James Harden to Brooklyn

Average Game James

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We just saw lebron and ad do it in a splintered year with a dogshit, makeshift bench. I think the nets will be fine as long as kd is healthy
The 2020 Lakers bench looks like an all-star team next to what the Nets have left, and as good as KD and Harden are, Lebron + AD is better. If Kyrie flakes on the season, they could struggle.
 

nighthob

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Maybe. But that's why you get 7 years of picks. Do we really think Durant (had an Achilles tear) and Harden (notorious for working into shape not staying in shape) are going to be the same guys at 36,37,38? They could win 3 titles and the Rockets could still get 2 top picks out of it
They don't have seven years of picks, they get three Nets picks, '22, '24, and '26. If the trade works out for the Nets the first two picks produce, in an optimal scenario, solid roleplayers. The pick swaps in '25 and '27 might be worthwhile, but the odds are that Houston still sucks in those years and those distant swaps end up a wash. So, again, if the trade works for the Nets you're hanging your hat on a '26 #1 producing something decentish. The Rockets are in endless rebuild territory here. Unless they get some lottery luck in '22 and '23.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, that’s not a realistic assessment for Houston...there’s almost zero chance any of those guys are there when the last of those picks is made. You’re way, way over fixated on the first couple years.
The first three picks that they get are in '22 and '24. Harden and Durant will still be young enough/good enough to produce in those years (as will Giannis in Milwaukee). That leaves the '26 Nets #1 and the hope that the '25-'27 Nets are considerably worse than the Rockets. Which isn't that great a bet.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The first three picks that they get are in '22 and '24. Harden and Durant will still be young enough/good enough to produce in those years (as will Giannis in Milwaukee). That leaves the '26 Nets #1 and the hope that the '25-'27 Nets are considerably worse than the Rockets. Which isn't that great a bet.
They are potentially FAs after 2022. That’s, what, five picks they could hit on.
 

reggiecleveland

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Kyrie and Harden both want the ball all the time and at crunch time they are probably not the best guys on the team.
Lets see what Canadian Steve can do.
If it's them or the Lakers, i take the Nets.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I would have loved to see a Nets team built around KD with Dinwiddie, Harris, LeVert, and Allen and some well chosen role players in place of the complete grotesquerie they are now.
 

Cellar-Door

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The first three picks that they get are in '22 and '24. Harden and Durant will still be young enough/good enough to produce in those years (as will Giannis in Milwaukee). That leaves the '26 Nets #1 and the hope that the '25-'27 Nets are considerably worse than the Rockets. Which isn't that great a bet.
I mean, you can go back and look at the Nets/Celtics trade and see the exact same argument. Anything over 3 years out is basically impossible to predict in the NBA.
 

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I can see the flaws in the Houston side of the deal, but under the circumstances, could they have done much better?
 

moondog80

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Did they? They've won 1 playoff series in 7 years since the trade and only got above treadmill team because KD decided he wanted to play there.
They will be among the most heavily favored teams to win the NBA title both this year and next, at least.
 

Euclis20

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The first three picks that they get are in '22 and '24. Harden and Durant will still be young enough/good enough to produce in those years (as will Giannis in Milwaukee). That leaves the '26 Nets #1 and the hope that the '25-'27 Nets are considerably worse than the Rockets. Which isn't that great a bet.
It's a reasonably valuable lottery ticket, several of them. The infamous Celtics/Nets 2013 trade included a 2017 pick swap. The Celtics ended up with the #1 pick, moved it for Tatum and (eventually) Langford, and now the team has a franchise cornerstone for at least half a decade. Pick swaps obviously aren't as valuable as owning the pick outright, but no one knows what these teams will look like 5-7 years down the line. If any of these stars are still on the Nets they'll be well past their primes.

it was said earlier, but wherever he is now, Billy King is 100% behind this deal for Brooklyn. This is without a doubt an excellent deal for Houston. For Brooklyn, it absolutely will be painful down the road, the just have to hope they end up with a title because of it.
 

