I would love to watch this forum run an NBA franchise. Each B2B road loss would have amusing consequences. There would be no process. Just results.
Is it time to talk about Coach Brad?
- Thread starter Deathofthebambino
- Start date
I don't think CBS is the problem but I'd be totally fine with him going to Indiana. I think the C's would find a suitable replacement pretty easily.
It's a lot of bad luck. The 2018 team very well may have won a title if Hayward and Kyrie were healthy, and it was impossible to predict that Kyrie go full Kyrie in 2019. Essentially flipping a broken IT for Kyrie was slick as hell at the time. I can't blame Ainge for Hayward and Horford walking either.
I agree with most of this. CBS and the Celts have been snake bit since Gordo snapped his leg. They are consistently losing games in the last 3-4 minutes they had been winning the last few years and that has to eat away at team morale and build on panic and poor game decisions, At this point managing the adversity aspect of an underperforming team and keeping them on the same page and playing hard until they get healthy and a real rotation established is important. I may be wearing emerald colored glasses but I don't think they are that far away (add a wing that can hit a 3) with an an almost healthy kemba and Marcus along with a ticking TL, this team can do some damage in the post-season.
I'm fairly certain that Ainge realizes that the roster this season has holes. Ainge is also been open about essentially treating the season as a bridge year without using those words, and Wyc has been 100% behind him. The team does want to reset the tax this year, unless something magically falls from the sky (which ain't happening). Firing Brad is not going to solve the problems with this team, and Ainge and Wyc both know that.
However, if this season results in a playoff DNQ (unexpected), or a loss in the play-in round (unlikely but not impossible either), and Ainge makes some upgrades to the roster this offseason (expected), and the team stumbles to another 20-20 start next season, Brad's seat could indeed start to get a bit warm. There's a lot of "if this and that happen" in this scenario, and so I don't think it's likely. But not impossible either.
Ainge will be around unless and until Tatum/Brown leave after multiple years of early playoff exits and the Celtics have nothing to show for it but dashed fan expectations.
However, if this season results in a playoff DNQ (unexpected), or a loss in the play-in round (unlikely but not impossible either), and Ainge makes some upgrades to the roster this offseason (expected), and the team stumbles to another 20-20 start next season, Brad's seat could indeed start to get a bit warm. There's a lot of "if this and that happen" in this scenario, and so I don't think it's likely. But not impossible either.
Ainge will be around unless and until Tatum/Brown leave after multiple years of early playoff exits and the Celtics have nothing to show for it but dashed fan expectations.
Stevens has proven that he is a good coach. The only reason to fire him would be if you think he has lost the locker room. It doesn’t seem like he has lost the team but it is certainly discouraging to hear him make the same comments about ball movement and effort after every loss.
I have been very on team "Stevens is a plus, not a problem." I also fully agree that this roster has holes if the goal is to compete for a championship.
However, this team, with the exact roster it has, should absolutely be better on both ends. The defense has been a tire fire for most of the year, and Stevens has generally gotten better performances from worse players in the past.
Is this team a contender to win the East right now? NO.
Should they be .500 and getting torched defensively while showing no offensive progress, and probably regression? NO.
I think it's fair to start monitoring whether Stevens is getting tuned out, even though I would be extremely hesitant to make that call until more data comes in.
I think everyone is in agreement that the C's have a very flawed roster. But does anyone around here believe it's more flawed than Detroit, Orlando, Washington, Cleveland, the Knicks, Atlanta or Sacramento?
Because we're 6-7 against those teams.
At least we have Houston and Minnesota coming up in a couple weeks, I guess.
Because we're 6-7 against those teams.
At least we have Houston and Minnesota coming up in a couple weeks, I guess.
I agree with all of this.
Ainge is criticized for not going big, then gets beat up for the guys he signed underperforming (like anyone knew that Kyrie was unreliable back then, Average Al, Gordon's broken leg, etc.) . He gets beaten up for his longshot draft picks and for the low ceiling ones.
Stevens is criticized for not working the refs enough, giving rookies not enough developmental minutes, not going for regular season wins hard enough.
3 of 4 ECF is fantastic. No it's not the goal, but it's evidence of a smart organization, top to bottom.
