Jarren Duran: Improving in His Second Shot

JCizzle

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I mean, they're losing a lot of games this year. That doesn't mean they need to make themselves worse by putting players in positions they shouldn't play.
How much worse can they be? I realize that Duran has no arm, but this is a 10-18 team and none of the team's outfielders have an OPS above .575. Make something up to get him on the roster with consistent AB's to see what they have. If they'd be 9-19 with him, too bad. Otherwise, why wasn't he traded this offseason for someone who might be in the team's plans?
 

BigSoxFan

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How much worse can they be? I realize that Duran has no arm, but this is a 10-18 team and none of the team's outfielders have an OPS above .575. Make something up to get him on the roster with consistent AB's to see what they have. If they'd be 9-19 with him, too bad. Otherwise, why wasn't he traded this offseason for someone who might be in the team's plans?
Meanwhile, Hernandez has a career OPS+ of 98, turns 31 this year, and has been complete trash all year. I don’t see him as part of this team’s future so it would be nice to see more of Duran in what is clearly looking like a lost season.
 

scottyno

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Not sure who an outfielder that also can't hit lefties is supposed to play over right now, with all 3 starters hitting well lately.
 

chawson

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Not sure who an outfielder that also can't hit lefties is supposed to play over right now, with all 3 starters hitting well lately.
Agree. Not sure who’s supposed to sit here.

I wonder. Oakland has seemed for a while like a good landing spot for Duran, a California boy, should we trade him. The A’s have few if any upper minors outfield prospects, Pache is struggling badly at the plate, and they’re bound to make their deals soon — Montas at the very least, potentially Laureano and others too.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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This is hilarious. We got three starting outfielders with OPS+'s below 80 almost a third of the way through the season and people are worried about who's getting sent to the bench?

I have no illusions about what Durran is likely to do with his bat, especially after last year's flop, but what do we have to lose seeing if he can provide some sort of spark?
 

Rovin Romine

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This is hilarious. We got three starting outfielders with OPS+'s below 80 almost a third of the way through the season and people are worried about who's getting sent to the bench?

I have no illusions about what Durran is likely to do with his bat, especially after last year's flop, but what do we have to lose seeing if he can provide some sort of spark?
Hmm. I think I know the answer by looking at the monthly OPS+ numbers, March/April then May:

Verdugo: 92,56
JBJ: 37, 106
Enrique Hernandez: 75, 75.
Dalbec: 33, 102
Franchy: na, 125

This means Cora just plays them all, and has Duran ride the pine.
 

scottyno

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This is hilarious. We got three starting outfielders with OPS+'s below 80 almost a third of the way through the season and people are worried about who's getting sent to the bench?

I have no illusions about what Durran is likely to do with his bat, especially after last year's flop, but what do we have to lose seeing if he can provide some sort of spark?
Those 3 outfielders are all hitting pretty well lately, they don't need "some sort of spark", they just have to keep hitting like they have lately, which happens to be fairly close to their career stat lines.

The news that Bradley will be out at least a little while makes this make much more sense.
 

YTF

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I for one am shocked that when Duran was up last season he didn’t hit his AAA numbers immediately. What a flop
I here ya. There's a learning curve and I'm happy he got more time in WOOstah last season and this as he just wasn't ready. I also have to say it was his defense that I was more concerned about. From what we saw of him I thought his defense was sort of iffy. IIRC he didn't seem to get good reads on batted balls, didn't get great jumps and didn't always take the best route to the ball. His arm didn't seem great and while he's fast he didn't seem to be a smart base runner though that seemed systematic in Boston for much of the season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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There's some ambiguity, but Arroyo looks like he's heading to the COVID IL again.

edit: he's vaccinated, right? This dude just has the worst luck.
Both my wife and I are double boostered and she had a slight cough- tested positive about two weeks ago. I tested 3 times and never positive... no symptoms. She's fine but she still wasn't allowed to go into her office.
 

