I wanted to keep Jimmy over Brady... and LOCKED!!!!!

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Eddie Jurak

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Because it was never real.

Michael Hurley covers this in his piece about the revisionist history of the Matt Cassel trade.

Go and look at Jimmy's stats at the time versus Cassel's at the time stats.

Whole article is worth reading.
The flaw here is the assumption that teams trading for young QBs are paying for past production.
 

DJnVa

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So what was the motive for taking the substantially lower offer from San Francisco?
BB liked JG, didn't want him to wallow in misery in Cleveland, and if he goes to SF and does well those who write the history of the Patriots will most assuredly say that BB wanted JG
 

Mystic Merlin

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Not to mention Jimmy’s a FA and could easily end up back in the conference by choice.
Why would he leave SF? They're gonna pay him, they play in a great city, they have a promising coach and they're drowning in cap space and draft capital. And he's already something of a folk hero there.

I'll lay considerable odds.
 

EricFeczko

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According to this, the Browns were willing to swap the #4 pick in the draft + , for JG, but could not get a convo started with the Pats. Two days later JG was off to SF for what may be the 40th pick.

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2018/01/how_cleveland_browns_were_froz.html#incart_2box_sports


On November 4, I wrote about how the Browns had last talked to the Patriots on October 28.

They couldn't even start a conversation. They were told Garoppolo wasn't available.


I know that Brown was willing to part with Houston's first-round pick and other goodies. He would have been willing to help Belichick shop around for a backup quarterback to help the trade work
.
JG was obviously traded to SF because Brady wanted SF to win the SB again. TB is a 49ers fan after all.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/brady-reflects-on-growing-up-49ers-fan-then-beats-old-team-112016
 

InstaFace

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Thinking back on this nonsense, there's one thing I want to know: why would Jimmy G ever think it was a good idea to hire Brady's agent?

By so doing, he guaranteed that he could not communicate in confidence with the Pats. Seems like a needless conflict of interest.
Yeah, and why did Jay Payton sign here if he knew he wasn't going to start?!

(I think it's fair to wonder why he didn't switch agents at some point in the last 4 years, but maybe inertia is powerful in such relationships)
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Not to mention Jimmy’s a FA and could easily end up back in the conference by choice.
He can't do anything by choice for three years unless SF decides to not strap the franchise tag on him. They can certainly afford it under the cap and by that point, I'm not sure BB is all that concerned.

The simplest explanation is quite simply what someone upthread stated, that GMs are likely covering their own ass when their owners ask why they couldn't have/didn't get him. I don't buy for a second that CLE offered the Texans pick and were turned down. And also to factor in is that Hoyer was essentially part of the deal and the Pats needed a reliable backup.
 

JohnnyK

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My theory is the Browns were not offering the Texans pick. Not at that time anyway.
And even if they were, at the time of the trade deadline the Texans were also 3-4 coming off a close loss in Seattle but looking like a good pick to make a run with Watson at quarterback, only for him to tear his ACL just a few days later. Claiming the Patriots did not take the fourth pick in the draft for Jimmy like patspulpit did yesterday is revisionist history.
 

dcmissle

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Believe nothing that comes out of Cleveland. Or, as Ed said, believe as much as Polian’s remark that he had a first round grade on Brady but didn’t draft him because there was no QB need.
 

joe dokes

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The simplest explanation is quite simply what someone upthread stated, that GMs are likely covering their own ass when their owners ask why they couldn't have/didn't get him. I don't buy for a second that CLE offered the Texans pick and were turned down. And also to factor in is that Hoyer was essentially part of the deal and the Pats needed a reliable backup.
The Hoyer angle is something Kraft alluded to as well.

"But why'd they trade Brissett?"
Because BB doesnt think he's very good, or at least he is quite replaceable.

I dont think it's hyperbole to say that there hasn't been a situation quite like this in a really long time. If ever.