I think everyone would be in agreement on both (a) flawed roster; and (b) that the team should be better than 20-20. As you correctly point out, it's not like their schedule has been exceptionally difficult.
I think everyone can also agree on the fact that this season has some unusual and potentially extenuating circumstances that will make it difficult to make an objective judgment on where this team really stands. And that this team's future is tied directly and inexorably to the progress that their 2 young All-Stars make in the coming years.
I also think everyone should agree that we may have expected too much of Tatum by anointing him as an automatic Top 10 player in the league for 2021; he ain't there yet. I do think he gets there, but it's still way early.
The problem is that jettisoning Stevens solely due to underperformance this oddball season could easily cause far more problems than it solves, both short term and long term. Anyone that disagrees should look at teams that are constantly jettisoning coaches at the first sign of trouble; more often than not, it bites them back. The Sixers may be an exception, as it's clear Embiid and Simmons needed different coaching. But I don't think this season's Celtics team is a good comp at all to last season's 76'ers.
This league is filled with good and very good coaches who were fired due to the organization simply needing a change in direction. I’ve placed the majority of the blame on Ainge two of the past three seasons.....first with accumulating too much individual talent with players who need the ball and now with two little talent with players who you don’t want to have the ball. He’s turned over legit NBA shot makers in Hayward, Rozier, and Morris without replacing their offensive firepower.
My point is that whether Brad is fired or retained it won’t have anything to do with him being a good coach and more to do with it being easier to fire a coach than it is the players or even a GM.
I think we can also agree that the Celtics over the past few years have had these circumstances come up a lot (Hayward's leg, Kyrie, playoff injuries) and though these are not really anybody's fault, fan frustration is a natural outcome when it keeps happening.
When I stared this thread (over a month ago, mind you), it wasn't about calling for firing Brad. I don't want that to happen right now, and don't think it's going to. It was meant to start a discussion about his coaching, in game decisions, rotations, etc. I still want to know why a guy like Nesmith cant' see the floor while Grant and Semi puke all over themselves night after night, for example.
But if folks think Brad is the next Bill Belichick of basketball, and he just needs a better GM and better players, then I guess that's what it is. Hopefully, it'll come together in the next couple years, because if it doesn't, it won't matter as the J's are going to be taking their talents elsewhere when their current contracts expire, and chase the ring with another team. That's what I'm afraid of more than anything, and I think there is plenty of room for improvement from Danny to Brad to the players, I just felt like we needed a threat to discuss Brad's coaching at some point.
It is worth remembering that while many fans expect players and teams develop on a linear fashion, most often development occurs in fits and starts with the occasional backslide.
CBS gets at least one more year before the seat should be warm. He's proven himself to be a good coach, one many franchises would be excited to have. It would be unwise to toss him aside at this juncture.
If provided with a more functional roster and a non-covid impacted season, we see a continued plateau then its time to ask whether the locker room needs a new voice. Even if it does that may not be any reflection on Stevens. We have seen plenty of examples where a roster and a coach have gotten stale and you just need a change. To quote William Munny (and paraphrase Snoop), sometimes "Deserve's got nothing to do with it."
CBS gets at least one more year before the seat should be warm. He's proven himself to be a good coach, one many franchises would be excited to have. It would be unwise to toss him aside at this juncture.
If provided with a more functional roster and a non-covid impacted season, we see a continued plateau then its time to ask whether the locker room needs a new voice. Even if it does that may not be any reflection on Stevens. We have seen plenty of examples where a roster and a coach have gotten stale and you just need a change. To quote William Munny (and paraphrase Snoop), sometimes "Deserve's got nothing to do with it."
My own view is that the pundits are predicting a shit-ton of player movement this coming offseason. And with a TPE and some tradeable assets (maybe not gold assets, but at least some silver in there), Ainge should be able to at least upgrade some of the #4 through #8 spots on the roster. And between improvements from the J's and likely R Williams as well, that may be enough in the next year or two to vault the Celtics to the next level of contender status.
If Ainge doesn't succeed in doing that, and the J's improvement stalls, Stevens will indeed be the one to take the fall. Because everyone will be getting desperate knowing the J's clock is ticking. But that's next season's drama at the earliest.
