Indy Week

[Reverend]

I've seen a bit of narrative on twitter today saying the Colts lost because of the fake punt. While it certainly seemed to be the straw that broke their back, the Colts were losing at that point, and it took a gift pick 6 to have them not down 13+.
 
Looking forward to see what NE can do now that this game is behind them.

 

Cross-posting from the media forum, but Barnwell hit on a lot of good points today. While the discussion has been mostly about the fake punt, and that the Colts should be encouraged since they only lost by 7 despite giving away the 7 points, he seems to realize that this was closer to a blowout than the score indicated, and that the Colts were basically admitting with their gameplan that they can't straight up beat the Pats

 
ITP has recently been granted access to use some interesting game mapping stuff--you can read a tutorial on reading them here--that suggests that the fake punt was the turning point, but it was the pick-6 that had the Colts in the game at all (though turnovers are part of the game, so that's not necessarily a negative) but the overall trend is the Pats outplaying them.
 
Top graph charts drives, bottom one tracks the overall game:
 

I also see a defense that struggled a lot, but pulled together at the end to seal off a victory. Very classic Belichick team narrative for the past few years.

 

[Spelunker]

I'm sitting in the bar at work doing reviews, and they have ESPN on. They've been showing all the glorious Colts twitter photoshop jobs making fun of that for a while now. I was confused for a second when I saw the 'worst play' banner in this thread and then beyond my laptop on the TV simultaneously. This is really something to savor, even if we couldn't savor a more clear-cut blowout.

 

[DJnVa]

Edit: Not sure what your last paragraph was about but I'll assume it wasn't directed at me.

 

Oh, it was. I was saying that if there is a pic of the ball on the ground I'd love to see it.
 
I wasn't being snarky, just wondering if there's a shot I haven't seen.

 

[djbayko]

 
Oh, it was. I was saying that if there is a pic of the ball on the ground I'd love to see it.
 
I wasn't being snarky, just wondering if there's a shot I haven't seen.

Okay, I read it as being snarky. My apologies. I guess the amount of snark in this place makes people defensive soemtimes

Like I said, I can't find the video right now on my phone, only stills. Might be easier to find on a PC. You could be right. I just remember my reaction to seeing the video, but perhaps it was tinted by my bias.

 

[soxhop411]

Andrew Siciliano ‏@AndrewSiciliano  4m4 minutes ago
Just now...Chuck Pagano:
"I don't regret the play call at all."
 
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet  5m5 minutes ago
At his presser, #Colts coach Chuck Pagano said “not at all” when asked if he regrets the fake punt call. Says he’s not happy with execution

 

[lexrageorge]

There was TD catch in the first quarter by Moncrief where the ball came loose after he went out of bounds.  The replay clearly showed that his knee touched the ground before the arm, and Moncrief clearly had control when the knee went down, which makes the catch a TD.  
 
I did not see any replays of the catch by Hilton late in the half, but that one seemed legit at first glance.  

 

[DJnVa]

There was TD catch in the first quarter by Moncrief where the ball came loose after he went out of bounds.  The replay clearly showed that his knee touched the ground before the arm, and Moncrief clearly had control when the knee went down, which makes the catch a TD.  

 

I don't think that's right. A player must complete the catch even in the end zone.
 
 
This is from Mike Pereira:
 

If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass(with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball until after his initial contact with the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone.

 
I don't recall that ball coming loose anyway.

 

[soxhop411]

Bob Kravitz ‏@bkravitz  12m12 minutes ago
Pagano - Design was to get them with 12 players or burn a timeout. That was the idea. I obviously didn't do a good enough job coaching it up

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Bob Kravitz ‏@bkravitz  12m12 minutes ago
Pagano - Design was to get them with 12 players or burn a timeout. That was the idea. I obviously didn't do a good enough job coaching it up

BUT IT WAS A MATTER OF EXECUTION (that's YOU, players!) AND I DONT REGRET THE CALL.

Amazing.

 

[lexrageorge]

On Moncrief's catch, the ball hit the ground while it was in his arm.  But his arm and the ball was out of bounds, and the knee being down is equivalent to having 2 feet contact the ground before going out of bounds.  I thought this was the catch in question.  
 
