Is Bradley winning the starting CF gig?

URI

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ToeKneeArmAss said:
Is it too old-fashioned for me to think that just maybe going with 11 pitchers for a while might be a better experiment?  That would give time to see if Sizemore and Victorino can both stay healthy, and if Bradley's offense is for real.  How much load does that 12th pitcher have to carry anyway?
I don't think so. I said it last page.
 

benhogan

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Going to Yankee Stadium for 4 games, short porch in RF.  
 
Does it make sense, when facing a RHP, to use Sizemore in LF, Bradley Jr. in CF and Nava in RF for this series?
 

URI

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No I was thinking about Dewey. I thought he still had rookie status in 74, which I was mistaken.
 

threecy

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For what it's worth, only two rookies received AL ROY votes in 1975.  Lynn and Rice.  A repeat of that would be quite exciting!
 

3_games_down

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ToeKneeArmAss said:
Is it too old-fashioned for me to think that just maybe going with 11 pitchers for a while might be a better experiment?  That would give time to see if Sizemore and Victorino can both stay healthy, and if Bradley's offense is for real.  How much load does that 12th pitcher have to carry anyway?
 
It's hard to argue for 11 pitchers when two of our starters are taxing the bullpen.  If Victorino is healthy,  JBJ in CF, and Sizemore in LF.  I believe that playing left would be better for Sizemore's longevity.  Jackie Bradley Jr. has played his way into the lineup.  
 

TomRicardo

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JBJ is best defensive CF we have seen in a long time.  He looks like Mike Cameron in his prime.  He has great instincts and an extremely quick first step.. 
 

bakahump

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I agree with the poster who said
 
Send JBJ back down and keep the Shuttle warmed up
 
Between Vic and Sizemore your looking at needing quite possibly 200-250 at bats (@9 weeks throughout the season) of Long term injury insurance.
 
Inbetween those injuries you have Nava who has shown capable of getting n base at a very good rate and Carp who provides a little late inning pop and 1b and Dh Insurance....which we might ALSO need sometime this season.
 
Seems silly to throw away our insurance when JBJ will get plenty of Dev time in Boston when injuries strike and Pawtucket when we are at full strength.  Break him in slow.
 
Next year with Sizemore moving on....JBJ gets the job and hopefully after 200 PAs in the Majors and a good year with the Pawsox we and the FO has more confidence in handing him that job.
 

SouthernBoSox

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You know. This team lost alot of juice when Ellsbury left. You look at that lineup now and no one can really make something happen outside the batters box. I know we live in an age where steals aren't sexy, but extra bases earned outside of hitting are a very real and important aspect of post steroid era baseball.

JBJ can't replace all the steals. But he can replace probably 60% and the speed on the bases outside of steals.

At the end of the day he has a skillset that neither Sizemore, Nava, Gomes, or Carp have. And it's something this team needs.

I think the best lineup is...

JBJ
Victorino
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
Nava/Gomes/Sizemore
Xander
AJP
WMB

That's the deepest lineup we have. Really the question is rather you believe in Nava enough to let Sizemore or Carp go.... I don't think it's worth downgrading the lineup by sending JBJ down.

The FO track record indicates they'll send Jackie down, but they'll be downgrading the roster by doin so.
 

MakMan44

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Wait, Sizemore can't help replace steals? 
 
He was a decent basestealer before all his knee problems. Lumping him with Nava and co is pretty funny considering JBJ has exactly one season with double digital steals and it wasn't exactly an efficient one either. 
 
I'm not suggesting Sizemore is going to nor should be stealing tons of bags right now but it's not much of a stretch to imagine him ending up with either more steals or better rate than JBJ if he stays healthy the whole year. 
 

SouthernBoSox

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MakMan44 said:
Wait, Sizemore can't help replace steals? 
 
He was a decent basestealer before all his knee problems. Lumping him with Nava and co is pretty funny considering JBJ has exactly one season with double digital steals and it wasn't exactly an efficient one either. 
 
I'm not suggesting Sizemore is going to nor should be stealing tons of bags right now but it's not much of a stretch to imagine him ending up with either more steals or better rate than JBJ if he stays healthy the whole year.
Sure he can.

But he can't play CF. We have to have CF on this team.

Edit: JBJ had 24 steals in 128 games in 2012. Not many last year at the AAA level.
 

MakMan44

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SouthernBoSox said:
Sure he can.

