Jarren Duran: Sunshine In His Eyes Can Make Us Cry

SoxInTheMist

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I was coming into this thread to write about how different Duran has looked this year compared to last. I was going to say how much more confident and aggressive and fun he seems. Alas...
 

mauf

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Another mod fired the trolling lurker into the sun. It’s time for the rest of us to move on.

Since this is a baseball forum, posts here should be primarily about baseball. Duran’s decision not to get vaccinated affects the team, and potentially his career; those subjects are fair game for discussion here (though I’d note that a few recent posts in this vein lacked substance). Other COVID-related discussion belongs elsewhere.
 

YTF

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I know a shit ton of people who have gotten covid. The only ones who weren't were hospitalize or didn't died were not vaxxed.
Triple negatives in that sentence. Stated positively, what happened to the “shit ton of people who have gotten Covid”!who you know?
There are times when one shouldn't hit "post reply" before proof reading. This was one of those times. Cleaned things up a bit, but left the original mess visible for ridicule.
 

YTF

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I was coming into this thread to write about how different Duran has looked this year compared to last. I was going to say how much more confident and aggressive and fun he seems. Alas...
He's worlds different from where he was last season. The additional time spent in AAA seems to have benefitted him greatly in allowing him to mature (in a baseball sense) and gain a better understanding of the type of player he has a chance to be. That early power display last season didn't translate vs MLB pitching and he struggled. His baserunning was questionable as was outfield play. SSS, but I think he looks a little better in the OF so far this year. Also. it looks like Kike's rehab has been shut down for a while so hopefully RFsnyder continues to contribute as we may see him leading off in Toronto.
 

OnTheBlack

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The discussion on his vaccination stance has been a very interesting insight on the rooting of laundry vs. player wearing it. I agree with the stance he’s a dumbass - but he ain’t the first. I reckon there are a few Red Sox legends who might be on the anti-vax side of the equation if they played today. 04 probably had a few guys that fit that mold. I’d bet my mortgage Beckett isn’t vaccinated. Does that change our warm memories? Interesting question IMO.
 

joe dokes

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What do you think the odds are that Ryan Fitzgerald has been feeding him anti-vax articles, figuring there's an outside chance it'll get him a shot (pun intended) in the Bigs?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/06/22/sports/unvaccinated-jarren-duran-red-sox-upcoming-trip-toronto-will-be-lost-opportunity/

Versatile Triple-A prospect Ryan Fitzgerald — a former indie leaguer who has clawed his way to Triple-A Worcester, where his performance has him on the brink of the big leagues — likewise would not be a candidate to join the Sox in Canada because he remains unvaccinated
 

Rovin Romine

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I'm deducing the Sox team didn't bring in a MD with a bag of shots, paired with the sobbing widow and orphan of someone who died young from COVID, and a second dude with chronic lung problems. Or just Eduardo Rodriguez.

Then line everyone up publicly and get 'em jabbed in the arm, WWII basic-training style. Public, not hand-holding private. No force, just heavy and public moral and peer suasion.

I'm kind of stunned they didn't do it as soon as the vaccine came out.

And the failure to do that (or the equivalent) is starting to look like an organization-wide failure of messaging and personnel management.
 

jezza1918

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I'm deducing the Sox team didn't bring in a MD with a bag of shots, paired with the sobbing widow and orphan of someone who died young from COVID, and a second dude with chronic lung problems. Or just Eduardo Rodriguez.

Then line everyone up publicly and get 'em jabbed in the arm, WWII basic-training style. Public, not hand-holding private. No force, just heavy and public moral and peer suasion.

I'm kind of stunned they didn't do it as soon as the vaccine came out.

