How to improve the WR position

Cellar-Door

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I hope you guys are right, and we can sign him for 12-13mil/year.

If you think Kirk has something Meyers doesn't, what do you think about Hunter Renfrow? The Raiders gave him 2/32.3mil last year with 21mil guaranteed.

Russell Gage got 3/30 with 20mil guaranteed

Courtland Sutton got 4/60.8 with 35mil guaranteed.


At the end of the day, most contracts come down to production. Meyers has just as much production over the last few years as any of those guys. I'll be shocked personally if he doesn't get north of 17.5mil/year from somebody. It's just what a good #2 receiver like him is worth in the market now, even before the increase in salary cap, and given how little wide receiver options there are out there in FA. As much as I've railed about Jakobi not being a #1 here in New England, he's going to be a good #2 for somebody. I prefer it be here, but I don't know...
I mean....
Kirk runs 4.42 which helps, and his deal was widely derided, Courtland Sutton is 6'4" and a freak athlete and his deal has pretty minima guarantees (18M in a 4 year deal), Gage got basically 2/20 and that was because they needed to structure it to only hit $5.6M against the cap year 1, Renfrow is also basically 2/$20M with some cap machinatons. So yeah, Meyers could get a deal that looks like it's 15-17M a year, but likely that's just fake money at the end.

And honestly... production isn't the only thing in contracts, there is also projection, hence why Sutton and Kirk who have physical traits get more. Same reason Edelman was underpaid by so much compared to his production peers.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I mean....
Kirk runs 4.42 which helps, and his deal was widely derided, Courtland Sutton is 6'4" and a freak athlete and his deal has pretty minima guarantees (18M in a 4 year deal), Gage got basically 2/20 and that was because they needed to structure it to only hit $5.6M against the cap year 1, Renfrow is also basically 2/$20M with some cap machinatons. So yeah, Meyers could get a deal that looks like it's 15-17M a year, but likely that's just fake money at the end.

And honestly... production isn't the only thing in contracts, there is also projection, hence why Sutton and Kirk who have physical traits get more. Same reason Edelman was underpaid by so much compared to his production peers.
Edelman was underpaid mostly because his timing sucked, no?

He signed a rookie deal in 2009, and basically did nothing before that expired.

Signed a 1 year show me deal in 2013, and then had his first good season with 105 catches, 1,056 yards and 6tds.

Parlayed that into a 4 year deal as a 28 year old slot receiver 4yr/17mil deal.

But that deal was set to expire, and he missed the entire 2017 season. Then they restructured him in 2017 for 2yr/11mil and then restructured again in 2019 for 2/15.

I love Edelman and all, but the guy only had 1 season in the top 5 in receptions (4th), never was in the top 10 in receiving yards, never in the top 10 in touchdowns, never made a pro bowl, missed an entire season in his shortened prime with a torn ACL, then returned to a PED suspension, and just had bad timing.

Yeah, there's still a projection component, but the first thing agents do when they walk into a room is drop comps on the desk based on production when negotiating a deal. At least that's what Flutie's agent taught us back when I was hoping to become an agent in law school. Meyers comps out well, and he's got the added benefit of perfect timing given the market around him.

Like I said, I hope to be wrong, because he and Mac definitely have chemistry, he knows how New England works, I think its' clear that BB likes him and he's a solid, solid #2.
 

Cellar-Door

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Edelman was underpaid mostly because his timing sucked, no?

He signed a rookie deal in 2009, and basically did nothing before that expired.

Signed a 1 year show me deal in 2013, and then had his first good season with 105 catches, 1,056 yards and 6tds.

Parlayed that into a 4 year deal as a 28 year old slot receiver 4yr/17mil deal.

But that deal was set to expire, and he missed the entire 2017 season. Then they restructured him in 2017 for 2yr/11mil and then restructured again in 2019 for 2/15.

I love Edelman and all, but the guy only had 1 season in the top 5 in receptions (4th), never was in the top 10 in receiving yards, never in the top 10 in touchdowns, never made a pro bowl, missed an entire season in his shortened prime with a torn ACL, then returned to a PED suspension, and just had bad timing.

Yeah, there's still a projection component, but the first thing agents do when they walk into a room is drop comps on the desk based on production when negotiating a deal. At least that's what Flutie's agent taught us back when I was hoping to become an agent in law school. Meyers comps out well, and he's got the added benefit of perfect timing given the market around him.

