How to get back in this thing

jon abbey

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Can you elaborate on this?
Do you mean that it would be better for the Red Sox to face the division winner with the worst record at home rather than face one of the Rays or Toronto? While I might be inclined to agree, the first wild card would face the second wild card at home. That seems like a much bigger advantage than seeing the division winner from the Central (assuming that this would be the division winner with the worst record as has been true in recent history).
One side of the draw is the best division winner vs the winner of the top two wild cards, the other side is the second division winner vs the winner of the third division winner vs the third wild card. To me (and what VORP meant) is that the road to the ALCS seems much easier from the 6 spot than the 4 or 5, even given the home field advantage that the 4 will get initially.

Edit: So right now it would be:

NY vs winner of TOR/TB
HOU vs winner of MIN/CLE (BOS bumps CLE if CLE loses today)
 

tims4wins

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Can you elaborate on this?
Do you mean that it would be better for the Red Sox to face the division winner with the worst record at home rather than face one of the Rays or Toronto? While I might be inclined to agree, the first wild card would face the second wild card at home. That seems like a much bigger advantage than seeing the division winner from the Central (assuming that this would be the division winner with the worst record as has been true in recent history).

Also, It's a bit silly to be projecting which wild card the Red Sox will be at this point in the season. Proximity to, and whether they are or not in a Wild Card spot is relevant as it relates to their ability to be in contention for the playoffs. Until we know what matchups are, however, proclaiming the 3rd spot the best is premature.
The WC winner will also face the MFY. So you’d avoid ALL other AL East teams until the ALCS. There is basically zero argument for WC 1 or 2 as better position to WC 3.
 

Rovin Romine

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The WC winner will also face the MFY. So you’d avoid ALL other AL East teams until the ALCS. There is basically zero argument for WC 1 or 2 as better position to WC 3.
But it's worth noting that aiming for WC3 isn't something you'd ever try to do. If another club is within a handful of games, you never know if you might have a freak losing jag, etc.

We finish with 3 @ TOR (personal choice) and 3 at home v. TBR.

They'd happily shiv us if it was to their advantage.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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This was maybe discussed and I missed it, but why has Cleveland played ~5 fewer games than everyone else? Just a quirk of the schedule? Weather-related bad luck?
 

jon abbey

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But it's worth noting that aiming for WC3 isn't something you'd ever try to do. If another club is within a handful of games, you never know if you might have a freak losing jag, etc.

We finish with 3 @ TOR (personal choice) and 3 at home v. TBR.

They'd happily shiv us if it was to their advantage.
CLE amazingly finishes with a six game home series against KC.
 

scottyno

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But it's worth noting that aiming for WC3 isn't something you'd ever try to do. If another club is within a handful of games, you never know if you might have a freak losing jag, etc.

We finish with 3 @ TOR (personal choice) and 3 at home v. TBR.

They'd happily shiv us if it was to their advantage.
If Toronto and Tampa have their spots locked in by then they won't be playing their full A lineups, they'd care way more about being healthy with a set rotation for the playoffs than knocking the Sox out of the other side of the bracket. If it's close enough where the Sox could potentially pass one of them for WC2 then it could be really interesting if the teams try to "out tank" each other to get the easier side.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Since starting out at 10-19, the team is 30-12 - playing at a 115 win pace over that span. In their last 22, they're 18-4, which is a 133 win pace.
 

BaseballJones

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Now 31-12 (.721), which is a 117 win pace, since starting out 10-19. And to your point, @Hank Scorpio, in the last 23, now 19-4 (.826), which is a 134 win pace. LOL.

Safe to say they're "back in this thing".
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pretty remarkable considering half the lineup still isn't hitting, though there have been some adjustments made.

Another league average bat would go a long way.
 

YTF

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Pretty remarkable considering half the lineup still isn't hitting, though there have been some adjustments made.