And the failure to do that (or the equivalent) is starting to look like an organization-wide failure of messaging and personnel management.
From Speier's Globe article focusing on Duran yesterday, there is this quote from Fitzgerald: “'If I miss my [big league] shot because of that, it is what it is,' Fitzgerald said recently. 'I’m not going to think twice about it.'” Fitzgerald is a guy who somehow worked his way up from the Independent Leagues, grinded through Low A, A+ and AA, now on brink of being called up. I don't know enough about the day to day per diems and salaries of minor leagues anymore, but I think it's fair to say the financial ramifications for a call up for him would be somewhat life changing. And he still wont get vaccinated. Leaving my own opinions (and trying to avoid any V&N-ing) aside, with a mentality like that I just don't see what more the Red Sox organization could've done to change minds. Or, I guess, I'll agree they could've done more...but per that Fitzgerald quote I just don't think it would've done any good.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Are there any organizations that strong armed their players into getting vaccinated? It seems like no one, from management to coaches, is applying any pressure on those who have made the choice not to get vaccinated, and I have to imagine that’s not an accident. They could have worked to mandate the vaccine as part of the CBA, right? What is the union’s position here?

Every player is free to make their own choice and suffer the consequences as a result, but from a team perspective- it’s disappointing that so many have made a decision that is in the extreme minority of their teammates and one that makes it more difficult for the team to accomplish their goals. Are the guys that won’t even do this the ones you want to count on, and for a lack of a better term, go to war with?
 

mauf

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The various projections on Fangraphs think Duran and Refsnyder are similar hitters — both are expected to settle in the low 700s OPS-wise with regular playing time. Refsnyder is the better fielder of the two. Duran obviously has more upside.

Duran’s vaccination status takes what was a tricky present-versus-future conundrum and turns it into an easy decision. Refsnyder won’t continue to hit as well as he has to date, but if he’s hitting passably, he should get the reps over Duran. Not being worried about Refsnyder’s development is an added bonus — if Verdugo/Hernandez/Bradley are all healthy and Cordero is hitting well, there’s no trouble using Refsnyder as bench depth.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Seriously implications for playoffs in Toronto with both Houck and Duran. Those two could expect to play multiple games there! Sale could be scheduled around. Bloom has to seriously consider a NL trade partner…. A package of those two should bring a significant player.

edit- normally I’d joke (PLAYOFFS?!?!?) but this should be addressed soon.

2nd edit- as in A Good Starter that would allow Whitlock to be a closer???
 

chawson

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I fully expect Duran to be traded next month. He’s looked really good at the plate these past 10 games, and I hope it’s restored some of the stock he lost during last year’s call up. I think after the emergence of Cordero and Ceddanne Rafaela, who needs 40-man protection this offseason, Duran looks pretty expendable. I’d prefer a make-good one-year deal for Kiké in 2023 and hand CF to Rafaela in 2024 over playing Duran there.

As for the jab — the Sox can work around a pitcher like Houck being unvaccinated (I guess), but you can’t work around a starting outfielder who is never available to play on the road against one of your biggest division rivals. The Sox need to make a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deal soon to ease the 40-man crunch, and I expect Duran will be part of that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I fully expect Duran to be traded next month. He’s looked really good at the plate these past 10 games, and I hope it’s restored some of the stock he lost during last year’s call up. I think after the emergence of Cordero and Ceddanne Rafaela, who needs 40-man protection this offseason, Duran looks pretty expendable. I’d prefer a make-good one-year deal for Kiké in 2023 and hand CF to Rafaela in 2024 over playing Duran there.

As for the jab — the Sox can work around a pitcher like Houck being unvaccinated (I guess), but you can’t work around a starting outfielder who is never available to play on the road against one of your biggest division rivals. The Sox need to make a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deal soon to ease the 40-man crunch, and I expect Duran will be part of that.
If Houck is the closer… then you can’t work around it. Or shouldn’t
 

chawson

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If Houck is the closer… then you can’t work around it. Or shouldn’t
I agree.

Unless something changes, unvaccinated players are considerably less valuable for the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays more than any other team in baseball. (Orioles too once they get a winning record.) Purely from that perspective, it’s an inefficiency I’d figure would be corrected.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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I fully expect Duran to be traded next month. He’s looked really good at the plate these past 10 games, and I hope it’s restored some of the stock he lost during last year’s call up. I think after the emergence of Cordero and Ceddanne Rafaela, who needs 40-man protection this offseason, Duran looks pretty expendable. I’d prefer a make-good one-year deal for Kiké in 2023 and hand CF to Rafaela in 2024 over playing Duran there.

