How to get back in this thing

Red(s)HawksFan

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But, baseball is kind of dumb if a .491 team is a legit playoff team, no?
Kind of a false premise, no? No one is saying "legit playoff team" yet. Just a contender. A team not out of the race by any stretch. A .491 team now could well be a .530 team (85-77) by the time the season wraps up. As has been pointed out, teams have won divisions and World Series with similar records, even before the advent of wildcards.
 

BroodsSexton

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Well they aren't a playoff team yet, but no not really. When 40% of your league makes the playoffs it seems logical that a .491 team would be in the mix 1/3rd of the way through the season. And that 40% is still the lowest of any of the 4 major leagues. It's still pretty unlikely that an 80 win team would actually make the playoffs after 162 games, but they should certainly still be in contention at this point.
Kind of a false premise, no? No one is saying "legit playoff team" yet. Just a contender. A team not out of the race by any stretch. A .491 team now could well be a .530 team (85-77) by the time the season wraps up. As has been pointed out, teams have won divisions and World Series with similar records, even before the advent of wildcards.
That’s fair. Optimistic, I suppose, but fair enough.
 

tims4wins

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Sox now have the 3rd best run differential in the AL. The record is what it is, but I wouldn't have a problem with the 3rd best team by run differential making the playoffs.

Still not even 1/3 of the way through the season.

Oh and the Sox run differential (+36) is basically the same as the 3 WC teams combined (+37).

Through 1/3 of the season, the Sox seem as deserving / dangerous as any of the other WC teams.

Edit: Sox pythag is 30-23, .566 or a 91.7 win team
 

Rovin Romine

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Sox now have the 3rd best run differential in the AL. The record is what it is, but I wouldn't have a problem with the 3rd best team by run differential making the playoffs.

Still not even 1/3 of the way through the season.

Oh and the Sox run differential (+36) is basically the same as the 3 WC teams combined (+37).

Through 1/3 of the season, the Sox seem as deserving / dangerous as any of the other WC teams.

Edit: Sox pythag is 30-23, .566 or a 91.7 win team
That's essentially what they were last year. Individual player performances (and the team record) are going to go up and down over the season, depending on the quality of competition they face. But duplicating last year does not seem a huge stretch to me.

I think the key difference is going to be the back end of the rotation. If Wacha and Hill keep up credible performances as a bridge to Sale/Paxton, we'll have many chances to win games. If they falter (and/or are pulled early and the bullpen deteriorates), we're in a different boat.

Likewise, the offense seems to teeter on being long or short. Against the Oakland staff, we've seen it go long - the bottom of the lineup contributing and keeping the line moving. Earlier in the season we've seen the effect of a block of near-auto-outs against tougher staffs. So again, the continued performance of the 5-7 hitters are going to be key.
 

simplicio

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5IP starters: Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha
middle relief: Hill, Pivetta, Houck, Paxton
8th inning: Schreiber, Robles
closer: Whitlock
If May-June Pivetta is the real deal, he's got a a starting slot for sure. Don't think Wacha's numbers will hold up for the full season, but if Sale comes back diminished I'm not sure I want him starting either; he's been inconsistent at best in the postseason to begin with. Eo/Pivetta/???
 

amfox1

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If May-June Pivetta is the real deal, he's got a a starting slot for sure. Don't think Wacha's numbers will hold up for the full season, but if Sale comes back diminished I'm not sure I want him starting either; he's been inconsistent at best in the postseason to begin with. Eo/Pivetta/???
I'm trying to project Sept/Oct, not May/June. Pivetta may be one of our top three starters at the end of the year, but in a best-of-three series he may fit best as a bridge from the starter to Whitlock in one of the games.
 

simplicio

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Not sure I follow your logic there. I want our three best/most consistently good starters starting.
 

mfried

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If May-June Pivetta is the real deal, he's got a a starting slot for sure. Don't think Wacha's numbers will hold up for the full season, but if Sale comes back diminished I'm not sure I want him starting either; he's been inconsistent at best in the postseason to begin with. Eo/Pivetta/???
Sale may end up being the most expensive closer ever.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not sure I follow your logic there. I want our three best/most consistently good starters starting.
Absolutely. And based on what we've seen so far, Whitlock is one of those starters, not a closer. People need to stop trying to make fetch happen. It's not going to happen.
 