Another league average bat would go a long way.
Seriously? I guess YMMV, but I feel this past two weeks has seen the best stretch of total team hitting that we have seen all season. It seems that everyone has been getting in on the act. The 1-6 spots in the lineup has finally shown to be as good if not better than we expected them to be and the 7-9 slots are no longer 3 automatic outs. Vaz is hitting .277, Franchy has a new found discipline at the plate that sees him on base more and JBJ has been on one of his productive streaks. I guess you might point to the overall BA's of a couple of guys, but that doesn't really speak to "half of the lineup STILL not hitting.
 

YTF

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Pretty remarkable considering half the lineup still isn't hitting, though there have been some adjustments made.

Another league average bat would go a long way.
Seriously? I guess YMMV, but I feel this past two weeks has seen the best stretch of total team hitting that we have seen all season. It seems that everyone has been getting in on the act. The 1-6 spots in the lineup has finally shown to be as good if not better than we expected them to be and the 7-9 slots are no longer 3 automatic outs. Vaz is hitting .277, Franchy has a new found discipline at the plate that sees him on base more and JBJ has been on one of his productive streaks. I guess you might point to the overall BA's of a couple of guys, but that doesn't really speak to "half of the lineup STILL not hitting.
Your post in the Franchy thread tells me that my observations do not hold up to the numbers you've presented. Thanks for the your efforts.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Seriously? I guess YMMV, but I feel this past two weeks has seen the best stretch of total team hitting that we have seen all season. It seems that everyone has been getting in on the act. The 1-6 spots in the lineup has finally shown to be as good if not better than we expected them to be and the 7-9 slots are no longer 3 automatic outs. Vaz is hitting .277, Franchy has a new found discipline at the plate that sees him on base more and JBJ has been on one of his productive streaks. I guess you might point to the overall BA's of a couple of guys, but that doesn't really speak to "half of the lineup STILL not hitting.
I agree almost entirely, but JBJ is 0 for his last 18. I’d say pretty much everyone has been hitting, including bench guys, other than JBJand Dalbec
 

scottyno

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I agree almost entirely, but JBJ is 0 for his last 18. I’d say pretty much everyone has been hitting, including bench guys, other than JBJand Dalbec
Dalbec has had a rough few weeks, but he was a league average hitter in May and has been a league average hitter in June. He's been adequate for almost 2 months now.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Dalbec has had a rough few weeks, but he was a league average hitter in May and has been a league average hitter in June. He's been adequate for almost 2 months now.
Fair. I just have a vendetta against him because I have an irrational love for Franchy. OPS+ of 102 in May and 99 in June, though, so really everyone other than JBJ has been hitting
 

scottyno

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Fair. I just have a vendetta against him because I have an irrational love for Franchy. OPS+ of 102 in May and 99 in June, though, so really everyone other than JBJ has been hitting
Yeah JBJ makes no sense

37 sOPS+ in April
106 in May
41 in June

July could be 125 or 25, and they're probably equally likely, who the fuck knows.
 

BaseballJones

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Replace JBJ with Kiké and that would do the trick.
2022 stats

JBJ: .215/.268/.307/.575, 60 ops+
Kiké: .209/.273/.340/.613, 70 ops+

A slight improvement, but not close to league average. Not so far this year at least.

Though I would agree that for their careers, Hernandez is a better hitter: 97 career ops+ for Kiké, 85 for JBJ.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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At least JBJ is hitting at Fenway, where his defense is especially important. (777 OPS vs 375 away; about 110 PAs for each).
His home/away splits are wild. 112 wRC+ at home, 10 away. Partially because he has a .354 BABIP at home vs. .182 away, but a lot of that is because he has dramatically different batted ball profiles. He hits way more line drives and way fewer ground balls at home, and hits the ball harder much more often. Is that just SSS noise? Or is there some other reason for that?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Your post in the Franchy thread tells me that my observations do not hold up to the numbers you've presented. Thanks for the your efforts.
Been ok since. To be fair, I said half the lineup wasn't hitting but adjustments were being made. Verdugo returning to form and Cordero, Refsnyder and Duran producing with Dalbec being league average since May, there aren't as many holes and it's possible there's no real reason to upgrade the offense once everyone is healthy. There are 6 lineup spots producing at an average to above average level. 7 would be more to my liking, 8 is being greedy.

