hope for the routes, I’d like to think, but the arm seems irreconcilably noodled. Damon is the obvious comp. If he starts hitting, that’s palatable. If not, unacceptable.

This is news to no one, of course. It simply speaks to how volatile his projection and thus the Sox CF future is at this point.
 

Cesar Crespo

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.This dude certainly seems like a jackass, but he rebuilt his swing in the minors more than once, so maybe they can rebuild him as a defender. The tools are obvious.
There's some stuff to "like" if one wanted to be optimistic. He has made year over year improvement. He's hitting for more power this year while also hitting more grounders. He's cut the K rate. He's not that far away from being a useful player if he can get his BB% closer to 8% and cut his K% closer to (preferably under) 25%. That's 2 more walks and 2.5 less K's every 100 PA.

2021: 3.6% BB%, 35.7% K%, 0.97 GB/FB, .319 BAbip, .121 ISO
2022: 6.1% BB%, 27.6% K%, 1.13 GB/FB, .313 BAbip, .161 ISO

If he managed to do the 2 things I was talking about, he'd be slashing .244/.320/.405 instead of .232/.287/.393. Maybe he'd be even better as he would benefit greatly by putting the ball in play more.

Having a weird August: .207/.281/.483 on a .191 BAbip, 2bb/6k in 32 PA. 4 xbh/2 HR.

They should have wasted the athleticism.
Probably but hindsight is 2020. They could have also done the split play thing and they didn't, which makes me think they weren't really high on him at 2b either.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Agreed. Thought it first it was just procedural. That reads as though they want him to play everyday for the WooSox and focus on specific areas
Yep, which I think is the right thing. Clearly the last few months haven’t really been working out; will be telling to see how he responds to this. If it’s not well, I suspect we don’t see him back in Boston. Hopefully he receives the message being sent here.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Agreed. Thought it first it was just procedural. That reads as though they want him to play everyday for the WooSox and focus on specific areas
Yeah. I think this is what they've wanted to do with him for weeks but needed his semi-warm body in the lineup due to various injuries. Now they've got the right combination of healthy players on the roster that they don't need Duran anymore. I see no reason to bring him back up again unless a) he starts mashing or b) injuries necessitate a recall.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They should try Duran at 2b again. Half kidding. I'm not sure what his path is to the majors. He isn't a good fielder and he doesn't get on base enough to use his speed. His power has not translated from the minors to the majors and he's 26 on September 5th. He either has to become an average defender in CF or the power needs to translate to the MLB.

I was never a fan of Duran's chances but I was trying to be optimistic. But without the power, there is nothing there. I wouldn't be shocked if Rafaela could hit as well as Duran. Like, now. Not in mid 2023. And he'd do it playing great defense. I'm not advocating for that at all because Rafaela needs some time in AAA but .220/.283/.365 with terrible D isn't exactly a high bar to clear.
 

YTF

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I agree with the consensus that the demotion is warranted and there is no need for Duran to reappear with the Sox this season other than injury. He clearly needs to work on defense and getting on base and if neither improves his baseball career should will be short. He clearly wasn't ready last year when there was an outcry for him to be promoted due to his great start in WOOstah. His time spent in the minors between then and his call up this season hasn't born much fruit. Right now he's not really worthy of being the last guy on the bench for a team that is at the bottom of the division.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree with the consensus that the demotion is warranted and there is no need for Duran to reappear with the Sox this season other than injury. He clearly needs to work on defense and getting on base and if neither improves his baseball career should will be short. He clearly wasn't ready last year when there was an outcry for him to be promoted due to his great start in WOOstah. His time spent in the minors between then and his call up this season hasn't born much fruit. Right now he's not really worthy of being the last guy on the bench for a team that is at the bottom of the division.
He's hitting .305/.379/.531 at AAA in 198 PA this year. He hit for power on the road as well. If that's not bearing fruit, what is?

Total time in AAA: .278/.366/.523 in 481 PA. 51 xbh/22 HR. 50bb/114k.
Total time in MLB: .218/.269/.355 in 331 PA, 27 xbh/5 HR. 18bb/103k.

Looking like a AAAA player.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Honest question… why can’t he do these exact things in ML?
I’m not sure how I feel about him but he’s definitely unrefined- I just don’t see more time in AAA helping his defense or patience
 

Cesar Crespo

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Honest question… why can’t he do these exact things in ML?
I’m not sure how I feel about him but he’s definitely unrefined- I just don’t see more time in AAA helping his defense or patience
He can. They just needed the roster spot and Duran isn't really worth feeding PA to. He has no track record of success at the MLB level. Doesn't hit for power, strikes out 30% of time, plays terrible D. 26 in September. What is the upside? He's Dalbec/Cordero without the power.
 

