Is There Something I Should Know? How good will Jarren Duran be going forward?

[JohntheBaptist]

You didn’t. I wasn’t arguing with you. I was just continuing the discussion.

Oh, ok, my bad then. I totally agree. I think there should be no doubt about his offensive game at this point. I do wonder where along the spectrum of numbers his defense sits in real-world terms; I don't think he suddenly went from awful to top of the league, but he did look considerably better to me, too. I admittedly have wondered if maybe he'd be more valuable to us in a trade considering the whole of the roster but having him instead I don't think as some downside situation. His 2024, meathead moments aside, was an incredibly fun season to watch of big on-field things, and so many little things he consistently did well.

 

[marcoscutaro]

My main concerns would be how he looked in September after a whole season of running hard on everything, his high BABIP, and his character.

His September collapse was…Not good. I can see how his running would be affected because the tank was simply empty, but I don’t really understand how his numbers would collapse like that. Unless his high BABIP is disproportionately dependent on his speed?

That brings me to my third point. Duran has spoken about his personal development but last season he was reported to be punching his locker over dropping a fly ball, and even before the incident people on Twitter were commenting about him shouting at fans in the outfield.

To some, that probably codes as “passionate”, but to me, that’s a 29 year old player (next year) who hasn’t really worked on better ways of dealing with failure in a game of failure and that concerns me too. I just have this horror of him fucking up in a game and lashing out in a really ugly way and while insanely talented, the inability to get out of his own way is very worrying to me. Could be wrong, doesn’t seem like anyone else cares.

 

[BringBackMo]

My main concerns would be how he looked in September after a whole season of running hard on everything, his high BABIP, and his character.

His September collapse was…Not good. I can see how his running would be affected because the tank was simply empty, but I don’t really understand how his numbers would collapse like that. Unless his high BABIP is disproportionately dependent on his speed?

That brings me to my third point. Duran has spoken about his personal development but last season he was reported to be punching his locker over dropping a fly ball, and even before the incident people on Twitter were commenting about him shouting at fans in the outfield.

To some, that probably codes as “passionate”, but to me, that’s a 29 year old player (next year) who hasn’t really worked on better ways of dealing with failure in a game of failure and that concerns me too. I just have this horror of him fucking up in a game and lashing out in a really ugly way and while insanely talented, the inability to get out of his own way is very worrying to me. Could be wrong, doesn’t seem like anyone else cares.

He’s a player who has been open about his mental health challenges (though I don’t lump his homophobic slur in with them, as to me that was revealing something about his underlying character not his mental health), so I think it’s reasonable to wonder whether that played some part in his September swoon.

But as you noted, he also played a LOT last year, 160 games and led the league in plate appearances. He may well have simply worn down. Also, the Sox weren’t playing for much as the season wound down. And then there’s the fact that players just have stretches where they can look really good or really bad, and his horrid stretch coincided with the end of the season. It’s natural that it’s what we remember.

All in all, if you take a 1000+ plate-appearance sample (Duran’s ‘23 and ‘24 seasons) from just about any player, you’re going to find these kinds of valleys in there. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s reasonable to highlight September. But I have more questions about his true level of defense going forward than I do about his bat.

By the way, Duran doesn’t turn 29 until September. He will play the vast majority of the ‘25 season as a 28 year old.

 

[BaseballJones]

If you take Duran's last two years and averaged them out, here's the composite player:

131 g, 79 r, 41 2b, 8 3b, 15 hr, 58 rbi, 29 sb, .288/.343/.489/.832, 126 ops+, 5.4 bWAR

That's a heck of a baseball player.

 

[Whoop-La White]

Duran’s 2024 was such an eye-opener that I had forgotten how good he was in 2023. The only stat that really shifted was that his doubles (34 in 362 PA) turned into triples and homers.

Is it sustainable? Is the concern about talent or drive, or that his body is going to break down due to how intensely he plays? Johnny Damon was another lunkhead who threw his body around and seemed to sustain himself pretty well into his 30s.

As for the emotional fragility, I’m not sure that’s unique to Duran; it just gets analyzed more because we happen to know more about the details than we do about other players. I credit Cora with sticking with the guy even though he looked utterly lost (and at one point even like he no longer cared). If breakdown becomes an issue, Cora is pretty conscientious about giving guys time off when they need it.

