Is Choo an Option?

[nvalvo]

Here's a thought experiment. Shin-Soo Choo is a horrible defensive outfielder, but a tremendous hitter. Except he's only decent against lefties — he loses his power, but maintains a respectable .340 OBP. But we have a tiny left field and Jonny Gomes. 
 
I might be interested in pursuing a Choo-JBJ-Victorino outfield, with Gomes as the fourth OF. 

Against RHP: Against LHP:

Bradley CF Victorino RF
Choo LF Pedroia 2B
Pedroia 2B Ortiz DH
Ortiz DH Bogaerts SS
Bogaerts SS Carp 1B
Carp 1B Gomes LF
Middlebrooks 3B Ross C
AJP C Middlebrooks 3B
Victorino RF Bradley CF


Nava doesn't really have a spot, so I'm not sure the upgrade from Nava's .368 wOBA against RHP to Choo's .402 is really worth $100 million. Just kicking an idea around. 

 

[Pumpsie]

I would look to Choo right now. Guy who gets on base over 40% of the time would look nice at the top of the order; and you can play him in LF.

That being said, he's probably looking for the kind of money the Sox offered Ellsbury, right?

Choo is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive outfielder in the game today.  He would drive us all completely bonkers out there (someone would, no doubt, create a new stat called "Choos" which would mean "taking bad routes to batted balls") no matter where we played him (he was a -12 defensive runs the last year he played a corner position).  He batted .251 away from Cincinnati last year (as opposed to .318 at home) and he can't hit lefties at all (.215 in 2013.)  However, if the team believes that Ortiz doesn't have too many years left before his expiration date, and we could use Choo at DH where he is destined to end up sooner or later) then it might be worth a gamble.  Beltran, with short years, might be the better play.  But if you think that Ellsbury was a bad bargain at what he ended up with, Choo is likely to be a much worse one.

 

[TomRicardo]

Choo is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive outfielder in the game today.  He would drive us all completely bonkers out there (someone would, no doubt, create a new stat called "Choos" which would mean "taking bad routes to batted balls") no matter where we played him (he was a -12 defensive runs the last year he played a corner position).  He batted .251 away from Cincinnati last year (as opposed to .318 at home) and he can't hit lefties at all (.215 in 2013.)  However, if the team believes that Ortiz doesn't have too many years left before his expiration date, and we could use Choo at DH where he is destined to end up sooner or later) then it might be worth a gamble.  Beltran, with short years, might be the better play.  But if you think that Ellsbury was a bad bargain at what he ended up with, Choo is likely to be a much worse one.

 
He wouldn't drive us nuts in LF in Fenway.  Gomes and Carp didn't drive us nuts in LF.

 

[Pumpsie]

 
He wouldn't drive us nuts in LF in Fenway.  Gomes and Carp didn't drive us nuts in LF.

Gomes and Carp are better fielders than Choo.  And they don't cost anything close to what it's going to take to land Choo.  If Ellsbury was a bad bargain waiting to happen, Choo will be a worse one. Signing Choo to a long-term, expensive deal would be like Ben saying to the Yanks "I'll match your ill-advised, expensive contract and raise you."

 

[TomRicardo]

Gomes and Carp are better fielders than Choo.  And they don't cost anything close to what it's going to take to land Choo.  If Ellsbury was a bad bargain waiting to happen, Choo will be a worse one. Signing Choo to a long-term, expensive deal would be like Ben saying to the Yanks "I'll match your ill-advised, expensive contract and raise you."

 
Stop.  Just stop.  Choo is not worse than Mike Carp in the OF.  It is a non starter.  Continuing down that path is the road of the tin foil foaming mouth troll.
 
As for Choo is a contract death trap, Granderson is only getting three years from the Mets right now.  Lets see where the market takes us.  I wouldn't give Choo anything over 3 years but I would be thrilled to get him to a similar contract as Victorino.

