Is the problem Dana LeVangie? Dombrowski's vision?

Humphrey

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The entire starting rotation returned and the second, third, fourth, and fifth best relievers in the bullpen returned. How is it the fault of DD that three of the five starters and one of the main relievers completely shit the bed, and another starter missed almost the entire year from injury?
Please explain how overseeing the first division three-peat in franchise history isn't creating a "sustainable" product. Because it happened not to work out in year four for the above reason?
Throw into that mix of the three backups/long inning guys: one missed half the season because of PEDs and was quickly (and not surprisingly*) injured; another one has had numerous injuries and the third one (Velasquez) has alternated between being injured and just plain sucking. That's left a lot of long inning situations in the hands of people that can only pitch one inning.

*Hindsight is 20-20 but was there ever more of an accident waiting to happen than Wright pinch running?
 

Pandarama

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The montage of fruitless swings Pressly admired from the pen was a better sales pitch than any analyst’s graph. “It’s just the Astros’ philosophy,” he says. “They just have a different kind of mindset over there.”
We’re fortunate to have beaten them in 5 last year.

I am not being facetious.
 

BaseballJones

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Somebody has to be the one to make this post. Might as well be me.

The Red Sox' pitching staff is:

8th in the AL in ERA (7th in adjusted ERA-)
5th in the AL in FIP and xFIP (both raw and adjusted versions)
4th in the AL in SIERA

Their ERA minus FIP number is not only highest in the league, but it's more than half again as large as the 2nd highest. Whether this is bad luck or bad situational pitching, I don't know, but it seems important.

None of these rankings are outstanding (though 4th in SIERA is pretty damn good). But when phrases like "dumpster fire" and "abysmal" get thrown around, I think context is important. The Red Sox' pitching staff this year has been, at worst, league-average. It's hard to see that because the offensive explosion this year is so extreme.
To continue this, here are some other AL rankings....

8th in batting average allowed
12th in runs allowed - but keep in mind 8th in ERA...meaning their poor defense has contributed a lot
1st in strikeouts
7th in ops allowed
15th in save percentage
2nd (or 14th, depending on how you look at it...2nd worst) in blown saves
8th in WHIP

So a few things:

1. Their nominal top three starters have been disasters, especially given their expectations. Here are their last two seasons' worth of ERA numbers compared to 2019:

Sale: 2.90, 2.11, 4.68
Price: 3.38, 3.58, 4.36
Porcello: 4.65, 4.28, 5.74

These jumps are far greater than the league average this year.

2. The bullpen has blown a TON of games. Not to rehash whether the save statistic is "good" or "bad", but when comparing across the board, apples to apples, with other teams in the league, the Red Sox' bullpen has blown leads at a much higher rate than any other team in the AL. When everything works right and the starter actually does ok and the offense does it's job, the bullpen has blown nearly 50% of the save opportunities this year.

3. The defense has really let this team down. I thought defense would be one of the strengths of this team but they've really struggled and it's cost the Sox big time. They've allowed the 5th most unearned runs in the AL this year. Three of the teams ahead of them are horrible: Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit. Surprisingly, the Twins have also given up more unearned runs than the Sox, but their pitching has been far better on the whole. So this year's Red Sox pitching staff sure could use the help from the defense, and they've let them down badly.


Just kind of a perfect storm of bleh.
 

Coachster

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I've been obsessed with one stat.

This year, we're 6th in all of MLB in walks allowed. The only teams worse than us are bottom feeders, and surprisingly, Atlanta.

In the bottom 6 in walks allowed are TB, MFY's, Dodgers, MN, Cleveland and Houston. Hmmm....

Last year, we were 17th in walks allowed. It makes a difference. I have to believe there is a team strategy (who makes this? Levangie? Bannister? Cora?) to pitch around hitters. Aren't you sick of the 0-2 (and 1-2) fast ball up out of the zone. It never fucking works. We miss there, we miss outside and we end up walking another dude. Whoever is responsible for the decision not to go after hitters should be fired.
 

