I Believe in Time Lord...Why Can't You?

NomarsFool

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Somebody having a couple of freak, very low probability injuries is just bad luck (e.g. Gordon Hayward). I think that is different than someone routinely missing games because of injury issues despite playing, still, fairly limited minutes. I've enjoyed the progress TL has made this year - but maybe he really is never going to be a big part of the rotation. Just seems like he can't stay on the court.
 

lovegtm

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Somebody having a couple of freak, very low probability injuries is just bad luck (e.g. Gordon Hayward). I think that is different than someone routinely missing games because of injury issues despite playing, still, fairly limited minutes. I've enjoyed the progress TL has made this year - but maybe he really is never going to be a big part of the rotation. Just seems like he can't stay on the court.
Agree that it’s a concern, but on the plus side, these aren’t typical “broken big man” issues. Guess we’ll see.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah if this were foot or back stuff, I'd be worried. Rolling an ankle is predictive on nothing really.
I do think the “always being hurt a bit” thing is likely predictive of something, even if it’s not Oden-style stuff.
 

NomarsFool

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We're 11 games into the season, and he already has had two different injuries that kept him out of the game, and a 3rd which forced him to leave the game.

I don't know how to look up last season, but he had a lot of injuries last year - again in pretty limited action. Maybe with continued training or something he'll be able to withstand injuries - no idea. The weird thing is with him, it often seems to be injuries in warm-ups, practice, shoot-around, etc.
 

DJnVa

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We're 11 games into the season, and he already has had two different injuries that kept him out of the game, and a 3rd which forced him to leave the game.
With the 4/5 players they can run out there at center, I think any time one has a hangnail they're going to get a night off if at all possible.
 

benhogan

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With the 4/5 players they can run out there at center, I think any time one has a hangnail they're going to get a night off if at all possible.
call it Celtic style load mgmt at the 5

What our 5s lack in talent/skills they have to make up for it with active/high energy minutes.
A hobbled/slower Theis, Kanter, TL are borderline useless
 

NomarsFool

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It was also the case last season. Maybe it stops now and he plays the rest of the season, but in his first 1.1 seasons of NBA ball it seems like he gets a lot of little injuries without playing a lot of minutes, and that is concerning to me.
 

bgo544

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I do think the “always being hurt a bit” thing is likely predictive of something, even if it’s not Oden-style stuff.
I always have thought of the "injury prone" label as something that is applied entirely post-hoc to a player who happens to have had several injuries, rather than something that is predictive. I imagine it is a complex mixture of both, though.
 

RetractableRoof

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Isn't it reasonable to expect a player playing on an invisible trampoline to occasionally experience sore knees and roll an ankle or two once in a while? I have to think some of this is "if it were the playoffs he'd play" stuff mixed with a lot of youth on a team with a coach who likes to mix and match anyway. Maybe you guys are more attuned to injury patterns though.
 

NomarsFool

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I always have thought of the "injury prone" label as something that is applied entirely post-hoc to a player who happens to have had several injuries, rather than something that is predictive. I imagine it is a complex mixture of both, though.
I'm sure there are some things that lead to players being more injured than others - style of play is of course one, but players surely differ in their flexibility, bone density, how they train themselves in the offseason and during the season, etc., etc. There's always fluke stuff, of course - I'd put bone breaks in that category for professional athletes most of the time. Of course, for older people having one break is HIGHLY predictive of having another one. Maybe it's predictive for younger people, too. No idea.
 

Imbricus

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I'm also in the "I think Rob Williams seems injury prone" camp. They aren't huge injuries, but they're starting to pile up. I'm worried too that when he goes up for one of those sky-high dunks he's going to land on someone and -- boom -- out for 2 to 3 weeks with a bad ankle/foot/knee.
 

lovegtm

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Liked his game against Phoenix, really in control overall. His play where he took Baynes off the bounce and then delivered a strike to the corner was ridiculous for a center. I guess being 6-8 with the arms of a 7-2 guy has its perks when it comes to quickness and body control.
 

Koufax

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That was an exciting play but there were a number of rookie mistakes as well. When I see those mistakes my thought isn't "Get him off the floor", it's "Get him more playing time" because he seems loaded with potential.
 

