J.D. Martinez: Hips Don't Lie

Petagine in a Bottle

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Eovaldi accepting the QO would be fantastic.

We have like $150M to play with next year. How would it be bad if we signed a top 10 starter in MLB (by fWAR) over ‘21-22 to a 1/$18M deal?
It would be less than ideal if he’s the injury prone pitcher he’s been for much of his career, such as what he’s given the Sox this year, and in ‘19. If he’s what he was in ‘21, yeah, it would be a steal.

It may be worth the risk, but I’m assuming an Eovaldi who accepts the QO isn’t one you want.

The SP market looks weak enough that he probably doesn’t accept one (unless he’s hurt, at which point it wouldn’t be offered) and can at least find a deal similar to Rodon or Syndergaard?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'll disagree. I think he would be offered a QO. I don't know if he would accept. I think, however, he'll be traded by the deadline.

As to Nate, he'd definitely be offered a QO and he'd definitely decline. That may be the only reason he's not traded by the deadline.
I think the Sox would offer it too since they need hitting and would have the money and it's only 1 year. I think the pick attached would end up possibly keeping him in Boston.
 

chawson

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It would be less than ideal if he’s the injury prone pitcher he’s been for much of his career, such as what he’s given the Sox this year, and in ‘19. If he’s what he was in ‘21, yeah, it would be a steal.

It may be worth the risk, but I’m assuming an Eovaldi who accepts the QO isn’t one you want.

The SP market looks weak enough that he probably doesn’t accept one (unless he’s hurt, at which point it wouldn’t be offered) and can at least find a deal similar to Rodon or Syndergaard?
Every single pitcher is injury prone. Luis Castillo was shut down in spring training with a sore throwing shoulder. Frankie Montas just missed three weeks with a strained right shoulder. Zack Wheeler and Julio Urias, two of the game’s most valuable pitchers, both started the season with velocity dips die to nagging injuries.

Eovaldi, one of baseball’s hardest throwing starters, had a hip issue and is building up arm strength again, likely coming back early because the rotation is wrecked. He’s only 32. Sorry to be so strident about it, but unless he needs another TJS there’s no way it wouldn’t be a good thing to bring him back another year at roughly the same rate. At one year there’s no real downside.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Even if the Sox somehow keep the team intact and JD turns it around and goes on a hot streak… I don’t think he should be offered arb. I suspect he’d take it and he’s looking more and more cooked. If hypothetical said “hot streak” occurs, I’d consider it likely a last one or few he’d still have in him for one or two more years but probably more cold streaks going forward.
 

Humphrey

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When he was going well a few weeks ago, showed just glimpses of power, sprayed the ball around the field, but not much more than that.

Now, possibly due to the back injury, he seems clueless.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If the Sox don't deal JD before the deadline for the best offer on the table, then I'll really be disappointed in this front office. He's not the key to a playoff run and isn't the middle of the order threat he used to be. Upgrade however you can with whatever value he has and move on. He's not part of the future, so rip the bandage off now.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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If the Sox don't deal JD before the deadline for the best offer on the table, then I'll really be disappointed in this front office. He's not the key to a playoff run and isn't the middle of the order threat he used to be. Upgrade however you can with whatever value he has and move on. He's not part of the future, so rip the bandage off now.
It takes two to tango. Is somebody going to want to give us anything of value for a DH with a back problem that has apparently sapped his power (and batting average for that matter), especially when he's owed several million dollars for the remainder of the season?
 

BaseballJones

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JD won’t fetch a ton but he’s still a good overall hitter that has championship pedigree. He’s be an upgrade for a lot of teams. He has some value and at this point given how the season is shaping up for this team, he has practically no value to Boston at this point.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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It takes two to tango. Is somebody going to want to give us anything of value for a DH with a back problem that has apparently sapped his power (and batting average for that matter), especially when he's owed several million dollars for the remainder of the season?
Value is subjective thing to judge, but I'm sure, as BJ said above, someone will take a chance on him as a bench bat for something that they can't use but isn't worthless.

It may not blow us away, but it won't be nothing.
 

nvalvo

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We're extremely likely to be under the CBT threshold next season, so I assume we're picking up the tab in exchange for better prospects.
 