Apisith

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I’m sad, man. He was fun to watch, fun to root for. Incredibly unique player, gave his everything (until this year). One of the hardest workers over his time here, improved so much in all aspects of the game. He was also a chilled dude, maybe too chilled, but he was easy to root for. Feeling conflicted. Hated that it had to end like this. But it was a really, really good run. Not everyone GFIN move works, sometimes you run into the best team ever. But it was a great ride.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m sad, man. He was fun to watch, fun to root for. Incredibly unique player, gave his everything (until this year). One of the hardest workers over his time here, improved so much in all aspects of the game. He was also a chilled dude, maybe too chilled, but he was easy to root for. Feeling conflicted. Hated that it had to end like this. But it was a really, really good run. Not everyone GFIN move works, sometimes you run into the best team ever. But it was a great ride.
He was also probably a Chris Paul injury away from having a completely different legacy in Houston. Great trade by Houston that unfortunately didn't yield the ultimate reward but it was a hell of a run.
 

nighthob

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They are potentially FAs after 2022. That’s, what, five picks they could hit on.
Again, the starting point of the discussion was "If the trade works out for the Nets it's a horrible deal for Houston". Since you're apparently agreeing with me I'm not sure why you're arguing. (And I expect that they'll surreptitiously look to unload Irving this year just to keep him from spoiling the soup.)
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Controlling eight low firsts isn’t a start. Under optimal circumstances it means you get a bunch of Peyton Pritchard level players. Which means years of 35-45 win seasons with no daylight in sight.
That also assumes Houston had a viable future with Harden onboard. That was obviously not the case.

What would you have rather happened for the Rockets (besides Harden miraculously coming around)? What return could you get for Harden that didn't start a generational rebuild?
 

Tony C

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I would have loved to see a Nets team built around KD with Dinwiddie, Harris, LeVert, and Allen and some well chosen role players in place of the complete grotesquerie they are now.
lt's so weird. They had that awful trade that forced them into a rebuild that everyone said would take...forever, but they pulled it off beautifully and much more quickly than could have been hoped. Got a great cohort for a supporting cast and cap space to allow them to get stars. Which they managed to pull off with KD/Kyrie. A total inside straight so far and now....they've lost Dinwiddie, LeVert, and Allen and have a very dangerous but very thin club. As you say, would have much preferred they just add KD to a great supporting cast and maybe a guy like Gordon or PG (before it turned out PG was a bit of a headcase). Kyrie is just so good and sooo messed up.
 

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Nets are a little short at center without Allen. DeAndre Jordan is their lone post defender. Embiid is going to love this.
 

nighthob

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It's a reasonably valuable lottery ticket, several of them. The infamous Celtics/Nets 2013 trade included a 2017 pick swap. The Celtics ended up with the #1 pick, moved it for Tatum and (eventually) Langford, and now the team has a franchise cornerstone for at least half a decade. Pick swaps obviously aren't as valuable as owning the pick outright, but no one knows what these teams will look like 5-7 years down the line. If any of these stars are still on the Nets they'll be well past their primes.

it was said earlier, but wherever he is now, Billy King is 100% behind this deal for Brooklyn. This is without a doubt an excellent deal for Houston. For Brooklyn, it absolutely will be painful down the road, the just have to hope they end up with a title because of it.
The difference between the two situations was that when Boston made their deal they controlled their draft. Houston does not. That adds a complication that Danny didn't have. Danny was just betting that Billy Knight wouldn't be able to rebuild the Nets after Pierce and Garnett left.

Now Danny had fantastic luck in '16 & '17. But then he traded the '18 first for an albatross. If there's a silver lining for the Rockets it's that the Nets currently have that same albatross under contract and he's fully capable of Kyrieing up the team. Which goes back to my point, the only way this works for Houston is if Irving goes off the edge of the flat earth.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Still find it amazing that Pacers wouldn't trade Oladipo for Hayward but 12 games in the season found it okay to jettison him for LaVert. Wonder how GH feels about that.

