If we're buyers, who do we spend?

[PrometheusWakefield]

For the purposes of this thread, lets assume we want to make a major upgrade. Who do we trade? What players would we need to trade to get a top talent in return, what players are you willing to trade, what players are you absolutely not willing to trade?
 
Obviously your ideal trade chip is somebody who will fetch a high return, but is maybe not that big part of your future plans, either because he's overvalued by your trading partner or because he's blocked within your organization. 
 
I submit that such a player exists on the Red Sox, and his name is Blake Swihart. 
 
Swihart's rushed trip to the major league level this year was not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination and I think Swihart could certainly have a good career ahead of him. While I don't want to come across as overreacting to a very small sample size from a player who probably should have had more time in AAA, nevertheless, the numbers that we have put Swihart below average both offensively and defensively, and put the catcher position as the biggest positional weakness on the team. I get that the defensive numbers are especially tricky given the small sample size, but the slightly negative result is about what most people would have expected from the scouting reports and it seems pretty unlikely that he's a good defensive catcher. 
 
Given time, he'll probably hit better and continue to develop as a receiver. But do the Red Sox really want to give him that time? I feel far more confident in going into 2016 with Hanigan and Vazquez as the starters, and both of them are under team control at budget rates. I don't see where Swihart fits in an era where catcher defense is far more important than catcher offense. I liked Swihart-Hamels during the offseaon; I still like it now.
 
Who would you be willing to move in the right deal?

 

[Rasputin]

Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Eduardo Rodriguez are absolute non starters. I might trade them in the right trade but the right trade is not one that's remotely likely to happen.
 
I think Swihart is a huge part of the future. If we hadn't had two catchers injured, he'd still be regarded as the best catching prospect in the game by a lot of folks. He's had a tough transition, but he's shown signs of making the kinds of adjustments necessary to be a big league hitter. It's all small sample sizes all around so we can't come to any firm conclusions, but if, as I suspect, the .737 OPS he's had over the last month is more akin to his offensive level, and if he can make the same strides defensively, then the Sox are going to be as strong up the middle--and for relatively little money--as I can ever remember them being.
 
I would have to get back quite a lot to consider trading Margot, Devers, or Moncada. That means at the very least a very good pitcher who is here for a long time.
 
The same is true with a lower threshhold for JBJ, Owens, and Johnson.
 
And frankly, I think the plan I like the most is using Owens and Johnson to bolster the rotation and bullpen. A rotation of Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Porcello, and Johnson, with Owens and Wright replacing Masterson and Breslow and going out and looking for a relatively cheap first baseman and bullpen arm with "relatively cheap" being defined as not costing anyone I don't want to trade.
 
Of course, with three weeks to go to the deadline, this can all change very quickly.

 

[Troy O'Lovely]

Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Eduardo Rodriguez are absolute non starters. I might trade them in the right trade but the right trade is not one that's remotely likely to happen.
 
I think Swihart is a huge part of the future. If we hadn't had two catchers injured, he'd still be regarded as the best catching prospect in the game by a lot of folks. He's had a tough transition, but he's shown signs of making the kinds of adjustments necessary to be a big league hitter. It's all small sample sizes all around so we can't come to any firm conclusions, but if, as I suspect, the .737 OPS he's had over the last month is more akin to his offensive level, and if he can make the same strides defensively, then the Sox are going to be as strong up the middle--and for relatively little money--as I can ever remember them being.
 
I would have to get back quite a lot to consider trading Margot, Devers, or Moncada. That means at the very least a very good pitcher who is here for a long time.
 
The same is true with a lower threshhold for JBJ, Owens, and Johnson.
 
And frankly, I think the plan I like the most is using Owens and Johnson to bolster the rotation and bullpen. A rotation of Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Porcello, and Johnson, with Owens and Wright replacing Masterson and Breslow and going out and looking for a relatively cheap first baseman and bullpen arm with "relatively cheap" being defined as not costing anyone I don't want to trade.
 
Of course, with three weeks to go to the deadline, this can all change very quickly.

I agree with you, but I'll knock a couple of untouchables off of your list.
 
For the right price I would trade Margot and/or Swihart.  Swihart and/or Vazquez will be worth more to another team looking at a long term starting catcher than to us when either one would be the regular starter, but it can't possibly be both.  Margot has a lot of value to another team as a CF of the future, but he's blocked here in that role by Betts and his value to us takes a hit if we move him off of CF.
 
Owens is a personal bias but I just don't like him as much as everyone else does.  I know, I know he's got so many walks because he's developing a secondary pitch but he's never had control at any level.  However in any event we have him, Johnson and Wright competing for how many starting spots next year?  And it's not like the pipeline behind them is empty, though they're not knocking on the door there's Kopech, Espinosa and the resurgent Trey Ball (a binky of mine for sure).

 

[Brianish]

Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Eduardo Rodriguez are absolute non starters. I might trade them in the right trade but the right trade is not one that's remotely likely to happen.
 

 
This is where I am. The key factor that distinguishes them is that it's reasonable to expect they'll be significant pieces on the major league team on opening day 2016, or not long after. Depending on whether they think his improvement is real, you might say the same about JBJ. Everyone else, I'd hope they listen on, but the big upside guys like Moncada, Kopech and Devers should be awfully expensive. 

