Is Adrian Beltre a HoFer?

[MakMan44]

So with the Rangers in town and SBS talking about how he misses Beltre, I thought this was as good a time as any to make a case that Beltre deserves to be in the HoF already. 
 
In terms of positions, excluding DH, I was actually pretty surprised to find out that 3rd base has the least amount of HoFers. Well, it's actually tied with catcher (16 each).
 
To start, here's Beltre's current stats: 376 HRs (would be 3rd most in HoF) 1183 Rs (tied for 5th) 1309 RBIs (6th) to go along with a lifetime .282/.334/.478 slash line. He's racked up 65 WAR and has a career 113 wRC+ while being one of the best defensive 3rd baseman in the MLB up until last year when UZR had at -1.2 and DRS had him a -5. 
 
I think that in terms of an over arching career, Beltre should already be a Hall of Famer. The problem is that he's reaching his peak in his mid 30's, and it's becoming a question of how long he can sustain it. Outside of 2004, the majority of his value was tied into his defense, which may not be enough for the voters. He's also never been an MVP and has only been an All Star 3 times (did he really not get selected in 2004?). 
 
There's a lot to discuss and I think he's got a case already but I don't have a vote. So with Beltre's career starting to wind down, what says you? Beltre, HoFer or not?
 
EDIT: Stats compiled from Fangraphs, BB Almanac and BBR. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

Why would you say he's just reaching his peak now, as opposed to when he was 31? 

 

[Saints Rest]

I'm a big fan of the idea that a HOFer is that person who regularly ranks (either quantitatively or qualitatively) at or near the top of his league for an extended time.  It can be that guy who was the best or nearly the best for a short period (the Terrell Davis's, Gale Sayers's, Jim Rice's of the world) or the guys who were among the top 15-20 for a longer period.
 
I'm not sure I ever see Beltre in either category.

I don't think position factors in that heavily unless you are a defensive wizard par excellence (Ozzie, Brooks).  I fear that Beltre's defensive rep was buried too long in the Pacific Northwest to get enough consideration.  If he had played his whole career for NY, StL, Boston, etc, he'd probably be a lot closer.

 

[MakMan44]

Why would you say he's just reaching his peak now, as opposed to when he was 31? 

Poor phrasing, changed it.

 

[TheYaz67]

I'm a big fan of the idea that a HOFer is that person who regularly ranks (either quantitatively or qualitatively) at or near the top of his league for an extended time.  It can be that guy who was the best or nearly the best for a short period (the Terrell Davis's, Gale Sayers's, Jim Rice's of the world) or the guys who were among the top 15-20 for a longer period.
 
I'm not sure I ever see Beltre in either category.
I don't think position factors in that heavily unless you are a defensive wizard par excellence (Ozzie, Brooks).  I fear that Beltre's defensive rep was buried too long in the Pacific Northwest to get enough consideration.  If he had played his whole career for NY, StL, Boston, etc, he'd probably be a lot closer.

 
Yeah, this is where I am.  Fair or not, I also think the only 3 All Star appearances really hurts him with the writers.  Each All Star team usually takes 2 to 4 third basemen every year looking back at the last 15 games briefly, so this means in the AS Game voters eyes Beltre was not perceived as one of the best 4-8 third basemen in the league any given year.   Did it suck that he was stuck behind higher profile guys at the position in the AL like A-Rod and then Longoria - sure.  But plenty of "lesser lights" at the position made it on the AS team at 3rd year in a year out (aka Brandon Inge and Chone Figgins in 2009) in addition to those two, but not often Beltre. 
 
I mean, can you think of any recently elected HOF'ers / guys we expect to get in easily soon who only made 3 All Star games?  I'm not saying I agree with or endorse this metric for selecting HOFers, just pointing out the AS selection thing is one of the issues that will handicap his chances I think...

 

[glennhoffmania]

I think that's a reasonable point but I was looking at it more like should he be in the HoF, not whether he'll get elected.  Given the idiocy of many of the voters those are often two very different questions.  I thought that Mak's initial post was making the case that he should be considered, and I think he's right. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Beltre seems like a guy who should make it but has some strong traditionalist headwinds running against him.  But if he can sustain a few more years of good production, I can see him becoming a stathead "cause celebre" a la Blyleven, enough to eventually overcome opposition from traditional writers worried about MVPs and All Star appearances.  He has a legitimate shot at ending his career with ~90 bWAR, which would be Top 30 all time among position players.  He will almost certainly end his career with a higher bWAR than Derek Jeter, Frank Thomas, Paul Molitor, and Ozzie Smith, to name a few more recently retired Hall of Famers.  The fact that he's putting up some of his best numbers in the supposed "post-PED era" also may help him quite a bit.  If he gets to 85-90 bWAR the only guys above him on that list who aren't Hall of Famers are the PED cases.