Humphrey

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Is this really still a thing? I know a lot was made of Leon's return in April (and some, myself included, argued it wouldn't make a significant difference), but the recent downturn can't be blamed on the catchers, can it? Sale's been pitching to Leon all along. I think it's conclusive that his slow start wasn't due to pitching to Vazquez. Porcello as well has pitched poorly to both catchers so it's not that he needs a caddy either.

Leon is a typical back-up catcher. He's catching once a week, sometimes twice. Vazquez is doing the heavy lifting and he's hitting well. This winter, it would be great if they addressed Leon's spot with someone with more offense, but I don't think it's a priority.
What I think is a priority is, if they want to keep Leon around; setting up your bench better. You have to assume he's an automatic out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Wierd seeing folks down on the recent drafts. The last one was excellent, especially considering the lack of a true first rounder (and the cap issues that come with that).
I agree that it's not the recent drafts that are the problem, it's the first few Cherington drafts, particularly the unmitigated catastrophe that was 2013 (the cherry on the Bobby Valentine sundae). The total lack of any talent from that draft (and the lack of any but marginal talent from 2012 and 2014, more excusable since we were drafting lower those years) is really hurting the Sox now.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I've been obsessed with one stat.

This year, we're 6th in all of MLB in walks allowed. The only teams worse than us are bottom feeders, and surprisingly, Atlanta.

In the bottom 6 in walks allowed are TB, MFY's, Dodgers, MN, Cleveland and Houston. Hmmm....

Last year, we were 17th in walks allowed. It makes a difference. I have to believe there is a team strategy (who makes this? Levangie? Bannister? Cora?) to pitch around hitters. Aren't you sick of the 0-2 (and 1-2) fast ball up out of the zone. It never fucking works. We miss there, we miss outside and we end up walking another dude. Whoever is responsible for the decision not to go after hitters should be fired.
This may be a case of the perils of using raw numbers. The Sox are 6th in walks allowed, but they're 10th in BB/9 and 12th in BB%. Why the discrepancy? Because the Sox lead all of MLB in total batters faced. This may be partly because they give up too many baserunners, but probably mostly because they are one of only four teams in MLB (the others being the Jays, Mariners and Dodgers) that have played 114 games.

Also, using all of MLB as a denominator for pitching stats like this is probably unfair to AL teams, since pitching to pitchers naturally dilutes the walk numbers a bit for NL teams. Comparing just to AL teams, the Sox are 7th in both BB/9 and BB%. Not great, but middle of the pack.
 

DeadlySplitter

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This has been a peev of mine forever. Especially this year as we see the Dodgers(who played as many games as the Sox) and the Astros(who played almost as many) EASILY fielding a competitive team.
THe Dodgers are probably on their third straight trip to the WS and the Astros their second in 3 years.
How is it that they are able to be competitive and the Sox are not even close?
I think their much better pipelines down on the farm are a big factor.

that said, I'm as frustrated as you are we aren't as consistent as these top teams. This decade feels like each season has been everything going right, or everything going wrong.
 

jon abbey

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I don't really know what to do with these facts, but BOS has the highest run-scoring home park factor in the AL so far this year (http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) and their away W/L record is not bad at 32-26 (NY is 29-21). It's their very poor record at Fenway that is the problem, and I wonder if that is somehow connected to the home park run-scoring factor.
 

InsideTheParker

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The Dodgers don't grind their players into the ground nor do the Astros. The difference between the Red Sox and those two teams, quite frankly, is depth. They don't have to grind their good players because they can rotate guys into spots that result in very little drop-off. They utilize a 4-5 man bench to get everyone rest. They have enough quality starting pitchers that they're not resorting to using openers and bullpen games to cover for someone being on the IL.