I also wonder, given Fenway’s quirks, if Duran falls into the category of player who is simply more valuable to the Red Sox than he would be for most other teams. The only team I could see dangling him to is Seattle (given their pitching assets and the possibility of Duran hitting 25 triples in that park).

 

[ted lepcio]

I favor Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Abreu in RF to start the season. I am content to start Grissom at 2B to start. I would start Anthony and Campbell in AAA to start. Depending on their play, barring injury, I would make the determination at half season, before the trade deadline, about trading Abreu, and making a decision of Grissom vs. Campbell at 2B. Abreu needs to bat against both RH and LH -pitching consistently in order to define his role or to consider trading him for pitching. I think Duran will continue to progress. I would not trade Casis for pitching.

 

[Niastri]

I went with door #2. Offensively, he put up very similar lines in 2023 and 2024, with an .828 and .834 OPS respectively. His defense was drastically improved and he played an additional 60 games however. Do I think he’s going to put up more 8 bWAR seasons, no, I don’t.

But I feel pretty confident he’s going to be something around a 4.5 bWAR on balance player for his 28, 29, 30 and 31 seasons, which are the years the Red Sox control him.

No way I’d be looking to extend him, based on those ages. The flip side of that is there is really no chance I’d be open to moving him either. With the exception of Devers, the rest of the line up (minimum 1 MLB at bat) is too limited to reasonably project to a 4.5 WAR player. Maybe Rafaela could get there, but all the rest of Wong, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, Story, Abreu, Yoshida and whatever else are decent bets to not suck, but only Casas and Abreu reasonably look like even 3.5 win players.

The team has a high floor, but a very limited ceiling (again, minimum 1 MLB version). As such, Duran is a guy that won’t reproduce what he did last year, but I’d is almost certain to be one of the 3 or 4 most productive players on the roster the next 4 seasons.

I think you are selling the rest of the roster unnecessarily short. There is a tremendous amount of potential, both in new highs and in return to past highs.

For instance, Story has had 4 seasons of at least 4 WAR and 2 seasons of 6 WAR, topping out at 7. His decline since coming to the Sox is mostly injury related... If he comes back healthy, is it crazy to think he could be a 4 WAR player again in his age 32 season?

Grissom just got traded for a CY Young winner, based entirely off his potential. Isn't it possible some of that potential becomes actual production in his age 24 season after 350 major league plate appearances?

I think you could do the same thought experiment with each of our young players, including our highest ranked prospects still in the minors. And all the starting pitchers as well. We have 6 starters and almost a full lineup of young guys and recovery projects where very few outcomes would be truly shocking.

I think this roster has huge variance both as individuals and a team.

If all the guys stay healthy, and advance in their development (or recover from injury), they could easily win the division and be top contenders for the World Series.

They also could easily be competing for 81 wins and be trading veterans at the trade deadline.

I find the serious upside of a bunch of highly rated prospects all possibly maturing simultaneously very fun to watch. Even if they don't become great, at least you know they can get better.

This kind of roster is much more exciting than a roster filled with mediocre low variance veterans, on short term deals. Miracle seasons like 2013 don't happen very often.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

is it crazy to think Story could be a 4 WAR player again in his age 32 season?

Yes.

 

[BaseballJones]

Some thoughts on Jarren Duran. First, some raw numbers.

2023: 362 pa, 34 2b, 2 3b, 8 hr, 24 sb, .295/.346/.482/.828
2024: 735 pa, 48 2b, 14 3b, 21 hr, 34 sb, .285/.342/.492/.834

So the slash line is virtually identical. He's basically the same hitter. The increase in doubles and homers (triples seems an outlier) can be explained by the increased number of plate appearances.

But let's look a little more under the hood.

Exit Velocity
2023: 89.4
2024: 90.2 - virtually identical, or close enough

BABIP
2023: .381
2024: .345 - so a little unlucky compared to 2023

K percentage - look at this trend
2021: 35.7%
2022: 28.3%
2023: 24.9%
2024: 21.8%

So he's putting the bat on the ball a lot more. Even though his BABIP was worse in 2024, he's striking out a lot less than he did earlier in his career. More balls put in play = more opportunities for hits.

