I Believe in Time Lord...Why Can't You?

Bernie Carbohydrate

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No one mourns Al Horford more than me. His intelligence, demeanor, lunch-pail ethic, ability to make Embiid look like a chump -- these will all be missed.

But by God I see the words "Enes Kanter" and "could be a fit" bandied around this joint .... and, well, a feller has to take a stand.

Time Lord, folks...I submit that blocking him with some JaVale McGee-type big is simply going to slow down his maturation into our very own Hassan-Whitesides-but with-a-better attitude (HWBWABA). Yes, there will be some bad moments when he's lost on defense. And yes, his offense is limited. But given minutes why can't he be Clint Capela with more blocked shots?

Believe!
 

ifmanis5

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Summer League this year is big for him. Need to see improvement in foul rate and consistent effort levels. I'm a fan of his but I doubt he gets to a Capela level offensively.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Summer League this year is big for him. Need to see improvement in foul rate and consistent effort levels. I'm a fan of his but I doubt he gets to a Capela level offensively.
I actually think we won't learn all that much from summer league. Summer league is a mess, basketball-wise, and Williams needs to learn who to play within a system against NBA talent.
Time Lord, folks...I submit that blocking him with some JaVale McGee-type big is simply going to slow down his maturation into our very own Hassan-Whitesides-but with-a-better attitude (HWBWABA). Yes, there will be some bad moments when he's lost on defense. And yes, his offense is limited. But given minutes why can't he be Clint Capela with more blocked shots?
There were plenty of available minutes last year for Time Lord, had he been playable. What we saw instead was that he flashed some good things (shotblocking, finishing lobs, mobility, occasional moments of decent 1-on-1 defense, occasional nice pass) but was, on the whole, not playable. He was Bill Parcells' infamous "ball in high grass", on both ends of the court.

This year, there will be plenty of minutes for him - if he can earn them. Which remains to be seen.

But there's hope. Clint Capela played 90 minutes as a rookie, then becamse a useful player in year 2.
 

Jimbodandy

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I didn't see a hint of a problem with "consistent effort levels", so no idea where that's coming from.

Al was great because Al could read defenses and offenses like the love child of Tom Brady and Lawrence Taylor. Robert has very little of that gift at the moment.

But he has other gifts and will probably get more reps. He needs those reps to improve, and Brad needs to give him the reps because bodies.

I have hope. He has the physical skills and isn't delusional with the ball. Frankly he kicks it like it burned his hand whenever he touches it. Brad should give him a longer leash this year.
 

Captaincoop

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We don't see practices, but there are a lot of red flags regarding how seriously he takes basketball.

Edit: and I say that while also believing he has a really high ceiling if he gets it all together
 

HomeRunBaker

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No one mourns Al Horford more than me. His intelligence, demeanor, lunch-pail ethic, ability to make Embiid look like a chump -- these will all be missed.

But by God I see the words "Enes Kanter" and "could be a fit" bandied around this joint .... and, well, a feller has to take a stand.

Time Lord, folks...I submit that blocking him with some JaVale McGee-type big is simply going to slow down his maturation into our very own Hassan-Whitesides-but with-a-better attitude (HWBWABA). Yes, there will be some bad moments when he's lost on defense. And yes, his offense is limited. But given minutes why can't he be Clint Capela with more blocked shots?

Believe!
You answered your own question. A players first offseason is often their greatest opportunity for growth. Let’s see some type of leap from TL in SL and the pre- before “giving” him anything. It’s all on his shoulders with the minutes there for the taking.
 

Cellar-Door

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Interesting quote from the other Williams:

"Rob's my guy. I met him playing in the SEC. He's a vocal player. He's doing a great job communicating and getting guys to understand not only the system but also coverages. He's doing a great job of leading right now."

