Jarren Duran: Improving in His Second Shot

Petagine in a Bottle

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With Houck replacing Duran, is this just a 3 man bench now? Will Houck go back down after his start, I assume, perhaps for Santana?
 

Rovin Romine

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You have to get on base to steal bases
Excluding his homers and triples, he was on base 17 times. It's surprising he only ran twice; and I doubt very much the coaches told him to go and he refused.

More to the point, he only started 20 of 34 games. He was used as a PR once. Safe to say that's on Cora.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Excluding his homers and triples, he was on base 17 times. It's surprising he only ran twice; and I doubt very much the coaches told him to go and he refused.

More to the point, he only started 20 of 34 games. He was used as a PR once. Safe to say that's on Cora.
and of those 17 times, how many times was someone else on the bases ahead of him?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Excluding his homers and triples, he was on base 17 times. It's surprising he only ran twice; and I doubt very much the coaches told him to go and he refused.

More to the point, he only started 20 of 34 games. He was used as a PR once. Safe to say that's on Cora.
I looked up those 17 on base opportunities (actually 18 because he had a reach on error where he ended up at second).

Of the three doubles, there was a runner on third in front of him on two occasions. The third he went to third on a fly out then scored on a groundout, and the team was already up 5-0 at the time (this was last Friday).

The reached on error was with no outs in front of Xander and Devers, who moved him over and drove him in. No reason to risk making an out with those guys at the plate.

The two walks both involved a runner on second in front of him (one loaded the bases).

The 12 singles involved eight times in which there was no one else on base. Of those...1 stolen base, 1 defensive indifference, 2 out at 2B (one FC and one double play), 3 times stranded, and he scored once. A couple of times the next batter swung at the first or second pitch, which didn't give him much opportunity to run even if he wanted to. Most of them were with either Kike or Xander at the plate.
 

scottyno

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The 12 singles involved eight times in which there was no one else on base. Of those...1 stolen base, 1 defensive indifference, 2 out at 2B (one FC and one double play), 3 times stranded, and he scored once. A couple of times the next batter swung at the first or second pitch, which didn't give him much opportunity to run even if he wanted to. Most of them were with either Kike or Xander at the plate.
So he went 3/8 times when he could have and most of those 8 were with a good hitter at the plate? Without even looking at game situation or counts that seems like a pretty decent amount of running, but I'm not sure how that compares to other players
 
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nvalvo

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The elephant in the room is 33 strikeouts and two walks in 89 PA.

It's under 100 PA for a 24 year old who missed a year of development last season, so I'm certainly not surprised or panicking, but he needs to improve that picture significantly. If he can, he could be a good starting regular OF. If he can't...
 

Daniel_Son

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Duran to get his second crack at the majors tonight. Currently sporting a .397/.478/.638/1.116 slash line through 58 AAA at-bats.

At 25 years old and with 274 games in the minors, I think this season is his last shot at being a top prospect. What are your expectations for him? Personally, I love what he brings to the table - speed, contact skills, a bit of pop. Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter if he can translate it to the bigs.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well, he's been hitting in his last few games, so at least his bat's not cold.

I don't have very high expectations of him, and I expect he'll be used in center for a few days with JBJ in right. I'd like to see the Sox try to use his speed to create pressure on the defense. The we'll get an icy Enrique Hernandez back.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Duran to get his second crack at the majors tonight. Currently sporting a .397/.478/.638/1.116 slash line through 58 AAA at-bats.

At 25 years old and with 274 games in the minors, I think this season is his last shot at being a top prospect. What are your expectations for him? Personally, I love what he brings to the table - speed, contact skills, a bit of pop. Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter if he can translate it to the bigs.
At 25, the good ship Top Prospect sailed long ago and is making its second lap of the globe.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Duran to get his second crack at the majors tonight. Currently sporting a .397/.478/.638/1.116 slash line through 58 AAA at-bats.

At 25 years old and with 274 games in the minors, I think this season is his last shot at being a top prospect. What are your expectations for him? Personally, I love what he brings to the table - speed, contact skills, a bit of pop. Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter if he can translate it to the bigs.
4th to 5th OF type unless he hits for more power than I expect him to with his new approach. That or an improvment in contact skills and BB%. The good news is, he's been hitting for power the last few games after hitting for none earlier on. If he can hit for power without the rest of his game suffering for it, he's a fringe all star.

And while I agree with you that this is his last shot at being a top prospect, it's a technicality. If he gets 38 PA this time around, he will no longer qualify as a prospect. He will be on 0 prospect lists next season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Anyway, since I'd rather be optimstic: He has 2 doubles, 2 triples and 2 HRs over his last 5 games and 23 PA. He had only 2 xbh (2 doubles) in his first 44 PA. Given it takes some time to get used to a new approach, maybe he's figured something out.
 