Controlling eight low firsts isn’t a start. Under optimal circumstances it means you get a bunch of Peyton Pritchard level players. Which means years of 35-45 win seasons with no daylight in sight.
Eight Payton Pritchards would never lose a game; try to keep up.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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The East just got..... less predictable?

I hope someone documents who exactly thinks this makes the Nets the team to beat in the east, because I think that is totally not clear until we see them play together for 5 games minimum.
I don't think they are the team to beat, but after a rocky regular season figuring out the roles and rotations, would it be the most shocking thing in the world for a 6 or 7 seed Nets team to make a strong run at the Finals? I'm not going to bet against them in the playoffs, will say that...
 

OnWisc

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With everything going on I totally missed on the Nets hiring Isiah as their GM.

I love this trade. This is going to implode spectacularly and, I suspect, almost immediately. What's the over/under on the number of games where these three are all in the lineup for the Nets (ever, not just this season)? 40?

Once Kyrie returns, and they hit a speedbump, and he storms off again, how are they going to coax him back with no more assets to trade? Or until Harden sees what Kyrie is doing and heads to Vegas?

This is going to be glorious.
 

nighthob

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As a Houston fan I’m hoping that Irving takes his cookies and goes home. And that either Harden or Durant gets injured slightly and misses enough time for the Nets to miss the playoffs. Just so that Houston gets Moses Moody out of this shitass season.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Really seems like everybody comes out ahead of the Nets in this trade.

Lavert is really good! Doesn’t Oladipo fit better on the Nets than Harden?

this is baffling
 

PedroKsBambino

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Again, the starting point of the discussion was "If the trade works out for the Nets it's a horrible deal for Houston". Since you're apparently agreeing with me I'm not sure why you're arguing. (And I expect that they'll surreptitiously look to unload Irving this year just to keep him from spoiling the soup.)
No, as Cellar Door noted they just have two different window. And your assessment of the value to Houston seems way off to me anyway.
 

nighthob

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No, as Cellar Door noted they just have two different window. And your assessment of the value to Houston seems way off to me anyway.
In order for the deal to work out for Houston the Nets have to implode before ‘24. Houston only gets three Brooklyn #1s, ‘22, ‘24, and ‘26. Everything after that is a swap right that’s unlikely to be exercised or be only of marginal value if the Nets implode in the middle of the decade because Houston will still be in the netherland of late lottery drafting in the ‘25-‘27 timeframe without considerable lottery luck in the mean time.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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In order for the deal to work out for Houston the Nets have to implode before ‘24. Houston only gets three Brooklyn #1s, ‘22, ‘24, and ‘26. Everything after that is a swap right that’s unlikely to be exercised or be only of marginal value if the Nets implode in the middle of the decade because Houston will still be in the netherland of late lottery drafting in the ‘25-‘27 timeframe without considerable lottery luck in the mean time.
The Nets don't have to "implode" for the trade to work out for Houston. They just have to not win the title in the 2-year window.

If the trio falls short in that time frame, I'll take the over on all leaving BKN.
 

ColonelMustard

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When you consider the time horizon, this trade is a Win-Win. The trade also isn't comparable to the Celtics Nets trade. Harden is in his prime (31). Garnett (37) and Pierce (36) trade was in the twilight of their careers.

Brooklyn

It appears that Kyrie is out for at a minimum for a short period or disinterested in playing basketball all together (reports of sitting out the year). It's conceivable that the Net's don't know anything about Kyries plans. They had to make a decision.

In the short-term, the trade puts more pressure on stars to perform during the regular season. There's one ball, but there will be enough shots to go around, especially with Kyrie sidelined for another 10+(?) days. Each of the three can conceivably take over games. If/when they develop more chemistry together, playing the Nets around the perimeter will be challenging, especially as all three have a penchant for shooting way downtown. During the post-season, the shortened bench will allow them to outshoot opponents.

I've lived in the area and come back frequently, and this is an economic boon for Atlantic Ave and Downtown Brooklyn. At the very minimum, they are going to be fun to watch.