Eddie Jurak

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That was an exciting play but there were a number of rookie mistakes as well. When I see those mistakes my thought isn't "Get him off the floor", it's "Get him more playing time" because he seems loaded with potential.
Stevens was not happy with the stretch in which Williams took a mid range jumper, fouled someone, and then passed the ball out of bounds. He has established himself this year as (at this point) a rotation big and probable future starter, which is more than I expected him to achieve this quickly.
 

Jimbodandy

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Stevens was not happy with the stretch in which Williams took a mid range jumper, fouled someone, and then passed the ball out of bounds. He has established himself this year as (at this point) a rotation big and probable future starter, which is more than I expected him to achieve this quickly.
He seemed a little more confident handling the ball than usual. Normally he looks like he's trying to dispose of a bomb, when it swings to him. The downside to that was a couple of shitty turnovers, but I didn't have a problem with the 16 footer. Bigs take that shot every once in a while when the other guys are dragging balls on a possession. Theis, Baynes, even Poirier has this year.
 

Van Everyman

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I guess being 6-8 with the arms of a 7-2 guy has its perks when it comes to quickness and body control.
How tall is he actually? I’ve seen 6-8 but also 6-10. He plays more like the latter and the former is pretty damn small for a 5, wingspan notwithstanding. Was he still growing when he came out of college?
 

shoelace

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How tall is he actually? I’ve seen 6-8 but also 6-10. He plays more like the latter and the former is pretty damn small for a 5, wingspan notwithstanding. Was he still growing when he came out of college?
The Celtics listed him as 6' 8'' without shoes before the season.

View: https://twitter.com/BDCCeltics/status/1180927504967720963/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1180927504967720963&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boston.com%2Fsports%2Fboston-celtics%2F2019%2F10%2F06%2Fceltics-release-official-heights-and-weights-tacko-fall
 

lovegtm

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Stevens was not happy with the stretch in which Williams took a mid range jumper, fouled someone, and then passed the ball out of bounds. He has established himself this year as (at this point) a rotation big and probable future starter, which is more than I expected him to achieve this quickly.
Yes, but he had to be happy with RW hustling back down the floor and blocking the Tyler Johnson jump shot, which is a play not a lot of guys can make given how far behind the play he started.

I want to see him get all the minutes he can handle. I can hardly imagine how good this team will be if RW develops.
 

lovegtm

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Man, when TL is playing well, mistakes and all, he really brings an extra dimension to the team. It's like seeing into the future and wanting it to be here sooner.
 

Imbricus

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Man, when TL is playing well, mistakes and all, he really brings an extra dimension to the team.
This is really true. The guy can be very electric. He still tends to disappear sometimes, but I think the Celtics have to be absolutely thrilled at where he's at, considering he's a raw big man early in his second season. He's looking more like a lottery pick.
 

128

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This is really true. The guy can be very electric. He still tends to disappear sometimes, but I think the Celtics have to be absolutely thrilled at where he's at, considering he's a raw big man early in his second season. He's looking more like a lottery pick.
Two steps forward and one step back for Time Lord. That makes for some frustrating moments, but the signs of progress are undeniable.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Man, when TL is playing well, mistakes and all, he really brings an extra dimension to the team. It's like seeing into the future and wanting it to be here sooner.
But the flip side is that he is an atrocious defensive player. Yesterday, when he came in in the first half, the floodhates opened and Stevens had to get him out of there as Denver's lead doubled. He was much better in the second half, until Denver targeted him during cruch time to win it. He's still a guy who needs a limited role.

The Celtics' offensive rating with Williams on vs off is +10.9, which is quite good. But the Celtics opponent offensive rating with Williams on vs off is an abysmal (for the Celtics) +15.6.
 

Imbricus

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"Atrocious" feels harsh. He has trouble staying in front of people, and that's annoying, especially with his quickness. He's still prone to leaving his feet early. But his shot-blocking ability gets into other players' heads, and he can bother shots out near the arc. 538 has him fourth on the Celtics in defensive plus/minus (+1.3). They have Smart (+2.8), Theis and Brown in the top three, which seems about right (you might argue with Tatum at #5, but Edwards is near the bottom at -1.6, and Kanter is -0.6 and Poirier -1.2, and that all seems correct).
 