Craig Morton was a year younger (30/29) than Roger Staubach when the Cowboys got rid Morton in the middle of the following season.
 

Shelterdog

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Not to mention Jimmy’s a FA and could easily end up back in the conference by choice.
Jimmy and Yee were holding all the cards (one of the reasons the comp was so low)--Yee had likely made it known to both the Pats and to many other teams where his client would or would not sign after a trade.
 

Al Zarilla

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The Hoyer angle is something Kraft alluded to as well.

"But why'd they trade Brissett?"
Because BB doesnt think he's very good, or at least he is quite replaceable.

I dont think it's hyperbole to say that there hasn't been a situation quite like this in a really long time. If ever.

Craig Morton was a year younger (30/29) than Roger Staubach when the Cowboys got rid Morton in the middle of the following season.
Am I missing an angle here? Morton was pedestrian; Staubach went on to become a hall of fame quarterback.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The Hoyer angle is something Kraft alluded to as well.

"But why'd they trade Brissett?"
Because BB doesnt think he's very good, or at least he is quite replaceable.

I dont think it's hyperbole to say that there hasn't been a situation quite like this in a really long time. If ever.

Craig Morton was a year younger (30/29) than Roger Staubach when the Cowboys got rid Morton in the middle of the following season.
No doubt and I think that’s been under estimated by many. But I also don’t doubt they couldn’t have found a backup if the difference between return was the #4 pick and the #40 pick, or at the time could have best been valued as the #36(?) pick. I’m just not buying Cleveland actually offered that and they turned it down to get him out of the conference or BB fucked it up or didn’t check with any other teams.

Honestly, what was the market? I can buy he wouldn’t trade him to the Jets.

AFC, who else needs a QB that bad? Denver, nope. And Jacksonville. Ok.

NFC, Giants (who weren’t giving up a #1), Skins with the Cousins situation, Arizona and SF.

So, we are really talking about 4 teams, JAX, NYG, ARI and SF. Cousins will land with one of them or go back to DC. The rest of the league either has a high salary QB or a young prospect they just devoted draft capital to.

Quite frankly I think people are delusional if they think CLE actually offered the Texans pick and BB said ‘no, I really think a lot of him and don’t want him to rot there, plus I think if you got him you’d be a conference contender before I retire, so I’ll take a pick 40 slots lower, but thanks for the offer’.

I can’t even imagine that the Giants offered their top pick. I would bet my life that Cleveland didn’t offer #4. Arizona probably should have, but they need a deep rebuild. DC is completely dysfunctional. And then SF. Which also included a competent backup that could slide right in and they immediately signed to a three year deal.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Also, how does such a “power play” lead to Belichick taking less that optimal value? Kraft ordered him to trade Jimmy for less than market? Or Bill did it to sabotage his own team? You really think that happened?
Yeah, I posted the same thing in the other thread but it's applicable here too - even if you buy Kraft forced Belichick to trade JG, there is simply no way that he said "Trade JG, oh and by the way you must take the first offer! Don't even call around to other teams!" In fact, I think it's actually entirely the opposite - if, after the trade, Belichick called up Kraft and said "yeah, I could have got the #4 pick instead, but [I didn't want to trade him in the AFC/I want him to land in a good spot/whatever theory people have]" I would think Kraft would have flipped the fuck out.
 

JohnnyK

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the difference between return was the #4 pick and the #40 pick
Again, even if you believe the Cleveland offer to be true the Niners were 0-9 at the time of the trade whereas the Texans were 3-4 and still had a healthy Watson. So you're looking at a pick probably in the 20s, not the 4th, with the Niners pick most likely being 35 or higher.
 

H78

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Jimmy and Yee were holding all the cards (one of the reasons the comp was so low)--Yee had likely made it known to both the Pats and to many other teams where his client would or would not sign after a trade.
On its face, that seems like a really big assumption. Any links of similar activity with other players?
 