Rovin Romine

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It takes two to tango. Is somebody going to want to give us anything of value for a DH with a back problem that has apparently sapped his power (and batting average for that matter), especially when he's owed several million dollars for the remainder of the season?
It depends obviously, but JD has hit very well at points this season. A team that trades for him now gets August and September, and can put him on the post-season roster. Maybe there's a discount due to the risk he's really power-sapped for good, or maybe not, given that players have ups and downs and JD has gone though cold streaks before. He's a solid rental.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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being under the CBT is irrelevant, JD‘s contract is up. Subsidizing the remaining two months has nothing to do with it.
I could be wrong, but I think nvalvo was referring to the idea that the Sox trade enough salary away to get under the threshold for this year. The implication being that they could go ahead and stay over the threshold this season if it means getting better prospects, then dip back under to reset penalties next season.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I could be wrong, but I think nvalvo was referring to the idea that the Sox trade enough salary away to get under the threshold for this year. The implication being that they could go ahead and stay over the threshold this season if it means getting better prospects, then dip back under to reset penalties next season.
Hmmm .. I was under the impression they were already under it this year?

edit … and I would be wrong … Cots has us at about 12m over … in which case JD‘s remaining salary is only relevant if they can’t dump enough to get under the threshold.

edit#2 .. trading two of JD, Vazquez, Eovaldi and Wacha would seem to accomplish that ? Mind you, I’d trade those savings to get rid of the Bradley and Barnes contracts.
 
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RedOctober3829

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I could be wrong, but I think nvalvo was referring to the idea that the Sox trade enough salary away to get under the threshold for this year. The implication being that they could go ahead and stay over the threshold this season if it means getting better prospects, then dip back under to reset penalties next season.
That’s where I’m at now. If they aren’t a true contender, sell off to get under the tax then spend again this offseason. That is, if ownership commits to doing it.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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That’s where I’m at now. If they aren’t a true contender, sell off to get under the tax then spend again this offseason. That is, if ownership commits to doing it.
From other posts I've read on the board, getting under the Luxury Tax has implications for compensation draft picks if a QO-offered free agent leaves. Being under the LT nets a comp pick after the 2nd round; being over gets a pick after the 4th round.
 

RedOctober3829

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From other posts I've read on the board, getting under the Luxury Tax has implications for compensation draft picks if a QO-offered free agent leaves. Being under the LT nets a comp pick after the 2nd round; being over gets a pick after the 4th round.
Only player this could affect assuming JD/Nate/Vaz get traded is Bogaerts and I hope it doesn’t come to that.
 

nvalvo

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I could be wrong, but I think nvalvo was referring to the idea that the Sox trade enough salary away to get under the threshold for this year. The implication being that they could go ahead and stay over the threshold this season if it means getting better prospects, then dip back under to reset penalties next season.
Thank you. That is exactly what I was saying, albeit elliptically.

That’s where I’m at now. If they aren’t a true contender, sell off to get under the tax then spend again this offseason. That is, if ownership commits to doing it.
We're spending this offseason one way or another. We're going to have something like $100-120m in salary (with healthy error bars on that estimate pending arb raises, if they pick up JBJ's cheap team option, etc), a ton of holes (C, SS, DH, OF...), and a CBT threshold rising to $233m. So we're likely adding on the order of $100m in AAV next season one way or another. It would legitimately be difficult to go over the new threshold.

From other posts I've read on the board, getting under the Luxury Tax has implications for compensation draft picks if a QO-offered free agent leaves. Being under the LT nets a comp pick after the 2nd round; being over gets a pick after the 4th round.
This is a good point, but this is why we should trade (or extend) our departing players.
 

ZMart100

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The other draft advantage of being under the tax is it that signing players who got a QO from another team in the offseason costs fewer draft picks.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Thank you. That is exactly what I was saying, albeit elliptically.



We're spending this offseason one way or another. We're going to have something like $100-120m in salary (with healthy error bars on that estimate pending arb raises, if they pick up JBJ's cheap team option, etc), a ton of holes (C, SS, DH, OF...), and a CBT threshold rising to $233m. So we're likely adding on the order of $100m in AAV next season one way or another. It would legitimately be difficult to go over the new threshold.
This is a good point, but this is why we should trade (or extend) our departing players.
OMG - JBJ has a $12M mutual option with a $8M buyout. Are they actually going to pick that up? I think giving him $8M to go away is a better idea, but…yikes.
 