 

[jscola85]

Uhhh, I respectfully disagree.  Swihart has been seen as a plus fielder and hitter throughout his time in the minors.  Less than 150 plate appearances in the majors at 23 when he was called up as an emergency won't sway my view.  The metrics on his defense in that sample size are irrelevant, especially since his minor league pitch framing and caught stealing figures suggest he's doing just fine at the key parts of being a backstop.
 
As for the hitting, he was awful to start when called up, but in June he posted a totally respectable .258/.303/.387 triple slash, with a 15/4 K/BB in 66 PAs.  A ~700 OPS would be just fine for a young catcher, thanks, particularly since it's not really a BABIP-induced figure (.294 BABIP in June).

 

[jscola85]

As for my "no trade" list, the only guys would be EdRod, Bogaerts, Betts (all contributing to the MLB team now in a big way, so wouldn't help to trade them), and Swihart.  I like Margot quite a bit but he's blocked by Mookie and we have other guys like Castillo and JBJ.  Owens has lost a bit of shine in AAA, but he was probably never a true untouchable like Bogaerts anyways.  Devers has big upside but it's just too far away to see if it will come together; same for Moncada, Kopech, and anyone below a significant amount of time in A+.
 
Now, that's not to say I'm dangling guys like Kopech and Moncada in deals, just that if acquiring someone like Cueto means giving up one key prospect, I'd rather let go of a guy in Greenville with a long road ahead than someone like Swihart who plays a super-premium position and has already shown flashes of total competency at a young age in the majors.

 

[Devizier]

None of their prospects in the majors currently. That includes Swihart. Depending on the haul, I wouldn't mind seeing any of their AAA-or-lower guys go.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I would not include Swihart in a deal unless it was a monster, but as Ras mentioned it's a trade that isn't likely to happen (Sale, for example).
 
Betts, EdRod, and X are nonstarters for me, as well, and Moncada just a shade below them. 

Outside of those names, I'd be willing to move anyone in the right deal, including Devers, Margot, Owens, Johnson and Kopech. And those names should bring back some very good talent. I wouldn't want to give up Devers or Margot for a rental, even if it was Cueto, but one of the other three could headline a package for a guy like that. If you're getting Cueto + Chapman, then the compensation goes up, but that seems like a pipe dream right now. 

 

[joe dokes]

I wouldn't include Swihart in any trade unless I was certain of Vazquez's recovery.

 

[Rasputin]

So Ras, you aren't willing to trade anyone?
 
At this point...Owens, Marrero and Bradley seem like the guys the team might be willing to trade and who would have decent value. Swihart strikes me as a guy you'd have to get a lot back for.

 
Um, no. That's not what I said. Just to pick three completely random names out of a hat, two of which I specifically mentioned and one I neglected to because really I don't care that much about him, I'd be willing to trade any or all of Owens, Marrero, or Bradley in the right deal.
 
 

I agree with you, but I'll knock a couple of untouchables off of your list.
 
For the right price I would trade Margot and/or Swihart.  Swihart and/or Vazquez will be worth more to another team looking at a long term starting catcher than to us when either one would be the regular starter, but it can't possibly be both.  Margot has a lot of value to another team as a CF of the future, but he's blocked here in that role by Betts and his value to us takes a hit if we move him off of CF.
 
Owens is a personal bias but I just don't like him as much as everyone else does.  I know, I know he's got so many walks because he's developing a secondary pitch but he's never had control at any level.  However in any event we have him, Johnson and Wright competing for how many starting spots next year?  And it's not like the pipeline behind them is empty, though they're not knocking on the door there's Kopech, Espinosa and the resurgent Trey Ball (a binky of mine for sure).

 
The thing about Margot is he's the closest one to being ready. It's still an open question whether Castillo or Bradley can be an every day player. If they both can, we're in good shape, even when Papi retires which could be as soon as this fall. If one of them fails, we're fine until Papi retires. If both of them fail, we need an outfielder even before Papi retires. Margot is the one guy who is talented enough to be an every day guy who has a chance to be in the bigs sometime in 2016.
 
I'm going to disagree on Swihart not because I think the overall thinking is wrong, but because he's got the athleticism to move to other positions and I think we can get a lot out of that flexibility and really maximize our situational advantages.
 
In my head, I see Swihart learning to play some first and maybe some third and for 2016 having a bench of Vazquez, Holt, Marrero, and JBJ. On any given day, we can start a game with Swihart catching, Bogaerts at short, and Hanley Ramirez in the OF. Come the 8th inning and we're up by a couple runs, we can switch out all three of them, moving Swihart to first, and getting a tremendous boost defensively at catcher, short, and either a huge boost in left or smaller boosts in left and right depending on the details.
 
And mostly, I want to have Swihart and Vazquez around for a long time and I want them both available for the most important games and that means splitting time at catcher a lot closer to 50/50 than 80/20.

 

[billy ashley]

Admitting that I'm just repeating what I've read elsewhere
 
A. Not unless they were offered something stupid good:
 

• Betts- He's proven to be good at just about everything at the major league level and his cost controlled for the next 6 years. Even if he doesn't improve, he's in the conversation for the 50 best position players in baseball. 
• Xander- Xander's development path has not been as smooth as many had hoped, but he's a more than solid major league starting SS at 22. I'm hopeful that the power and walks will come, but at present time he's already solid. He likely has more upside than anyone in the system not named Moncada. 
• Moncada- We spent so much to acquire him and he like Betts has plus tools across every part of the game. He's probably not a middle infielder but even as a corner outfielder his upside seems to be a hybrid of Alex Gordon and Carl Crawford. 