I agree that nothing is likely to happen any time soon. But you are delusional if you think that the option does not at least occur to the owners from time to time. I would guess they even discuss it, if not to quickly reject it. When the team plays mediocre ball for this long, I think it's impossible to believe that the owners never consider the most extreme option.
I'm sure they consider pretty much every possibility. That doesn't mean they didn't dismiss it in 0.2 seconds and have a really good laugh over it. GM's are pretty thorough. If the team somehow managed to miss the playoffs, I'm sure it will be brought up.
A separate question, If they finish with the 7 seed and lose the play in game or whatever, does that mean they are lottery bound?
I think Ainge and Stevens are fine but I also think the Celtics would find suitable replacements. They are replaceable. Maybe not easily, but replaceable nonetheless.
Of course. Any responsible, large organization has succession strategy for every key person and evaluates routinely.
But this "omg if they shit the bed this year, Wyc's gonna DO SOMETHING" talk simply has to stop.
The ownership was briefed on possible outcomes good and bad. Brad and Danny sync constantly. None of this is a surprise to them. Weird season, weird results. They won't likely rip up the script right now because Joe from Quincy thinks that a shakeup is necessary.
Yeah, that was not at all what I said. Or anyone else in this thread said. You're tilting at windmills.
If the Cs miss the playoffs or lose in the first round, it would be irresponsible for ownership not to consider canning Brad and Danny. Even if only briefly.
If your point is "hey upper management and ownership routinely evaluates middle and line management, particularly when the results were less than forecast", fantastic. We agree that there's a greater than zero percent chance that big changes are made.
The number is so small that it hardly seems worth talking about, but it is undoubtedly greater than zero percent.
Brad, more zone please.
As of March 22nd, the Celtics have the 26th-ranked half-court defense, according to Synergy Sports Tech. Their man-to-man looks allow over one point per possession, give up a score on 45% of their possessions and have been lackluster in their energy and attention to detail.
When the C’s have been in big games and need to steal a few minutes on defense, they’ve gone to a stopgap measure, a morphing 2-3 zone.
Stevens is hardly the only coach to go to a zone. In fact, the Celtics are 8th in zone frequency, with only 4.1% of their defensive possessions lined up away from man-to-man. That’s far behind the league-leaders, Charlotte Hornets (14.1%) and Miami Heat (10.9%). What Stevens has embraced this year, that he hasn’t in the past, is using it within the flow of the game, not just in situations that would help thwart sideline inbound plays.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/3/28/22344587/in-the-zone-what-makes-boston-celtics-zone-defense-great-robert-williams-jaylen-brown-marcus-smart
Brad has gone with larger wings up top (JT/JB) which I like. TL at the 5 and Marcus/Grant at wing.
As of March 22nd, the Celtics have the 26th-ranked half-court defense, according to Synergy Sports Tech. Their man-to-man looks allow over one point per possession, give up a score on 45% of their possessions and have been lackluster in their energy and attention to detail.
When the C’s have been in big games and need to steal a few minutes on defense, they’ve gone to a stopgap measure, a morphing 2-3 zone.
Stevens is hardly the only coach to go to a zone. In fact, the Celtics are 8th in zone frequency, with only 4.1% of their defensive possessions lined up away from man-to-man. That’s far behind the league-leaders, Charlotte Hornets (14.1%) and Miami Heat (10.9%). What Stevens has embraced this year, that he hasn’t in the past, is using it within the flow of the game, not just in situations that would help thwart sideline inbound plays.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/3/28/22344587/in-the-zone-what-makes-boston-celtics-zone-defense-great-robert-williams-jaylen-brown-marcus-smart
Brad has gone with larger wings up top (JT/JB) which I like. TL at the 5 and Marcus/Grant at wing.
The big wings up top zone is nice, but the main thing this team needs is to not suck executing their base defense.
Tatum and Smart have looked a bit better in that regard lately, so there’s hope.
Hoping it gives the Jays a defensive breather and gives the opponent another look.
Would like to see JT, free safety, return to interrupting passing lanes again.
Zone also frees up Jaylen to add some on-ball pressure with his long arms knowing that RobWilliams has his back at the rim.