Like I said, I hope to be wrong, because he and Mac definitely have chemistry, he knows how New England works, I think its' clear that BB likes him and he's a solid, solid #2.
Edelman's timing did stink, but that 4/17 deal was still a steal at the time, same money as Andre Roberts, less than Riley Cooper, guys with nothing much production wise
 

SMU_Sox

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I was priming the pump earlier in order to get to this, but am I crazy for wanting them to keep Meyers AND grab one of your three college slots? Fwiw, Mac seems to have a trust relationship with Jacobi, with more targets, receptions, and yards than any other receiver (and with a decent catch rate). They should be able to trade down and grab one of the big3 plus a tackle and still sign a FA tackle too.

That's a lot of resources to throw at WR and OT, but the offense seems to need it.
You aren't crazy but for Meyers money you could almost get a high end OT. To me the team needs 2 starting caliber OTs even if one is just a high quality swing tackle, they need 1-2 (probably just 1) high quality outside CBs, and then IOL depth, and likely a FS. I would rather draft a better WR if possible. Let's see what they can do in free agency and who they cut. If they can clear more space, good. It seems like the easiest way to upgrade the WR position is through the draft.

And btw I got through yet another good slot option last night AND a very nice TE 2, Nathaniel Dell, and Dalton Kincaid. This year is an averagish draft but even in an averagish draft there are more prototypes of one style of player than another. This is a good year for slot receivers who are good route runners and have + RAC.
 

j44thor

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@SMU_Sox have you scouted Parker Washington from PSU? Seems like he could be a solid power slot with a little wiggle. Not as twitchy as the smaller guys but at 5'10 215 could be a mis-match for some slot corners. Dell seems just a bit too small, that is TuTu Atwell size. Washington should last to the 3rd and seems like he could be the reliable chain mover this team needs. Not sexy but could be highly productive in the right system and help in the run game.
 

SMU_Sox

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I am not a fan of his. He’s awful against man. Doesn’t get separation. Ok RAC. Kind of reminds me a little of David Bell from last year. I don’t think he’s going to translate. Too slow. Not sudden enough. Good vs zone! Could be a nice role player for someone you take on day 3 but not a game changer.
 

Justthetippett

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Any late round fliers we can dream on? I keep running the PFF mock draft and one name that pops up in the 6th/7th round is Jadakiss Bonds from Hampton. 6’4”, 200lbs.

And I love Jakobi, but I’m 100% on board with reallocating those resources to other needs on the team.
 

ehaz

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Any late round fliers we can dream on? I keep running the PFF mock draft and one name that pops up in the 6th/7th round is Jadakiss Bonds from Hampton. 6’4”, 200lbs.

And I love Jakobi, but I’m 100% on board with reallocating those resources to other needs on the team.
No idea who that is but I have a 1st round grade on his name so I'm on board.
 

Cellar-Door

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Any late round fliers we can dream on? I keep running the PFF mock draft and one name that pops up in the 6th/7th round is Jadakiss Bonds from Hampton. 6’4”, 200lbs.

And I love Jakobi, but I’m 100% on board with reallocating those resources to other needs on the team.
I would have said Andrei Iosivas, but he appears to be skyrocketing up boards from the 5/6th to 3/4th.
 

JM3

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Any late round fliers we can dream on? I keep running the PFF mock draft and one name that pops up in the 6th/7th round is Jadakiss Bonds from Hampton. 6’4”, 200lbs.

And I love Jakobi, but I’m 100% on board with reallocating those resources to other needs on the team.
Was disappointed to find out he only has 1 "s" in his first name. Should help avoid beef with the feds & the DA, though.

I was going to suggest Ainias Smith, but saw he's going back to A&M. I kinda like Rakim Jarrett, if he slips.
 

j44thor

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Since he is playing in a few days and a UFA next season I'm rather surprised how underrated JuJu has been for his career. He is arguably the 3rd best WR out of the 17 class after Kupp and Godwin and still just 27YO with over 4K rec yards and 400 rec despite that he has never had a multi-yr deal signing 1yr deals each of the last 2yrs. If you can get him for 3/30 I think that would be a steal for a very solid #2 that can play every WR position.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Since he is playing in a few days and a UFA next season I'm rather surprised how underrated JuJu has been for his career. He is arguably the 3rd best WR out of the 17 class after Kupp and Godwin and still just 27YO with over 4K rec yards and 400 rec despite that he has never had a multi-yr deal signing 1yr deals each of the last 2yrs. If you can get him for 3/30 I think that would be a steal for a very solid #2 that can play every WR position.
The pendulum has swung a little on him. He was so overrated that he's become (a little) underrated.