All 3 of these guys have MVP ceilings and relatively low floors. Betts and Xander are already first division starters while Moncada has a variety of tools that should carry him, even if the hit skills never reaches our wildest hopes.
 
B. It would hurt but should be considered a fair price for an elite piece:
 

• Rodriguez- He has solid number 2 upside but has had questions about his command in the recent past. Some people think he could be a 1 (Keith Law for example) but more than likely he's an excellent mid rotation starter. He's proven that he's a viable major league, now. 
• Swihart- Like Moncada and Betts, Swihart does enough things well that it's really difficult seeing him flop. Boston could conceivably trade him for the right piece due to the fact that we have in house options that could be first division starters (Vazquez and to a much lesser extent recent draftee Rei).
• Margot- Another broad skill set player, though with less upside than the others. Some evaporators think Margot could grow into 55-60 power. Others think he's more of a 10-12 homer guy. How a team evaluates his power probably informs their enthuisasim for him. Everything else he does is solid to very good (though he could draw more walks). 
• Devers- The opposite of Margot. There's more risk here due to the fact that he's a thick 3b (though better defensively than you'd think, according to most reports). His bat looks elite though. Devers probably has the biggest delta between ceiling and floor of the higher level prospects in the system because he's carried entirely by the bat. If it stalls out, he's not a major leaguer. 

C. The guys we could afford to give up relatively easily but would not be the center piece of an impact deal:
 

• Brian Johnson- I like Johnson more than most and believe that he could very easily have the most productive career of any of our pitching prospects. Trouble is, the upside is limited. He's most likely a 4, possibly a 3. 
• Henry Owens- More upside than Johnson, though he's somewhat polarizing. His change up is clearly major league ready but his fastball command has been an issue in the past. Also, some people like his curve ball, a lot of others don't. 
• Wendel Rijo- Great glove, pretty good bat and age advanced but completely blocked in Boston. 
• Javy Guerra- Great glove, lots of pop. He's gotten a lot of press lately and may sneak into some top 100 lists this off-season. 
• Kopech- Excellent numbers this year, made the HM list for BA's top 50. 
• Sam Travis- Advanced to AA pretty quickly. Questions about raw power, good hit skills. 

 
D. Throw-ins/ change of scenery guys who could help push a package over the edge:
 

• Cecchini- was well regarded not too long ago. If anyone still believes he can play 3b, they may have some interest
• Bradley- great glove/hit pretty well in AAA last year. Crowded OF picture in Boston may make him a secondary target for some teams
• Barnes- Live arm but has struggled in the majors. Good pedigree.

E. Lottery tickets that get asked about who I hope don't get traded:
 

• Basabe- potential 5 tool OF in Lowell. Has hit homers from both sides of the plate twice this season. 
• Espinosa- already in the GCL at 17, hasn't allowed a run yet this season. Hitting high 90's and polished for his age.
• Aybar- Toolsy OF in the GCL. Lots of raw power and potential hit skill. 

I really think if we may a trade for an impact talent, it's going to take someone from group B. For the right player, we should be willing to give up Margot, Devers, Rodriguez or Swihart. It would suck but it takes talent to get talent. None of these guys should be shipped unless we're getting an impact player in return though. Supplemental pieces should come from groups C and D. I really don't want to give up anyone from group E.

 

[ehaz]

I would not hesitate for a second to include Swihart in a pipe-dream mega package for a Sale/Fernandez/Harvey/Gray kind of pitcher. I'll take a pass on Mark Prio --- I mean, Stephen Strasburg. Not sure what other pitchers are in the cost controlled young ace category, but I bet that Ben is going to be offering exotic packages that don't include Mookie/Xander/Ed (ala the famous King Felix "pick 5" offer). That being said, I do not expect Chicago or Oakland to budge, but I'm sure when that avenue is explored, all options will be open.

There is a front end pitching deficit in this team that won't get filled unless they acquire talent from outside the organization or suddenly (unlikely) change their philosophy regarding long term contracts to 30 year old pitchers.

 

[jimbobim]

Admitting that I'm just repeating what I've read elsewhere
 
A. Not unless they were offered something stupid good:
 

• Betts- He's proven to be good at just about everything at the major league level and his cost controlled for the next 6 years. Even if he doesn't improve, he's in the conversation for the 50 best position players in baseball. 
• Xander- Xander's development path has not been as smooth as many had hoped, but he's a more than solid major league starting SS at 22. I'm hopeful that the power and walks will come, but at present time he's already solid. He likely has more upside than anyone in the system not named Moncada. 
• Moncada- We spent so much to acquire him and he like Betts has plus tools across every part of the game. He's probably not a middle infielder but even as a corner outfielder his upside seems to be a hybrid of Alex Gordon and Carl Crawford. 

All 3 of these guys have MVP ceilings and relatively low floors. Betts and Xander are already first division starters while Moncada has a variety of tools that should carry him, even if the hit skills never reaches our wildest hopes.
 