Houston

Houston had to make a decision and get out of a quickly deteriorating relationship with Harden. Houston could have done more to shop Harden sooner; however, the right buyers didn't emerge in the offseason. Simmons, with his flaws, is not going to take them over any hump by himself. Houston will need a core rebuild.

I'm sure Houston has done enough scenario planning and simulations for this trade to work out down the road. BK will have either late picks or no picks to replenish their bench/supporting casts. Once Kyrie, the Beard, and KD leave, the picks and swaps will be significantly more valuable. The scenario does not consider Kyrie's volatility, which can substantially decrease the time to value. It leaves Houston with 3-4 potentially high lottery opportunities

2021 (Swap)
2022 (Pick)
2023 (Swap) - Harden Free Agent
2024 (Pick) - Potential Lottery (Harden - 35, Durant - 36)
2025 (Swap) - Potential Lottery
2026 (Pick)- Potential Lottery
2027 (Swap) - Potential Lottery
 

benhogan

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Good point Colonial.
Harden is in his prime (31). Garnett (37) and Pierce (36) trade was in the twilight of their careers.

Harden + KD (32) + Kayne (28)...Nets can stay "better" longer than the Billy King Nets.

I'm just glad Houston didn't get Morey'd into moving Harden for 76er flotsam (Tobias Harris/Maxey/Thybulle/picks).
 

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I've lost track of the thread a bit, so maybe this has been discussed: does this deal increase the chances of Durant not exercising his 2022 player option if Kyrie continues his path of insanity? It guarantees him a quality running partner even if the potential of this new "big three" isn't realized.

Of course opportunities to build depth are compromised.
 

Apisith

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When you consider the time horizon, this trade is a Win-Win. The trade also isn't comparable to the Celtics Nets trade. Harden is in his prime (31). Garnett (37) and Pierce (36) trade was in the twilight of their careers.

Brooklyn

It appears that Kyrie is out for at a minimum for a short period or disinterested in playing basketball all together (reports of sitting out the year). It's conceivable that the Net's don't know anything about Kyries plans. They had to make a decision.

In the short-term, the trade puts more pressure on stars to perform during the regular season. There's one ball, but there will be enough shots to go around, especially with Kyrie sidelined for another 10+(?) days. Each of the three can conceivably take over games. If/when they develop more chemistry together, playing the Nets around the perimeter will be challenging, especially as all three have a penchant for shooting way downtown. During the post-season, the shortened bench will allow them to outshoot opponents.

I've lived in the area and come back frequently, and this is an economic boon for Atlantic Ave and Downtown Brooklyn. At the very minimum, they are going to be fun to watch.

Houston

Houston had to make a decision and get out of a quickly deteriorating relationship with Harden. Houston could have done more to shop Harden sooner; however, the right buyers didn't emerge in the offseason. Simmons, with his flaws, is not going to take them over any hump by himself. Houston will need a core rebuild.

I'm sure Houston has done enough scenario planning and simulations for this trade to work out down the road. BK will have either late picks or no picks to replenish their bench/supporting casts. Once Kyrie, the Beard, and KD leave, the picks and swaps will be significantly more valuable. The scenario does not consider Kyrie's volatility, which can substantially decrease the time to value. It leaves Houston with 3-4 potentially high lottery opportunities

2021 (Swap)
2022 (Pick)
2023 (Swap) - Harden Free Agent
2024 (Pick) - Potential Lottery (Harden - 35, Durant - 36)
2025 (Swap) - Potential Lottery
2026 (Pick)- Potential Lottery
2027 (Swap) - Potential Lottery
This is correct. The hope is now that the Nets are forced to extend Harden in the offseason, and then extend Durant as well. Then they'll be locked into these 2 until 2026, when both will be 37 and 38, and hopefully useless by then. The 2026 and 2027 pick and swap is the potential jackpot for us. I don't think '24 and '25 will turn out to be much because both players would still be young enough to be useful.
 

nighthob

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The Nets don't have to "implode" for the trade to work out for Houston. They just have to not win the title in the 2-year window.

