How to get back in this thing

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ah gotcha. They are 48-46. I think you have to win 6 or 7 of the next 10 to really consider buying. Ultimately, I suspect the approach may be to do a bit of both; buying players who aren’t rentals, selling players who are. Trying to fill some of the holes for next year now by using expiring contracts.
 

chawson

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I think we're still comfortably "in this thing" even if we win just 4 or 5 of the next 10. The Mariners are about to play some very tough series, two apiece against the Yankees, Astros and Angels through August 10. They won't continue playing at a .900 pace. The Rays and Blue Jays play each other 11 more times. There's still a lot of time. I'd suggest winning a few against Cleveland though.
 

LogansDad

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I think we're still comfortably "in this thing" even if we win just 4 or 5 of the next 10. The Mariners are about to play some very tough series, two apiece against the Yankees, Astros and Angels through August 10. They won't continue playing at a .900 pace. The Rays and Blue Jays play each other 11 more times. There's still a lot of time. I'd suggest winning a few against Cleveland though.
Cleveland has won 8 of 10 and are playing well lately. They aren't the pushover they were a month ago.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think we're still comfortably "in this thing" even if we win just 4 or 5 of the next 10. The Mariners are about to play some very tough series, two apiece against the Yankees, Astros and Angels through August 10. They won't continue playing at a .900 pace. The Rays and Blue Jays play each other 11 more times. There's still a lot of time. I'd suggest winning a few against Cleveland though.
Angels?
 

BaseballJones

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First 29 games: 10-19 (.345)
Next 44 games: 32-12 (.727)
Last 21 games: 6-15 (.286)
TOTAL: 48-47 (.505)

In the AL East: 12-28 (.300)
Vs all other teams: 36-19 (.654)

After tomorrow, they get 16 straight against non-AL East opponents. Unfortunately, they'll be doing it with a lot of guys out of action.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well, we should do a bump again, as we stand thusly:

Since the ASB, 1-5, with 5 games left before the trade deadline:
TOR L​
TOR L​
TOR L​
CLE W​
CLE L​
CLE L​
CLE​
MIL​
MIL​
MIL​
@HOU​
(Trade Deadline 6pm) @HOU 8pm​

Our position in the Wild Card standings is:
TOR E 54 44 +1.0 --​
SEA W 54 45 +0.5 --​
TBR E 53 45 -- --​
CLE C 50 47 2.5 62​
CHW C 49 49 4.0 60​
BAL E 49 49 4.0 60​
BOS E 49 50 4.5 59​

So we're fighting 4 other teams for a WC3 spot. You could view it as a 63 game season where we begin with a 0.5 game handicap against two teams (BAL/CHW), a 2 game handicap against one team (CLE), and a 4.5 game handicap on the last (TBR).

Head to head games remaining: BAL 11, TBR 9 , CLE 1, CHW 0.

Technically, still very much in it. Even with the difficult finishing schedule.

However, if we go 0-4 by the trading deadline and everyone else plays .500 ball, those handicaps could more like 2.5, 4, and 6.5. With 57 games left. Not impossible, but I would rate their chances as in the "this requires an epic comeback" category.

Edited to account for trade deadline of 6pm, with the game on Aug 2 starting at 8.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Well, we should do a bump again, as we stand thusly:

Since the ASB, 1-5, with 6 games left before the trade deadline:
TOR L​
TOR L​
TOR L​
CLE W​
CLE L​
CLE L​
CLE​
MIL​
MIL​
MIL​
@HOU​
@HOU (Trade Deadline)​

Our position in the Wild Card standings is:
TOR E 54 44 +1.0 --​
SEA W 54 45 +0.5 --​
TBR E 53 45 -- --​
CLE C 50 47 2.5 62​
CHW C 49 49 4.0 60​
BAL E 49 49 4.0 60​
BOS E 49 50 4.5 59​

So we're fighting 4 other teams for a WC3 spot. You could view it as a 63 game season where we begin with a 0.5 game handicap against two teams (BAL/CHW), a 2 game handicap against one team (CLE), and a 4.5 game handicap on the last (TBR).

Head to head games remaining: BAL 11, TBR 9 , CLE 1, CHW 0.

Technically, still very much in it. Even with the difficult finishing schedule.

