IT's season is over

lovegtm

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Yes, about $20m. But that wouldn't be all hat substantial if you hand IT $30M and then have to consider resigning guys coming up.
Exactly--the salary cap and luxury tax look really far away when all your guys are on rookie contracts and cheap extensions, but life gets real in a hurry once those 3-4 $4M/year guys you were getting production from start getting $17M/year offers from the Nets.
 

smastroyin

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Not sure I'd go Ewing theory.

In the end, it seems like IT has been injured for a while, and trying to play through it. Plus he had oral surgery already this playoffs. The point I'm getting to is that he hasn't been 100% at least for the first two games of the ECF. But, he was still playing, so you still play as if he were healthy. So at the end of the day, you're better off playing with your bench guys healthy, and not planning around them, than to have 75% IT. On defense, an IT that has to avoid bodying up, can't pivot and switch quickly while also giving up height and length may as well not even be on the floor - you're playing 5 on 4 and you can't survive that against Cleveland.

I guess you could also argue that LeBron thought he could take a night off and still beat the Celtics as long as IT wasn't playing.

Regardless, as presently constructed, I don't think the Celtics are better without IT and it could be a dangerous conclusion from one game regardless.
 
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BaseballJones

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My thoughts on IT are this - of course they're unfounded as I have no inside information. I agree with smas, that IT was likely injured for a few games and played through it. He's a pretty ball-dominant player and when you're running your offense through a ball-dominant player who is hurt and ineffective, well, that's not a good way to get positive results. It doesn't excuse the poor shooting by other Celtics players, but I think smas' post above this one is pretty spot on.

It turned out that a healthy - and surprisingly hot - Smart getting the majority of minutes in place of IT was much better than having an injured IT trying to gut it out. That may change if Smart goes 3-13 in game four, which, sadly, is a distinct possibility.

I don't think the Celtics are better off without a healthy Thomas. They do appear to be better off without an injured and ineffective Thomas, however. Especially on the defensive end.
 

Van Everyman

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Regardless, as presently constructed, I don't think the Celtics are better without IT and it could be a dangerous conclusion from one game regardless.
Not as dangerous a conclusion as IT was 75% of his regular self during the first two games. Hard to know for sure how much was CLE's scheme but I'd say more like 30-40%.

Notwithstanding last night's barn burner, I'd still take 75% of IT for the rest of the playoffs (which is what I think we've had him at for a while). Maybe off the bench but I'd rather have that in reserve than not.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There is always the "first game without the star" version of the Ewing theory in the NBA. Both the Warriors and Cavs took their foot off the petal in their respective Game 3's. The Spurs had every opportunity to do what the C's did last night when they were given open looks all night but didn't capitalize as Mills, Green, and Simmons shot a combined 2-13 behind the arc and Manu can only give you so many minutes. Last night the Celtics weathered the Kevin Love Storm, took advantage of the Cavs relaxing, and unlike the Spurs the night before knocked down their shots.

Marcus Smart had the game of his life shooting the ball replacing Isaiah in this aspect for one night. It was a great night but we all know that isn't sustainable from Smart nor will the Cavs be sleepwalking through most of the night during Games 4 & 5. One noticeable difference was that the Celtics could compete defensively as opposed to the Cavs playing 5-on-4 when Isaiah is out there against these Cavs. Hiding him on JR is one thing but not having an elite rotational defender at that position showed bigly in the first two games when Isaiah's limitations were present on that end of the floor, with or without a healthy hip.

Fultz has all the tools to bring both in a few years. Exciting times 2020 and beyond for this organization.
 

ALiveH

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I agree with pretty much everything in the recent posts, but another aspect of the Isaiah Thomas Experience is that this is not all that unexpected given the load he has to carry, the style of play necessary for him to be effective and the increased physicality in the playoffs. In coming years it should only get worse with age and accumulating injuries. I am starting to come to the conclusion that he needs to be under about 30 MPG, not 34 MPG to make it through a season and the playoffs. I think he needs to have a hear-to-heart with Ainge and Stephens to see if he's willing to accept that diminished role. He might be too proud and too good to do so, which could be the path towards trading him away at the trade deadline next year (for a good big or a future unprotected lottery pick+).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I agree with pretty much everything in the recent posts, but another aspect of the Isaiah Thomas Experience is that this is not all that unexpected given the load he has to carry, the style of play necessary for him to be effective and the increased physicality in the playoffs. In coming years it should only get worse with age and accumulating injuries. I am starting to come to the conclusion that he needs to be under about 30 MPG, not 34 MPG to make it through a season and the playoffs. I think he needs to have a hear-to-heart with Ainge and Stephens to see if he's willing to accept that diminished role. He might be too proud and too good to do so, which could be the path towards trading him away at the trade deadline next year (for a good big or a future unprotected lottery pick+).
It has been well reported that Isaiah wants to be PAID in his next contract which is his right. If he's looking for anything close to what he is eligible for than Ainge is better off trading him sooner rather than later which he probably will over paying him anything close to what he'd want.....the problem now is the hip. If surgery is required you're talking missing the start of next season and for an explosive 5-8 player this injury is something that could result in us having already seen the best of Isaiah Thomas the basketball player. Quick, does Billy King have a new gig yet?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Another thing with IT4 is he makes so little his contract would be hard to trade for talent without taking more salary back. He makes even less than Avery Bradley. Of course, you could always package him with Tyler Zeller.