If it was Hilton's catch, again a screen shot or similar would be nice; the telecast paid little attention to that catch. 

 

[Jimbodandy]

Bob Kravitz ‏@bkravitz  12m12 minutes ago
Pagano - Design was to get them with 12 players or burn a timeout. That was the idea. I obviously didn't do a good enough job coaching it up

 
I love the thought process there.  "Yeah we'll confuse them and get them to burn a time out."  That's not even hubris.  It's delusional.

 

[DJnVa]

On Moncrief's catch, the ball hit the ground while it was in his arm.  But his arm and the ball was out of bounds, and the knee being down is equivalent to having 2 feet contact the ground before going out of bounds.  I thought this was the catch in question.  
 
If it was Hilton's catch, again a screen shot or similar would be nice; the telecast paid little attention to that catch. 

 

The ball can touch the ground. The ball cannot come loose if he goes to ground, even after his knee is down in the end zone. It's not like a running play where as soon as the ball cross the plane the play is over.

 

[Byrdbrain]

It was Hilton's catch, there was a video that clearly showed it loose as he turned over.
I will now venture into the interwebs in an attempt to retrieve it and post it here.
 
Here it is:
http://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/857967
 
 
Edit:Clearly is a stretch but it sure seems like the ball comes loose 

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

[video]https://youtu.be/3JP4Y0Xcm4g[/video]

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Locker room video
 
http://www.patriots.com/video/2015/10/19/exclusive-locker-room-celebration-indy

You know the old cliche, "act like you've been there before?" This video is a team acting like they've been there before. Because they have.

 

[djbayko]

Okay DrewDawg, Byrdbrain found the video a couple posts above. I stand by my original assessment - it's undeniable that the ball came loose. If that's his elbow, then he should have been shipped to the emergency room with the way it was wobbling around.

 

[weeba]

You know the old cliche, "act like you've been there before?" This video is a team acting like they've been there before. Because they have.

Slater states the goal perfectly. "One more point than the other team"

That's all it takes.

 

[j44thor]

It was Hilton's catch, there was a video that clearly showed it loose as he turned over.
I will now venture into the interwebs in an attempt to retrieve it and post it here.
 
Here it is:
http://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/857967
 
 
Edit:Clearly is a stretch but it sure seems like the ball comes loose 

 
I've watched that frame by frame and have no idea what I'm supposed to be seeing.  I don't think there is close to clear evidence to overturn the call on the field.

 

[Ed Hillel]

That dude's hand gets in the way at the precise frame. I think he dropped it, but there's not enough there to overturn without a blown up frame, which it's possible they could have had.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

You know the old cliche, "act like you've been there before?" This video is a team acting like they've been there before. Because they have.

This video must be so insulting to the people Indianapolis. This was their super bowl and the Pats approached it like it was just a speed bump

 

[Dehere]

 
I love the thought process there.  "Yeah we'll confuse them and get them to burn a time out."  That's not even hubris.  It's delusional.

Even if that was the thinking, why snap the ball? Take the delay of game, line up again and punt.

 

[mwonow]

This video must be so insulting to the people Indianapolis. This was their super bowl and the Pats approached it like it was just a speed bump

Hey - either way, they can hang their participant banner! So there's that, and no Pats "victory cool" can take it away...  

 

[DJnVa]

That dude's hand gets in the way at the precise frame. I think he dropped it, but there's not enough there to overturn without a blown up frame, which it's possible they could have had.

 
The ball is in Hilton's RIGHT arm, not his left, as you can see in this video:
 
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000560799/Colts-T-Y-Hilton-hauls-in-3-yard-touchdown-pass
 
Here's a screen capture--the thing in the green box is NOT the ball, it's in the red box and his hand is clearly around the ball the whole time.
 

 

[Leather]

I'd say his hand is "probably" around the ball the whole time, but there's no way you can definitively say it did not pop out and he recovered with the same arm from that photo/video.

 

[k-factory]

From a schadenfreude perspective the result was more delicious than a blowout.
Perhaps the game wasn't as close as the six points at the time of the fake punt cluster but that's immaterial. That is what is going to define that game and the media are going to hang on to it and ridicule that franchise for a good long time. For all the cheating bs we've been subjected to, being an ongoing subject of mockery for your stupidity is probably worse.
 