BaseballJones

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If May-June Pivetta is the real deal, he's got a a starting slot for sure. Don't think Wacha's numbers will hold up for the full season, but if Sale comes back diminished I'm not sure I want him starting either; he's been inconsistent at best in the postseason to begin with. Eo/Pivetta/???
Well we aren’t going to get THIS Pivetta all season long. Because THIS Pivetta is Uber dominant and he’s just not that good. But is he capable of being a guy who puts up a 3.50 era the rest of the way? Yeah I think so.
 

tims4wins

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At the 1/3 point, they are exactly .500.

More importantly, they are alone in the 3rd WC spot.

Wonder what SJH’s alter ego at the Sons of Dallas McPherson have to say about the Halos’ historically awful collapse.
 

Rovin Romine

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Trending in the right direction. . .3-0 thusfar brings them to .500.
If the Sox become miraculously red-hot (e.g., "Story - The Sequel") and go 10-0, they'll stand at 34-27, and a 90 win target (likely a solid postseason chance) in the remaining 101 games would require 56 wins (.554):
10-0 - .554
9-1 - .564
8-2 - .574
7-3 - .584
6-4 - .594
5-5 - .604
4-6 - .614
3-7 - .624
2-8 - .634
1-9 - .644
0-10 - .654


This is the set for the more modest 87 win target, which is maybe? a 50% chance of making the postseason. Hard to factor as more teams will be trying to win late in the season:
10-0 - .525
9-1 - .535
8-2 - .545
7-3 - .555
6-4 - .564
5-5 - .574
4-6 - .584
3-7 - .594
2-8 - .604
1-9 - .614
0-10 - .624
 

Remagellan

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At the 1/3 point, they are exactly .500.

More importantly, they are alone in the 3rd WC spot.

Wonder what SJH’s alter ego at the Sons of Dallas McPherson have to say about the Halos’ historically awful collapse.
He's probably saying that the Angels are done, and that hypothetical person is as wrong about that as SJH was about the Sox. Still a lot of season left for both teams.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well I guess they’re right back in it, yeah?
Safe to say. We should enjoy the moment.

Looking forward, the club is going to have to play at a decent clip to make the post-season. Right now there's still 4 other teams within a handful of wins of their own .500 record, and the schedule isn't balanced. Every win still matters.
 

BostonJamie

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Angels have been an enigma for a long time. Two of baseballs most marketable players has done nothing for them from a “getting to the post-season” standpoint. Let’s take it 1 series at a time, but Angels are in free fall fright now.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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He's probably saying that the Angels are done, and that hypothetical person is as wrong about that as SJH was about the Sox. Still a lot of season left for both teams.
Taking victory laps that a team with a $200 million payroll and is paying luxury tax is finally, after 54 games, at the .500 mark?

Are you fucking serious?

They have played well below expectations this year and it took a major run against lousy teams to get themselves out of the historically awful start they had.

They haven’t accomplished a damn thing yet and they will fully admit that.
 

YTF

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Taking victory laps that a team with a $200 million payroll and is paying luxury tax is finally, after 54 games, at the .500 mark?

Are you fucking serious?

They have played well below expectations this year and it took a major run against lousy teams to get themselves out of the historically awful start they had.

They haven’t accomplished a damn thing yet and they will fully admit that.
"Still a lot of season left for both teams" isn't quite a victory lap.
 

Remagellan

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Taking victory laps that a team with a $200 million payroll and is paying luxury tax is finally, after 54 games, at the .500 mark?

Are you fucking serious?

They have played well below expectations this year and it took a major run against lousy teams to get themselves out of the historically awful start they had.

They haven’t accomplished a damn thing yet and they will fully admit that.
Victory lap? What about the phrase "still a lot of season left for both teams" do you seem to not be able to comprehend?

Nothing is decided this early in the season. We can still overtake the Yankees for the division lead, that's how much season is left. Is that likely? No, but with this much season left, anything is possible.
 

tims4wins

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Like seven mentions directed towards me in five minutes once they reached .500.

I guess people really love mediocrity round these parts. FFS.
It’s more that you declared the season over at 10-19 and a few weeks later they’re in a playoff spot. So really, whatever happens from this point forward, you were proven wrong.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It’s more that you declared the season over at 10-19 and a few weeks later they’re in a playoff spot. So really, whatever happens from this point forward, you were proven wrong.
Yay? They’re finally .500, which took until June. No one would have accepted that on Opening Day. The season has been dissappoiting by any reasonable standard.

The real issue is that people’s fee fees got hurt because it was noted that they were badly built and prepared for the season as evidenced by their worst start since 1966. Screaming “you were wrong!” three months later when they finally got to .500 is hardly unexpected but shows just how low expectations have gone. I was wrong. You want a cookie or something?