Sounds like he's been calling out the coverages when the new guys practice, certainly encouraging
 

luckiestman

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I really want Time Lord to be good. In an era of mediocre to shitty nick names, Time Lord can not go to waste.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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You answered your own question. A players first offseason is often their greatest opportunity for growth. Let’s see some type of leap from TL in SL and the pre- before “giving” him anything. It’s all on his shoulders with the minutes there for the taking.
He’s a prime “if the game slows down for him, watch out” candidate, given the physical gifts and the fact that he came in pretty raw as most young bigs do. Not expecting a defensive QB in year 2 or anything but if what was just posted as I typed holds up on the court, maybe things could accelerate faster than expected.
 

Gash Prex

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We don't see practices, but there are a lot of red flags regarding how seriously he takes basketball.

Edit: and I say that while also believing he has a really high ceiling if he gets it all together
Where are those red flags? I saw nothing during the season to suggest he didn’t take basketball seriously - in fact all comments seemed to be opposite
 

Imbricus

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I watched a lot of Williams last year. There's no doubt in my mind he takes the game seriously. More than once I saw him give the skunk eye to another player, showing he wasn't afraid and ready to mix it up with anyone. My concerns are more (1) He was often a different player, much more passive, when he came in during garbage time (more than normal). But when you put him in with a challenge (guard Anthony Davis), he could be pretty impressive. (2) He spent too much time kind of floating around at the edge of the offense, but that may be a rookie thing. (3) He set a lot of weak, half-hearted picks. (4) I'm not sure if he's a high-motor guy. He can be quick and jump like hell but gets winded too easily. I'm not sure if that's his conditioning or just the way he's built. On the upside, the guy is a freak and was an unbelievably smart and sure-handed passer as a rookie. And (from Maine) it looks like he has a little jump shot too.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't get the whole "red flags" thing either. He did miss a couple of early AM wake-up calls, hence his nick-name. But nothing since those early season mishaps. I think it's on the folks saying that there are "red flags" to add some clarity as to the nature of those red flags.

EDIT: Missed @Imbricus post when I typed this, which explains some of the issues some folks here with TL.
 
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Swedgin

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I watched a lot of Williams last year. There's no doubt in my mind he takes the game seriously. More than once I saw him give the skunk eye to another player, showing he wasn't afraid and ready to mix it up with anyone. My concerns are more (1) He was often a different player, much more passive, when he came in during garbage time (more than normal). But when you put him in with a challenge (guard Anthony Davis), he could be pretty impressive. (2) He spent too much time kind of floating around at the edge of the offense, but that may be a rookie thing. (3) He set a lot of weak, half-hearted picks. (4) I'm not sure if he's a high-motor guy. He can be quick and jump like hell but gets winded too easily. I'm not sure if that's his conditioning or just the way he's built. On the upside, the guy is a freak and was an unbelievably smart and sure-handed passer as a rookie. And (from Maine) it looks like he has a little jump shot too.
These are the things that suggest he is not taking the game seriously (I confess to not having watched a minute of the Red Claws - just going off your observations). Guys who are not offensive savants and desperately want to stay in the league set bone rattling picks, get in tremendous shape and are active on both offense and defense.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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There were plenty of available minutes last year for Time Lord, had he been playable.
The coach admitted to having an off year. He's been criticized for forcing Hayward into big minutes early in the year. He let Morris overstay his days in the starting lineup. He did funky things like running Rozier and KI at the same time up until the bitter end. Perhaps TL's conservative minutes was another of Stevens' 2019 failures. I'm not a huge X and O's or analytics guy, like many on this site, but to my eye the kid brought some positives to the table- mainly shot blocking- which nobody else on the team could provide at all consistently. George Fucking Hill was high stepping through the paint without a care in the world by the end of the MIL series, for god's sake.
 

Jimbodandy

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These are the things that suggest he is not taking the game seriously (I confess to not having watched a minute of the Red Claws - just going off your observations). Guys who are not offensive savants and desperately want to stay in the league set bone rattling picks, get in tremendous shape and are active on both offense and defense.
Guys that are thinking their way through the game instead of playing instinctively make the same types of mistakes. They leave their picks a hair early because they're worried about their next assignment (rolling to the rim perhaps). And they dawdle in no man's land sometimes, rather than stretching to the corner to take away the 3, because they got their ass fried in practice by a back cut. We saw the same thing with Jaylen as a rookie. Sometimes it takes time for things to click. It's not necessarily a sign that a guy doesn't care. It could be that he is consumed with not screwing up, rather than playing loose. I wouldn't jump to any conclusions based on his limited minutes last year. Well other than the fact that he wasn't ready.