Eddie Jurak

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"Atrocious" feels harsh. He has trouble staying in front of people, and that's annoying, especially with his quickness. He's still prone to leaving his feet early. But his shot-blocking ability gets into other players' heads, and he can bother shots out near the arc. 538 has him fourth on the Celtics in defensive plus/minus (+1.3). They have Smart (+2.8), Theis and Brown in the top three, which seems about right (you might argue with Tatum at #5, but Edwards is near the bottom at -1.6, and Kanter is -0.6 and Poirier -1.2, and that all seems correct).
OK, he's terrific except for the minor fact that the Celtics as a team get abused by opposing offenses whenever he's on the floor.

Looking at ratings on Cleaning the Glass, which eliminates garbage time, the Celtics offense has been very good with Williams in (at +13.7 points per 100 possessions) he's the highest rated Celtics by this measure) and the Celtics defense has been very bad (-14.7 points per 100 possessions). He's the worst Celtic for opponents eFG and offensive rebounding rate. In the halfcourt offense, with Willaims, opponents offensive rebound rate is 10% higher (making Williams one of the worst bigs in the league by this metric) and opponents have a field day with putback attempts and points after a missed shot. His percentiles are mostly <10%, making him worse than at 90% of his fellow bigs on most of these metrics.

I think 'atrocious' is more than fair.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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OK, he's terrific except for the minor fact that the Celtics as a team get abused by opposing offenses whenever he's on the floor.

Looking at ratings on Cleaning the Glass, which eliminates garbage time, the Celtics offense has been very good with Williams in (at +13.7 points per 100 possessions) he's the highest rated Celtics by this measure) and the Celtics defense has been very bad (-14.7 points per 100 possessions). He's the worst Celtic for opponents eFG and offensive rebounding rate. In the halfcourt offense, with Willaims, opponents offensive rebound rate is 10% higher (making Williams one of the worst bigs in the league by this metric) and opponents have a field day with putback attempts and points after a missed shot. His percentiles are mostly <10%, making him worse than at 90% of his fellow bigs on most of these metrics.

I think 'atrocious' is more than fair.
I don’t know how many minutes are needed before you can get a meaningful sample size for on/off stats, but I’m pretty sure it’s orders of magnitude greater than 184.
 

benhogan

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OK, he's terrific except for the minor fact that the Celtics as a team get abused by opposing offenses whenever he's on the floor.

Looking at ratings on Cleaning the Glass, which eliminates garbage time, the Celtics offense has been very good with Williams in (at +13.7 points per 100 possessions) he's the highest rated Celtics by this measure) and the Celtics defense has been very bad (-14.7 points per 100 possessions). He's the worst Celtic for opponents eFG and offensive rebounding rate. In the halfcourt offense, with Willaims, opponents offensive rebound rate is 10% higher (making Williams one of the worst bigs in the league by this metric) and opponents have a field day with putback attempts and points after a missed shot. His percentiles are mostly <10%, making him worse than at 90% of his fellow bigs on most of these metrics.

I think 'atrocious' is more than fair.
(SSS aside on using advanced metrics at this point in the season)

Using the eye test, TL does have trouble gaining position down low against the bulkier centers. He's sleight, gets pushed around under the rim and uses his hops to grab boards instead of box/position, which leads to inconsistency. TL is another guy on this young team that is still learning/developing. *time/patience alert*

Brad is figuring out how to rotate his 5s, Theis/Kanter/TL is match-up dependent. Its the one position that Danny will look to add to in December IMO. The C's are set with wings/ ballhandlers and have the picks/young players to address the 5 if they want to add a more impressive center*

For a fringe/depth move: Poeltl, WCS, Looney and Noel are on my watch list.


*What would you give up for Mitchell Robinson? He has not been starting recently and for some reason has fallen into Coach Fiz doghouse. It's the Knicks, you never know.

https://empirewritesback.com/2019/11/22/new-york-knicks-examining-growth-mitchell-robinson/
 
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NomarsFool

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I like the fact that TL seems to be very active in deflecting passes this season. He seems to have quick hands, and obviously long arms, which leads to him having some impact on the defensive end besides blocking shots. I've also been impressed with his passing this season - which is not something I would have predicted.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I like the fact that TL seems to be very active in deflecting passes this season. He seems to have quick hands, and obviously long arms, which leads to him having some impact on the defensive end besides blocking shots. I've also been impressed with his passing this season - which is not something I would have predicted.
His STL% last year was 1.5%, it's 2.9% right now. His block % is way down though, from 12.5% to 7.8%. 7.8% is still amazing though.