 

[DJnVa]

He's a tough call---was there ever a time you looked at him and said he was the best 3B in the game?.
 
If he plays a few more seasons he's likely going to end up near 450 HRs and maybe 1500-1600 RBI. That puts him in the top 40 or so in HRs and top 50 or so in RBI. He's also currently 34th in defensive WAR. Heck, if he plays 5 more and can knock out 100 more HRs, he'll be pushing 500 dingers.
 
Some other shaky numbers and comparisons--he's below the standards of the average HOFer on the Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Fame Standards rankings--although he'll probably get tehre with a few more seasons. He has some interesting names on his BBR comparison lists--by age, Ron Santo is all over that list. At his current age, you see guys like Ripken and Yaz, Kaline and Rice.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

He will probably finish with what you'd call classic Hall of Very Good offensive numbers (although if he plays three more years with very little decline, or four more years with only modest decline, he's got a shot at 3000 hits, which would make the old farts sit up and take notice). I think his case is going to depend on the voters giving him full credit for two things: defense and road performance. He is the best defensive third baseman of his generation, a pretty solid top-10 all time, and in the argument for top 5. And he was clearly hurt by playing in awful hitters' parks in his prime. If you doubled his road numbers, he'd start to look like a much less borderline HoF candidate.

 

[brs3]

n/m already mentioned

 

[Jaylach]

He's a tough call---was there ever a time you looked at him and said he was the best 3B in the game?.

I look at Beltre and think he's one of the best in the game, yes. He's not an Ortiz-like threat with the bat, but he's scary. He doesn't have an Ozzie glove, but is still darn good on defense.

He's had to play in a time where ARod was high profile, Longoria is breaking onto the scene, etc. He also played in some very crappy markets.

I feel like Beltre constantly gets snubbed for the All Star game because people just expect his production. He looses out to higher profile players and players who happen to be having a career year. Beltre, though, just continues to quietly do what Beltre does. He produces, year in and year out, both with the bat and glove.

As I said, I think he gets unfairly looked over for not having ARods fame, Muchado's age, or Longoria's "noble looser"ness.

 

[Bosoxen]

He also played in some very crappy markets.

 
Slight nitpick: he played in a crappy market. He's played in LA, Seattle, Boston and Texas. One might have made a case that Texas was a crappy market ten years ago but that case wouldn't be so good now.
 
Granted, he spent a good chunk of the best years of his career in the aforementioned crappy market. But outside of those five seasons in Seattle, he hasn't exactly been playing in Siberia.

 

[AbbyNoho]

Is Seattle even a crappy market? I think of it as more mid-tier. They're the 12th most valuable MLB franchise. 

 

[Jaylach]

 
Slight nitpick: he played in a crappy market. He's played in LA, Seattle, Boston and Texas. One might have made a case that Texas was a crappy market ten years ago but that case wouldn't be so good now.
 
Granted, he spent a good chunk of the best years of his career in the aforementioned crappy market. But outside of those five seasons in Seattle, he hasn't exactly been playing in Siberia.

 
Great point. I was considering Texas one of those "crappy markets" but, as you said, that's probably not the case anymore.
 
 

Is Seattle even a crappy market? I think of it as more mid-tier. They're the 12th most valuable MLB franchise. 

 
I think in terms of national coverage, it's probably a "crappy market". Seattle just didn't get as much national coverage as, say, the Red Sox or the Dodgers. So while the market may be pretty big locally, my experience has been it's not very big nationally...

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Bradford just opining about Beltre's HoF career numbers on the WEEI broadcast. Another 3 or 4 good years would make a very strong case. He'd then be close to the most games played at 3B, right around with Brooks Robinson. That might initiate a conversation..

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Yes.
 
3 Cycles in his career?  Doesn't mean anything.  But continued power and good fielding for this many years?  No doubt.
 
http://m.rangers.mlb.com/news/2015/08/04/141021634/richard-justice-adrian-beltre-a-hall-of-famer

 

[hbk72777]

 
Yeah, this is where I am.  Fair or not, I also think the only 3 All Star appearances really hurts him with the writers.  Each All Star team usually takes 2 to 4 third basemen every year looking back at the last 15 games briefly, so this means in the AS Game voters eyes Beltre was not perceived as one of the best 4-8 third basemen in the league any given year.   Did it suck that he was stuck behind higher profile guys at the position in the AL like A-Rod and then Longoria - sure.  But plenty of "lesser lights" at the position made it on the AS team at 3rd year in a year out (aka Brandon Inge and Chone Figgins in 2009) in addition to those two, but not often Beltre. 
 