B. It would hurt but should be considered a fair price for an elite piece:
 

• Rodriguez- He has solid number 2 upside but has had questions about his command in the recent past. Some people think he could be a 1 (Keith Law for example) but more than likely he's an excellent mid rotation starter. He's proven that he's a viable major league, now. 
• Swihart- Like Moncada and Betts, Swihart does enough things well that it's really difficult seeing him flop. Boston could conceivably trade him for the right piece due to the fact that we have in house options that could be first division starters (Vazquez and to a much lesser extent recent draftee Rei).
• Margot- Another broad skill set player, though with less upside than the others. Some evaporators think Margot could grow into 55-60 power. Others think he's more of a 10-12 homer guy. How a team evaluates his power probably informs their enthuisasim for him. Everything else he does is solid to very good (though he could draw more walks). 
• Devers- The opposite of Margot. There's more risk here due to the fact that he's a thick 3b (though better defensively than you'd think, according to most reports). His bat looks elite though. Devers probably has the biggest delta between ceiling and floor of the higher level prospects in the system because he's carried entirely by the bat. If it stalls out, he's not a major leaguer. 

C. The guys we could afford to give up relatively easily but would not be the center piece of an impact deal:
 

• Brian Johnson- I like Johnson more than most and believe that he could very easily have the most productive career of any of our pitching prospects. Trouble is, the upside is limited. He's most likely a 4, possibly a 3. 
• Henry Owens- More upside than Johnson, though he's somewhat polarizing. His change up is clearly major league ready but his fastball command has been an issue in the past. Also, some people like his curve ball, a lot of others don't. 
• Wendel Rijo- Great glove, pretty good bat and age advanced but completely blocked in Boston. 
• Javy Guerra- Great glove, lots of pop. He's gotten a lot of press lately and may sneak into some top 100 lists this off-season. 
• Kopech- Excellent numbers this year, made the HM list for BA's top 50. 
• Sam Travis- Advanced to AA pretty quickly. Questions about raw power, good hit skills. 

 
D. Throw-ins/ change of scenery guys who could help push a package over the edge:
 

• Cecchini- was well regarded not too long ago. If anyone still believes he can play 3b, they may have some interest
• Bradley- great glove/hit pretty well in AAA last year. Crowded OF picture in Boston may make him a secondary target for some teams
• Barnes- Live arm but has struggled in the majors. Good pedigree.

E. Lottery tickets that get asked about who I hope don't get traded:
 

• Basabe- potential 5 tool OF in Lowell. Has hit homers from both sides of the plate twice this season. 
• Espinosa- already in the GCL at 17, hasn't allowed a run yet this season. Hitting high 90's and polished for his age.
• Aybar- Toolsy OF in the GCL. Lots of raw power and potential hit skill. 

I really think if we may a trade for an impact talent, it's going to take someone from group B. For the right player, we should be willing to give up Margot, Devers, Rodriguez or Swihart. It would suck but it takes talent to get talent. None of these guys should be shipped unless we're getting an impact player in return though. Supplemental pieces should come from groups C and D. I really don't want to give up anyone from group E.

Excellent list. Margot or Devers is an interesting dilemma. I might hang onto Devers bat even if he's further away. 

 

[OCD SS]

I definitely keep Devers over Margot for the power in his bat (in the IF, even if its at 1B) vs. the relative surplus of OFers.

I think people are overestimating the ease at replacing Napoli with someone better. It's great in the abstract when you're still thinking about replacement level bats like this is the steroid era, but when you start digging up actual names who might be available they sound like Travis Shaw.

 

[MikeM]

Given time, he'll probably hit better and continue to develop as a receiver. But do the Red Sox really want to give him that time? I feel far more confident in going into 2016 with Hanigan and Vazquez as the starters, and both of them are under team control at budget rates. I don't see where Swihart fits in an era where catcher defense is far more important than catcher offense. I liked Swihart-Hamels during the offseaon; I still like it now.
 

 
I supported the aggressive concept of trading Swihart for Hamels before Vaz's injury, and when i thought both the offense/team had a more legitimate chance to be better then we actually played out to be. That was then though, and this is now.
 
While i get Hanigan's contribution looks pretty good in the moment, it again is worth pointing out that the guy is still a 34 year old player coming off 2 declining seasons, and who i don't believe has ever been a regular at the MLB level. Combine that with the gigantic question mark surrounding Vaz atm, and i just can't share that same level of confidence in a notion that we'd be left comfortably covered post-Swihart trade. Especially when that new era you speak of is still essentially falling in the realm of speculative theory, where we ourselves haven't actually played through a season that mattered with a potential black hole at catcher while maintaining a conclusion that the perceived gain at defense is worth the trade off.
 
Leaving Swihart and his pedigree back on my untouchable list, joining Betts/Xander/Edro. Beyond them though, everybody else should be on the table. Preferably aiming for deals that cash in some pure potential for cost controlled production.  
 
(not sure why people keep throwing around Moncada's name here though. For all intentional purposes, he has no realistic value outside this organization atm. So he's not going anywhere regardless)

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

 
I supported the aggressive concept of trading Swihart for Hamels before Vaz's injury, and when i thought both the offense/team had a more legitimate chance to be better then we actually played out to be. That was then though, and this is now.
 
