How will it all end? Predict the 2014 Red Sox.

[dcmissle]

 
This is very much true which is combined with the fact that the "second half" is only 67 games. 
 
If this team is to do anything, it really needs an outlier, Morgan Magic level winning streak and it needs it before the deadline that's two weeks away.

That's exactly right. Absent something like a dozen in a row, it becomes very foolish not to pass on favorable trade deals. It's not just the margin or number of games left. It's also the number of teams you have to pass. (And on that point, the WC spots seem out of reach).

 

[Rasputin]

That's exactly right. Absent something like a dozen in a row, it becomes very foolish not to pass on favorable trade deals. It's not just the margin or number of games left. It's also the number of teams you have to pass. (And on that point, the WC spots seem out of reach).

 
I don't know that I am all that worried about the number of teams we need to climb over. Just getting to .500 is going to involve climbing over some of them and if that streak happens, it's going to come largely at the expense of the Blue Jays (7 games before the deadline) and Kansas City (3 games) and they just happen to be two of the three teams vying for the last spot that are over .500.
 
Point being, we need a streak to get back into things. If we get it, it will take care of most of the teams we have to climb over.
 
Which is to say, I'll worry about how many teams we have to climb over once we reach .500.

 

[Rasputin]

I assume when you say "before the break" you mean the deadline?

I do indeed.

 

[Archer1979]

Provided Cherington doesn't blow this up, they could climb back into this.  
 
They have no games left against:
 
Detroit
Oakland
Cleveland
Milwaukee
 
The significance of this is that the Sox are a combined 6 - 17 against those four teams which, with the exception of Oakland, have thoroughly dominated the Sox this year.  The downside of this is that they have 7 games against the LAA (with a fairly truncated three game West Coast road trip) and three against the Cardinals in the second half.  Obviously, they've dug a very deep hole for themselves, and if they play .500 ball, they're going nowhere, but the conditions are ripe for a good run.
 
The playoffs are another matter entirely as this team does not match up well with the teams that they would most likely meet in October.
 
My verdict: Possible playoff berth, early to mid-round exit.

 

[Rasputin]

 
 
My verdict: Possible playoff berth, early to mid-round exit.

 
Which means what, losing in the Division Series or the LCS?
 
Given where we've been, I could live with that.
 
But if...and it's a fairly sizeable if...Lester, Lackey, and most especially Buchholz are all healthy and pitching well when the playoffs start, well, I wouldn't want to play us.

 

[Archer1979]

 
Which means what, losing in the Division Series or the LCS?
 
Given where we've been, I could live with that.
 
But if...and it's a fairly sizeable if...Lester, Lackey, and most especially Buchholz are all healthy and pitching well when the playoffs start, well, I wouldn't want to play us.

 
If they play Oakland or LAAA in ALDS, they could win the ALDS on pitching alone .  I just don't see how they could win a series against Detroit with the offense being what it is. 

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Of course, they can't compete with any of them so it doesn't really matter.

vs. BAL: 6-7
vs. DET: 1-5
vs. OAK: 3-4
vs. SEA: 1-2

 

[Rasputin]

Of course, they can't compete with any of them so it doesn't really matter.

 
Over a five or seven game series, anything can happen, what with the shortened rotations and bullpens and most especially with there being only five or seven games.
 
Also, and I cannot stress this point enough, should we get there, it won't be the same team that we saw for most of the first half.

 

[Al Zarilla]

vs. BAL: 6-7
vs. DET: 1-5
vs. OAK: 3-4
vs. SEA: 1-2

That was all with AJP on the team, or what Ras said.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

That was all with AJP on the team, or what Ras said.

I'm in complete agreement, they have played most of the first place teams (I.e., not Detroit) at about a .500 rate. That's competitive enough.

 

[dynomite]

Provided Cherington doesn't blow this up, they could climb back into this.

Last week I posted some stats about the task facing the Red Sox. You're right that the numbers look better today than last week, but let's take stock.

Most importantly:
1) After this weekend the Mariners are still in line for the 2nd Wild Card, despite only being pace to finish 86-76.
2) To finish 86-76, the Red Sox would need to go 40-24 (.625) the rest of the way.

So, it's slightly more realistic today than it was last week, but again: the Oakland A's have been the best team in baseball this year at .622, and haven't played as well as the Red Sox will have to play from here on to make the playoffs*.

*And this is assuming, of course, that 86-76 will be good enough for the 2nd Wild Card.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

So, it's slightly more realistic today than it was last week, but again: the Oakland A's have been the best team in baseball this year at .622, and haven't played as well as the Red Sox will have to play from here on to make the playoffs*.

*And this is assuming, of course, that 86-76 will be good enough for the 2nd Wild Card.

