It’s Mid January: Who do you think will be NBA Champs this year?

So?

  • Cavaliers

    Votes: 13 6.4%
  • Thunder

    Votes: 40 19.8%
  • Celtics

    Votes: 142 70.3%
  • Rockets

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Knicks

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • Grizzlies

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Magic

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Mavericks

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Nuggets

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 0.5%

  • Total voters
    202

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
These are the top teams as of now, or pick Other and say who you think will win. Teams listed by current win totals. Mavs and Magic have the same wins, but the Mavs were there last year, so they make the poll and Orlando does not, and Denver makes it because they are one behind in wins, but have a better winning percentage than the Magic
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,713
I said this recently but believe it to be true. Anyone can beat Boston on any given night, but very few teams can beat them four times out of seven. I think OKC could. I don't think Cleveland can, though I can see a very hard-fought and long series with them. I think the Knicks could be a real pain in the ass to play against. I'm not really worried about anyone else in the NBA.

I still think that, come playoff time, Boston is the team to beat. So I'm going with the Cs.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,703
I said this recently but believe it to be true. Anyone can beat Boston on any given night, but very few teams can beat them four times out of seven. I think OKC could. I don't think Cleveland can, though I can see a very hard-fought and long series with them. I think the Knicks could be a real pain in the ass to play against. I'm not really worried about anyone else in the NBA.

I still think that, come playoff time, Boston is the team to beat. So I'm going with the Cs.
Agree with this, but looking at the standings the other day, I thought, "Wow, the Cavs have lost 4 games in 2 1/2 months. Its going to be a challenge for them to lose 4 games on two weeks."

What they've done is very impressive.
 

astrozombie

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 12, 2022
819
I went Cs. One part homerism, one part I think they will turn the intensity up in the playoffs (famous last words), one part talent, one part less variance over a 7 game series than a single game. OKC would be the second team.
All the credit to the Cavs and I am running out of answers for their record other than "they're just that good", but I can also see them getting derailed/tight over a bad stretch in the playoffs. As much as I hate thinking it (because it is irrational) a little bit of losing early on is generally okay, either as a wakeup call or a way to make adjustments or to give players time to process, forget and move on.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
It's difficult to make strong arguments against either the Cavs or Thunder given what they've done so far (on pace for more wins than last years Celtics, both with higher net ratings), but they do have some weaknesses. The Cavs have some good points to attack on defense while the Thunder's offense is still vulnerable in the half court when the game slows down. Both teams lack real experience (even if it's not necessary for teams to smack their heads against the wall as often as the Celtics in recent history, the fact that there's almost no one of import on either roster whose even been to the conference finals could be a problem), and the Thunder in particular are still incredibly young outside of SGA (who is still pretty damn young to be the best player on a title team).

If healthy and motivated, I don't believe the Celtics have any weaknesses. I don't believe that's the case for OKC or Cleveland, so Boston it is.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
So much of this is going to be determined by injury. The margins are thin for everyone this year.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
6,662
So much of this is going to be determined by injury. The margins are thin for everyone this year.
Yup. I just want whatever the person who picked Denver is smoking lol. Jokic is averaging 2.5 minutes higher than any previous season in his 10th year in the league. I'm sure that will work out well when he needs energy for the playoffs!
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
26,345
where I was last at
I'm impressed with the Thunder, but not sure if they are ready to win a series of 7-gamers. But they are close.

I would love to say Celts unconditionally, but their play over the past month is worrisome. I hope they regain their focus and recommit to playing D, soon. I'd also like to see a doubling down of moving the ball on offense. There has been too much top of the key iso and its led, IMO to a stagnant, less dynamic, and more easily defensible offense. Maybe its mid-winter blahs, but they are not playing championship ball now.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
13,363
I'm impressed with the Thunder, but not sure if they are ready to win a series of 7-gamers. But they are close.