H78

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He can't do anything by choice for three years unless SF decides to not strap the franchise tag on him. They can certainly afford it under the cap and by that point, I'm not sure BB is all that concerned.

The simplest explanation is quite simply what someone upthread stated, that GMs are likely covering their own ass when their owners ask why they couldn't have/didn't get him. I don't buy for a second that CLE offered the Texans pick and were turned down. And also to factor in is that Hoyer was essentially part of the deal and the Pats needed a reliable backup.
That’s assuming they want to tag him as opposed to locking up, say, Cousins long-term if Jimmy plays hardball.

The risk of him coming right back to the AFC, any way you cut it, is still there. We can make assumptions as to why it may not happen, but ultimately money talks.
 

dcmissle

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That’s assuming they want to tag him as opposed to locking up, say, Cousins long-term if Jimmy plays hardball.

The risk of him coming right back to the AFC, any way you cut it, is still there. We can make assumptions as to why it may not happen, but ultimately money talks.
He’ll get paid. My guess is at pretty high AAV and decent guarantees over 3 years, which would hedge risk for both sides.

Not everyone has Cousins’ comfort level to take things year to year at an astronomical franchise tag level. And I think the Redskins’ stupidity with Cousins will be replicated no time soon.

But make no mistake about this. The 49ers can absolutely positively guarantee that JG plays for them and no one else. For three years at least.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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That’s assuming they want to tag him as opposed to locking up, say, Cousins long-term if Jimmy plays hardball.

The risk of him coming right back to the AFC, any way you cut it, is still there. We can make assumptions as to why it may not happen, but ultimately money talks.
But you’re assuming they spent a high level second round pick on someone they don’t want to keep after he’s played well?

It’s really kind of simple.

If he’s worth worrying about coming back to the conference, that means he’s good enough that SF will franchise him. If he’s not that good, then who cares where he plays? They have an insane amount of cap space they need to use either way. It’s really not very complicated with today’s nfl.

Simple fact is, no, he’s not free to go wherever he wants next year because of the cba. And if they let him go, then who gives a shit, it means they aren’t buying the hype. It’s a long bridge to get to ‘I wanted him out of the conference because I’m worried about competing with him, so I took way less....’. And it’s just simply incorrect to say he can go wherever he wants next year - there might be a non zero percentage they let him go but it’s very small.
 

tims4wins

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Yes, technically, JG could end up back in the AFC... but if that happens, think about how bad the Niners look in all of this, not the Pats. They'll have given up the 40th pick for 5 meaningless games.
 

EricFeczko

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The flaw here is the assumption that teams trading for young QBs are paying for past production.
From the article:

And while we’re all living in the wake of the Jimmy G Phenomenon that was the end of the 2017 season, the fact is the kid threw six [sic, it's seven total, but six were in the last five games] touchdowns and five interceptions in his five starts this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Josh McCown and Tyrod Taylor all had better TD-to-INT ratios this year. In the past, we’ve seen better flashes from the likes of Nick Foles, Matt Flynn, Tim Tebow, Brock Osweiler, Robert Griffin, Derek Anderson and Cassel. None of them went on to have great careers. Most of them didn’t even have good careers. Most of them also got paid a lot of money, too.
Not noted above is the 2.8% interception rate on 178 attempts. This would place him around Dak Prescott's level. JG also benefited from good performance by skillset players (although good touch/defense reading may help with this). Per completion, JG gained 7.1 yards in the air (10th in the league) and 13 total (1st in the league). I wish the nfl website actually measured average air yards gained per attempt (which would provide a comparable statistic to the yards/attempt), but this is an above average increase.

In any case, I'm not sure that is the flaw here. While Jimmy G has certainly performed like a top ranked QB this year. His performance comes with some red flags, which cloud his future production.
 