I wonder if Houston would trade Capela. I doubt it given his age and contract but he would a nice fit. AB would look good next to Harden. IT4 might too, although that would be a nightmare defensively especially without Capela. The Denver Nuggets are loaded with guards but I wonder if if they'd be interested in IT4 for his scoring. I doubt anyone here would really want Gallinari or Chandler back though. Murray, Harris and Mudiay don't really do much for us since we're loaded in guards. Juan Hernangomez would be an interesting piece too as would the 13th pick in the draft.

If the Celtics *do* sign Hayward, an IT4 or AB +Crowder+Zeller trade would would for Andre Drummond and the 12th pick in the draft. Seems like too much talent to give up and the 12th pick doesn't really offset it. Works salary wise though.

The 76ers seem like they'd be a perfect fit for IT4 but would they move Saric? Would that be enough? Ironically, if the Jazz lose out of Hayward they'd have a use for AB or IT4 but wouldn't have much to give outside of Favors.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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With the hip injury as well as his known limitations and impending free agency, Thomas' market is going to be very limited.

It's possible that someone like Orlando or New Orleans might have interest but the league knows what he is - half a brilliant player and the remainder a defensive liability. And now with a bad hip.

The Cs are probably one of the few teams that can offer Thomas what he is looking for in terms of money, scheme and environment. Both sides should explore an extension but Thomas is going to have to accept some hard realities one way or another over the next few seasons.
 

nighthob

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It has been well reported that Isaiah wants to be PAID in his next contract which is his right. If he's looking for anything close to what he is eligible for than Ainge is better off trading him sooner rather than later which he probably will over paying him anything close to what he'd want.....the problem now is the hip. If surgery is required you're talking missing the start of next season and for an explosive 5-8 player this injury is something that could result in us having already seen the best of Isaiah Thomas the basketball player. Quick, does Billy King have a new gig yet?
You know what would be hilarious? Boston sending Lil' Zeke to the Lakers for #2 and then putting together a package for Jimmy Butler built around the pick. And the Bulls drafting De'Aaron Fox. The ensuing LaVar Ball tweetstorm would be epic.
 

The Social Chair

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With the hip injury as well as his known limitations and impending free agency, Thomas' market is going to be very limited.

It's possible that someone like Orlando or New Orleans might have interest but the league knows what he is - half a brilliant player and the remainder a defensive liability. And now with a bad hip.

The Cs are probably one of the few teams that can offer Thomas what he is looking for in terms of money, scheme and environment. Both sides should explore an extension but Thomas is going to have to accept some hard realities one way or another over the next few seasons.
He's also a great box office and merchandise draw which would be appealing to a struggling market.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He's also a great box office and merchandise draw which would be appealing to a struggling market.
True which is why I mentioned Orlando or New Orleans. The problem is that he is a bit of a parlor trick for the former and they aren't likely to be competitive during the life of his contract.

A Pelicans team with him, Davis and Cousins is interesting. That said, if the smoke around this year's trade deadline is accurate, Thomas wanted nothing to do with playing alongside Boogie again.
 

JakeRae

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If the Celtics *do* sign Hayward, an IT4 or AB +Crowder+Zeller trade would would for Andre Drummond and the 12th pick in the draft. Seems like too much talent to give up and the 12th pick doesn't really offset it. Works salary wise though.
These things don't work together. If the Celtics sign Hayward, they have cut Zeller. To trade for Drummond and sign Hayward, the team would need to renounce everyone, trade Smart or Brown to clear cap space to sign Hayward, and then package all of IT, Bradley, and Crowder to put together enough salary for Drummond. Basically, there is no reasonable scenario where this works under the cap and makes remote sense as a basketball decision.
 

Eddie Jurak

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There's a part of me that would want them to pick up Drummond, but it is the old-fashioned part. I don't think he's a fit with the Celtics offense. Were he not a head case, Boogie would have been the perfect fit.
 

