Jarren Duran: Improving in His Second Shot

moondog80

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If we're assuming that the Sox want to trade them because of their vax status, wouldn't it stand to reason that they wouldn't want to trade them if there was a good chance Canada would change its policy before the end of the season (or even before next season)? Basically what I'm saying is that I don't think any teams have an inside line on what Canada might do, and therefore it isn't a factor at all in the trade-ability of any player.
Teams that don't go to Toronto would be less likely to change their valuation based on vax status?
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Next year won't everyone play everyone else the same amount of times? I might be mistaken bur I read around the time of the labor agreement that starting in 2023 the unbalanced schedules were being done away with so that should conceivably broaden the list of suitors for the players. Of course sooner or later Canada will probably change the the rules for entering the country.
That depends on the risk they assign to it. If they decide COVID 19, its variants, and its credibly possible variants down the line are akin to the seasonal "flu," that would make sense. If they see it as more of a smallpox or something with the potential to shut down the country again, they would be less motivated to revise the rules.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Franchy’s underlying stats are encouraging, but he’s still got a 0.0 WAR and a 227/302/379.Next years OF currently has Verdugo and Franchy and Duran, he doesn’t look expendable to me at all. Rafaela is interesting but certainly can’t count on him for a big role next year, can you?
It seems the bolded question has gone unanswered. One thought: If he keeps doing what he's doing he's basically following Mookie's final pace -- A+ and AA one year, a half year of AAA, then called up. So, count on him? Probably not, since it would be insane to expect him to continue this high level production for the rest of this season at AA and half of next year at AAA. But I think he's got a shot.
 

Niastri

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Rafaela seems to have risen too fast... Most of the guys with similar trajectories come from college and thus are both older and more experienced than Rafaela.

And there are only so many Mookie Betts types per generation.

I think it's unlikely he gets a call up next year, maybe a September sip of coffee.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Sorry if this is too V and N ish but could any of our Canadian posters comment on how likely it is that Canada changes its policy and allows unvaccinated athletes into the country? Would it happen by the end of the season? This might have an effect on Duran's or Houck's trade value if teams think that the restrictions might be lifted
I actually texted a good friend relatively high up in Trudeau's government to ask him this very question! His response was "unvaccinated people need to get vaccinated".

He's a cheeky guy (and a spokesperson for the gov't) so I doubt he'd show his cards. But he's right, regardless.

Anyway, Duran is good at baseball and I wish he'd just get his jabs because I like when the Red Sox are good and have good players.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It seems the bolded question has gone unanswered. One thought: If he keeps doing what he's doing he's basically following Mookie's final pace -- A+ and AA one year, a half year of AAA, then called up. So, count on him? Probably not, since it would be insane to expect him to continue this high level production for the rest of this season at AA and half of next year at AAA. But I think he's got a shot.
Yeah. I think the Sox are somewhat aggressive so an ETA of mid 2023 for Rafaela isn't out of the question. Though the FO is different.

Xander had the same career path once he hit A+. Half a year at A+/AA. Then next year, he starts at AA and ends in Boston. Benintendi as well, though Benintendi spend 1/3 of a year in A+, about half a year in AA, never played AAA and went right to Boston.

Those 3 players were much higher ranked than Rafaela (kinda). Betts was never officially ranked once the 2014 season started. The debate after 2013 was whether he should be ranked higher than Garin Cecchini and if his power was a mirage. The hope was he'd turn into Tony Phillips. Then 2014 happened. His mid season rankings in 2014 are top 5, but they are not official.

I think even if Rafaela keeps it up all year, the highest we'll see him rated is like 50-60. If he gets off to a great start next year, that's when he enters Betts/Bogaerts/Benny territory, and probably finds himself in Boston by August 2023. Blake Swihart also ranked pretty highly but was always a notch below those 3. With hindsight, I think Blake was incredibly overrated. I'd put Mayer and Casas a notch behind the 3 B's too, though I think they deserve their rankings unlike Swihart.

Betts made it to the Majors at 21, Xander at 20. Benny at 21. Rafaela is already 21 and turns 22 in September. The person I'm quoting didn't use the term, but I don't think Rafaela would have to be a generational talent to crack the lineup next year anyway.