Not to mention a significant hit to the credibility of this team in the narrative that 'deflated' balls had something to do with getting stomped by the Pats in the AFC championship game. Everyone has to be questioning that now. Notice the rhetorical shift from the media talking up the discipline and professionalism of the Pats and contrasting that with the chaos and ineptitude of the Colts? The media are sharks. All they want are soap operas to fuel clicks. Thats the business they are in. Its generally not personal.
 
Between this dumpster fire and Harbaugh's 1-5 start the karma train is full steam ahead. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Talking with a buddy while watching the game, we agreed that while a blowout would be great a close game with a gut punch would be even better. I couldn't have dreamed up the fake punt, the failed onside kicks or the Collins play but those just made it way more enjoyable than a blowout in my opinion. The screen shots of colts fans in the second half were priceless.

 

[DJnVa]

I'd say his hand is "probably" around the ball the whole time, but there's no way you can definitively say it did not pop out and he recovered with the same arm from that photo/video.

 
Sure, but I also don't think there's anything showing it did anything at all. And there's certainly no proof it was loose, which is what some people on twitter are saying that video shows.
 
I think that a lot of people are looking at the wrong thing in the video.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Louis Riddick, one of the best football analysts out there, says there's no way they snapped the ball w/o Pagano's signal:
 
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=13925320 (link opens a podcast)

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Louis Riddick, one of the best football analysts out there, says there's no way they snapped the ball w/o Pagano's signal:
 
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=13925320 (link opens a podcast)

He left out that the signal for snapping the ball was for Pagano to have a blank, confused, overwhelmed expression on his face.

 

[soxfan121]

Louis Riddick, one of the best football analysts out there, says there's no way they snapped the ball w/o Pagano's signal:
 
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=13925320 (link opens a podcast)

 
Co-sign. Riddick is the best analyst in the business.

 

[wiffleballhero]

For what it is worth, Slater was not on crutches when he is in the locker room there (standing and walking around and everything).

 

[djbayko]

Louis Riddick, one of the best football analysts out there, says there's no way they snapped the ball w/o Pagano's signal:
 
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=13925320 (link opens a podcast)

I'm not listening to that podcast, but lip reading on the sidelines, we saw Pagano ask his player why he snapped the ball. It would take some guts to say that for the cameras or whoever is listening when he knows full well that he called for it. That's how you lose players.

 

[In Vino Vinatieri]

He left out that the signal for snapping the ball was for Pagano to have a blank, confused, overwhelmed expression on his face.

 
that goes right up there with Eli using the "Time out?" hand-and-facial-expression signal to accidentally call a timeout a week or two ago

 

[Reverend]

https://twitter.com/ITPylon/status/656300599944810496

 

[JimD]

From a schadenfreude perspective the result was more delicious than a blowout.
Perhaps the game wasn't as close as the six points at the time of the fake punt cluster but that's immaterial. That is what is going to define that game and the media are going to hang on to it and ridicule that franchise for a good long time. For all the cheating bs we've been subjected to, being an ongoing subject of mockery for your stupidity is probably worse.
 
Not to mention a significant hit to the credibility of this team in the narrative that 'deflated' balls had something to do with getting stomped by the Pats in the AFC championship game. Everyone has to be questioning that now. Notice the rhetorical shift from the media talking up the discipline and professionalism of the Pats and contrasting that with the chaos and ineptitude of the Colts? The media are sharks. All they want are soap operas to fuel clicks. Thats the business they are in. Its generally not personal.
 
Between this dumpster fire and Harbaugh's 1-5 start the karma train is full steam ahead. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

 
The media is really starting to pick up on the fact that Bill Belichick is indeed playing a game of chess while so many of his supposed peers are playing checkers.  Time truly is on the side of BB and the Pats - the more times everyone is treated to ineptitude like this or the hypocrisy of Harbaugh trying to get away with 'illegal' formations himself, the more the stain of Deflategate and maybe even Spygate will fade.  At this point, it's only a matter of time until some media member picks up on another star NFL quarterback having footballs 'prepared' to his liking and the witch hunt against Brady can start to die away too.

