Ideal Celtics Playoff Seed

Ideal Celtics Playoff Seed

  • #3

    Votes: 41 71.9%
  • #4 (vs Phil)

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • #5 (vs Ind)

    Votes: 11 19.3%

  • Total voters
    57

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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16 games left for the Celtics, 17 for Ind and Philly.

It looks like the #1 seed in the East will be the Bucks, #2 will be Toronto, 3-5 are a tight race between Bos/Ind/Phi and 6-8 are a tight race between Det/Bkn/Mia/Orl.

With that in mind, where is the ideal slot for the Celtics to end up? Given everyone would pick #4 over #5, I added in the opponent to see if that mattered. I'd assume most would rather play Indiana over Philly in the first round.

The team I fear the most in the East is Toronto. So my dream scenario would be to end up 4th with Philly 3rd and Ind 5th. Given that's not a choice, I'll pick #5 vs. Ind. I would take a path to the finals of Ind -> Mil -> Phil/Tor over BKN->Tor->Mil.

Discuss.
 

chilidawg

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Jan 22, 2015
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Both Toronto and Milwaukee are playing well and will be tough on the road, I'm not sure that there's enough difference there to worry about it. I'd like to see us get the 3 because it would mean we're going into the post season with some momentum. Brooklyn/Miami should be a much easier first round than Indy or Philly.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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I'd much rather the Celtics get the easier first round matchup, which means the 3 seed. A first round series against Philly or Indy could be a slog and, IMO, would make it harder for them to win one of the two opening games in Toronto (a must if they are to advance past the Raptors).
 

DrewDawg

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If the Celtics are playing well heading into the playoffs then generally speaking, I'll take whatever comes. We get the 3 seed that would be best, but if we can't get there I want 4/5 against Indy.
 

lovegtm

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Obviously we'd all like the 3 seed and Brooklyn. Failing that, the question is Indy or Philly?

Indy is a no-brainer imo. I've been really impressed with how they've held things together without Oladipo, but the playoffs are a different animal. The Celtics, when they're locked in on defense, tend to look great against teams without elite offensive threats, simply because they can smother so many actions with length, switching, and communication.

Philly is obviously very, very beatable, but it just seems like it would be more of a slog, with the potential to beat up Baynes and Horford a lot going into the 2nd round.
 

Red Averages

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Obviously we'd all like the 3 seed and Brooklyn. Failing that, the question is Indy or Philly?

Indy is a no-brainer imo. I've been really impressed with how they've held things together without Oladipo, but the playoffs are a different animal. The Celtics, when they're locked in on defense, tend to look great against teams without elite offensive threats, simply because they can smother so many actions with length, switching, and communication.

Philly is obviously very, very beatable, but it just seems like it would be more of a slog, with the potential to beat up Baynes and Horford a lot going into the 2nd round.
I don't think it is that obvious. You likely beat Brooklyn or Indy without too much effort, so would you rather play Tor and then Mil? I'd prefer Mil in the 2nd round over Toronto. Either way we won't have home court for it.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Not a poll choice, but if I can't have 3, I'd do 4 vs. IND. Yes, they have held it together but look at their schedule since February 2 (after the 4 game losing streak following Oladipo's injury):

@MIA
@NOP
LAL
LAC
CLE
CHA
MIL (loss)
NOP
@WAS
@DET (loss)
@DAL (loss)
MIN
ORL (loss)
CHI

Their next 11 games are rough. We will know a lot more about IND after these games; I wouldn't be surprised if they go 3-8 or even worse. Here is the schedule:

@MIL
@PHI
NYK
OKC
@DEN
@POR
@LAC
@GSW
DEN
@OKC
@BOS

P.S. In games 77-81, IND plays ORL, DET, @DET, BOS, and BRK. Without doing a dive into the schedules, my quick glance suggests that DET has a more favorable schedule so I wouldn't be surprised if the DET/BRK games were going to decide the 5th spot.
 

RedOctober3829

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3 seed for sure. It gets them Brooklyn in the 1st round and holds off the Bucks until the conference finals. Who knows, it could happen where Philly knocks off the Bucks in the 2nd round and then the Celtics would have HCA if they beat Toronto.
 

chilidawg

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I don't think it is that obvious. You likely beat Brooklyn or Indy without too much effort, so would you rather play Tor and then Mil? I'd prefer Mil in the 2nd round over Toronto. Either way we won't have home court for it.
But odds are you've got to beat both the Bucks and Raptors to get to the finals. Doesn't matter much to me which order that comes in.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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3 seed for sure. It gets them Brooklyn in the 1st round and holds off the Bucks until the conference finals. Who knows, it could happen where Philly knocks off the Bucks in the 2nd round and then the Celtics would have HCA if they beat Toronto.
According to this website that discusses playoff seeding odds (presumably on SOS), it is much more likely that DET will be at 6 than BRK.

According to the websites I looked at, BRK has the toughest remaining SOS of the playoff contenders. BRef has IND at second toughest. And I think that whatever algorithm the site is being thrown off by IND beating bad to mediocre teams - they site gives IND a 37% chance of staying in the 3rd seed; given that BOS and PHI have way easier remaining schedules, I think that is super high.
 

RedOctober3829

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According to this website that discusses playoff seeding odds (presumably on SOS), it is much more likely that DET will be at 6 than BRK.