 

[KillerBs]

Choo is not signing at anythign near 3/39. I would think the bidding starts at 5/100. This guy is an elite offensive player, 30 years old, lifetime OPS of 134.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Gomes and Carp are better fielders than Choo.  And they don't cost anything close to what it's going to take to land Choo.  If Ellsbury was a bad bargain waiting to happen, Choo will be a worse one. Signing Choo to a long-term, expensive deal would be like Ben saying to the Yanks "I'll match your ill-advised, expensive contract and raise you."

Among the dumbest things I've ever seen posted here. I mean granted Choo is overextended as a full-time CF but you really think Gomes and Carp would have done a better job in that position last year?
 
I'd love to see Choo in on a Victorino-like deal but that doesn't seem too likely given the amazing season he had last year. I expect him to get something like 5/85.

 

[seantoo]

 
He wouldn't drive us nuts in LF in Fenway.  Gomes and Carp didn't drive us nuts in LF.

I'll second that. Hell, he played CF last year, sure he was miscast there, but it was at CF. He'll be better than what we had in LF last year. Choo more than makes up Ells bat and JBJ offsets the D, we lose out on running the bases no matter what.

 

[NoLastCall125]

Here's a thought experiment. Shin-Soo Choo is a horrible defensive outfielder, but a tremendous hitter. Except he's only decent against lefties — he loses his power, but maintains a respectable .340 OBP. But we have a tiny left field and Jonny Gomes. 
 
I might be interested in pursuing a Choo-JBJ-Victorino outfield, with Gomes as the fourth OF. 

Against RHP: Against LHP:

Bradley CF Victorino RF
Choo LF Pedroia 2B
Pedroia 2B Ortiz DH
Ortiz DH Bogaerts SS
Bogaerts SS Carp 1B
Carp 1B Gomes LF
Middlebrooks 3B Ross C
AJP C Middlebrooks 3B
Victorino RF Bradley CF


Nava doesn't really have a spot, so I'm not sure the upgrade from Nava's .368 wOBA against RHP to Choo's .402 is really worth $100 million. Just kicking an idea around. 

 
While I'm not as adverse to signing Choo as others (especially since I love the OBP), I see a serious problem with signing a guy for $100 million and then platooning him. If the Sox sign Choo, I think they're going to have to sink or swim with him as an everyday player, even if it means dropping him to the lower half of the batting order against lefties. If they don't do that, then there's really no point in wasting that kind of money. 

 

[Pumpsie]

Choo is not signing at anythign near 3/39. I would think the bidding starts at 5/100. This guy is an elite offensive player, 30 years old, lifetime OPS of 134.

Exactly.  Just stay away from Choo.  It would be schizophrenic of Ben to not meet Ellsbury's payout and then sign Choo to something like this. 

 

[joe dokes]

I'll second that. Hell, he played CF last year, sure he was miscast there, but it was at CF. He'll be better than what we had in LF last year. Choo more than makes up Ells bat and JBJ offsets the D, we lose out on running the bases no matter what.

 
Hey, Nava "played" CF, too. (yes, that happened in the same season that the Red Sox won the World Series.)
 

wade boggs chicken dinnerhttp://sonsofsamhorn.net/user/1411-wade-boggs-chicken-dinner/
 
I also believe that things have changed dramatically in baseball's marketplace over the last few years and for some reason, the MFYs haven't been able to adjust.  The fact that teams are locking up young stars to multi-year contracts means that the top-tier players rarely come to the market, or if they do, they are on the back-end of their careers.  There is so much money sloshing around and so few players, that there simply is no value in free agency any more.
 

 
Joe Sheehan agrees:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42733/ellsbury-to-yankees-what-theyre-saying
 

But the conclusions are consistent with what we've observed: the best players in baseball used to hit free agency in their primes more frequently than they do today. ...
 
 

 

[Pumpsie]

I'll second that. Hell, he played CF last year, sure he was miscast there, but it was at CF. He'll be better than what we had in LF last year. Choo more than makes up Ells bat and JBJ offsets the D, we lose out on running the bases no matter what.

