What's the explanation for the different cap treatments for different teams? Teams matching an offer sheet are subject to different rules than teams giving out offer sheets?
Jacksonity......or the Knick thread
- Thread starter Rocco Graziosa
- Start date
Now when we put it in terms of what other PGs make ~$8M, it doesnt look so bad, but I am of the belief that bad contracts [Conley, Dragic, Stuckey] shouldnt justify others.
Anyway, my issue with the offer is that I just havent seen the statistical backing for Lin. I have seen flashes where he looked very impressive, but there were also some silly turnovers. My guess is that Morey thinks those turnovers can go away as Lin matures as a player. Then that 2nd month sticks out at me where the assist to turnover ratio got to that great 2:1 but assists suffered.
Just seems to me as though there are a lot of questions about Lin, so personally I wouldnt offer him a deal at $8M per if I was Morey.
Anyway, my issue with the offer is that I just havent seen the statistical backing for Lin. I have seen flashes where he looked very impressive, but there were also some silly turnovers. My guess is that Morey thinks those turnovers can go away as Lin matures as a player. Then that 2nd month sticks out at me where the assist to turnover ratio got to that great 2:1 but assists suffered.
Just seems to me as though there are a lot of questions about Lin, so personally I wouldnt offer him a deal at $8M per if I was Morey.
Lin turned the ball over less frequently last year than Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash, and Ricky Rubio. His ridiculous usage rates led to high raw numbers turnover wise, but in terms of the percentage of his possessions that led to turnovers, he fell in line with other aggressive point guards. And like you said, he was basically a rookie last year and it's likely the turnover numbers will improve.
The NBA also has a salary floor. As mentioned in the Jeff Green thread, it's just the nature of the NBA that players like Lin get overpaid. That money can't go to rookies, and thanks to the maximum salary, it can't all go to the true superstars. Rockets need to get up to a $45M cap figure somehow, and $8M for Lin seems as good a bet as any.
I find it amazing at the two huge sports phenomenoms from last year, Tebow and Lin, are going to be in different places one season later.
Per 36 minutes according to basketball refrence:
Lin had 4.8 TOs per 36, played 940 minutes total and averaged 8.3 assists per 36 min
Rubio had 3.4, played 1404 minutes, and averaged 8.6 assists
Rondo had 3.6, played 1957 minutes, and averaged 11.4 assists
Nash had 4.2, played 1061 minutes, and averaged 12.2 assists
From a TO per 36 perspective Lin is close to Rubio, Rondo and Nash, he is still the worst. His closest comp is probably Rubio based on their lack of NBA experience, but Rubio had a much lower TO rate and averaged slightly more assists per 36. I dont think the guy is horrible, I just think its somewhat risky to give him a 3yr deal that averages about $8M a season thats all. I would say the same thing if Kahn did that with Rubio
Go down a column, G&MB is referring to his usage stats, which attempts to factor in pace.
Assist%- Lin-41.0 (Rubio-37.4, Rondo-52.5, Nash- 53.1)
ToV% (an estimate of TOs per 100 plays)- Lin- 21.4 (Rubio- 22.2, Rondo-22.8, Nash- 27.1)
Per/36 numbers will be skewed upwards for a guy who dominated the ball as much as Lin did.
Assist%- Lin-41.0 (Rubio-37.4, Rondo-52.5, Nash- 53.1)
ToV% (an estimate of TOs per 100 plays)- Lin- 21.4 (Rubio- 22.2, Rondo-22.8, Nash- 27.1)
Per/36 numbers will be skewed upwards for a guy who dominated the ball as much as Lin did.
Larry Coon has done a really good job of showing how the Knicks could match Lin, and then in the event that he hasn't panned out as a player, use the stretch provision to avoid paying insane amounts of tax in the 3rd year. Essentially, they could cut him after year 2 and have that 14.8 million dollar cap hit spread out over 3 years at about 4.9 million per, him reduces the luxury tax payment to about 7 million dollars, much more palatable than the 40 some odd million dollar figures that have been quoted all week.