As for the jab — the Sox can work around a pitcher like Houck being unvaccinated (I guess), but you can’t work around a starting outfielder who is never available to play on the road against one of your biggest division rivals. The Sox need to make a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deal soon to ease the 40-man crunch, and I expect Duran will be part of that.
Franchy’s underlying stats are encouraging, but he’s still got a 0.0 WAR and a 227/302/379.Next years OF currently has Verdugo and Franchy and Duran, he doesn’t look expendable to me at all. Rafaela is interesting but certainly can’t count on him for a big role next year, can you?

Easing the 40-man roster crunch (which is always a big fear around here but usually doesn’t result in losing anyone all that valuable) can even accomplished by moving Downs, Groome, Dalbec, one of the catchers, and a bunch of the fungible relievers, IMO.
 

cornwalls@6

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It's been noted before, but the margin of error to gain one of the wildcards is likely going to be very slim. If they get swept or lose series up there, and those losses can be attributed to not being able to field their best possible lineups, then the dunder-shits who caused that deserve an avalanche of scorn and criticism from fans and media. And do not deserve a future with this organization. Let them do their research elsewhere.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's been noted before, but the margin of error to gain one of the wildcards is likely going to be very slim. If they get swept or lose series up there, and those losses can be attributed to not being able to field their best possible lineups, then the dunder-shits who caused that deserve an avalanche of scorn and criticism from fans and media. And do not deserve a future with this organization. Let them do their research elsewhere.
Absolutely. As players, I’m very bullish on Houck and have become convinced that Duran is for real. That said…. I’m done with them. A NL team will gladly take them and likely part with some significant value.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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If he never makes the major leagues, I bet he'll think about it a lot as he gets older.
Or he’ll just add it to the list of why the world sucks and be that much more bitter.

I’d love to know the results of these guys’ research into the risks of ibuprofen, or chicken raised with growth hormones, or any of the million other risks of modern day life that they readily accept. F’n idiots.

It’s just amazing to see these athletes put so much into finding every competitive edge needed to succeed only to stop themselves and fall on this sword.
 

BringBackMo

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I fully expect Duran to be traded next month. He’s looked really good at the plate these past 10 games, and I hope it’s restored some of the stock he lost during last year’s call up.
I doubt they trade Duran, though I wouldn't necessarily oppose it. He's clearly a moron, but he has done the work to remake himself, more than once now, as a prospect. He showed up in pro ball as a burner with little power who put up insane numbers in the low minors by putting the ball on the ground and beating out hits. When that proved unworkable against the advanced pitching and defenses in the high minors, he reworked his approached and began demonstrating lots of in-game power. When that proved unworkable against the even more advanced pitching in the majors, he went back to the minors and appears to have remade his approach yet again. Right now he looks pretty comfortable as a gap hitter with good line-drive power and insane speed. His defense remains below average, and it's hard to see him sticking long term in CF, or RF in Fenway, which does reduce his value. But he has proven himself both talented and humble enough to change his approach as needed. I think the Sox will see value in that combination of talent and makeup and hold onto Duran to see whether it all pans out longer term.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I doubt they trade Duran, though I wouldn't necessarily oppose it. He's clearly a moron, but he has done the work to remake himself, more than once now, as a prospect. He showed up in pro ball as a burner with little power who put up insane numbers in the low minors by putting the ball on the ground and beating out hits. When that proved unworkable against the advanced pitching and defenses in the high minors, he reworked his approached and began demonstrating lots of in-game power. When that proved unworkable against the even more advanced pitching in the majors, he went back to the minors and appears to have remade his approach yet again. Right now he looks pretty comfortable as a gap hitter with good line-drive power and insane speed. His defense remains below average, and it's hard to see him sticking long term in CF, or RF in Fenway, which does reduce his value. But he has proven himself both talented and humble enough to change his approach as needed. I think the Sox will see value in that combination of talent and makeup and hold onto Duran to see whether it all pans out longer term.
Sorry to belabor the point, but the issue isn't really this any longer. I agree with you that he's looking like "a keeper" and one that will provide financial flexibility to help keep Devers, X, etc... while adding other potential higher priced FA's. The issue here is that as an every day player (which even Houck has to be considered as a "closer") they may not be available for 2...3... even possibly 4 games in Toronto in a playoff series. That's crazy. It's a major handicap to the team and needs to be addressed. The two of them together could likely be packaged with some mL talent (Groome) and Dalbec to bring in a great BP arm to replace Houck and adequate ML players to step in and help.
 

