Jarren Duran: Improving in His Second Shot

E5 Yaz

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How's about we discuss a much-anticipated rookie in this thread, and keep the attempted humor where it belongs.

I'm doing this all wrong, so I'll stop moving posts over.

If there's something you want to cross-post from the other thread ... have at it
 
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JimD

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I hope that folks are looking at uber-prospect Wander Franco's .209 average and Dalbec-like 77 OPS+ in 72 at-bats with the Rays and are adjusting their expectations accordingly. The jump from AAA to the majors seems more daunting than ever after the lost 2020 season, even for top prospects. Hopefully Jarren is the exception but I'm not counting on it right away.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I hope that folks are looking at uber-prospect Wander Franco's .209 average and Dalbec-like 77 OPS+ in 72 at-bats with the Rays and are adjusting their expectations accordingly. The jump from AAA to the majors seems more daunting than ever after the lost 2020 season, even for top prospects. Hopefully Jarren is the exception but I'm not counting on it right away.
Not to mention Jarred Kelenic, whose debut had to be one of the most hotly anticipated and then instantly regrettable that I can recall.
 

joe dokes

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I hope that folks are looking at uber-prospect Wander Franco's .209 average and Dalbec-like 77 OPS+ in 72 at-bats with the Rays and are adjusting their expectations accordingly. The jump from AAA to the majors seems more daunting than ever after the lost 2020 season, even for top prospects. Hopefully Jarren is the exception but I'm not counting on it right away.
The seeming plan that he's going to be platooned to begin with suggests that the team gets it. It also suggests that they believe the reverse split is a blip. Regardless of whether the second belief is correct, I'm pretty confident that the Sox aren't just tossing him into the deep end and telling him to swim just yet.

(And Dalbec is up to 78 ;))
 

amRadio

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Not to mention Jarred Kelenic, whose debut had to be one of the most hotly anticipated and then instantly regrettable that I can recall.
.103/.188/.195 for Kelenic so far in the bigs. He might be nostalgic for the summer of 2020 at this point.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I hope that folks are looking at uber-prospect Wander Franco's .209 average and Dalbec-like 77 OPS+ in 72 at-bats with the Rays and are adjusting their expectations accordingly. The jump from AAA to the majors seems more daunting than ever after the lost 2020 season, even for top prospects. Hopefully Jarren is the exception but I'm not counting on it right away.
I've been kinda leading the arguments against bringing him up too soon, si my expectations are low. He's no savior. 2007 Ellsbury might be his ceiling, but I'm more expecting 2008 Ellsbury.
 

shaggydog2000

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For those of us out of the Boston/Worcester corridor, can someone give an updated summary on Duran's strengths and weaknesses, on both offense and defense?
The Duran scouting report at Soxprospects has just been updated:

https://soxprospects.com/players/duran-jarren.htm

Basically: Great speed, good hitting approach, strikes out a bit, plus power since his swing change, doesn't have great instincts in the OF but speed may help cover that, weak arm.
 

DJnVa

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I've been kinda leading the arguments against bringing him up too soon, si my expectations are low. He's no savior. 2007 Ellsbury might be his ceiling, but I'm more expecting 2008 Ellsbury.
Duran is going to be 25 in 2 months. Expectations should be tempered but his situation seems different than some super young prospect.
 

Detts

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The Duran scouting report at Soxprospects has just been updated:

https://soxprospects.com/players/duran-jarren.htm

Basically: Great speed, good hitting approach, strikes out a bit, plus power since his swing change, doesn't have great instincts in the OF but speed may help cover that, weak arm.
good summary. His wall is going to be the standard ‘teams figure out the holes in his swing’ and ‘can he adjust’.
 

Sin Duda

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He's a strong kid, so I'm hoping his "passable" arm improves to average or better once he's exposed to throwers like Renfro. Keep in mind that another 2B to OF conversion, Mookie, did not throw very well either.
 

nvalvo

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He's a strong kid, so I'm hoping his "passable" arm improves to average or better once he's exposed to throwers like Renfro. Keep in mind that another 2B to OF conversion, Mookie, did not throw very well either.
He's shown the athleticism to make big swing adjustments, so maybe he can do that as well. You're right that Betts really developed his plus arm at the big league level, but he was also younger.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Any first impressions? I saw him a lot in Portland but that's pretty much irrelevant now. He's a completely different player at the plate. I saw very little of his PA in Worcester.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Any first impressions? I saw him a lot in Portland but that's pretty much irrelevant now. He's a completely different player at the plate. I saw very little of his PA in Worcester.
I mentioned this in the game thread last night, but I have been surprised by his control of the strike zone. He’s got a decently high K rate this season, which I’d gladly take coupled with his HR rate, but he’s worked a number of full counts and lengthy ABs since being called up and seems to spot attempts to induce weak contact and spit on them. So far, he seems to be vulnerable to fastballs up, and up and in especially. I don’t know why, but I expected Dalbec-like ABs and at least he’s making the pitcher work.