It's also worth noting that matching on Lin doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be tax payers in 2015. Carmelo Anthony has a player option that year, and could very well opt for free agency. Amare and Tyson Chandler will also be an expiring contracts at that point, and could be moved. There's no guarantee the core of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler will still be intact at that point, and I can easily see a scenario where Knicks fans have turned on Carmelo and he looks for a deal elsewhere.
It's also worth noting that matching on Lin doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be tax payers in 2015. Carmelo Anthony has a player option that year, and could very well opt for free agency. Amare and Tyson Chandler will also be an expiring contracts at that point, and could be moved. There's no guarantee the core of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler will still be intact at that point, and I can easily see a scenario where Knicks fans have turned on Carmelo and he looks for a deal elsewhere.
It's official now, the Knicks will not be matching and Lin will be a Rocket.
https://twitter.com/HowardBeckNYT/status/225320171240308736
James Dolan finds yet another way to make being a fan of this franchise miserable.
https://twitter.com/HowardBeckNYT/status/225320171240308736
James Dolan finds yet another way to make being a fan of this franchise miserable.
Exactly. It's driving me nuts when the mainstream media is saying Lin is costing the team $30m in year 3. It's everyone's contract that will be costing them when they're over the luxury tax. Moving one of Anthony, Stoudemire or Chandler is also an option as well as just giving Lin away (the likelihood of him being bad enough to not get rid of is small). I think not matching is a big mistake.
If Coon is right, then I can't understand how the Knicks wouldn't do this. Sure, this could be a basketball decision as much as a $$$'s one, but that doesn't really fly as Lin is an upgrade (or at least more potential) over their current crop of PGs. Then again, maybe they got nervous about the chemistry between Melo and Lin. Regardless, give this team (w/Lin) a couple of years to see if they can make it work. If not, cut him and move on with a less damaging tax figure. Are the Knicks simply this incompetent or is Coon wrong?
Coon is right. The reports are that the Knicks are choosing not to match not for financial reasons, but because James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are angry that Jeremy Lin used Houston to get such a big deal. In other words, James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are mad that Jeremy Lin took part in the free agent process as agreed upon by the owners and the players association last summer.
They just let a valuable asset leave for nothing. Out of spite.
You gotta be kidding me. But I still believe that, despite the reports, the Knicks could still sign him. It just makes zero sense. Yes, I know its the Knicks.
I wish I was.
But unfortunately I'm not. Really, really glad they signed Jason Kidd to mentor Jeremy Lin now. Also, maybe if Mike Woodson hadn't told reporters Lin was the starter and a Knicks source hadn't told Marc Stein that they would "Match any offer up to a billion dollars", Houston wouldn't have reworked the deal to increase the poison pill.
At any point during this process they could have a) used the bird rights they gained through the arbitrator to re-sign him in the same manner they did Steve Novak, or b) agreed to work on a sign and trade with Houston in the same manner that Portland and Minnesota have been for Batum. Instead, the told everybody exactly what their plan was and then got angry when an opposing GM took advantage of that.
I'm truly baffled by how the Knicks have played this. Or allowed this to play out, as perhaps a more passive voice is appropriate. Both in terms of on-court and franchise value, I think they're worse off now. And since "optics" is the buzzword du jour in politics, it has me thinking about the optics here. To casual Knicks fans, and even people who typically couldn't care less about the Knicks but were swept up in Linsanity last year, this is going to come off as ownership screwing the pooch yet again, and give them yet another reason to tune them out, especially with the new kids in town.
Yep, this is the complete opposite of the (good) Theo strategy of set a price for a player that you're willing to pay and walk away if it is too high.
If the Knicks had done any of that prep work they could have at least ended up with a future second round pick and some cash from Houston (at a minimum). Instead they're left with nothing but a bad taste in their mouth. NY Knick Basketball!
When I read shit like this I am relieved that Dolan didn't win the right to buy the Red Sox. Putting up with the Dentist and Lucky is a small price to pay for everything else.
Five reasons James Dolan is an idiot.