However, if we go another 1-5 by the trading deadline and everyone else plays .500 ball, those handicaps could more like 3.5, 5, and 7.5. With 57 games left. Not impossible, but I would rate their chances as in the "this requires an epic comeback" category.
Sorry to nitpick: I think there's only 5 games left before the deadline. The Tuesday game won't be over until the deadline passes.
 

jon abbey

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Also it's not a 5 way race for one spot, it is a 7 way race for 3 spots (with an eye on MIN possibly falling back).
 

Ganthem

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Since the Sox got steamrolled by the Yanks and Rays they have been dead. It is time to sell and build towards next year. In fact I will say it. The Sox are going to be around 100 wins next year.
 

moondog80

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Mildly surprised to see the Sox at 21.6% to make the playoffs on Fangraphs. That's not nothing.

One thing to consider with the trade deadline is that Xander, JDM, and maybe Eovaldi would be worthy of a QO if we hang onto them.
 

Rovin Romine

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Sorry to nitpick: I think there's only 5 games left before the deadline. The Tuesday game won't be over until the deadline passes.
Good point. What time is the deadline?

Also it's not a 5 way race for one spot, it is a 7 way race for 3 spots (with an eye on MIN possibly falling back).
While this is true, for the forseeable future, 5 teams will be fighting for the WC3 spot. If one slips down, or another vaults forward, there will still be 5 - at least until one clearly falls out of the scrum. That was what I was trying to convey.
 

jon abbey

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While this is true, for the forseeable future, 5 teams will be fighting for the WC3 spot. If one slips down, or another vaults forward, there will still be 5 - at least until one clearly falls out of the scrum. That was what I was trying to convey.
And what I am trying to convey is that what you are trying to convey doesn't make much sense. TOR and SEA are barely ahead of TB, it is a seven team race for three spots.
 

BaseballJones

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And what I am trying to convey is that what you are trying to convey doesn't make much sense. TOR and SEA are barely ahead of TB, it is a seven team race for three spots.
This is correct. I mean, if Boston was in first place (for the WC) by that slim margin, we'd absolutely not think they're IN, but rather that they'd have the current edge in the WC race that wouldn't be finally decided for a long time still.
 

jon abbey

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How many teams do the Sox have to play better than to secure a post-season berth?
Why do you continue to argue points you are clearly wrong about? Is it some kind of lawyer exercise thing? It's fucking infuriating.
 

Rovin Romine

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Why do you continue to argue points you are clearly wrong about? Is it some kind of lawyer exercise thing? It's fucking infuriating.
It's not meant to be. Both views are correct.

I acknowledged there are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots.

You can't seem to acknowledge the top two spots are fungible. To make the post season the sox have to play better than 4 teams. It does not matter which 4. 5 teams are fighting for the WC3 spot.

Should I speculate where you're coming from? Like your profession or something? Is that what we're doing here now?
 

jon abbey

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It's not meant to be. Both views are correct.

I acknowledged there are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots.

You can't seem to acknowledge the top two spots are fungible. To make the post season the sox have to play better than 4 teams. It does not matter which 4. 5 teams are fighting for the WC3 spot.

Should I speculate where you're coming from? Like your profession or something? Is that what we're doing here now?
I was aiming for simple common sense, 7 teams are fighting for the three wild card spots. 5 teams are not fighting for the last wild card spot, that makes no sense no matter how you try to explain it.
 

jon abbey

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(FWIW, I am an experimental music producer with something of a professional background in sports stats, at Time Magazine and briefly for NBC during the 2008 Olympics. My younger brother has done sports stats professionally for NBC for 30+ years and you know where he got it from. :) )
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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(FWIW, I am an experimental music producer with something of a professional background in sports stats, at Time Magazine and briefly for NBC during the 2008 Olympics. My younger brother has done sports stats professionally for NBC for 30+ years and you know where he got it from. :) )
So you do experimental producing?
 

E5 Yaz

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(FWIW, I am an experimental music producer with something of a professional background in sports stats, at Time Magazine and briefly for NBC during the 2008 Olympics. My younger brother has done sports stats professionally for NBC for 30+ years and you know where he got it from. :) )
You fathered your younger brother?
 

Ganthem

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This is fasci

This is fascianting! Talk about knocking down boundaries and preconceived notions. The beauty of music. Like jazz on mushrooms.
All music is beautiful while on mushrooms. Or so I hear. From a friend. Actually a friend of a friend.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well, last night's win is a step in the right direction.

We also have a lot of rumbling from the Sox FO that trends towards them being buyers not sellers. . .or at least not entirely giving up on the season.

They're now 3.5 games back from the WC3 spot. The scrum tightened for a day.