Rafaela's big red flag is the 12bb/60k in 273 PA. The strikeouts aren't actually a problem but unless he's going to be a .300 hitter, he's going to struggle to get on base. I'm also guessing his ISO isn't going to be close to .300, but the fact it's close to .300 right now after 270 PA is a very good sign that the power isn't a total mirage. This is especially true since it dates back to the end of last year (last 209 PA in 2021: .285/.325/.523, .311 BAbip, 9bb/37k). He's now at 479 PA with an ISO over .250. He can play any position, has plus speed and a plus arm. He'll be easy to find a spot for whether he's a legit top 20 prospect or more Brock Holt. If/when teams start to take him as a legit power threat, he'll hopefully start to draw more walks.

Really, anyone in AA right now could be in Boston in August 2023 if things go right. Starting the year in Boston is another question all together. Mid season promotions aren't exactly rare, though they aren't a given (Nick Yorke probably doesn't reach Portland this year). The fun thing with Rafaela is you can literally slot him anywhere on the field outside of 1b/C and have a plus defender with a plus arm and plus speed. And if this year is any indication, a plus bat.

Boston does have quite a few players hitting well with versatile defensive profiles. Nice thing to have, though none of them rank that highly on official sites. Yet anyway. Well, Mayer but he's not moving off SS.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Duran is really looking like he not only belongs up, but also as the lead-off CF’er. I still think potential playoffs in Toronto need to be a consideration and would look to package him with Houck (and mL depth) to bring another OF’er, SP (moving Whitlock to Houck’s spot) and BP arm.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Duran is really looking like he not only belongs up, but also as the lead-off CF’er. I still think potential playoffs in Toronto need to be a consideration and would look to package him with Houck (and mL depth) to bring another OF’er, SP (moving Whitlock to Houck’s spot) and BP arm.
Fortunately, having to play in Toronto will only happen if the Sox are the 5 and Toronto is the 4, or if both teams make it to the ALCS. In either of those scenarios it would be extremely frustrating not having Duran, but if Boston can take care of business and get the first WC slot, it’s not something they have to worry about
 

Van Everyman

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Duran is really looking like he not only belongs up, but also as the lead-off CF’er. I still think potential playoffs in Toronto need to be a consideration and would look to package him with Houck (and mL depth) to bring another OF’er, SP (moving Whitlock to Houck’s spot) and BP arm.
So by your logic we should trade away our lead off hitter and starting center fielder and our closer to make an injured pitcher our closer in the midst of a playoff race? That sounds like a viable plan … for a fantasy league.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So by your logic we should trade away our lead off hitter and starting center fielder and our closer to make an injured pitcher our closer in the midst of a playoff race? That sounds like a viable plan … for a fantasy league.
Depends on the return, no? I imagine a package of Duran and Houck would net a pretty good to great player. This is especially true if one thinks they are selling high. 2 major league ready players on cost controlled contracts would make the Sox a player in the trade market.

With that said, you don't move them strictly because of the Toronto thing. And if that hampers their trade value, you definitely don't.
 

BaseballJones

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As much as it annoys the heck out of us to see guys like Houck and Duran miss key games in Toronto - and our annoyance is justified, IMO - it would be short-sighted to trade them away for anything less than full value, because Houck is a really good pitcher, and Duran sure looks like he can finally play at the MLB level, and they're both young, and they both cost pennies - all characteristics important to Boston as they try to figure out how to lock up Bogaerts and Devers long-term. You don't just move guys like this because they're unavailable for a few games. Plus, as @Van Everyman pointed out, right now the Sox are very much in the playoff hunt, and these guys are valuable to them RIGHT NOW.

Now if they can get an excellent return for them...well, that's obviously a different story. (but that's true of nearly every possible trade scenario)
 

