I remember a big thread back in the day debating the merits of trading for AK-47 when Utah put him on the block. He was a legitimately great player at his apex. We got Garnett instead so it all worked out I guess.
Ivan's Kevin Love Fantasy
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
[tablegrid= Kirilenko vs. Love ]Cellar-Door said:
Note Kirilenko having more assists than Love despite touching the ball fewer times. Higher assist rate, more steals and blocks all lead to higher percentage shots for other players, thus higher TS% for four of the five players wutang cited.
Sprowl said:
Not to add to your workload but you may want to take out the Love discussion from the stats thread as well. luckiestman loves to love you baby...
By that rational, now that Kirilenko is gone, shouldn't the Wolves have reverted back to their pre-Kirilenko levels? Why, this year, are they on pace to win far more than last year's Kirilenko led 31 wins?wutang112878 said:
Massive. Original poster lost me at #3 however. He's a west coast guy and loud whispers have him wanting to return back out west. Boston is not west.Brickowski said:
Grin&MartyBarret said:
A bench of Chase Budinger, Alexey Shved and Ronny Turiaf? The beast that is Kevin Martin? Corey Brewer's shiny dome?
MakMan44 said:
I watch too much NBA. Its a disease, and the only cure is more J.J. Barea.
That said, I think people fail to see how thin on talent the T-Wolves are and have been.
I like Pekovic and Kevin Martin is pretty solid. And I know that Rubio is a good ball-handler and passer. However his defense was over-hyped and his shooting has been worse than advertised - and most folks thought he would struggle to generate offense in the NBA. In short, he really isn't deserving of being an NBA starter given his performance to date. Corey Brewer is having a decent season statistically but the guy really isn't anything other than a bench player masquerading as a starter.
So aside from a serviceable big man and a decent wing, Love has no legit Robin or Batman or even anything resembling a star-level player to help him out. He never has and I think the Love-haters are completely overlooking just how bad his supporting cast, save for Kirilenko, has been. Frankly, I am amazed that they are three games below .500 in a deep West.
I disagree that Rubio's defense is overhyped. If anything, his defense may be on a level to almost justify his struggles shooting the ball.
But I obviously have a different read as to what's going on with the Wolves than you, given my Love-thesis.
But I obviously have a different read as to what's going on with the Wolves than you, given my Love-thesis.
I'm not a Wolves fan either, but I follow their games a bit. They're fun to watch and I listen to Zach Harper's podcast/follow him on Twitter so I get a lot of exposure to them. (Similarly, I pay more attention to the Nuggets than they deserve because Matt Moore's a regular on that podcast too.)MakMan44 said:
Back to Kirilenko for a second, he is still an impact player when he plays. BKN is 15-7 this year when he plays (.682, projecting to 56-26 over a full season), 9-20 when he doesn't (.310, projecting to 25-57 over a full season).
Not really, it was in the middle of a fluff piece where everyone said nice things. I have no doubts that with cap space and the right situation Boston can sign an A list guy. I'm just sure it's not the guy from Santa Monica that wants to play in front of his home crowd.PedroKsBambino said:
nighthob said:
I think there's pretty much zero chance he ends up in Boston. And I'm not sure they could build a winning team around him given his own gaps (though depends on the other pieces, obviously). But still----Alive! It beats the current reality of this team
Durant's quotes were much more encouraging, frankly. His was the only non-pablum quote in the piece (because he seemed genuinely impressed by how diehard a sports town Boston is and how the crowd reacted to Perkins when he made his return to the Garden).
God, I would love if Durant comes to Boston after blowing several title runs in Oklahoma City and becomes the league's biggest heel for a year before he wins a title and everyone embraces him again.
In other words, the Lebron James scenario.
In other words, the Lebron James scenario.
Cleveland did nothing but support LeBron and bend over backwards to try to put a team around him. The owners and the fans of the thunder stole a team from another city (Durant was a Sonic), they deserve to have bad things happen to them.Devizier said:
If Durant leaves it will be considered justice and only Thunder fans and children will think he's a heel.
This guy has Love ranked 4th this season in adjusted plus-minus (behind LBJ, Durant and Curry).
http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/2014-aspm/
The guy appears to be a nut case, and a few of the results are screwy -- but unlike most +/- systems, he publishes his methodology, so I figured it was worth posting.
http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/2014-aspm/
The guy appears to be a nut case, and a few of the results are screwy -- but unlike most +/- systems, he publishes his methodology, so I figured it was worth posting.
FWIW, I don't think he's a nut. I've corresponded with him a bunch, and ASPM is one of the flash points in the sabr-Kevin Love discussions, as it's usually considered the best box score stat in the business. The fact that it rates Love so well is one of the starting points about whether Love is overrated or not.
In other words, if ASPM didn't like Love, there would be a lot less mystery to what's going on.
In other words, if ASPM didn't like Love, there would be a lot less mystery to what's going on.