Jaylen is definitely better in a zone as one of the high defenders. Hides his off-ball/rotation weaknesses.
Thanks for posting. Someone should tell CoachSpins that Brad won't be needing to steal any minutes with The Is anymore.
Also, BOS's D has looked much better the last two games. First game might be chalked up to their incredible shooting (and thus being able to set their defense) and second game was basically against a G-League Team but the Cs seem to be much better at the rim with TL starting.
I have to bump this after tonight. I am pretty damn certain that Brad is preaching attacking the paint and ball movement every day, but they’re just not doing it. They’re capable but they refuse to play that way. It’s the same thing every single game. If the team won’t listen, the coach has lost them.
Caught Brad's presser after the game. Fairly negative as far as he goes, even on the softballs. Figured I would post some highlights here for those who couldn't catch it:
(Paraphrasing)
Brad:
Q: You do this against every team and you give credit to the other team. you guys are the constant. is there a personnel thing?
Brad:
Q: how much of this falls on you?
Brad:
Maybe I've got to use every time out, shuffle sub.. I don't know. This is a team that I'm coaching, it should all fall on me.
Q: Back to the script of this season. What faith do you have that you'll be able to pull things together the last 25 games here?
Brad:
(Paraphrasing)
Brad:
- Most frustrating thing is let adversity take hold for too long
- Same old story 12 minute droughts because we don't respond, we pick ourselves up and we've got a big deficit and we play the way can (when down) We have got to respond better in the middle of the game.
- Feel bad the new guys are hearing this, but it's the same old script. Not good enough from our side
Q: You do this against every team and you give credit to the other team. you guys are the constant. is there a personnel thing?
Brad:
- Haven't responded to adveristy in the middle of games well.
- We just let go. we can't do that.
- 6th different line up in 6 games that being said, i don't know how to try personnel until we have personnel
- gotta find resolve
Q: how much of this falls on you?
Brad:
Maybe I've got to use every time out, shuffle sub.. I don't know. This is a team that I'm coaching, it should all fall on me.
Q: Back to the script of this season. What faith do you have that you'll be able to pull things together the last 25 games here?
Brad:
- As a coach, you always want to have faith
- No time to dream about the future, need to do it now.
- Need to compete with great urgency all the way through the game
- Don't care about the future or first 48 games
- It's time to show up. We need to play like we played in the 4th quarter (consistently)
Karalis going hard on the Celtics being the same team this season as last (essentially) with Jaylen, asking him to pinpoint the problem. He responds he doesn't know how to answer that and negativity doesn't help anything.
Perk saying as a response to that, basically, if you don't want to have to answer those questions then win the game. One of the few times I agree with him.
Perk saying as a response to that, basically, if you don't want to have to answer those questions then win the game. One of the few times I agree with him.
I'm getting a little tired of the excuses. Other teams have players out. Other teams don't have time to practice. Other teams are in the pandemic, too.
Maybe this team just isn't that good.
Maybe this team just isn't that good.
I don't. I think Danny makes a major overhaul of the roster. Recent whispers from the media seem to be pointing at major changes in that regard instead of the coach.
I haven't listened yet, but hopefully he was anti-Danny
. This roster needs a lot of love.
A bit, mostly he (correctly) was pointing out that the players that are here need to play better.I haven't listened yet, but hopefully he was anti-Danny
I think there is going to be roster changes (I think Smart is likely gone), but honestly it isn't roster construction that made the same players play much worse on defense. A lot of that is effort and performance. This team succeeded in past years in part because of a defensive system that stressed a lot of effort, precision, communication and trust. This year almost nobody is putting in the same levels of effort, and the precision has been down. Like last night.... that wasn't system based, that was guys lazing into switches, dying on screens etc.
Whiffing on the past 2 low lottery picks was a killer; not really Stevens' fault.
I agree that I expect a major overhaul of the roster this offseason. If not, both seats (Ainge's and Stevens') could get very warm.
I agree that I expect a major overhaul of the roster this offseason. If not, both seats (Ainge's and Stevens') could get very warm.
As he should be publicly. Clearly, Brad hasn't done a good job this year but none of us would be surprised with a 55 win effort next year if the right moves are mad from a personnel standpoint. On that front, for the first time ever, I'm thinking Jaylen and/or Smart won't be completely off limits this year. Highly doubt Jaylen gets moved unless Danny feels he needs to go hard after Beal to keep Tatum happy but I think Smart is fair game.