Choo is miscast anywhere in the field. He had a minus-15.8 UZR/150 as a right fielder for the Indians the season before last.  -12 in defensive runs saved above average in 2012 and -18 in defensive runs saved in 2013.  Both Gomes and Carp were at zero last year in the outfield.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Choo is miscast anywhere in the field. He had a minus-15.8 UZR/150 as a right fielder for the Indians the season before last.  -12 in defensive runs saved above average in 2012 and -18 in defensive runs saved in 2013.  Both Gomes and Carp were at zero last year in the outfield.

 
Is this where we yet again point out that UZR and defensive values in general must be heavily regressed and used over a several year sample size to have any real meaning?
 
Fangraphs, FWIW, generally has Gomes as a slight negative defensive player nearly every year of his career, save for 2011, where he was barely a positive, and 2010, were he was hugely negative.

 

[Pumpsie]

 
Is this where we yet again point out that UZR and defensive values in general must be heavily regressed and used over a several year sample size to have any real meaning?
 
Fangraphs, FWIW, generally has Gomes as a slight negative defensive player nearly every year of his career, save for 2011, where he was barely a positive, and 2010, were he was hugely negative.

Trends are also worth tracking here.  Gomes was spectacularly bad early in his career and has progressively gotten better so that he's practically at about league average now.  OTOH, Choo has gone in the reverse direction.  He began as an average fielder but in the past few years has fallen off a cliff. 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
Is this where we yet again point out that UZR and defensive values in general must be heavily regressed and used over a several year sample size to have any real meaning?
 
Fangraphs, FWIW, generally has Gomes as a slight negative defensive player nearly every year of his career, save for 2011, where he was barely a positive, and 2010, were he was hugely negative.

Plus, if you look at prior years he was +2.1 in 735 innings in RF in 2011. +6.3 in 1249 innings in RF in 2010. -2.7 in 1084 innings in RF in 2009. To quote MGL, 

 
 
"A player’s UZR does not necessarily tell you how he actually played just as it does not necessarily tell you what his true talent is." 

You also need to remember that the numbers reflect how UZR, or DRS, measure him against other players at that position that season. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Is this where we yet again point out that UZR and defensive values in general must be heavily regressed and used over a several year sample size to have any real meaning?

 
Although when a guy who has been a solid-average defender over a four-year period according to both UZR/150 (1.7) and DRS (2.25 average/year) comes back from a major injury with two consecutive years of seriously crappy numbers (-15.7 and -14.5 respectively), isn't it reasonable to suspect, as a working hypothesis, genuine decline resulting from the injury? SSS means you can't lean on those 2012-13 numbers very hard, obviously, but are you really going to argue that they are entirely meaningless and should be ignored?

 

[C4CRVT]

Trends are also worth tracking here.  Gomes was spectacularly bad early in his career and has progressively gotten batter so that he's practically at about league average now.  OTOH, Choo has gone in the reverse direction.  He began as an average fielder but in the past few years has fallen off a cliff. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3174&position=OF
 
Link to fangraphs player page- scroll down to advanced defensive metrics.
 
That does appear to be a bit of a downward trend. I do wonder if playing LF with half of his games in Fenway (and some platooning with Gomes), he'd be able to not do too much damage and even use his arm a bit to provide some defensive value.
 
OTOH, I'm driving the Hassan bandwagon and he's only one year away from being a "weak range/strong arm .290/.385/.480" LF of the future.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I also agree that Choo's value coming off a .400+ OBP season far exceeds Victorino's last year.  I'd be stunned if he doesn't easily double Vic's $$$.  He could triple it.

 
Boras' starting point for Choo, I would imagine, will be the Jayson Werth contract, which was 7/126.  Same age, very similar slash lines at the time of FA, and both arguably questionable in the field, although Werth was probably viewed as a better fielder at the time and has tarnished that reputation since.  Talk about Choo at a Victorino level is pretty out there.  After yesterday, I'm not going to bet against Boras getting him 7/126 or better, even with the Yankees out of the bidding.
 