I said he was a nut because WorldNetDaily sits atop his recommended reading list. His plus-minus methodology may well be sound -- sure, DeAndre Jordan cracks the top 10, but he isn't the first guy to mysteriously shine in +/-, particularly in a limited sample size.bowiac said:
FWIW, ASPM is not +/-, it's a box score stat. It's just very sophisticated, but ultimately, not +/- based. The name is deceptive that way, which is why he notes "[SIZE=medium]A reminder: ASPM is not Adjusted Plus/Minus. ASPM is a box-score stat and has the limitations thereof."[/SIZE]maufman said:
Simmon's latest on Love. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-bag-volume-1/
Seems like a no brainer to me for the C's. Not the worst haul for the Wolves if he is just going to walk.
Seems like a no brainer to me for the C's. Not the worst haul for the Wolves if he is just going to walk.
The flipside is resigning Love and Rondo so you have them when this team can contend. If both want max deals, and neither are true max guys, then you probably cant win a title with those on the books.
I'm one of the bigger Kevin Love skeptics out there, and even I don't doubt he's worthy of a max deal.
Rondo's more of a wait and see situation. I also think it may be salient that the single player most similar to Ricky Rubio in the league may be Rajon Rondo (their initials are both even RR), so I'm not necessarily super eager to pair those two guys up given how things have gone.
Rondo's more of a wait and see situation. I also think it may be salient that the single player most similar to Ricky Rubio in the league may be Rajon Rondo (their initials are both even RR), so I'm not necessarily super eager to pair those two guys up given how things have gone.
Rudy Pemberton said:
I'm not sure I can think of a player in recent memory who opinions vary more widely on than Rondo. Some people are convinced he's a max guy, top 15 type player, and others out there thing he's basically a league average point guard. I mean, Simmons calls him top 15-20, and an Eastern Conference scout anonymously says this:
The 40th thing is obviously hyperbolic, but there really is a huge gap in how people perceive Rondo.
Yup. I love a lot of things about Rondo's game, but don't see him as a top 15 to 20 player. It seems to me like the consensus on him is that he is a fine 2nd/3rd piece for a title contender but not a lead dog. That does not jibe with him being in the 15 to 20 range.Grin&MartyBarret said:
bowiac said:
Well please expand on this. From a comparable contract standpoint, yes there are contracts out there that would justify Love getting the max. When I say he and Rondo dont deserve the max, by that I mean through the lens of building a title winning team I dont think they can both have max contracts on your team and you can build a team around them that can win a title.
The only way I can see that happening is if you get a 3rd max guy who is truly an elite scorer like say Durant, and then you can fill out the rest of your roster with $20M in payroll which probably necessitates having a good starter on a very team friendly deal (like Perk back in the day) or on a rookie deal. Thats very difficult to pull off
There's a platonic rubric of the player people want at every position, that if a player meets/exceeds that rubric, can often cause him to be overrated. I think Rondo fits that category at PG, since he gets so many assists, and isn't that really what you want out of your PG? I think Omer Asik may be the center equivalent of this, where people love the rebounds and reputation for rim protection so much that they overlook his limitations. I think Joe Johnson may have once been that at shooting guard, but people have gotten so down on chuckers that that's no longer the case.
These guys aren't bad players, but I think they're overrated is all.
These guys aren't bad players, but I think they're overrated is all.
I don't think they should give Rondo the max. The two are unrelated, or maybe even actively a bad mix. I'd want to get Love (if he could be re-signed), and trade Rondo for assets, as I think he's surprisingly easily replaced. I don't think that's super plausible obviously - Love isn't likely to come here without other pieces in place.wutang112878 said:
I think Rondo is particularly hard to rate as a player, because he's very good in the abstract, but he has so many limitations that he needs to be in the perfect situation to live up to that potential. He's a great passer, rebounder (for a point guard), and he can score. But, he's useless off the ball, so you can't really pair him with a ball-dominant two guard. You wouldn't want to pair Rondo with Kobe, for example. He's not a terrible defensive player, but his long arms and inability to stay in front of quicker guys make him better suited to defending the two, so ideally you want a backcourt partner who can cross-match on defense. And he kills floor spacing, so at least one of your big men really needs to be a threat out to 20 feet or so (ideally both).
The problem is, he needs a team built around his particular skill set to really thrive, but he's not quite good enough to justify doing so. I think he'd be a great fit with Kevin Love though. The key would be finding someone to play the 2 to make it all work, a shot creator who could also play off the ball and defend point guards. I don't think Goran Dragic is walking through that door.
The problem is, he needs a team built around his particular skill set to really thrive, but he's not quite good enough to justify doing so. I think he'd be a great fit with Kevin Love though. The key would be finding someone to play the 2 to make it all work, a shot creator who could also play off the ball and defend point guards. I don't think Goran Dragic is walking through that door.
bowiac said:
Do you think you could win a title on a team where Love has a max deal? I really think he would have to be paired with a top 5 player to do it, or be on a team in Indy where the depth of their starting 5 is absolutely amazing. I just think it makes it difficult to build a team around him.