While i get Hanigan's contribution looks pretty good in the moment, it again is worth pointing out that the guy is still a 34 year old player coming off 2 declining seasons, and who i don't believe has ever been a regular at the MLB level. Combine that with the gigantic question mark surrounding Vaz atm, and i just can't share that same level of confidence in a notion that we'd be left comfortably covered post-Swihart trade. Especially when that new era you speak of is still essentially falling in the realm of speculative theory, where we ourselves haven't actually played through a season that mattered with a potential black hole at catcher while maintaining a conclusion that the perceived gain at defense is worth the trade off.
 
Leaving Swihart and his pedigree back on my untouchable list, joining Betts/Xander/Edro. Beyond them though, everybody else should be on the table. Preferably aiming for deals that cash in some pure potential for cost controlled production.  
 
(not sure why people keep throwing around Moncada's name here though. For all intentional purposes, he has no realistic value outside this organization atm. So he's not going anywhere regardless)

Well, Moncada has a ton of value outside the organization. Including "intentional purposes", whatever that is.

He's ranked as a top 20 prospect by most guys, was generally considered to have theoretically been a top two or three pick in the past draft and on top of that, he's now basically free dollar wise. The money that the Sox paid for him was a signing bonus (and tax), so his salary is essentially that of any other minor leaguer.

If it were allowed and you offered a top 3 pick in the draft *and* offered to pay the signing bonus, you don't think that would have trade value? What about all the teams that also bid on him and lost out? They wouldn't value him?

I agree when you say he's not going anywhere, but only because they did just spend $63M on him and basically forfeited any international FAs this year because they liked him so much. They're not going to trade him right now, but it's not because his value is only to the Red Sox.

 

[MikeM]

I agree when you say he's not going anywhere, but only because they did just spend $63M on him and basically forfeited any international FAs this year because they liked him so much. They're not going to trade him right now, but it's not because his value is only to the Red Sox.

 
Which is exactly what the "for all intentional purposes" was referring to. Any trade value that would otherwise exist there was completely negated by the commitment we just made, and logically would be looking to recoup on. That's just a reality that comes with the turf of blowing away the field on a player like Moncada. 
 
It's not like Ben will be picking up the phone tomorrow and offering Owens/Moncada+ for Hamels without hearing "click" the moment that $63m gets thrown in the mix. 

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Are they offering him for trade by accident or do you mean "all intents and purposes"?

 

[MikeM]

Are they offering him for trade by accident or do you mean "all intents and purposes"?

 
 I meant any deliberate trade where his internal value here would be consciously noted. If you would prefer it phrased better though, which noted it should of been, then sure.
 
Point still being he's a complete non-factor as far as potential trade chips go atm. 

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Got it. So it's the accidental trades we are concerned with. Noted. 

 

[MikeM]

Got it. So it's the accidental trades we are concerned with. Noted. 

 
You already "got it" when you essentially agreed that your presented possibility suggested above, where we would theoretically trade Moncada *and* pick up his signing bonus, would never actually happen.  

 

[billy ashley]

As others have suggested, Moncada has a ton of value to other teams.
 
We're talking about a guy who is generally regarded to have a 50-60 hit tool, a 60 power tool, a 60-70 speed tool and a 50-60 fielding tool. His transition has been a little rougher than some people expected but A) he hadn't played baseball in 18 months before debuting this season and B) he's actually been raking over the past month. His tools are so great that he's generally been ranked in the top 20 in every list he's been eligible for, despite having not played/been playing through an adjustment period this year.

He's no guarantee to succeed, but his ceiling is incredible. Further, he's good enough at enough things that if he doesn't fully develop in one area, he's probably still a first division starter. Could he flop? Sure. But he's got a lot of things going for him.
 
These types of guys get traded every once in a while, but it should be limited to Miguel Cabrera types.

 

[nighthob]

You already "got it" when you essentially agreed that your presented possibility suggested above, where we would theoretically trade Moncada *and* pick up his signing bonus, would never actually happen.

The phrase is not "for all intentional purposes" it's "for all intents and purposes".

 

[billy ashley]

The Dodgers allegedly offered more money if Moncada would wait until after the deadline to sign (they hadn't blown their IFA budget yet and were planning to this time around, which they have).
 
Trouble is of course, is that the Dodgers are currently trying to win the World Series, so they're not exactly sellers.
 
The same is true of the Cubs and a few other teams to a lesser extent but I get your point.
 
Moncada's bonus really doesn't matter to the team acquiring him, as Rudy mentions, its a hurdle for the Sox. Though I don't think it's necessarily a deal breaker by itself.
 
I wouldn't trade Moncada because of his upside, but if faced with the prospect of getting a generational talent the Sox might include him as part of a package. Those trades just don't happen often enough to suspect it's going to happen.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Fwiw, the Sox were already over the international cap so they didn't sacrafice their 15, 16 international drafts for Moncada.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

As others have suggested, Moncada has a ton of value to other teams.
 
We're talking about a guy who is generally regarded to have a 50-60 hit tool, a 60 power tool, a 60-70 speed tool and a 50-60 fielding tool. His transition has been a little rougher than some people expected but A) he hadn't played baseball in 18 months before debuting this season and B) he's actually been raking over the past month. His tools are so great that he's generally been ranked in the top 20 in every list he's been eligible for, despite having not played/been playing through an adjustment period this year.