If the trio falls short in that time frame, I'll take the over on all leaving BKN.
Whether or not the Nets win a title isn’t relevant to Houston. If ringchasers are joining Durant/Harden then they’re a 60 win team until Durant and Harden age out of the top ten. And the Nets continuing to be good is the most likely scenario as Harden and Durant have games that should age (unlike Westbrook).
 

nighthob

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This is correct. The hope is now that the Nets are forced to extend Harden in the offseason, and then extend Durant as well. Then they'll be locked into these 2 until 2026, when both will be 37 and 38, and hopefully useless by then. The 2026 and 2027 pick and swap is the potential jackpot for us. I don't think '24 and '25 will turn out to be much because both players would still be young enough to be useful.
Yeah, that’s pretty much the hope, that the Nets breakdown in ‘26 and that Houston get at least one lottery pick out of the deal. Unfortunately there’s not a lot of hope otherwise because they didn’t get good enough picks to make a bid on a disgruntled star in the meantime. They have to pray that they come up with something good in ‘22 or ‘23.
 

Kliq

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Imagine having followed the NBA over the last few years and thinking that Harden/Durant could still be teammates in 2026? One of them could be gone this summer!
 

lars10

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This was a century ago but wasn't Harden fantastic as a third option in OKC?
I think the key is the first part of your sentence.. he's not that player now...he got out of OKC so he could be the man and not the third option.
In my mind Durant is the one that loses here..because yet again he'll probably be the best player on the court most of the time with two people that won't pass to him as much as they should.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Woj mentioned that the Harden to Brooklyn plan was hatched over the summer. I wonder if Kyrie's absence is a function of him knowing Harden was about to force the issue. He may not be happy with this development at all.
 

lovegtm

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I learned my lesson about betting against thin teams with multiple top-5 talents with the Lakers last year, although even then they needed the emergence of some surprising complementary guys.

Having said that.......there are a ton of ways for this to go horrifically wrong for Brooklyn, and only a very narrow path to things going right.
 

scottyno

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Woj mentioned that the Harden to Brooklyn plan was hatched over the summer. I wonder if Kyrie's absence is a function of him knowing Harden was about to force the issue. He may not be happy with this development at all.
The nba really needs to fix the problem of players colluding while under contract to have one of them shoot his way out of town to team up with the other (yes I know technically by rule it isn't colluding)
 

kazuneko

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So I’m a bit confused. I don’t understand why Houston involved Indiana in the trade and how it is that Houston ends up essentially trading Lavert (a very good player with three years remaining on a reasonable contract) and a 2nd round pick for Oladipo (a similarly good player on a one year contract that is certain to leave Houston first chance he gets). Why wouldn’t Houston just keep Lavert? And if for some salary cap reason they had to trade him, couldn’t they have done better then one year of Oladipo? I mean, heck, wouldn’t Lavert have fit into the Cs trade exception and wouldn’t a first round pick or a Cs young player (or both) have been more valuable than Oladipo to Houston?
Either way this seems like a huge steal for Indiana. Lavert is a great return for a guy who was going to leave anyway..
 

Bunt Single

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Woj mentioned that the Harden to Brooklyn plan was hatched over the summer. I wonder if Kyrie's absence is a function of him knowing Harden was about to force the issue. He may not be happy with this development at all.
Another possibility(pure speculation here): maybe Kyrie and Harden were coordinating with each other to get the deal done -- Kyrie to push the Nets to make their best, final offer; Harden to see that Houston took the offer.
Who knows, with Kyrie?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So I’m a bit confused. I don’t understand why Houston involved Indiana in the trade and how it is that Houston ends up essentially trading Lavert (a very good player with three years remaining on a reasonable contract) and a 2nd round pick for Oladipo (a similarly good player on a one year contract that is certain to leave Houston first chance he gets). Why wouldn’t Houston just keep Lavert? And if for some salary cap reason they had to trade him, couldn’t they have done better then one year of Oladipo? I mean, heck, wouldn’t Lavert have fit into the Cs trade exception and wouldn’t a first round pick or a Cs young player (or both) have been more valuable than Oladipo to Houston?
Either way this seems like a huge steal for Indiana. Lavert is a great return for a guy who was going to leave anyway..
Guessing that HOU didn't want LaVert's long-term contract. If this is correct, as mentioned upthread, HOU is going to see how far they go this year - for optics reasons - and then look to tear it all down next year.