But he can't play CF. We have to have CF on this team.

Edit: JBJ had 24 steals in 128 games in 2012. Not many last year at the AAA level.
At about a 70% success rate. Not great. 
 
I like the idea of a Sizemore/Gomes platoon in LF TBH. Depends on health of course but I hope Nava is the one who gets the phantom injury when Vic comes back. 
 

JimD

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People expecting Bradley to replicate Ellsbury's running game are going to be disappointed.  He'll be fine if he hones his baseball IQ and picks his spots to run and take the extra base, but piling up steals is never going to be part of his game. 
 

Dick Pole Upside

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Rudy Pemberton said:
 
Bradley has stolen 31 bases in the minors in 218 G's, at a terrible 63% success rate. I wouldn't expect to see him running much. 
 
JBJ is not fast by ML standards. He may appear fast/quick due to his fielding instincts, but let's not throw base-stealing expectations on him.  His success rate in the minors, combined with his average foot speed does not portend "impact" success at this level.
 

Doctor G

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benhogan said:
Going to Yankee Stadium for 4 games, short porch in RF.  
 
Does it make sense, when facing a RHP, to use Sizemore in LF, Bradley Jr. in CF and Nava in RF for this series?
Jackie has experience in left there Sizemore doesn't. I think they'll stay with Grady in center. 
 

smastroyin

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It is impossible to replace what Ellsbury brought to the table in 2013 with the Red Sox current personnel, and in fact with the personnel of most major league teams.  Ellsbury being so successful on the bases while being on them enough to matter is a rare combination.  If the stolen bases by themselves were so important you go and pick up a Rajai Davis or a Jarrod Dyson.  So in general I think Ellsbury's value last year goes underappreciated.  
 
Luckily for the Red Sox, there are other ways for players to achieve that value.  JBJ may not create havoc on the bases, but he should hit for a bit more power and his defensive game is better at similar points in their careers.  He still won't be as good as 2013 Ellsbury in 2014 unless he has some kind of giant step forward, of course.  So also luckily for the Red Sox, they don't need him to be, they have other positions around the diamond where they can make up those gaps.
 
All of that said, to the question at hand, it's still April.  If everyone is healthy I think JBJ and his options remain the odd man out.  Not that wins count more later, but the information you have increases with the passage of time.  I'm not sure it is worth cutting guys right now just to preserve JBJ's place on the team.  Although to be honest I would ride his hot streak into letting Victorino get a nice long rehab and strong medical report.
 

pokey_reese

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I think that given the pace of Victorino's return from this injury, along with his short spring training, means that it's going to be a long while before they have to make this decision regardless.  JBJ is going to get a good long look, as will Sizemore.
 

dbn

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SouthernBoSox said:
You know. This team lost alot of juice when Ellsbury left. You look at that lineup now and no one can really make something happen outside the batters box. I know we live in an age where steals aren't sexy, but extra bases earned outside of hitting are a very real and important aspect of post steroid era baseball.

JBJ can't replace all the steals. But he can replace probably 60% and the speed on the bases outside of steals.

At the end of the day he has a skillset that neither Sizemore, Nava, Gomes, or Carp have. And it's something this team needs.

I think the best lineup is...

JBJ
Victorino
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
Nava/Gomes/Sizemore
Xander
AJP
WMB

That's the deepest lineup we have. Really the question is rather you believe in Nava enough to let Sizemore or Carp go.... I don't think it's worth downgrading the lineup by sending JBJ down.

The FO track record indicates they'll send Jackie down, but they'll be downgrading the roster by doin so.
 
That might eventually be the best lineup/order, but for now I like Bradley batting 9th. He seems relaxed and natural at the plate in that spot. Let him establish his confidence and place on the team before asking him to start setting the table for the megastars Pedroia and Ortiz.
 
JimD said:
He'll be fine if he hones his baseball IQ and picks his spots to run and take the extra base, but piling up steals is never going to be part of his game. 
 
Agreed. As a reminder, the Sox as a team seemed to be preaching smart "take the extra base" skills with all their players prior to the 2013 season. This Feb 2013 article about Brian Butterfield was a great read (and thread starter during last year's preseason). With or without Ellsbury (and as Smas and others have said), they can still do this without a guy stealing 50 bases this year. As that article quotes, "it's not just about stealing bases."
 
SouthernBoSox said:
Who on the current roster is more dynamic outside of the batters box than JBJ?
 