Last year in particular, the Dodgers took full advantage of the 10-day IL to move guys through their rotation. They had seven starters make 15 or more starts, but none make more than 27. Please save the "grind them every day, rest when they're dead" old school bullshit. That's not the issue.
Weren't the performances of Velasquez and Johnson important last year from that point of view?
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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What I think is a priority is, if they want to keep Leon around; setting up your bench better. You have to assume he's an automatic out.
While I agree with this philosophy, if I have to watch another year of Sandy Leon at the plate; I don't know what I'm going to do. And I understand that he's far from the team's biggest problems right now, but he always seems to be at the plate with a man or two in scoring position, two out and the Sox down by a couple of runs.
 

Harry Hooper

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I don't really know what to do with these facts, but BOS has the highest run-scoring home park factor in the AL so far this year (http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) and their away W/L record is not bad at 32-26 (NY is 29-21). It's their very poor record at Fenway that is the problem, and I wonder if that is somehow connected to the home park run-scoring factor.
Do Bannister's special pre-game study sessions with the pitchers only happen in Fenway?
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I agree that it's not the recent drafts that are the problem, it's the first few Cherington drafts, particularly the unmitigated catastrophe that was 2013 (the cherry on the Bobby Valentine sundae). The total lack of any talent from that draft (and the lack of any but marginal talent from 2012 and 2014, more excusable since we were drafting lower those years) is really hurting the Sox now.
Unfortunately for the Sox, the 2013 draft first round is going to go down as one of the worst in history and the my guess is that the 2013 draft class is going to rank very low in total production when all is said and done. Another review.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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While I agree with this philosophy, if I have to watch another year of Sandy Leon at the plate; I don't know what I'm going to do. And I understand that he's far from the team's biggest problems right now, but he always seems to be at the plate with a man or two in scoring position, two out and the Sox down by a couple of runs.
I just tried to see if I could figure out what an average number of PAs with RISP looks like and I couldn't. I figured though that JD probably has been close to the top in terms of percentage at bats with RISP in the last two years. He has had RISP in 29.7 percent of his at bats since the start of last year. In that time, Sandy has had 26.1 percent. I didn't expect the numbers would be that close.

Edit: Xander is at 30 percent. So, maybe the range here is kind of narrow.
 

BaseballJones

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I think their much better pipelines down on the farm are a big factor.

that said, I'm as frustrated as you are we aren't as consistent as these top teams. This decade feels like each season has been everything going right, or everything going wrong.
The last 10 years, counting this one - look as follows:

2010: 89 wins, 3rd place
2011: 90 wins, 3rd place
2012: 69 wins, 5th place
2013: 97 wins, 1st place, WS champs
2014: 71 wins, 5th place
2015: 78 wins, 5th place
2016: 93 wins, 1st place, lost in divisional round
2017: 93 wins, 1st place, lost in divisional round
2018: 108 wins, 1st place, WS champs
2019: 59-55, on pace for 84 wins, 3rd place

TOT: 847-725 (.538 - on pace for 87 wins a season)
Four playoff appearances
Two WS championships

If that was the Red Sox every-ten-year cycle, would you take it? The last places SUCK. But two WS titles? Until 2004 happened, there isn't a Red Sox fan on planet earth who wouldn't have KILLED for that ten-year cycle.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I just want more seasons where the luck / performance levels aren't wildly above or below the average. (ok, always wildly above would be great, but never happening)
 

bosockboy

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The last 10 years, counting this one - look as follows:

2010: 89 wins, 3rd place
2011: 90 wins, 3rd place
2012: 69 wins, 5th place
2013: 97 wins, 1st place, WS champs
2014: 71 wins, 5th place
2015: 78 wins, 5th place
2016: 93 wins, 1st place, lost in divisional round
2017: 93 wins, 1st place, lost in divisional round
2018: 108 wins, 1st place, WS champs
2019: 59-55, on pace for 84 wins, 3rd place

TOT: 847-725 (.538 - on pace for 87 wins a season)
Four playoff appearances
Two WS championships

If that was the Red Sox every-ten-year cycle, would you take it? The last places SUCK. But two WS titles? Until 2004 happened, there isn't a Red Sox fan on planet earth who wouldn't have KILLED for that ten-year cycle.
The 2014 crater netted us Benintendi also.
 

mfried

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The inability of Red Sox starters to get through the first inning with less than 15-20 pitches is something that needs to be looked at.

