It's crazy that the odds are that high, but I agree that putting them lower would be inaccurate. He is preternaturally good at floor-mapping and quick decision making.
I Believe in Time Lord...Why Can't You?
- Thread starter Bernie Carbohydrate
- Start date
Here's a wild prediction. TL will develop his shot to the point where his mid-range jumper is the equivalent of Theis's. He's smart, athletic and hard working. He has great hands. He can develop a shot. At that point, he spread the floor a bit more for his teammates and become that much more valuable.
He has an extremely small sample size of 56 jumpers taken in his career, but TL has hit 40% of them, slightly higher than Bam’s percentage on jumpers.
I don’t see why he can’t be an effective shooter as his game develops. TL needs a summer working with Drew Hanlen, who has done a great job with bigs like Embiid and Meyers Leonard (and Tatum and Semi)
Don't forget, Romeo was drafted in the same draft and I think we can all agree that he was a high ceiling / low floor type of gamble.
If TL and Romeo both pop, hopefully we can won't have a "can Danny draft" thread every six months.
Don't get me wrong as I'm extremely happy for it, but Why is Williams so effective on those lob passes? Seems like there are a lot of 6'8" guys who can jump with halfway decent hands that should be able to do the same thing. Is it just a knack for being in the right position?
I think timing and body control are skills and he is adding elite athleticism to it. Not many guys can combine all 3. Running and jumping is much harder when you have to worry about catching the ball, dodging defenders, finishing, and then landing.
It's because he's not functionally 6-8. His standing reach is an inch shorter than Embiid's.
The first thought you should have when it seems like someone plays way bigger or smaller than his listed height is "what's his wingspan/standing reach?"
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In addition to other posts, he's a super quick leaper that doesn't give the defense a lot of room for error. Plus he has great athleticism/touch so that he can still covert passes that aren't perfect - and we know the Cs throw several of these a game.
They used to get a couple of lobs to Theis in games where things were going well but that's all. They can get double this with TL. Four points makes a huge difference in a season that has seen the Cs play in - and lose - a lot of clutch games. And that doesn't even take into consideration 2 super important factors. (i) On PnRs, other bigs have to be super aware of rolling TL, leaving ballhandler with more room. EF seems to understand this really well. (ii) The extra offensive possessions generated by TL's ORbs really impacts the game too.
Tuesday will be interesting. PHI is going to go right at him to try to get him in foul trouble. Assuming TT is still out, this will be a true test of TL's growth.
Being able to reach above the square might have something to do with his lob effectiveness. Quick jumper, crazy long arms, great hands, limber body that can twist and contort.
A few games ago, TL high fived Tacko at the bench during warm-ups and he just needed to stand on his tip-toes for their hands to meet.
I nearly always lurk and enjoy reading the posts, but I thought I would chime in here since I am fascinated by TL's potential going forward and because I hadn't seen one particular facet of his blocking skills noted in the discussion (if it has been and I missed it, all apologies). Specifically, it is the ability of TL not to just block the shot, but to do so in a way that often results in a possession and productive play for his team. He tends not to just swat the ball out of bounds very often, but instead more often tips it either to himself or to a teammate. He also has the body control ability and focus to stay with the ball after the block to gain possession. I am a bit too young to have seen Russell play, but those who did describe Russell's blocking in these terms--it is also evident in the film of Celtics games from that era. It seems to be a comparatively rare skill, and I've heard Russell talk about this in several interviews over the years. I know that TL-Russell comparisons at this stage are reckless and unwarranted, not least because they are players from very different eras, but some of the similarities are striking. TL seems to effect the entirety of the game much like Russell did.
Too bad Tacko sucks because he has a 10'2 standing reach and a 8'4 wingspan. He must have had his arms lowered for TL to high five him. He's got 8 inches in standing reach.
An 8'4 wingspan. What?
I’ve thought the same thing regarding TL’s touch on blocks. I’d guess it goes hand in hand with his ability to finish lobs that are off and require a mid-action tweak. He’s able to exert a level of control while max efforting that seems unusual.
I assume they try to coach this, as it’s been conventional wisdom for a while now that demonstratively swatting balls, while emotionally satisfying, isn’t extremely helpful.
However, in TL’s cases I think at least some of this is due to the fact that he’s blocking balls he has no business getting to. So he’s only getting a fingertip on them, and it’s amazing. A disproportionately large percentage of his blocks seem to be of that kind, based on my non-quantitative observation.
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Option 3: TL goes to the Al Horford 3-point set shot elementary school this offseason.
Option 1: TL has good FT mechanics, a soft release and good rotation......he’s also made leaps in FT% since the 47% of his senior season at A&M. I don’t see any reason why he can’t return next year with this shot in his repertoire to keep defenses honest. Once he masters this the next step is to the 3-point line.......or some simply forego the mid-range altogether and work to develop the 3.
Option 2: For the same reasons that TL is not a good low post defender against bigger and skilled offensive 5’s I don’t expect a back to the basket game to be much of a part of his game moving forward except in switches on a mismatch.
Bill Russell always emphasized the block plus tip as the ultimate defensive play.