YTF

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No surprise the Red Sox are shopping J.D. Martinez, but asking price too high for a DH and there are no takers at this point.
To be fair, there haven't been any takers on the vast majority of guys who will be moved in the next two days. Also in the interest of fairness whatever team Martinez potentially goes to is likely going to be fine with him being strictly a DH as he's not played a single inning in the OF this season.
 

nvalvo

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OMG - JBJ has a $12M mutual option with a $8M buyout. Are they actually going to pick that up? I think giving him $8M to go away is a better idea, but…yikes.
Because the buyout is already priced into the AAV for the years that have been played, as I understand it JBJ's CBT hit would only be $4m, which is pretty decent for an OF5/veteran presence/good dude: a good role for him next season.
 

Bergs

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Because the buyout is already priced into the AAV for the years that have been played, as I understand it JBJ's CBT hit would only be $4m, which is pretty decent for an OF5/veteran presence/good dude: a good role for him next season.
Not as good a role as "playing somewhere else" would be.
 

E5 Yaz

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He won't be traded. We are destined to live out this season with what we have.
 

canderson

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Have to get this off my chest. Was at the game last night and JD put up four of the most uncompetitive and worthless at bats I’ve seen from one player in a long time. He‘s been bad for a while but at this point why is he even getting at bats? Give it … anyone … who needs some live pitching.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Have to get this off my chest. Was at the game last night and JD put up four of the most uncompetitive and worthless at bats I’ve seen from one player in a long time. He‘s been bad for a while but at this point why is he even getting at bats? Give it … anyone … who needs some live pitching.
Last night's 0-fer ended an eight game hit streak for JD (.294/.314/.441/.756 in 35 PA). He seems to have little to no pop left in his bat, but his issue hasn't been non-competitive at-bats, at least of late.
 

Archer1979

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Have to get this off my chest. Was at the game last night and JD put up four of the most uncompetitive and worthless at bats I’ve seen from one player in a long time. He‘s been bad for a while but at this point why is he even getting at bats? Give it … anyone … who needs some live pitching.
His hips may not be lying, but they're not showing up for work...

“I’m not using my hips as I once was,” Martinez explained. “And it’s not that they don’t work.”

He said he just isn’t firing his hips correctly. He said it’s all about “finding something that can get me to fire my hips correctly.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/08/boston-red-soxs-jd-martinez-explains-why-he-has-hit-just-10-homers-this-season-its-clear-as-day-to-me.html
 

jwbasham84

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Correct, up until last night he was hitting well enough that I thought if we DFAed him someone would come along and pick him up. Alas, we are not going to DFA him, so it doesn't matter.
 

grimshaw

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While the end hasn't gone well for him, I think this contract ended up being reasonable overall, even with the COVID season. Although fangraphs had him "earning" 82 of his 115 mill overall, he was the best hitter on a World Series winner, didn't OPS less than .881 in any of the 4 postseason series he played in and he ended up having two other good seasons.

DD did a great job waiting out Boras. If he hadn't - perhaps if they had to add another 25 mill or an extra year, we'd probably be looking at things differently. Seems like the type of guy who will be appreciated more, well after he's gone.
 

scottyno

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While the end hasn't gone well for him, I think this contract ended up being reasonable overall, even with the COVID season. Although fangraphs had him "earning" 82 of his 115 mill overall, he was the best hitter on a World Series winner, didn't OPS less than .881 in any of the 4 postseason series he played in and he ended up having two other good seasons.
He only made about 95m because of the covid season.
 

Daniel_Son

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While the end hasn't gone well for him, I think this contract ended up being reasonable overall, even with the COVID season. Although fangraphs had him "earning" 82 of his 115 mill overall, he was the best hitter on a World Series winner, didn't OPS less than .881 in any of the 4 postseason series he played in and he ended up having two other good seasons.

DD did a great job waiting out Boras. If he hadn't - perhaps if they had to add another 25 mill or an extra year, we'd probably be looking at things differently. Seems like the type of guy who will be appreciated more, well after he's gone.
Totally. He did a great job filling the larger-than-life size hole Ortiz left in the middle of the lineup for a few years.

Where do you guys think he ranks on the list of Red Sox DHs?
 

simplicio

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While the end hasn't gone well for him, I think this contract ended up being reasonable overall, even with the COVID season. Although fangraphs had him "earning" 82 of his 115 mill overall, he was the best hitter on a World Series winner, didn't OPS less than .881 in any of the 4 postseason series he played in and he ended up having two other good seasons.

DD did a great job waiting out Boras. If he hadn't - perhaps if they had to add another 25 mill or an extra year, we'd probably be looking at things differently. Seems like the type of guy who will be appreciated more, well after he's gone.
Also, by all accounts he's had a positive effect mentoring other hitters on the team, which doesn't show up in WAR.