His ast% last year was 3.3%. This year it's currently at 15.7%. I think last year he did show flashes of his vision and creativity but much more so this year. We focus on the shot blocking/deflections and defensive potential, but he could end up being a pretty special passer especially for someone with his skill set. I could see him averaging 4-5 assists a game in a few years. 10/10/5/2/2 player.

Hell, his per 36 right now is 11.0/11.7/3.9/3.1/2.2. points/reb/ast/block/stl.

Tatum's ast% is 11.9%, Brown's is 11.4%. Of course, Williams also has a 23.0% TO% while Tatum's is 8.5% and Brown's is 9.0%.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I should say. As bad as I think he is on defense right now, I don't think it's something he can't learn with time. I mostly like the way Brad has gotten him minutes and I don;t disagree that there is a legit talent there.
 

lovegtm

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I should say. As bad as I think he is on defense right now, I don't think it's something he can't learn with time. I mostly like the way Brad has gotten him minutes and I don;t disagree that there is a legit talent there.
Yeah, totally—that’s why I emphasized seeing the future and wanting it to be now already.

With young players it’s almost always necessary to analyze the components of their games, with an eye to the future, rather than focusing on more holistic stats that only capture current contribution to winning.
 

TripleOT

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(SSS aside on using advanced metrics at this point in the season)

*What would you give up for Mitchell Robinson? He has not been starting recently and for some reason has fallen into Coach Fiz doghouse. It's the Knicks, you never know.
The Celtics 2020 first round pick, and the Bucks 2020 first round pick.
 

lovegtm

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The Celtics 2020 first round pick, and the Bucks 2020 first round pick.
Is it obvious that he’ll be better than TL, especially wrt the offensive end? Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have MR as well, but you’re going to have to pay him after the rookie deal, and you really can’t pay 2 5s in the modern NBA. I’d way rather go after Baynes’ age 34 year for the time period when MR is cheap.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I should say. As bad as I think he is on defense right now, I don't think it's something he can't learn with time. I mostly like the way Brad has gotten him minutes and I don;t disagree that there is a legit talent there.
Not sure I agree with you as you how bad he’s been defensively, but definitely agree with him that he has a lot to work on, particularly when to stay down: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/11/robert-williams-ive-been-slacking-defensively-but-boston-celtics-are-being-encouraging.html?outputType=amp
 

benhogan

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Is it obvious that he’ll be better than TL, especially wrt the offensive end? Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have MR as well, but you’re going to have to pay him after the rookie deal, and you really can’t pay 2 5s in the modern NBA. I’d way rather go after Baynes’ age 34 year for the time period when MR is cheap.
I think it would cost more but if we could land Mitchell Robinson for 2 late firsts sign me up!

Super cheap for the next 2.5 seasons, we can see what he becomes and worry about paying him in the Summer of '22. He's the type of athletic 5 that would thrive in Brad's system.

I'm also not opposed to going for value at the 5, and adding numerous inexpensive, defense-first centers (YES to the Baynes welcome back party). As we're witnessing first-hand injuries can pile up and depth helps. Another thing to keep an eye on is Tacko's development at Maine, he could help the Celtics eventually. OR become a trade chip for a team that believes in Tacko.

On another note, after watching Joel Embiid abuse/bully Bam Adebayo yesterday numerous times, I'm firmly in the camp of the Celtics doubling him. You really need quick defenders that can rotate quickly on to him and disrupt his moves to the hoop. While also being able to get back on JRich, Harris, Horford, and Simmons. Speed/transition is a good way for the Celtics to combat the 76ers massive size advantage.
 

TripleOT

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Is it obvious that he’ll be better than TL, especially wrt the offensive end? Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have MR as well, but you’re going to have to pay him after the rookie deal, and you really can’t pay 2 5s in the modern NBA. I’d way rather go after Baynes’ age 34 year for the time period when MR is cheap.
IDK if he eventually will be better than TL, but switch them right now, and the Celtics would be a lot better off. We probably can't develop, and certainly can't eventually pay both. I've high on TL, but really wanted Robinson with that pick.
 

lovegtm

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TimeLord is by far the best nickname I can remember and stories like this solidify that fact
I feel proud to be the first member to use it on this site, even if I can’t take credit. It’s at a completely different nickname level, and works in all ways.
 

cadeni01

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Does anyone know anything about bone edemas? A quick Google search revealed thei are sometimes linked to osteoarthritis. Is this something to worry about recurring?

Edit: Deleted tweet--was beaten to the punch.
 
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