 

[tims4wins]

One thing I don't think anyone has brought up is that Indy had an extra 3 days to prepare for the Pats. It just added to their perfect storm of possibly beating the Pats. Extra prep / rest, home game, won the turnover battle / got a defensive score... and still only lost by 7 because they scored in garbage time.
 
It has to be in their heads now that if they have to go to Foxboro in January, they're gonna get trampled. Again.

 

[Stitch01]

It should be, they're likely getting slaughtered if they come to Foxboro without a lot of intervention from injuries

 

[Pandemonium67]

still only lost by 7 because they scored in garbage time.
 

 
I agree completely with the larger point -- the Colts will get crushed if they make it to Foxboro in January (barring a Pats injury epidimic) -- but not with this detail.  The Pats three consecutive three-and-outs left the Colts an open window. That last TD wasn't garbage time. It made it a one-score game, and if the Colts recovered the onside kick sphincters would have slammed shut all over New England. 
 
The Colts were a recovery away from having a decent chance to pull off an epic stunner.  The moral of the story is I wish BB would scrap both the prevent defense and the conservative off-tackle runs and go for the fucking jugular.

 

[rodderick]

 
I agree completely with the larger point -- the Colts will get crushed if they make it to Foxboro in January (barring a Pats injury epidimic) -- but not with this detail.  The Pats three consecutive three-and-outs left the Colts an open window. That last TD wasn't garbage time. It made it a one-score game, and if the Colts recovered the onside kick sphincters would have slammed shut all over New England. 
 
The Colts were a recovery away from having a decent chance to pull off an epic stunner.  The moral of the story is I wish BB would scrap both the prevent defense and the conservative off-tackle runs and go for the fucking jugular.

 
So they were an onside kick recovery away from being 40 yards away from being an extra point away from tying the game, in one minute with no timeouts. Sounds pretty garbage timey to me.

 

[Devizier]

I wouldn't call the touchdown "garbage time", but it wasn't high leverage, either. The Patriots executed their major objective on that scoring drive: force the Colts to burn the clock. The minor objective was to prevent a touchdown, but the odds difference is probably a swing of a few percentage points.

Using a back of the envelope calculator from advanced football stats, the Colts had ~1% likelihood of winning at the beginning of their scoring drive. If they had recovered the onside kick their percentage jumps to 10%. Given that the likelihood of recovering an onside kick is ~20%, the touchdown drive saw the Colts' odds improve by ... 1%.

 

[edmunddantes]

The stain isn't going away. 
 
Per Bruce Allen, check out the second paragraph of this Panthers piece.
 
https://twitter.com/bruceallen/status/656479798793932800
 
Dear @ESPN - I believe the 2nd paragraph of this story could use a "tighter edit."
 

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The last time the Carolina Panthers started a season with five straight wins, they made it to the Super Bowl against theNew England Patriots.
 
They lost 32-29 in February 2004, although some that were with the Panthers' organization then still believe the Patriots gained an advantage by illegally taping Carolina practices prior to the title game in Houston.
 

 

[biollante]

How does Pagano hold on to his job ?
 
That play looked like something I would scratch on the ground during recess during 4th grade.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

 
So they were an onside kick recovery away from being 40 yards away from being an extra point away from tying the game, in one minute with no timeouts. Sounds pretty garbage timey to me.

If it was garbage time, BB wouldn't have called the Collins jump-the-line-play.  The game was not without doubt until the Pats recovered the onsides kick, I don't know how you can argue against that.

 

[Leather]

Practices, Games, Rams, Panthers...
 
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE, AMIRITE?

 

[dcmissle]

He doesn't, but not for that reason. Irsay probably sides with Grigson, who may as well be a Patriots' plant. And in ten years in Indy, they will be calling him a Patriots' plant.

 

[Leather]

If it was garbage time, BB wouldn't have called the Collins jump-the-line-play.  The game was not without doubt until the Pats recovered the onsides kick, I don't know how you can argue against that.

 
The odds of the Patriots winning when they were up by 13 with 3:16 left, Indy ball on their own 15, were extremely high.
 
It was totally irrational to be worried about the outcome at that point.  If you were a neutral observer (say, a fan of the Bears), you'd be 95% sure the Patriots would win, because teams in that situation win almost every single time.