- Hitters are not swinging at bad pitches? Starters throwing too many non-competitive pitches?
- Hitters fouling off good pitches? Starters inability to get an out with 2 strikes?

A 20-pitch first inning sets up bad things for the rest of the game. It used to be the Red Sox that forced that on opposing pitchers all the time.
When I watch the games I always judge the starting pitchers via the 20-pitch average standard (40 for 2, 60 for 3, etc.). I have very little confidence in a starting pitcher who throws more than 60 in the first three innings. Knowing how to foul off good pitches is crucial for the offense, preventing 6-7 pitch at-bats is crucial for the pitcher. When stuff is marginal (Porcello), command - e.g. forcing grounders - is crucial. Sale and even our one success story (Erod) depend too much on the strikeout (3-9 pitches) rather than weak contact.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Weren't the performances of Velasquez and Johnson important last year from that point of view?
Yes they were. 21 starts between them, 91 innings (4 and a third innings per start), 4.15 ERA. Not great, not terrible. About what you want out of your #6 and #7 starters.

I can't emphasize enough how the lack of depth in the rotation has killed this team. Wright started the year suspended, Johnson started the year hurt (and has barely contributed when he isn't on the IL), then Eovaldi went down three weeks in. 17 starts from Velazquez, Johnson, Weber, Smith, and Hernandez = 54.2 IP total. That's an average of about three and a third innings, 10 outs, per start. It's not good enough under normal circumstances, but combine that with the underperformances of Sale and Porcello, it spells disaster, particularly for a bullpen that lacks in quality depth as well.
 

DanoooME

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I don't really know what to do with these facts, but BOS has the highest run-scoring home park factor in the AL so far this year (http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) and their away W/L record is not bad at 32-26 (NY is 29-21). It's their very poor record at Fenway that is the problem, and I wonder if that is somehow connected to the home park run-scoring factor.
The interesting thing is it's not due to home runs, which is what most of the offensive explosion is based on. Fenway's HR factor is 0.884, which is 12% below average. The previous three years it was 0.969, 0.824, and 1.065. Yet, as a raw total, the Sox have 175 HR as a team, which is 16 above the league average and breaks down into 85 at Fenway in 56 games, versus 90 in 58 games on the road, so not much of a discrepancy between the splits. I'm not sure what that tells us, other than the pitching staff isn't overtly gophertastic.
 

Plympton91

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Some of what Bannister is preaching is the same thing being done in HOU. See this article from the guys who wrote about the HOU player development system: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting. For example, the high fastball:

No more than fifteen minutes after [Ryan Pressly] finished unpacking in the clubhouse [after being traded to HOU], Pressly was summoned into a meeting. In attendance were Astros pitching coach Brent Strom, bullpen coach Doug White, and multiple analysts from the front office. The Astros, Pressly learned, had a plan for him to be better, and the analysts launched into the details. “They sat me down and they put up all these x, y charts and all this other stuff,” Pressly says. “It almost sounded like they were speaking in a different language. I just raised my hand and said, ‘Guys, just tell me what to throw and not to throw.’” They told him his two-seam fastball to lefties was ineffective but that they loved his curve and hoped he’d throw it more. They also suggested he elevate his four-seam fastball and throw his slider slightly more to make his fastball more effective.
* * * *
Pressly learned from watching his new teammates more than from anything they said. “If guys are pitching up in the zone and throwing curveballs off fastballs up in the zone, you can clearly see it,” Pressly says, adding, “It starts to click—I have that same exact stuff. So if they’re having success ...” The montage of fruitless swings Pressly admired from the pen was a better sales pitch than any analyst’s graph. “It’s just the Astros’ philosophy,” he says. “They just have a different kind of mindset over there.”
High fastball may have been the right pitch a year ago, but teams can now adjust to it. I also assume a high fastball has different effectiveness at 90 (Porcello) and 94 (Workman) and 98 (Barnes). I don’t see how this can be a one-size-fits-all strategy, at least for very long.
 