1.) The "Poison Pill" - WHO GIVES A SHIT. The first two years the contract pays reasonably, the final years it pays an absurd amount...except that final year would be an expiring contract anyway. We have seen time and time again in this league, exorbitant expiring contracts can be useful trading pieces. Either Lin lives up to the hype and the deal works out, or you pay him reasonably for two years and then make something happen with an expiring. Plus if he gets injured, the new CBA has provisions for restructuring. AND Nate Silver was reporting that word of Knicks not re-signing Lin caused MSG stock to drop some $50 million dollars...how does letting a guy walk because you're terrified of paying him 40 million make sense if just by leaving you're losing out on 50? It is VERY telling that the team with most firsthand experience with a Chinese Star was the one most willing to spend on Lin--the Rockets know better than anyone how international dollars can help a team's bottom line. How the fuck does an owner willing to overpay the likes of Curry and Marbury for years and years, suddenly get cold feet at the thought of paying a surefire moneymaker?
2.) The Nets are moving to New York this year. They will be literally like 25 minutes away, and their team is likely going to be as good or better than the Knicks. So of course Dolan lets go of the one Knicks player the entire city loves who's guaranteed to attract attention and sell tickets. Brilliant.
3.) Felton is fat, and assuming his one good 54 game stretch is somehow his "norm" is idiotic. Kidd is an old man. The odds are very good the Knicks now have one of the worst pg rotations in the East.
4.) Amar'e is untradable and the Knicks aren't moving Melo, so it's not like they have the flexibility to make room for some other marquee free agent in the near future. Like it or not, this is pretty much their team for the next few years. Their choice was "do we want this team with Lin running the show, or Felton" and they opted for Felton
5.) Dolan supposedly was acting out of spite because he felt Lin had screwed the Knicks and wasn't properly "grateful." This makes no sense. Jeremy Lin has earned like a million dollars total in salary, and neither he nor anyone else has any idea what will happen in the future. It would be stupid for him NOT to try to make as much as he can, and if Dolan was expecting a Harvard Econ major to be stupid about money he was sorely mistaken. And Lin didn't "owe" the Knicks anything--the only reason he got any playing time at all was because of a fluke series of injuries. For Dolan to act like the very act of signing Lin to be a practice player and then putting him in when other players got injured, somehow entitled him to extraordinary loyalty and an expectation that Lin wouldn't go for the best deal is...is DUMB.
JAMES DOLAN IS STUPID.
1.) The "Poison Pill" - WHO GIVES A SHIT. The first two years the contract pays reasonably, the final years it pays an absurd amount...except that final year would be an expiring contract anyway. We have seen time and time again in this league, exorbitant expiring contracts can be useful trading pieces. Either Lin lives up to the hype and the deal works out, or you pay him reasonably for two years and then make something happen with an expiring. Plus if he gets injured, the new CBA has provisions for restructuring. AND Nate Silver was reporting that word of Knicks not re-signing Lin caused MSG stock to drop some $50 million dollars...how does letting a guy walk because you're terrified of paying him 40 million make sense if just by leaving you're losing out on 50? It is VERY telling that the team with most firsthand experience with a Chinese Star was the one most willing to spend on Lin--the Rockets know better than anyone how international dollars can help a team's bottom line. How the fuck does an owner willing to overpay the likes of Curry and Marbury for years and years, suddenly get cold feet at the thought of paying a surefire moneymaker?
2.) The Nets are moving to New York this year. They will be literally like 25 minutes away, and their team is likely going to be as good or better than the Knicks. So of course Dolan lets go of the one Knicks player the entire city loves who's guaranteed to attract attention and sell tickets. Brilliant.
3.) Felton is fat, and assuming his one good 54 game stretch is somehow his "norm" is idiotic. Kidd is an old man. The odds are very good the Knicks now have one of the worst pg rotations in the East.
4.) Amar'e is untradable and the Knicks aren't moving Melo, so it's not like they have the flexibility to make room for some other marquee free agent in the near future. Like it or not, this is pretty much their team for the next few years. Their choice was "do we want this team with Lin running the show, or Felton" and they opted for Felton
5.) Dolan supposedly was acting out of spite because he felt Lin had screwed the Knicks and wasn't properly "grateful." This makes no sense. Jeremy Lin has earned like a million dollars total in salary, and neither he nor anyone else has any idea what will happen in the future. It would be stupid for him NOT to try to make as much as he can, and if Dolan was expecting a Harvard Econ major to be stupid about money he was sorely mistaken. And Lin didn't "owe" the Knicks anything--the only reason he got any playing time at all was because of a fluke series of injuries. For Dolan to act like the very act of signing Lin to be a practice player and then putting him in when other players got injured, somehow entitled him to extraordinary loyalty and an expectation that Lin wouldn't go for the best deal is...is DUMB.