Eddie Jurak

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From the article:

Not noted above is the 2.8% interception rate on 178 attempts. This would place him around Dak Prescott's level. JG also benefited from good performance by skillset players (although good touch/defense reading may help with this). Per completion, JG gained 7.1 yards in the air (10th in the league) and 13 total (1st in the league). I wish the nfl website actually measured average air yards gained per attempt (which would provide a comparable statistic to the yards/attempt), but this is an above average increase.

In any case, I'm not sure that is the flaw here. While Jimmy G has certainly performed like a top ranked QB this year. His performance comes with some red flags, which cloud his future production.
I don't see much value in a context-free evaluation of stats. Jimmy G putting up numbers like this on with a healthy Patriots offense would red flags that him doing it a few weeks after being dealt to a crap team with different coaches, personnel, and systems simply does not. (Also, if you are going to approach the numbers this naively, then you must be gravely concerned about Brady's post-trade slippage, no?)
 

heavyde050

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I don't see much value in a context-free evaluation of stats. Jimmy G putting up numbers like this on with a healthy Patriots offense would red flags that him doing it a few weeks after being dealt to a crap team with different coaches, personnel, and systems simply does not. (Also, if you are going to approach the numbers this naively, then you must be gravely concerned about Brady's post-trade slippage, no?)
To be fair, even with his "post-trade slippage", Brady's interception rate was only 1.4%. He hasn't had an interception rate over 2.8% since 2004 when he had a 3.0% rate.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
 

EricFeczko

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I don't see much value in a context-free evaluation of stats. Jimmy G putting up numbers like this on with a healthy Patriots offense would red flags that him doing it a few weeks after being dealt to a crap team with different coaches, personnel, and systems simply does not. (Also, if you are going to approach the numbers this naively, then you must be gravely concerned about Brady's post-trade slippage, no?)
I think we are talking past each other due to a different interpretation of the article. Your stated flaw is that the article assumes teams are paying for past production. However, I interpreted the article's thesis to mean JG's future production is uncertain, and therefore assuming his future production will form a great career is flawed. I agree: the numbers are themselves unsustainable and unreliable. Few QBs maintain a career 7.62 ANYPA just as few QBs maintain a career INT rate of 2.8 percent. Therefore, pre-saging JG as the next coming of anything is premature.
 

Eddie Jurak

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To be fair, even with his "post-trade slippage", Brady's interception rate was only 1.4%. He hasn't had an interception rate over 2.8% since 2004 when he had a 3.0% rate.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
During the last 6 weeks, Brady completed only 62% of his passes, threw for under 240 years per game, and had an interception rate of 3.0%. (During the first 10 weeks, Brady completed 69% of his passes, averaged over 300 years per game, and had an interception rate of 0.5% - the same rate he had during the previous season). For a 40 year old quarterback, that could be viewed as the beginning of the end. Or it could be viewed in the context of Brady playing without a lot of key skill position guys during the last 6 weeks of the season.

I think we are talking past each other due to a different interpretation of the article. Your stated flaw is that the article assumes teams are paying for past production. However, I interpreted the article's thesis to mean JG's future production is uncertain, and therefore assuming his future production will form a great career is flawed. I agree: the numbers are themselves unsustainable and unreliable. Few QBs maintain a career 7.62 ANYPA just as few QBs maintain a career INT rate of 2.8 percent. Therefore, pre-saging JG as the next coming of anything is premature.
I think I was originally responding to the argument that Matt Cassel had better trade value after 2008 than JG did when he was dealt, because Cassel, unlike JG, had a full season as a starting QB under his belt. While I agree that JG isn't the next coming of anything, I think it is all but certain that he will outpace Matt Cassel. Just because NFL game experience is an important consderation doesn't mean nothing else matters.
 

EricFeczko

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During the last 6 weeks, Brady completed only 62% of his passes, threw for under 240 years per game, and had an interception rate of 3.0%. (During the first 10 weeks, Brady completed 69% of his passes, averaged over 300 years per game, and had an interception rate of 0.5% - the same rate he had during the previous season). For a 40 year old quarterback, that could be viewed as the beginning of the end. Or it could be viewed in the context of Brady playing without a lot of key skill position guys during the last 6 weeks of the season.