Ale Xander

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Trading cost-controlled young players who have the potential to better than competently fit firm necessary roles (closer, leadoff and/or CF) would be a Greek tragedy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Trading cost-controlled young players who have the potential to better than competently fit firm necessary roles (closer, leadoff and/or CF) would be a Greek tragedy.
Unless the player coming back was also cost controlled (though maybe for less time) and is a 5-7 WAR player. I doubt SLT was suggesting to trade Duran and Houck for a rental. Whether the right deal is out there, I don't know. I don't see anyone refusing a Juan Soto for Houck and Duran deal though. That's obviously not going to happen but maybe there's a Josh Beckett.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Unless the player coming back was also cost controlled (though maybe for less time) and is a 5-7 WAR player. I doubt SLT was suggesting to trade Duran and Houck for a rental. Whether the right deal is out there, I don't know. I don't see anyone refusing a Juan Soto for Houck and Duran deal though. That's obviously not going to happen but maybe there's a Josh Beckett.
Yes. Obviously if the deal is right…. Which I think it would be. Duran and Houck have tremendous value right now and would definitely bring returns not just rentals, that would help to fill in their roles.
sorry but yeah… I would be considering 4 possible playoff games in Toronto. If 2 every day players- Duran obviously and Houck could be called on in all those games- of their importance can’t play then use their value to find 2 that can! Soooo crazy!!!
 

sean1562

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Duran and Casas for Pablo Lopez of the Marlins? Or if we are married to Casas, Wilkelman Gonzalez and someone like Binelas? Lopez doesnt hit FA until after the 2024 season and is 26 years old.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Why, though? They need an OF and 1B more than they need another starter. The biggest positions of need, both short and long term, are OF and 1B. Trading two cost controllable assets at those positions, given the teams current assets and needs, just doesn’t really make sense right now.
 

BaseballJones

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Why, though? They need an OF and 1B more than they need another starter. The biggest positions of need, both short and long term, are OF and 1B. Trading two cost controllable assets at those positions, given the teams current assets and needs, just doesn’t really make sense right now.
Agreed. Right now the starting pitching staff is in good shape, though I am still convinced that Wacha is doing it with smoke and mirrors. But whatever. And they do have reinforcements coming in Paxton and Sale, though it will remain to be seen how good they'll be. Still...help is coming on that front already. It's the bullpen (though that may be aided with the addition of Paxton and Sale) that needs help, and 1b is still an issue. Trading away their stud 1b prospect seems less than idea.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, totally. They need a few RH relievers which seems like something they can get without losing any top prospects. Can they get upgrades by moving guys like Groome, Downs,, Seabold, maybe Dalbec? I would expect yes, given recent years. But the sudden emergence of Duran has come at a perfect time as it makes OF help much less of a need. 1B help would be nice but it feels less essential, at least to me, right now, esp with Franchy and Refsnyder looking useful.
 

Ganthem

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Duran has added a different look to this team with his speed. Nobody is untouchable but if the Sox don't become sellers after the 14 games vs the yanks and rays I think Duran will be one of the reasons why.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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From a baseball POV, with Duran having heated up at the plate so significantly (and even making a credible throw today), what’s the likely post-Toronto, post-Kike scenario?

Duran/Kike/Verdugo L-C-R, with JBJ a for late inning defense? Or does JBJ hang onto RF?
 

BringBackMo

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Duran has added a different look to this team with his speed. Nobody is untouchable but if the Sox don't become sellers after the 14 games vs the yanks and rays I think Duran will be one of the reasons why.
Wait, the Sox have 14 games coming up against the Yankees and the Rays? I hadn’t heard. I hope they do well so they can salvage their season and not become sellers.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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From a baseball POV, with Duran having heated up at the plate so significantly (and even making a credible throw today), what’s the likely post-Toronto, post-Kike scenario?

Duran/Kike/Verdugo L-C-R, with JBJ a for late inning defense? Or does JBJ hang onto RF?
A fourth OF in Bradley who is lefty and not a particularly useful hitter seems like an inefficient use of a roster spot. I guess you could make it work if you move Dalbec and keep Refsnyder; but I think the right decision would be to trade JBJ but I question how well that goes over in the clubhouse, think you have to be hesitant to mess with the current mix that seems to be working so well.
 

scottyno

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His babip will come crashing down eventually, but it still seems unlikely they'd send him down to keep playing jbj in the lineup every night. Figuring out if he's a viable starting outfielder every day next year is pretty important.
 