People thought he may be a legit #1. He's not. But he's still a good WR.
 

BaseballJones

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Tyreek Hill: 5'10", 185 lbs, 4.29 40 time, electric playmaker
Marcus Jones: 5'8", 185 lbs, 4.28 40 time, electric playmaker

I'm not saying Jones is close to Hill as a receiver, because Hill is actually pretty polished and has years and years of experience doing that job, and had years of WR experience by the time he set foot in the pros. He's obviously an all-pro caliber WR. But Marcus Jones has excellent hands, otherworldly RAC ability, and, though 2 inches shorter, is sturdier than Hill (who is pretty rugged himself). Marcus is short but he's not SMALL, if you get my meaning.

I'd really, really love to see what this guy could do if offense was his primary occupation.
 

Bowser

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I'd really, really love to see what this guy could do if offense was his primary occupation.
I'm on record as supporting Jones' gradual transition to WR and made the same comparison to Hill in another thread. However, a minor correction: at the West Alabama pro day Hill measured 5'8"1/8, while Jones was 5'8" at the combine. Also, Hill is now 191 pounds. The Pats have Jones at 175. Hill is significantly thicker.

That aside, I completely agree with your broader point. Jones, to me, is much too good to be wasted at slot corner. He's special with the ball in his hands. He has great footwork and balance. His hands don't seem to be a problem. Moreover, his height will always limit his effectiveness as a CB. Jones is tiny, even for a slot corner. And slot WRs are getting bigger.

People will say (and have said) Jones can't run a full route tree. I'm not sure Hill is much of a route technician, actually. He separates, arguably, because of his speed, footwork, and balance. Jones has the physical skills. There's no reason to believe he can't learn to be an NFL WR just as Edelman did. Get her done, Theo.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tyreek Hill is and was even in college very very good at all the things and NFL WR needs to be good at, and those things are all really hard to do.
There is a long, long, list of guys who were fast and agile on defense, and a pretty long list of them who were good return specialists. Almost none of them transitioned to WR effectively. There is also a long list of guys with elite speed at WR who never made it as anything but kick returners. Honestly I think the list of kick returners who made pretty decent RBs is longer than KR/CB to WR.

Marcus Jones wasn't all that good at playing WR in college, one of the reasons they left him at CB at two different schools despite trying him out.
There is basically no reason to think he can play WR full time in the NFL, he's a great returner, with the upside to be a good slot corner, and occasional gadget play guy.
 

Bowser

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I take your point. In fact, I assumed there would be several high-profile NFL players who transitioned to WR besides Edelman. The list was short and unimpressive. I looked especially for the CB-to-WR conversion and discovered some who went in the opposite direction, but essentially none of the CB-to-WR variety.

However, I don't think it's fair to say Hill had proven to be very good as a WR during his college days. Here are his stats:

Oklahoma State (2014): 12 games, 31 receptions, 281 yards, 9.1 average, 3 TD ... 102 rushes, 534 yards, 5.2 average, 1 TD
West Alabama (2015): 11 games, 27 receptions, 444 yards, 16.44 average, 3 TD ... 25 rushes, 237 yards, 9.5 average, 1 TD

For the record, in Houston in 2021 Marcus Jones played 10 games, had 10 receptions for 109 yards, 10.9 average, and 1 TD. Hill had more production than Jones, but the vast majority of his highlights, at least from 2014, are of him doing things besides catching the ball. Hill was largely a track guy who returned kicks and punts -- 40 total at W Alabama, 57 at Oklahoma State. Beyond these skills, he was, I infer, a bit raw.

But anyway, yeah, the deck is stacked against Jones for sure.
 

Tangled Up In Red

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I don't know anything about NFL trade/draft capital, cap space, etc... But go get Khalil Shakir from Buffalo. He's brutally under-utilized there.
 