Plympton91

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I've been obsessed with one stat.

This year, we're 6th in all of MLB in walks allowed. The only teams worse than us are bottom feeders, and surprisingly, Atlanta.

In the bottom 6 in walks allowed are TB, MFY's, Dodgers, MN, Cleveland and Houston. Hmmm....

Last year, we were 17th in walks allowed. It makes a difference. I have to believe there is a team strategy (who makes this? Levangie? Bannister? Cora?) to pitch around hitters. Aren't you sick of the 0-2 (and 1-2) fast ball up out of the zone. It never fucking works. We miss there, we miss outside and we end up walking another dude. Whoever is responsible for the decision not to go after hitters should be fired.
Hallelujah. The depressing thing is if you look through the minor leagues it’s endemic there too. This whole organization has an aversion to throwing strikes.

I know there was an article a few weeks back where the relievers made it sound like walks were the new market inefficiency they were trying to exploit. They made it sound like they were playing the game in an alternate universe where half the balls that struck the bat turned into extra base hits or home runs, instead of the actual percentage of about 10%. Sounded to me more like they were pitching scared.

So that “first in strikeouts” thing is tied to all the walks. On 3-2, they’re willing to see if a batter will chase and content to walk him if he doesn’t. Lunacy to me. Plus that ties into pitch counts - if you lose somebody 3-2, you’re starting a whole new at bat, so here come more pitches.
 

jose melendez

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People will argue "Dombrowski knows better than you do", which I will readily grant, but the dumpster fire known as the Red Sox pitching staff is laughable. Yes, I know we are spoiled this year coming off arguably the great Red Sox team ever. But the signs were there even last year. Sale has been laughable - and the only thing I can think of at this point since everyone swears it isn't physical is that he must be tipping pitches. If so it falls to the pitching coach to identify and "fix" the problem. But I honestly have zero confidence in Dana LeVangie's ability as a pitching coach. I recall thinking when I saw how spring training was being handled that it was a disaster waiting to happen. The pitchers did not appear ready to start the season andthe "we are pacing them so they will be strong in October" has blown up in their faces, as there isn't going to be October baseball in Boston. I have seen little if any growth in any pitcher on the roster in the past two seasons.

In 2004 the Red Sox won with honestly a suspect pitching staff - but it was the case where everything Theo did in that magical season seemed to work. Same thing in 2018 for Dombrowski. But in this day and age in the Show you can't be successful having a "closer by committee" - it simply doesn't work. Yes, the Sox are over a barrel because of the luxury tax but that is because of the very questionable decisions made on players like Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland. IMO, those dollars would have been better spent on shoring up the bullpen that everyone knew coming into the season was a weakness. When coupled with the poor management of the staff's off-season preparation and spring training decision to "prepare for October" - you have your answer for why this season has turned into an unmitigated travesty.

Yes changes need to happen - and they aren't all made with on the field personnel...
I resent the charachterization of the 2004 staff as suspect. We had three starters with ERA plus above 120. One who was at league average (Wake) and one who was awful (Lowe) but had a history of performing. We also got good performance from our bullpen top 5 and excellent work from Foulke and TImlin. WE had the third best ERA in the AL and the second most strike outs.
 