He's no guarantee to succeed, but his ceiling is incredible. Further, he's good enough at enough things that if he doesn't fully develop in one area, he's probably still a first division starter. Could he flop? Sure. But he's got a lot of things going for him.
 
These types of guys get traded every once in a while, but it should be limited to Miguel Cabrera types.

 
.576 OPS in his first 25 games. .969 in the 14 since with 5 doubles, a triple and 10 stolen bases.

 

[benhogan]

 
.576 OPS in his first 25 games. .969 in the 14 since with 5 doubles, a triple and 10 stolen bases.

0 for 5 today with 4 Ks...the Golden Sombrero
 
All this trade talk swirling around SoSH is getting to him...cool it guys.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Of course Moncada has a lot of value, but the Sox paid a lot of money to get him- they valued him more than anyone else no that long ago. So to trade him now would be like trading Sandoval or Castillo; you are going to lose out on the deal unless there's a reason to think he's gained value in the team since acquired.

 
The money they paid to get him is really beside the point. They paid that price to acquire the player's value. Whether that value is realized in the form of a Moncada Sox career or somebody else's Sox career is an interesting question but not really a material one. Of course they could make a bad trade that fails to return what turns out to be full value for Moncada, but it's just as likely they could make a brilliant trade that returns much more.
 
If what you're saying is simply that you think Moncada's stock is low right now so it's a bad time to trade him, you may be right (though as Snod and others have pointed out, you're less likely to be right than you were a month ago). But this is true, or not true, regardless of the signing bonus.

 

[Otis Foster]

Of course Moncada has a lot of value, but the Sox paid a lot of money to get him- they valued him more than anyone else no that long ago. So to trade him now would be like trading Sandoval or Castillo; you are going to lose out on the deal unless there's a reason to think he's gained value in the team since acquired.
Can someone suggest a deal involving Moncada that would make sense for both sides?

As part of a package for Arnoldis Chapman? Proven big league arm who fills a critical gap (who succeeds Koji?) and in the interim gives them a live arm in addition to Tazawa.

I'm not recommending it (maybe) but Moncada is a sunk cost, and while he has enormous potential, his value may never be higher. If the RS turn down a Chapman deal and Moncada flares out in AA, we may all be gnashing our teeth in a few years.

 

[Toe Nash]

I don't expect it to happen, but Holt is probably our best chip given his versatility. On a fully healthy Red Sox team, Holt is either playing first base (which we're not sure he can do particularly well) or only playing 3 games a week. If (Victorino or Castillo) and Napoli step up their performance, then he's taking PT away from one of them or De Aza, which isn't the best use of resources. There are plenty of contending teams with a weakness at 2b, SS, or OF who would love to have him and slot him in that spot for the rest of the year. Oh, and he's not a FA until 2020.
 
Having a great backup at 5 positions is a nice luxury to have, but the team would probably be better overall if they could convert that into a good starting pitcher and replace him with not-as-good backups.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I've probably said this already, but I just think some kind of a trade that sends JBJ and Marrero to San Diego makes so much sense for both sides. They have pieces the Sox can use (Alonso, Benoit, Cashner, Ross, Kimbrel) and holes at CF and SS. I think they'd need to add someone else (Owens?) if they want to make a good deal, but it just seems like a logical match to me of teams and assets.

 

[grimshaw]

As part of a package for Arnoldis Chapman? Proven big league arm who fills a critical gap (who succeeds Koji?) and in the interim gives them a live arm in addition to Tazawa.

I'm not recommending it (maybe) but Moncada is a sunk cost, and while he has enormous potential, his value may never be higher. If the RS turn down a Chapman deal and Moncada flares out in AA, we may all be gnashing our teeth in a few years.

You want to trade a top 15 in all of baseball prospect as "part of a package" for Aroldis Chapman?
We are apparently in crazy season.
 
The average age of players in low A is 21.  Moncada just turned 20 a month and a half ago.  All of a sudden we move him for a closer because he isn't slugging .500 after not playing for over a year?
 
He's played 40 freaking games and he's a sunk cost!?

 

[BornToRun]

You want to trade a top 15 in all of baseball prospect as "part of a package" for Aroldis Chapman?
We are apparently in crazy season.
 
The average age of players in low A is 21.  Moncada just turned 20 a month and a half ago.  All of a sudden we move him for a closer because he isn't slugging .500 after not playing for over a year?
 
He's played 40 freaking games and he's a sunk cost!?

I don't care how good Chapman is or how many years of control he has left, I'm not trading Yoan Moncada for a relief pitcher.

 

[bosockboy]

I've probably said this already, but I just think some kind of a trade that sends JBJ and Marrero to San Diego makes so much sense for both sides. They have pieces the Sox can use (Alonso, Benoit, Cashner, Ross, Kimbrel) and holes at CF and SS. I think they'd need to add someone else (Owens?) if they want to make a good deal, but it just seems like a logical match to me of teams and assets.

Agreed. We can solve most of our problems with one club.

 

[BornToRun]

Agreed. We can solve most of our problems with one club.

Kimbrel and one of Cashner/Ross would be a pretty sweet deal. Kimbrel is having a bit of a down year but he's still effective, young, and under control past this season. Cashner doesn't hit FA until after 2016 IIRC.