Daniel_Son

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At 25, the good ship Top Prospect sailed long ago and is making its second lap of the globe.
And while I agree with you that this is his last shot at being a top prospect, it's a technicality. If he gets 38 PA this time around, he will no longer qualify as a prospect. He will be on 0 prospect lists next season.
Yeah, this too. Depending on your definition of top prospect anyway. He was in the 80s/90s on most lists to start the year. He has never been on any pre season lists before this year.
I was going off of the list of top Sox prospects on MLB.com, which currently has him listed 4th behind Mayer, Casas, and Yorke. What I meant is that this stint in the majors will have a huge impact on his value in our system/how other teams may value him in a trade scenario (he's still got some potential on that front). Getting a cup of coffee last year and not doing anything significant is one thing - second time around, at 25 years old and with a track record of success in the minors, he has to prove he can stick.

EDIT: I'd also add that he's one of our best internal outfield options from the farm for a while. Next OF on that list is Miguel Bleis in rookie ball, followed by Gilberto Jimenez in A+.
 
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jon abbey

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Actually Duran loses prospect eligibility with today’s game because of number of non-Sept days on a MLB roster (I think it’s 45?).
 

johnnywayback

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I have the same concern with Duran I had with Benintendi: He's likely going to be limited to LF defensively, and there's just not enough offense to merit taking up a corner spot on a first-division team, especially considering we have Verdugo, whose best position is also LF. It's not that Duran can't be a good player, it's just hard to see him being a good fit here long-term. That said, it would be really nice if he took this opportunity to rebuild his trade value.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Benintendi is a career 277/349/437, 108 OPS+ guy, that’s a pretty good player, especially pre arb. Would be thrilled with that from Duran - which seems unlikely given that less than two years separates the two players in age. Benintendi’s Sox career was basically over when he was Duran’s age.

Duran has 4 bb / 41 k in his big league career. That’s concerning. He can’t be a useful player striking out that much and walking that little.

If he’s not a fit long term, as one of the teams top prospects, considering they have 0 OF signed long term..well the what does that say about the near term future?
 

chawson

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I have the same concern with Duran I had with Benintendi: He's likely going to be limited to LF defensively, and there's just not enough offense to merit taking up a corner spot on a first-division team, especially considering we have Verdugo, whose best position is also LF. It's not that Duran can't be a good player, it's just hard to see him being a good fit here long-term. That said, it would be really nice if he took this opportunity to rebuild his trade value.
My sentiments exactly. I’d be more optimistic if the same questions about offensive upside rested on a speed-and-defense package. But it seems like the defense part is rather missing from his game.

I still think he can be good, but it’s hard to measure since his swing change is relatively new. Benintendi seems like an odd comp. He always had superior bat-to-ball skills, if modest power, so he seems to have had a higher floor than a prospect like Duran. Though with a higher ceiling than the guy Benintendi settled into.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If he’s not a fit long term, as one of the teams top prospects, considering they have 0 OF signed long term..well the what does that say about the near term future?
I'm not sure it changes much. Duran never really seemed to be in the plans, though some would argue against that given JBJ. I doubt they had him pegged in as a starting OF for the next 4-5 years, anyway.

Also don't get why he's back in Pawtucket.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I'm not sure it changes much. Duran never really seemed to be in the plans, though some would argue against that given JBJ. I doubt they had him pegged in as a starting OF for the next 4-5 years, anyway.

Also don't get why he's back in Pawtucket.
He’s back in Pawtucket because there’s no AB’s available for a LH OF backup. There’s no one for him to platoon with or PH for.

He’s a top prospect…the teams top OF prospect…they only control Verdugo and Franchy past this year….yet Duran isn’t in the teams plans? Not sure I get this…is the expectation that the OF next year has at least two players not in the org as of now?
 

Cesar Crespo

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He’s back in Pawtucket because there’s no AB’s available for a LH OF backup. There’s no one for him to platoon with or PH for.

He’s a top prospect…the teams top OF prospect…they only control Verdugo and Franchy past this year….yet Duran isn’t in the teams plans? Not sure I get this…is the expectation that the OF next year has at least two players not in the org as of now?
You do know how often prospects fail and unless they are premium prospects, teams aren't going to factor them into their long term plans? Ronaldo Hernandez is the team's top C prospect. Do you think they are taking Ronaldo Hernandez into consideration when making moves? Duran is not the same level prospect of Casas, Mayer and Yorke. Far more room for failure.

I doubt this team was making OF decisions based on Jarren Duran. He's just not that level of prospect.