Granderson at close to Vic levels makes sense to me -- I posted a few weeks ago that I thought 3/45 would be pretty good for Granderson.  Turns out, that's not likely to do it.  Looks like the Mets may have to go 4 years around 17 per.  We'll see.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Split these posts out of the Ellsbury threads.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Granderson at anything close to 4/$68 is a non-starter for the Sox.  He's not a significant enough upgrade over Nava, even assuming his power translates from the Toilet, to justify that cost and a lost pick.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Split these posts out of the Ellsbury threads.

 
Oh sure, right at the same time as I was researchng my Choo thread-starter.
 
I see being first is more important than being thorough around here! (kidding)

 

[nvalvo]

Granderson at anything close to 4/$68 is a non-starter for the Sox.  He's not a significant enough upgrade over Nava, even assuming his power translates from the Toilet, to justify that cost and a lost pick.

 
Exactly. Granderson is a poor bet to meaningfully improve on Nava. If he bounces back from his injury/poor performance, sure he could be better, but it is doubtful that the degree of that improvement and its likelihood will be worth the cost. 
 
Choo is a more credible offensive threat, so I'd be more inclined. If either Carp or Nava had the opposite handedness, a 4-part, 4-player LF/1B platoon would make some sense. Or if we didn't have, as a DH, one of the handful of players who's a better hitter than Choo. But for 100 million, considering Choo's limitations, I think I'd rather have Nava and the flexibility. In short, he's a hell of a hitter, but a bad fit for the roster. 
 
If they want to sign him with an eye to replacing Papi a year or two down the road, that's another conversation. I would think we'd want more power?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
If they want to sign him with an eye to replacing Papi a year or two down the road, that's another conversation. I would think we'd want more power?

 
I think what matters for a DH is just overall offensive ability, i.e., wOBA. Doesn't matter that much how that wOBA parses out. I would rather have Wade Boggs for a DH than Mark Reynolds, even though I'll certainly get more power out of Reynolds.
 
Obviously you do want some power in your lineup, but it doesn't necessarily have to come from the DH slot. If the Sox are getting, for instance, 50-60 HR a year from the left side of their infield--as they easily could be by 2016 with a WMB/Bogaerts tandem--then 10 HR/30 doubles and a great OBP from the DH fits into the mix very well.
 
Warts and all, Choo is an obvious upgrade over Nava, and I'd love to make that upgrade. I just think the price will be way too high, especially factoring in the lost pick. Therefore I hope we don't get him, except maybe late in the offseason when his market has settled quite a bit, a la Michael Bourn (which seems like a not-impossible scenario).

 

[TomRicardo]

Choo is not signing at anythign near 3/39. I would think the bidding starts at 5/100. This guy is an elite offensive player, 30 years old, lifetime OPS of 134.

 
Eh, that was the best bid for Ellsbury outside of what the Yankees paid him and I don't think anyone is paying Choo near what they would pay Ellsbury.  He simply isn't that good on the field.
 
Probably will get 52/4 from someone though

 

[nvalvo]

 
Eh, that was the best bid for Ellsbury outside of what the Yankees paid him and I don't think anyone is paying Choo near what they would pay Ellsbury.  He simply isn't that good on the field.
 
Probably will get 52/4 from someone though

 
I haven't seen that, about the second highest bid. Do you have a link?
 
My suspicion is that you're low on Choo's market. 

 

[plusbrians]

 
I haven't seen that, about the second highest bid. Do you have a link?
 
 

 

 
 
 
Maybe not 2nd, though it's likely... I believe Ellsbury listened to Ben, then just jumped on the NYY offer...
 
but re: Sox offer:
 
Rob Bradford‏@bradfo 3h

Can confirm RT @KenDavidoff I hear the #RedSox's talks with Jacoby Ellsbury didn't get beyond the $80 million (over 5 years) range

 

[swingin val]

 
Eh, that was the best bid for Ellsbury outside of what the Yankees paid him and I don't think anyone is paying Choo near what they would pay Ellsbury.  He simply isn't that good on the field.
 