BringBackMo

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Sorry to belabor the point, but the issue isn't really this any longer. I agree with you that he's looking like "a keeper" and one that will provide financial flexibility to help keep Devers, X, etc... while adding other potential higher priced FA's. The issue here is that as an every day player (which even Houck has to be considered as a "closer") they may not be available for 2...3... even possibly 4 games in Toronto in a playoff series. That's crazy. It's a major handicap to the team and needs to be addressed. The two of them together could likely be packaged with some mL talent (Groome) and Dalbec to bring in a great BP arm to replace Houck and adequate ML players to step in and help.
I personally have a very low opinion of anti-vaxxers. But there is no way the Sox are moving on from several years of control of a potentially useful player just because he wouldn't be available for away games in one postseason series against a team that they might not even face. If Jarren Duran gets traded, that will not be the reason.
 

chawson

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I doubt they trade Duran, though I wouldn't necessarily oppose it. He's clearly a moron, but he has done the work to remake himself, more than once now, as a prospect. He showed up in pro ball as a burner with little power who put up insane numbers in the low minors by putting the ball on the ground and beating out hits. When that proved unworkable against the advanced pitching and defenses in the high minors, he reworked his approached and began demonstrating lots of in-game power. When that proved unworkable against the even more advanced pitching in the majors, he went back to the minors and appears to have remade his approach yet again. Right now he looks pretty comfortable as a gap hitter with good line-drive power and insane speed. His defense remains below average, and it's hard to see him sticking long term in CF, or RF in Fenway, which does reduce his value. But he has proven himself both talented and humble enough to change his approach as needed. I think the Sox will see value in that combination of talent and makeup and hold onto Duran to see whether it all pans out longer term.
These are all good points, and you may be right. I just think the offensive and defensive profile is worth more to another team than the Sox. In a way, I see Duran’s upside as a Carl Crawford-type but without the (Tampa-era) defense, except we already have our own cost-controlled Brett Gardner in left field.

Duran should probably play in a park that doesn’t have a deep right field fence. The Sox should probably have a bigger bat in left field, or a guy with a better arm. The Sox should probably not have a player who misses 7 regular season games a year against a team they’re likely to battle tooth and nail for a playoff spot. There’s a lot about Duran that suggests he’d be a good major league, but the road may be tougher in Boston. I don’t think Rick Porcello would have won a Cy Young playing for the Colorado Rockies.
 

BringBackMo

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These are all good points, and you may be right. I just think the offensive and defensive profile is worth more to another team than the Sox. In a way, I see Duran’s upside as a Carl Crawford-type but without the (Tampa-era) defense, except we already have our own cost-controlled Brett Gardner in left field.

Duran should probably play in a park that doesn’t have a deep right field fence. The Sox should probably have a bigger bat in left field, or a guy with a better arm. The Sox should probably not have a player who misses 7 regular season games a year against a team they’re likely to battle tooth and nail for a playoff spot. There’s a lot about Duran that suggests he’d be a good major league, but the road may be tougher in Boston. I don’t think Rick Porcello would have won a Cy Young playing for the Colorado Rockies.
I'd be OK with two Brett Gardners. What would you be looking for in a return? I honestly have no idea how Duran is viewed by other teams.
 

grimshaw

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Aside from Duran, here are the list of outfielders under control for 2023:

Franchy
Verdugo
Arroyo
Refsnyder
JBJ has a mutual option.

Not a motley crew unless statcast starts translating to immediate success.

There is no way they are trading Duran (unless outfielders come back I guess). Unless they are irresponsible, they have known for a few years that he is unwilling to be vaccinated and kept him anyhow.
 
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mauf

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These are all good points, and you may be right. I just think the offensive and defensive profile is worth more to another team than the Sox. In a way, I see Duran’s upside as a Carl Crawford-type but without the (Tampa-era) defense, except we already have our own cost-controlled Brett Gardner in left field.