He's striking out less, hitting the ball hard, putting it in play, and getting on base. And he's running a lot, both in terms of stolen bases and extra bases taken. These are all very positive developments.

Now let's look at wins above replacement.

bWAR:
2023: 2.1
2024: 8.7

So WAR is a counting stat, and Duran's 2024 WAR was 4x what it was in 2023. Huge increase. Some of that is explained by the increase in PA. 2024 PA was a little more than 2x what it was in 2023. So that doesn't explain all the difference in WAR.

oWAR
2023: 2.7
2024: 6.2 (2.3x what it was in 2023)

So the difference in oWAR can almost be completely explained by the difference in plate appearances. So that leaves defense, and this is key.

dWAR
2023: -0.5
2024: 2.5

A full three WAR difference just on defense. Clearly he got a LOT better with the glove. I don't know how dWAR is calculated, but while his errors went up (6 errors in 2024 compared to 1 error in 2023), his range increased. RF of 2.33 in 2024 compared with 2.09 in 2023. His 2023 RF was below league average, but in 2024 it was above league average. He also led the league in assists in 2024 (12). He only had 2 in 2023. So throwing out guys was a very important part of his defense.


So what part of Duran's game is maintainable or even open for more growth, and what part is unsustainable?

I don't expect him to play 160 games again. He'll get hurt here and there, so he'll lose some WAR just from decreased playing time. His speed should still be there for another couple of years, and even when he declines some, he should compensate for base running intelligence and experience.

His contact and exit velocity numbers that are exciting. Those are trending in the right direction, which means I think he will be an effective hitter for several more years.

And the fielding should continue to improve, at least in terms of glove work. I do expect his assist numbers to go down as either guys stop running on him or those bang-bang plays even out a little more and he's just a tick late on some of the throws. I expect his dWAR numbers to go down a little, but he should still be a plus fielder.

Long story short, I still look at a guy who should be a 5-6 WAR player, which is a big decline from last year, but mostly based on playing time and fewer outfield assists. A 5-6 WAR player is an outstanding MLB player, all-star level player, which is what I think Duran will be the next few years.

 

[chawson]

Some thoughts on Jarren Duran. First, some raw numbers.

2023: 362 pa, 34 2b, 2 3b, 8 hr, 24 sb, .295/.346/.482/.828
2024: 735 pa, 48 2b, 14 3b, 21 hr, 34 sb, .285/.342/.492/.834

So the slash line is virtually identical. He's basically the same hitter. The increase in doubles and homers (triples seems an outlier) can be explained by the increased number of plate appearances.

But let's look a little more under the hood.

Exit Velocity
2023: 89.4
2024: 90.2 - virtually identical, or close enough

BABIP
2023: .381
2024: .345 - so a little unlucky compared to 2023

K percentage - look at this trend
2021: 35.7%
2022: 28.3%
2023: 24.9%
2024: 21.8%

So he's putting the bat on the ball a lot more. Even though his BABIP was worse in 2024, he's striking out a lot less than he did earlier in his career. More balls put in play = more opportunities for hits.

He's striking out less, hitting the ball hard, putting it in play, and getting on base. And he's running a lot, both in terms of stolen bases and extra bases taken. These are all very positive developments.

Now let's look at wins above replacement.

bWAR:
2023: 2.1
2024: 8.7

So WAR is a counting stat, and Duran's 2024 WAR was 4x what it was in 2023. Huge increase. Some of that is explained by the increase in PA. 2024 PA was a little more than 2x what it was in 2023. So that doesn't explain all the difference in WAR.

oWAR
2023: 2.7
2024: 6.2 (2.3x what it was in 2023)

So the difference in oWAR can almost be completely explained by the difference in plate appearances. So that leaves defense, and this is key.

dWAR
2023: -0.5
2024: 2.5

A full three WAR difference just on defense. Clearly he got a LOT better with the glove. I don't know how dWAR is calculated, but while his errors went up (6 errors in 2024 compared to 1 error in 2023), his range increased. RF of 2.33 in 2024 compared with 2.09 in 2023. His 2023 RF was below league average, but in 2024 it was above league average. He also led the league in assists in 2024 (12). He only had 2 in 2023. So throwing out guys was a very important part of his defense.