JAMES DOLAN IS STUPID.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/basketball/nba/07/18/jeremy-lin-exclusive/index.html
That article pretty much cements for me how badly the front office blew this. It's one thing to decide, financially, that they couldn't afford him and to deal him to get pieces back. But it's another thing altogether to publicly state that they would match and watch that lead to a larger offer that they "couldn't afford". There's no reason at all for Dolan and Grunwald to be bitter towards Lin; they blew this, and now have a worse team on the floor, and are paying the tax anyhow.
http://blacksportson...ond-Felton1.jpg
Ray Felton is honestly looking pretty hefty these days
and that's not a good sign, considering the Knicks just handed him a 4 year deal coming off the worst season of his career (which was also a contract year). What incentive does this guy have to work? He needs to lose like 40 lbs.
Ray Felton is honestly looking pretty hefty these days
and that's not a good sign, considering the Knicks just handed him a 4 year deal coming off the worst season of his career (which was also a contract year). What incentive does this guy have to work? He needs to lose like 40 lbs.
About a month ago I believe. Granted he could have slimmed down some since then, but he looks like he honestly has a ways to go.
Smith is SUCH a NY schill...
http://espn.go.com/n...eremy-lin-great
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/botched-linsanity-knicks_n_1684476.html
http://espn.go.com/n...eremy-lin-great
Dolan TOLD HIM TO GO SEE WHAT THE MARKET WOULD GIVE HIM! If he made a preemptive offer, ANY offer, maybe Lin never even gets that offer sheet from Houston. Clearly he wanted to stay in NY.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/botched-linsanity-knicks_n_1684476.html
He signed the only offer he received from any team.
The offer was altered because the Knicks made their plans to match it public.
Dolan is an idiot, and Steven A. Smith and Frank Isola and everybody else carrying MSG's water on this story are hacks.
The offer was altered because the Knicks made their plans to match it public.
Dolan is an idiot, and Steven A. Smith and Frank Isola and everybody else carrying MSG's water on this story are hacks.
I saw the headline this AM and took it literally. Felton has a bag of doritos on his shoulder. And in his gym bag. And in his locker.
Rasheed Wallace has reportedly come out of retirement and will sign with the Knicks, giving the Knicks far and away the best roster of 2003.
http://sports.yahoo....30515--nba.html
http://sports.yahoo....30515--nba.html
Are the Knicks trying to have the oldest NBA team of all time? Kidd, Camby, Thomas, Wallace. Because if we have established anything recently it's that the nba is an old mans game not these young pups.
Edit Oh and this prigioni guy who is a 35 year old MBA rookie...
If Isaiah back? If he is I can at least just throw my hands up and walk away
Edit Oh and this prigioni guy who is a 35 year old MBA rookie...
If Isaiah back? If he is I can at least just throw my hands up and walk away
Rasheed Wallace was an interersting Celtic. Doc gave Rasheed every opportunity to be a significant part of the team, with his fines and lack of conditioning, played to about 60% of ability and experience. IMHO the Brooklyn Nets will become more successful iin shorter period . The most impressive move the Nets made this offseason was not to sell its future to Dwight Howard. Both the Knicks and the Nets need to build depth, not with just stars, as is seen from list above, again Knicks are trying to fill MSG with names from the past, not with a future.
They actually are the oldest NBA team of all time, assuming that Wallace signs.
Unfortunately I think EVERYONE saw this coming. It was just a question of when he'd break down. Knicks just can't catch a break. And on top of that, their roster construction for this season is abysmal.
http://espn.go.com/n...nee-sources-say
http://espn.go.com/n...nee-sources-say
Woodson will stubbornly start Kurt Thomas in Amare's spot, but the wise thing to do would be to shift Carmelo to the 4, where he was great last year when Amare was out, and use Felton and Kidd at the 1, and Brewer, Smith, Novak and White at the 2/3, and Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby, Chris Copeland, and Rasheed Wallace as depth behind Carmelo and Chandler.