 

[lurker42]

I've probably said this already, but I just think some kind of a trade that sends JBJ and Marrero to San Diego makes so much sense for both sides. They have pieces the Sox can use (Alonso, Benoit, Cashner, Ross, Kimbrel) and holes at CF and SS. I think they'd need to add someone else (Owens?) if they want to make a good deal, but it just seems like a logical match to me of teams and assets.

 

Kimbrel and one of Cashner/Ross would be a pretty sweet deal. Kimbrel is having a bit of a down year but he's still effective, young, and under control past this season. Cashner doesn't hit FA until after 2016 IIRC.

 
Living in San Diego and being a Padres season ticket holder, I can tell you that the Padres would have little interest in these sorts of deals.  They're in a similar position as the Red Sox, in that they expected to be competitive this year but got some bad breaks and under-performances that may land them as sellers.  However, they (not completely unreasonably) believe they still have a window to be a contender over the next 2-3 years.  Guys like Alonso, Cashner, Ross, and Kimbrel are considered important parts of the 2016 Padres (and there really aren't any internal replacement options), so the cost to acquire them would almost definitely be more than the Sox would be comfortable paying.
 
If/when they go into seller mode, expect Benoit and Kennedy to be shopped.  Role players on short deals (Barmes, Morrow, etc.) would be available if anyone wants them.
 
Justin Upton is the big question mark.  The Padres certainly have an idea how much it would cost to re-sign him, and if it's something they can't or won't pay then he'll be available at the deadline as well.  There's been no indication publicly either way, though.
 
The Padres do not have a hole in CF.  Venable is an above-average player, and the team has at least publicly expressed a belief that they can get BJ/Melvin Upton straightened out (not sure I believe that last bit, but either way Venable keeps CF from being a liability).
 
Their biggest problem this year has been a lineup that's too top-heavy.  Kemp's had a terrible year, Gyorko only recently seems to have gotten his mechanics straightened out after last year's foot problems, Middleboorks can't handle anything on the outer half, and nobody expected Amarista to hit.  Add in the pitcher's spot, and you're left with a lot of innings where they really aren't a threat to score.
 
The Padres will be looking for infield bats and a starter or two.  I can't see them giving up much for Marrero, who's no guarantee to hit any better than Amarista.

There could be a match around Benoit for Johnson or Owens, but we're wishcasting if we think the Sox are getting Alonso or Ross for a package built around Marrero and JBJ.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
 
Guys like Alonso, Cashner, Ross, and Kimbrel are considered important parts of the 2016 Padres (and there really aren't any internal replacement options), so the cost to acquire them would almost definitely be more than the Sox would be comfortable paying.
 

 
I noticed you left out Shields, a guy who in theory should be part of that group. There are rumors he is on the block, maybe that's why. I have seen a couple of his starts, and it looked like had lost some velocity, was living mostly high 80s.  But Fangraphs has him at 91.4, around his career average, so maybe he was just tiring those particular games. 
 
Shields has had a big strikeout bump this year, but also a big HR jump.  Would be interesting to see how much, if anything, the Red Sox would be willing to give up for a guy they could have pursued on the FA market in the offseason. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Do we know that Shields doesn't have any type of no trade clause?  Given how much he wanted to head west, I'm surprised if he doesn't.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Do we know that Shields doesn't have any type of no trade clause?  Given how much he wanted to head west, I'm surprised if he doesn't.

 
According to Cot's, there isn't a no-trade clause, but he has an opt-out after the 2016 season.
 
As disappointing as the Padres' season has been, I can't imagine they're going to pull a Marlins and start trading off all their recent acquisitions just because their chances in 2015 are slipping away.  They've got a core that can still make a run at 2016 and even 2017, and that core includes Shields.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
According to Cot's, there isn't a no-trade clause, but he has an opt-out after the 2016 season.
 
As disappointing as the Padres' season has been, I can't imagine they're going to pull a Marlins and start trading off all their recent acquisitions just because their chances in 2015 are slipping away.  They've got a core that can still make a run at 2016 and even 2017, and that core includes Shields.

 
Who knows what will end up happening, but apparently he is being shopped.
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2520781-mlb-trade-rumors-analyzing-buzz-on-cole-hamels-james-shields-and-more

 

[bosockboy]

Shields at that price tag is quite a bargain.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Hell I would ask the Padres if they would like to do a straight up deal of Shields for Porcello. They would probably hang up but you never know.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm guessing that the Sox will pick up one of the bigger pending FA pitchers this offseason and it will be for significantly less than Scherzer or Lester got (closer to Porcello's number).  The amount of teams with big pockets to spend $25million or more per season isn't as high (I don't believe) as it was last season and the amount of high quality pitchers flooding the market this season will help keep costs lower.
I don't think Cueto, Zimmerman, Price, etc.... will be above $25M and 7 years....  I could see somewhere in the $22.5 per year for 7 years or $25 per for 5 years range which I think the Sox will bite on with a few of those guys.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

You know, i's not the standings at halftime that dictate buy or sell, it's whether or not a team has the talent to make a legitimate run and then succeed in post season.
 
The only AL East teams that have a legitimate chance are (in order) the Orioles and Yankees, with the O's having a distinct edge.
 
Orioles: 6th in overall pitching (behind Tampa); Just behind the Yankees in starters but best (3rd best overall) in bullpen; 4th best in the AL in OPS (just behind the Yankees) and fewest errors in the AL (Yanks 2nd worst)
 
The Yankee starters are a mirage and so is their toilet power. Teams that rely on the HR rarely go all the way.
 