Rovin Romine

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I"m not sure what the testing/isolating protocols are, but he might have had close contact with a family member or something. Caution is the wiser route.
 

Coachster

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I don't understand the big deal about Duran. Other than speed, he brings nothing we don't already have.

JBJ, (left handed bat) is a far better fielder.

Cordero, (left handed bat) might be a better fielder as well (hard to be worse....) runs well and appears to be adjusting to hitting at this level.

Refsnider, (right handed bat) can play multiple positions, and is hot right now.

Verdugo, (left handed bat) is a significantly better fielder, and although is having an alarming lack of power right now, is a better offensive player.

I wasn't a Refsnider fan in spring training, but I've come around to see his worth. I'm sure Duran could make me a believer, but right now I'm highly sceptical.
 

Ganthem

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I don't understand the big deal about Duran. Other than speed, he brings nothing we don't already have.

JBJ, (left handed bat) is a far better fielder.

Cordero, (left handed bat) might be a better fielder as well (hard to be worse....) runs well and appears to be adjusting to hitting at this level.

Refsnider, (right handed bat) can play multiple positions, and is hot right now.

Verdugo, (left handed bat) is a significantly better fielder, and although is having an alarming lack of power right now, is a better offensive player.

I wasn't a Refsnider fan in spring training, but I've come around to see his worth. I'm sure Duran could make me a believer, but right now I'm highly sceptical.
If he can be an average outfielder then that can be very useful for the team when they have two third of their outfield departing in the off season. Or if he comes up and hit it can increase his value as a trade chip.
 

YTF

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I don't understand the big deal about Duran. Other than speed, he brings nothing we don't already have.

JBJ, (left handed bat) is a far better fielder.

Cordero, (left handed bat) might be a better fielder as well (hard to be worse....) runs well and appears to be adjusting to hitting at this level.

Refsnider, (right handed bat) can play multiple positions, and is hot right now.

Verdugo, (left handed bat) is a significantly better fielder, and although is having an alarming lack of power right now, is a better offensive player.

I wasn't a Refsnider fan in spring training, but I've come around to see his worth. I'm sure Duran could make me a believer, but right now I'm highly sceptical.
There is a lot of redundancy with the LH hitting OFs, but as you mentioned there is the speed aspect so Duran does offer a better pinch runner option should the need arise. I would be surprised to see a couple of guys get additional days off against the A's. I prefer Cora keep his primary lineup intact for all three games of the St. Louis series so perhaps it's conceivable to give Story a day off with RFsnyder at 2B and Duran could spell one of the outfielders.
 

nvalvo

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Duran has ~500 PA at AAA now, and a .278/.366/.523 line in those PA. He's also 25. The upside is that he could be a decent defender in LF, playable in the other two spots, with perhaps a .260/.330/.480-ish kind of line with a pile of XBH and SB.

And as others are pointing out, Bradley and Hernández are FA in the offseason, so we need to see what we have in Duran with an eye to the future. Given that neither Bradley nor Hernández are tearing the cover off the ball (Bradley in 113 PA since May 1: .262/.295.402; Kiké in 144 PA since May 1: 220/.278/.349), it seems like we should also try to see what we have in Duran with an eye to the second half.

(Likewise Cordero!)

I have no doubt that Duran is not the defender that either JBJ or Kiké are; but if he can post an OPS .150 points higher, that may be worth tolerating.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, if Duran can be useful, he’s cheap for a bunch of years and allows the team to spend $$$ elsewhere. In an OF where folks are waxing poetic about Franchy and his sub 700 ops, the bar has been set pretty low. The Sox are contending despite pretty pitiful performance in the OF; might as well see what Duran can do; it seems unlikely that Bradley or Hernandez will be on this team next year.
 

chawson

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Yeah, if Duran can be useful, he’s cheap for a bunch of years and allows the team to spend $$$ elsewhere. In an OF where folks are waxing poetic about Franchy and his sub 700 ops, the bar has been set pretty low. The Sox are contending despite pretty pitiful performance in the OF; might as well see what Duran can do; it seems unlikely that Bradley or Hernandez will be on this team next year.
Cordero had a rough couple series in Anaheim and Seattle. The .672 OPS is nothing special, but he’d have at least twice as many home runs in any other park besides Fenway, and he’s currently got the team’s best walk rate (10.2%) and 2nd highest hard-hit percentage (Devers).