He’s also shown, in the single against Cole, his homer off of Stripling, and the absolutely stung line out against Kay, that he can take it up the middle and the other way with authority.
The eye should allow for him to have more bites at the apple to show out with power but I’m hoping the coaches are encouraging his all-fields approach and increasing his BB rate as a priority. The power will come, but this team needs a table setter first and foremost.
 

scott bankheadcase

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I mentioned this in the game thread last night, but I have been surprised by his control of the strike zone. He’s got a decently high K rate this season, which I’d gladly take coupled with his HR rate, but he’s worked a number of full counts and lengthy ABs since being called up and seems to spot attempts to induce weak contact and spit on them. So far, he seems to be vulnerable to fastballs up, and up and in especially. I don’t know why, but I expected Dalbec-like ABs and at least he’s making the pitcher work.

He’s also shown, in the single against Cole, his homer off of Stripling, and the absolutely stung line out against Kay, that he can take it up the middle and the other way with authority.
The eye should allow for him to have more bites at the apple to show out with power but I’m hoping the coaches are encouraging his all-fields approach and increasing his BB rate as a priority. The power will come, but this team needs a table setter first and foremost.
He's got a high fastball problem right now though. Those 3-2 counts he missed ball 4 each time.
 

sean1562

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I can't wait for Duran to be the next great embedded Red Sox in NY. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2 time WS champion with the Red Sox, then 7 year payroll drain on our greatest rival, refusing to even play for them while cashing $21.5 million checks, then showing up to Pedroia's retirement in a Red Sox uniform. What a legend. Put him in the Red Sox HoF.
 

TapeAndPosts

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I can't wait for Duran to be the next great embedded Red Sox in NY. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2 time WS champion with the Red Sox, then 7 year payroll drain on our greatest rival, refusing to even play for them while cashing $21.5 million checks, then showing up to Pedroia's retirement in a Red Sox uniform. What a legend. Put him in the Red Sox HoF.
The Yankees really missed an opportunity not giving JBJ a 7-year contract.

Johnny Damon, sadly, did not cooperate like Tacoby and played almost as well in his four years for the Yankees as he did in his four years for us (his mild off-year in 2007 being the only real difference). Looking back Damon had a very solid career, giving the Royals some good seasons, good years in Boston and New York, and even some solid years in his decline phase in Detroit and Tampa, with only his last year in Cleveland really poor. Ended up with 56.3 WAR, 18th all time among center fielders (!). Too bad he's such a meathead.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Yankees really missed an opportunity not giving JBJ a 7-year contract.

Johnny Damon, sadly, did not cooperate like Tacoby and played almost as well in his four years for the Yankees as he did in his four years for us (his mild off-year in 2007 being the only real difference). Looking back Damon had a very solid career, giving the Royals some good seasons, good years in Boston and New York, and even some solid years in his decline phase in Detroit and Tampa, with only his last year in Cleveland really poor. Ended up with 56.3 WAR, 18th all time among center fielders (!). Too bad he's such a meathead.
I could have sworn Damon played for the A's.

Looking it up, he did. And it was bad.
 

mfried

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In all the uproar over Duran’s speed in the wonderful play in Wednesday’s nightcap, the excellent swings against Matz, reinforcing the reverse split from the minors, should be noted. Alex C seems to disbelieve in such phenomena transferring to the majors, but he hung in there very well, better, in fact, than he has done vs. righties.
 

Rovin Romine

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In all the uproar over Duran’s speed in the wonderful play in Wednesday’s nightcap, the excellent swings against Matz, reinforcing the reverse split from the minors, should be noted. Alex C seems to disbelieve in such phenomena transferring to the majors, but he hung in there very well, better, in fact, than he has done vs. righties.
I'm not sure one can say Duran has a drastic reverse split in the minors, as his OPS numbers are usually pretty close, and usually favor him hitting LHP. If we look at his "new swing" numbers from this year, he's hitting lefties a tick better.

Unless there's a good reason otherwise, I don't see what sitting him against lefties accomplishes.

And, Super-SSS but he's hitting lefties better at the MLB level.




 

Cesar Crespo

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SSS and doesn't mean much. Just thought it was crazy how similar the lines were.