If he's not averaging at least 18 this year, then he hasn't earned them in practice and hasn't progressed at all. And then I would buy into this line of thinking.
 

oumbi

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There are some worries to be had about his work ethic and motivation. We'll have to see how that goes. Usually not an easy thing to change.
And maybe not. This article from almost a year ago talks about how he showed up at the practice center early in the morning. Let's hope he has matured.

 

RetractableRoof

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Guys that are thinking their way through the game instead of playing instinctively make the same types of mistakes. They leave their picks a hair early because they're worried about their next assignment (rolling to the rim perhaps). And they dawdle in no man's land sometimes, rather than stretching to the corner to take away the 3, because they got their ass fried in practice by a back cut. We saw the same thing with Jaylen as a rookie. Sometimes it takes time for things to click. It's not necessarily a sign that a guy doesn't care. It could be that he is consumed with not screwing up, rather than playing loose. I wouldn't jump to any conclusions based on his limited minutes last year. Well other than the fact that he wasn't ready.

If he's not averaging at least 18 this year, then he hasn't earned them in practice and hasn't progressed at all. And then I would buy into this line of thinking.
I completely agree with what you just wrote...

I'm not in binky camp over TL, but anyone looking at Imbricus' assessment and attributing any of those weaknesses as red flags in terms of taking the game seriously (with the possible exception of being winded too easy - for a non-injured athlete) is simply looking to find fault. Watching rookies in any professional sport we constantly see players a step behind, a step too early, too aggressive, not aggressive enough, getting caught in no mans land watching a play, blown assignments - often all in the same game. That's not even counting that some positions are more complicated to develop in than others, or that some coaches schemes on offense/defense/both might be hard to acquire. That is why most rookies don't shine. I've no clue about TL's eventual professional outcome, but attributing common symptoms of being a rookie (or young player trying to become a professionally capable athlete) as proof of red flags or as evidence of their desire/effort/lack of caring is just wrong.

@Imbricus, thanks for sharing what you've seen in Maine. As one of those who doesn't get to Maine for games and am curious about what is going on developmentally, I'm appreciative of you taking the time to write it up.
 

benhogan

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The coach admitted to having an off year. He's been criticized for forcing Hayward into big minutes early in the year. He let Morris overstay his days in the starting lineup. He did funky things like running Rozier and KI at the same time up until the bitter end. Perhaps TL's conservative minutes was another of Stevens' 2019 failures. I'm not a huge X and O's or analytics guy, like many on this site, but to my eye the kid brought some positives to the table- mainly shot blocking- which nobody else on the team could provide at all consistently. George Fucking Hill was high stepping through the paint without a care in the world by the end of the MIL series, for god's sake.
excellent post. quick/dirty recap of 2018-19
 

Eddie Jurak

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The coach admitted to having an off year. He's been criticized for forcing Hayward into big minutes early in the year. He let Morris overstay his days in the starting lineup. He did funky things like running Rozier and KI at the same time up until the bitter end. Perhaps TL's conservative minutes was another of Stevens' 2019 failures. I'm not a huge X and O's or analytics guy, like many on this site, but to my eye the kid brought some positives to the table- mainly shot blocking- which nobody else on the team could provide at all consistently. George Fucking Hill was high stepping through the paint without a care in the world by the end of the MIL series, for god's sake.
Williams did not get many minutes, but the Celtics had this persistent habit of getting run off the court when he was in the game in non-garbage situations. And he clearly looked like the talented-but-clueless sort during a lot of his playing time. I don't think the guys who were pissed at him for giving Hayward playing time would have taken well to Williams getting significant minutes, too, especially in light of what tended to happen when he was in the game.

I like him, the talent is obvious, this year is a great opportunity for him, but last year he was just bad in a lot of ways.
 