This is when small samples are our friend. It's easier to have a .622 winning percentage over 64 games than an entire season. At a quick glance, the A's started 39-25, so did the Red Sox last year. Heck, the Giants started this year 42-22. If you pick any given 64 game stretch, more often than not you will find at least one team that won 40 of them. This team needs to be the best in the AL for the rest of the year. They don't need to be the 2002 A's or 2013 Dodgers.

Looking only at their record, you wouldn't say it's possible. On the other hand, they have a ton of talent. This roster is kind of built for September, with the bullpen bolstered by folks from AAA, Betts available to pinch run, WMB to pinch hit, maybe Drew will be through his spring training...a while ago I compared this team to the 2004 one. That team finished 44-20. AJP DFA is going to be the new Nomar trade.

 

[Rasputin]

Last week I posted some stats about the task facing the Red Sox. You're right that the numbers look better today than last week, but let's take stock.

Most importantly:
1) After this weekend the Mariners are still in line for the 2nd Wild Card, despite only being pace to finish 86-76.
2) To finish 86-76, the Red Sox would need to go 40-24 (.625) the rest of the way.

So, it's slightly more realistic today than it was last week, but again: the Oakland A's have been the best team in baseball this year at .622, and haven't played as well as the Red Sox will have to play from here on to make the playoffs*.

*And this is assuming, of course, that 86-76 will be good enough for the 2nd Wild Card.

If they do this, is not likely to be by getting the wild card but by a) going on a big streak and getting to .500 before the deadline to convince management is even possible, then b) dragging the rest of the AL East down. We have seven games with the Jays before the deadline and we need to make them sellers. We have six games against the Orioles in the last three weeks or so of the season.

That's thirteen games and we have to come very close to winning every single one of them.

And if we do need to go the wild card route, we have seven games in August against the Angels and those three teams, the Angels, Athletics, and Mariners will be beating the crap about out of reach other for much of the last six weeks of the season.

For that matter, the Mariners address going to have their hands full. Thirteen games with the As and Angels in September plus the Orioles, Braves, Red Sox, Tigers, and National in August.

This shit's doable folks. We need to catch damn near every break, but it's doable.

 

[HurstSoGood]

Last week I posted some stats about the task facing the Red Sox. You're right that the numbers look better today than last week, but let's take stock.

Most importantly:
1) After this weekend the Mariners are still in line for the 2nd Wild Card, despite only being pace to finish 86-76.
2) To finish 86-76, the Red Sox would need to go 40-24 (.625) the rest of the way.

So, it's slightly more realistic today than it was last week, but again: the Oakland A's have been the best team in baseball this year at .622, and haven't played as well as the Red Sox will have to play from here on to make the playoffs*.

*And this is assuming, of course, that 86-76 will be good enough for the 2nd Wild Card.

I think we need to get to 90 wins. Here is how we do it, based on the remaining games:
9-4 vs TOR
4-2 vs BAL
6-3 vs NYY
6-4 vs TB        This is 25-13 vs the AL East. (and while the w/l combos may not matter, I'd rather win each series vs Division opponents)
 
2-1 vs StL
2-0 vs CIN
4-0 vs HOU
4-3 vs LAA
2-1 vs SEA
3-1 vs KC
2-1 vs PIT       This is 19-7 against the rest of the AL.
 
Total: 44-20 in remaining games. Final record: 90-62. If we can go 9-4/10-3 over the next 13 (TOR/TB/TOR/NYY)…things are going to get really interesting.
 

 
This guy dares the rest of the league to let us back into the race...
 
Edit: And what Ras said.

 

[dynomite]

This is when small samples are our friend. It's easier to have a .622 winning percentage over 64 games than an entire season. ... This team needs to be the best in the AL for the rest of the year. They don't need to be the 2002 A's or 2013 Dodgers. ..a while ago I compared this team to the 2004 one. That team finished 44-20. AJP DFA is going to be the new Nomar trade.

I love the attitude, and I hope to hell you're right.

Indeed, according to Baseball Reference three teams have had a 40-24 or better streak this year (Angels, Giants, A's). Hell, the 2013 Red Sox went 40-24 from June 30th through September 11th. And the 2011 Red Sox went 46-18 from May 13th until July 26th.

Still, as everyone has noted, going on a stretch of .620+ baseball for 2+ months requires a LOT of things to go right and a LOT of players to play at their absolute peak. All of that said, it happened in 1988 (42-22 from July 15th to Sept 18th) and 2004, and it could again. Would be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

 

[mabrowndog]

They have no games left against:
 
Detroit
Oakland
Cleveland
Milwaukee
 
The significance of this is that the Sox are a combined 6 - 17 against those four teams which, with the exception of Oakland, have thoroughly dominated the Sox this year.  The downside of this is that they have 7 games against the LAA (with a fairly truncated three game West Coast road trip) and three against the Cardinals in the second half.  Obviously, they've dug a very deep hole for themselves, and if they play .500 ball, they're going nowhere, but the conditions are ripe for a good run.

