OK. Bumping the thread, even though we have the poll thread going on.
As of today, 4 games out of the WC 3 spot, with BAL, CLE, and CWS between them and the spot. (WC2 and WC3 is currently held by TBR/SEA, depending on what the tiebreaker would be between them.) They need to win 5 games more than BAL, CLE, CWS, TBR/SEA. They'll have 52 game to do that in.
A reasonable target? TBR/SEA are currently 7 games above .500 at a .533 WP - that's an 86 win pace, and they'd finish at 11 games above .500.
For back of the envelope purposes, say Boston needs 87 wins to be in the mix.
Yes, I know that does not take into strength of schedule for the other teams. That means 12 games above .500, and they're currently 1 below.
I think it might be useful to view the rest of our schedule (after today's game) in the following chunks.
Chunk 1:
Day off
Home: 2 ATL, 1 BAL, 3 NYY.
Day off
Road: 3 @ PIT, 3 @ BAL.
I'll pause here. That's 12 games. The final BAL game in this stretch is game number 122 (40 left.) PIT is a weak team, and BAL is the easiest AL East foe to handle and a direct WC rival. How many do they need to win here? I'm guessing they need to take 1 from ATL, 2 or ideally 3 from BAL, 1 or 2 from NYY and 3 from PIT to stay even or gain ground? 7-5. Perhaps doable if they win all 3 PIT games. (That's 1 game above .500.)
***
Chunk 2:
A day off followed by a lot of flip-flop travel:
3 TOR, 3 TBR, 3 @ MIN, 3 TEX, 3 @ TBR.
Then a day off.
This is another 12 game stretch, featuring 9 games against WC opponents. The final TBR game is game number 138. (24 games left.)
Hopefully they'll have some reinforcements by this time, Fenway-Hosmer? Story? Strahm? Good-Barnes? Back on track Pivetta and Eovaldi? While they have to win prior to Chunk 2, I think those games may not be so uneven as they seem now. . .provided we get those reinforcements. But they need to do well here. (At least 2 games above .500, bringing them to 3 up.)
***
Chunk 3:
Staccato:
3 @ BAL, a day off, 2 NYY, a day off, 3 KC, a day off.
This is a shorter chunk - only 8 games. But I think they'll likely have played themselves in or out of the mix by the beginning of this one. Again, BAL and KC are teams they can win against, especially with a theoretical healthy line-up. The final game is game number 146. (16 games left.) If they split NYY, win 2 out 3 v. BAL or KC, and sweep the other. . .4 above .500, bringing them to 7 up.
***
Chunk 4:
Final meatgrinder:
2 @ CIN, 4 @ NYY, 4 BAL, 3 @ TOR, 3 TBR.
It's sort of an arbitrary division, but they do get that off day on the road between KC and CIN. Obviously the travel does not favor them, and 10 games of this 16 game stretch are against NYY, TBR and TOR - with Houck and Crawford choosing to sit out the three TOR games.
If they go .500 against NYY, TBR, and TOR, could we go 6 above .500 by sweeping CIN and BAL? Sure - I think it's a possibility if the team's healthy. That's 13 games over .500 and in the mix on the last day.
***
Overall, they have the most control over BAL - 11 games to play (but they have to crush them - not an easy feat this year.) They have 9 against TBR, 4 against CLE, and 0 against CWS.
In terms of other teams that may tumble into contention for the last WC spot, Boston has 4 games left against MIN and 6 against TOR.
So, I don't think it's crazy that they might get in - with the caveat that they turn on the afterburners right now.
I do think it's unlikely though.