DJnVa

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I don't know anything about NFL trade/draft capital, cap space, etc... But go get Khalil Shakir from Buffalo. He's brutally under-utilized there.
He may be but he's making no money there, and that's important to Buffalo, so I can't see him moving him unless there are off the field issues.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The Bills are also not trading a guy after one year to the Patriots. I couldn't think of a bigger non-starter.
 

ehaz

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I know that Felger & Mazz rumor about Deebo Samuel was nonsensical because SF would be subject to like a $30M deadcap hit among other reasons, but what about Brandon Aiyuk? They're paying a lot of money to Deebo, CMC, and Kittle, perhaps Aiyuk's performance this year priced him out SF.

He's an excellent route runner and I think would be close to a perfect fit.
 

j44thor

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I know that Felger & Mazz rumor about Deebo Samuel was nonsensical because SF would be subject to like a $30M deadcap hit among other reasons, but what about Brandon Aiyuk? They're paying a lot of money to Deebo, CMC, and Kittle, perhaps Aiyuk's performance this year priced him out SF.

He's an excellent route runner and I think would be close to a perfect fit.
I don't think SF will be selling anyone at this point. They likely feel they are a healthy QB away from the SB and Aiyuk is their one true X receiver. They also wouldn't be able to replace him in the draft as this draft is bereft of X receivers.
 

Pesky Pole

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Allen Robinson is apparently on the trade block. Sounds like the Rams will eat some money as well. He hasn't been good for a couple of years so you'd have to think you could fix something.
 

BigSoxFan

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Allen Robinson is apparently on the trade block. Sounds like the Rams will eat some money as well. He hasn't been good for a couple of years so you'd have to think you could fix something.
He looked like he was dragging a tire on his routes last year. I think he might be toast but maybe he can be a 3/4 for a contender or something.
 

Pesky Pole

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You'd be hoping his broken foot late in the season happened earlier in the year and he couldn't play through it. Not exactly what we're going for here.

Even in his career years, he needed a ton of targets to get his stats. And his yards per target were sorta average.
 

Cellar-Door

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I loved Allen Robinson when he was bailing out bad QBs (one reason his YPT were always so low is he often led the league in uncatchable targets), but he's just not the same guy anymore, I'd say right now he's bascially an older (maybe slower)version of DaVante Parker, a big guy who can go up and get it on the boundary, but doesn't consistently create separation.
 

MillarTime

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Saw that Robert Woods was released recently. Not sure if he's cooked but may be worth kicking the tires as a Meyers replacement if we pay up for DHop or Cooks.
 

BigSoxFan

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The more I watch, the more I think the Pats should trade down a little and snag Flowers or Smith-Njigba. If Thornton can make a year 2 leap and you add one of them, you all of a sudden have an exciting group of WRs when balanced with some solid vets like Bourne, Parker, Meyers or similar guys, if some of them are gone next year.
 

Cellar-Door

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The more I watch, the more I think the Pats should trade down a little and snag Flowers or Smith-Njigba. If Thornton can make a year 2 leap and you add one of them, you all of a sudden have an exciting group of WRs when balanced with some solid vets like Bourne, Parker, Meyers or similar guys, if some of them are gone next year.
Depending who is on the board I'd be okay with a trade down for JSN (less so Flowers), but honestly I feel like this is the year to wait until the 2nd/3rd of WRs. I might honestly rather a trade down be to get a TE, this is a mediocre WR class and a top TE class.

Overall though, I think I'd pick OT or defense in the 1st and look to the best pass catcher left at 46 or 76
 

BigSoxFan

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Depending who is on the board I'd be okay with a trade down for JSN (less so Flowers), but honestly I feel like this is the year to wait until the 2nd/3rd of WRs. I might honestly rather a trade down be to get a TE, this is a mediocre WR class and a top TE class.

Overall though, I think I'd pick OT or defense in the 1st and look to the best pass catcher left at 46 or 76
Always depends on who’s there but I feel like Flowers and JSN are pretty “safe” plays in the first. I’m a huge Flowers fan so I’m biased there but I don’t know what concerns anyone would have with him outside of the size. He pretty much checks off everything else, especially his makeup. Just a really impressive kid.

It’s definitely not an easy call for BB to make nor do I expect a WR pick to be made in round 1. I’ve long admired Mayer so I wouldn’t be too upset if they went him.
 