Plympton91

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Unfortunately for the Sox, the 2013 draft first round is going to go down as one of the worst in history and the my guess is that the 2013 draft class is going to rank very low in total production when all is said and done. Another review.
This is a silly noncontextual apology. Austin Meadows was sitting right there for the taking, instead they chose Trey Ball. He was last seen on twitter playing video games with his friends. Hopefully he invested his bonus well. Austin Meadows is one of the biggest reasons Tampa Bay is kicking our ass.

Hunter Dozier, who went #8 is putting up a 900 OPS for KC, Dominic Smith at #11 could probably be playing 1B for us this year too. Tim Anderson #17 is coming into his own in Chicago, and Marco Gonzales at #19 would look wonderful in this rotation. JP Crawford at #16 had lots of trade value.

The Red Sox totally blew the pick by trying to be “smartest kid in the room” or because they were nickel and diming signing bonuses.

Blew it. No amount of apologia can justify that pick.
 

lexrageorge

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This is a silly noncontextual apology. Austin Meadows was sitting right there for the taking, instead they chose Trey Ball. He was last seen on twitter playing video games with his friends. Hopefully he invested his bonus well. Austin Meadows is one of the biggest reasons Tampa Bay is kicking our ass.

Hunter Dozier, who went #8 is putting up a 900 OPS for KC, Dominic Smith at #11 could probably be playing 1B for us this year too. Tim Anderson #17 is coming into his own in Chicago, and Marco Gonzales at #19 would look wonderful in this rotation. JP Crawford at #16 had lots of trade value.

The Red Sox totally blew the pick by trying to be “smartest kid in the room” or because they were nickel and diming signing bonuses.

Blew it. No amount of apologia can justify that pick.
All of what you say is correct. However, Dombrowski was with the Tigers at the time. I doubt anyone involved in the decision to draft Ball is still with the organization.
 

johnnywayback

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They hired Dombrowski because they wanted to go all-in on a different strategy. Instead of the Epstein/Cherington model of patiently building depth, developing talent, and obsessing about value (a model they didn't always execute well), they wanted a model where you get the elite guys you want and everything else comes second.

I think that strategy gets you fewer, but better, shots at winning a championship. And if you're lucky enough to cash in within the shorter window, you get celebrated.

I didn't like that strategy then, I don't like it now, and if they want to go back to the Epstein model, I'll be all for giving Eddie Romero a shot to implement it. But if they stick with this model, we just have to live with seasons like this -- seasons where, because we've spent all the money and traded all the prospects to get the guys we have, there isn't much we can do when the guys we have underperform.

The reason I don't like the strategy is because it puts so much weight on your ability to correctly evaluate players. Moves like the Sale trade and extension, the overpay for Kimbrel (as opposed to getting a lesser closer in free agency), the Thornburg trade, etc. are great if you are correct that Sale, Kimbrel, and Thornburg are who you hope they'll be. Kimbrel was, and the trade was therefore good. Thornburg wasn't, and the trade was therefore bad. Sale? Well, the Sale we traded for was the guy we thought he was, but the one we extended doesn't seem to be.

So, to me, the question isn't whether I trust Dombrowski to get the vast majority of these calls right going forward, whether it's picking an offer in a Mookie trade situation or assessing Benintendi's value for a long-term extension or deciding who to trade Dalbec for. I trust him as much as I trust anyone, I guess. It's that I don't really trust anyone all that much. I'd rather go with a safer, less-variance, more patient strategy. But that's a matter of taste.
 
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High fastball may have been the right pitch a year ago, but teams can now adjust to it. I also assume a high fastball has different effectiveness at 90 (Porcello) and 94 (Workman) and 98 (Barnes). I don’t see how this can be a one-size-fits-all strategy, at least for very long.
I don't think the high, hard one is something that can be adjusted to. Batters will be thinking about breaking pitches and will sometimes overreact to a fastball and chase it up and out of the zone. It's been a pitching strategy for probably a hundred years and some guys don't have the strength or bat speed to catch up. McGuire often struck out on that pitch until his bat speed mysteriously improved.