Probably will get 52/4 from someone though

If Choo can be had for 13 million a year, for just 4 years, the Sox (or anyone for that matter) should jump all over that. He could be the worst defensive left fielder in the league, and he would still be worth 13 million.

 

[soxhop411]

“@pgammo: Choo negotiations "could move quickly," per Scott Boras. Rumor:Boston in. we shall see”

 

[jimbobim]

Industry consensus was ellsbury was just slightly better then choo. A jayson werth type contract was what he was seeking. He's probably a better bet then money and prospects for Kemp at 90 million. If granderson and cruz are angling for 65 you could probably get him in the 95 96 range.
 
Reminds me of the hope after signing JD Drew big OBP guy but  they need a bat and an above average outfielder to replace ellsbury production for the next couple of years till you hope JBJ and X can play to where they can start to handle more of the offensive production. 
 
I'd probably go 5 years 90 with option that could kick it to 105 million. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Maybe not 2nd, though it's likely... I believe Ellsbury listened to Ben, then just jumped on the NYY offer...
 
but re: Sox offer:
 
Rob Bradford‏@bradfo 3h

Can confirm RT @KenDavidoff I hear the #RedSox's talks with Jacoby Ellsbury didn't get beyond the $80 million (over 5 years) range

MLBTR had a link to a Joel Sherman story guy that implied Seattle had offered 9 years .. No mention of dollars though ..

The Yankees came to believe the Mariners were offering eight years to Ellsbury with a willingness to go to a ninth. There had been a feeling that Ellsbury would follow that money because he is from Oregon. But he appeared the latest hitter who wanted nothing to do with that huge ballpark and dubious franchise. The Yankees wouldn’t go eight or nine years, but when they indicated to Boras they would exceed Carl Crawford’s deal – seven years at $142 million – the talks gained traction on Saturday and Sunday. This was the goal, to outdo Crawford.

http://nypost.com/2013/12/04/how-jacoby-ellsbury-became-a-yankee/

 

[moondog80]

And now that the Yanks have a huge hole in their lineup and Broas is Choo's agent, the price just went way up. 

 

[EP Sox Fan]

This may have been addressed elsewhere in the thread, but my impression is that Choo's defensive ineptitude was exaggerated by the Reds' insistence on playing him out of position in CF. In CF, his UZR and UZR/150 was an atrocious -16.9 and -17.  In LF, he has a career UZR and UZR/150 of 5.7 and 13.7.  Link.   He's actually a pretty decedent defensive outfielder when not playing CF. IMO, plugging him in at the top of the order and sliding Bradley down at the bottom takes a lot of pressure of JBJ. Makes a lot of sense if the price is right.

 

[bd11]

And now that the Yanks have a huge hole in their lineup and Broas is Choo's agent, the price just went way up. 

Choo is an of and the mfys have Ellsbury, Ichiro, Gardiner and Soriano among others.  Sori could dh, but they need that spot for Captain Intangibles.

 

[jimbobim]

Do you grossly overpay Choo for 5 or 6 years or go four for Napoli ? Take a harder look at Kemp? dilemma . would love to be a fly on the wall in that front office today. 

 

[Drek717]

Do you grossly overpay Choo for 5 or 6 years or go four for Napoli ? Take a harder look at Kemp? dilemma . would love to be a fly on the wall in that front office today. 

None of the above.
 
Nava/Gomes is a good LF tandem.  Nava's season was a big step up for him, but built on the same steady year on year decline in K rate he showed in three stints at AAA.  To me that looks like a legit learning curve.  His walk rate also was a bit down per his career norms, including his ML samples, so he's likely to bounce back there.  He's also a career big BABIP guy so I don't think you can dismiss his .352 BABIP outright as something due for massive regression.  In 2012 he had a .329 BABIP v. RHP and in 2010 it was .337.  He can't hit lefties, but he legitimately drives the ball v. RHP.
 