Just a bit outside

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Duran is one of those million dollar athletes with a 10 cent head. He seems to have been able to get by on athletic ability at AAA but it isn’t working in the majors. His bat speed just doesn’t appear to be enough at the MLB level and he has terrible instincts in the field and on the bases which negates his speed. His baseball IQ will not improve enough with more time at AAA to make up for his flaws. I hope I am wrong.
 

BravesField

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Honest question… why can’t he do these exact things in ML?
I’m not sure how I feel about him but he’s definitely unrefined- I just don’t see more time in AAA helping his defense or patience
I really don't understand comments like this. If you think being sent to AAA can't help him, then why don't you just say DFA him?

It sucks that he has not had the success that we all want for him, but I don't think its time to give up after only 307 at bats in the big league.
 

YTF

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He's hitting .305/.379/.531 at AAA in 198 PA this year. He hit for power on the road as well. If that's not bearing fruit, what is?

Total time in AAA: .278/.366/.523 in 481 PA. 51 xbh/22 HR. 50bb/114k.
Total time in MLB: .218/.269/.355 in 331 PA, 27 xbh/5 HR. 18bb/103k.

Looking like a AAAA player.
The time spent in WOOstah has not born fruit at the MLB level.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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From Ian Browne on MLB.com:

Red Sox manager Alex Cora thinks the move back to the Minors will be beneficial for the 25-year-old Duran.

“He needs to play. He needs to go down to play. There’s a few things he needs to do better offensively. I think he understands that,” said Cora.

Duran did make improvements defensively in recent weeks, which Cora made note of.

“Defensively, his jumps were a lot better. Decision-making was OK, but at least we accomplished something that we wanted going into Spring Training,” said Cora. “Right now, as far as the jumps and routes [are concerned], we feel very comfortable with him.”

It looked like Duran was going to have a solid season offensively, when he put up a line of .333/.385/.479 in 12 games in June.
But since July 1, Duran is slashing .182/.247/.318 with 52 strikeouts in 148 at-bats.

“We talked a little bit yesterday,” said Cora. “He did a few things bunting-wise while he was here. That should be a part of his game. Just keep going. He’s a part of this -- and at one point, he’s going to be back and we believe he’s going to contribute.”

What type of player does Cora envision Duran being?

“On-base percentage guy that can steal 30 bags at this level,” Cora said. “He can hit for power, but it’s not who he is. I think everybody here got caught up in him hitting the ball in the air in ’19 or ’20, whatever it was, and that’s not who he is. I don’t envision him hitting 30 home runs at the big league level. I envision him stealing 30 bags at this level, and that’s a lot. People don’t run anymore. That’s the player we envision and he knows it.

“To do that, the on-base skills have to be better. Control the strike zone, work counts, go the other way. We’re not taking away trying to do damage in the zone, but there are certain at-bats that he can go the other way. We know that. He’s done it in the past. He did it a few times here. I’m excited about it. Just go down there and play. It’s not about hitting .390 or .400 in Triple-A the rest of the season. It’s about doing the things that are going to help him to become a big leaguer.”

-----

I bolded the "control the strike zone, work counts, go the other way" part because when I see Duran at the plate I see a lot of swinging and missing at pitches on the outside corner (and outside the zone) or rolling over ground balls to second base. Both of those traits are indications of a guy trying to pull rather than going the other way with pitches. Hopefully he'll work on that in Worcester and can come back a useful player.
 

Jimbodandy

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I really don't understand comments like this. If you think being sent to AAA can't help him, then why don't you just say DFA him?

It sucks that he has not had the success that we all want for him, but I don't think its time to give up after only 307 at bats in the big league.
I do not think that the post that you quoted or anything that Crespo has written implies that anyone is "giving up" on Duran. Guys sometimes figure it out, and he's not sinking the roster with cost or taking a slot unnecessary (because he can be sent down). What you're reading is bearish speculation on Duran based on his track record, which right now is "AAAA player". Doesn't mean that anyone thinks that he can't do it. Some folks just don't think that it's likely that he will.
 

OCD SS

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The time spent in WOOstah has not born fruit at the MLB level.
Again, in 331 PA split over 2 seasons.

Setting aside Durran’s knuckleheaded tendencies (and with the caveat that I don't have a problem with him going down in these circumstances), at what point is a prospect able to come up to Boston and not need more “seasoning in triple-A” when they struggle? The divide between MLB & AAA has gotten larger (witness Spencer Torkelson) and if the team is going to have any hope of integrating young, cost controlled players into the lineup we’re going to have to live with their stuggles for longer.
 