CreightonGubanich said:
In the half court, I agree with what you are saying. However, its unclear if an all offense, no defense team can win a title but.... If you put Rondo on an uptempo fast break style team he would absolutely thrive, like look the best he has ever looked thrive. He would finally be put in the best position to use his speed which is an elite skill of his. It also highlights his rebounding because he can start the break without an outlet pass when he rebounds the ball. Those probably wouldnt all be true fast breaks, there would be a lot of 'fast possession, not allowing the defense to get organized' situations in there, but you get the point.
Isn't this true of any player other than perhaps LeBron/Durant? They either need a pair of top guys, or they need to be on a team where the depth of their starting 5 is absolutely amazing.wutang112878 said:
I mean, are you just saying only those two guys deserve max deals? I'll note, even that's generous, as Durant hasn't won, and LeBron did it with two other top ~12 players.
Love is a max player. Bowiac is right. In the NBA, to win a championship you need to not have just one top 10 player, you need 2 or even 3. With a few exceptions (2004 Pistons, the Mavs etc.) every NBA champion has had more than one elite player.
I think Love is kind of getting a bad rap in Minnesota. He has constantly been working with a bogus front-office and his team is rarely healthy. Could he play in Boston with Rondo? I like to think so. Imagine the great Love to Rondo outlet passes! If a starting lineup was put together with Rondo, a 3s and D shooting guard, an athletic small forward (Deng?) Love, and a capable, defensive minded center, the Celtics could really have something.
I think Love is kind of getting a bad rap in Minnesota. He has constantly been working with a bogus front-office and his team is rarely healthy. Could he play in Boston with Rondo? I like to think so. Imagine the great Love to Rondo outlet passes! If a starting lineup was put together with Rondo, a 3s and D shooting guard, an athletic small forward (Deng?) Love, and a capable, defensive minded center, the Celtics could really have something.
bowiac said:
Yeah, you're right. I guess my hangup is that he cant be your best player, but he can be part of a core trio, its just that the core trio has to be really good. I could see some combinations like a high scoring Love / Curry / Harden combo working, or Love / Marc Gasol / George where Gasol compensates for Loves defense, or Love / Rose / George
As for the max deals, I'm saying a fraction of the guys that get max deals actually deserve. Here are the players in bbref's top 30 salaries that dont deserve the max: Amare, Joe Johnson, Pau Gasol, Bosh, Gay, Zach Randolph, Pierce, Boozer, Brook Lopez, Okafor, Eric Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyson Chandler and Danny Granger, thats roughly 50% of them, and those are somewhat crippling deals. So when you hand out one of these deals, you should be really careful and make sure you only give it to guys that really, really deserve it.
To be fair, Pau signed that deal early into the 2009-2010 season. Pau was a double-double machine, was huge in the Lakers in the championship season and really only fell apart because the Lakers hired the wrong coach twice and Kobe got hurt. Not really his fault.
Also, the guys that got maxed deals were hardly on the level that Love is right now. Really only Pau and Bosh were as good as Love is right now when they signed. It just goes to show that way too many people get max deals.
Also, the guys that got maxed deals were hardly on the level that Love is right now. Really only Pau and Bosh were as good as Love is right now when they signed. It just goes to show that way too many people get max deals.
Other than Pau and Bosh, most of these guys got their deals with their team bidding against nobody. In some cases it's just a single team being dumb (Amar'e), in other cases it's a team with Bird rights giving a guy money just because (Lopez, Joe Johnson, Gordon).wutang112878 said:
Like I said before, I'm not a huge Love fan (i.e. I think he's like the 10th best player), but Kliq is right that he's better than most of these guys were they signed their deals.
Kliq said:
Fast forward 5 years...
To be fair, Love signed that deal early in the 2014/15 season when he was a rebounding machine and looked great playing next to whoever. Thing really only fell apart because he wasnt in a perfect situation, its really not his fault.
You can write that narrative for a lot of guys on that list. If you are truly an elite player, regardless of what happens around you throughout the duration of your deal you should pretty much justify your contract, but its a 50/50 split when these deals are handed out
bowiac said:
My only point is that when max deals are given out, it seems only half the time it was justified. I dont think that conflicts with anything you just said
I just meant that Love is closer to being a "feeding frenzy" max guy like LeBron or Dwight Howard (probably the best comp I have for him) than being a max guy "by default" like Joe Johnson.wutang112878 said:
Harden is probably a good comp for you. I remember the debate we had here on whether or not he was a max guy, and I firmly said he wasnt, egg on face.
I think it could go either way with Love, if he resigns with Minny and suddenly plays with less effort he will look a lot like Joe Johnson and talk about remember when. Thats the thing with the guys who arent truly elite and sign max deals, if they become complacent suddenly we see all their warts that their effort was hiding.
I think it could go either way with Love, if he resigns with Minny and suddenly plays with less effort he will look a lot like Joe Johnson and talk about remember when. Thats the thing with the guys who arent truly elite and sign max deals, if they become complacent suddenly we see all their warts that their effort was hiding.
Melo is a good comp for the purposes of the value discussion. Both are clearly max players and the real debate is, are they elite, can lead you to a championship, players or are they just really really good players who still deserve a max deal but probably can't be the best player on a championship team. In both cases, I side with the latter group.