GB5

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Not sure Njigba is going to be available in any sort of trade down situation.
 

Cellar-Door

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Always depends on who’s there but I feel like Flowers and JSN are pretty “safe” plays in the first. I’m a huge Flowers fan so I’m biased there but I don’t know what concerns anyone would have with him outside of the size. He pretty much checks off everything else, especially his makeup. Just a really impressive kid.

It’s definitely not an easy call for BB to make nor do I expect a WR pick to be made in round 1. I’ve long admired Mayer so I wouldn’t be too upset if they went him.
My thing is generally that I see JSN as a slot, and Flowers as a good #2 WR. Those are nice things to have, but I think you have starting Tackles, #1 CBs on the board. Just better value this year elsewhere. JSN is the one I can see a case for the most, I think he's a slot.... I also think there is a chance he's one of those rare guys who can be a true #1 from the slot. And that would be a nice fit for what BOB does on offense, filling the Edelman/Welker role.

Not sure Njigba is going to be available in any sort of trade down situation.
Then you don't draft him. JSN may end up a star, but there's a reason people like Brugler are talking about how we might not see a WR go in the top 20.... there is no clearcut stud in this draft after 2 years of monster draft classes at WR. I like JSN a lot, I can't see drafting him as a top 10 non-QB player. If we stay at 14 you're looking at one of the guys like: Witherspoon, Smith, Wilson, GOnzales, Johnson, etc. likely to be there

Unless it's a QB, drafting on perceived need in the 1st is usually a mistake.
 

Super Nomario

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My thing is generally that I see JSN as a slot, and Flowers as a good #2 WR. Those are nice things to have, but I think you have starting Tackles, #1 CBs on the board. Just better value this year elsewhere. JSN is the one I can see a case for the most, I think he's a slot.... I also think there is a chance he's one of those rare guys who can be a true #1 from the slot. And that would be a nice fit for what BOB does on offense, filling the Edelman/Welker role.


Then you don't draft him. JSN may end up a star, but there's a reason people like Brugler are talking about how we might not see a WR go in the top 20.... there is no clearcut stud in this draft after 2 years of monster draft classes at WR.

Unless it's a QB, drafting on perceived need in the 1st is usually a mistake.
Drafting a QB for need in the first is usually a mistake too. :)
 

Cellar-Door

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Drafting a QB for need in the first is usually a mistake too. :)
Nah, if you need a QB you're going nowhere, so you might as well take a shot. QBs in the 1st don't have a great hit rate, but QBs outside the 1st have a horrific hit rate. The value of anything but a complete bust is high, and if you bust.. oh well, you weren't going to be good without a QB anyway.
 

SMU_Sox

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JSN chat? I don’t think it’s a secret JSN has been my WR1 since I got done with the WRs. I don’t usually say guys are locks but if I had to pick one WR this year who I am the most confident will give you 850+ yards a season (so 50 yards a game) it would be him. He’s the best route runner in the class. He has exceptional hands and body control. He is incredibly twitched up and sudden. He just doesn’t have great long speed and primarily played in the slot. He already runs a wide variety of routes too. Oh and his RAC/YAC is fantastic too. It’s hard for me to see a guy who already runs routes better than a lot of NFL pros, including option routes that leave guys in the dust, failing. His route running is so nuanced that not only can he do the intermediate stuff and knows all the tricks in the book but you can see him start playing with corners heads and setting them up with his previous deception. Like he will use a nice jab step to set up a dig. Right so then next time he does that same jab step and shoulder fake to look like he’s going to run the dig again, waits for the corner to break and cuts upfield into a go route or a corner or whatever. It is a clinic. It’s like watching an artist. There are a lot of guys I love in this draft class. I am passionate about a bunch of guys at 14. JSN is absolutely one of them.

He also is so good at knowing where the ball will be to make sure he catches it in stride while also using his route and his pacing and deception to make sure he can influence defenders away from him to set up RAC. Did I mention I freaking love this guy?
 