TripleOT

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I can see TL making a mini-leap this season. The team has had him for an entire year now, so his physical conditioning and core strength should be much better. Looking forward to seeing his energy level a summer league. An energetic rim protecting rim runner who can provide great pick/roll coverage is exactly what this offensively oriented roster needs.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I can see TL making a mini-leap this season. The team has had him for an entire year now, so his physical conditioning and core strength should be much better. Looking forward to seeing his energy level a summer league. An energetic rim protecting rim runner who can provide great pick/roll coverage is exactly what this offensively oriented roster needs.
Yes, this is very plausible. He’ll get more minutes than last year whether he makes any kind of a leap, or not. But if he does there is a ton of minutes there for the taking.
 

benhogan

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Williams did not get many minutes, but the Celtics had this persistent habit of getting run off the court when he was in the game in non-garbage situations. And he clearly looked like the talented-but-clueless sort during a lot of his playing time. I don't think the guys who were pissed at him for giving Hayward playing time would have taken well to Williams getting significant minutes, too, especially in light of what tended to happen when he was in the game.

I like him, the talent is obvious, this year is a great opportunity for him, but last year he was just bad in a lot of ways.
I think the point CoffeeNerdness was making is Brad could have tried using TL in better situations.

TL didn't play much so it's hard to judge his effectiveness, but we can judge how the coach used him.
-TL played 9 very effective minutes with Horford. (advanced off/def rating 141.2/ 72.7)
-TL played 85 ineffective minutes with MaMo. (advanced off/def 95.1/106.9)

TL was getting coached on the floor by Horford and mentioned it during the season. Why the hell didn't Brad play TL with Horford more (at all) and try to develop this?

“It was a good learning experience,” Williams said. “We were out there, Al was talking to me the whole time, talking me through the defense, telling me to stay down on pump fakes, be solid, be long, take rebounds. So I feel like it was a great experience.”


Brad had a terrible season and admitted as much at seasons end.


 
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lovegtm

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I think Brad was meh last year, but wrt to TL, he already had a minutes mutiny on his hands, and a team that was angry about someone as good as Hayward getting “developmental” minutes. I can’t even imagine what would have happened if he had given TL lots of run—dude was lost last year.

At the end of the day, the front office gave Brad too much to balance: winning to keep Kyrie, bringing Gordon back, minutes for contract guys, developing young players. I think this year will have a lot more organizational clarity, and the results will show it, even though the team won’t contend.
 

Nator

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The guy was a 1st round pick last year for a reason. I would bet being in the organization and knowing what to expect over the summer will have a big impact. He will be able to devote more mindshare to just getting better at basketball, rather than navigating his transition from a college to the NBA and all that it entailed. I also hope he takes advantage of the tremendous opportunity to earn some real NBA minutes that has materialized on this roster over the last 48 hours.
 

Kliq

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Just looking at a few optimistic comparisons for Time Lord:

Robert Williams: 283 minutes during rookie season

Clint Capela: 90 minutes during rookie season, 1,471 his second season.

Rudy Gobert: 434 minutes during rookie season, 2,158 his second season.

DeAndre Jordan: 771 minutes during rookie season, 1,137 his second season.

Montrezl Harrell: 379 minutes during rookie season, 1,064 his second season.

So for raw, shot blocking guys, especially guys picked outside of the lottery, they can play minimally their rookie season and make a leap in their second season. The only guy who got a decent amount of minutes in that group was Jordan, and that was because his team was terrible.
 

benhogan

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I think Brad was meh last year, but wrt to TL, he already had a minutes mutiny on his hands, and a team that was angry about someone as good as Hayward getting “developmental” minutes. I can’t even imagine what would have happened if he had given TL lots of run—dude was lost last year.

At the end of the day, the front office gave Brad too much to balance: winning to keep Kyrie, bringing Gordon back, minutes for contract guys, developing young players. I think this year will have a lot more organizational clarity, and the results will show it, even though the team won’t contend.
TL first round pick, a promising 2x SEC DPOY. Al Horford an intelligent frontcourt defensive savant. MaMo an awful defensive player. With our back up 5, Aron Baynes injured quite a bit. It's not rocket science here.