And technically, he's no longer the Sox top OF prospect. Miguel Bleis is. And might have been anyway.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well, I can only hope this means the team is correct in its implied assessment that Enrique Hernandez is ready to rock and roll. Right now.
 

moondog80

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The only possible explanation is that they think he is a potential everyday player, but that he more AAA at bats will be best for his development. Otherwise he should be starting in front of JBJ, or traded.
 
What seems to have happened here, and more accurately throughout all of professional baseball, is that organizations have tried to maximize the power potential of every prospect in their systems through weight-training and swing-plane mechanics. This doesn't fly with lefty-hitters in Fenway, where lefty hitters MUST be capable of spraying line drives to all fields. Even Teddy Ballgame, Devers and Big Papi knew that, and none of these guys have their kind of power.

We've been watching guys like JBJ, Verdugo, Franchy and Duran trying to pull everything for nearly a decade and ought to be plenty sick of watching these guys turning pitches on the outside part of the plate into 4-3 groundouts into the shift by now. More importantly, someone in baseball operations should be catching on. All of these guys have flashes of brilliance when they suddenly discover that pushing the ball to left creates beautimous run-producing possibilities, but then revert to launch-angle muscle memory after a week or so of success.

It took about 70 years (and ironically a change in ownership) for the Red Sox to finally figure out that the righty hitters they brought in to lift fly balls over the Monstah year after year shat the bed during the 81 games per season where that sort of power had no place. Duran may have more ultimate potential than either Verdugo or JBJ, but if continues to try to pull everything to the right side, he's not going to contribute to winning here.
 

catomatic

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What seems to have happened here, and more accurately throughout all of professional baseball, is that organizations have tried to maximize the power potential of every prospect in their systems through weight-training and swing-plane mechanics. This doesn't fly with lefty-hitters in Fenway, where lefty hitters MUST be capable of spraying line drives to all fields. Even Teddy Ballgame, Devers and Big Papi knew that, and none of these guys have their kind of power.

We've been watching guys like JBJ, Verdugo, Franchy and Duran trying to pull everything for nearly a decade and ought to be plenty sick of watching these guys turning pitches on the outside part of the plate into 4-3 groundouts into the shift by now. More importantly, someone in baseball operations should be catching on. All of these guys have flashes of brilliance when they suddenly discover that pushing the ball to left creates beautimous run-producing possibilities, but then revert to launch-angle muscle memory after a week or so of success.

It took about 70 years (and ironically a change in ownership) for the Red Sox to finally figure out that the righty hitters they brought in to lift fly balls over the Monstah year after year shat the bed during the 81 games per season where that sort of power had no place. Duran may have more ultimate potential than either Verdugo or JBJ, but if continues to try to pull everything to the right side, he's not going to contribute to winning here.
Insert Wade Boggs reference here.
 

BringBackMo

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What seems to have happened here, and more accurately throughout all of professional baseball, is that organizations have tried to maximize the power potential of every prospect in their systems through weight-training and swing-plane mechanics.
I’m not disagreeing with your general sentiment. It’s certainly the direction of baseball. But in Duran’s case, his rise as a prospect only happened because he/the organization prioritized maximizing his power. After flirting with .400 as a slap-and-dash burner in high-A Salem, he stalled out against the developed pitching in Portland and took a big step back as a prospect. He then retooled his approach, going for power, and exploded back onto the scene. He’s so far shown no ability to tap into that power in the big leagues, but you can make a credible argument that going for power has already taken him further than he would have made it if he’d stuck with his prior approach. In other words, Duran probably never makes it to the big leagues at all without selling out for power.
 

grimshaw

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I’m not disagreeing with your general sentiment. It’s certainly the direction of baseball. But in Duran’s case, his rise as a prospect only happened because he/the organization prioritized maximizing his power. After flirting with .400 as a slap-and-dash burner in high-A Salem, he stalled out against the developed pitching in Portland and took a big step back as a prospect. He then retooled his approach, going for power, and exploded back onto the scene. He’s so far shown no ability to tap into that power in the big leagues, but you can make a credible argument that going for power has already taken him further than he would have made it if he’d stuck with his prior approach. In other words, Duran probably never makes it to the big leagues at all without selling out for power.
I don't think the juiced ball and new ballpark's wind tunnel last season did him any favors for his development either. It's tempting to keep muscling up when you're all of a sudden hitting 425' bombs.
 

BringBackMo

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I don't think the juiced ball and new ballpark's wind tunnel last season did him any favors for his development either. It's tempting to keep muscling up when you're all of a sudden hitting 425' bombs.
I think this is a good an under-discussed point. That ballpark in Worcester appears to be really distorting the performance of hitters. It’s genuinely hard to know how seriously to take some of the numbers there. I hope they can make some adjustments to the conditions in a way that will normalize the results.