Except that we have tons of evidence from prior years that the players on it are pretty good, or at least a lot better than this.
The bar isn’t “better than the Nets”; it’s “above .500”. Not being able to do that is pathetic, and something is clearly wrong.
They really didn't. I've covered it before in many threads, but the last 2 picks (Nesmith/Langford) have performed right about as expected for 1.5 years of a #14 and .5 years of a #14, those aren't the type of picks that step in as contributors on good teams.
THis Ainge quote is telling. It's basically a straight shot at Tatum, Kemba and Smart.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1377616851996442628
This roster isn't top 5 in the league, but it is more than good enough that they should be the 4 seed right now. The biggest problem for this team has been execution by it's best players, and honestly... I usually hate the "mentally weak" radio tropes, but this is not a team that has handled adversity well, especially Tatum.
This. There is absolutely no reason for this team to be under .500 two thirds of the way through the season. There have been a lot of moving pieces with injuries and COVID which hasn't helped, but they should still be better than a couple games under .500. I guess the green colored glasses view is that they started 8-3 and if they can get everyone healthy by the playoffs maybe they will gel and surprise, but that seems highly optimistic for several reasons.
Yeah. Here's the list of teams with multiple all-stars:
Nets (Durant / Harden / Irving)
Clippers (Kawhi / George)
Lakers (LeBron / AD)
Sixers (Embiid / Simmons)
Suns (Booker / Paul)
Jazz (Mitchell / Gobert)
Celtics (Tatum / Brown)
The Celtics are the clear outlier. Everyone else is a top contender and they combine for a 196-90 (.685) record. Meanwhile, the Celtics are sitting here at 23-25 (.479). The supporting casts can't explain away all of that delta.
I'm tired of hearing about roster issues in the context of Brad. Do we have a worse roster than the Knicks, Spurs, Hornets, etc.? Because all of those teams are better than we are right now.
Shit, we've been beaten by the Wizards, the Pistons, the Kings, the Cavs, and on and on and on. How about their rosters?
This team's roster may not be good enough to win a title, or even make it to the ECF, but they sure as shit aren't a bottom 10 roster either. They are 12-18 in their last 30 games. That's bottom 10.
Shit, we've been beaten by the Wizards, the Pistons, the Kings, the Cavs, and on and on and on. How about their rosters?
This team's roster may not be good enough to win a title, or even make it to the ECF, but they sure as shit aren't a bottom 10 roster either. They are 12-18 in their last 30 games. That's bottom 10.
Yes, we do. When will people open their eyes and see this? We are a 2 player team with very little hope of getting better if we stay as is.
It's an interesting question where the Tatum/Brown combo stands among that list. Nets, Clippers, Lakers and Sixers have better tandems this year. Jazz arguably do as well. All have a much better supporting cast at this stage, especially given the huge regressions of Kemba and Smart.
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I don't think that lack of talent is a defense of Brad. I do think that Brad's history and his moves this year are a defense of Brad. I think the Ainge quote is right on. Yes Brad can tweak some things, but your best players have to play like it.... on both ends. Now, for some the answer is... fire the coach and hope the re-set gets better performance. For others (I'm on of these) the answer is... shake up your roster, bring in new faces and try to re-establish an identity around your stars. You can switch coaches, but I don't think Brad is the main problem.
No we don't. There is no situation under which we are a worse roster than those teams right now in terms of talent an track record. Our top 2 are not only better, so are a number of our other players. Smart, Kemba, TL, Never Google would all be key rotation players for those teams.
Well, that's partly because All-Stars mostly come from teams with winning records. Adebayo and Butler are an All-Star level duo whose team has struggled just as much as Boston's.
Please, the Hornets are in a much better position going forward if Ball is 100%. We have the two best players who are already close to their peak with nothing else on the roster to improve us. We are relying on Brown or Tatum to take another leap and the odds of that are astronimical.
This team's roster is shit and we have like one tradeable asset in Marcus Smart. People overrate this team's talent and position going forward. It's not 2017 anymore.