I'm sure you agree, Brad could have found more than 9 minutes to pair TL with Horford over the 82-game regular season. Just take some of the 85 minutes TL played w/MaMo.

I give Brad a D- in developing TL last season and agree with CoffeeNerdness take
 

lovegtm

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Just looking at a few optimistic comparisons for Time Lord:

Robert Williams: 283 minutes during rookie season

Clint Capela: 90 minutes during rookie season, 1,471 his second season.

Rudy Gobert: 434 minutes during rookie season, 2,158 his second season.

DeAndre Jordan: 771 minutes during rookie season, 1,137 his second season.

Montrezl Harrell: 379 minutes during rookie season, 1,064 his second season.

So for raw, shot blocking guys, especially guys picked outside of the lottery, they can play minimally their rookie season and make a leap in their second season. The only guy who got a decent amount of minutes in that group was Jordan, and that was because his team was terrible.
This reminds me of the Calvin and Hobbes where he tells his teacher: "You know how Einstein's grades were bad? Well, mine are even worse!"

In all seriousness though this is valuable--basically rookie year for these types doesn't tell you much at all. As HRB said, this summer is critical for him, and we'll know a lot more when the preseason hits.
 

lovegtm

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TL first round pick, a promising 2x SEC DPOY. Al Horford an intelligent frontcourt defensive savant. MaMo an awful defensive player. With our back up 5, Aron Baynes injured quite a bit. It's not rocket science here.

I'm sure you agree, Brad could have found more than 9 minutes to pair TL with Horford over the 82-game regular season. Just take some of the 85 minutes TL played w/MaMo.

I give Brad gets a D- in developing TL last season and agree with CoffeeNerdness take
I mean...I guess? He could have played them together for 100 minutes instead of 9? I don't think it matters much for TL's development. Kliq's post of similar players is pretty representative of how much raw bigs tend to play early--not much. All the other guys mentioned (who turned out great) were drafted in similar slots, so I don't think that the 1st round pick/SEC stuff is really that relevant at all.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I think Brad was meh last year, but wrt to TL, he already had a minutes mutiny on his hands, and a team that was angry about someone as good as Hayward getting “developmental” minutes. I can’t even imagine what would have happened if he had given TL lots of run—dude was lost last year.

At the end of the day, the front office gave Brad too much to balance: winning to keep Kyrie, bringing Gordon back, minutes for contract guys, developing young players. I think this year will have a lot more organizational clarity, and the results will show it, even though the team won’t contend.
For sure getting a player like TL minutes on last year's team was a less than ideal situation to put it mildly, except with all the Baynes injuries the only person who would have been rightfully upset would have been Daniel Theis.

Going from memory here but I recall him having a really positive impact in a run of games during late November. Some four and five block nights in short minutes is nothing to sneeze at even if he does get lost on a play or two. Brought good positive energy while the team was in its first extended funk. It felt odd that he struggled to get minutes as the season progressed.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think Brad was meh last year, but wrt to TL, he already had a minutes mutiny on his hands, and a team that was angry about someone as good as Hayward getting “developmental” minutes. I can’t even imagine what would have happened if he had given TL lots of run—dude was lost last year.

At the end of the day, the front office gave Brad too much to balance: winning to keep Kyrie, bringing Gordon back, minutes for contract guys, developing young players. I think this year will have a lot more organizational clarity, and the results will show it, even though the team won’t contend.
Yeah this has the ring of truth to it. Brad was out of his depth, and it wasn't entirely his fault. Organizational clarity is key and should be better. Juggling 3 balls well is much better than juggling 12 balls poorly.
 

lovegtm

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For sure getting a player like TL minutes on last year's team was a less than ideal situation to put it mildly, except with all the Baynes injuries the only person who would have been rightfully upset would have been Daniel Theis.