I think I was originally responding to the argument that Matt Cassel had better trade value after 2008 than JG did when he was dealt, because Cassel, unlike JG, had a full season as a starting QB under his belt. While I agree that JG isn't the next coming of anything, I think it is all but certain that he will outpace Matt Cassel. Just because NFL game experience is an important consderation doesn't mean nothing else matters.
I think we are effectively on the same page here. I completely agree with your first paragraph; five games is an insufficient time to evaluate a QB (might need 3 seasons worth of data before one can feel confident).
On pedigree alone, there's a wide gap between Cassel and JG. Personally, I thought that part of the article was either poor evidence or poorly written. I had interpreted the argument in the context that ~200 PA comparisons mean jack shit. In rereading, I can see how the author may have intended a different argument.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think we are effectively on the same page here. I completely agree with your first paragraph; five games is an insufficient time to evaluate a QB (might need 3 seasons worth of data before one can feel confident).
On pedigree alone, there's a wide gap between Cassel and JG. Personally, I thought that part of the article was either poor evidence or poorly written. I had interpreted the argument in the context that ~200 PA comparisons mean jack shit. In rereading, I can see how the author may have intended a different argument.
All makes sense.
 

bakahump

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Why SF? OK here is where it gets murky but I have a thought. People have said "because BB like Jimmy and wants him to succeed". People have said "Because BB likes the SF brain trust". People have said "BB hates Cleveland and wanted to screw them".

Here is my theory on why IN PART he choose SF. (along with the possibility that no one else simply offered as much).

There is one thing BB was pretty certain of this offseason. His assistant Coaches where MOST LIKELY going to leave.

Lets focus on Mcdaniels.

Cleveland (The De jure Leader in getting Jimmy G) was in the midst of going 0-16. I think most people would have expected a coach who goes 0-16 to be fired. So in my theory world, IF Hue Jackson is fired (he was amazingly kept on even though he has ONE win in 2 years) after game 16 or even earlier (with an Interim HC finishing the season). Who would be on the Short list of Candidates?

Mcdaniels?

So lets say that BB Has to opportunity to trade Jimmy G to Cleveland. He also knows that odds are decent that McDaniels could end up in Cleveland.

If BB knows that Jimmy G has the talent to be a top 10 QB (say #7) over the next 5 years.

And BB knows that Josh McDaniels has the ability to be a top 10 Coach.

Now you would be setting up a Team in your conference with a "Top 10 QB and a Top 10 HC" for the next 5 years. Again if we assume that "Supply and Demand" put Jimmy G worth around a #25 Pick, BB would allow this to happen for a swing of @ 9 Picks. Again not even considering the longer negotiating time and Insurance arguments.


So what do we know about SF? They just spent a lot of money last year for the "Best Assistant Coach" on the Market. I think its fair to say that Shanahans Job was probably safe even if BB, Tom Landry, Curly Lambeau, Vince Lombardi and George Halas come onto the coaching Market this year. And quite possibly for next year as well.

So Amongst other things, Trading Jimmy G to SF keeps him away from Mcdaniels for at least the next 2 years.

One last thing that seems to lend some credence to this is that the other well known teams with Vacancies (Lions, Giants, Bears, Tennessee, Indy) All have QBs in place in one way or another. So losing McDaniels to any of them (minus Cleveland) would basically preclude a reunion with Jimmy G.


Not saying it’s the end all be all reason. But it might have had some weight.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Interesting in theory, but given we know that BB is helping out and giving advice - and further that McDaniels is picky about his next stop, likely because he knows its his last chance, but we know he turned down better offers than Cleveland last year - I think you're thinking too hard on this. Cleveland didn't make a better offer. The rest is spin.
 

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