Michael Chavis: 82 PA, 79 AB, 12 runs, 15 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs, 6 rbi. 1sb/1cs, 1bb/32k. .190/.207/.342
Jarren Duran: 84 PA, 81 AB, 11 runs, 18 hits, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs, 8 rbi, 1sb/1cs. 2bb/32k. .222/.238/.370
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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SSS and doesn't mean much. Just thought it was crazy how similar the lines were.

Michael Chavis: 82 PA, 79 AB, 12 runs, 15 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs, 6 rbi. 1sb/1cs, 1bb/32k. .190/.207/.342
Jarren Duran: 84 PA, 81 AB, 11 runs, 18 hits, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs, 8 rbi, 1sb/1cs. 2bb/32k. .222/.238/.370
Of course there's always Dustin Pedroia, who through his first 98 PA, 89AB had 5 runs , 17 hits, 4 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR's . .191/.258/.303
The best thing to happen to Pedroia after he was called up was that he continued to face ML pitching, not get sent back down to AAA to continue to clobber AAA pitching.

Edit--- so clearly Duran is going to be a better player than Pedroia. Right?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Of course there's always Dustin Pedroia, who through his first 98 PA, 89AB had 5 runs , 17 hits, 4 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR's . .191/.258/.303
The best thing to happen to Pedroia after he was called up was that he continued to face ML pitching, not get sent back down to AAA to continue to clobber AAA pitching.
Well, Chavis is this year too, not his first 82 PA. Chavis started off gangbanger like Dalbec.

The 2bb/32k in 84 PA for Duran is pretty alarming though. Pedroia was at 7bb/7k in his 98 PA.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well, Chavis is this year too, not his first 82 PA. Chavis started off gangbanger like Dalbec.

The 2bb/32k in 84 PA for Duran is pretty alarming though. Pedroia was at 7bb/7k in his 98 PA.
While there's really no way to sugarcoat this..... but what is league averages between 2006 and 2021? Pitching across the board has became much "better" in context and the umps I believe are calling a more aggressive strike zone to speed the game up. A couldn't abide by a player with an OBP below .340 back in the day and now that seems to be a desirable stat line for a good hitter.
 

Cesar Crespo

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While there's really no way to sugarcoat this..... but what is league averages between 2006 and 2021? Pitching across the board has became much "better" in context and the umps I believe are calling a more aggressive strike zone to speed the game up. A couldn't abide by a player with an OBP below .340 back in the day and now that seems to be a desirable stat line for a good hitter.
K rate in the AL in 2006 was 16.5%, BB% rate was 8.2%. Dustin's was 7.14% in both
K rate in the AL in 2021 is currently 23.4%, BB% rate is 8.6%. Duran is at 38.1% K%, 2.4% BB%.

Interesting note, there are already more strike outs in 2021 than there were in 2006. 1700 more, actually. AL only. Didn't bother to look at NL.
 

LogansDad

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I'm really curious how much the COVID season has to do with stats in the minor leagues as well. What I mean is, guys who were Major League players at least got a (shortened) season last year, but there are a lot of players in the high minors right now who lost a year of development, and I feel like pitching may be affected by that more than hitting. I'm curious if there is simply a bigger gap between AAA and Major League pitching this year than normal, and if that might have something to do with Duran's not great start.
 

Rovin Romine

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He's heading back to AAA, Houck taking his spot.
The tale of the tape:

Called up: July 17 to Aug 23.
Team games: 34
Appeared in 27, 21 as a CF (20 as a starter), 4 PH, 1 PR CF.
Batting: 86 AB .221/.236/.372. 0-4 as a PH.
OPS split: R: 63 AB for .664, L: 26 AB for .472.
Eyetest on Defense: average, weak arm.

Despite absolutely blazing speed, 1 SB, 1 CS.

As with Cora's other stuff, this last is a head scratcher. Why nullify one of the best parts of what he has to offer?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The tale of the tape:

Called up: July 17 to Aug 23.
Team games: 34
Appeared in 27, 21 as a CF (20 as a starter), 4 PH, 1 PR CF.
Batting: 86 AB .221/.236/.372. 0-4 as a PH.
OPS split: R: 63 AB for .664, L: 26 AB for .472.
Eyetest on Defense: average, weak arm.

Despite absolutely blazing speed, 1 SB, 1 CS.

As with Cora's other stuff, this last is a head scratcher. Why nullify one of the best parts of what he has to offer?
Market inefficiency right now seems to be a "small ball" type of team that can also have some plate discipline. Get on base, contact/situational hitting, steal bases. Spread out power hitters throughout the lineup and have guys that can bunt, etc... when the shift is on around them.