I would love to say Celts unconditionally, but their play over the past month is worrisome. I hope they regain their focus and recommit to playing D, soon. I'd also like to see a doubling down of moving the ball on offense. There has been too much top of the key iso and its led, IMO to a stagnant, less dynamic, and more easily defensible offense. Maybe its mid-winter blahs, but they are not playing championship ball now.
One thing is for sure.. whoever comes out of the west is going to be beaten up.. like when the Celts had to go through Cleveland and the Heat while west coast teams had relatively easy paths to the finals.

I wonder if Cleveland will wear themselves out trying to win as much as possible.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
26,345
where I was last at
One thing is for sure.. whoever comes out of the west is going to be beaten up.. like when the Celts had to go through Cleveland and the Heat while west coast teams had relatively easy paths to the finals.

I wonder if Cleveland will wear themselves out trying to win as much as possible.
Like when the 80s Celts had wars with Philly, Det and the Lakers had brunch
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
13,363
Like when the 80s Celts had wars with Philly, Det and the Lakers had brunch
Yes.. there are multiple iterations of this.. the Eastern conference isn’t easy’ at the moment but the path through the west is significantly harder… even last year the Mavs were almost surely more exhausted by the time they got to the finals.
OKC has yet to prove they can survive that gauntlet… much like when the young celts couldn’t, until they did.

With Cleveland.. I think it’s all about injuries.. and being able to handle the pressure of winning a series or multiple series.. and not getting injured.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
Really feels like a Boston-Cleveland collision course. The Bucks and Knicks don't have the personnel to stop their offenses.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
5,152
I'm going with the Celtics -- I think in the playoffs, having savvy, experienced veterans counts a lot. The Thunder and Cavs are both quite young, and neither has gone very deep into the playoffs. I think their youth will be exposed when the lights get bright. But I think the Celtics definitely have a harder path this year than last.
 

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
14,444
I’m on the OKC train, too. I suspect a trade for Csm Johnson will add to their smoke.
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,419
OKC. Don't forget they are doing all of this without Holmgren, who they may get back.
Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet

I’m on the OKC train, too. I suspect a trade for Csm Johnson will add to their smoke.
I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet



I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s
A 12ppg player who opens up the whole floor is pretty dang valuable.

OKC isn't that explosive an offense, and they need to find more juice and space.
 

jasail

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,233
Boston
As bad as they've played for the past ~2 months, I voted for the Celtics. It's a slog right now, but we know how difficult of a match up they are - they can win on the road, they present a host of match up problems, and these two factors make them very difficult to beat them over a seven game series. Hopefully, they can flip the switch.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet



I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s
Apart from whether or not Cam Johnson is the right guy for OKC, they should be at a point in their development where it's ok to overpay for small gains in title equity. They've got all of these picks that they can't possibly utilize effectively, and the players already under contract are clearly a top tier title contender. All teams hit a point where winning the trade is less important that the improved play you get on the court, and while it can be difficult for teams to determine exactly when they hit that point, OKC is clearly there.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,218
I vote the celtics, despite the recent struggles. one could argue not super out of the ordinary for a defending champ whose key players played over the summer as well.

The teams ahead of them in the standings - Cavs, Thunder, Rockets - haven't gotten past the conference semifinals. Don't know why, but nearly all nba champs over the decades have had to at least made the conference finals within the previous couple years (2008 celtics, 2015 warriors the only recent exceptions to this rule). It's a simple heuristic but it works about 90% of the time in the NBA.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,691
I like the Knicks.

They might be one guy short, but Mitchell Robinson(or the guy they trade Robinson for) might be enough to put them over the top.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
I like the Knicks.

They might be one guy short, but Mitchell Robinson(or the guy they trade Robinson for) might be enough to put them over the top.
The Knicks have an unsolvable problem: Their two best players are defensive liabilities, particularly on the perimeter. Their offense is arguably the best in the league and Towns/Brunson are surrounded by above average to all defense level players so maybe it's enough to put them over the top, but I don't think so.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
The Knicks have an unsolvable problem: Their two best players are defensive liabilities, particularly on the perimeter. Their offense is arguably the best in the league and Towns/Brunson are surrounded by above average to all defense level players so maybe it's enough to put them over the top, but I don't think so.
Yeah, forget Boston--I don't see how they can get by Cleveland with that setup, or anyone out west.