Duran should probably play in a park that doesn’t have a deep right field fence. The Sox should probably have a bigger bat in left field, or a guy with a better arm. The Sox should probably not have a player who misses 7 regular season games a year against a team they’re likely to battle tooth and nail for a playoff spot. There’s a lot about Duran that suggests he’d be a good major league, but the road may be tougher in Boston. I don’t think Rick Porcello would have won a Cy Young playing for the Colorado Rockies.
When a team shops a prospect or young player, other teams take notice and wonder what’s wrong with the guy. You never get full value in that sort of situation. So unless the FO had strong reservations about Duran before, I don’t think his vaccine status should prompt them to move on.

That said, the FO may in fact have those reservations — they haven’t seemed bullish on him for a while. So maybe this will be the last straw.
 

Pandemonium67

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The other thing about the vaccine is that there's at least a reasonable chance that Canada's entry restrictions won't last beyond this season. So, yeah, for 2022 the lack of vax is a thorn, but in the long-term picture probably less so.
 

Niastri

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The other thing about the vaccine is that there's at least a reasonable chance that Canada's entry restrictions won't last beyond this season. So, yeah, for 2022 the lack of vax is a thorn, but in the long-term picture probably less so.
This is a thought I keep having... As the lethality (decreased) and omnipresence (almost there) of Covid begins to match that of the flu and other diseases we "live with," Canada is going to decide allowing unvaccinated is something they'll have to live with too.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Absolutely. As players, I’m very bullish on Houck and have become convinced that Duran is for real. That said…. I’m done with them. A NL team will gladly take them and likely part with some significant value.
Next year won't everyone play everyone else the same amount of times? I might be mistaken bur I read around the time of the labor agreement that starting in 2023 the unbalanced schedules were being done away with so that should conceivably broaden the list of suitors for the players. Of course sooner or later Canada will probably change the the rules for entering the country.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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The schedules will be more balanced. I can't see them ever going back to a completely balanced schedule. I don't think the union has ever wanted it because they prefer less travel (and fans who complain that the schedule should be balanced tend to overlook that it means more games with a three hour time difference between their start time and their fan base). It would also lead to weak divisional champions with losing records, unless they also agree to get rid of the divisional format. The one time we had a balanced schedule and six divisions (1994) the AL West would have sent a team nowhere close to .500 to the playoffs if there had been playoffs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Next year won't everyone play everyone else the same amount of times? I might be mistaken bur I read around the time of the labor agreement that starting in 2023 the unbalanced schedules were being done away with so that should conceivably broaden the list of suitors for the players. Of course sooner or later Canada will probably change the the rules for entering the country.
Not quite. Each team will play all 29 other teams (unlike now where it's selective interleague games). But teams will still play their divisional foes more often than other teams.

It will be:
14 games against divisional opponents (7 home, 7 away)
6 games against league opponents (3 home, 3 away)
4 games against interleague "rival" (2 home, 2 away)
3 games against every other team in opposing league (half home, half away, switching each year)

So starting next year, eight NL teams will visit Toronto instead of three, plus all 14 AL teams.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Not quite. Each team will play all 29 other teams (unlike now where it's selective interleague games). But teams will still play their divisional foes more often than other teams.

It will be:
14 games against divisional opponents (7 home, 7 away)
6 games against league opponents (3 home, 3 away)
4 games against interleague "rival" (2 home, 2 away)
3 games against every other team in opposing league (half home, half away, switching each year)

So starting next year, eight NL teams will visit Toronto instead of three, plus all 14 AL teams.
Sorry if this is too V and N ish but could any of our Canadian posters comment on how likely it is that Canada changes its policy and allows unvaccinated athletes into the country? Would it happen by the end of the season? This might have an effect on Duran's or Houck's trade value if teams think that the restrictions might be lifted
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sorry if this is too V and N ish but could any of our Canadian posters comment on how likely it is that Canada changes its policy and allows unvaccinated athletes into the country? Would it happen by the end of the season? This might have an effect on Duran's or Houck's trade value if teams think that the restrictions might be lifted
If we're assuming that the Sox want to trade them because of their vax status, wouldn't it stand to reason that they wouldn't want to trade them if there was a good chance Canada would change its policy before the end of the season (or even before next season)? Basically what I'm saying is that I don't think any teams have an inside line on what Canada might do, and therefore it isn't a factor at all in the trade-ability of any player.