I mean, can you think of any recently elected HOF'ers / guys we expect to get in easily soon who only made 3 All Star games?  I'm not saying I agree with or endorse this metric for selecting HOFers, just pointing out the AS selection thing is one of the issues that will handicap his chances I think...

 
 
Robin Yount. Bert Blyleven

 

[Ale Xander]

Beltre has been very Biggio-esque in that he is widespread like-able and "plays the game the right away." If he puts 8 great months in and gets to 2850/2900 by next year's end he should be in.   
 
He's also the player responsible for changing my viewpoint on length of term for contracts Still puzzled why he only received a one year contract (player option).
 
He's high on the list for Red Sox players who was taken for granted while he was there.  He's been successful in 4 different home parks, and he.s 3rd in WAR among active non-pitchers (Arod, Pujols)

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Just passed Julio Franco for most games played by a Dominican player

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

*bump*

6 years in a row as a top-15 MVP candidate, 4 of them an all-star and the other 2 years finishing 7th in the MVP. Off to a hot start in a bid to make it 7 in a row. For context: Papi had 5 years in a row as a top-5 MVP candidate, and 9 years out of 10 an All-Star (2004-2013, save '09).

Just an incredible run in his 30s. I'm hard pressed to think of a position player who was so much better in his 30s than in his 20s. And he's now up to 85 bWAR. HOF Monitor has him at 128 (avg HOFer = 100), HOF Standards is at 48 (avg HOFer 50). And he's super-likeable. Definitely a Biggio feel to his candidacy.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Why isn't Beltre a superstar? He's such a good player and so damn likable. Is he the equivalent of a comedian's comedian?

 

[Detts]

*bump*

6 years in a row as a top-15 MVP candidate, 4 of them an all-star and the other 2 years finishing 7th in the MVP. Off to a hot start in a bid to make it 7 in a row. For context: Papi had 5 years in a row as a top-5 MVP candidate, and 9 years out of 10 an All-Star (2004-2013, save '09).

Just an incredible run in his 30s. I'm hard pressed to think of a position player who was so much better in his 30s than in his 20s. And he's now up to 85 bWAR. HOF Monitor has him at 128 (avg HOFer = 100), HOF Standards is at 48 (avg HOFer 50). And he's super-likeable. Definitely a Biggio feel to his candidacy.

Bond's 4 best years were 36-39. Haven't quite put my finger on why that happened.

 

[grimshaw]

Absolutely in my book. 8th in career WAR by a 3B, with a decent shot at moving into 5th ahead of Brooks Robinson, Brett and Chipper Jones, and just behind Boggs.
2nd best defensive WAR in history by a 3B. A well above average offensive player, consistently good, occasionally great (career wRC+ of 114, slugging of .477, wOBA of .349.

I think the reason he doesn't get more attention is that he had a superstar year (.388/.629 wRC+ 161 with 48 home runs) 11+ years ago and didn't come anywhere close to it again until his contract year in Boston. I think expectations on his offense were higher and defensive value still wasn't given as much oomph, in the early 2000's. Now that it is more measurable, wow. His counting stats also aren't eye-popping, and he only cracks the top 25 in one stat - doubles (though 31st in XBH).

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Absolutely in my book. 8th in career WAR by a 3B, with a decent shot at moving into 5th ahead of Brooks Robinson, Brett and Chipper Jones, and just behind Boggs.
2nd best defensive WAR in history by a 3B. A well above average offensive player, consistently good, occasionally great (career wRC+ of 114, slugging of .477, wOBA of .349.

I think the reason he doesn't get more attention is that he had a superstar year (.388/.629 wRC+ 161 with 48 home runs) 11+ years ago and didn't come anywhere close to it again until his contract year in Boston. I think expectations on his offense were higher and defensive value still wasn't given as much oomph, in the early 2000's. Now that it is more measurable, wow. His counting stats also aren't eye-popping, and he only cracks the top 25 in one stat - doubles (though 31st in XBH).

As SH suggested upthread, we likely won't have to worry about advanced stats confounding anyone--Beltre is going to make it nice and easy for even the simplest of BBWAA idiots. Barring injury, sometime around the middle of next season he'll reach 3000, which has proven to be 100% predictive among players who haven't been caught roiding or gambling.

 

[SoxJox]

If not a HOFer, certainly a GIFer. Yes, in my book. Head rubs in Cooperstown.