Going from memory here but I recall him having a really positive impact in a run of games during late November. Some four and five block nights in short minutes is nothing to sneeze at even if he does get lost on a play or two. Brought good positive energy while the team was in its first extended funk. It felt odd that he struggled to get minutes as the season progressed.
The blocks masked a ton of plays on both ends where he was pretty lost, and clearly thinking rather than playing (as jimbodandy noted). That's fine--he's young! I'm still really high on TL, I just think that there were pretty good reasons not to give him a lot of run.

Brad can be criticized for lots of stuff: handling of Hayward, the Rozier+KI lineups, not enough Baynes+Horford, etc. TL is way down on the list, and there's a good chance he was handled totally fine.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The guy was a 1st round pick last year for a reason.


TL first round pick, a promising 2x SEC DPOY. Al Horford an intelligent frontcourt defensive savant. MaMo an awful defensive player. With our back up 5, Aron Baynes injured quite a bit. It's not rocket science here.

I'm sure you agree, Brad could have found more than 9 minutes to pair TL with Horford over the 82-game regular season. Just take some of the 85 minutes TL played w/MaMo.

I give Brad a D- in developing TL last season and agree with CoffeeNerdness take
Keep in mind that the largest majority of late 1st round picks never become regular rotation players or earn a second NBA contract. TL is and always has been a flier in the hopes that he can utilize his massive physicals to someday become a rotation player. He wasn't going to get minutes on any non-tanking team last year nor did he show anything in his limited minutes to deserve them.
 

lovegtm

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Keep in mind that the largest majority of late 1st round picks never become regular rotation players or earn a second NBA contract. TL is and always has been a flier in the hopes that he can utilize his massive physicals to someday become a rotation player. He wasn't going to get minutes on any non-tanking team last year nor did he show anything in his limited minutes to deserve them.
Should just be pinned on the top of the thread.
 

Devizier

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Isn't the biggest issue with Williams that he's pretty much exclusively a clean up guy? 10% usage with >80% of his shots 3 feet and in. And that passes the eye test for me, too.

That's a tough player to have on the court when the opposing big never has to leave the paint.
 

lovegtm

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Isn't the biggest issue with Williams that he's pretty much exclusively a clean up guy? 10% usage with >80% of his shots 3 feet and in. And that passes the eye test for me, too.

That's a tough player to have on the court when the opposing big never has to leave the paint.
There's plenty of precedent for guys like that being offensive plusses once they learn how to set screens and put pressure on the rim vertically. In fact, all of the guys who come to mind are Williams' closest comps in terms of skill set and draft slot: DJ, Gobert, Capela, etc.

The key isn't whether the opposing big is out of the paint: it's whether he can fully commit to the ballhandler/immediate scoring threat.
 

Devizier

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There's plenty of precedent for guys like that being offensive plusses once they learn how to set screens and put pressure on the rim vertically. In fact, all of the guys who come to mind are Williams' closest comps in terms of skill set and draft slot: DJ, Gobert, Capela, etc.
Well, obviously. But those guys are exceptions for a reason.
 

lovegtm

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Well, obviously. But those guys are exceptions for a reason.
They're exceptions in that there aren't many tall, athletic dudes in the world who can learn to read and play the game properly, and most fail to. But if/when they do, you get a lot of the offensive stuff for free.

Put another way: if Williams fulfills his defensive potential (a big longshot!) he'll likely understand the game well enough to be a positive offensive contributor.
 

cheech13

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FWIW, 538 has their new CARMELO player projections out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo

Willimas has one of the oddest projections. They classified him in the category of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Top comps were Jelani McCoy, Ante Zizic and Amir Johnson. If he's Johson that's a nice player; can't say as much for the other two.
 

lovegtm

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FWIW, 538 has their new CARMELO player projections out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo

Willimas has one of the oddest projections. They classified him in the category of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Top comps were Jelani McCoy, Ante Zizic and Amir Johnson. If he's Johson that's a nice player; can't say as much for the other two.
Is there anything that indicates the people at 538 have any sort of expertise in this stuff?