TimeLord seems to use the backboard a lot on his blocks as well, tending to block the shots into the backboard where it can be corralled by him or a teammate, instead of out of bounds or over the offensive players head. His body control when he's off the ground is truly unbelievable.
His ~12 foot jumpshot seems like money. I’d think he can easily stretch that out a bit. I don’t think he needs to be a 3 pt threat just yet, but obviously if he can extend his range with time that’d be great.
No way I want TL to be shooting 3Ps, not with this team. I want him doing exactly what he's doing now - keep the ball moving once he touches it. If the other team's big isn't going to guard him out there, that just means someone's going to get a wide-open 3P when he comes off a TL pick or that TL has wide open passing lanes. That's the best version of TL IMO.
This. It's nice to add shots from a few spots over the years, but in general, people really overrate the value of shooting for athletic bigs who can stretch vertically (and pass!).
I agree. If I’m the defense I want TL taking mid-range jumpers all night. He really doesn’t even need to be a 3-pt threat for spacing as he can act in a similar manner as Gobert for Utah. Both players, when on the baseline, occupy a defender who cannot cut off dribble drives in the lane due to the lob threat. It’s a unique situation when a big doesn’t need to be outside the arc to create spacing.
Nice game for Rob last night:
16pts 8-11 7rebs 4assts 26mins 2PF
Nurkic 8pts / Kanter 9pts
Defensively not leaping at every head fake. Making screens for Tatum, aggressively rolling to the rim & opening up the lane for JT/JB
9-2 as a starter, settling into the starting rotation.
16pts 8-11 7rebs 4assts 26mins 2PF
Nurkic 8pts / Kanter 9pts
Defensively not leaping at every head fake. Making screens for Tatum, aggressively rolling to the rim & opening up the lane for JT/JB
9-2 as a starter, settling into the starting rotation.
No, because they overvalue all big men. The ORtg and DRtg numbers on NBA.com are far better.
BRef's numbers make TimeLord, Capela, Mitchell Robinson etc look like the best NBA players in the world by far.
those bbref Rtgs are garbage.
He's been very good as a starter though, 117.6 ORtg, 110 Drtg.
I would caution against per/36 though, he's been much less effective when he plays over 22-25 MPG. TL is a minutes limited player whether as a starter or off the bench. I think he's a good fit for starting, and letting TT do work against bench players, and switching against certain matchups (Embiid for example).
This was as comfortable as I’ve ever seen TL play. All instinctual, ahead of the play and in flow. Granted, not much resistance with the Portland D but he’s beginning to understand how to execute the PNR.
I said this on draft night a few years ago that he was going to take some time due to the double low-post offense that Billy Kennedy ran with TL/Tyler Davis and the clog the paint zone defense A&M used. He had two years in college that didn’t do anything to prepare him for the NBA game. The next step is to figure out how to compete against those 5’s who he matches up poorly against to get to passable vs them.
Those numbers are as a starter in 25.2 mpg. They are just as good as his per 36 numbers when he was playing 15 minutes. I'm sure his production will drop off if he plays 36, but it hasn't dropped off yet from 15 to 25.
Whether his effectiveness has or not, I dunno. HIs per 36 haven't tho.
edit: I think the bigger question is if he can play longer than 25 minutes a game.
It is fairly simple. He is longer and jumps higher and more quickly than almost anybody ever, and that's not an exaggeration. When he was drafted there was talk he may be able to touch higher than anyone alive, so high in fact he had people looking at old footage of Wilt. I mentioned the G league coach I was lucky enough to speak with saying TL was considered one of the greatest athlete prospects ever, and compared him to Usain Bolt in terms of being pure fast twitch freak among fast twitchiest freakiest athletes on the world.
I may have downplayed this coach's enthusiasm about TL. When drafted there was no evidence he had much understanding of the game due to his limited role. But, was this because such a long, powerful body is extremely hard to control as young kid, and he was just coming into his ability. But, also his limited role may be only a rough understanding of the game. While the idea he is some type of Bird/Walton passing phenom in the making, seems premature at best, this coach said it was clear he is more than just an athlete and is player, and a great pick.
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With regards to the bolded, I had to look it up. There have been some players rumoured to be able to touch the top of the backboard and I think only Dwight said that he could do it.
Apparently, Zion can do it with ease, which I had no idea. https://clutchpoints.com/nba-video-dukes-zion-williamson-touches-the-top-of-backboard-with-relative-ease/
The NBA has no shortage of amazing leapers. One thing you don't get with the combine numbers is the differentiation between different kinds of leaps that become important in an actual game - 1 vs 2 foot, jumping with or without time to load up, the second jump for which timing is just as important as vertical. One thing I find interesting about Timelord is how he seems to lead into most of his jumps (maybe mostly his alley oops) with fairly short steps - you almost never see him taking those big runway leaps and a big load up like you see in for example Tyson Chandler's alley oops (examples here).
I often used to hear about "take a dime off the backboard" as a legitimate claim about David Thompson, Bill Russell, Wilt, Elgin Baylor, etc. Amazing nobody ever filmed this feat.
They said it all the time about Dwight Howard. They wouldn't raise the rim for him at the dunk contest to 12 feet. .