So what part of Duran's game is maintainable or even open for more growth, and what part is unsustainable?

I don't expect him to play 160 games again. He'll get hurt here and there, so he'll lose some WAR just from decreased playing time. His speed should still be there for another couple of years, and even when he declines some, he should compensate for base running intelligence and experience.

His contact and exit velocity numbers that are exciting. Those are trending in the right direction, which means I think he will be an effective hitter for several more years.

And the fielding should continue to improve, at least in terms of glove work. I do expect his assist numbers to go down as either guys stop running on him or those bang-bang plays even out a little more and he's just a tick late on some of the throws. I expect his dWAR numbers to go down a little, but he should still be a plus fielder.

Long story short, I still look at a guy who should be a 5-6 WAR player, which is a big decline from last year, but mostly based on playing time and fewer outfield assists. A 5-6 WAR player is an outstanding MLB player, all-star level player, which is what I think Duran will be the next few years.

Duran got a late start, but looking at his last two seasons alone, they suggest to me an optimistic career path somewhere between Carl Crawford and Curtis Granderson. He hits the ball harder than Crawford did at the same age and seems about as fast, and he has a similar spray chart that Fenway rewards. Duran is faster than Granderson but doesn't have quite the same plate discipline, and doesn't hit the ball in the air as much. Granderson was also a dead pull hitter in a way that wouldn't have been particularly helped by Fenway.

We've kind of internalized that his age and skill set make him an unattractive extension candidate and I think that's mostly wise, but I wonder if it would make sense to offer him a modest onethat buys out his first FA year (he'd be 32) and maybe some incentive triggers for a second. That kind of thing may give him some security and peace of mind, and it could also help the team in by front-loading some of his late arb AAV. He's a Super 2 so that Arb4 year will probably be $25M or so if he continues this pace.

 

[nvalvo]

The comp for Duran that I think about will sound like I’m slamming him, but I promise I’m not.

It’s Andres Torres. Torres was a toolsy outfielder who came up at 24 and was eminently mediocre on both sides of the ball for a few years for the Tigers and Rangers. He got nontendered and bounced around in the minors: White Sox, Twins, Cubs, Giants. But somewhere along the way, he really grew into his tools, especially on defense. He spent his prime posting .900 OPS seasons for the Iowa Cubs and Fresno Grizzlies.

And so he was playing well in the high minors for an SF team without a lot of position player depth when they disastrously gave Aaron Rowand a lot of money to decline precipitously for them.

And that meant Torres got a chance, and he was flat-out great in his age 31 and especially age 32 seasons. The latter year was 2010, and he was basically the best position player on the championship Giants (5.3 WAR in 139 games). Then he turned 33 and started to get hurt more and kind of fell apart.

Jarren Duran is what I think would have happened if the Tigers hadn’t give up on Torres. Torres was super talented and had all the tools; he just needed time to refine his game and a team that might otherwise need to play Nate Scheierholtz in CF to give him an opportunity.

I suspect that Bloom and Cora were only so patient with Duran because the team sucked and they saw the rule changes coming that would benefit his game, but it would have been very easy to give up on him after 2022. I’m glad they didn’t.

 

[chrisfont9]

I suspect that Bloom and Cora were only so patient with Duran because the team sucked and they saw the rule changes coming that would benefit his game, but it would have been very easy to give up on him after 2022. I’m glad they didn’t.

I've mentioned this before but think it's overlooked: at his lowest point, when they demoted him for September, 2022, he went back to Worcester and raked. I remember following the MiLB box scores because I hoped that he was still a guy, and I suspect that month of solid production, along with the psychological toughness to get demoted amidst all that was going on and do well anyway-- I believe Bloom was reluctant to give up on him because of that last month. If he sulked or just stunk after being sent down, which would have been easy enough to let happen, Bloom might have pulled the plug.

 

[Margo McCready]

I tend to find fans playing armchair psychologist with professional athletes mostly eye roll-inducing, but Raimel Tapia of all people making the team out of Spring Training in 2023 at his expense had to have been brutal. You’ve gotta give him a lot of credit for keeping focus and sticking with the relentless hustle on the field.