I think a league average bat would still go a long way, but it's possible they have that in house with one of or a combo of Cordero/Ref/Duran.. If they can get a bat on the cheap, I'd be for it but they should probably use resources to acquire a very good to dominant bullpen guy as long as the price isn't too outlandish. They may have that in house too but they are currently letting their starters start until they fail.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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View: https://twitter.com/buster_espn/status/1544293658421338113?s=21&t=cit0gb77v8T8SdasQEe2GQ


It'll be interesting to see if the Astros run down the Yankees for best record in the AL. NY currently has a 5 1/2 game lead, but the Astros have by far the easiest remaining schedule among AL contenders, as @PaulHembo notes. Red Sox have the toughest remaining schedule, by far.
At some point, not having half of our pitching staff and our top SPs is gonna bite us. Starting this week, probably.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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At some point, not having half of our pitching staff and our top SPs is gonna bite us. Starting this week, probably.
I mean, they went 2-4 against the Cubs and Jays, with the two wins coming in extras after the bullpen blew the first save opportunity. In the case of the Toronto win, the bullpen still nearly gave up a three-run lead. They dominated Tampa yesterday at home, but I think we're already seeing some recently-patched cracks opening back up. And while the Duran issue will be a non-factor next time they go north, there are still three arms on their staff, one of whom is the guy who threw a shutout yesterday, who won't be going with them, barring a sudden change of mind or reversal of restrictions. If anyone thinks that final series in Toronto won't be pivotal, I'd be surprised.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean, they went 2-4 against the Cubs and Jays, with the two wins coming in extras after the bullpen blew the first save opportunity. In the case of the Toronto win, the bullpen still nearly gave up a three-run lead. They dominated Tampa yesterday at home, but I think we're already seeing some recently-patched cracks opening back up. And while the Duran issue will be a non-factor next time they go north, there are still three arms on their staff, one of whom is the guy who threw a shutout yesterday, who won't be going with them, barring a sudden change of mind or reversal of restrictions. If anyone thinks that final series in Toronto won't be pivotal, I'd be surprised.
Pivotal for what, do you think? For a spot in the playoffs? For standings/seedings?
 

Van Everyman

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For respect.

Everyone knows that this next stretch is going to be way more pivotal than anything else this season. If the Red Sox can manage to get through it in one piece, that says a lot about the character and depth of the team on offense and defense.

The Toronto stuff is largely overblown because a lot of us, myself included are a bit emotional about the vaccination issue and because they are a division rival. But anybody who watched those three games would be stretching it to come away with the belief that there was a juggernaut sitting in the opposing team’s dugout.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Pivotal for what, do you think? For a spot in the playoffs? For standings/seedings?
If this team is going to, against all odds, contend for a playoff spot, then it will be both. Of course, if they fall off the pace, it'll just just another series as they're playing out the string.

And, apologies, I missed an important qualifier in that post you quoted, so I'll rephrase: if anyone who thinks they are going to make the playoffs thinks that last series in Toronto doesn't think that last series will be pivotal, I'd be surprised.

Given their schedule and unaddressed-to-this-point issues, I'm not in that camp. But stranger things have happened, I suppose. In terms of the theme of this thread, though, yeah, that is going to be a pivotal series if they are still in this thing by the time it rolls around.
 

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If this team is going to, against all odds, contend for a playoff spot, then it will be both. Of course, if they fall off the pace, it'll just just another series as they're playing out the string.
Yeah, I don't think their contending for a playoff spot is against all odds. In fact, I'm pretty sure it isn't against any odds.
 

BringBackMo

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If this team is going to, against all odds, contend for a playoff spot, then it will be both. Of course, if they fall off the pace, it'll just just another series as they're playing out the string.

And, apologies, I missed an important qualifier in that post you quoted, so I'll rephrase: if anyone who thinks they are going to make the playoffs thinks that last series in Toronto doesn't think that last series will be pivotal, I'd be surprised.