I was wiffing on high fastballs in Babe Ruth League long before Bannister was even born.
 

EricFeczko

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Somebody has to be the one to make this post. Might as well be me.

The Red Sox' pitching staff is:

8th in the AL in ERA (7th in adjusted ERA-)
5th in the AL in FIP and xFIP (both raw and adjusted versions)
4th in the AL in SIERA

Their ERA minus FIP number is not only highest in the league, but it's more than half again as large as the 2nd highest. Whether this is bad luck or bad situational pitching, I don't know, but it seems important.

None of these rankings are outstanding (though 4th in SIERA is pretty damn good). But when phrases like "dumpster fire" and "abysmal" get thrown around, I think context is important. The Red Sox' pitching staff this year has been, at worst, league-average. It's hard to see that because the offensive explosion this year is so extreme.
I'm glad you did -- I've noticed this for awhile too, just haven't had the chance to post.

If you look at the prior three years, the ERA-FIP number in 2019 stands out as a stark outlier, as does BABIP (which is 20 points higher). Both suggest problems with defense and/or luck moreso than pitching.
 

billy ashley

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man, folks are strangely angry about 2013's draft.

Meadows was who I wanted after Frazier went off the board. And yeah, he's a good outfielder this year, but he's still not a center-fielder. But that draft sucked. They took a risk on a left handed starter they liked. It didn't work out. It happens. Not for nothing the guy most of us wanted hasn't done shit.

Below is a list of all the players picked after Ball who've accumulated 3 bWAR since being drafted, those with more than 10 are listed with *:

13. Renfroe
17. Anderson
19. Gonzalez
32. *Judge*
34. Manaea
38. Lorenzen
39. Knebel
44. Williams
71. Pinder
124. *Bellinger*
175. Boyd
179. Frazier
235. Graveman
240. Keller
249. Mancini
260. Garver
336. Green
356. McNiel
665. Voit


BTW, if you go 1-6 the list is as follows:

2. *Bryant*
3. *Gray*

This was a historically bad draft. Blaming 2013 on why Boston's system is thin is out of step with reality. Would Boston be better if they drafted Meadows? Sure. Would 2013 still have been a shitty draft for them had they drafted Meadows? Yeah. It was a bad year. For everyone not the Cubs, Yankees, or Dodgers.
 

uncannymanny

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Jan 12, 2007
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High fastball may have been the right pitch a year ago, but teams can now adjust to it. I also assume a high fastball has different effectiveness at 90 (Porcello) and 94 (Workman) and 98 (Barnes). I don’t see how this can be a one-size-fits-all strategy, at least for very long.
This was exactly the concerning thing for me just reading the Bannister quotes. He sounds a little high on his own supply.

The Astros quotes are entirely different. They’re analyzing an individual player based on his skill set.
 

Wallball Tingle

union soap
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,518
I thought this post by lexrageorge in the Dombrowski poll thread was really good, and perhaps a counterargument to the idea that DD has traded away the farm in his aim for a title.

Just running down the list of players that Dombrowski traded away (mostly chronological order):

Alejandro De Aza: Out of baseball.

Logan Allen (Kimbrel): Struggling in his call up to the Padres, and was since traded to Cleveland. Still only 22, but future role is unclear.

Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel): Since released, and now in Arizona's minor league system. 27.

Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): Career minor league line of 0.237/0.290/0.374/0.665. Had a cup of coffee with Padres last season.

Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Probably the most exciting prospect in the Kimbrel trade, has had 3 mostly meh seasons with the Padres with career OPS+ of 90.

Jonathan Aro (Carson Smith): Bouncing around the minors.

Wade Miley (Carson Smith): For the most part, he's been decidedly average since he was trade. But he is having a nice season for the Astros right now.

Wendell Rio (Aaron Hill): Bouncing around the minors.

Aaron Wilkerson (Aaron Hill): Who cares.