 

[Stitch01]

 
I agree completely with the larger point -- the Colts will get crushed if they make it to Foxboro in January (barring a Pats injury epidimic) -- but not with this detail.  The Pats three consecutive three-and-outs left the Colts an open window. That last TD wasn't garbage time. It made it a one-score game, and if the Colts recovered the onside kick sphincters would have slammed shut all over New England. 
 
The Colts were a recovery away from having a decent chance to pull off an epic stunner.  The moral of the story is I wish BB would scrap both the prevent defense and the conservative off-tackle runs and go for the fucking jugular.

So I hate going conservative with the lead too early, but I dont really think there was a problem with that here. 
 
They got the ball back up two scores with 11:24 to go and ran the ball on first down, a reasonable choice and it got 8 yards.
They ran it on 2nd and 2, came up just short (looked like a bad spot, but OK), but given down and distance seems fine
They ran it on 3rd and 1.  Brady didnt get there on a sneak which doesnt happen very often
 
So three runs, but not really overly conservative given the 8 yard gain on first down
 
Next drive with 6:30 to go
First down run, a little conservative but running on first down is fine
Now on 2nd and long they try to throw and its incomplete
3rd and long they try to throw and Brady gets sacked
 
So they didnt turtle this drive or anything, just didnt execute
 
Next drive with 3:30 left.  They do run the ball three times in a row, including on long yardage situations after the delay of game/TO mess, but I think its reasonable to do so up two scores.  Running three times makes it really likely that, at minimum, the Colts are going to need to recover an onside kick to win the game.
 
So I dont really think that's overly conservative play calling up 13.  Its more conservative than the Pats usually are, but given the situation and the matchup (running the ball on first down wasnt a nearly automatic 2nd and 9 like against the Jets or someone in that spot) I would have called it exactly the same way.  Maybe ran a play action pass on first down on the second drive, but that seems like its sort of quibbling.
 
My issues with game management were that 1) I thought they were a little conservative with the clock to end the first half in a game they were trailing (I understand the logic behind managing the clock the way they did, make sure you get the ball last when you are getting the ball out of the half, but still seemed a little conservative.  At least the sideline used the last TO at 15 seconds rather than try to spike it like Brady wanted to, which would have been shades of the '13 AFC title game bad) and  2) not running the play clock down more on the two punts in the fourth quarter, which cost them an aggregate 30 seconds that would have proved meaningful if the Colts recovered the onside.

 

[Reverend]

If it was garbage time, BB wouldn't have called the Collins jump-the-line-play.  The game was not without doubt until the Pats recovered the onsides kick, I don't know how you can argue against that.

They called the Collins jump the line play because they noticed on film that the Colts line is coached to stay super low and Collins is a freak.

 

[Reverend]

I wouldn't call the touchdown "garbage time", but it wasn't high leverage, either. The Patriots executed their major objective on that scoring drive: force the Colts to burn the clock. The minor objective was to prevent a touchdown, but the odds difference is probably a swing of a few percentage points.

Using a back of the envelope calculator from advanced football stats, the Colts had ~1% likelihood of winning at the beginning of their scoring drive. If they had recovered the onside kick their percentage jumps to 10%. Given that the likelihood of recovering an onside kick is ~20%, the touchdown drive saw the Colts' odds improve by ... 1%.

https://twitter.com/PP_Rich_Hill/status/656461519421476864

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

 
The odds of the Patriots winning when they were up by 13 with 3:16 left, Indy ball on their own 15, were extremely high.
 
It was totally irrational to be worried about the outcome at that point.  If you were a neutral observer (say, a fan of the Bears), you'd be 95% sure the Patriots would win, because teams in that situation win almost every single time.

Yes, down 13 with 3:09 left, it was irrational to be worried, but when they went from the 15 yard line to pull within (possibly) 6 in 100 seconds, it was totally rational to worry that Indy had at least a shot at tying the game up/winning...recovering an onside kick at around the 50 with 1:18 left leaves more than enough time to score a TD...TO or not.
 
It would have taken a lot to break right for Indy to win or tie, I am not denying this, but the question was if that was a garbage time TD, and it was most certainly not.
 
Jax scoring a TD with 1 minute left, down 30+ points is garbage...maybe even Pittsburgh's TD with 2 seconds left to cut it to 7, I will grant you, but not this one.