Hypothetical Prospect Evaluation

[Over Guapo Grande]

A thought that popped into my head, based on the AAP thread about the Roman Anthony and Cleopatra status of #1 overall.

Back in 2016, Moncada was #1 overall, and Kopech was 67 overall in the (I guess?) MLB overall prospect ratings. (https://www.milb.com/news/gcs-210426434) - they were traded for Chris Sale, who helped bring another title to Fenway.

Would you trade Prince Spaghetti Night (1) and BMont (61) if you knew that you were guaranteed a WS win within the next 3 years? Instant(ish) gratification or long term enjoyment of development?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Every day and twice on Sunday. Hell, I’d trade the ATM machine for that guaranteed.

 

[LogansDad]

This is an interesting question. In the hypothetical, does not making the trade guarantee that the Red Sox don't win a World Series in, say, the X number of years?

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

This is an interesting question. In the hypothetical, does not making the trade guarantee that the Red Sox don't win a World Series in, say, the X number of years?

Yes- in the hypothetical, it to play out the string. Like,... a convoluted version of "Let's Make a Deal." You know that door #1 is a WS win. Is Door #2 multiple WS wins? Or is it a goat? Is it 1st to last to first?


EDIT - I may have been to quick on the yes -- I think I got caught up in a double negative. Not trading them doesn't guarantee the lack of a WS win. It's business as usual.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Edit -- dumb me.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Shit, I’d take three or four last place finishes, too, if I was guaranteed a Title in the next three years.

 

[IpswichSox]

But after the World Series win, would we sign the new pitcher to a shitty extension that cripples the team for years, leading to the eventual dismissal of two GMs?

 

[ALiveH]

Just glanced at Kopech's and Moncada's career. Fair to say we won that trade!

Kopech has been a league average pitcher and missed a couple years with injury.

Moncada's MLB stats make you wonder how he was ever the #1 prospect in the game. His K-rate is so high that it calls into question the evaluation of his hit tool. And for somebody that supposedly had plus-plus speed, he has been a mediocre baserunning threat.

There is nobody in MLB today who is the equivalent of Sale at the time of that trade (Skenes?). He was basically the perfect pitching acquisition. If there were a similar pitcher available you do that trade every time (taking the benefit of hindsight out of it). At the time, Sale was a cost-controlled 27 year old Cy Young contender for six years in a row, ever since he became a full time starter and never had any durability or injury issues. There is nobody around today that young with that track record.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

But after the World Series win, would we sign the new pitcher to a shitty extension that cripples the team for years, leading to the eventual dismissal of two GMs?

As long as we win a title more often than once a decade, say, four times in 22 years, I am a very happy fan.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Just glanced at Kopech's and Moncada's career. Fair to say we won that trade!

Kopech has been a league average pitcher and missed a couple years with injury.

Moncada's MLB stats make you wonder how he was ever the #1 prospect in the game. His K-rate is so high that it calls into question the evaluation of his hit tool. And for somebody that supposedly had plus-plus speed, he has been a mediocre baserunning threat.

There is nobody in MLB today who is the equivalent of Sale at the time of that trade (Skenes?). He was basically the perfect pitching acquisition. If there were a similar pitcher available you do that trade every time (taking the benefit of hindsight out of it). At the time, Sale was a cost-controlled 27 year old Cy Young contender for six years in a row, ever since he became a full time starter and never had any durability or injury issues. There is nobody around today that young with that track record.

Not that I wouldn’t do that trade… but I’m 100% certain that he had exhibited a drop in K-rate, WHiP, etc… in 3 consecutive seasons around mid August to the end of the season. Was never diagnosed as anything but there was speculation that his skinny frame couldn’t hold up for more than 130-140 high quality innings before his arm just became exhausted.
Even in 2018- his only healthy season…. He pretty much did the same thing and was barely good in the playoffs at all