As bad as he's been this year, he's still at a 117 WRC+; if that's the extent of the decline we have to see from him in a Sox uni the contract feels pretty successful.
 
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lexrageorge

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Not sure I agree 100% with that fangraphs estimate, although to be fair the 2020 season skews things. An 0.906 OPS over 4 non-2020 years seems worthy of at least $22-25M/year to me. Not sure we can quibble at all, and the contract is ending at the ideal time. Even if he has a bounce back year next season (unlikely given his hip issues), the team will be better served investing that money elsewhere.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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.811 OPS with 25 hits and 3 homers in Sept./Oct. (92 ABs), not counting today. Not a bad finish - just not sure it's worth a qualifying offer. Any idea what that is this year? $18 million?
They have money to burn and he could be a valuable trade chip, if nothing else, assuming he stays healthy and moderately productive. He can just DH/PH, even though it gives them less positional flexibility.
 

jon abbey

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.811 OPS with 25 hits and 3 homers in Sept./Oct. (92 ABs), not counting today. Not a bad finish - just not sure it's worth a qualifying offer. Any idea what that is this year? $18 million?
It's the mean of the top 125 salaries, probably around $18-19M again.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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They have money to burn and he could be a valuable trade chip, if nothing else, assuming he stays healthy and moderately productive. He can just DH/PH, even though it gives them less positional flexibility.
Time to just move on from JDM. He had a few great seasons and a few sub par seasons with the Sox. Helped bring the most recent WS title in. Almost got to a second WS last season.
He’s clearly deteriorating. Not worth the QO.
I never loved him like Manny or Papi… but he filled Ortiz’s shoes pretty well
 

scottyno

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Time to just move on from JDM. He had a few great seasons and a few sub par seasons with the Sox. Helped bring the most recent WS title in. Almost got to a second WS last season.
He’s clearly deteriorating. Not worth the QO.
I never loved him like Manny or Papi… but he filled Ortiz’s shoes pretty well
2022 wasn't really a sub par year in a vacuum, only because he was paid $19m, he's going to finish with an ops+ around 120. Pretty sure they'd be happy if whoever ends up being the 2023 DH does that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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2022 wasn't really a sub par year in a vacuum, only because he was paid $19m, he's going to finish with an ops+ around 120. Pretty sure they'd be happy if whoever ends up being the 2023 DH does that.
He had <1 bWAR going into today. Maybe I’m wrong, but weren’t you the guy claiming Schwarber was terrible value? He put up over 2 bWAR at $20M, no?

If you offer JD a QO, he seems 95% likely to accept it. QO’s go JD, Eovaldi, Wacha…lock up a lot of roster spots and really is just asking for a do over on this season with the same cast?

This team underperformed…the path to improvement is returning the same team? It’s not the worst idea if Bloom and Co.think that bad luck and fluke injuries were the driving force behind this season but man, it may be an tough sell to the fan base and if it doesn’t work he will likely get canned.
 

scottyno

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He had <1 bWAR going into today. Maybe I’m wrong, but weren’t you the guy claiming Schwarber was terrible value? He put up over 2 bWAR at $20M, no?

If you offer JD a QO, he seems 95% likely to accept it. QO’s go JD, Eovaldi, Wacha…lock up a lot of roster spots and really is just asking for a do over on this season with the same cast?

This team underperformed…the path to improvement is returning the same team? It’s not the worst idea if Bloom and Co.think that bad luck and fluke injuries were the driving force behind this season but man, it may be an tough sell to the fan base and if it doesn’t work he will likely get canned.
Well yeah, I wouldn't offer him a QO because he probably won't be worth 19m next year, but that doesn't mean necessarily moving on.
 

JM3

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They have money to burn and he could be a valuable trade chip, if nothing else, assuming he stays healthy and moderately productive. He can just DH/PH, even though it gives them less positional flexibility.
He didn't have any trade value at $19.4m this year. Couldn't imagine he'll have trade value at a similar # next year.

But yeah, if he wants to stick around for much less? Sure, maybe.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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He didn't have any trade value at $19.4m this year. Couldn't imagine he'll have trade value at a similar # next year.

But yeah, if he wants to stick around for much less? Sure, maybe.
He didn't have any trade value because he was having a terrible year. But he flipped it a bit in the last month. Might be a sign that he's finally back to where he needed to be, physically.