Johnson and Zizic are pretty dumb comps for Williams, since if he busts he busts, and if he doesn't, his skillset and role will be completely different than that of those guys.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well, obviously. But those guys are exceptions for a reason.
They are exceptions due to not many playing with elite PNR guys like Paul and Harden.....and to a lesser degree, Rubio. To not be a complete liability with their skillset they need to be in a perfect scheme with the right teammates. It's why some of us didn't like the idea of Capela being a target without having Paul/Harden as initiators.

The good news is that TL was able to show some semblance of an offensive game in college when teams weren't collapsing into a 2-3 zone against him and Tyler Davis. If he can get the game to slow down for him he has a chance to make it. This summer is going to give us some look into how well he's progressing.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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around the way
They're exceptions in that there aren't many tall, athletic dudes in the world who can learn to read and play the game properly, and most fail to. But if/when they do, you get a lot of the offensive stuff for free.

Put another way: if Williams fulfills his defensive potential (a big longshot!) he'll likely understand the game well enough to be a positive offensive contributor.
I agree. I would also bet a week's pay that someone had him specifically NOT trying to initiate his own offense last year at risk of losing whatever minutes he was getting. Every time he touched the ball, he held it for less time than a hummingbird fart. He was clearly coached to swing the ball asap.

Not that anyone necessarily wants him trying his best Olajuwan imitation, but IMO absence of offensive moves last year tells us nothing. And we have reports from someone upthread that he flashed a jumper in Maine.
 

cheech13

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Is there anything that indicates the people at 538 have any sort of expertise in this stuff?

Johnson and Zizic are pretty dumb comps for Williams, since if he busts he busts, and if he doesn't, his skillset and role will be completely different than that of those guys.
It's rated out very well in previous years, but they haven't yet updated to show how they did in 2018-19. Here's what was posted on the previous year's iteration:

In the regular season, CARMELO performed very well, as its preseason projections were the second-most accurate of the 20 projection systems tracked by the statheads at the ABPRmetrics message board. It also correctly predicted the Warriors defeating the Cavaliers as the most likely NBA Finals matchup (not that this was a bold take, exactly).

CARMELO was also among the most accurate regular-season prediction systems in its debut year in 2015-16...
Not sure there is a better projection system that is available for free.

Williams has bad comps because he's such a weird player. Similarity scores are scaled 1-100. His best comp (McCoy) is a 40. Basically the system doesn't know who to compare him to, which is why his projection is all over the map.
 

lovegtm

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It's rated out very well in previous years, but they haven't yet updated to show how they did in 2018-19. Here's what was posted on the previous year's iteration:



Not sure there is a better projection system that is available for free.

Williams has bad comps because he's such a weird player. Similarity scores are scaled 1-100. His best comp (McCoy) is a 40. Basically the system doesn't know who to compare him to, which is why his projection is all over the map.
Sorry, I wasn't clear, my bad. By "this kind of stuff" I meant projecting individual prospects rather than macro team wins. Those are pretty separate domains imo.
 

benhogan

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Keep in mind that the largest majority of late 1st round picks never become regular rotation players or earn a second NBA contract. TL is and always has been a flier in the hopes that he can utilize his massive physicals to someday become a rotation player. He wasn't going to get minutes on any non-tanking team last year nor did he show anything in his limited minutes to deserve them.
Fine. No argument here. Everyone knows TL was/is a late 1st round flier.

My take: play the flier, TL, with savvy vet Al Horford for 85 minutes instead of MaMo to help with his development.

I'm willing to bet TL/Horford > TL/MaMo in those minutes, and TL learns more playing with Horford. In fact, Robert Williams said exactly that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Fine. No argument here. Everyone knows TL was/is a late 1st round flier.

My take: play the flier, TL, with savvy vet Al Horford for 85 minutes instead of MaMo to help with his development.

I'm willing to bet TL/Horford > TL/MaMo in those minutes, and TL learns more playing with Horford. In fact, Robert Williams said exactly that.
Right.....except we weren't tanking last year. When the players see that winning is not the coaches #1 priority they have no reason to sell out for the coach. You can't play developmental players over veterans when winning is the goal.