If this team ever gets to 10 games over you guys can throw them a parade.
 

tims4wins

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Yay? They’re finally .500, which took until June. No one would have accepted that on Opening Day. The season has been dissappoiting by any reasonable standard.

The real issue is that people’s fee fees got hurt because it was noted that they were badly built and prepared for the season as evidenced by their worst start since 1966. Screaming “you were wrong!” three months later when they finally got to .500 is hardly unexpected but shows just how low expectations have gone. I was wrong. You want a cookie or something?

If this team ever gets to 10 games over you guys can throw them a parade.
I don’t think anyone is disappointed that they are currently in a playoff spot. Except you
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I don’t think anyone is disappointed that they are currently in a playoff spot.
Lol what happened to “plenty of the season yet to go?” You can’t have it both ways.

I’m pretty sure there are plenty of people disappointed that they’ve struggled for long stretches of the season so far and that they’ve yet to beat good teams with any consistency yet. Not a lot has gone according to plan so far expect finally stating to beat crappy teams a bit more often.
 

YTF

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Yay? They’re finally .500, which took until June. No one would have accepted that on Opening Day. The season has been dissappoiting by any reasonable standard.

The real issue is that people’s fee fees got hurt because it was noted that they were badly built and prepared for the season as evidenced by their worst start since 1966. Screaming “you were wrong!” three months weeks later when they finally got to .500 is hardly unexpected but shows just how low expectations have gone. I was wrong. You want a cookie or something?

If this team ever gets to 10 games over you guys can throw them a parade.
No, like anyone else it’s more enjoyable to see them win.

It’s lame to see people taking a victory lap over the most meager of tasks.
No one's taking a victory lap and speaking of people getting their "fee fees" hurt....
 

tims4wins

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Lol what happened to “plenty of the season yet to go?” You can’t have it both ways.

I’m pretty sure there are plenty of people disappointed that they’ve struggled for long stretches of the season so far and that they’ve yet to beat good teams with any consistency yet. Not a lot has gone according to plan so far expect finally stating to beat crappy teams a bit more often.
There have been ups and downs, disappointments at both the individual and team level. Absolutely. But if you ask the question of are you disappointed overall with the Red Sox as of today… I am not, as I see far more reason for optimism than pessimism
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Lol what happened to “plenty of the season yet to go?” You can’t have it both ways.

I’m pretty sure there are plenty of people disappointed that they’ve struggled for long stretches of the season so far and that they’ve yet to beat good teams with any consistency yet. Not a lot has gone according to plan so far expect finally stating to beat crappy teams a bit more often.
Is there not room for both disappointment that they started poorly and optimism that they're playing better over the last 3-4 weeks? It's a long fucking season no matter how you look at it. No one should be sky high because they're at .500, but no one should have been acting like the world was fucking ending because they were 10-19 either.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I’ll add substance to this:

- they’ve finally started beating the hell out of bad teams. That’s what good teams should be doing. They dismantled Oakland this weekend and that’s a good sign.

- they need to figure out bullpen roles. Barnes is likely done as an effective pitcher, but who gets the 8th and 9th in close games is still up in the air. I read today the Yankees are undefeated this year when taking a lead into the 8th while the Sox have like 15 blown saves. That has to be addressed.

- Is Franchy for real? I’d like to think so but AAAA guys are so tough to evaluate. If he can stick he’d be a huge boon.
 

scottyno

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Taking victory laps that a team with a $200 million payroll and is paying luxury tax is finally, after 54 games, at the .500 mark?

Are you fucking serious?

They have played well below expectations this year and it took a major run against lousy teams to get themselves out of the historically awful start they had.
They were expected to win about 85 games this year meaning their expected record after 54 games would be about 28-26.

"well below expectations" is an interesting way to describe being one game behind pace.
 

BringBackMo

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The Red Sox are not simply beating up on bad teams. As part of this run, the Red Sox in the past two weeks or so have taken 2 of 3 from Houston and 2 of 3 from the White Sox. Those are not bad teams.

The 2022 Red Sox were clearly constructed during the off-season to compete for a wild card spot, not for a championship. This is not revised analysis based on how the season has unfolded. I can point to many, many posts from multiple posters making this point, both during the off-season itself and once the season started.

Bloom and the Sox are playing the long game. They are building the farm system while fielding a competitive but not championship-caliber major league team. At some point, probably starting next year, but we can’t know for sure exactly when, they will go all-in for championships. Again, this was discussed many, many times during the off-season.

Some people here REALLY do not like that strategy. If you’re one of those people, you’re going to want Bloom fired. Fortunately, that’s not going to happen.