I’m a big Kiké guy, but I don’t know what the hell is up with him this year. Two months ago I’d thought he was a steal to resign at anything under $60M — now, who knows. If his year stays as bad as it has, I might even see a make-good one-year deal making sense for both parties. Regardless, I agree that the team is best served knowing what it has in Duran and Cordero for next year. I also really think we could be underselling Refsnyder as a contributor. Only one of those guys has trade value however, and it’s Duran.
 

nvalvo

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So, Duran's been pretty good IMO in his tiny sample. The main caveats are a ton of Ks at 35% and a pretty ludicrous .500 BABIP, but of course he earns some of his BABIP with his high-end speed and excellent quality of contact. But 7/22 with three XBH is pretty great, even if half of his outs are Ks.

Defensively, I haven't seen enough chances to really gauge his progress.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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So, Duran's been pretty good IMO in his tiny sample. The main caveats are a ton of Ks at 35% and a pretty ludicrous .500 BABIP, but of course he earns some of his BABIP with his high-end speed and excellent quality of contact. But 7/22 with three XBH is pretty great, even if half of his outs are Ks.

Defensively, I haven't seen enough chances to really gauge his progress.
Trade him now!

Actually, I do wonder if he’d be a decent trade piece. He seems less than the sum of his parts. His speed doesn’t translate into elite SB potential or great defense. His high K rate is problematic. But he has tools. I could see some teams valuing him highly.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He could be a decent trade chip, but with Verdugo and Cordero the only OF under team control for next year, it certainly seems like the team could use him.
 

Rovin Romine

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He could be a decent trade chip, but with Verdugo and Cordero the only OF under team control for next year, it certainly seems like the team could use him.
Refsnyder also, and Fitzgerald has gotten playing time out there. Plus there's some some AAA types. But I don't know their contract status.

I have to think Duran's in the top 3 at the moment, no matter how you stack it.
 

nvalvo

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Wait, how is Quintin Berry a reasonable comp for Duran? Berry never topped a .700 OPS in AAA. Duran has close to a .900 OPS in AAA.

I get that they're both fast, but they are pretty different players in other respects.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Hey, that's World Series Champion Quintin Berry to you. ;)

And that's not the worst outcome for Duran.
Well, in terms of the last couple months of the 2022 season, filling a Quintin Berry type role isn't the worst possible outcome. (rather see a 2007 Jacoby Ellsbury role, though)

Only rising to Quintin Berry's level from a career standpoint is pretty damn poor outcome from a baseball perspective.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Wait, how is Quintin Berry a reasonable comp for Duran? Berry never topped a .700 OPS in AAA. Duran has close to a .900 OPS in AAA.

I get that they're both fast, but they are pretty different players in other respects.
I was only talking about his base stealing compared to Dave Roberts. Duran has more power and is better overall than Berry for sure. But he’s less likely to get to an Ellsbury or Damon level and more likely to get to, say, Damon Buford, to name another Sox CF/OF.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I’m actually starting to become bullish on Duran. I was 100% not on his bandwagon last season but after watching him I think he’s a natural athlete and he’ll develop and adapt to ML talent. I suspect it’ll take him a frustrating full season but if he’s not dealt by the end of ‘22 then he should be given a starting OF spot for ‘23
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Any thoughts on Duran this far? Just looking at box scores- he’s doing pretty well so far and I’m liking him at the top of a lineup.
I think he has to stay on the team.
 