(Barring injuries, which is why the Knicks do have real title equity. )
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,419
Thunder up 36-9. I don’t care who that’s against. Damn.
Thunder frontcourt tonight is 6'3 (Joe), 6'4"(Dort), and then 6'9" (JWill). Obviously helps that this is one of those game with Isiah Joe can't miss. JDub is out tonight

Kind of meaningless, but I was just getting a kick out of a guy who is generously listed at 6'3" 165 being listed in the lineup at PF
 
Last edited:

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
14,444
Apart from whether or not Cam Johnson is the right guy for OKC, they should be at a point in their development where it's ok to overpay for small gains in title equity. They've got all of these picks that they can't possibly utilize effectively, and the players already under contract are clearly a top tier title contender. All teams hit a point where winning the trade is less important that the improved play you get on the court, and while it can be difficult for teams to determine exactly when they hit that point, OKC is clearly there.
Exactly. They'd be foolish to play the "well, Cam Johnson's value is precisely X and we won't go higher" game. When you're in the Thunder's position, a player like Johnson who could tip the balance in playoff series has way more than his abstract value. Seems like a perfect fit to me and, if Presti agrees, then he should top whatever the market is to make the trade happen. They've stockpiled all those assets for a reason.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
Feels like a Cs - Thunder collision course right now.

The Cavs could absolutely crash the party: I'd probably put them at 40-45% to win a series against locked-in Boston.

For the Thunder: it's hard for me to see who can score on them out West. Maybe Denver? OKC is the same as Boston last year: they haven't done it yet, but all the metrics are off the charts, and suggest we should treat them as a super-elite juggernaut.

For Boston - OKC: OKC's defense is really incredible....and Boston is better-equipped than anyone in the league to specifically beat what they do. The Celtics are great against any forms of help, and big enough to force real mismatches on drives without that help. On the other end, Boston has the personnel to slow the Thunder down, and it's possible to drag them into the mud.

If OKC had made a big deadline upgrade, I'd have them as favorites, but I think the Celtics should be very slight favorites if that's the Finals matchup.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
Dallas self-destructing is a real boon to OKC. Going back to last year's playoffs, Dallas was 7-3 vs OKC and seemed to have their number. Now it seems like anyone but Denver would be a major underdog against OKC. I'd really love to see OKC play the Lakers in Round 1.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
33,879
If I were running the NYK, I'd start load managing now to get out of the 2/3 spot and into the 4/5 spot. NYK has a much better shot against CLE than BOS - they can stick Brunson on Garland and KAT on Allen and see if their other plus defenders can cover up.

But agree, looks like OKC versus BOS. Hopefully OKC is too young to get it done this year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
75,061
If I were running the NYK, I'd start load managing now to get out of the 2/3 spot and into the 4/5 spot. NYK has a much better shot against CLE than BOS - they can stick Brunson on Garland and KAT on Allen and see if their other plus defenders can cover up.
This is kind of right, NY has no chance to win a series against BOS (or OKC). They do have a shot against CLE but it would necessitate Mitchell Robinson for at least 20-25 minutes at the 5, dominating Allen like he did in the playoffs two years ago.

But yeah, BOS and OKC looked to me to be well above the field coming into the season, and nothing has changed there.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
If I were running the NYK, I'd start load managing now to get out of the 2/3 spot and into the 4/5 spot. NYK has a much better shot against CLE than BOS - they can stick Brunson on Garland and KAT on Allen and see if their other plus defenders can cover up.

But agree, looks like OKC versus BOS. Hopefully OKC is too young to get it done this year.
I want to clarify that, while I like Boston's chances against OKC, Cleveland has a very very real shot to beat Boston.

