January 2025 Transfer Window: All Bark and No Bite?

rguilmar

rguilmar

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There’s usually plenty of rumors but very little action in the January Transfer Window. Two caveats are players who are out of contract, including TAA, and the Dani Olmo situation.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1874140093830881701?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


IIRC Alphonso Davies will also be out of contract this summer and is available to sign for a new club now.

The clock is ticking on Barca to get Dani Olmo registered. La Liga is reviewing the documents now. If the club haven’t made the necessary financial moves, Olmo can also be had on a free effective immediately with Barcelona on the hook for his entire contract. The player says he won’t leave regardless, but time will tell.
 
Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I cannot see Trent moving in January, too much attachment to Liverpool and too much to play for there this spring. But the fact that Real Madrid are bidding for him increases my sense that he will go there in the summer. They just have more money and are clearly willing to spend in wages+fees well beyond what Liverpool will be willing to spend to keep him. If he wanted to sign a new deal within the Liverpool wage structure he would have done it already. I can't think of another example where a top player in his prime ran down his contract this far, had bigger financial offers from other big clubs, and then still signed a new deal with his home club for less money. Ozil ran down his deal and resigned with Arsenal (sadly) but he didn't actually have bigger offers from anybody. Mbappe ran down his deal and resigned but only because PSG offered him the moon financially.
 
rguilmar

rguilmar

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:

I cannot see Trent moving in January, too much attachment to Liverpool and too much to play for there this spring. But the fact that Real Madrid are bidding for him increases my sense that he will go there in the summer. They just have more money and are clearly willing to spend in wages+fees well beyond what Liverpool will be willing to spend to keep him. If he wanted to sign a new deal within the Liverpool wage structure he would have done it already. I can't think of another example where a top player in his prime ran down his contract this far, had bigger financial offers from other big clubs, and then still signed a new deal with his home club for less money. Ozil ran down his deal and resigned with Arsenal (sadly) but he didn't actually have bigger offers from anybody. Mbappe ran down his deal and resigned but only because PSG offered him the moon financially.
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I don’t think a January transfer is likely. Liverpool have too much to play for and Real Madrid under Florentino Perez have stayed away from January transfers (to the point where it’s basically a club policy). Trent has been the likely target for Real Madrid for a while now, and the Carvajal injury just made it more of a necessity for them. They’ll just make it clear that they will give him a huge signing bonus instead of paying a transfer fee like they did with Mbappe.
 
rguilmar

rguilmar

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rguilmar

rguilmar

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Eric Garcia is likely headed back to Girona. He’s been around for so long at huge clubs that it’s shocking he’s still only 23. Barca need to clear out some logjams to ensure that they can register everyone this summer.

Umar Sadiq is off to Valencia on a loan with a buy option. Real Sociedad brought Sadiq in as an Isak replacement and he tore his ACL almost immediately. He hasn’t really recovered. He was great at Almería so I hope he gets career back on track. La Real rarely are involved in poor transfers, so this stands out.
 
Dummy Hoy

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My favorite part of the silly transfer season is headlines like "Arsenal and Chelsea keen on Nico Williams." Yeah, no shit.
 
rguilmar

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Dummy Hoy said:
My favorite part of the silly transfer season is headlines like "Arsenal and Chelsea keen on Nico Williams." Yeah, no shit.
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Yeah, I get to see a lot of these types of rumors because La Liga is viewed as a feeder for Premier League Clubs. Plus players in Spain must have release clauses in their contracts. Lots of talk about Nico Williams, Alberto Moleiro, Martin Zubimendi, and a host of others.

For the record, I would not be surprised if all three of those players moved this summer (and maybe Moleiro in January but that’s doubtful unless Las Palmas really need the money). Real Sociedad seem to have some cover for Zubimendi now, so he might be more willing to leave. He’s turned down England twice now, so it might still take some doing. Williams always wanted to play for Athletic in Europe, which he’s doing now, and the Europa League final is at San Mamés. If Athletic get to the Champions League next season, though, I bet he stays.
 
rguilmar

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Como continues to add players to the squad coached by Cesc Fabregas.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1876950601981980698?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


The project started with an army of end-of-career big names- Belotti, Varane, Pepe Reina, Alberto Moreno, Sergi Roberto. Hell, people were half joking that Cesc himself should lace them up. This summer they also added a bunch of players at or near their peak. Now they’ve stared to stockpile youngsters like Assane Diao from Betis and Nico Paz from Real Madrid (there is a distinct Spanish accent to the club). I’ve always like Fresneda and think this could be a steal. Como have dropped a ton of money this season and I’m unsure how they’re going to afford it all, but I imagine Fabregas can take a paddle boat around the lake and collect €20 million investors like candy.
 