Van Everyman

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If the hip is as bad as it could be, I wonder if there is a role for IT as was originally conceived for him when he was traded here: as a super sixth man. Obviously, if he comes back right away next year and is more or less the same guy, that would be a tough pill for him to swallow after the season he just had.

But if he doesn't come back right away, and we get to see the difference with how competitive they are with him off the court, I wonder whether the combination of injury limiting his effectiveness and attractiveness on the market and a starting five that is more balanced with him off the court would give Danny and Brad the the case they need to keep him at a non-max contract.

Obviously, a bunch of things have to happen to make this work: his injury has to force him off the court, they have to be competitive enough with him off the court, he would have to agree to less money, AND they need 1-2 more FAs/elite talents to come to town. Thats a lot of ifs.

But lest we forget this is the same town where Kevin McHale came off the bench for the first five years of his career – and returned to it later in his career. And he was still a Hall of Famer.

For a guy who is 5'9" and takes a pounding, there is decidedly less money in going that route – but no shame, almost certainly a longer career and the potential to be the Boston legend IT supposedly pines to be.
 

BaseballJones

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This playoff series vs. the Cavs (and really all playoffs long) is, I think, providing us with interesting insight into IT's value. Clearly, when healthy, a terrific offensive player and definitely the character of a quality team leader.

But defensively, wow, such a liability. At least Harden, who has historically been a horrible defender, has natural size to compete if he just put his mind to defending. IT could have a defensive mindset but nothing on God's green earth is going to change the fact that he's 5'9" tall.

Seeing how much better the Celtics are defensively with him on the bench really is quite an eye-opener.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He might be too proud and too good to do so, which could be the path towards trading him away at the trade deadline next year (for a good big or a future unprotected lottery pick+).
DA is not getting a lottery pick, much less an unprotected one plus other things, for IT4, not now, not next month, not ever.

I mean he couldn't get one last year when he had two extremely valuable years left on his contract; he's not going to get one now that IT4 has a hip injury nor is he going to get one next year when he's about to be a FA.

Danny is going to let IT4 play out his contract. IT4 is going to be pissed but will still have to perform to get what he believes is due to him. The really interesting question is whether any GM is going to give him what he wants.

I suspect the answer is no. But some GM is going to give him something. I wonder whether that will be DA.
 
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GreenMonster49

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But lest we forget this is the same town where Kevin McHale came off the bench for the first five years of his career – and returned to it later in his career. And he was still a Hall of Famer.
As was John Havlicek.
 

JCizzle

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And those guys probably made less in their entire careers than IT will make in a quarter once he gets that next contract. As a competitor, I don't think there's any way he agrees to come off the bench after his performance this year - rightfully so.
 

BigSoxFan

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And those guys probably made less in their entire careers than IT will make in a quarter once he gets that next contract. As a competitor, I don't think there's any way he agrees to come off the bench after his performance this year - rightfully so.
He has every right to decline a bench role but if he does, he's a goner.
 

Van Everyman

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Let's give it time before we start suggesting IT is bullheaded or shortsighted – or that DA/BS are committed to him as nothing more than a bench player.

It's not like we've never seen what this team looks like offensively and defensively without IT. Last night was probably the best case scenario of us playing an elite team (read: CLE/GS/Spurs) without him. I mean, we were shooting something like 45% from 3-pt land without him in the second half IIRC.

All I was saying in my post upthread is that this injury may be a bit of a blessing in that it gives the team a chance to see what it is against elite competition and possibly during the fabled regular season we are built for without him. And perhaps it devalues IT enough to take the pressure of having to pay or trade him off a bit while Danny does his thing this offseason (before the injury I had yet to see a single trade proposal for IT that made the team better in the short- or long-term). It may even give Fultz an opportunity to get real minutes as a rookie if he's at all ready.
 

ifmanis5

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I hope we can put to bed the myth that the team is better off without him.
The question of whether he is a Max salary player and whether they should to build the team around him is a way more legit argument and should be hashed out on boards like this or in the media. It's a great sports argument. But those who called him a quitter or that the team was somehow hungrier without him need to reflect on why they would say that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/05/bulpett_danny_ainge_quite_happy_with_isaiah_thomas_and_al_horford

While nothing would surprise me with Danny, it sure sounds like it's unlikely that IT will end up being the odd man out.
I think it depends on what IT will take. In his benefit, he came out recently and said that he's not looking to renegotiate this contract this year and would rather the Cs spend the money on FAs - http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19473272/isaiah-thomas-okay-boston-celtics-spending-money-free-agency-extension. That could be more pragmatic than anything else (he's not getting an extension until his hip situation clears up) but it's good for him to acknowledge it.