Jose Almonte (Brad Ziegler): Unable to get above A-ball.

Luis Basabe (Brad Ziegler, Chris Sale): Ditto.

Anderson Espinoza (Drew Pomerantz): Little Pedro hasn't thrown a pitch in anger in nearly 3 years. He'll likely be 22 if/when his career resumes. This name should be mentioned whenever someone claims that Tommy John surgery is routine nowadays and so should not raise any concerns.

Pat Light (Fernando Abad): Who cares.

Victor Diaz (Sale): Out of baseball.

Michael Kopech (Sale): Rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If we blame DD for picking up a pitcher that gets hurt, should we credit him every time he trades a pitcher that gets similarly injured?

Yoan Moncada (Sale): Having a good season under the radar for the White Sox.

Josh Pennington (Thornburg): Single A player at 22.

Mauricio Dubon (Thornburg): Had 2 major league at bats before being traded for Pomeranz.

Travis Shaw (Thornburg): Has cooled off significantly after 2 breakout seasons.

Yeison Coca (Thornburg): Completed the Thornburg trade. 20 y/o in single-A.

Clay Buchholz (Josh Tobias): Has had 5 starts for the Blue Jays this season. With a 6.57 ERA.

Gregory Santos (Nunez): Was 17 at the time of the trade. In single-A, but obviously a long way from sniffing the majors.

Shaun Anderson (Nunez): One of Dombrowski's draft picks. Has started 15 games for the Giants this year, but his numbers do not indicate his presence would solve what ails the Sox this season.

Gerson Bautista (Reed): Became part of the Cano trade. Throwing strikes seems to be an issue (9.5 BB/9 is pretty bad, albeit in only 13 innings).

Jamie Callahan (Reed): Since released by Mets, now in low minors for the Giants at 24.

Stephen Nogosek (Reed): It's obviously too early to conclude anything from the 6 ML innings he's pitched in relief for the Mets this season. But based on his minor league numbers he likely seems to be slated for mid-bullpen type role (think Hembree as his ceiling).

Rafael Rincones (Rajai Davis): Has a 0.788 OPS this season at age 19. Only problem is that it is in rookie league.

Deven Merrero (Josh Taylor): In the Miami organization after 78 nondescript at-bats for the D-Backs last season.

Roenis Elias (Eric Filla): Still amazed at the angst at the time he was DFA'd due to a roster crunch during a 108-win season. Did find a role as middle-bullpen guy with Seattle before his trade to the Nats.

Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Hit 5 dingers for the Fisher Cats this season. Too bad the guy the Sox got for him didn't amount to anything in October.

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Established middle reliever for the Rays.

Williams Jerez (Kinsler): Now with the Giants after posting a 71 ERA+ for the Angels last season.

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Doing a good job as solid late reliever for the Angels.

Is there really anyone on that list that we wish the Sox had instead of the 2018 season? Moncada is good, and Buttrey and Beeks would be admittedly useful right now. But not sure you can blame Dombrowski for either one. Shaw for Thornburg is probably the biggest miss, but injuries happen.
 

Eddie Bressoud

New Member
Aug 3, 2014
57
"I've been obsessed with one stat.

"This year, we're 6th in all of MLB in walks allowed. The only teams worse than us are bottom feeders, and surprisingly, Atlanta."

I agree with Plympton 91 on this stat. Someone is to blame. Did Chris Sale just go back to basics in his most recent start?
Wonder what is to changing things? Levangie, the Whisperer (Bannister), catchers, or Alex?
 

richgedman'sghost

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Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,868
ct
I think their much better pipelines down on the farm are a big factor.

that said, I'm as frustrated as you are we aren't as consistent as these top teams. This decade feels like each season has been everything going right, or everything going wrong.
This will be the first year since 2011 that the Red Sox have not finished either first or last in the division. Beginning in 2012; the Sox went last, first last last first first first. It truly was all or nothing.