Jason Bae

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His babip will come crashing down eventually, but it still seems unlikely they'd send him down to keep playing jbj in the lineup every night. Figuring out if he's a viable starting outfielder every day next year is pretty important.
No one's sustaining a .400+ BABIP, but he is striking out a lot less so far (35.7% in 112 PA last year, 19.3% in 57 PA this year). Also making way more contact (68.5% last year, 78.5% this year). He's also brought the SwStr% down from 15.9% to 10.8%.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No one's sustaining a .400+ BABIP, but he is striking out a lot less so far (35.7% in 112 PA last year, 19.3% in 57 PA this year). Also making way more contact (68.5% last year, 78.5% this year). He's also brought the SwStr% down from 15.9% to 10.8%.
Already SSS, but 1bb/8k in his first 22 PA this year. Including today's game, 3bb/3k in his last 35 PA.
He had 4bb in 112 PA last year. He already has 4 in 57 this year. It's something, anyway.

Also, outside of last year, he's always had a pretty high BAbip. One would think that would be the case given his speed profile. It obviously won't be close to .400, though.

In AAA, he had a 24.2% K% and 10.1% BB this year in 196 PA. Last year, it was 23.3% K% and 10.6% BB% at the AAA level in 283 PA. Hopefully he's made the proper adjustments at the major league level because nothing about his year in the minors suggests improvement in that area. Adjusting to a new level after 100+ PA isn't exactly rare, though. His power is far less of a question mark. Wasn't all Worcester.

I've been bearish on him all along for one reason or another, but I'm kind of warming up to him. If he can keep his strike out totals down, he should be pretty productive.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Duran and Casas for Pablo Lopez of the Marlins? Or if we are married to Casas, Wilkelman Gonzalez and someone like Binelas? Lopez doesnt hit FA until after the 2024 season and is 26 years old.
Casas hasn't played since 5/17. I doubt he's being shopped around anyway but that probably impacts his current value some.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Duran has added a different look to this team with his speed. Nobody is untouchable but if the Sox don't become sellers after the 14 games vs the yanks and rays I think Duran will be one of the reasons why.
What do you think, they’re gonna go 2-12? And even if they dud they wouldn’t be remotely out of contention for a playoff spot. Give it up with this ‘sellers’ shit.

You can’t think Duran is worth multiple wins above replacement over a two week stretch when an MVP of the league is generally not even worth ten such wins.
 

snowmanny

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Duran has added a different look to this team with his speed. Nobody is untouchable but if the Sox don't become sellers after the 14 games vs the yanks and rays I think Duran will be one of the reasons why.
Math might be a bigger reason.
 

YTF

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Duran is really looking like he not only belongs up, but also as the lead-off CF’er. I still think potential playoffs in Toronto need to be a consideration and would look to package him with Houck (and mL depth) to bring another OF’er, SP (moving Whitlock to Houck’s spot) and BP arm.
Like most, I'm not thrilled with the non-vax status and in a knee jerk reaction suggested the Sox seek out an NL trade partner for Duran. If these two continue contributing in meaningful ways moving either one may be ill advised, moving both would be down right foolish. The lack of young, good, cost control talent at two key positions is exactly what we have been whining about for years and now we want to throw that all away? What if the Sox make the playoffs and never face Toronto? What if the vax requirement get's lifted before the playoffs? While that's probably not likely, is there a chance that it's lifted before or during next season? No guarantee that it is, but there's certainly a chance that it will be. Neither of these players are FA eligible until 20 freakin' 28. Dave Dombrowski gutted the farm...wa, wa, wa. Chaim Bloom traded away Mookie Betts and got next to nothing in return ...wa, wa, wa. Let's package Duran and Houck and toss in some mL depth for players comparable to Duran and Houck. Jesus H!!! This place sometimes.
 
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YTF

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From a baseball POV, with Duran having heated up at the plate so significantly (and even making a credible throw today), what’s the likely post-Toronto, post-Kike scenario?

Duran/Kike/Verdugo L-C-R, with JBJ a for late inning defense? Or does JBJ hang onto RF?
Any possibility that Arroyo is the odd man out and the Sox work a 4 or 5 man rotation in the OF while also using Kike' to spell Story with Story moving over to SS on days when Bogaerts needs a breather? I know Cora's been hesitant to do that, but I think over all it strengthens the team. After all, he's been looking to keep guys fresh and it would definitely strengthen the bench. Franchy gets his ABs at 1B and he and RFsnyder both allow the depth to give more than one starter a day off on those occasions that Cora goes in that direction. All of a sudden on any give day this bench doesn't look so bad.
 