I know words like "dynamic" and "electric" are sexy sextangibles but I don't care if there's no steals of home or web gem flourishes for highlight reels if the fundamentals are there with the rest of the team and if the entire roster continues to commit and press every advantage to create runs, like they did last year. Non JBJ players are the difference-makers, ultimately, if the team is going to succeed.
 

teddywingman

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It was interesting that in yesterday's 9th inning--after AJP pinch hit for Gomes (which was weird)--Sizemore comes in to replace Gomes in the outfield. But instead of playing LF and leaving the rest of the OF alone--Grady plays center, Nava switches to left, and JBJ goes over to right.
 

BCsMightyJoeYoung

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teddywingman said:
It was interesting that in yesterday's 9th inning--after AJP pinch hit for Gomes (which was weird)--Sizemore comes in to replace Gomes in the outfield. But instead of playing LF and leaving the rest of the OF alone--Grady plays center, Nava switches to left, and JBJ goes over to right.
 
 
As JF has admitted that JBJ is the better CF one can only assume that this has to do with Sizemore's lack of familiarity with a LF or RF - which is understandable as he has been a CF his entire career. They are obviously trying to keep Grady as comfortable as possible until he really gets his feet wet.
 

teddywingman

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But this just in: Sizemore in left tonight. JBJ CF. Nava in right.

edit to say: I think you were spot on BC'sMJY. But tonight the Bradley CF era begins in earnest.
 

Cumberland Blues

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I think the dimensions of Fenway and Yankee Stadium are also at play here...you want Nava covering the least amount of ground if he's on the field w/ JBJ & Sizemore.
 

SumnerH

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SouthernBoSox said:
You know. This team lost alot of juice when Ellsbury left. You look at that lineup now and no one can really make something happen outside the batters box. I know we live in an age where steals aren't sexy, but extra bases earned outside of hitting are a very real and important aspect of post steroid era baseball.
Pedroia and Victorino are both more than capable of putting up 20+ steals, as is Sizemore if he's anywhere near where he was pre-injury.
 

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Cumberland Blues said:
I think the dimensions of Fenway and Yankee Stadium are also at play here...you want Nava covering the least amount of ground if he's on the field w/ JBJ & Sizemore.
Yes. I also think that arm strength is part of why JBJ gets RF in Fenway.
 

NoXInNixon

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KillerBs said:
Here's a nice little run down on the AL rookie class, claiming Tanaka and Abreu as clear front runners.
I'd put money on neither one of them winning. Even though according to the definition, they are rookies and therefore eligible to win ROY, there is a significant segment of voters who simply refuse to consider them for that award. In order to win, they're not only going to have to be just better than all the other rookies, they're going to have to be a lot better.
 

Puffy

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bakahump said:
I agree with the poster who said
 
Send JBJ back down and keep the Shuttle warmed up
 
Between Vic and Sizemore your looking at needing quite possibly 200-250 at bats (@9 weeks throughout the season) of Long term injury insurance.
 
Inbetween those injuries you have Nava who has shown capable of getting n base at a very good rate and Carp who provides a little late inning pop and 1b and Dh Insurance....which we might ALSO need sometime this season.
 
Seems silly to throw away our insurance when JBJ will get plenty of Dev time in Boston when injuries strike and Pawtucket when we are at full strength.  Break him in slow.
 
Next year with Sizemore moving on....JBJ gets the job and hopefully after 200 PAs in the Majors and a good year with the Pawsox we and the FO has more confidence in handing him that job.
 
If they are satisfied enough with Nava/Sizemore/Victorino (when he returns) plus Gomes and Carp, there could be additional service time advantages to the Red Sox if JBJ spends a couple of months in Pawtucket. I doubt this would be the deciding factor, but gaining an additional year of control would have some value, provided the ML outfielders are holding down the fort acceptably.
 

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Doctor G said:
Jackie has experience in left there Sizemore doesn't. I think they'll stay with Grady in center. 
JBJ in CF tonight w/ Sizemore in LF and Nava in RF.
 
Thats the smart move.
 
JBJ is earning his starting role, which is the best thing for a young player.
 
The Sox will have to get creative with the roster once Vic is back, as long as Ortiz, Napoli, JBJ, Sizemore, Carp, Gomes, and Nava are all healthy.
 
IF all those guys are healthy then I think its a decision between Carp and Nava on who goes to the DL or gets dealt (which I DON'T want).  
 