Given their schedule and unaddressed-to-this-point issues, I'm not in that camp. But stranger things have happened, I suppose. In terms of the theme of this thread, though, yeah, that is going to be a pivotal series if they are still in this thing by the time it rolls around.
LOL
 

Zupcic Fan

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Just a quick thought for anyone who was watching the Cub series and posting stuff like “ Losing two games to this awful team is inexcusable!” Well, it’s all relative. Let’s just look at our main wild card rivals just yesterday: Cleveland lost two to the Tigers, Toronto lost 5-1 to an Oakland team that’s like 90 games under .500 and Tampa got two hits off of a team that had to pitch Cutter Crawford etc. yes, the Red Sox have real weaknesses. So does every other team except theYankees and Houston. And on their websites they are probably also bitching about the manager, general manager, awful at bats, moronic base running etc. good teams lose to bad teams. I mean the Pirates swept the Dodgers in Dodger stadium this year
 

Jason Bae

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Just a quick thought for anyone who was watching the Cub series and posting stuff like “ Losing two games to this awful team is inexcusable!” Well, it’s all relative. Let’s just look at our main wild card rivals just yesterday: Cleveland lost two to the Tigers, Toronto lost 5-1 to an Oakland team that’s like 90 games under .500 and Tampa got two hits off of a team that had to pitch Cutter Crawford etc. yes, the Red Sox have real weaknesses. So does every other team except theYankees and Houston. And on their websites they are probably also bitching about the manager, general manager, awful at bats, moronic base running etc. good teams lose to bad teams. I mean the Pirates swept the Dodgers in Dodger stadium this year
Seriously.

I'm surrounded by Yankees fans and I feel like all I hear about is how they struggle with Houston or the fact that they're hitting .238 as a team, nevermind that they're 58-22 and lead the AL in runs scored.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Just a quick thought for anyone who was watching the Cub series and posting stuff like “ Losing two games to this awful team is inexcusable!” Well, it’s all relative. Let’s just look at our main wild card rivals just yesterday: Cleveland lost two to the Tigers, Toronto lost 5-1 to an Oakland team that’s like 90 games under .500 and Tampa got two hits off of a team that had to pitch Cutter Crawford etc. yes, the Red Sox have real weaknesses. So does every other team except theYankees and Houston. And on their websites they are probably also bitching about the manager, general manager, awful at bats, moronic base running etc. good teams lose to bad teams. I mean the Pirates swept the Dodgers in Dodger stadium this year
Thank you for this. The Red Sox aren't lucky to have 45 wins right now. They're right where they ought to be, on pace for 90-91 wins, in the mix with a bunch of other good but flawed teams. I think because we so closely follow the Red Sox, we have a tendency to be myopic about the league in general.
 

effectivelywild

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Seriously.

I'm surrounded by Yankees fans and I feel like all I hear about is how they struggle with Houston or the fact that they're hitting .238 as a team, nevermind that they're 58-22 and lead the AL in runs scored.
I'd hope that they would also bitch about how the team plays well during the regular season but folds in the playoffs.
 

Rovin Romine

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I think it's time to bump this thread.

Since the last substantive posting in late June/early July, the Sox have not done very well.

On July 4, they stood at 45-35, good for the 3rd best record in the AL (and the WC lead). After that date they went 3-11, falling to the lower middle portion of the WC scrum, although they're within 3 games of the leading WC team.

Key Injuries:
6/7 Enrique Hernandez 60-day IL (backdated), hip​
7/2 Rich Hill, 15-day IL, knee sprain​
7/5 Michael Wacha, 15-day IL, shoulder soreness​
7/7 Tyler Danish, 15-day IL, forearm strain​
7/9 Connor Seabold, 15-day IL, forearm strain​
7/9 Christian Arroyo, 10-day IL, groin​
7/13 Matt Strahm, 15-day IL, wrist bruise​
7/13 Trevor Story, 10-day IL, hand bruise​
7/19 Chris Sale, 15-day IL, broken finger (likely out for season.)​
7/23 Devers, 10-day IL, hamstring​

So technically, they're in it, but may not be for long. Much depends on who they get back and how effective they are.

Edited.
 
Last edited:

Ale Xander

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They need to play RFsnyder everyday and get a platoon partner for JBJ for starters