It might come down to whether one team goes particularly hot or cold from 3. If shooting is even, Boston wins, but it rarely is.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
33,879
I want to clarify that, while I like Boston's chances against OKC, Cleveland has a very very real shot to beat Boston.

It might come down to whether one team goes particularly hot or cold from 3. If shooting is even, Boston wins, but it rarely is.
I dunno. I'm not saying CLE has no shot but seems to me that they would be decided underdogs.

BOS is going to play CLE like they did last year - see if Mitchell can beat them pretty much single-handedly in 4 games. Maybe he can. But JB is going to pick him full court and those step-back 3Ps are pretty stressful on the body.

Hunter probably means that they have one solution against JB/JT but JT for sure seems pretty comfortable against Mobley or Allen or Garland or Mitchell.
 

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
14,444
Definitely Celtics/Cavs in the east, with Boston having the upper hand but possibly a tougher path given that the Cavs will likely have the #1 seed.

Definitely OKC in the west, but per the Cam Johnson discussion above I'd feel better about them if they'd picked him up or someone of his ilk. But hard to see who will challenge them.

Both Minny and Denver are playing better recently. Maybe a healthy Denver gets it together to challenge OKC? There's also other teams in the "if things break just right" category: It's true that Dallas is self-destructing, but if they sneak in and AD is healthy, I think they remain a huge challenge for OKC. Maybe GS somehow meshes perfectly with Butler? Luka and LeBron for the Lakers are an extreme long-shot given that they don't really have a functional center, but any team with those 2 is hard to entirely count out. Not predicting any of them can challenge OKC -- even Denver is a bit of a long shot -- but each have a "in a perfect world" scenario.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
8,559
OKC could potentially face the Warriors, Lakers, and Nuggets in the West. They have a daunting run to the Finals, and their superstar has won only one playoff series 8n his career.They can easily get tripped up.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
I dunno. I'm not saying CLE has no shot but seems to me that they would be decided underdogs.

BOS is going to play CLE like they did last year - see if Mitchell can beat them pretty much single-handedly in 4 games. Maybe he can. But JB is going to pick him full court and those step-back 3Ps are pretty stressful on the body.

Hunter probably means that they have one solution against JB/JT but JT for sure seems pretty comfortable against Mobley or Allen or Garland or Mitchell.
I think I'm just wayyy higher on Garland, offensively, than most. He wasn't himself in the Boston series last year, and looked like he was still coming back from that injury.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
I think I'm just wayyy higher on Garland, offensively, than most. He wasn't himself in the Boston series last year, and looked like he was still coming back from that injury.
He absolutely was still recovering. On its face (no pun intended) you wouldn't think a broken jaw is the kind of injury that would effect you months after returning to play, but he's said that he lost 12-15 pounds while recovering (not being able to eat solid food for weeks will do that), pretty significant given that his listed weight is just 192. Nearly impossible to gain that weight back during the season, he was very much not himself for the remainder of the year. And I think he's taken a solid step forward this year, just in the way that 25 year old all-stars tend to do.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
33,879
I think I'm just wayyy higher on Garland, offensively, than most. He wasn't himself in the Boston series last year, and looked like he was still coming back from that injury.
He hasn't been great against BOS this year either.

Garland good. He's playing at a near All-Star level. I just don't think in a playoff setting with BOS's size, assuming BOS guards him pretty much straight up, that he's going to be able to make the Cs pay the way Mitchell can or JT/JB can do to him.

The beauty of BOS, as we saw last year, is that they generally don't have to scheme up their defense. CLE isn't going to be able to find a Garland matchup that they can spam (unlike Mitchell on a big, which they went to plenty in last year's series until Mitchell got hurt) - unless Mobley plays at a new level.