Holy shit, how many injuries is this team going to sustain and how many DNP's will the rack up? And will the Knicks actually qualify for an injury roster exemption at some point?
Just seeing this now, what do you mean? They go three deep when everyone is healthy at both guard positions (Felton/Kidd/Prigioni and Shumpert/Smith/Brewer), Melo/Novak at SF, Chandler/Camby at C, and a bunch of options at PF even with Amar'e out (Melo to the 4 and playing small primarily, but also Kurt Thomas/Sheed/Copeland are all capable of 10 minutes).
I don't take early season NBA too seriously, and Miami didn't look especially interested tonight, but still a great win. I think especially with Amar'e out, the model for this Knicks team is the Iverson Sixers at their peak with Melo/Tyson in the Iverson/Mutumbo roles but hopefully more varied offensive firepower and a similar smothering D.
Kidd and Brewer are really helping this team as glue guys so far, making steals, deflecting balls, making the extra pass. Prigioni looks generally overmatched so far and is in danger of losing his minutes as other guys start to come back. Sheed looked very sharp in semi-garbage time today and may have earned some first-half minutes going forward.
First road game tomorrow in Philly, who will be looking for some revenge after a sleepy effort today (although presumably still without Bynum and Jason Richardson sprained his ankle today too).
First road game tomorrow in Philly, who will be looking for some revenge after a sleepy effort today (although presumably still without Bynum and Jason Richardson sprained his ankle today too).
I've been really impressed by the floor spacing and ball movement. I really like this team with Carmelo at the 4. Kidd's done some really nice things and they've shot the ball well and taken advantage of open looks.
More impressive though is the defense, which has picked up where they left off last year despite not having Shumpert or Camby yet.
Knicks about to go to 3-0 with another route of the Sixers. Defense again playing well (Sixers have 83 points with 90 seconds to play as I type this). They spread the scoring around, with 7 guys in double figures, including Rasheed Wallace. Pretty impressive start to the year.
Brewer with one of the better games of his career tonight, tying both his previous highs in 3 pointers made (3) and rebounds (10). He is still playing himself into shape too, I cannot wait to see him alongside Shumpert in a few months.
I definitely think he deserves more credit than I've given him in the past. The offense we've seen in the first 3 games is such a huge deviation from the ISO heavy system he ran in Atlanta and during the playoffs last year, Carmelo at the 4 makes their offense very dynamic; he's extremely efficient from the elbow (he was first in the league in PPP from the elbow last year) and much less efficient isolated 20 feet and out. The really big test is going to come when Stoudemire is back, because right now the offense's spacing is the result of defenses being forced to commit to collapsing on Anthony when he touches the ball at the elbow or in the post. He's been passing out of those positions extremely well, and for now at least, the guards are hitting the open looks they're getting as a result.
Woodson is going to have his work cut out for him trying to juggle minutes for this team if everyone ever gets healthy at the same time. Camby should be back next game and Sheed needs to keep playing as he's looked very good so far. Kurt Thomas can easily get bumped from the rotation, but when Amar'e and Shumpert come back, minute allotments will be tough. Maybe something like this?
Chandler-28
Melo-32
Brewer-24
Shumpert-24
Felton-28
Camby-10
Sheed-10
Amare-24
Novak-16
Smith-24
Kidd-20
DNP: Prigioni, Thomas, Copeland, White
An 11 man rotation is a lot, but maybe it makes sense with all of the older bench players.
Chandler-28
Melo-32
Brewer-24
Shumpert-24
Felton-28
Camby-10
Sheed-10
Amare-24
Novak-16
Smith-24
Kidd-20
DNP: Prigioni, Thomas, Copeland, White
An 11 man rotation is a lot, but maybe it makes sense with all of the older bench players.
I don't think you need to worry about that. Sheed, Camby, Kidd, Amare aren't gonna be healthy for too many games together.