Koufax

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He's exciting to watch. Speed on the basepaths is highly entertaining. He's hitting well too. I haven't seen his fielding gaffes, but I understand he is a problem out there. Maybe Jackie Bradley can give him some pointers.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Duran's skill set was on full display last night. Leadoff single, SB and run scored in the first. Double, SB, run scored in the third. Add in a walk. The emphasis on line drive/ hard ground balls (even drag bunts) utilizing his speed vs creating loft for home run power has paid huge dividends. As he's going right now, he looks like the prototypical leadoff hitter of yesteryear (granted, the competition hasn't been the stiffest).

He doesn't get great reads/jumps off the bat, but his speed has been able to neutralize his inefficiency in first steps. Have to hope that reps can improve this, but he's been a full-time outfielder for a few years now. His arm is also pretty mediocre.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Duran's skill set was on full display last night. Leadoff single, SB and run scored in the first. Double, SB, run scored in the third. Add in a walk. The emphasis on line drive/ hard ground balls (even drag bunts) utilizing his speed vs creating loft for home run power has paid huge dividends. As he's going right now, he looks like the prototypical leadoff hitter of yesteryear (granted, the competition hasn't been the stiffest).

He doesn't get great reads/jumps off the bat, but his speed has been able to neutralize his inefficiency in first steps. Have to hope that reps can improve this, but he's been a full-time outfielder for a few years now. His arm is also pretty mediocre.
Seems like LF with Verdugo in RF would make sense. JBJ and Kike (when he returns- hopefully improving) mixing in CF and other OF spots is ideal then, no?
At this point it feels like Duran should be playing every day. That energy is important heading into the July-August stretch where it always feels like Sox teams of the past hit the doldrums
 

BigSoxFan

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Seems like LF with Verdugo in RF would make sense. JBJ and Kike (when he returns- hopefully improving) mixing in CF and other OF spots is ideal then, no?
At this point it feels like Duran should be playing every day. That energy is important heading into the July-August stretch where it always feels like Sox teams of the past hit the doldrums
Ellsbury was insane down the stretch in 2007 so I wouldn't expect Duran to match that but agree that he has the skill set to be a potential spark for this team. I really want to see him playing every day unless he goes into a tail spin or something.
 
Jul 16, 2005
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Seems like LF with Verdugo in RF would make sense. JBJ and Kike (when he returns- hopefully improving) mixing in CF and other OF spots is ideal then, no?
At this point it feels like Duran should be playing every day. That energy is important heading into the July-August stretch where it always feels like Sox teams of the past hit the doldrums
You'd be hurting yourself defensively in both OF corners. JBJ is hitting pretty well himself, and is tremendous in RF. But I agree; if Duran keeps producing like this, they have to find playing time for him. None of their OFs has even a .700 OPS
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You'd be hurting yourself defensively in both OF corners. JBJ is hitting pretty well himself, and is tremendous in RF. But I agree; if Duran keeps producing like this, they have to find playing time for him. None of their OFs has even a .700 OPS
The defense is really that bad, huh? A place where LF in Fenway wouldn't hide his shortcomings? Especially with a JBJ patrolling CF (and Kike v. '21) I'd guess that he'd be fine there. Obviously he doesn't profile as what you'd want in your regular Boston LF (middle of the lineup type) but Verdugo hasn't been that guy and I'm not sure he ever will be. What sort of offensive production would be necessary to cover any defensive shortcomings out there? I wasn't bullish on Duran last season but I'm seriously coming around to him as a potential offensive weapon that could at least provide average defense in a corner spot- LF at home... DH, rest or weak corner on the road (RF at the Bidet). I was hoping Kiké would be that guy for a few more years but I'm not sure. He's a FA after this season and is looking more like a turd than the version we got last season. Obviously lots of time to turn that around and with a lack of strong OF prospects coming up, it makes sense to really see what they have and not send him away in a short term trade or back to AAA