Zososoxfan

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Rumors that Spurs are looking at Kolo Muani of PSG. Not a terrific finisher (friends with Werner??) but can play across the frontline and would add some experience to a forward corps that's both old (Son) and young (Moore, Odebert). This doesn't make that much sense to me though, as Solanke, Richy, Deki, and Johnson are also...on the squad. TBF, Moore, Richy, and Odebert have been out for extended periods of time, but the first two are scheduled to be back by the end of the month.

Spurs have already brought in a promising 21-year old Czech keeper in Kinsky. He's going to play as soon as today vs. Liverpool in the Carabao, and likely/hopefully means the end of Fraser Forster (big man, what's he got, big hands like a frying pan!). It was nice to Brandon Austin (a good ol' yank!) get real PT against Newcastle and I thought he was pretty good, but it's clear the club don't think of him as a viable option.
 
rguilmar

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Rumors of Araujo to Juve continue to pick up steam.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1877299216348832064?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


I would guess that this allow Jules Kounde to move back to CB in the future. I wonder if they make a run at Arnau Martinez to sure up RB down the road. Barca does love to bring back their old youth players, though the rumors will probably all be about Hakimi who is headed into the last year of his contract. I doubt that they change much in the short term.
 
Zososoxfan

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rguilmar said:
Rumors of Araujo to Juve continue to pick up steam.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1877299216348832064?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


I would guess that this allow Jules Kounde to move back to CB in the future. I wonder if they make a run at Arnau Martinez to sure up RB down the road. Barca does love to bring back their old youth players, though the rumors will probably all be about Hakimi who is headed into the last year of his contract. I doubt that they change much in the short term.
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Just my WAG, but I doubt Barca are looking to sell. Araujo at his peak is one of the best CBs in the world. They'll try to let him rehab his injury since Martinez-Cubarsi have been effective, but I doubt they sell. Erik Garcia OTOH, looks set to leave this month.
 
67YAZ

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Napoli sit atop the Serie A table right now. It’s going to take a mega-ridiculous offer to pry him out this window or Kvaradonna going on strike, which doesn’t seem his personality. But I could see this becoming a summer deal.
 
Dummy Hoy

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Article on the athletic makes it seem like he's out for sure...some interesting quotes from Conte on how hard he worked to get him to want to stay but in the end isn't going to hold him back. Disappointing for sure, but it sure sounds like it's happening- I'm sure Liverpool would swoop in if PSG can't free up the funds. I know reds love to cry poor, but they can afford who they want. It would jam up their front line a bit, but maybe some insurance against Salah leaving?
 
Kliq

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rguilmar said:
Perhaps my favorite player to watch joining a club a really dislike. PSG are closing in on Kvaradona.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1878082777737748776?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


I do find the newer version of PSG- the one focused on development instead of Galácticos- less hate-able, but still. I imagine the deal is tied to a Kolo Muani sale.
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At this point I'm happy to see players at least stay in Europe, as opposed to going off to obscurity in Saudi Arabia.
 
67YAZ

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Donyell Malen from Dortmund to Villa for £20m. I’m a Malen fan - fast, playable across the front line, hard charging. Emery has put together an attack that is pretty relentless.
 
rguilmar

rguilmar

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rguilmar

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Zososoxfan said:
Ugh, Zubi is a helluva player and I hate that Arsenal are getting him. Good biz.
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We’ve been down this road before only for Zubi to change his mind at the last minute. I do think that Real Sociedad is in a different spot as a club this time around which makes the move more likely. London is a bigger draw for him and his family than Liverpool (no offense to the Merseysiders out there).
 
rguilmar

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Zososoxfan said:
Just my WAG, but I doubt Barca are looking to sell. Araujo at his peak is one of the best CBs in the world. They'll try to let him rehab his injury since Martinez-Cubarsi have been effective, but I doubt they sell. Erik Garcia OTOH, looks set to leave this month.
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And you are correct

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1879515942096687560?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


There are some claiming that the injury to Martinez and Araujo’s performance in the Supercopa final made Barca change their minds, but I doubt that.
 
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