Wall and LaVert and Wood are probably good enough to keep them in the low playoff seed merry-go-round.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I learned my lesson about betting against thin teams with multiple top-5 talents with the Lakers last year, although even then they needed the emergence of some surprising complementary guys.

Having said that.......there are a ton of ways for this to go horrifically wrong for Brooklyn, and only a very narrow path to things going right.
To me, there's a huge difference between having two top-5 guys with All-defenssive NBA (or All-defensive NBA ability), neither of whom needs to dominate shots. Sure the Nets will be able to score but will they be able to outscore everyone once the playoffs come around?
 

PedroKsBambino

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I certainly could be proven wrong---the Nets are potentially a historically great offense team---but they look to me like a team that is going to struggle a lot against good playoff teams. The defense is a real problem, and the rebounding may also be. The chemistry is equally uncertain.

What's the precedent for this profile---three stars, all weighted to the offensive end, thrown together---getting it done? Closest that comes to mind is the Cavs in 2016ish. But they had Lebron and these guys don't. If Kyrie continues to wander the earth like Cane that problem only gets worse.
 

lexrageorge

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Trying to parse Houston's draft capital over the next few years. Please correct where I'm wrong.

2021: Swap with Nets, which seems highly unlikely to be used. And the worse of their own or OKC, top-4 protected.
2022: Their own plus the Nets and Bucks picks. Tankathon target.
2023: Swap with Nets. Tankathon, part deux.
2024: Nets pick.
2025: Worse of their own or OKC's, albeit top-20 protected for Houston, and rights to swap that with the Nets pick.
2026: Nets pick.
2027: Swap with Nets.

I'm not as critical as @nighthob on the above, as the Rockets lack of draft capital in the mid-2020's is due to a trade that already happened. Basically, Houston took the best path to restocking the draft cupboard. If I were GM, I would definitely prime 2022/23 to be the tank years. At least Houston tends to be on the radar for NBA free agents; the weather there is quite nice in NBA season, and the area seems friendly to those wanting the NBA lifestyle.

The Nets will obviously be a top team through at least 2022. Durant and Harden alone are enough, IMO; Kyrie is basically a useful addition for them at this point. Hell, Terry Rozier or Lonzo Ball or Rajon Rondo would be more than enough for them at the PG position. At this point, Kyrie becomes a "who cares". If he doesn't want to play for Nash, trade him for a mini-haul and move on.

There's indeed longer term risk for the Nets. I don't think it's a given that these strong-willed, highly competitive individuals would want to stay together in the same locale year after year after year. Durant could leave after 2022 for whatever reason, and he has a track record of doing exactly that. Maybe the Zion Pelicans become an attractive target for him to spend his mid-to-late 30's. The same goes for Harden. There's absolutely no way to predict how those 2025 or 2026 draft picks will end up, and anyone that claims they can model that is full of shit. For years, we've heard how valuable the Kings and the Grizzlies pick were going to be, until both teams unexpectedly improved and the picks turned into Langford and Nesmith. The same can happen in the other direction as well.

Still, it was the right move for the Nets. I distinctly remember Bob Ryan's "maybe they will make the playoffs" comment after KG and Ray Allen joined Pierce. The reality is that you have to try real, real hard to screw up a team with two players who can lay claim to a spot on the first All-NBA team in a given season. The Nets have never won anything, but now have a chance to be a huge draw once the needles are in everyone's arms, which will be no later than next season come hell or high water. There's no point constantly waiting for the future; the ceiling for most draft picks is decent player.

Let's put it this way: if Harden cannot make it work with KD, he should no longer be considered a top 5 player in the league.