His defense is likely unfairly prosecuted by the metrics like any Fenway LFer's metrics are.  DRS had him at -1 runs in LF last year, +3 in 2012, and -1 in 2010.  They also had him as -1 in RF for 2013.  This is a big departure from his UZR numbers.  He's incapable of CF and not a good RF given Fenway's dimensions, but he's an acceptable LF.
 
Is he as good as Choo?  No, but he's a good player all the same and if he's moved into a pure platoon with Gomes his overall stat line would look a whole lot nicer.  The value he represents is a huge luxury for a big money team to have, freeing up millions for other needs.  
 
Getting Choo to play LF is paying full market rate to upgrade a problem that doesn't exist, and Choo as the RF is problematic in that he can't hit LHP.  Maybe something like Victorino and JBJ splitting CF 70/30 against RHP with JBJ playing all starts in CF against a LHP while Victorino moves back to RF and bumps Choo out could work, but again, seems like making solutions for problems that don't exist.

 

[jimbobim]

I don't mind the outfield platoon. Nava is valuable can also play a little first base. They conceivably could not make another move open the season sign lester and then address any regression through the trade market. 
 
I think they want to improve on Nava because they know babip is such a fickle and cruel stat. Look at the Salty non love . I think it played a significant role in their reticence to go beyond a second year. (along with other obvious factors) 
 
The market is yielding very lucrative contracts (Grandy at 4 and 15). Napoli probably wants the 4th year and he may have it from Miami. Probably trying to get one more year from the Sox to match a three year Texas offer. I go 3 for 15 per a year but 4 is a redline. 
 
Choo and Kemp aren't attractive with their risky long contracts and various flaws. Tanaka is probably the best value but the Yankees will probably go nuts on him and long term a big bat is what this team needs. 

 

[moondog80]

Choo is an of and the mfys have Ellsbury, Ichiro, Gardiner and Soriano among others.  Sori could dh, but they need that spot for Captain Intangibles.

 
 
Pay 5 mil of Ichiro's salary and send him elsewhere.  Sign Drew, Jeter plays 3B, Sori DH and spells Choo against tough lefites.  Problem solved.  

 

[Pumpsie]

Granderson to the Mets for 4/60m.  Better them than us. 

 

[Pumpsie]

This may have been addressed elsewhere in the thread, but my impression is that Choo's defensive ineptitude was exaggerated by the Reds' insistence on playing him out of position in CF. In CF, his UZR and UZR/150 was an atrocious -16.9 and -17.  In LF, he has a career UZR and UZR/150 of 5.7 and 13.7.  Link.   He's actually a pretty decedent defensive outfielder when not playing CF. IMO, plugging him in at the top of the order and sliding Bradley down at the bottom takes a lot of pressure of JBJ. Makes a lot of sense if the price is right.

Choo was just as bad in RF for the Indians in 2012.  The thing with Choo is that after a career of being an average outfielder with a good arm, over the past two years he's become a bad outfielder with a good arm.  It's weird.  He still has some speed but he's getting very bad jumps on balls and doesn't seem to know where the ball is going.  Maybe he needs his eyes examined, or something. I, inadvertently, caught a few Reds games on TV this year and I was shocked to see the routes taken by Choo, even on balls he caught.  Made me appreciate Ellsbury and Victorino.    Plus, Choo, despite some stolen bases, is not a particularly good baserunner either.  He grades out as average on the bases. Personally, I'd be leery of offering a big contract to someone who is already 31, can't hit lefties at all, and is showing signs of being a minus defender for the rest of his career.  I think Ellsbury is a safer bet not to decline rapidly over the next 4-5 years.

 

[Youks Baltic Roots]

By no stretch am I saying the Red Sox will get Choo - or even try for him - but with the Napoli signing and the Yanks grabbing Beltran, you have to think Choo's market price just fell quite a bit.

Boras has to hate it when he has a free agent to peddle and the Red Sox and Yankees aren't there to be used as the big market elephants in the room.