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JSN chat? I don’t think it’s a secret JSN has been my WR1 since I got done with the WRs. I don’t usually say guys are locks but if I had to pick one WR this year who I am the most confident will give you 850+ yards a season (so 50 yards a game) it would be him. He’s the best route runner in the class. He has exceptional hands and body control. He is incredibly twitched up and sudden. He just doesn’t have great long speed and primarily played in the slot. He already runs a wide variety of routes too. Oh and his RAC/YAC is fantastic too. It’s hard for me to see a guy who already runs routes better than a lot of NFL pros, including option routes that leave guys in the dust, failing. His route running is so nuanced that not only can he do the intermediate stuff and knows all the tricks in the book but you can see him start playing with corners heads and setting them up with his previous deception. Like he will use a nice jab step to set up a dig. Right so then next time he does that same jab step and shoulder fake to look like he’s going to run the dig again, waits for the corner to break and cuts upfield into a go route or a corner or whatever. It is a clinic. It’s like watching an artist. There are a lot of guys I love in this draft class. I am passionate about a bunch of guys at 14. JSN is absolutely one of them.

He also is so good at knowing where the ball will be to make sure he catches it in stride while also using his route and his pacing and deception to make sure he can influence defenders away from him to set up RAC. Did I mention I freaking love this guy?
Between you and Evan Lazar, I just want the Pats to grab this guy at 14 and do whatever else with the rest of their draft. CB, OL, CB, OL, that Michigan kicker and whatever else.
 

j44thor

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One interesting name in FA is Ashton Duhlin, only 25 and came into the league as a developmental size/speed small school prospect, had a hot start in IND then got injured and lost reps to Alec Pierce. His lack of production should make him close to free and small school size/speed prospects rarely hit but I'd rather take a low risk chance on a lottery ticket than spend a few nickels on a well past their prime retread like Woods or Arob to fill out the WR room. Duhlin was also a prolific return man in college giving you some Marcus Jones insurance.
 

DJnVa

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The question is cost. If he’s cheaper than Meyers may be worth allocating those savings elsewhere.
He's definitely going to be cheaper than the contract Meyers signs. He's 33 and likely in decline. He should not be too expensive, but he should also not be thought of as a real solution. If he's the only WR they bring in that would be disappointing.
 

j44thor

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I think Thielen's #s are a bit deceptive because you have to factor in the JJett effect. I think a large part of his "getting open" effectiveness has a lot more to do with Jefferson demanding consistent double teams and Hockenson demanding more attention than Thielen last season. If he was truly getting open you would expect more YAC effectiveness versus he is being left alone and tackled after catching it.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just want Thielen to sign with the Pats so BB can cut him. But have to imagine that he's a depth piece now and will be looking for a better "win now" situation.
 

ehaz

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JSN chat? I don’t think it’s a secret JSN has been my WR1 since I got done with the WRs. I don’t usually say guys are locks but if I had to pick one WR this year who I am the most confident will give you 850+ yards a season (so 50 yards a game) it would be him. He’s the best route runner in the class. He has exceptional hands and body control. He is incredibly twitched up and sudden. He just doesn’t have great long speed and primarily played in the slot. He already runs a wide variety of routes too. Oh and his RAC/YAC is fantastic too. It’s hard for me to see a guy who already runs routes better than a lot of NFL pros, including option routes that leave guys in the dust, failing. His route running is so nuanced that not only can he do the intermediate stuff and knows all the tricks in the book but you can see him start playing with corners heads and setting them up with his previous deception. Like he will use a nice jab step to set up a dig. Right so then next time he does that same jab step and shoulder fake to look like he’s going to run the dig again, waits for the corner to break and cuts upfield into a go route or a corner or whatever. It is a clinic. It’s like watching an artist. There are a lot of guys I love in this draft class. I am passionate about a bunch of guys at 14. JSN is absolutely one of them.

He also is so good at knowing where the ball will be to make sure he catches it in stride while also using his route and his pacing and deception to make sure he can influence defenders away from him to set up RAC. Did I mention I freaking love this guy?
I’m beginning to think he won’t make it to 14 but he’s my pick. I saw a video of JSN somewhere on Twitter of him running a hoss juke variation. You’re not going to find a receiver like him on the free agent or trade market. Hopkins—but wrong side of 30 + will cost #46 and $20M of cap space is your best trade option. You should be able to find a right tackle in free agency for $16-$18M.

We can’t run it back with Meyers/Henry/Parker/Thornton but + BOB and a tackle upgrade. You’ve got to give Mac something to work with that isn’t a bottom 3 receiver room in the NFL this year to properly assess him.