Legitimate AL contenders include the Royales, Astors, Angles and Oreos. The Yankees will make some stupid mid-season move that gets them nowhere.
 
Red Sox need to stand pat and just give things a chance to work out, unless they're improving for the future.

 

[grimshaw]

I don't care how good Chapman is or how many years of control he has left, I'm not trading Yoan Moncada for a relief pitcher.

Single, double, homer and steal (15 of 15) today.
TRADE HIM!

 

[dcmissle]

Either make big moves with potential impact on years -- plural -- or stand pat. Or sell, though I don't think they will do that or get much if they do.

No half measures on the buy side. Our pitching, especially SP, isn't close to good enough to be legit post season competitors.

 

[Plympton91]

This weekend should end any thoughts of being buyers.  Not because they lost 2 of 3, but how they did it.
 
Buchholz is out at least 2 weeks, but given the average for pitchers with similar injuries it looks like it could be more like 4 to 6.  Miley once again proved that he's nothing more than a 5th starter.  Yet, because the bullpen isn't any good either, Miley was left in too long, Layne proved the mediocrity he is, and the game got out of hand.  Then again proving the lack of depth in the bullpen, Farrell tried to rid a "hot hand" too far and Ogando tired and gave up any hope of a comeback.
 
This team needs at least half a new pitching staff to meaningfully compete even against the weak AL East.  This is not the year.  Make plans to have that pitching staff in 2016.   It requires a plan to acquire an ace level starting pitcher, and an ace level reliever.  Then one more good starter, and one more good reliever, on top of what they already have.
 
Doing so within the luxury tax cap probably requires clearing some money from the offensive side of the ledger, on top of the deadweight contracts to Victorino and Napoli.  We should be talking about the market for Sandoval, who with the emergence of Holt, really is a luxury they neither need, nor can afford.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
 
Doing so within the luxury tax cap probably requires clearing some money from the offensive side of the ledger, on top of the deadweight contracts to Victorino and Napoli.  We should be talking about the market for Sandoval, who with the emergence of Holt, really is a luxury they neither need, nor can afford.

What could they get for Sandoval? Anyone that knows how to get to Fangraphs and then click on 3B will see that Sandoval is dead last in WAR among all qualified third basemen (22), and it's a negative WAR. Sure, a good part of it is his defense, but he is a below average fielder when he gets this heavy, so the dWAR fits as far as I'm concerned. His baserunning, oy. So, what could they get for him? This could be one of the worst Red Sox signings in recent memory. Maybe if he goes on a diet during the offseason, like he did with the Giants a couple of times, he could come out next year better. Or, he could come out not hitting, which has also happened at lower weights for him. What a mess.

 

[Plympton91]

What could they get for Sandoval? Anyone that knows how to get to Fangraphs and then click on 3B will see that Sandoval is dead last in WAR among all qualified third basemen (22), and it's a negative WAR. Sure, a good part of it is his defense, but he is a below average fielder when he gets this heavy, so the dWAR fits as far as I'm concerned. His baserunning, oy. So, what could they get for him? This could be one of the worst Red Sox signings in recent memory. Maybe if he goes on a diet during the offseason, like he did with the Giants a couple of times, he could come out next year better. Or, he could come out not hitting, which has also happened at lower weights for him. What a mess.

 
Yeah, I don't really care what they'd get other than salary relief, but the case you make really does sound horrible even for that minimal prospect.   I never understood the attraction to this guy, especially when they had Hanley Ramirez also apparently all but begging to play for them.  Put Ramirez at 3B, worst case scenario was a platoon of Nava and Craig in LF (which would have been bad to this point for sure), and let Sandoval eat his way out of the game somewhere else.

 

[dcmissle]

This weekend should end any thoughts of being buyers.  Not because they lost 2 of 3, but how they did it.
 
Buchholz is out at least 2 weeks, but given the average for pitchers with similar injuries it looks like it could be more like 4 to 6.  Miley once again proved that he's nothing more than a 5th starter.  Yet, because the bullpen isn't any good either, Miley was left in too long, Layne proved the mediocrity he is, and the game got out of hand.  Then again proving the lack of depth in the bullpen, Farrell tried to rid a "hot hand" too far and Ogando tired and gave up any hope of a comeback.
 
This team needs at least half a new pitching staff to meaningfully compete even against the weak AL East.  This is not the year.  Make plans to have that pitching staff in 2016.   It requires a plan to acquire an ace level starting pitcher, and an ace level reliever.  Then one more good starter, and one more good reliever, on top of what they already have.
 
Doing so within the luxury tax cap probably requires clearing some money from the offensive side of the ledger, on top of the deadweight contracts to Victorino and Napoli.  We should be talking about the market for Sandoval, who with the emergence of Holt, really is a luxury they neither need, nor can afford.

The season really punctures one of the recurring myths of the offseason -- don't worry too much if Miley, Porcello, et al are inadequate: it's a long season, and we'll just add. If this was posted once, it was posted dozens of times.

It's not that easy. As you note, there is more than one hole to fill. Even if there weren't, it's shaping up as a seller's market. Many teams will be chasing Cueto. Philly is not ruing that it failed to ship Hamels to us for what WE deemed to be reasonable prices.