It’s Mid January: Who do you think will be NBA Champs this year?

[Lose Remerswaal]

These are the top teams as of now, or pick Other and say who you think will win. Teams listed by current win totals. Mavs and Magic have the same wins, but the Mavs were there last year, so they make the poll and Orlando does not, and Denver makes it because they are one behind in wins, but have a better winning percentage than the Magic

 

[benhogan]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8itH10OFc8

 

[BaseballJones]

I said this recently but believe it to be true. Anyone can beat Boston on any given night, but very few teams can beat them four times out of seven. I think OKC could. I don't think Cleveland can, though I can see a very hard-fought and long series with them. I think the Knicks could be a real pain in the ass to play against. I'm not really worried about anyone else in the NBA.

I still think that, come playoff time, Boston is the team to beat. So I'm going with the Cs.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I said this recently but believe it to be true. Anyone can beat Boston on any given night, but very few teams can beat them four times out of seven. I think OKC could. I don't think Cleveland can, though I can see a very hard-fought and long series with them. I think the Knicks could be a real pain in the ass to play against. I'm not really worried about anyone else in the NBA.

I still think that, come playoff time, Boston is the team to beat. So I'm going with the Cs.

Agree with this, but looking at the standings the other day, I thought, "Wow, the Cavs have lost 4 games in 2 1/2 months. Its going to be a challenge for them to lose 4 games on two weeks."

What they've done is very impressive.

 

[astrozombie]

I went Cs. One part homerism, one part I think they will turn the intensity up in the playoffs (famous last words), one part talent, one part less variance over a 7 game series than a single game. OKC would be the second team.
All the credit to the Cavs and I am running out of answers for their record other than "they're just that good", but I can also see them getting derailed/tight over a bad stretch in the playoffs. As much as I hate thinking it (because it is irrational) a little bit of losing early on is generally okay, either as a wakeup call or a way to make adjustments or to give players time to process, forget and move on.

 

[Euclis20]

It's difficult to make strong arguments against either the Cavs or Thunder given what they've done so far (on pace for more wins than last years Celtics, both with higher net ratings), but they do have some weaknesses. The Cavs have some good points to attack on defense while the Thunder's offense is still vulnerable in the half court when the game slows down. Both teams lack real experience (even if it's not necessary for teams to smack their heads against the wall as often as the Celtics in recent history, the fact that there's almost no one of import on either roster whose even been to the conference finals could be a problem), and the Thunder in particular are still incredibly young outside of SGA (who is still pretty damn young to be the best player on a title team).

If healthy and motivated, I don't believe the Celtics have any weaknesses. I don't believe that's the case for OKC or Cleveland, so Boston it is.

 

[lovegtm]

So much of this is going to be determined by injury. The margins are thin for everyone this year.

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

So much of this is going to be determined by injury. The margins are thin for everyone this year.

Yup. I just want whatever the person who picked Denver is smoking lol. Jokic is averaging 2.5 minutes higher than any previous season in his 10th year in the league. I'm sure that will work out well when he needs energy for the playoffs!

 

[mikeford]

Denver just doesn't have the other horses this year but the Thunder could do it.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm impressed with the Thunder, but not sure if they are ready to win a series of 7-gamers. But they are close.

I would love to say Celts unconditionally, but their play over the past month is worrisome. I hope they regain their focus and recommit to playing D, soon. I'd also like to see a doubling down of moving the ball on offense. There has been too much top of the key iso and its led, IMO to a stagnant, less dynamic, and more easily defensible offense. Maybe its mid-winter blahs, but they are not playing championship ball now.

 

[lars10]

I'm impressed with the Thunder, but not sure if they are ready to win a series of 7-gamers. But they are close.

I would love to say Celts unconditionally, but their play over the past month is worrisome. I hope they regain their focus and recommit to playing D, soon. I'd also like to see a doubling down of moving the ball on offense. There has been too much top of the key iso and its led, IMO to a stagnant, less dynamic, and more easily defensible offense. Maybe its mid-winter blahs, but they are not playing championship ball now.

One thing is for sure.. whoever comes out of the west is going to be beaten up.. like when the Celts had to go through Cleveland and the Heat while west coast teams had relatively easy paths to the finals.

I wonder if Cleveland will wear themselves out trying to win as much as possible.

 

[bankshot1]

One thing is for sure.. whoever comes out of the west is going to be beaten up.. like when the Celts had to go through Cleveland and the Heat while west coast teams had relatively easy paths to the finals.

I wonder if Cleveland will wear themselves out trying to win as much as possible.

Like when the 80s Celts had wars with Philly, Det and the Lakers had brunch

 

[lars10]

Like when the 80s Celts had wars with Philly, Det and the Lakers had brunch

Yes.. there are multiple iterations of this.. the Eastern conference isn’t easy’ at the moment but the path through the west is significantly harder… even last year the Mavs were almost surely more exhausted by the time they got to the finals.
OKC has yet to prove they can survive that gauntlet… much like when the young celts couldn’t, until they did.