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Yaz4Ever

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The anti-vax echo chamber here (yes, I’m vaxxed and boosted not that it’s anyone’s business) is blocking the views of some otherwise thoughtful analysis usually found here. Does it suck that two highly productive players will be unavailable for a series in Toronto this week and in the future when it may (or may not) matter? Absolutely. Should we cut off our nose to spite our face and sacrifice future success with cost-controlled players because we may disagree with a personal choice they’ve made? No. I’m aware this choice affects more than just them, but they have the right to make that choice. Now, if Chaim has reason to think he’s able to sell high and get more than mere rentals in return for these players, he’s also free to make that choice. Calling people ignorant/dumbass/whatever does not help to further the conversation in an objective manner. Let’s enjoy the skills they’re currently displaying and be creative in the same way we’d be in supporting players who have to miss a few games for personal reasons (birth of a child or being by the bedside of a dying loved one, for example). Even if it comes at a bad time and they don’t NEED to be there physically, few of us would begrudge them of the time missed in those cases. Think out of the box and be creative or shout into the wind of the echo chamber. It’s your choice.
 

kelpapa

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The anti-vax echo chamber here...
Do you know what am echo chamber is?
So by your logic we should trade away our lead off hitter and starting center fielder and our closer to make an injured pitcher our closer in the midst of a playoff race? That sounds like a viable plan … for a fantasy league.
Depends on the return, no? I imagine a package of Duran and Houck would net a pretty good to great player. This is especially true if one thinks they are selling high. 2 major league ready players on cost controlled contracts would make the Sox a player in the trade market.

With that said, you don't move them strictly because of the Toronto thing. And if that hampers their trade value, you definitely don't.
As much as it annoys the heck out of us to see guys like Houck and Duran miss key games in Toronto - and our annoyance is justified, IMO - it would be short-sighted to trade them away for anything less than full value, because Houck is a really good pitcher, and Duran sure looks like he can finally play at the MLB level, and they're both young, and they both cost pennies - all characteristics important to Boston as they try to figure out how to lock up Bogaerts and Devers long-term. You don't just move guys like this because they're unavailable for a few games. Plus, as @Van Everyman pointed out, right now the Sox are very much in the playoff hunt, and these guys are valuable to them RIGHT NOW.

Now if they can get an excellent return for them...well, that's obviously a different story. (but that's true of nearly every possible trade scenario)
Given all the FA’s to be, trading Houck and Duran seems like a really, really bad idea.
Trading cost-controlled young players who have the potential to better than competently fit firm necessary roles (closer, leadoff and/or CF) would be a Greek tragedy.
Why, though? They need an OF and 1B more than they need another starter. The biggest positions of need, both short and long term, are OF and 1B. Trading two cost controllable assets at those positions, given the teams current assets and needs, just doesn’t really make sense right now.
Like most, I'm not thrilled with the non-vax status and in a knee jerk reaction suggested the Sox seek out an NL trade partner for Duran. If these two continue contributing in meaningful ways moving either one may be ill advised, moving both would be down right foolish. The lack of young, good, cost control talent at two key positions is exactly what we have been whining about for years and now we want to throw that all away? What if the Sox make the playoffs and never face Toronto? What if the vax requirement get's lifted before the playoffs? While that's probably not likely, is there a chance that it's lifted before or during next season? No guarantee that it is, but there's certainly a chance that it will be. Neither of these players are FA eligible until 20 freakin' 28. Dave Dombrowski gutted the farm...wa, wa, wa. Chaim Bloom traded away Mookie Betts and got next to nothing in return ...wa, wa, wa. Let's package Duran and Houck and toss in some mL depth for players comparable to Duran and Houck. Jesus H!!! This place sometimes.
Given that multiple posters before you said this was foolish, this is not an echo chamber.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sizemore already had like 2000 big league PA’s by the time he was Duran’s age. He was an MVP candidate at the ages of 22-25. Sizemore also always walked a ton so not sure I see him as a great comp.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I was just checking Sizemore's B-ref page and totally forgot he was a member of the Sox.
Crazy that this is Durans age 25 season and he looks like he might be breaking out. Sizemore’ safe 25 season was his last good season
 

grimshaw

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Duran and Casas for Pablo Lopez of the Marlins? Or if we are married to Casas, Wilkelman Gonzalez and someone like Binelas? Lopez doesnt hit FA until after the 2024 season and is 26 years old.
Probably belongs in the trade stuff thread, but tangentially relatd to Duran.