Daniel_Son

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“He can hit for power, but it’s not who he is. I think everybody here got caught up in him hitting the ball in the air in ’19 or ’20, whatever it was, and that’s not who he is."
That seems to be an indictment of the team's player development staff in the minors, no? Certainly aligns with the shitty plate discipline we've seen for the last few years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That seems to be an indictment of the team's player development staff in the minors, no? Certainly aligns with the shitty plate discipline we've seen for the last few years.
He changed his swing on his own knowing he needed to add power to his game. He went to his dad for help.
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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I do not think that the post that you quoted or anything that Crespo has written implies that anyone is "giving up" on Duran. Guys sometimes figure it out, and he's not sinking the roster with cost or taking a slot unnecessary (because he can be sent down). What you're reading is bearish speculation on Duran based on his track record, which right now is "AAAA player". Doesn't mean that anyone thinks that he can't do it. Some folks just don't think that it's likely that he will.
No my friend...please see post 783 and 786
 

Daniel_Son

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Wasn't it his father's advice to bulk up and hit the ball I'm the air?
He changed his swing on his own knowing he needed to add power to his game. He went to his dad for help.
Whoops. My bad. Link for anyone interested: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/.

That's pretty bad advice though. Nothing wrong with being a speedy contact hitter and setting the table for the power hitters in the lineup. Having a .350-.380 OBP type guy at the top of your lineup would've been really valuable this year. I get that it's tough for prospects to stand out, but man, it really seems like that might've messed up his career trajectory, doesn't it?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Whoops. My bad. Link for anyone interested: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/.

That's pretty bad advice though. Nothing wrong with being a speedy contact hitter and setting the table for the power hitters in the lineup. Having a .350-.380 OBP type guy at the top of your lineup would've been really valuable this year. I get that it's tough for prospects to stand out, but man, it really seems like that might've messed up his career trajectory, doesn't it?
He had no future as an MLB player if he didn't add power to his game. Look at his 2019 season in AA. That's what you'd be looking at. He was a complete noodle bat going nowhere. His entire early minor league success was based on BAbips north of .400 and beating everything out with speed. He was going to struggle as he moved up, and he did. So he changed his approach.

So, it was actually great advice that turned him from AA fodder to MLB player.

edit: He was never an OBP guy. He was a guy who had high OBP because he was hitting .350+
 

Jimbodandy

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No my friend...please see post 783 and 786
786 is your post, quoting 783.

In 783, the text is "I just don’t see more time in AAA helping his defense or patience".

And frankly, I agree with 783. I don't think that it is likely that Duran meaningfully improves. That doesn't mean that he won't for sure. This is all speculation.

Nobody is "giving up" on Duran. Thinking that he's not a prospect doesn't mean that anyone is ready to DFA and move on. One can think that the bloom is off the rose for Jaren Duran without advocating for his release or trade.
 

Rovin Romine

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That seems to be an indictment of the team's player development staff in the minors, no? Certainly aligns with the shitty plate discipline we've seen for the last few years.
Everything about Duran is an indictment of the development staff in the minors. Just look upthread to the first step issue (Aug 10.).

Beyond that, why did he think he needed to retool his swing on his own? I mean, if the team had wanted a high OBP defensive OF with the ability to steal bases. . .that seems not to have been communicated to him.

OTOH, if the team wanted him to develop power. . .why not work on that with him?

I'm sure there's some ass-covering on the part of the ML staff, the MiL staff, and the player himself. . .but honestly, it seems like this is far more on the club, even accounting for the incidents of chuckleheadedness Duran has shown us.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Everything about Duran is an indictment of the development staff in the minors. Just look upthread to the first step issue (Aug 10.).

Beyond that, why did he think he needed to retool his swing on his own? I mean, if the team had wanted a high OBP defensive OF with the ability to steal bases. . .that seems not to have been communicated to him.

OTOH, if the team wanted him to develop power. . .why not work on that with him?

I'm sure there's some ass-covering on the part of the ML staff, the MiL staff, and the player himself. . .but honestly, it seems like this is far more on the club, even accounting for the incidents of chuckleheadedness Duran has shown us.
Probably because he hit .250/.310/.325 in 352 PA at Portland in 2019 and everyone in the world was like "yeah, he's not going anywhere without any power."

Are people familiar with Jarren Duran's minor league track record? I'm guessing no if people are seriously asking why he felt the need to retool his swing.

In 2018, he had a .421 BAbip, 6.5% BB%, 15.5% K% and a .159 IS0 as a 21 year on in Rookie League and A ball.
In 2019, he had a .480 BAbip, 10.2% BB%, 19.5% K% and a .156 ISO as a 22 year old in A+.
In 2019, he had a .335 BAbip, 6.5% BB%, 23.9% K%, and a .075 IS0 as a 22 year old in AA.

It was completely predictable that Duran would completely wash out without revamping his game.

In 2021, he had a .288 BAbip, 10.6% BB%, 23.3% K and a .258 ISO. He went from being written off to a top 100 prospect.

And even if the team told him theh wanted a high OBP, defensive OF who steals bases, it doesn't mean he can just do all that stuff. It would be great if it were as easy as "Hey Jarren, get on base 38% of the time and play GG defense. Also, steal 50 bases." But alas, it is not.

Maybe Jarren Duran isn't good and is one in a very long line of failed prospects.