With Cleveland.. I think it’s all about injuries.. and being able to handle the pressure of winning a series or multiple series.. and not getting injured.

 

[lovegtm]

Really feels like a Boston-Cleveland collision course. The Bucks and Knicks don't have the personnel to stop their offenses.

 

[Imbricus]

I'm going with the Celtics -- I think in the playoffs, having savvy, experienced veterans counts a lot. The Thunder and Cavs are both quite young, and neither has gone very deep into the playoffs. I think their youth will be exposed when the lights get bright. But I think the Celtics definitely have a harder path this year than last.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

OKC. Don't forget they are doing all of this without Holmgren, who they may get back.

 

[Tony C]

I’m on the OKC train, too. I suspect a trade for Csm Johnson will add to their smoke.

 

[BigMike]

OKC. Don't forget they are doing all of this without Holmgren, who they may get back.

Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet

I’m on the OKC train, too. I suspect a trade for Csm Johnson will add to their smoke.

I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s

 

[lovegtm]

Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet



I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s

A 12ppg player who opens up the whole floor is pretty dang valuable.

OKC isn't that explosive an offense, and they need to find more juice and space.

 

[jasail]

As bad as they've played for the past ~2 months, I voted for the Celtics. It's a slog right now, but we know how difficult of a match up they are - they can win on the road, they present a host of match up problems, and these two factors make them very difficult to beat them over a seven game series. Hopefully, they can flip the switch.

 

[Euclis20]

Obviously that is the question on OKC can they actually be healthy for postseason. If they are they are the huge favorites in the west, and may make fairly quick work of the western gauntlet



I am still torn on the value here for OKC, but it depends on what it costs. i think he would be a huge upgrade on Isiah joe (less so on Andrew Wiggins), but I do think he's a 12 PPG player in OKC, and not worth 2 or 3 #1s

Apart from whether or not Cam Johnson is the right guy for OKC, they should be at a point in their development where it's ok to overpay for small gains in title equity. They've got all of these picks that they can't possibly utilize effectively, and the players already under contract are clearly a top tier title contender. All teams hit a point where winning the trade is less important that the improved play you get on the court, and while it can be difficult for teams to determine exactly when they hit that point, OKC is clearly there.

 

[ALiveH]

I vote the celtics, despite the recent struggles. one could argue not super out of the ordinary for a defending champ whose key players played over the summer as well.

The teams ahead of them in the standings - Cavs, Thunder, Rockets - haven't gotten past the conference semifinals. Don't know why, but nearly all nba champs over the decades have had to at least made the conference finals within the previous couple years (2008 celtics, 2015 warriors the only recent exceptions to this rule). It's a simple heuristic but it works about 90% of the time in the NBA.

 

[mcpickl]

I like the Knicks.

They might be one guy short, but Mitchell Robinson(or the guy they trade Robinson for) might be enough to put them over the top.

 

[Euclis20]

I like the Knicks.

They might be one guy short, but Mitchell Robinson(or the guy they trade Robinson for) might be enough to put them over the top.

The Knicks have an unsolvable problem: Their two best players are defensive liabilities, particularly on the perimeter. Their offense is arguably the best in the league and Towns/Brunson are surrounded by above average to all defense level players so maybe it's enough to put them over the top, but I don't think so.

 

[lovegtm]

The Knicks have an unsolvable problem: Their two best players are defensive liabilities, particularly on the perimeter. Their offense is arguably the best in the league and Towns/Brunson are surrounded by above average to all defense level players so maybe it's enough to put them over the top, but I don't think so.

Yeah, forget Boston--I don't see how they can get by Cleveland with that setup, or anyone out west.


(Barring injuries, which is why the Knicks do have real title equity. )

 

[tims4wins]

Thunder up 36-9. I don’t care who that’s against. Damn.

 

[BigMike]

Thunder up 36-9. I don’t care who that’s against. Damn.

Thunder frontcourt tonight is 6'3 (Joe), 6'4"(Dort), and then 6'9" (JWill). Obviously helps that this is one of those game with Isiah Joe can't miss. JDub is out tonight

Kind of meaningless, but I was just getting a kick out of a guy who is generously listed at 6'3" 165 being listed in the lineup at PF

 

[Tony C]

Apart from whether or not Cam Johnson is the right guy for OKC, they should be at a point in their development where it's ok to overpay for small gains in title equity. They've got all of these picks that they can't possibly utilize effectively, and the players already under contract are clearly a top tier title contender. All teams hit a point where winning the trade is less important that the improved play you get on the court, and while it can be difficult for teams to determine exactly when they hit that point, OKC is clearly there.

Exactly. They'd be foolish to play the "well, Cam Johnson's value is precisely X and we won't go higher" game. When you're in the Thunder's position, a player like Johnson who could tip the balance in playoff series has way more than his abstract value. Seems like a perfect fit to me and, if Presti agrees, then he should top whatever the market is to make the trade happen. They've stockpiled all those assets for a reason.