I’ll be gathering data on this prior to the playoffs for First Score Prop bets that can have great value as we saw with the Lakers last year. If anyone has something prior to this that would be nice too.
Good memory
https://www.espn.com/nba/allstar2008/news/story?id=3243169
The thing is an inch in these instances is a lot. If a rim is an inch low guy who can almost dunk on a ten foot rim can blast it. So a guy getting two or three inches higher than other guys is a world above them and it often got exaggerated. How quickly guys lift off is oten more important than how high. Elgin and David Thompson are guys who don't seem to be getting high by today's standards but they got off the floor sooner than everyone else.
This is guy touching 13 feet on string above the floor. This is a running jump.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr1-c8kg0DE
Here was some claim is Wilt going to 13 feet, though it seems more like 12+, still ridiculous though.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF8yJ1J1W7Q
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I always associated that saying with the playground legends, like Connie Hawkins and Earl Manigault. But seeing David Thompson play I believe he could do it if there was a couple of lines up there. What a sad waste of amazing ability.
this is the actual record. Dunking on a 12 foot rim.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl75LRGA3LE
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl75LRGA3LE
I forget which thread we had this discussion in...think it was this one, but I came across this video this morning and I was reminded of our conversation about how much better NBA players - even bench warmers - are than even good players at other levels. Lots of White Mamba here so you know it's good.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93vF0WOX6w
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93vF0WOX6w
Being only 6'4" (or listed at that, who knows?) worked against Thompson in the NBA That said, even though it didn't end well, he had a pretty good pro career. 7 seasons, over 30 MPG/22ppg.
You're talking about a guy that was an absolute stud for his first 6 years as a pro and saw his career crater in his age 27 season, out of the league at 29. He's one of the top "what could have been" guys in league history.
Thompson may have been the most explosive, exciting and dominant (non-center division) college player I ever saw. He was an amazing college player. While he did get hurt there was only thing that fucked him up and kept from being an all-time great pro legend.
she don't lie, she don't lie, she don't lie....
I recall Darrell Griffith had great leaping ability as well (maybe not quite as good as Thompson).
Attached Athletic article about using Rob Williams off-ball guarding Aaron Gordon and using Grant on Jokic. A bunch of posters had alluded to Rob being the Celtics best help defender (esp at the rim)
The Grant hate is going to explode if he sees more PT for his defense and only puts up 3pts over 20mins
It's about time Smart and Grant lost their winter coats and played the D we saw from them last season.
https://theathletic.com/2512759/2021/04/11/celtics-going-in-the-right-direction-after-big-comeback-over-nikola-jokic-nuggets/
Over Jokic’s first 28 minutes, the Nuggets outscored the Celtics by 18 points. But when he returned in the fourth quarter, Boston dialed a different strategy. Instead of guarding him with a center, the Celtics gave Grant Williams the assignment on most possessions. Robert Williams, who normally covers an opposing big man, was asked to defend Aaron Gordon instead.
The decision paid off for the Celtics in several ways. Grant Williams defended without fouling, not always his strong suit, and forced Jokic into several tough looks. After struggling against Jokic in space, Robert Williams turned into a big plus while lurking on the weak side
“Honestly, it was just a matter of making it tough for him,” said Grant Williams. “I had no real plan or anything like that because he’s an MVP candidate. He’s that good for a reason. So I was just trying to take him out as rhythm, as well as make it easier for the guys around me because we were getting beat on back cuts and a lot of stuff at that time. So we had Rob behind to protect me at the rim if he got too deep and then he was able to contest shots and also get back to the shooters like Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter.”
The Grant hate is going to explode if he sees more PT for his defense and only puts up 3pts over 20mins
It's about time Smart and Grant lost their winter coats and played the D we saw from them last season.
https://theathletic.com/2512759/2021/04/11/celtics-going-in-the-right-direction-after-big-comeback-over-nikola-jokic-nuggets/
Over Jokic’s first 28 minutes, the Nuggets outscored the Celtics by 18 points. But when he returned in the fourth quarter, Boston dialed a different strategy. Instead of guarding him with a center, the Celtics gave Grant Williams the assignment on most possessions. Robert Williams, who normally covers an opposing big man, was asked to defend Aaron Gordon instead.
The decision paid off for the Celtics in several ways. Grant Williams defended without fouling, not always his strong suit, and forced Jokic into several tough looks. After struggling against Jokic in space, Robert Williams turned into a big plus while lurking on the weak side
“Honestly, it was just a matter of making it tough for him,” said Grant Williams. “I had no real plan or anything like that because he’s an MVP candidate. He’s that good for a reason. So I was just trying to take him out as rhythm, as well as make it easier for the guys around me because we were getting beat on back cuts and a lot of stuff at that time. So we had Rob behind to protect me at the rim if he got too deep and then he was able to contest shots and also get back to the shooters like Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter.”
If they were going to lose their winter coats, they would have done so already. Besides that, I don't think I'd want to see either one's summer body.
Their weight kinda is what it is and I don't think losing a few pounds will change much.
Their weight kinda is what it is and I don't think losing a few pounds will change much.