At this moment, I think we just have to see how the trade deadline plays out. We'll know by Tuesday what the lay of the land is, and, accordingly, what the schedule looks like.
 

Rovin Romine

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Weekend bump: despite crappy play on our part the WC scrum has tightened since the last post.

Sox are still at the bottom of the WC3 scrum, but are 3.5 games from the #3 spot out instead of 4.5.

Since the ASB, 2-6, with 3 games left before the trade deadline:
TOR L​
TOR L​
TOR L​
CLE W​
CLE L​
CLE L​
CLE W​
MIL L​
MIL​
MIL​
@HOU​
(Trade Deadline 6pm) @HOU 8pm​

61 games left overall. WC teams Head to head games remaining: BAL 11, TBR 9 , TOR 6, MIN 3, CHW 0, CLE 0, SEA 0.
 
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Kenny F'ing Powers

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This is all so stupid. The team should be selling off everything it can. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, is there any expectation for them to actually make noise? Getting a token playoff spot shouldn't be the priority here.
 

sezwho

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This is all so stupid. The team should be selling off everything it can. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, is there any expectation for them to actually make noise? Getting a token playoff spot shouldn't be the priority here.
I want to agree, but as has been noted you don’t need to be good to win a playoff series, just a little lucky. 7 games of baseball is more random walk as the top seeds don’t really outperform bottom seeds.

I’m really hoping this proves false as more (worse) WC teams get the chance to ‘show what they got’ or else a bunch of smart GMs are going to shoot forcheap teamsplaying just over 500…because why not?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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This is all so stupid. The team should be selling off everything it can. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, is there any expectation for them to actually make noise? Getting a token playoff spot shouldn't be the priority here.
What if CHRIS SALE comes back for the playoffs? And Devers is healthy and Story has his BBQ? Do they have a chance then?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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What if CHRIS SALE comes back for the playoffs? And Devers is healthy and Story has his BBQ? Do they have a chance then?
Asston of if’s. But add a healthy Eovaldi and maybe Josh Bell…. Then they can compete.
As currently constructed??? Hahaha!!!
Edit- and an OF’er. Verdugo, etc just isn’t going to cut it. Franchy is not good. JBJ should be a late innings replacement. Duran is struggling and may not (needs more time) be an actual ML’er.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It seems quite likely that we don’t see Sale, Story, Hernandez, Paxton, Taylor, or Danish the rest of the way - right? “Anything can happen in a short series” is not a compelling reason to trade for short term help. Team would need to win at a 62% clip or so the rest of the way to have a legit shot; given the schedule that seems really really unlikely. Sell everyone not in the teams future plans, and get a better draft pick for next year.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Asston of if’s. But add a healthy Eovaldi and maybe Josh Bell…. Then they can compete.
As currently constructed??? Hahaha!!!
Edit- and an OF’er. Verdugo, etc just isn’t going to cut it. Franchy is not good. JBJ should be a late innings replacement. Duran is struggling and may not (needs more time) be an actual ML’er.
My reply was in regard to KFP’s “no chance” claim. Of course the team we have seen the oat two/three weeks is not a contender. But what we saw in June was a Best Case Scenario. So it *can* happen.

I wouldn’t bet on it. But that is the right reply to the No Chance Crew.
 

E5 Yaz

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This is all so stupid. The team should be selling off everything it can. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, is there any expectation for them to actually make noise? Getting a token playoff spot shouldn't be the priority here.
This is where I find myself. The chances of a magical run seem so remote, given what we've seen, that not trading off FA2B will seem more like a missed opportunity with each passing game.
Could they right the ship? Sure, but even a first-round exit is going to feel like a mistake should Vaz, JD, and Eovaldi (and X*) leave in the offseason.
 

amfox1

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What if CHRIS SALE comes back for the playoffs? And Devers is healthy and Story has his BBQ? Do they have a chance then?
In a best-of-three series all on the road, of course there's a chance. Odds are low, however, and there's no benefit of home playoff games (and playoff ticket income) unless they win the WC round.

Given that, the long-term best interests of the organization should be to (1) get below the luxury tax threshold, (2) develop young talent by playing them in the last third of the season and (3) acquire additional young talent through trades and comp picks.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is all so stupid. The team should be selling off everything it can. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, is there any expectation for them to actually make noise? Getting a token playoff spot shouldn't be the priority here.
Yes, considering the 1st round is only 3 games. But any team in the playoffs has a punchers chance at winning the WS. It's not the NBA.