I have to say RAS was right earlier this year on Sizemore.  Grady stays since he can back up CF and we can keep Vic's glove in RF.
 

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NoXInNixon said:
I'd put money on neither one of them winning. Even though according to the definition, they are rookies and therefore eligible to win ROY, there is a significant segment of voters who simply refuse to consider them for that award. In order to win, they're not only going to have to be just better than all the other rookies, they're going to have to be a lot better.
 
Five of the past ten ROY award winners had major league experience before their official rookie year.
 

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threecy said:
Getting way ahead of myself here, but it would be pretty neat to see JBJ and Xander in a head to head ROY race this season.
Most definitely. However, it will probably be Xander, Springer, Buxton (if he's healthy he'll be called up by July) then JBJ in that order. Houston has some serious talent coming through the farm soon.
 

NoXInNixon

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kieckeredinthehead said:
 
Five of the past ten ROY award winners had major league experience before their official rookie year.
I'm talking about players like Tanaka and Abreu who have extensive professional experience in other countries before joining MLB. They are rookies to MLB, but not "rookies" in the conventional sense. There are voters who don't want to vote for such players, unless in a case like Ichiro where they have no real choice in the matter because the player is so good.
 

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I know words like "dynamic" and "electric" are sexy sextangibles but I don't care if there's no steals of home or web gem flourishes for highlight reels if the fundamentals are there with the rest of the team and if the entire roster continues to commit and press every advantage to create runs, like they did last year. Non JBJ players are the difference-makers, ultimately, if the team is going to succeed.
 
JBJ is much more likely to increase his offensive value to the team relative to Ellsbury via his OBP rather than by steals. Going forward and overall I would much rather have JBJ than Ellsbury when both sides of the ball (and age & money) is accounted for.
 

ItOnceWasMyLife

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URI said:
I wouldn't. You aren't as good at it as me, and you think it's more worrisome (according to your list) to have a Victorino covered rather than Sizemore, since Sizemore will probably play center all things equal, and Victorino won't.
Let's see which one ends up with more time on the DL at the end of the season.
 
And that's not meant as a dig on Vic, who's still no-holds-barred crash-into-anything and get hit-by-pitch every other at bat awesome.  It's more a dig on Grady who looks like his scared of his own shadow out there and ain't diving for shit.
 

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
Let's see which one ends up with more time on the DL at the end of the season.

And that's not meant as a dig on Vic, who's still no-holds-barred crash-into-anything and get hit-by-pitch every other at bat awesome. It's more a dig on Grady who looks like his scared of his own shadow out there and ain't diving for shit.
Your browser does not support iframes.
 

theapportioner

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I've seen Grady dive for balls/crash into walls on several occasions (unsuccessfully). Seems more his issue is getting a slow read on some balls and not having the speed anymore.
 

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Exactly. As spectacular as those catches and attempts are, they are more a function of Sizemore's lousy reads and poor closing speed than of some super defensive dirt-doggyness.  JBJ glides under those balls and catches them at a trot.
 

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NoXInNixon said:
I'm talking about players like Tanaka and Abreu who have extensive professional experience in other countries before joining MLB. They are rookies to MLB, but not "rookies" in the conventional sense. There are voters who don't want to vote for such players, unless in a case like Ichiro where they have no real choice in the matter because the player is so good.
 
Or Kazuhiro Sasaki. Who? you ask.
 
Exactly.
 

Reverend

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Quintanariffic said:
Exactly. As spectacular as those catches and attempts are, they are more a function of Sizemore's lousy reads and poor closing speed than of some super defensive dirt-doggyness.  JBJ glides under those balls and catches them at a trot.
 
Which, while perhaps accurate, has no bearing on the injury discussion which was the context.
 

URI

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
Let's see which one ends up with more time on the DL at the end of the season.
 
And that's not meant as a dig on Vic, who's still no-holds-barred crash-into-anything and get hit-by-pitch every other at bat awesome.  It's more a dig on Grady who looks like his scared of his own shadow out there and ain't diving for shit.
 
JD Drew never dove...
 
Your face is going to be so red when Sizemore finally dives and actually explodes in the outfield.
 

threecy

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Quintanariffic said:
Exactly. As spectacular as those catches and attempts are, they are more a function of Sizemore's lousy reads and poor closing speed than of some super defensive dirt-doggyness.
Are you suggesting Sizemore is the Derek Jeter of the outfield? :)