 
Looking closer at the 64 games remaining on the schedule:
 
[tablegrid=] 29 35     HOME AWAY       4 @ TOR       3 @ TBR   Non-Waiver Trade Deadline (July 31) after TOR series → 3 vs TOR       3 vs NYY         3 @ STL       3 @ LAA       2 @ CIN     4 vs HOU       4 vs LAA       3 vs SEA         3 @ TOR       4 @ TBR ← Waiver Trade Deadline (Aug 31) after G3 @ TBR     3 @ NYY     3 vs TOR       3 vs BAL         4 @ KCR       3 @ PIT       3 @ BAL     3 vs TBR       3 vs NYY     [/tablegrid]
 
Breaking things down further:
 
[tablegrid=] 38 vs AL East H 18 A 20 13 TOR 6 TOR 7 TOR 10 TBR 6 NYY 7 TBR 9 NYY 3 BAL 3 NYY 6 BAL 3 TBR 3 BAL       8 vs NL H 0 A 8 3 STL   3 STL 2 CIN   2 CIN 3 PIT   3 PIT       14 vs AL West H 11 A 3 7 LAA 4 LAA 3 LAA 4 HOU 4 HOU   3 SEA 3 SEA         4 vs AL Central H 0 A 4 4 KCR   4 KCR [/tablegrid]
 
No games left with: OAK, TEX, DET, CWS, CLE, MIN
 
As noted upthread, to win 90 they'll have to go 44-20 (.688). Playing .600 ball the rest of the way (39-25) gets them to 85 wins. To end up at .500 on the year, they'll have to finish 37-27 (.578).
 
The most dangerous part of the remaining schedule, IMO, may well be the inter-league slate. 8 games, all on the road with no DH, and against lineups that either mash or hit solidly in their home parks (PIT 2nd in NL OPS .272/.351/.393/.744, CIN 4th in NL OPS .250/.317/.411/.728, STL 7th in NL OPS .258/.330/.392/.723).
 
Yes, when healthy this Sox team is capable of getting insanely hot. But as much as I want to be an uber-optimist I've long been a faithful tither and communicant of the Our Lady of Shit Happens church, and I just don't think they can get hot enough to reach the promised land. So pencil me in for a 38-26 record the rest of the way (.594), finishing at 82-80 and out of the playoffs.

 

[jscola85]

None of those teams have been good in interleague play this year though (combined record of 14-22), and while the Sox are 6-6 this year in interleague, historically they have been one of the best interleague teams in baseball, even while dealing with the nowhere-to-play-Papi issue.  The toughest stretch to me looks like the ten-game stretch where they play LAA 4x, Seattle 3x and then on the road against Toronto 3x.  All three of those teams are significantly better than the NL Central troika, even if we do get to play 7 of those 10 at home.

 

[Archer1979]

 
 
No games left with: OAK, TEX, DET, CWS, CLE, MIN
 
As noted upthread, to win 90 they'll have to go 44-20 (.688). Playing .600 ball the rest of the way (39-25) gets them to 85 wins. To end up at .500 on the year, they'll have to finish 37-27 (.578).
 
The most dangerous part of the remaining schedule, IMO, may well be the inter-league slate. 8 games, all on the road with no DH, and against lineups that either mash or hit solidly in their home parks (PIT 2nd in NL OPS .272/.351/.393/.744, CIN 4th in NL OPS .250/.317/.411/.728, STL 7th in NL OPS .258/.330/.392/.723).
 
Yes, when healthy this Sox team is capable of getting insanely hot. But as much as I want to be an uber-optimist I've long been a faithful tither and communicant of the Our Lady of Shit Happens church, and I just don't think they can get hot enough to reach the promised land. So pencil me in for a 38-26 record the rest of the way (.594), finishing at 82-80 and out of the playoffs.

 
I think that's (bolded) where this team is right now (although playing Houston and KC may have more to do with it).  This is a very young team right now, and young teams are, characteristically, streaky due to lack of experience.  To me, it's a large part of why they are in the spot that they are.  If they do climb out of it, it's also going to be part of why they were successful.
 
The thing that's the killer in the schedule above is the beginning of August.  If they can come back from St. Louis and LA without dropping below 5 games, they've got as decent of a shot as any team in the AL East.  This is all assuming that they don't have any schedule farts like getting swept by the Cubs at home.  
 
But my prediction of the AL East and maybe getting to the ALCS is the ceiling for this team.  By the way, when coming up with my post above, I entirely neglected the trade that Oakland made.  There's no easy draw out of either the AL Central (Detroit) or AL West (Oakland) in the first round.  Tigers against the A's should be the ALCS matchup as things stand now.