The single biggest gaping, bafflingly difficult for them to fill hole the Red Sox have had the past few seasons has been 1b. The single biggest upgrade they can get without wasting resources and continuously throwing shit against the wall is a competent 1b for peanuts so they can spend other resources on harder to fill positions. The bar to clear is incredibly low too.

They have no OF depth and multiple (!) close to major league ready pitchers for the first time since the Theo era.

Those two guys should be among the last they offer up. And if they do, should be in a package for an actual stud.
 

paulb0t

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The trade they should make is for the anonymous player who bribed his teammates into getting the shot (suspected by some to be Adam Wainwright).
I mean, they shouldn't really have to, since the potential salary loss and future hurt on earnings potential will pay for itself ten-fold over time. So, it's frustrating to see Duran miss this trip (and future trips, apparently) to TOR because of his refusal to vaccinate – especially as he's essentially been everything we thought he could be.

That being said, if the Sox highest paid player wanted to bribe the younglings to get vaccinated, that'd be amazing. *Checks notes* Nevermind.
 

lurker42

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I mean, they shouldn't really have to, since the potential salary loss and future hurt on earnings potential will pay for itself ten-fold over time. So, it's frustrating to see Duran miss this trip (and future trips, apparently) to TOR because of his refusal to vaccinate – especially as he's essentially been everything we thought he could be.

That being said, if the Sox highest paid player wanted to bribe the younglings to get vaccinated, that'd be amazing. *Checks notes* Nevermind.
What's Craig Breslow up to these days?

Is there an opening for coach responsible for explaining science to 20-somethings who missed it in high school?

It could be a system-wide position....
 

BaseballJones

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That inspired me to look up Ellsbury's b-ref page. Man...it's unbelievable how much the Yankees paid for him, and other than a solid 2014, how little he gave them. LOL

BTW, how did that guy hit so few doubles? Raw speed alone and a decent batting average would make you think he ought to have hit a lot more. His stellar 2011 aside, which you referenced, he only hit more than 27 doubles ONCE, in 2013, when he hit 31. Meanwhile a lot of guys a lot slower hit a lot more doubles regularly. I don't get it.
 

streeter88

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That inspired me to look up Ellsbury's b-ref page. Man...it's unbelievable how much the Yankees paid for him, and other than a solid 2014, how little he gave them. LOL

BTW, how did that guy hit so few doubles? Raw speed alone and a decent batting average would make you think he ought to have hit a lot more. His stellar 2011 aside, which you referenced, he only hit more than 27 doubles ONCE, in 2013, when he hit 31. Meanwhile a lot of guys a lot slower hit a lot more doubles regularly. I don't get it.
Wow. $152M from the Yankees ($15M/WAR) out of $174M total career earnings. Red Sox paid $1M/WAR. Ellsbury clan set for generations.
 

Jason Bae

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Coco Crisp? Desmond Jennings?

That inspired me to look up Ellsbury's b-ref page. Man...it's unbelievable how much the Yankees paid for him, and other than a solid 2014, how little he gave them. LOL

BTW, how did that guy hit so few doubles? Raw speed alone and a decent batting average would make you think he ought to have hit a lot more. His stellar 2011 aside, which you referenced, he only hit more than 27 doubles ONCE, in 2013, when he hit 31. Meanwhile a lot of guys a lot slower hit a lot more doubles regularly. I don't get it.
Ellsbury did hit a lot of groundballs, especially in his first two full seasons (51.7% in 2008 and 50.1% in 2009).
 
Jul 16, 2005
43
No one's sustaining a .400+ BABIP, but he is striking out a lot less so far (35.7% in 112 PA last year, 19.3% in 57 PA this year). Also making way more contact (68.5% last year, 78.5% this year). He's also brought the SwStr% down from 15.9% to 10.8%.
Agree a .400 BABIP is unsustainable, but when you run like Duran and you're slashing grounders and line drives, you can pretty much count on an above-average mark.