According to the websites I looked at, BRK has the toughest remaining SOS of the playoff contenders. BRef has IND at second toughest. And I think that whatever algorithm the site is being thrown off by IND beating bad to mediocre teams - they site gives IND a 37% chance of staying in the 3rd seed; given that BOS and PHI have way easier remaining schedules, I think that is super high.
Whether it's Brooklyn or Detroit, I'd much rather face one of them than one of Indiana or Philly in the 1st round. Yes we know that they've done well vs. Philly but I'll take playing the lesser talented team every time.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Whether it's Brooklyn or Detroit, I'd much rather face one of them than one of Indiana or Philly in the 1st round. Yes we know that they've done well vs. Philly but I'll take playing the lesser talented team every time.
I think you are giving IND without VO too much credit but as I said above, we'll know a lot more about them in the next 11 games.
 

DrewDawg

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I don't think it is that obvious. You likely beat Brooklyn or Indy without too much effort, so would you rather play Tor and then Mil? I'd prefer Mil in the 2nd round over Toronto. Either way we won't have home court for it.
I'm not sure the order of Mil and Tor matters since we'll likely have to play both of them to get where we want.


Everyone thought IND would drop off after Oladipo got hurt as well.
True, but the playoffs are different.
 

DrewDawg

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Also, don't forget in the postseason we get PLAYOFF AL HORFORD and he's a whole different beast.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Everyone thought IND would drop off after Oladipo got hurt as well.
They did. They are 10-8 since VO went down. It just looks better because they went 0-4 in the first 4 games but then 10-4 in the next 14.

In those 10 wins, they played: @MIA; @NOP; LAL; LAC; CLE; CHA; NOP; WAS; MIN; and CHI. Don't have the time to see what teams records were at the time of the game, but as it stands now, only 1 of those teams has a winning record. Granted 10-0 is a good result against these teams but certainly not out of the ordinary.

In their 8 losses, they played @MEM; GSW; @WAS; @ORL; @WAS; @DET; @DAL; and ORL. That contains two teams with winning records.

So basically, they are 1-1 at home vs teams with winning records; 8-1 vs teams that don't; 0-1 on the road against teams with winning records and 2-5 on the road with teams that don't have winning records.

They have remained in the 3 seed since (as we know) the Cs didn't play well over the same time (8 losses themselves) nor did PHI (7 losses but to the following teams: @SAC (after beating GSW); TOR; BOS; POR; GSW; and (inexplicably) CHI).
 

DrewDawg

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Sixers get Rockets and Pacers the next few nights, then after the Cavs they get Kings and Bucks, so if Celtics can keep this going there's a chance to make up some ground.

Pacers get Nuggets twice, Bucks, Blazers beyond that Sixers matchup, plus they still go to Golden State.

Just keep winning.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Sixers get Rockets and Pacers the next few nights, then after the Cavs they get Kings and Bucks, so if Celtics can keep this going there's a chance to make up some ground.

Pacers get Nuggets twice, Bucks, Blazers beyond that Sixers matchup, plus they still go to Golden State.

Just keep winning.
As I posted above (sorry to make you have to read my posts!), IND's next 8 road games are: @MIL, @PHI, @DEN, @POR, @LAC, @GSW, @OKC, and @BOS.

Would anyone be surprised if they went 1-7 in these games?
 

DrewDawg

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As I posted above (sorry to make you have to read my posts!), IND's next 8 road games are: @MIL, @PHI, @DEN, @POR, @LAC, @GSW, @OKC, and @BOS.

Would anyone be surprised if they went 1-7 in these games?
I must have had my reply window open, missed that. My bad!! (this is my Kyrie apology)
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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I'm not sure the order of Mil and Tor matters since we'll likely have to play both of them to get where we want.
Yes, but.......it seems the Celtics play better against MIL than TOR, and getting MIL first gives TOR another series to lose, get banged up, etc. before the Celtics get them.
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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And Philly is totally capable of beating Milwaukee or TOR.
Yeah, I think any of Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston and Philly can beat each other in a 7 game series. If it weren't for GS, there'd be like 10 teams who have a shot at the title.
 

RedOctober3829

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They did. They are 10-8 since VO went down. It just looks better because they went 0-4 in the first 4 games but then 10-4 in the next 14.

In those 10 wins, they played: @MIA; @NOP; LAL; LAC; CLE; CHA; NOP; WAS; MIN; and CHI. Don't have the time to see what teams records were at the time of the game, but as it stands now, only 1 of those teams has a winning record. Granted 10-0 is a good result against these teams but certainly not out of the ordinary.

In their 8 losses, they played @MEM; GSW; @WAS; @ORL; @WAS; @DET; @DAL; and ORL. That contains two teams with winning records.

So basically, they are 1-1 at home vs teams with winning records; 8-1 vs teams that don't; 0-1 on the road against teams with winning records and 2-5 on the road with teams that don't have winning records.

They have remained in the 3 seed since (as we know) the Cs didn't play well over the same time (8 losses themselves) nor did PHI (7 losses but to the following teams: @SAC (after beating GSW); TOR; BOS; POR; GSW; and (inexplicably) CHI).
So what you're saying is that they've won 10 of 14 so they are hot right now :) The prevailing thought was that they'd drop in seeding right away after Oladipo got hurt. They're not going to be as good without him, but they've done better than most thought. I certainly would rather play Brooklyn or Detroit rather than them.