The same isn't going to be true on the other end.
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,419
OKC could potentially face the Warriors, Lakers, and Nuggets in the West. They have a daunting run to the Finals, and their superstar has won only one playoff series 8n his career.They can easily get tripped up.
Is it really a daunting run? I guess in theory if the Thunder crap out anything is possible, but honestly, I think they'd be the favorites to take the first 2 series in 5, and Denver would have to play an amazing series to keep up with the Thunder as they are just so much deeper.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
75,061
They're so scary with Holmgren and Hartenstein together, they're seemingly getting better every game.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
10,255
Oakland
They're so scary with Holmgren and Hartenstein together, they're seemingly getting better every game.
On pace for 68 wins and currently have the best net rating of all time, just ahead of the 96 Bulls. They likely are getting better every game, because they are so young. Even beyond the lack of experience they aren't perfect (I think their offense will struggle against good half-court defenses and teams that take care of the ball in the playoffs, especially if SGA has an off night), but the ceiling is incredibly high.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
75,061
On pace for 68 wins and currently have the best net rating of all time, just ahead of the 96 Bulls. They likely are getting better every game, because they are so young. Even beyond the lack of experience they aren't perfect (I think their offense will struggle against good half-court defenses and teams that take care of the ball in the playoffs, especially if SGA has an off night), but the ceiling is incredibly high.
SGA never had a 50 point game in his career before he just did it 3 times in 7 games.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
75,061
If I were running the NYK, I'd start load managing now to get out of the 2/3 spot and into the 4/5 spot. NYK has a much better shot against CLE than BOS - they can stick Brunson on Garland and KAT on Allen and see if their other plus defenders can cover up.

But agree, looks like OKC versus BOS. Hopefully OKC is too young to get it done this year.
Just to answer this again, tonight’s NY @ IND game was a big one for NY to potentially drop. If IND had won at home, they’d be 3 back in the loss column with 30 left plus the 2-1 series tiebreaker. But NY won, so they’re 5 up on IND and 6 on MIL and have won both season series.

NY still has 5 left against BOS (2) and CLE (3) but that’s a big deficit to make up barring a major collapse by NY.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
33,879
Just to answer this again, tonight’s NY @ IND game was a big one for NY to potentially drop. If IND had won at home, they’d be 3 back in the loss column with 30 left plus the 2-1 series tiebreaker. But NY won, so they’re 5 up on IND and 6 on MIL and have won both season series.

NY still has 5 left against BOS (2) and CLE (3) but that’s a big deficit to make up barring a major collapse by NY.
I think we've seen in the past that Thibs wants to win every game, torpedoes be damned!
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
14,815
SF
I think we've seen in the past that Thibs wants to win every game, torpedoes be damned!
Yeah, the Knicks are getting the #2 or #3 seed, which is great for Boston. The Bucks are mediocre, but 4-7 games of the Giannis battering ram is never fun physically.

The Knicks are physical, I guess? In practice, KAT's softness lowers that factor a lot.
 

The Raccoon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2018
1,004
Germany
I think we've seen in the past that Thibs wants to win every game, torpedoes be damned!
Thanks to the injury break for OG the Knicks only have 3 players in the top 5 in minutes played total this season: #1 (Bridges), #2 (Hart), #5 (Brunson). [Ant is #3 and JT #4].

OG dropped to currently #11 and KAT is at #32.

Playing your guys that many minutes is especially impressive if you factor in that there are quite some teams in the league who already have played 1-2 games more than NYK (incl. Boston and Minnesota for example with their high minute load superstar each).
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
41,239
Hingham, MA
Yeah, the Knicks are getting the #2 or #3 seed, which is great for Boston. The Bucks are mediocre, but 4-7 games of the Giannis battering ram is never fun physically.
This assumes that the Bucks don't slip to the 6 slot. Unlikely, but they only have a 2 game lead on Detroit right now. I wouldn't love a 3-6 first round matchup vs. the Bucks for the reason you mentioned.

If the Celts hang on to 2, it would be awesome if the Bucks slipped to 6 though!